exchange where you are, carl. >> always night to have you here, scott. >> in your house. >>> and rick santelli "the santelli exchange." >> hi, carl. a lot of discussion going on about the federal reserve, european central bank. the bank of japan, and with just cause. the conversation with regard to the u.s., a lot of it isn't so much about what's going on with interest rates, although there's a lot of discussion there, but it's more about the longevity of this unloved historic rally in the equity markets, and one of the discussions i was involved in yesterday was looking at the equity markets in the context of the zero interest rate policy and in the spring of next year, does it end in the fall or does it end ever? keep in mind all of you savers out there, that i don't look for historic overnight fed funds rates to go back into the historic averages. i just think that a 1 or 1.25 or 1.5 fed funds rate gives the central bank some cushion, should things deteriorate in europe and become contagious with regard to recession. the federal reserve of the u.s. definitely is less involved in the kool-ai

. >>> rick santelli what are you watching today?rguments over the last several sessions, carl, that the u.s. treasury market is not taking into account better news. we could argue about durables, yet interest rates continues to move lower. is it a valid argument? we'll talk about the very strange, odd, even twilight zone world of the relative value trade, after the break. thank ythank you for defendiyour sacrifice. and thank you for your bravery. thank you colonel. thank you daddy. military families are uniquely thankful for many things, the legacy of usaa auto insurance can be one of them. if you're a current or former military member or their family, get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life. where the reward was that what if tnew car smelledit card and the freedom of the open road? a card that gave you that "i'm 16 and just got my first car" feeling. presenting the buypower card from capital one. redeem earnings toward part or even all of a new chevrolet, buick, gmc or cadillac - with no lim

interesting, too. >> definitely. >> julia boorstin in l.a. >>> rick santelli with "the santelli exchange >> hi, carl. just checking out the dow, still holding on to some gains completely not white washing out yesterday. a lot of things going on, you know, and i've had great trained discussions with traders on the way home and will kind of re-create some of those conversations. we're going to look at all of the major areas, on treasury, been a lot of debate as to, will zero interest rate policy be pulled forward? meaning, are we going to end zero rates sooner that are ran late jer many point to what's going on with ten year rates dropping, challenging the low yield, close of the year and doing that today. that is telling us, no. to pulling forward. sorry. at least in my opinion, i don't agree. once again, we talk about the yield curve. okay? the yield curve is basically looking at short rates going up and long rates going down. that's flattening. it's not that the low rates and the long end are telling us anything about zerp. i contend it's telling us about the relative strength of the ec

. >>> first, rick santelli what are you watching today? >> you know, i was there.ht out the consumer confident number this morning. the best number i believe sis, what, october of '07? and the market's didn't move much in the interest rate complex. but i think i have the answer as to why. just think -- what happened not too far after october of '07? we're going to discuss that. after the break. [bell rings] ♪ time and sales data. split-second stats. ♪ its so close to the options floor, you'll bust your brain-box. all on thinkorswim, from td ameritrade. virtually all your important legal matters in just minutes. now it's quicker and easier for you to start your business, protect your family, and launch your dreams. at legalzoom.com we put the law on your side. this guy could take down your entire company.h? stay with me. on thursday a hamster video goes online. on friday it goes viral - a network choking phenomenon. why do you care? he's on the same cloud as your business. the more hits he gets, the slower your business may get. do you want to share your cloud with

built for business. >>> let's send it over to rick santelli for the santelli exchange this morning. rick. >> good morning, karl. thank you for taking the time, peter. >> good morning. >> listen, when i looked at your comments regarding stanley fisher on the same page as janet yellen thinking the low labor force participation rate's going to reverse and those issues are cyclical, i have a hard time agreeing with him, and i also wonder how long is the time line before they admit it's structural? your thoughts? >> multiple years into the expansion and labor force expansion rate at the lowest level since 1978. for them to continue to think all the sudden people come back with no change in fiscal policy, no change in social spending policy, it's very unlikely. as we saw in today's job openings, the demand for labor continues to improve. it just supply is not meeting the demand so you get a continued drop in the unemployment rate, and labor market tighter than the fed thinks so yellen and fisher, i think, are falling way behind the eight ball in terms of the reality of the data and reality

looking forward to all that. >>> meantime, rick santelli and "the santelli exchange" as the dollar ands, rick, all the news this morning. >> absolutely. and you know, kelly, i find it fascinating. we talk about huge markets. you know, a couple always come to mind. u.s. treasury market, global foreign exchange market. these are huge, deep -- deep -- markets. but yet the notion, and i think it's probably because most analysts and kmicht economists purveyors of the future have had the market long looking to sell treasuries for higher interest rates. we don't want to go into it on this exchange. around of counter intuitive reasons why it's occurring. in the end i can't imagine that tens of thousands of global investors holding literally, literally, hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars of positions are all wrong. and they've been wrong for years. but we need to acknowledge, on a day like today, you see strong housing data, what happened? yields did move up in the ten year a bit. moved um towards the 240 area. now, granted, maybe this time of horsepower in numbers, good numbers.

