rick santelli is in chicago. doing what he does tracking the action at the cme. >> you know after 30 sessions contained in a range of 186 to 199 we have 2% yesterday. what were you supposed to do? you were supposed to really take never that. it's fed time. open the chart up to march 16th. day before the 17th 18th meeting that's the last time we were at these levels. it makes sense. one of the big issues in the bond market is lack of liquidity. let me tell you that's getting a lot of talk these days and if you look at the boon yields close to 28. the low was on april 20th at seven basis points. they almost tripled, more than tripled. liquidity plays a part in all of these moves but the winner, the king of the day for the easiest trades you may have never done dollar index getting walloped. it should get walloped. investors don't think the fed is tightening any time soon. >> where did that water go? don't slip over there. felt the water was going all over the place. >> i have a couple of thirsty pooches down here.

first, rick santelli, what are you watching today?g to have to digest friday's number. that holiday short in session and i was there. it was exciting. maybe the response over the next couple weeks will be ever bit as exciting. we'll talk about that after the break. llo. i am a fully automated investment advisory service. i can help you choose investments. monitor them. and rebalance your portfolio. i can do a lot of what humans can. except have a real conversation. if you'd like that, you can always speak to someone at schwab. they aren't algorithms. try not to hold it against them. say hello at intelligent.schwab.com >>> top of the hour, what a reversal on wall street today. we're all over the markets. plus, we kickoff halftime's energy summit with rbc's head of commodity strategy. all-star lineup coming your way all this week as well. then a five-star fund manager makes the case for emerging markets. we'll also debate mcdonald's. see you in about 20. >> sounds good. we'll be there. flip cart, india's most valuable private company sa

thanks. >>> over to the cme group, rick santelli with "the santelli exchange." k. >> reporter: hi, carl. you know, it's really gets to be complicated these days, doing accurate forensics of data points. there was a time where things were simpler. a lot less really macro moving parts. but these moving parts seem to be here to stay. so i think we just have to put in the extra effort. trade balance, employment reports, you know, seasonal issues, nonseasonally adjusted issues. why is it so important? because everybody is trying to come up with that glimmer of information that will differentiate between are we getting a safe philosophy with regard to the economy? are things going to end up helping us like productivity which has been very muted of late? or on the other hand, are things worse than expected, and what we're seeing, some at levels of good jobs, but not showing up in things like gdp. this number gives us lots of clues. let's take it on the surface, it's pretty easy. total imports and exports, you have the dollar value. simple stuff. and guess what? when you

rick santelli is at the cme group. >> good morning, carl.now lots of markets are closed, mostly in europe. but the markets do have to and are digesting what was, no matter what type of spin you put on it from weather, of course, to seasonalities, to just general end of business cycle type trading. you see the markets are soft in equities. if you look at a one-day chart of tens you can see at least they snap back a little bit. haven't really recouped all of the big drop back but if we open the chart a bit from february, you really get to see that once again, no matter how good of a technician you are that chart looks like an anvil hanging mid air, meaning intuitively it looks like yields will go lower. if we look at one of the indications that traders monitor to see, let's look at the spread on the yield curve from 30s minus fives, hovering around 124. this chart shows you how far back. since early 2008. but it's changed a bit. we're definitely seeing this trade reversed to some extent. we want to pay attention to this. a lot of people now ar

rick santelli has the santelli exchange. rick. >> thank you sarah. i'd like to welcome my guest. time. >> likewise mark thank you. >> what are your thoughts on this mornings case schiller data release? >> overashching that. rates are down 100 basis points the year from last. they're down 100 basis points from last year to the year before. rate versus a never ending cycle. of course, what that does is that increases the affordability so house prices can keep going up. 4.2 worse with a 10% increase in affordability due to the 1% drops in rates year over year sounds to me like an interest rate adjust negative. house prices are losing their steel. it's obvious in the data. >> let me interrupt you, mark i get you, it's the sustainability issue. so we have 4% gdp. sustainability is what everybody strives for, here's my problem the journal talking about apple today, they at the hot selling iphone price went up. so it's about $660. if you look at a mortgage, a 30-year mortgage at 3.a 5%. each one of those increments roughly is $50 a month. so you are telling me that basically, for maybe

