let's get to the cme group, rick santelli with the santelli exchange. >> thank you very much, john.e data today. now, if you looked at gdp it was on the light side and when you factor in the second time around the block on the fourth quarter, you end up with 2.4 for the entire 214. once again it reminds me of the famous phrase that we had after the crisis, the new normal. we've seen plenty of talk about 3%, 3.5, 4, 5% growth and we've had actual short-term spats of that. it's the sustainability that matters and i heard many different reasons and a lot of different excuses. but the one i continue to focus on productivity and there's a lot of things that are keeping the buoot on u.s. productivity many manmade we're doing it to ourselves. the 45.8 chicago number the worst since july of '09 i would put an asterisk there because we know about the port strike even though it has been resolved, the big plummet in new orders from 61 and change down to 42 and change really does underscore that. i don't want to make excuses. life happens, there's strife, and weather, cold weather, hot weather

rick santelli and the santelli exchange, hey rick. >> wonder why restricting comments.nows those sound childish. equal opportunity on comments personally. when it comes to comments on central banks we get little opportunity to comment. i said in the tease you know, tina, there is no alternative. i get it. once again let's take a step back. after the minutes and my guest today that make all these wonderful simple, easy to understand youtubes about the qe, he made a comment that hit home and i've had a lot of response the reason normalization is difficult because nobody smells the natural gas anymore. it's become a assimilated. if you have an odor in your house after a while your nose gets used to it. basically we've calibrated the world to cost of liquidity it has become very used to. addicted to. it's assimilated part of the financial fabric of pricing and considering all the trillions of dollars that created. is anybody awake at the switch. the notion that we can't find sofrmg paper there's a shortage but there's really no shortage of issuance because there's no shorta

rick santelli and a look at factory orders. rick? >> absolutely.ember factory orders expected to drop close to 2.5% added an extra percent. down 3.4, first of 2.4 expectation. last month, added awhole percent. being a december number this will of course help get closer to the granular final number of fourth quarter gdp we enter last week 2.6. draw your attention, a few minutes ago we had ism new york released, and then for the month of january and it was 44.5 versus 70.8. that is the lowest level on new york ism since april of 2009. so of course everything is right in the world, equities up 1.70 or so and interest rates up. but it doesn't quite seem to jive with data. make sure you look at spreads and interest rates across the globe. that helps explain it further. back to you. >> thank you, rick santelli. we should mention with the dow up 180, best two-day gain since january 7th and 8th. dominic chu, breaking news on lear. >> another hedge fund going activist on the company, it's marcotto according to a letter dated today on cained by kate kelly, l

let's get to the cme group and check in with rick santelli. get the santelli exchange. ning, carl. on a day where we're going to get the minutes from the last 27, 28 january fed meeting i think appropriate topic would be what is the big reason behind the jump from january 30th where you had a 1164 -- 164, 10, 262, 30-year, what changed. couple things. the reason why this is important because there is the new threat in the treasury market i see it on all the blogs the big move in interest rates that started really at the end january to today, 50s basis points on the long end is due to what the fed may or may not do in 2015. of course i'm referring to normalization. if you think it's a long-time coming, just read the great op-ed in the journal today. but in order to get at the reasons, i think all we need to do is look at charts to see what's motivating interest rates, higher since the end of january. the chart you're looking at is a chart of bund yields for all of last year up until present day. what's fascinating is, is not only that they moved down so normally without a

rick santelli has the santelli exchange. >> hi, carl.ld curve has been a real home run along with those who have been long the treasury market really starting about a year ago in november in full earnest, but i want you to look at a chart. look at a chart starting a few days before january 30th. this is 10s minus 2s. what you'll notice, it's been steepening. why would it be steepening? we covered for quite a while all the flattening that was going on and, of course, it was flattening, maybe initially the catalyst was removal of qe but normalization of rates was putting more sellers in the short end, more closely tied to the rates that the fed has direct control over over the rest of the curve. in essence what you had, short-end rates going up, flattening the curve. something has happened since that chart. on january 30th, of 2015, is when you put in the flattest 10s minus 2s, a bit under 1.20 after being the flattest it was in 31 months. if we look at the individual parts to that point, two-year notes now at 65, up 20 basis points. 10-ye

to chicago and rick santelli and the cme. hey, rick. >> hi, carl. hing the santelli exchanges the last couple weeks have probably taken notice that even though my own personal opinion the downside rates the side you're supposed to pay the most attention to, something is changing, something hasn't been quite right since the day before and certainly after that january 22nd ecb meeting. and let's go through some of the simplified version of these technical signals. we know one of the significant days to pay attention to that gives you so many clues to the drop in rates year end was the 15th of october last year. the intraday for low yields, 10s, 1.86, we traded under these two levels in 10s and 30s but never did get under the 1.11. further in time, we look at 15th when really things started to heat up right before the ecb meeting. 2.36 at that point was the low yield close for 30s, 1.71, 10s, 1.16 for 5s. traded below here and here, we never traded below the 1.16 extreme on the 15th, never traded below 1.11, the low intraday yield from the 15th. and all