meantime, data, and rick santelli is here with that. rick?st of the second quarter data, wholesale inventories for june, up only three tenths, looked for a bigger number in last month's half of 1%, last month's drop of three-tenths. up what we were looking for. last month unrevised. inventories key, revisions second quarter gdp. april on inventories is 1%. last month, change now to only up three tenths, was five, and the last read up three-tenths. my guess is you'll see a little taken away from the 4% handle we have on second quarter gdp. back to you, carl. >> rick, thank you very much. >>> u.s. air strikes underway in iraq. president launched a new air campaign three years after u.s. forces left that country. the pentagon confirms that fa 18 aircraft dropped two 500-pound bombs to defend the city, and we are in washington, d.c. this morning with more. good morning. >> reporter: morning, again, carl. we got word within the past hour or so that the first air strikes as part of the campaign took place. we knew overnight that the humanitarian ai

viewers; go to ziprecruiter.com/offer2. >>> dow's down 27 on friday before a long weekend, and rick santelli. >> hey, carl. you know, chicago pmi day, alice can give us all the detail, and for those of you who are not as familiar with chicago purchasing surveys, you ought to be, unlike ism, it includes both manufacturing and service, 60/40, correct? >> that's correct. >> 60% services and 40 % manufacturing. chicago pmi, their products are not only in chicago, are they? >> that's right, rick, a multinational group of people, the products are all over the world. we certainly had oo strong report, rick, 63 best since may, a strong push in production up 23 preponderate 3, biggest jump on record. a push in new orders, and moats of the data here takes us back to where we were in may erasing the decline in july putting us on trend to where we were in the second quarter, which was very strong. now, if you want to look at the data, rick, we had a huge prush in production. why? demand is there. there's a push in new orders, guys got the stuff out the door, and they were trying to work off the big push

rick santelli is tracking the action. rick? >> well, thank you, sue. you know, if you look at a chart of intraday tens, somewhat stochastic. should we settle? on a yield with the 242 handle or higher? actually it would be a one-week high yield close, believe it or not. a lot of talk today about the last fed meeting, because of the information we get coming out this afternoon, but here's something counter intuitive. let's look at the main three sovereigns. let's look at ten-user. left, and look at guilts in the uk. all the high yields were basically made on those days. which really begs the question. if the fed and other central banks refuse to normalize policy, it certainly doesn't seem like a big banner for successful economies. maybe that is the interpretation. tyler, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much. rick santelli from chicago. >>> pay to play, the nfl reportedly wants top musical acts to pay for the privilege of performing at the super bowl halftime show. stroke of genius? or major fumble? >>> plus how many app.s do you have on your phone?

rick santelli with "the santelli exchange." rick? >> hi, carl.ok at the board i see the stock market is at least referenced by the dow, popped up towards 74, positive on the day. and while that went on, of course a huge sell-off pushing yields up to 22338. ints tra-of-tra day, down to a 234 yield. the question everybody's asks, were we see a 2% on tens? many think it's possible. i'm in that camp. last may we went from 160 to 260 as i talk and earlier with jim beaung bian bianco, seems that the last war many economists want to fight. we did the move that made investors nervous, the end was near, whether looking at 0 interest rate or specifically last year the taper going unimpeded until we get to the end of the year and it's done. that seems to be the case. now, dax. talked about the dax. many times. today the dax intraday did breach 9,000. hasn't closed under 9000 since a couple of weeks before christmas. more important, though it isn't even that level. like the ten year, like the guilt, if you look at a couple of year chart of the dax, the guilt

back to you, tyler and sarah. >>> thanks very much, rick santelli. do you think that mcdonald's plans to put coffee in super markets will work or fail? tyler thinks it would work. go to cnbc.com/vote and weigh in. >>> and it's old-faced skeet shooting, except you're not shooting clay pigeons, but drone. think it will fly as a sport? we'll talk about that as well, next. >>> shares of seaworld are moving larger. weaker than expected earns last week on falling attendance as investors sell one organization is buying, and that's peta, people for the ethical treatment of animals. they found more shares in order to retain the minimum investments, and submit formal shareholder questions that criticize the way the company does business. seaworld has come under intense criticism for the way they housed their killer whales. >> interesting twist. thanks, dom. >>> spending their rally, the dow and s&p up for a fourth time in five days. the dow with the biggest gain in four months. mary thompson joins me on the floor of the new york stock exchange. you should come

rick santelli is at the cme. what does it look like? >> we gave this auction a c-minus. it's $27 billion three-year notes. the yield at auction 0.924. the one was offered at 92.5. here's where it lost its good grade. the bid to cover was just over three times over subscribe to. well over the ten auction average. the continue directs and directs were very close to the auction averages, but at a one-year low, since june of last year since it was that low, a c-minus to start out. tomorrow we go to the long ends, and we'll get more clues about the markets. tyler, sue, back to you. >> thank you, ricky. see you again in just a bit. realtors sending out today on the housing picture. hi, diana. hi, sue, prices too high too fast. we've been warning and now seeing the results. home sales are down and prices are finally taking a hit. the realtor are in request the q2 numbers. down 4.5% from a years ago inventories jumped up 6.5%, all of that is weighing on home prices. the realtors record that the median price rose to $212,400. that's up 4.4% annually, but that is just half of the