the analyst who made the bullish call live with his take. >>> factory orders, rick santelli. rick?get a positive number. it's up .2. looking for another negative looking for double down down .4. ended up with up two, a nice spread in a positive direction. here's the rub, what we gained on this one, we lost on last month. originally down .2. now stands at down .7. this is the first positive number that we have had. my goodness it is surprising since july of last year when we had a big up 10.5 egg negated the following month with mine us ten. keep in mind both extremes are historic in nature. the comps always going back to those. you know yields are up part of that claims potentially. but the sun seemed to bring in selling earlier than that 8:30 release. back to you, carl. >> rick thanks a lot. might be a shorter trading week but tomorrow is jobs friday, of course. even know the market's closed for good friday expecting increase of 250,000 on nonfarm payrolls. steve liesman back at hq on that. >> i'm looking at this data here and -- that just came out -- it look likes a lot of negati

rick santelli's got the santelli exchange. good morning, rick. >> good morning. an important morning whether it's the data jobs data for adp. i'd like to welcome my guest, richard farr thanks for taking the time. >> thank you for having me on, rick. >> all right. i guess let's start at the adp, it was a bit of a disappointment but it's not the end of the world, still close to 200,000 jobs. did you have any observations on private hiring outside of the government to reflect in that number this morning? >> yeah you know rick it's a fine number anything around 200 is fine number. anything around 200 is consistent. what you see in the data is the slow down in manufacturing. that's consistent with all the data you see in the build of durable goods inventory. we still believe the u.s. is in a transition of the energy boom and manufacturing boom. more consumer housing led economy. >> so wait. you're looking at housing as being a tail wind at some point. >> yeah. the demographic data is pretty compelling for housing. the question is when these 30-year-olds get out of mom

rick santelli at the cme group in chicago. rick? >> good morning, david.erday was about steepening, maybe it was mr. dudley new york fed bank that really put the market in hyperdrive with regard to stocks. but today we see that we're getting flattening. two-day of 5s, 5s up three basis points. tens closer to unchanged. two-day ten. both are escalating but not as quickly. open the chart up to early february. we can see we have turned the market, some say. technicians say neutral, use 1.86 as a pivot. we know that. two-day of euro versus dollar. this is interesting because so much has been written between the correlation of dollar and stocks. historically there's a big debate. as of late when the dollar goes up it hurts equities. not so much today. europe was closed yesterday. foreign exchange marks always trade. it's coming out of the box on the weak side. another big, strong positive for the dollar index two-day dollar/yen. look at dollar fly, once again back over 1.20. both of those are putting the dollar index at a significant positive start to the morni

let's get to the cme group and check in with rick santelli, the santelli exchange. ood morning, carl. today was an interesting day, being on trading floor, you get to hear some of the buzz as to what traders are looking at, what trade captures their attention and truly, you know not that treasuries don't have good volume at times. and decent ranges intraday, but if you look at the closing yield ranges, they've been tight. so the battlefield of traders is foreign exchange and the trade they seem to like the best is the euro versus dollar. there's historic shorts on that trade in terms of euro. if you look at an intraday chart this morning. right around the time the soft data was coming out. the euro was moving dramatically higher pretty darn quick it didn't last long, it came right back down. but that's very important. now, let's go to the board. here is the euro versus dollar basically starting in march. and what you need to understand is on a closing basis, it has been what traders love. 1.10, 1.05, bouncing around entitle middle. what we learned today is that it us

let's get over to the cme group rick santelli with the santelli exchange. hey, rick. >> hi, carl.uld say a third of my e-mails, i get a lot of e-mails, are about the relationship between stocks and the dollar. and it really is not an easy issue to analyze because as many of the e-mails point out, a lot of smart people took a lot of statistics classes in college, they'll do all the correlations and go back and they arrive at the conclusion we all know, is that it's tough to come up with a strong correlation for the dollar with equities that is worth its weight in salt. but, worth its weight in gold maybe. if you look as of late when the fed goes hot all roads lead to the fed. we're on the road again. the issue i'm looking at isn't the long-term correlations, but what's going on in the here and now. i look up today and i see the dollar index is flying, it's up almost a penny and most of that because it's so euro centric, what does that mean? that means well over 50% of the dollar index is just the value of the euro versus the dollar. if you look at a mere image of the dollar index,

thanks for that report. >> nuts, yes. >>> let's get over to the cme group, rick santelli, with the santelli for a high-speed train. maybe some desalonation plants would be a better investment. the imf was looking at a 3.6-year in terms of gdp for the u.s. they moved it to 3.1. but even at 3.1, well let's do the math. let's say the first quarter comes in at 1%. and we get 4%, 4%, and 4%. that's 3 billion 2% gdp for the year. or my call, i'm on the low side. let's say it's .5 and we keep the 4, 4, 4. that gets you exactly to the 3.. the point of this is wait until next quarter. whether it's the cubs or gdp, it matters not to me whether we have retail sales at 10% or 0%. i'm here to describe what's going on. what i saw in response to today's number with the marketplace was disappointment. what i read is the ongoing notion of wait until next quarter this is important, this isn't just talking about something that's kind of fun. as we have central banks around the world doing things we could argue if they're the right things. to me, the data argues that we're not doing the right things. when it c