rick santelli is standing by with the santelli exchange. hey, rick. >> hi, kayla. after friday's employment report a couple things continued to happen. it wasn't the catalyst that made them happen. part of that is, of course, the kind of melting up of rates which started in earnest earlier last week. look at settlements under 170 as evidence of that realizing the 20-month low yield as you see on the year to date chart is 164 and that was, of course, earlier in the month of january. now, what i want to talk about is the spread between bunds and 10s. spending quite a bit of home based time around 1.50, seen it in the 1.30s, now 1.60s. the stability of that spread alongside of the valuable information we're getting as we watch the negotiations of greece, well if rates do continue to creep up in the eurozone, it doesn't mean it's a one to one endeavor with the 10-year note. that is important. remember, whether it was 2014 where the high yields were basically the first trade of the year, very similar to this year, the treasury markets have never been in the red so to sp

over to the cme, rick santelli. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl.tick with the theme for many sessions in a row and it's going to be the technicals. because there are a lot of important levels on a lot of varied market sectors. my favorite 10-year. october 15th is just a gift that keeps on giving. let me refresh everybody's memories. we had treasury weigh in, didn't know what the volatility was. i can tell you what the volatility is. the market is getting smaller and smaller in terms of tradeable treasuries and things like primary tealers that used to be the toll keepers of liquidity have scaled back. there's going to be more of these at some point. that day the low yield intraday was 11 for 5s never had a close below it never. 186 for 10s when you did close below it a wild ride, and, of course 2.67 was 30s. 30s are marching to a different numbers at this point. the 1.86 as i look at the board today, 1.83 yield. should we take out 1.86. all bets are off say technicians. use 1.86 as the upward sell pivot. should we close above that level that will be

not open yet. >> let's get over to rick santelli with the santelli exchange this morning. like to welcome our first-time special guest, david vouts. the chairman of gasb governmental accounting standards board. thanks for taking the time david. >> thanks, rick. glad to join you. >> before we get into the thick of it let's throw something on the screen that was written in the "wall street journal" in the summer of last year by michael rappaport, states and cities could be forced to report half a trillion dollars of additional costs under rules that would shine harsher light on the growing expense of retired workers health insurance and other benefits. you're head of the group that is the could in that they could do it. what is the status of those recommendations and how much if any, has been implemented with regard to that seven month ago story. >> we've been working on pensions and other post-employment benefits which would include retiree health care. the pension standards are already effective ander with a in the process of finalizing the other post-employment benefit se

over to the bond pits this morning and check in with rick santelli on this wednesday. rick? the mini sell-off continues in treasuries and granted it isn't huge but significant. technicians were all over it. some of the long maturities climbed above significant levels either established mid-october on the frenzied day or middle of january this year. two-day chart of tens. yes up a couple of basis points. another day of parallel shifts on the curve. somebody is offside, readjustment to price structure. 5s, 10s, 30s, each up a couple of basis points. year-to-date of tens. you can see we've climbed above the 20-month low, january 15 2.71 significant. bund yields they've crept. but more significant, look at the september of last year chart of the separation, the distance between the spread between ten-year and bund rates. we've talked many times 1.50 the magic number. if you're looking to regain 150 you had it right. separation means our rates have to go higher. let's go back a minute. let's look at the euro versus dollar year-to-date. look at that pattern. now it should nobody s

rick santelli, the santelli exchange. rick? >> good morning, carl. my guest, jim bianco.this morning we had professor shiller talk about break evens. last week we had charles evans, chicago fed president, talk about break evens. tell us what break evens are and why they're important or are we using them incorrectly? >> they're tote name inflation break even treasure inflation protected security. subtract the yield of the ten year from yield of a ten year tip as they're called you get what the market thinks inflation rate will be. inflation expectations. officials have said the single most important variable in setting fed policy is inflation expectations and they use this instrument to figure out where it's going to go. the problem is it's not a good indicator of where it's going to go. historically it's been very poor. if you look at the things that drive inflation break evens, it's not economic indicators. it's things like the vix, the shape of the yield curve, the gold/silver ratio, level of interest rates. these are not things that professor shiller would use to predi

rick santelli.ou in a few minutes. >>> in addition to the news you probably heard about this thing going around on the internet about the dress. did you see black and blue? did you see white and gold? buzzfeed traffic, record traffic, jim, for buzzfeed 20 million views. one point last night almost 1 million people at one time talking about this. you and i've we've had conversations about twitter being episodic and relying on big events. now day to day. >> dick c. has to follow up dick c.'s moment twitter handle, his moment. he's got to embrace it. keep the fire stoked. the fact that this could beat the llamas i mean the llamas were major lion share for 45 minutes of the country. >> true. >> it was trending in somebody said they needed a part where they release wild animals once a day. >> i thought your analysis of the llamas they left a man behind. you're not supposed to leave one behind. >> there were three and only two ran. >> the dress i have not weighed in on the color. tell me what to do carl.