let's check -- on the back of the five-year with rick santelli.basically started a baker's dozen. . this is the one you have to pay attention to. at the lowest levels in pretty close to a year. simon, all yours. >>> facebook's sheryl sandberg is probably the most high-protile chief operating officer out there. why are more and more companies say, no thanks, we don't need a c.o.o. yeah more? what's behind the growing trend? that's next. from 2000 to 2011, on average 17 manufacturers a day shut down in america. there's no reason we can't manufacture in the united states. here at timbuk2, we make more than 70,000 custom bags a year, right here in san francisco. we knew we needed to grow internationally, we also knew that it was much more complicated to deal with. i can't imagine having executed what we've executed without having citi side by side with us. their global expertise was critical to our international expansion into asia, into europe and into canada. so today, a customer can walk into our store in singapore, will design a custom bag and tha

to the interest rate futures and rick santelli. >> hi, sue, listen, viewers, listeners, pretend thatse aren't charts of interest rates but charts that you're long and be objective. you can see that we're about to make a new yield low close for the year, all we have to do is settle where we are now. but let's open the chart to the two-year, yes we have a new lower yield. this chart does not look good. and if it was a stock i don't think you would be wanting to buy it. it doesn't end there. let's look at what's going on with regard to uk, look at their intraday. they closed on 2.48%. it's like hanging off on ski cliff. let's look at the bund. two-year chart, it doesn't look as aggressive because these-year-olds are the lowest ever in the euro zone. of course when it comes to what's going on with equities here's the canary in the gold mine. so similar to the other patterns, we want to pay close attention to all of these charts and even though i don't have a chart of the euro and the dollar, you know the story there, euro isn't being played out well. the benefit to the dollar. >> rick, t

>> interesting data points to say the least. >>> meantime, get to the cme group, rick santelli is therep "the santelli exchange." hey, rick. >> hi. and thank you. you know, jackson hole coming up at the end of the week and some of the moves i've seen, i'm not sure it's a coincidence that for the week the s&p is up roughly 30 points. the dow roughly up 300 points. i do believe that from the benefactor's side of the ledger, that central banks indeed are the best thing that the equity markets have going. now, let's put an asterisk there. good things are going on in the u.s. economy and i continue to say that we have one powerful mule in the u.s. economy. it's a shame we have so many saddle bagging weighing it down. having said that, i think that some of the strategies that central banks put forth for requirements to normalize policy in my opinion, i think they're hiding behind the goal post movements as they change the requirements for normalization. it wasn't that long ago that ben bernanke was talking about kind of a symmetrical approach. we weak data, strong data, warrant duff approache

to rick santelli in chicago. rick? >> hello there, carl.l, you know, we always wonder exactly why yields are stubbornly low, and let's not even talk about the adjustment from may of last year, where the market really did adjust for the end of quantitative easing, and maybe there's a similar adjustment or more similar adjustments based on the end of zero interest rate policy. but we had some significant clues today, because we had a retail sales number that was pretty flat, and interest rates moved down several basis points. but it's even more than that. how many times can we talk about retail sales but we talk about it in the seasonally adjusted fashion it's released? and i can understand that, but there's another way to look at retail sales. inflation adjusted. here's what the st. louis fed comes in handy and i urge all viewers and listeners to visit they are website and play with a function faumaled "fred." the federal reserve economic data, and what you can do is tweet the date fra its seasonally adjusted form and inkornt other things, l

. >>> okay, well, sticking with the hard money theme, let's head out to chicago to rick santelli for a check on corn and wheat prices. and the reason we're bringing this up, because we're hearing, rick, about corn being so abundant at the moment that farmers may be even selling it at a loss. >> yeah, and it's not only that, it's the corn from last growing season's still hanging around. a lot of farmers put it in their silos. they're going to have to either move it to elevators they pay to make room for the new crop, and not only that, at basically the lowest prices in corn and wheat since 2010, you know, a lot of farmers didn't buy crop insurance, and they have to pay, but it's a pretty good deal, considering, and they could have insured their production 70%, 75% of their production to prices pegged before the growing season started, which obviously are higher today, so there's a lot of moving parts and it isn't only the u.s., mandy. china, i mean, all over the world, we have an abundance of grain. i never think that's a problem, and i think farming is a difficult profession, and they

rick santelli here.l guest today, former head of the european central bank, jean-claude trichet. mr. trichet, thank you so much for taking the time this morning. >> it's a great pleasure to be with you, great pleasure. >> thank you. listen, one week ago, you were quoted as saying the following. i'd like to read it and put it up on the screen. the fact that we are still in post-crisis is a major challenge and appears to be confirmed by the fact that central banks are still engaged in measures of extreme importance, certainly in the uk, japan and europe. therefore, the private sector is still not functioning normally. mr. trichet, my question to you is, how do we assess what normal is post-crisis? >> well, again, i think that we would be in a normal situation where it would be normal that the major central banks would not be in an extraordinary mode. so i have to say i take very positively the latest figures in the u.s. and the fact that it confirms that tapering will, of course, be achieved and then when

is with the santelli exchange. rickorter: well, thanks, carl. you know, i talked about the funnel. and i do see that there's going to be a quickened pace. many markets moving in extreme fashion. and i do think that the one to pay closest attention to, no surprise, is the u.s. if you look at that s&p chart, the fact that we're clearing 2,000 with the type of momentum we have is hugely significant. so let's forget about whether it should be here. let's forget debate how it got here. let's just stick with the charts a minute and while i'm talking, i want you to see a one-year chart of that s&p and then look at the dow and realize that the dow is pretty much the same pattern. a little less developed, and it hasn't really kind of had that final wave. but now look at the dax. okay? the dax is coming at us from a much lower level as is the cac. we understand the dynamics between the german and the french economy and actually everybody else in eurozone is huge. but yet the markets in all equities share the same dynamic. it's th