legal help is here. >>> let's get to the cme grouk and rick santelli. >> this morning we had a durableooked good but everything did not. as peter bookfar frames it, the core durables, we've had six months down. the last streak similar was in 2009, ending in 2010 when it was seven months in a row. we know this is a very volatile data set. if you look at a two-day chart, the response in the marketplace is clear. given that we were potentially at the top of a range bringing us down anyway, it has implications for the first look at first quarter gdp, many are going to push it closer to zero. another issue of course that comes out these days is about banks. now we all know that we have negative interest rates. how do you capture negative interest rates if you're a policy-make centre if you put money into a negative t bill, you put a dollar in, you get something less than a dollar back. if you put your money in banks, okay, it's a little different scenario. if you put your money in a bank, forget for a second, fdic limits of insurance, get your money in a bank, whatever you put in, you get o

kayla, back to you. >> rick santelli, to say the market's watching this week's fed meeting, quite an nt, thanks, rick. >>> when we come back, talk about social prowess, next guest has more than 900,000 followers on instagram, created the app's most popular filters and he's featured in apple's new iphone 6 ad campaign. cole will rise up next on squawk alley. ♪ if you're looking for a car that drives you... ...and takes the wheel right from your very hands... ...this isn't that car. the first and only car with direct adaptive steering. ♪ the 328 horsepower q50, from infiniti. ♪ >>> we are on the roof this morning at our new studios at one market in san francisco. and our next guest is a former instagramer who built some of the apps most famous filters, including rise and willow. he now has over 900,000 million followers on the social networking site. the ceo and founder of photo editing light app lightly. >> good to see you. >> thank you. >> we decided to come to you. good to see you again. >> easier than flying to you guys. >> yes. you drive into san francisco and see it billboard for

but first, rick santelli, what are you watching today?rse, i think we have to continue to monitor the yield curve. with the fed minutes we will talk about how much does the fed know? remember, mr. dudley talked about how we're not as bubblish shus as we were before the crisis but looking through the mirror, behind us, what about what's ahead? we'll talk about that ahead after the break. ♪ approaching medicare eligibility? you may think you can put off checking out your medicare options until you're sixty-five, but now is a good time to get the ball rolling. keep in mind, medicare only covers about eighty percent of part b medical costs. the rest is up to you. that's where aarp medicare supplement insurance plans insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company come in. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, they could help pay some of what medicare doesn't, saving you in out-of-pocket medical costs. you've learned that taking informed steps along the way really makes a difference later. that's what it means to go long™. c

rick santelli still tracking the action at the cme. anything changed since last we spoke, rick?es, actually a lot has changed and very little of it had to do with the auction. intraday, you can't pick it out very well. let's go to the longest end of the market 30-year bonds. you can see we did see rates move down right after that 1:00 eastern auction but they started moving down sooner than that. so what was the culprit? i'll show you the culprit. i originally had an s&p 500 chart in here. but i had to switch it to the nasdaq on an intraday. why? because the nasdaq went negative around 11:50 eastern. the s&p didn't go negative until about 12:10 eastern. that's key. interest rates are definitely following the markets down. but what used to be confusing isn't. look at this dollar index chart going back to the beginning of march. this is the lowest yield since the 3rd of april but it's close to another month back. and that's probably because of the fed meeting. if they don't raise rates anytime soon the dollar comes back but the equity markets are paying more attention to the nasda

let's get to rick santelli in chicago. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl.s i look at the treasury curve i don't see any major yield curve implications today. i do see this ongoing tight range although yesterday after some hedges came off in a deal, we did see a lot of volatility in the 30-year which underscores the ongoing issues of scarcity liquidity, and how markets move in the fixed income space. especially high quulity collateral like treasury, even boons. so you see the up with and two-day chart there for tens. the two-day chart shows you the failure to be able to get back into the 190s. open the chart up to beginning of march, it jumps out at you. anybody who looks at that chart is looking 185, maybe 195, that's most likely going to continue to be the range. look for a lot of fill-in around that 186 to 190 level. now, keep in mind as we look at the next chart, 24-hour chart of boons that this the second time that we flirted with 16 basis points. we did it on the first of the month and did it today. it's bouncing along. yield curve is negative in terms