rick santelli with the santelli exchange.alley the latest focus and the nationwide measles outbreak after a report that some of the day care facilities in the region have unusually low vaccination rates. our scott cohen is there to investigate in palo alto with the story. hi, scott. >> hi, kelly. from university avenue in the heart of silicon valley. this hit home this week, when we got word that a linkedin employee up in the san francisco office, had come down with measles, potentially exposing hundreds of bay area rapid transit commuters to the disease and then here in silicon valley, wired magazine started looking around at the day care centers on-site at a number of these firms and found some low rates. you had a google facility at 68% immunization, and a cisco center below 60%. the experts say that threshhold for what they call herd immunity is 98, maybe 95%, and one disease expert tells us it's generally not a problem if you have low rates here or there, but right now, it's starting to get out of hand. >> we've always h

but first, rick santelli, what are you watching today?of course i'm watching the fact that rates have moved down a couple of basis points with equities down. is it the equitable move? should we expect more? how did friday's stronger than expected employment report figure in? and we're going to talk about net issuance around the globe of sovereign debt, all after the break. >>> let's get over to the cme group, where rick santelli is standing by. hi, rick. >> hi, kayla. here's monday's edition of "the santelli exchange." when we looked at total returns for 2014, 30s about 30% total return when you look at price appreciation and interest payments. this year has been somewhat of a split decision. if you look at the range of yields, 217 down to 164 for 10s, 30s. obviously it was a good month for return. opened at 164. the 20-month low. up 30 basis points. pretty much same scenario except for we opened up the month at all-time historic low yields. we moved up about 27 basis points. for the month of february to date, we're down about minus 2.2%

check in with rick santelli. >> good morning, carl. like to welcome my first guest of the week charles bearen. thanks, chuck. >> good to be with you, buddy. >> i know there's a lot of macro indicators. baltic dry index. it's 608. hovering at the lowest level since '86. we'll call it darn close to 30 years. how does it weave into the story, charles? >> well zero interest by the central bank has created a tremendous amount of excess production of various commodities around the world. and so there was lots of buildup of tonnage to carry all this stuff because supposedly it was going to be sustainable. but what we're realizing is that all that excess demand when interest rates first went down is just temporary, a one-shot thing. now nobody needs that much cargo capacity. >> now, i know gdp is a very crude mechanism to assess the entire economy. but it is what we have. and when we factored in our last look at 2.6, basically put the entire 2014 right around 2.5%. you know which is arguably just a couple of tenths better than we've been avera

see you soon. >> let's get over to the cme group, rick santelli is in chicago with the santelli exchangemorning, or should i say who ho, ho, ho. when i talk to people who are investors in this building that have connections to the floor, when i talk to sources around the globe, it's all about obviously trying to make some money. that's what it's about. but i remember not that many years back where the topics would go to balance sheets and fundamentals, now the topics, especially of late are things like chinese new year but more important, more important, the march date for the beginning of european qe. so the hunt for santa begins. what am i referencing? we've had a got run if you look at our dollar, s&p, even our nasdaq, after basically not being at the 5,000 level for more than a decade, 13, 14 years, it's actually getting close to testing it. but, we're forgetting about santa. investors aren't looking for fundamentals and i understand that, europe's fundamentals even though they may be improving today, they're not nearly as aggressive as the fundamentals of the u.s. that doesn't mean

going to be a big hit in a couple weeks anyway. >> no question. >> we'll. >> to the cme group, rick santellih the santelli exchange on a busy day. >> indeed, a busy day. i know there's a lot of talk about retail sales and some of the talk, of course, wants to dry try to look past certain issues. the issues i can't look past are as follows. down 0.8% in january, down 0.9% in december. worst performance since november and december of '08. back to the crisis. yield, 1.96, well above 2% before the data. the markets reading this one correctly. keep in mind we saw 25,000 jump in jobless. some things that people just don't talk about enough, after the emergency extension of jobless benefits ended, what we have seen since are better jobs numbers, and, of course, lower initial claims numbers for the most part. now the real issue that we always talk about, jobs jobs jobs, are the wage components. no matter how you slice this, something obviously happened from those second and third quarter solid gdp numbers to where we're at now. and we're still debating whether we can reach 3% on gdp. certain things

thanks so much, rick santelli. in chicago. come back, our next guest's app claims to let you trade on your phone without any fees or account minimums. you heard that right. his company backed by an dre sen and horowitz and snoop dogg. "squawk alley" will be right back. we live in a pick and choose world. (hi!) choose (hello!) choose choose. but at bedtime? ...why settle for this? enter sleep number, and the ultimate sleep number event, going on now. sleepiq technology tells you how well you slept and what adjustments you can make. you like the bed soft. he's more hardcore. so your sleep goes from good to great to wow! now we can all choose amazing sleep, only at a sleep number store. right now save 50% on the ultimate limited edition bed. know better sleep with sleep number. >>> our next guest's company has its sights set on the young investor offering zero commissions on all trades through its trading app robinhood. joinings us is co-ceo of robinhood whose apps features an dre sen horowitz and a couple rappers as well. good t

rick santelli at the cme in chicago. hey, rick. >> good morning, carl.d, even though rates are lower, they're lower at levels that don't seem quite as low. look at a year to date a two-year. we had what on the surface was a pretty good surprising jobs report. we could go through all the small details, but the two-year note didn't wait it popped up. of course, that might have an implication as to when the fed is or isn't going to raise rates close to the highest levels of the year. look at a two-day of tens. we're still holding most of the jump friday in terms of rates, but we're definitely down several basis points. year to date chart reveals we're still down pretty strong for the year considering we settle at 2.17, but many are still caught the wrong way and the market feels like it's hard to find new buyers at these levels. look at the bunde yields. even though germany's exports were up about 3.5%, their imports were down about 1%. what's really fascinating is what's going on with china. down 3.3 on exports. down 19.9 on imports. these are really reall