rick santelli is back to check the currency market for us. >> hi, sue. absolutely 5s 160 unchanged on the day. 30s 323 unchanged on the day, but all obviously down for the week. see that chart of the s&p versus the ten-year? certainly we could debate as to what moved the stock market. early it looked like it would be a continuation of maybe the way the dax is trading. they've stabilized a bit, but you know, the white noise of all of these stories and tweets and everything that's moving the equity markets will get filtered through the 244. that's the big marginal line for the weekly for folks to pay attention to. as you look at the chart going back, you can see how significant this level truly is, and of course we don't want to diminish the dax, trading under 9,000, sue, but also on thursday, we get a look at gdp and europe. that's where the meat is on this day in terms of significant market moves. tyler, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much. the world seemingly a mess, sunni terrorists are on the loose in iraq and syria and lebanon. they are surroun

. >>> first, rick santelli is always focused. what's he got his eye on today? >> definitely keep our eye on jackson hole. i heard somebody at jackson hole was making fun of technical analysis. so -- what we're going to do is, we're going to compare technical analysis to monetary policy. what gives the best signals? get ready to rumble, after the break! ♪ [ girl ] my mom, she makes underwater fans that are powered by the moon. ♪ she can print amazing things, right from her computer. [ whirring ] [ train whistle blows ] she makes trains that are friends with trees. ♪ my mom works at ge. ♪ ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] during the cadillac summer's best event, lease this 2014 ats for around $299 a month. hurry in -- this exceptional offer ends soon. ♪ hurry in -- this exceptional offer ends soon. it can help your business save money. false. the truth is when you compare our fastest internet to the fastest dsl from the phone company, comcast business gives you more for your money. why pay more for less? call today for a low price on speeds up to 150mbps. and find out more a

over to the cme group, rick santelli with a special edition of the santelli exchange. est is the chairman ceo of abbott labs, mil miles white, thank you for the time. >> good too sew ewe, rick. >> there's a multitude of issues with inversions, and simplest place to start, what is the truth about inversions as you see it? in other words, what are the conceptions you'd like to underscore? >> you know,ic i think rhetorics flying out there, misrepresented. people think somehow companies are dodging tax responsibilities. they are not. before inversion, they paid a tax rate in the united states, pay the same tax rates in the united states after inversion, pay the same tax rates overseas and in all countries around the world before and after inversion. what changes is if they bring back overseas' profits today, they pay another tax. >> okay. stopping there. you're talking about the repatriation of foreign profits? >> correct, correct. when you bring back foreign profits to the u.s. today -- >> nothing else changes, pay the same tax rate in the netherlands -- >> correct. >> pay

>> tyson. >> good to know. >>> which in with rick santelli at "the santelli exchange." >> hi, carl. a time more fundamentals than ever before, more layers of numberance and economic data and revisions and changing the way data is calculated, more countries with economic hoar power entering into that fundamental data fray, how is one to keep up? i know there are many out there every time you talk technical analysis they say voodoo. there are many reasons to think. let's rephrase this. i said hft. hup to be careful on certain aspects of different types of trades within that category, because their track records have been so correct for so long defies true trade, yet i can point to technicians that i've known for decades who have maybe a 65% ratio. not like a 95%. but that's truly incredible. they don't pay attention to fundamentals. the rationale, i think a good foundation that human behavior not only tends to be repeddive, live, look at a chart. all the fundamentals melt away. you're left with how people behave. a lot of people, a lot of investors, who know more than you earlier than

i also know that some key technical levels may have been -- but rick santelli, what are you hearing in the bond pits? and what is the reaction in treasuries? >> most traders this morning were looking to see if it had enough sell-off horsepower to move yields clouder to 255. look at the intraday chart. we were somewhat headed there. we had very strong data, 8 1/2 year best in terms of nonmanufacturing ism, but it all changed. look at the charts dipping. traders down here are looking at stocks. every time stocks get iffy, more important, they do agree with the technical nape of the sell-off in equities. they have their own technical area. boy, we've been knocking on the door of this. if we go through there, stocks will change and pay attention to dropping interest rates later in the day. >> that's the question i would have, rick. art cashin has been around forever and knows everything about the market. would a technical drop in stocks also move the bond market as well? >> lynn, any drop in stocks most likely is going to bring in buys, especially when you see the dow is under 16,5. becaus