silver, copper, palladium and platinum all moving higher except for palladium. >> rick santelli on theyear note auction. what's the action like rick? >> if you look at intraday because we had a five-year note auction, it's hard to pick out the auction because the stencil of the day was already yields moving higher. a two-day of tens reflects that. not only are they moving higher today, they're moving higher in deference to yesterday's high. this is the 30th session since the last fed meeting. and what's ironic is the high yield closing that whole interim period has been 199 and here we are in tens, 1.97 1.98. if you look at a march 1st start to the euro first dollar you can see we are getting -- with the first day of a two-day fed meeting the dollar's been on the weak side the last two sessions, strong euro bringing down equity equities like the dax and interest rates are climbing to their highest level since the last meeting. bring on tomorrow's statement. mandy, back to you. >> thank you very much for that, rick santelli. tyler. >> all right. thank you very much. mandy, a state of em

peter anderson kelly conley, john kenley and our very own rick santelli. what do you think is driving the sell-off today? >> i think it's a misunderstanding of this new adjustment in the china markets. shorting the markets, allowing that to happen kelly, isn't necessarily causing markets to be regulatory in the sense that they will drive prices down. you know shorting doesn't prevent bubbles. and i think everybody's looking at this as a sense that if you introduce shortings to the china marketing with all of a sudden that bubble may burst. if that were the case kelly, look at the u.s. we've had shorting here for a long, long time. yet we've still had market bubbles. so i think it's a little bit of a misunderstanding. it probably will help price discovery but in general, it's just going to make the market more orderly and not necessarily a bearish instrument that most people i think are interpreting this news today. >> steve money has been flowing into europe european stocks as well as chinese stocks this year. all those markets up double digits. is what we

financial partners who is doing push-ups himself today, nathan bachrach from simply money and rick santelli. i want to start with you because of all the moving parts and pieces. sharply lower stocks sharply higher bond prices and oil prices. what's going on here to begin the second quarter do you think? >> you know i think it all kind of fits together well. i think the equities are disappointing, and that makes the treasuries a bit more alluring. you see bund yields made a new intraday low yield. 15 basis points. 1.86%, you remember where that came from. that's your october 15th low that we bounced off of aggressively or sold off of aggressively so that's important technically. when i look at what's going on with regard to the relative value trade in europe it has slowed down a little bit and i think maybe that's part of the reason we're not seeing yields move a bit lower and i think the most important issue of all is i know jobs the numbers, the headline numbers have looked good for a while, but most of the other data doesn't. so i think it makes perfect sense. >> even the jobs number didn

rick santelli with the santelli exchange. >>> today will be digging down into the chicago ism we justt at you on this number? >> when i first took a look at the numbers, i was glad we weren't in contracts. we have a solid set of data here, new orders up 12.8. i want to give credence to that because it's rare we have a double digit increase. this is only one of eight since the year 2000. it's a pretty big jump. >> let me stop you there viewers are interested in the next trade. you were telling me offcamera, this is normally the period you would point to the fact this is the time you build inventories. there is a seasonality here. it's not only something you see with the surveys, there will be this seasonality in all data points, but there is an issue. we saw it in gdp yesterday. >> from our standpoint we had a drawdown in inventories. last month we were over inventoried. what i'm hearing is things are not flying off the shelves as fast as they thought. >> you had an historic run-off. >> right. this is typically the time you start to accumulate your inventories and you peak in july and

simon and the gang back to you. >> thank you rick santelli. when we come back with mr.s a diversified read on american shoppers. what trend are they seeing with consumers? [ female announcer ] who are we? we are the thinkers. the job jugglers. the up all-nighters. and the ones who turn ideas into action. we've made our passions our life's work. we strive for the moments where we can say, "i did it!" ♪ ♪ we are entrepreneurs who started it all... with a signature. legalzoom has helped start over 1 million businesses, turning dreamers into business owners. and we're here to help start yours. >>> welcome back to "squawk on the street." dunkin' brands tracking for the best day since its ipo debut in july of 2001. the company raised outlook as it reported better-than-expected first quarter sales and profit. the stock has surpassed its 30-day average volume of 1.3 million shares. trading at two million shares so far today. take a look at the stock, it's up 9%. carl back over to you. >> morgan brennan. shares of jardine gaining three%. the consumer brands posted revenue of 1.7