and the santelli exchange. good morning, rickursday we noticed that the fed balance sheet intreateded 1.3 billion from $3.3 trillion. what are the consequences of all the very strange programs and one offset we've seen i'm not sure but maybe our guest will know more. thank you for taking the time chris wailen good morning. >> good morning. >> you know unintended consequences, about nine years ago, we issued the long bond after a hiatus of halloween 2001 to february 2006. peter fisher who is now at blackdock, i think he's a senior director he said at the time was with at the treasury, yet, we're paying for that little bit. maybe you can complain. >> it allows different coupons across the futures contracts because we didn't issue any 30-year bonds from 2001 to 2006 there's a dearth of bases to deliver against the future in technical terms. so this decision in 2001 kind of continued the clinton administration prethaens we didn't have that they were borrowing from the trust fund. remember, you were there. they said we'll front load t

rick santelli tracking the action. cme. hi, rick. >> hello there. we've had basically a couple of weeks shades of higher yield. if you look we just aukdzed $24 billion of that. rates came down after that auction. it was a good auction. the important part is on the year-to-date chart. rates mostly have been going up. pretty much all maturities since the highest levels really since the beginning of the year. it was still good demand. the three years probably reflecting the propensity that maybe some better jobs data could mean the fed delivers on tightening. if you look at a two-day chart of tens it's not that rates went down, and they did a little bit right, but the fact is today's range, virtually is above yesterday's, is the melt-up in rates continues. mandy, back to you. >> thank you very much. rick santelli. well melting of a different kind. the third major storm in two weeks blasting new england. record amounts dropping on boston and paralyzing travel there. plus, the lawmakers holding hearings into the measles outbreak across america. what lawm

. >>> let's go to chicago, welcome back rick santelli. rick? >> absolutely. lots of data.ating we did see a better durables and softer headline, no surprise on the inflation front. but if you look at intraday of tens we rocketed up a bit. but you know put it in context. intraday extremes aren't where it's at for treasuries of late. they do get volatility. it's about closes. the closes are compacting and consolidating, as you look at year-to-date chart, under 2%. the significant support is 18. where do we fail? on a closing basis of 2.14 on the 17th of this month, and keep in mind, 2.17 closed last year. we fail to get yields above last year's close. hugely significant. bunds, under 30 basis points. 20-year of 7s in the eurozone flirting with negative yields. negative five year note auction with negative yields something to pay attention to. if we look at the bourses in europe a good idea how getting ready to buy securities that are already in tight supply in europe. look at italian, best level since june of last year but moving up. the cac moving up best level since the be

to chicago as well, cme group, rick santelli, hey rick. >> hey, carl.old song, "drifters made under the boardwalk" we will call this under the bored walk. where, you know, don't ask any questions, under the bored walk, we all have to think the same, under the bored walk. why do i call it the borg walk. whether the science, science is never settled or asking questions and the real focus of this santelli exchange is all the stories and all the anxieties and energy associated with a couple of duly elected congressmen asking janet yellen questions that many believe kind of crossed some line. there's many that believe a $4.5 trillion balance sheet ma i have crossed some line, plenty that will admit a lot of the issues facing us are historic in nature and the me sin we're trying to quell the issues with is historic not only in the united states it's across the globe. we also know that perception in many ways is a reality. so for congressmen who, by the way, created the federal reserve, congressmen who by the way in 197 7 created dual pilars, who could come ba

let's check in with rick santelli on this friday. >> hi, carl.'s start out, of course, looking at how the market digested the numbers this morning. here we sit at a 1.92 yield, been a bit higher, at 1.30 basis points up on the week and settled at 1.64. through a variety of santelli exchanges we've talked how the technicals didn't seem in tune pushing yields closer to historic yields around the 1.40 level. any close above 1.86 should be a lot of trapped longs and a lot of longs came in the market buying kicking and screaming because they've been fighting the market for several years. with regard to 30-year bonds they're well through their 2.36 level. there's the technicals. let's go to the real topic today, nummerology. the reason we were all screaming five years ago, jobs jobs jobs, because jobs jobs jobs brings wage wage wage. i understand that the data was good and i'm going to poke a little fun at not only the good data but maybe the not so good data. seasonally adjusted and nonseasonally adjusted and we're going to continue to try to bring yo

rick santelli with the santelli exchange. good morning. >> good morning.lose to 6 million people who have seen the following youtube animation. let's run the clip. >> did you hear about the fed? >> no. what about the fed? >> they announced another round of the quantitative easing. >> what does it mean. >> it means they are going to print a ton of money. >> well i'd like to bring the man who made that animation along with several others former futures trader i should call him the omed. thanks for taking time. >> thank you for having me rick. >> let's start quickly with the notion qe is now over and that animation was made several years ago. your thoughts on the end of qe as europe embarks on qe. >> when i made that cartoon four years ago it was obviously skep tal of skep tal of qe-2. if qe-2 worked we would not have needed all of the other programs afterwards. >> move to present times. you wrote an easy to understand op-ed, maybe those that have lot of letters after their name might from frowned. why alarms about a slight rate hike? >> i went back and looke