. >>> rick santelli what are you watching today? >> today, foreign exchange. the dollar bulls are coming out of the woodwork and my contention is, shouldn't be bullish, shut the bear. making dough. look at technical moving forward and also because of simon, going to talk about thursday's gdp number in germany. tune in after the break. collection is here.mmer ♪ ♪ during the cadillac summer's best event, lease this all new 2014 cts for around $459 a month or purchase with 0% apr and make this the summer of style. who found a magic seashell. it told him what was happening on the trading floor in real time. ♪ the shell brought him great fame. ♪ but then, one day, he noticed that everybody could have a magic seashell. [ indistinct talking ] [ male announcer ] right there in their trading platform. ♪ so the magic shell went back to being a...shell. get live squawks right in your trading platform with thinkorswim from td ameritrade. we're changing the way we do business, with startup ny.atform we've created tax free zones throughout the state. and startup ny companie

thoughts from rick santelli standing by at the cme group in chicago. u watch a chart like that, what goes through your mind? >> well, a lot of things go through my mind. the first thing that goes through my mind being an ex trader, that markets have a predisposition to ge where they want to go, and things like geopolitics usually change the timeline. they don't really change the issues of the marketplace. what i mean is, here's a chart going back to mid-2012 for ten-year yields. it's important, believe me, art cashin is the man and always going to be support, but if you draw the main trend traders have been looking at from mid-20127 top spring of 2013. that line comes in slightly over 2%. when we broke under that significant low yield of the year created from may 22, to 244, there isn't sbag port until you gelt to about 2%, which is where that line comes in. the reason i bring this up is, yeah, we're going to pause at areas 236, 232, maybe around 225, big psychological area, but the point is, that year to date total return for ten year as of yesterday's

speaking of which, rick santelli, how do you say sell jaf in portuguese? sell-off in portuguese? oy vey! that's how we used to say it. and good technical analysis. are you haves glazes over eyes? if you are, find out exactly what i mean by that, and show up after the break. if energy could come from anything?. or if power could go anywhere? or if light could seek out the dark? what would happen if that happens? anything. starts at 6:30 a.m. - on the (vo) rush hounose.und here but for me, it starts with the opening bell. and the rush i get, lasts way more than an hour. (announcer) at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. that's why we've built powerful technology to alert you to your next opportunity. because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours. yyyup. with xfinity internet soyour family can use all their devices at once. works anywhere in the house. even in the garage. max what's going on? we're doing a tech startup. we're going public! [cheering] the fastest in-home wifi for your entire family. only from xfin fit can help youramily. busine

stocks with the dow down 50, over to the cme group, rick santelli with "the santelli exchange" in chicago> hi. thank you, and i would like to welcome our special guest, dr. vern smith. thank you for taking the time this tuesday morning, sir. >> it's great to be here, and thank you for inviting me. >> listen, i really enjoyed your op-ed, discussing the hidden costs of bailouts, at time when we're all observing banco espirito in portugal we could debate, but in the end, it's more of the same. can you tell us what some of the hidden costs are and be cog sant of the fact the president before the recess, in an interview in the "economist" poked fun at titans of industry as to lingering complaints, but your op-ed seems to justify their complaints. can you explain? >> well, there's a hidden cost that people are not aware of. whenever incumbent investors and banks in the economy, wherever they are, if they are bailed out, if they are rescued then they get to share the return on new activity as it comes along. i like to use a, a comparison, an analog. henry ford started building a model t around 1

we are joined by rick santelli in chicago. rick? >> happy friday. thanks, david.g out with the european scene. remember, it's like the u.s. now. fundamentals take a backseat to market action, and, of course, referencing the spongy data from europe, germany, france in familiar, and so look at the bond over there, the bund, two-day, what's going on? couldn't breach the 1%. today, it did, obviously, yesterday, intraday, pay attention. remember, germany, two and three year instruments are in negative rate territory. look at the dax, look at the gdp comes out, it goes from 9150 to over 9300. intuitive. look at the five year back to the u.s. markets, look at the five year, the fulcrum of the yield curve, june 1st of this year, breaching levels on a closing yield basis, some of the lowest yield since may of this year. look at may of last year for 10 s and 30s, and we see it's a closing basis, lowest yield closes since june for the 10-year, may for the third year, and two-day of the euro versus the dollar, same dynamic of the stock market in germany. euro currency is buoy

bob pisani at the nyse and rick santelli joins us from chicago. bob, what's keeping us higher in markets today? are traders taking the glass half full view? >> yesterday we were run on not a lot of news. the bottom line, this is still the best place in the world to put money for the moment. earnings are still increasing although we still have hiccups, disappointment in retail is there. same thing happened again today. s&p 500 on the upside. i would note that futures moved earlier in the morning when vladimir putin gave a speech in crimea where it was viewed as somewhat conciliatory. futures moved up on that. we've been running on that all throughout the morning. let me show you, really tough times on a couple of things. besides disappointments with walmart, noodles and company, red robin, these are not mistakes, down almost 20%, both of them. disappointing earnings. but specifically talking about higher food costs as well. inflation starting to eat into the margins of some of these companies. we've seen it before with some of the pizza companies a

. >>> first, rick santelli in chicago, what are you watching today?'re going to, of course, be watching ten-year rates. we're going to be watching a bit on the foreign exchange side. and maybe most of all we're going to try to garner exactly what's up with the dollar. the big number for today, 57.6. you want to know what it is? you have to come back after the break. what if there was a credit card where the reward was that new car smell and the freedom of the open road? a card that gave you that "i'm 16 and just got my first car" feeling. presenting the buypower card from capital one. redeem earnings toward part or even all of a new chevrolet, buick, gmc or cadillac - with no limits. so every time you use it, you're not just shopping for goods. you're shopping for something great. learn more at buypowercard.com my motheit's delicious. toffee in the world. so now we've turned her toffee into a business. my goal was to take an idea and make it happen. i'm janet long and i formed my toffee company through legalzoom. i never really thought i would make mo

check in with rick santelli. >> hi, carl. like to work on old cars in my spare time and there are many issues where an old car will run good for a while, then bad, but it isn't consistent. the whole trick is to get the old car returning consistently well. well, when it comes to economies, there's very little difference. as a matter of fact, transition comes to mind, because much of the containsian central bank activity is trying to accomplish something that may be impossible, because the transmission of what they're trying to do to the end result, trying to create -- there's something broken there. and i think that is very significant. and back to the old car analogy. when i look at what's going on in the german economy, or the europe ozone in aggregate, i understand that much of the recent activity is being blamed on geopolitics. but like an old car if it was running better, the impact would be much less. look at the recent data. 2014. two quarters. 2013, 2012. going back in time and looking at some of the countries whose gd