top of the hour rick santelli tracking the action at the cme. rick. >> hi, sarah. intra dah, you can see that we do see the yields dropping a bit after the auction. it wasn't a great auction. it was average. we have been building concessions in our week meaning higher yield, lower prices for the people in the auction to participate and it made a huge difference. maybe it gives you a better story why we turn and basically we're sitting at yesterday's high yields. if we look at what's going on from december 1st of 2014 on a five versus 30 spread you can see it's starting to steepen, and it's important because if you open the chart back to late 2007 you could see that we basically have been hovering at the flattest we've been in eight years. you want to watch this spread when the minutes come out at 2:00 eastern. tyler, back to you. >>. >> actually, i think sarah is going to pick it up. >> i know you'll be with us rick, for that. tyler? >> we're going to break in and let you know that a verdict has been reached in the boston bombing case of dzhokhar tsarnaev. we don't

. >>> let's get to rick santelli, hey rick. >> good morning, carl, we've heard so many times, it's definitely there's a scarcity, real shortage of collateral around the globe. part is due to the global slow down, investors holding on, pension funds, insurance companies, but then also, think qe. no matter what country, it's pulling good collateral off the system. as it goes, the scarcity makes the fixed income market especially high quality sovereigns kevlar coated. i'm not sure i buy it. i tell you why, does scarcity always trump logic? i mean, if you look at the interest rates around the globe, they're probably way too low. and what happens if stocks have a reckoning? well we all know the only hedge for down stock is the interest rate market pushing them down lower, but, what happens if interest rates for whatever reason are the first market in that scenario to go hot on the sell side? pushing rates up. there's a permutation where if rates move up because of treasury selling or high quality sovereign selling around the globe, despite liquidity and scarcity issues, yanl it's going to farewell

rick santelli in chicago. what's going on?there are a lot of moving parts and going in front of a weekend. if you look at a 24-hour chart of 30. you can see post data maybe some ire regarding cpi, maybe it was just generalized selling from some nervousness in front of the weekend. rates are moving up a bit. it has been a curve-steepening week. that 30-year bond that is not only unchanged on the day, it's unchanged on the week. the rest of the curve yields are lower. tens but fives. fives are down seven basis points on the weekend. some of that curve steepening. maybe it would seem we should get more buying. the day isn't over. we continue to bounce on both ends of a tight closing yield. look at a year-to-date chart of tens minus twos. the tens minus twos unlike when you include the fives longer maturities, it's getting very very flat. that is year-to-date chart. pay attention to that. 24 hour chart of the bund the most watched chart on this floor as we have the countdown to negative ten year rates in the euro zone. we are now

let's get to rick santelli. >> good morning, carl. we could talk about normal all day long.to show you abnormal. something that is getting more abnormal. 24-hour chart of 10-year note yields. it is holding this very important 186 level. if you open the chart to mid march, we are in a tight range. we need to pay attention if we start to close anywhere a couple of basis points below these current closing ranges in this tight trade you see there. why? you tell me why. let's look at at couple of short-term charts. bund. 0.7 basis points. the new intraday low. we'll see where it settles. does it end there? no. let's move around the curve a little bit. eight years i pointed to yesterday, negative all the way out to eight year. now the eight year is starting to build up those negative numbers minus four basis points. it doesn't win on the euro curve, the two-year bund is the winner clearly in negative surreal, rod sterling territory and minus 27 basis points but aha the swiss say, minus 87 basis points. central bankers think this activity is good for their economies and it's going

this really reveals, this is what scares me -- >> you said something intriguing rick santelli you said the regulators need a scapegoat. why did they need a scapegoat in they already had waddell and reed. >> we need to make the markets honest. if the markets aren't honest we can't defend on anything. >> one at a time. go ahead, rick. >> if the goal is to make sure there aren't any more flash crashes, i have a flash for all the regulators listening. the fix is simple. you just charge for cancels. case closed. problem solved. listen -- >> no i don't think so. >> to be the fifth biggest is not a crime. >> no i don't think so. >> they all do the same thing, put in boat loads of orders and cancel boat loads offard order ss of orders. >> susan, they outlawed spoofing where you place an order and pull it at the last second. what rick is saying to pull it you should be charged for that pull at the same time. that would eliminate some of this that goes on this manipulation that goes on. why don't you think that would work? >> i don't think we have the regulatory strength to pull it. >> you don't