rick santelli heather mentioned about 230,000 the expectation in her office for the jobs number tomorrowwhat are you days expecting? is that being discounted now for tomorrow? >> yeah, no. i'm noll hearing whisper numbers of a blowout. i'm hearing them go the other way. the variance in the nonfarm payroll number has come to a grinding halt. that's a whole other starry as to why. you're going to be on the low side of expect pigsationsationsexpectations. we need to concentrate on hours work and anything that will give aus clue on wage with respect to the unemployment rate. the story with gal lap yesterday is a good story. we've been talking about it. he kind of tried to take the easy rout to explain to it many who don't want to get in weeds. that's an ongoing story. interest rates are back into a range. unless stocks start going down again, it's going to be problematic if you're looking from a big rally. >> hang on just one second. we're going to have terry duffy on the show. how will that change what we see behind you right now and going forward? >> not in the slightest. as a matter of fa

rick santelli and the sandisk exchange. rick?ednesday and we have homer homer jenkins jr. >> glad to do it. >> listen american recovery reinvestment act of 2009 roughly 7/8 of a trillion and promised shovel-ready projects but as americans looked around in the dust of that they didn't see hoover dams or a new power grid they lost trust in shovel ready and the multipliers that sold it never worked out well. what is the current state of u.s. infrastructure and are we ready for another stimulus. >> a lot of what every level of government does all day long state, local federal, identify investment projects and invest in infrastructure. it's not infrastructure has been ignored. i think the real problem, a better idea to have a big top-down project with congress and obama administration in control where dollars go or should local politicians respond to voters complaining about bad traffic, businesses complaining about bottleneck for transportation and energy? i think that democratic accountability is the good reason why we don't waste m

rick santelli. , your reaction to a continuously dovish federal reserve. >> well you know patience. how long do we need to wait? 11,400 dow points. 11,400 dow points. okay? from 6,600 to basically 18,000. i believe we were at 666 on s&ps. we were at 10% unemployment. we're now 5.5. we're averaging close to 2.5% gdp. how much patience do they need? 30s down two basis points. the biggest loser or winner depending if you are long or short, dollar index went for basically up a half a cent to unchanged. i don't know that the markets were surprised, and i don't think it's a coincidence that the high yields of the day that were made in the wee hours of the morning are pretty much exactly where we settled last year which is by far the best yield resistance and we're backing away from it quickly. back to you. >> all right. thank you very much, rick santelli. rising yields and mortgage applications lower. let's bring in diana. what does this all mean for those looking to get a mortgage these days? >> well we'r

we always believe rick santelli. jackie deangelis is at the nymex. tell us about what happened today. >> good afternoon. $53.05 is where we settled, just under $3.50 gain today. 7%. hard to believer that last thursday we hit $43.58. a couple reasons for the move higher. the first is the refinery spike starting to spook some traders but also the news of the cap ex cuts and rig declines are impacting the market. people are starting to forecast that u.s. production is going to decline in the back half of the year. still there are those out there who say not so fast. this could be a head fake. we don't always see prices move lower in a straight line and this could be a technical bounce to the upside. some people making a quick profit. we could see that $60 range before we see a three handle. back to you. >> all right, jackie. thank you. despite the rally, we're seeing low oil prices giving truck leasing company ryder a boost surpassing wall street expectations in its fourth quarter results. >> joining us right now, we welcome ryder system ceo robert sanc

let's get some focus from rick santelli at the bond pits at cm action group in chicago. rick?thank you very much david. just generically looking at the yield curve, some interesting points daily versus weekly. right now you have tens up seven on day, up 25 on the week. you have five-years up ten on the day, so there's a little flattening, but exactly um 25 on the week. parallel shift. those are big weekly moves. we closed at 164 on tens last week 115 on five. look at an interday of ten, you can see the 8:30 eastern instant reaction to headline data. you can see it showed up in boon and the dax. it showed up in a logical fashion around the globes a all correlations kind of melted into one at least for that particular moment in time not unusual. now if we want to look at a year to date of tens couple things to pay attention to that the yields should we close at 1.9 or higher would be the highest since the 13th of january. let's go back to europe a second and look at our ten-year yield and subtract boon yield and even though they've gone up ten-year yield have gone up faster. thi

. >>> let's check the bond market with rick santelli. ck. >> reporter: what a wild couple of days in the marketplace. look at a one and two-day chart. we reached the 185 mark. the hovering year, two-week high yields depending on where we close. look at the two-day boones. they're trending higher. the difference between the two has widened 11 basis points since yesterday's low yields. pay attention to that. 150 is where the market seems to be going. 145 on the spread. look at the dollar/yen. this currency has lost all its momentum of late. sue, back to you. >> thank you very much, rick. >>> caddies are teed off. they are claiming they are not human billboards to advertise on without getting paid for it. do they have a point? "power lunch" is back after a quick break. ç >>> here is just another example of passive funds beating out active fund investing. warren buffett on track to win a million dollar bet that he made seven years ago with some hedge funds. how is buffett doing it? we'll give you the details on this wager. >> 2008 "fortune" m