. >>> first, rick santelli, we hope has no samurai sword what are you watching today?ord? it's like harrison ford in "raiders of the lost arc." sword comes out. doesn't matter when he shoots them. central banks are shooting big guns and the economies trying to fight them with swords. talk about low interest rates. how much good are they doing at this point and discuss a game. a game from the '70s and '80s. pacman, and how pacman might keep you on the right side of the interest rate market, all after the break. thank ythank you for defendiyour sacrifice. and thank you for your bravery. thank you colonel. thank you daddy. military families are uniquely thankful for many things, the legacy of usaa auto insurance can be one of them. if you're a current or former military member or their family, get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life. in today's market, a lot can happen in a second. with fidelity's guaranteed one-second trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 market centers to look for the best possible price, maybe even be

and rick santelli as well. ben willis, let's start with you on this crazy market day. is there any doubt now that this market is influenced greatly by geopolitics? >> i hate to start off this way, but i don't believe it's geopolitics. i think geopolitics is part of the fuel that's triggering the currency markets, which is really what's been driving the technical levels of this market. we hit 1,890 on the s&p futures this morning, a critical line that happened to be 4:00 a.m. before most of us were even up. but kelly and i were chatting the other day and i said that is the line we were most nervous about. we have been in these technical moves as far as the technicians who have quite frankly not been right all along for several months, but the last few days you've been chatting with art cashin, seeing these numbers. but i believe the trigger has been the currency moves more so than necessarily the geopolitical moves. >> let me push back a little bit. how do we explain, then, last night's big selloff in the asian markets when word got out about the president authorizing t

rick santelli with the santelli exchange. rick? >> reporter: thank you., served on the fed from '99 to 2004. so 13 years, bob. what do you see that's different with the janet yellen and even ben bernanke fed versus the fed you left before the crisis several years before the crisis? >> yeah, it will be almost -- it's almost ten years since i left, rick. back then, if you had told me that we had 4% gdp growth and 0% interest rate policy, i would have not believed you. it's sort of like the boiling frog. we made this transition so gradually, we don't quite realize how much has changed. >> reporter: i love your boiling frog analogy. let's leap forward 20 eyears. do you think that the books written about the federal reserve from the period of '07 to basically 2014, maybe 2015, is going to be a story about an institution that was a bit out of control with regard to the power that it saw, it needed to take, and its opinion as an institution during the credit-tight years of '07, '08 and part of '09, or is it going to be basically a manifesto of how the fed turned

let's go to chicago and rick santelli has the santelli exchange, hey, rick. >> hi, simon, watching the well. i want to welcome my guest, matt maley, and thank you for taking the time today. weigh in as we see the dollar strengthen, but really, really it's a story -- and look at the percentage of the dollar index, 57-plus percent, euro moving lower, the pound, even though there was reprieve today, basically close to the lowest level against the dollar since april, and your thoughts on foreign exchange and why this may be happening in front of jackson hole? >> well, you know, seeming to be everybody is in markets are are expecting a huge and even more dovish comment from yellen and the other central bank leaders around the world as they speak this weekend. markets at all-time highs. it's interesting you're seeing that the bond market is ticked back a little in the last few days. i think they are saying, you know, worried about that we're going to get a buy on rumors, sell the news type of thing no matter what they say, so you may see the stock market pull back a little bit. as for the do

rick santelli tracking the -- you probably -- >> yeah, well, i did hear, it's hard to argue its success. one thing i found interesting is you mentioned you would never envision the, helps that condition. but i would during as being a motivation for higher rates as well. if you look at a five-year. we've got half of that back. same phenomenon. down to about 230. if you look at the big chart. it hasn't been since june. we'll be back there for a while. here is something that doesn't add up. nene, it's still under a bit of pressure. that in the backyard of the european area, we wouldn't see more fx volatility regarding the headlines t see, back to you. >> let's talk more about that, because stocks have been lower. on art cashin is director. >> art, you know, i read your notes that you send me every day, thank you. you think it's going to come down to whether or not there were actual casualties as to how the market handicaps this? >> yeah, the traders are having a bit of a problem. the reason we are off the lows is that there's no clear statement coming out of russia. almost all the conversa

check the bond market with rick santelli. e lowest yield on the ten year in more than a year. what do you make of these developments today? >> first of all, the lowest yields going back to june or may for a long time. the low gleeld may of last year, 160. that out of the way, before any of the headlines hit, a 237, 238 yield. as a fixed income, former fixed income trader, i say 150 points off the highs in the dow and quick fashion, always worth five to six basis points in treasurer rirs. the risk offtrade, but real yes is what's geopolitics, and what is just the treasury market? and i think down here, here's the way they look at it. they believe considering we have an 18% total -- return for 30s this year, and for 10s a little over 8%, the dynamic in place. whatever global fundamental reason, the treasury market is not impressed with the global and u.s. economy. add in what happens when the stock market becomes pro active, and i think that's step two. what we've seen in action today. is certainly doesn't seem as though we're g