back to you. >> thank you very much rick santelli.plicated system of coding and billing is coming to the united states health care system in the fall. it could cause your doctor to be sort of basically pulling his or her hair out. bertha coombs has the story for us. what are the details? >> if you think medical billing is confusing now. just wait. the government wants more detail on medical care and spending so it's rolling out a new upgrade called icd10. it's going to mean an eight-fold increase in the number of codes your doctor has to input. dr. andrew cl i-man thinks gathering data is great, but the switch could put solo practices like his out of business. consultants tell him to keep three months of cash on hand to deal with the inevitable glitches. >> we should have reserves either in a credit line or in cash of three months of income because we might not be getting any income for a while. for a small practice that could be devastating and could put some people out of business. >> hospitals are worried about getting paid too. a

heather hughes from sun america trust and our buddy, rick santelli, in chicago. there he is. jim lowell we talked about the tradition the early part of april the market might struggle as people sold stocks to pay their taxes. then the second half of april might do better as people get their refunds and buy stocks. seems to be working here doesn't it? >> well that may be part of it. i think what we are really seeing is we can now keydeclare an earnings trend. whether it was port shutdowns, currency issues geopolitical issues. business management seems to be weathering this soft patch here in the u.s. reasonably well and also tactically capable of engaging reasonably well in areas where currency headwinds are present. i think what we're basically seeing the market react to is there hasn't been a significant reflection in the earnings of a major slowdown in at least slow growth, not no growth here at home and globally. >> heather, when you look at the market do you stick with some of the value big-cap names or do you go small here and go with some more of the momentum kind of pl

our own steve liesman and rick santelli and, steve liesman, let's start with you. those fed minutes came out. i mean what's the headline for you? it's clear that they can't decide when they believe it's the appropriate time to raise interest rates. >> it's clear there are divisions, bill, and i guess the head looirp for headline for me is there's a whiff of june in the air. i say that not just from the minutes, although there were several comments in there, several participants said that june was -- they prefer hiking in june. others said later in the year. a couple said 2016. but it wasn't just the minutes, which were three weeks ago and as bob pisani pointed out in the last hour came before that weak march report but we had two guys today, bill dudley the new york fed president, this morning saying june is in play. he thinks the bar is high for june but it's in play and jay powell the federal reserve governor whointerviewed at the council on foreign relations. i don't know if we have the sound. if you have it go ahead and run it. maybe you don't have it. >> we'll

our own rick santelli and steve leisman joining us as well. steve, i'll go with you first. because this was a day full of fed speak and any time that stanley fisher speaks it is news newsworthy newsworthy. it just seems as though today dennis lockhart may have stolen some of his thunder by appearing more dovish than in recent months. i wonder why the stock market maybe didn't react. >> i think the market sort of figured out what the fed is saying right now, scott. that's my take on why there is no reaction. when you don't get a reaction when you look at where the market is -- i don't mean just the equity markets but fixed income markets especially -- where the 10-year is around 1.90, the fed fund is 34 35 basis points. to recap, lockhart who told me the end of march he thought june ton september was the right time frame. kind of stepped up and said things are really murky right now. my take-away from all the fed speakers today there were four of them -- maybe you want to count five because one spoke twice, once to us and once publicly -- is the following. the first quarter

jason pride from glenmede and rick santelli joins us. amy wu you read the options tea leaves to gauge sentiment. which way the options traders are leaning. higher or lower right now. what's the sentiment these days? >> well, tell you from the s&p's perspective, sentiment on the downside is still high for the next one month and three months. we're looking at this via equity skew. but i will say that with earnings seasonings coming to the forefront, i think single stock volatility is actually going to be what people focus on and it tends to be a great time to own options these first three weeks into earnings especially single stock options, financials, industrials, and tech which are the biggest, heaviest reporters coming in the coming weeks. >> i wonder jason, how much investors should just wait until corporates start buying their own stock again. it's amazing how much of the flow any more and trading activity generally seems to come from big companies buying back their own shares. would you wait until their quiet season ends and they can

rick santelli, what are you watching on this friday?erest rates, there's the countdown to zero for ten-year boon. which violated from a violation of five basis points. today we want to talk about the blue side of the card, are treasury as good buy or are they a good-bye? we'll talk about that after the break. when a moment spontaneously turns romantic, why pause to take a pill? and why stop what you're doing to find a bathroom? with cialis for daily use, you don't have to plan around either. it's the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be ready anytime the moment is right. plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache.