. >> let's first get to rick santelli. hey, rick? >> hi yes.siness inventory is important for calculations adjusting fourth quarter gdp up . 1%. we were looking for more. what's fascinating is we have had a couple of up .1. last time was in august but you have to go back to may of 2013 to find a lower month over month increase and the month i'm referencing was zero. you have to go all the way back to march of '13 to see a minus and this is definitely on the low side of the last you know in the top three lowest numbers over the last year and a half or so. so we definitely want to pay attention to the inventories because it does seem as though there was a surge mid year for the good gdp bust-out numbers. back to you. >> thank you. shares in orbitz rocketed this morning on news that the ceo found a buyer for the online operator. total $1.6 billion if you add in the debt. expedia already has 13 major brands to which the ceo dara khosrowshahi will add the orbitz brand and the cheap tickets, ebookers and hotel club. dara joins us now first on cnbc. g

>> six years and rick santelli still looks the same. s get there now to rick and the santelli exchange. >> good hair. >> well, thank you, jon. hard to believe it's six years. let's do a quick look back. because that was one crazy week in february for those that don't remember the details. of course we all remember the credit crisis and really started in the '90s, that strange blend of institutions banks, government, promoting home ownership, moral goal. buttiveover the counter and unregulated we all know what happens. crisis always breeds a big government move. it always does. so think back, the rant as it was, as it's been referred to was thursday the9 stimulus, .78 trillion dollars, next day wednesday by the home affordability and stability plan and even though it morphed into something potentially useful at that point in history it was about forgiveness and modifications. then 19th, you know what happened then. keep in mind, that in this country, it's the pursuit of happiness, there's no guarantees. card late is a card played but more

. >> rick santelli in chicago.> when we come back the ceo of reynolds american the home of camel's cigarettes. >>> later, she's on the cover of "sports illustrated" swimsuit issue. we'll talk with hannah davis right here at the big board with the dow down 82 points. >>> take a look at the markets here this morning. dow's up some 90 points. s&p subpoena 10 as we're once again positive for the year jim, as the back and forth continue. >> again focus on the united states, and focusing on apple, a full-time high. a very date barometer. >> actually now at an all-time high. sally sims is one of the providers on "squawk on the street" bringing in, jim, yes. >> oh. >> that is a beautiful cake. your own jersey. >> yeah. >> number 60. >> i love the network and i love fighting with you guys and the team that we have and the evening team. i'm thrilled to be here. everybody that we talk to. >> happy, happy birthday. >> thank you guys. >> i looked at to see who number 60 was, chuck bednarik the man who -- >> remember, the guy fr

. >> let's get to rick santelli at cme group in chicago. rick?orning, afddavid weep see treasury rates hoover at highest level since early in the year. tens the second of january, look at 24-hour chart as we hoover around that 2.05 area. year-to-date chart reveals what i was talking about. haven't had the yields since end of the year. traders paying close attention to that level. 24-hour chart of the bund up around 36 basis points. but even despite the notion that confidence, business confidence in germany better on current and even better on future expectations we see that the rates haven't gone far. year-to-date, haven't had a major test of 40 excuse me since ecb meeting. if we look at year-to-date of tens minus bunds, close to 170, we haven't seen levels since the late 80s. you won't pick up on that 20-year chart. so that's why i picked the year-to-date to show that our rates definitely continue to move higher and even despite some better data in germany, not moving high maybe wait until march. ten minus twos own yield curve, flattening. you c

the bond market, rick santelli tracking the action at the cme. rick? >> well, it's an interesting day because everyone is looking at two-day charts using yesterday's ranges as benchmarks, and the ranges were obviously through the effects of the minutes of the fed. look at a two-day, high yield fell from the course of the day, accelerated by the fed minutes and, of course that steepened the curve for the most part over the years has been flattening. year to date ten shows, yes, we backed away from settlements last year at 216 and 217 but we are not moving that far on the long end, evidence by the two-day of 30s. we're basically right at or close to the top of the range established before the fed. look at another area, high yield, a lot of anxiety about the sector about what was going on in energy. the one month spread chart, boy, the spreads have come down quite a bit. there's the same dynamic in the etf, and the last chart, two-day index, people talk about the notion that janet yellen and company are afraid of a stronger dollar. i understand that. look

rick santelli joins us from the cme group in chicago. rick? >> thank you david. like october 15th or yesterday's minutes, sometimes you get a glimpse of the market kind of in the raw. and that united states and the case yesterday. we garnered knowledge. if you look at two-day charts two days best considering volatility around the minutes in treasuries, look at a two-day of fives. though the dynamic flattening given the way we dropped off in five-year note rates, it was a steepening trade and the motivation was the short end, not so much the long end because as you move down the curve, look at two day of tens, it's demonstrating part of the dynamics of the downdraft. by the time you get to 30s, you can see a nonevent. remember, we settle a 2.75 last year on 30s and here we sit, close to three basis point where the 2.17 is well above the 2.08 in tens and 1.65 well above on the 5s. look at year-to-date of 5s to 30s, and this is very significant, what you see is on a year-to-date we flattened -- excuse me, steepened a lot. you can see yesterday's steepening on there,

sam still, rob morgan from sethy financial, jim lowell from adviser investments and rick santelli. mr. market i'm going to start with you, rick. you represent the markets here. it's been a very quiet week for the equity markets when everything else has been moving wildly. what do you make of what's going on this week here? such a strong beginning of the month and now it just quieted down. what do you think is going on here? >> it might have quieted down. keep in mind treasuries gave up all their profits and they had a really profitable january. we're basically close to unchanged on the year when you include february. we had a lot of movement in the short end yesterday. everybody thought, well you've reached close to where we closed out last year and every maturity. 2s, 5s, 7s, 10s, 30s, yesterday was it it's over. it isn't. rates are creeping back up. i think the best way to understand this week is this the equity markets are back in the positive. the treasury markets are basically unchanged and the dax closed above 11,000 for the first time in history. quantitative easing a nouksed