. >> thanks, the head to chicago now, rick santelli up in chicago. rick, ten-year, 237 is where i see it. >> yeah, yeah, year over year to date total return is approaching 8.5%, but, yeah, no, that was the wrong trade. 30-year bonds approaching 20%, but that was the wrong trade. tens minus twos, fives my news tens, and fives to 30s. first, flattest curves on ten minus twos in over a year, june of 2013, 14 months, december of 2008, fives versus tens, and january of 2009 for fives versus 30s. everything is consistent in the fixed income arena, whether it's flat or spongy rates. you want to get spperspective? take a view over the two-year charts. two-year ten year, certainly it just looks at that chart, hard not to argue we're not going to get closer to 2% or the bund will not spend more time under 1 %. the gilt over 2 .5%, but there's action on the right, 50 basis points, not seeing triple digit yields in japan soon, and last one, actions of foreign exchange, the ewe row versus the dollar fitting the pattern realm. right now, maybe we're doing better re

to rick santelli in chicago. good morning, rick. >> morning, where do we begin, carl? y to be back. why? on an intraday basis, took out the low close of the year, anyone who watches "the santelli exchange" may 28 th knows of the low, intraday traded through it, but it's the comp. look at the yield curve, 10st to 20s flattening again, eight basis points of the flattest at 13 and a half months. fives to 30s, roughly flat, but had brief steepening. that's reversed out. let's look at that five-year chart specifically to about mid-may. you see the effects. long end is going down faster, five-year still not breaking through some of the may low yes. let's look at june 1st of the last year of the ten year, closing below what we traded already, we'd copping back to second week of june. still now at 245 comping on the 28. look at boom yields, 109. look close. why? you've never seen them before. these are historic lows for boon yields, and we talked about europe, many times, gdp, bob mentioned it, italy, two quarters down in a row, tech anily recession, but the banks rewrite that

collect in with rick santelli and the santelli exchange. rick? >> thanks, carl., southwest securities, mark grand. thanks for taking time on his historic monday, relative to the equity markets. >> happy to be here with you, rick, as always. >> all right. listen, mark, we'll take a different tangent to this whole story. you know, as we look at the globe, and you always send me a lot of e-mails, write a lot of blogs about geopolitics and i see mr. hollande, french government dissolved his rating, 17%, isn't this one story globally? when there's no jobs, jobs, jobs and the economies are soft, soft, soft, tensions happen, whether it's world war i, ii, that's what much of the anxiety is borne of, is it not? >> it's jobs, rick, certainly and the quality of the economy. but concerns me in my decades on wall street we have libya, ukraine, we have iraq, we have the gaza strip, we have a multitude of geopolitical problems in the world that any of them could shoot fireworks at any time and that i'm concerned about. >> now, i understand. but when we look at middle east, this

let's go to the bond pits with rick santelli in chicago. good morning, rick. >> morning, sarah.d tens, we are three points lower on the day, but three points higher than the lowest yield close back in june. opening up the chart, a week ago friday. pairings, not win pairings, but bond pair position. look at introdays and 20 years from lowest to highest yield. bund, 20 -chart, never saw it before. france, 123. never saw it before. spain, 210, never been there before. my charts go back just 20 years, not 200, and italy, 235, not only is it the lowest yield, but it is now a couple basis points below the u.s. 10-year, and i know the relative value trade, but there's a currency issue there. the currency is higher than ours, and get the coupon payments, they are in euros. factor that in a bit. the dollar-yen for the foreign exchange trade, year to date trade chart, usurped for the first time since january, but could not hold it because it's toying in the levels. the gang, back to you. >> one thing, rick, when you compare those, in addition to what you said is the fact you have inflatio

built for business. >>> dow's up 42, going to chicago where rick santelli is standing by. and thank you. yesterday, we had a usda report for all you nonfinancial traders out. my guest scrutinizes the report. what did we learn from the usda report yesterday and what may have been missing from the report? >> first off, and most important, we are expecting a record crop now. record production for corn and record production for soybeans in this coming season. so that was to be expected. i think a couple of things that we didn't hear from the usda right now is the corn stalks. right now on farm stalks the highest we've had. producers are holding on to product. that means anytime we see this corn take any kind of a rally they're going to be selling into it for the next several months, into the future. and another thing about the corn market, they told us we're going to get yields about 167. that was about, you know, three points lower than most traders expected. we were looking for around 170 or so. but i think they maybe saved that increase in production for the next report. and

rick santelli is there to track the action. hi, rick. indeed new home sales today, i guess beauty of new homes sales is in the eye of the beholder or in the length of the chart. you look at a five-year, it looks a lot better than if you look at a ten-year, which doesn't look nearly as aggressive first of all the ten-year, second of all the euro versus the dollar, and clicked off 2000 today, down here they call it the s&p as the new gold. back to you i realize thank you, rick, very much. >>> it could become one of the most expensive divorces ever. billionaire harold hamm and his wife calling it quits after 25 years of marriage. robert frank has the details. we want to hear from you as well. do you think that assets earned during a marriage should simply be split in half. can you vote, go to cnbc.com/vote and weigh in. i cannot even imagine how much money we're talking about. >> we're definitely talking billions. he's worth over $20 billion. his wife could receive billions, but it depends on how much of it came from luck or hard work. now,