. >> rick santelli. thank so much. >>> 40,000 fans flocking to a "star wars" convention.e you there live and talk to the head of disney, bob eiger later. dow is back down. ve to work har, know your numbers, and stay focused. i was determined to create new york city's first self-serve frozen yogurt franchise. and now you have 42 locations. the more i put into my business the more i get out of it. like 5x your rewards when you make select business purchases with your ink plus card from chase. and with ink, i choose how to redeem my points for things like cash or travel. how's the fro-yo? just peachy...literally. ink from chase. so you can. so if you get a trade idea about, say, organic food stocks, schwab can help. with a trading specialist just a tap away. what's on your mind, lisa? i'd like to talk about a trade idea. let's hear it. [ male announcer ] see how schwab can help light a way forward. so you can make your move, wherever you are. and start working on your next big idea. ♪ >>> coming up from here at the new york stock exchange, the two biggest netflix bulls on th

steve liesman and rick santelli. rick -- steve, i want to start with you. hits runs and errors from what you heard from the fed today. >> clearly they're dealing with a weaker economy. >> they downgraded the economy. they called most of that downgrade transitory. they took out that reference to -- it's the first time since i believe since '09 that there has been a calendar reference. just for those who are fed trivia they put together over calling the fed's guidance graveyard. it began with sap. this was crossed out. they went to considerable time that's gone. patient was gone. it's all crossed out. there's no more calendar guidance. we're now data dependent. what that means is that june is potentially on the table. any month is on the table potentially if the data supports it. there's no promise or guidance as to staying for the quarter. that's the big highlight. >> what do you do with this market? >> i think we buy the dips. this is no different than what we saw last year. we saw this movie. it's called "2014." we saw the disappointing numbers in q1 and i

. >> bond market with rick santelli tracking the action now. rick? >> tyler, it seems as though the foreign exchange markets dictate everything whether how commodities move and they synthesize the data and trying to handicap what the banks will do. they are down the most and it's a bit of steepening going on. real tight range. interday booms and you are right. 10 1/2 base points and a new low on yields. look at the difference between the two. 177 and the widest in over a quarter of a century. next is euro versus dollar. that is a picture of volatility. back to you. >> thank you very much. urine eastern union accuses google of cheating competitors and launched another antitrust investigation into the android mobile parading system. microsoft went through nearly two decades. will google face microsoft's fate? josh lip is live in san francisco with the details; josh. >> tyler, regulators in europe remember have been investigating google for years. they were not surprised by today's news. google did quickly shoot back saying it strongly disagreed with th

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rick santelli joins us from chicago. ur prediction, please. >> 201,000. >> fancy type. >> wow. >> this is an easy one. they're not going to make it stop at 13. they have emeril lagasse in the kitchen going bam! it's going to be 201. >> all right. moving onto mark zandi. >> i think i have to agree with mark. 200 k. >> hassett, go ahead. >> 174. >> you explained that earlier. >> i sure did. >> all right. andy stern. >> 198. >> nice. joe? joe, are you ready? >> here it comes. >> nice. grateful dead. >> nice. very nice. >> because i saw you do one. >> i did one but i'm terrible. >> so much better! show yours now. >> no. i don't want to show mine. >> did you work at that? >> i did one on the back to see if i could get it done. you did that to one up me didn't you? >> yes. it's in color too. >> nice. very nice. i think that's it. oh. we got a little bit of time here? >> we're way below consensus. >> we've got one minute. >> consensus is 248. >> everybody's below. >> let's hear from rick. where are the bonds positioning this mor

rick santelli has the santelli exchange. >> good morning, sara. my guest dr. john rutledge. thanks for taking the time this morning. >> great to be here rick. >> first topic, federal open market operations or permanent open market operations. we heard of all of those. you have a unique name for fomo. >> federal open mouth operations. it's because these days members of the fed go out, they wake up in the morning, practice their speech in the mirror and give a speech and wait for its impact on the markets. it's a terrible terrible thing for a central bank to try and manipulate the market with its words instead of deeds. close their mouth and go back to work. >> i couldn't agree more. there are always two sides. the two sides i've noticed the last week or so are strange. you have central banks doing what you said. you have cps central planners as in china. lately, many experts come on our channel and try to differentiate that china can't possibly know how to operate all these lovers but they are all doing the same thing, are they not? >> the chinese c