let's go to rick santelli. ou the same question i just asked rick bernstein, which is which percentage of the stock market rally the last six years is directly attributable to the fed? >> you can't go above 100%. >> listen, i think that more than half of the up side in equities has been fuelled in large part to direct and indirect aspects of quantity takive easing. the real issue isn't how much propelled it up. it's how much can stocks stay up as, of course, qe ended and left to its own devices, although zero interest rate policy is rather large. you see the charts, and you can see treasuries really, ryan, have been drifting from last week and a half or so since the big ecb meeting and drifting means everything is in place. yes, yields are going down. they're going down very slowly. the real question is when we put the sale back up and we get more pro active trade, what will trigger is, and what direction? i think it's a pretty good chance to say employment statistics this week might be that catalyst. >> you kno

back to you. >> thank you very much. >>> bond market now with rick santelli. rick. >> hi, tyler. indeed, we had a sloppy auction reflected in the fact it was a bit of selling afterwards looking at the intraday a the 7 year maturity of the auction, you can clearly see. year to date of ten year we see selling there. we continue to hover at 2%. the big trade today is the next one, look at this 12.5 year chart of the euro versus dollar, we broke the range we talked about for three or four weeks now, and it is at a 12-year five month low. look at the dollar index. 24-hour chart, skyrocketing. yes, it is a 12 year five month high one of the few times we have a move over the penny to the upside. >> we are driving to the 5,000 mark. should investors embrace tech or be worried? joining us is the portfolio manager at capital funds, and it seems like waiting for that nasdaq 5,000 mark all over again. are you worried at thooz levels? do you feel they are reasonable now, and it's sustainable? >> mandy, i think it's been a long hard trip to 5,000 from 1999 to 2000 for nasda

>> now for short sales you don't have to pay taxes -- >> rick santelli that would be fun. >> that woulde fun. >> yeah. all right. finally, a public outcry coming out around the so-called 421 program in new york which allows major property tax abatement for the rich instead of the poor and low income. robert frank wrote about this a couple of years ago and right now the focus is on the recent hundred million dollar penthouse sold at $157 at 57th street. it will have an estimated 90% tax break. that's because of the 421 program. explain this. i assume this is because the developer of that property sets aside certain union knits the building for moderate or low income house sfg. >> correct. in return for the tax break he has set aside 20% of the unit for affordable housing. the problem is this is a program that started in the 197 0z. it's become so complex developers can now game the system with these certificates where when you ask 157 that big high-rise where the affordable units are in exchange for those tax breaks they can't tell you. >> these affordable housing units don't exist. >> t

rick santelli it looked like we were going to go above 2% on the 10-year. pulling back a little bit. is the trend now for higher interest rates? >> well i don't think the trend could be for higher interest rates, but i certainly do think that there's a very very significant possibility of testing the level that we closed out last year and began this year right around 2.17%. and i think, you know, should that occur, at that point we could make a better call on the outlook, but remember we started out last january and this january in a very similar fashion in treasuries and after that for 2014 treasuries never were in the red, meaning if you would have purchased treasuries on the first day of '14, awed profit every single day. well, is that going to be true or not for 2015? it's true thus far but the melt up is very interesting because it seems to coordinate with a lack of significant downside further downside on the benchmark european sovereigns especially after that big meeting, and it semz toems to correlate with a little more stability in the dollar. it's

i don't know what grade rick santelli would give it. i don't give grades. it was a little stronger than expected. back to you, manned where i. >> maybe you should start giving grades. maybe a little competition between the two of you. >> nobody can match rick santelli. >> let me get back to our guests. stock, how is the investing world changing for you post-yellin, if at all? >> well i mean janet yellin mandy, she has been a dove. she remains a dove. i have a bias. the fomc minutes, i thought they were dovish. today yellin in my mind was definitely dovish. i have a stronger opinion about that than i think maybe nick or steve liesman, but, you know in my mind our official stance is we're going to see a hike at some point this summer. now, you, that could be june to september. really you're splitting hairs whether it's june or september. what you really want to know what the market needs to know is how quickly are they going to raise rates? are they going to do it fast? are they going to skip a few meetingsed, which i think they certainly will after they star

we'll talk to rick santelli about that. gold is getting slammed. oil has been a little higher today and it goes back to the jobs report. >> it's jobs friday. we'll see how that wraps up trading with an hour to go. the dow right now is down 57 points as traders troo toy make sense of where this leaves the fed and what happens next with the u.s. economy. the s&p is off 5 points and the nasdaq down 15. declines of a quarter to a third of a percent across the board at the moment today. >> two-hour "closing bell" panel. scott cavanaugh of first national. we've got eric stein of eaton vance. christine short from he is estimize. we've steve liesman and rick santelli in chicago. steve liesman, 257,000 jobs created. the unemployment rate dipped -- goes up to 5.7%. regale us here. >> there's a lot to regale you with, bill, because i think the big story is not so much the 257,000, it's the prior revisions adding 147,000 jobs to december and november which were all part of a broader annual benchmark revision that really upped the trajectory of job growth to no