. >> thank you very much, rick santelli.ing up from jackson hole, talking with john williams, the man who succeeded janet yellen as president of the san francisco fed. here what he has to say ahead of keynote speech by the fed chair. we'll be right back. where the reward was that what if tnew car smelledit card and the freedom of the open road? a card that gave you that "i'm 16 and just got my first car" feeling. presenting the buypower card from capital one. redeem earnings toward part or even all of a new chevrolet, buick, gmc or cadillac - with no limits. so every time you use it, you're not just shopping for goods. you're shopping for something great. learn more at buypowercard.com we do? i took the trash out. i know. and thank you so much for that. i think we should get a medicare supplement insurance plan. right now? [ male announcer ] whether you're new to medicare or not, you may know it only covers about 80% of your part b medical expenses. it's up to you to pay the difference. so think about an aarp medicare supple

and our rick santelli also keeping an eye on what's happening in markets this morning. rick?er: absolutely, kelly. and what really captures my attention, of course, is since the beginning of the year, interest rates have been moving lower, but they've really accelerated, taken out some significant levels several weeks ago at the 244 area. today we see the national association of home builders index shoot up a couple of points. are they related? of course they are, but should they be. that's what we're going to talk about after the break. ere the rt new car smell and the freedom of the open road? a card that gave you that "i'm 16 and just got my first car" feeling. presenting the buypower card from capital one. redeem earnings toward part or even all of a new chevrolet, buick, gmc or cadillac - with no limits. so every time you use it, you're not just shopping for goods. you're shopping for something great. learn more at buypowercard.com that's why i always choose the fastest intern.r slow. the fastest printer. the fastest lunch. turkey club. the fastest pencil sharpener. the

let's get to the cme to check with rick santelli. >> hi, carl, and thank you.come our guest this thursday, bradley, thank you for taking the time. >> my pleasure. >> listen, i really like the fact that you were in another life, the ceo of the pension benefit guarantee corp., and that's the reason you're our special guest today. it seems as though the government wants to allow companies to contribute less than they should to their pension plans to generate more profit so they can pay more taxes to replenish the highway fund. it's called pension smoothing. your thoughts? >> sounds very seductive, doesn't it? what it is is budget gimmicks, slight of hand, and bad public policy. it does not raise new revenues over the long term. it discouraging in near term companies from putting more money in the pension plans and poses modest additional risk to the federal insurance program. >> how do you define modest risk? there's pensions and being from chicago, illinois i understand the public side there's not enough money, and this is really coming back to haunt us through t

rick santelli is tracking the interest rates for us. ricky? >> well, you know, sue, it isn't a wild session, but a well-volumed and still very important area that we are trading. as you look at an intraday chart of sos, notice we did try to move up to 252, the think the dow being down, what's less, down 66, is keeping a lid on any type of big soft, but one effect that was felt that probably pushed it higher much earlier before our time zones is the next chart. remember, they're about ready to trade 110, the dax tried to make a turnaround today, and it did to some extent. this definitely was a pause in the rather historic -- look at the europo. for one day finally move below 134. today's action in the 133 handle comps to september. the last time we saw a euro against the greenback, and of course the mere image comping about to the same period as 57.6 of the dollar index is they you wero currency. tyler, sue, back to you. >> when patients are refused experimental drugs in life or death cases, companies are vilified, but drub makers away they are

rick santelli gave it a c-plus, but what's the after-market response? >> yields are moving down a bit. as a matter of fact open the chart up to july. and challenging the low clou not only of the year, but going back to june of last year. tomorrow lots of data out of europe. gdp for germany, france. back to you, sue and tyler. >> thank you very much, rick. appreciate that. health care costs a major worry for most americans and get ready for more. >> this fall you're going to see a lot of big firms make us be better consumers, they're going to offer a lot of high deductible plans, but in some cases, they don't expect ugh to take them. i'll explain when "power lunch" returns. >>> and revel in atlantic city shutting its doors. should sports gambling outside of nevada be legalized to help the casino business. go to cnbc.com/vote. let us know what you think. we'll discuss it after the break. >>> welcome back to "power lunch." check out shares of biocryst pharmaceuticals. and non-primates for treatment of viruses like ebola. it also said it would received mone

rick santelli tracking the action. >> whether tensions are easier are not, that is the story of the geopolitical crowd. if you just look at two-day charts, something interesting pops up. look at the two-day chart of tens. we pretty much took out the drop in yields that occurred. we put a name for the nervousness on it. trading and speculation runs high. look at the two day. same basic scenario. back over 1%. back to the ten. you can clearly see that the boundary for bull and bear, high rates and low rates is a yield close above 245. that is what you want to watch for. on foreign exchange a big day. the euro which was up on friday is down today and it may challenge a new low close going back to september of 2013. we want to pay close attention there. >> european manufacturing data coming later in the week. >> it is a big day for the bulls. if you are playing the etf market you are pretty much in the green. iwb, the small caps, transports which are the best performing sector. on the big board you see the ten sectors. the s&p a whole lot of green on the screen. we will dive into the rally, what is