rick santelli you heard ben willis talking about the treasury market. a lot of folks were watching bond yields as the litmus test to how sentiment was reacting to the headlines coming out of brussels. right now we're seeing the reaction. >> well, i know we've had some volatility and know mr. willis is probably a bit bored with the lack of volatility in stocks but -- >> yes. >> if you look at closes this week so far we've settled between 2.07% and 2.13% every day this week and today looks like no exception. so it really isn't going anywhere fast. the important thing and why everybody should pay attention is because 2.17% is where we settled last year and we haven't had a bond market go in the red for a long time. and with regard to greece, i so completely disagree. the euro/dollar hasn't dunn nearly as much as all my trading buddies thought it would. second, you had the dax for the first time close above 11,000 by one point. today it closed 49 points better. that speaks volume to how important the canary is in the coal mine. the toxic gas in the coal min

russell investments, michelle caruso-cabrera is here to discuss the situation with greece, and rick santelli, of course, is joining us from chicago. so michelle start us off. this is what has captivated a lot of traders over the weekend and today. what's the latest how do they stand right now as those negotiations continue? >> so the market has moved higher on reports that greece was finally going to ask for an extension of the bailout program. i have been communicating with greek government officials. i just e-mailed back and forth with a greek government spokesperson, and here is clarity. they say they are not going to ask for an extension of the bailout program. they may ask for an extension of the loan agreement. again, this is a conversation via e-mail but it sounds like they are going to try to ask for the money but not necessarily the conditionality that goes with it and it's not even a certain thing at this point. so that's where we stand right now. a lot of parsing of words and i'm not sure that the move that we saw in the markets was necessarily justified. i'm not sure it brings th

rick santelli is tracking the action. >> a look at today's ten-year in lieu of the data it looks as though rates are up six basis points, we settled around 1 3/4. maybe you are missing a lot if you think that way because maybe what's going on is we are just reverting back to the range we had before yesterday's dropoff. remember three turnstiles. look at this s&p versus ten year note yield chart. it's about a week long. when stocks stopped going down one turnstile buyers for treasuries disappeared. look at the next chart. this is a couple of week chart of bond yields started going down. the only turnstile left is weak global and domestic economic data. so we want to pay attention to why rates seem to be a little stubborn. the last chart is a chart of euro versus the dollar. it keeps fighting back. we are ready to make close to two and a half week highs should we close at current levels. back to you. >> good explanation there. the strong dollar having a big impact on u.s. trade. imports are up by exports are down. what that means for future u.s. growth. >>> welcome back to "power lunch." ene

you heard rick santelli talking about it earlier. meantime they've also said that the handwriting has been on the wall, they've seen these kinds of cuts in changes coming but at the same time, they're saying that they wonder what the playing field is going to be like in terms of trading futures now. when we do go electronic, you know, all the way, are the algorithms going to take over and going to make it hard for the retail investor to get into this market. that's the bigger question. anecdotally when i started at the nymex they did give me a hard time but great building a rap port with the guys. sometimes they ask me what i think it's going to happen in a report or kind of numbers i'm looking for and i'm going to miss that. >> i'm sure. thank you so much for that. let's bring in anthony, who's live at the nymex. anthony, heard the report, you know the news, why don't you gives us your reaction? >> yeah. scott, it's an end of an era, writing prices on chalk boards to computers. i've been down here 30 years and seen changes. a lot of

and the dollar against the yen, rick santelli mentioned it earlier, we're seeing movement there.lar up better than a full percent against the yen, and on the right-hand side of that chart, you can see we did have a little break-out just about last month. we're in february now. january is when we see that bump-up. >> finally, a programming note join us monday as pour lunch expands to two hours. 1:00 to 3:00 p.m. eastern time every day. sue will be back here back from the new york stock exchange back at headquarters. >> that's right. >> throughout the two hours. throughout the business day as cnbc's anchor for breaking and developing news. mandy drury will join me from 1:00 to 2:00. brian sullivan steps in at 2:00 with melissa lee from the nasdaq market site. join us this monday and every day for the new expanded power lunch. sue, i know you're going to miss the nyse. i know the folks down there are going to miss you, but you will not miss the commute, and we will love having you back here. >> i'm really happy to be back here. no offense, new york but i won't miss the east side dri

rick santelli is standing by. we've got some numbers coming up. means. jobless claims we've been watching. take a look at futures ahead of that. at this point we're still looking at green arrows for the major indexes. dow futures up by 55 points. nasdaq up by about 11.5. rick santelli is standing by, take it away. >> for non-farm productivity down .18%. this is disappointing. productivity is what keeps gdp hopping along and keeps the u.s. exceptional and it hasn't been trending. last month did have a nice revision from 2.3% up to 3.7%. unit labor cost higher than expected by twofold. 2.7%. and last month a very big revision from minus one to minus 2.3. 278,000 is the latest this week on initial claims. and of course that follows 267,000. so 11,000 difference -- i'm sorry. 9,000 difference. but the important part here isn't necessarily 278 versus 267. it was 265 prior to the revision. the reality of this is that after we started reining back on some of those initial claims that were the emergency claims that extended longer it seemed like we had a