. >>> to the bond market rick santelli at the cme. hi, rick. >> hi tyler.need to see. we've hunkered down in the raining and elevated deals. this looks to be the third day in a row we'll settle over 2% after having 29 sessions between 186 and 199. if you open the chart to february 2nd this is very key because you can see the breakout there. many think the breakout has a lot to do with the logistics of the marketplace. some are saying it was the employment cost index up 0.7 today but so is q-3 and q-2 of 2014 up 0.7. you have to go all the way back to q4 of 2007 to find it up 0.8. if we look at the lqd which is investment quality corporate securities, you can see that it is looking at the bottom fall that's part equities and part interest rates rising. we want to pay close attention to the most popular chart on the floor. february 2nd start of the euro yersz the versus that dollar. spring has sprung to the upside for the euro. >> spring has sprung. i think euro/dollar is up about 6%, more than 6% since april 13th sitting around a two-month high. >>> after ye

you won't want to miss rick santelli's bond report coming up next. speaking of the ten-year mortgage rates still super low. the rules of the game have changed dramatically. diana ohlich is live in washington with that story. diana. >> well kayla, a lot of folks are still crying tight credit. how tight? we'll put a big number on it coming up next on "power lunch." ed one million business owners get started. visit legalzoom today for the legal help you need to start and run your business. legalzoom. legal help is here. iful it is. ♪ ♪ honey, we need to talk. we do? i took the trash out. i know. and thank you so much for that. i think we should get a medicare supplement insurance plan. right now? [ male announcer ] whether you're new to medicare or not, you may know it only covers about 80% of your part b medical expenses. it's up to you to pay the difference. so think about an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans they help cover some of what med

craig bishop from rbc wealth management and one rick santelli joining us from chicago. jim lowell what's your version? a garden variety sell-off? >> my version is that the earnings reports didn't give us enough of a catalyst top advance market gains much farther. the economic reports continue to maintain sort of a slow growth not no growth environment which is net good for long-term investors. there are certainly no obvious headwinds. strong dollar i don't think accelerates from here. certainly not based oen what we saw in the first quarter. we put transitory issues of bad weather. port shutdowns at least in relative terms behind us. i think this is sort of a market in search of momentum either to the up or downside. today it looks like it is just choosing to run to the downside. >> mark, you think that downside run could continue here as we witness a 10% pullback. first correction in four years going on? >> yeah. it's been a while. it's been at least 3.5%. typically you see a 10% correction at least once every 12 months. we are looking at -- we do think there are some

zillow >>> rick santelli is from chicago this morning. >> good morning. any fed issues with this week's statements that traders may mott gill anticipating? >>> i would think all the traders i talked to agree with you on that sir. down here one of the famous words, let's keep it simple is there a greek exit from the group, in your opinion, sir? >> i don't think so rick. that's really the key point. most people in greece want to remain there, because they know the alternative is much worse. they're talking about a grand bargain, yet there's some sort of a default which is allowed because of the limited ability to pay, but i think the broad thing which people are sort of sensing now, is that with most people wanting to remain within the euro one greece that will be the eventual path. >> i've seen today in the greek three-year a fairly large movement. there's a lot of them lately where it moves from close to 27% to under 23%. is there something going on there are supposedly pieces being written from think tanks, and have we underestimated that? any thoughts?

. >>> let's out to the bond market and check in with rick santelli who is tracking action at the cme.k. >> oh hi tyler. whether it's kind of soft equities or was it the soft data this morning but we're down a half dozen basis points. open it up to early march. this 186 level is very important in terms of support for closing yield. let's look at the 20-year chart of high yield from barclay's. yes, everybody is worried about the spreads widening. they have. based on history it's been a whole lot worse. not that many years ago. year-to-date a five-year boon yes, they went negative the second day in january, and they're trading minus ten basis points. >> rick, thank you. >> sometimes it pays off big to invest against the grain. we have three contrarian stock trades that we're going to hopefully make you look really smart in this market. that's when we return after this. you can call me shallow... but, i have a wandering eye. i mean, come on. national gives me the control to choose any car in the aisle i want. i could choose you... or i could choose her if i like her more. and i do. oh, th

and our very own rick santelli. a welcome one and all. anthony chan the big news this weekend, we have to talk about a china rate cut. the u.s. central bank the japanese, what's the message to investors. >> central banks all over the world are coddling financial markets, coddling the overall economy. that's one of the reasons we don't get big corrections anymore. we get mini corrections. right after the chinese announcement on friday that they were going to go ahead and restrict margin trading. the analysts warned and said the financial markets would melt down on monday morning. you get a much larger than expected easing in reserve requirements. in the united states we had a weak first quarter. bill dudley repeating the remarks, saying yes, there were a lot of things going on. if the financial markets don't handle fed tightening very much they'll go a lot easier. of course he gave the usual suspects but what what we knew the usual suspects weeks ago. why repeat that? again, coddling the financial markets. >> jeff kilburg, the volatility w

. >> bond market now where rick santelli is tackracking the action. >> it's a fascinating day.rt, yesterday, we closed under 1.86 lowest yield close since early february. today, yes, we had data you can assume is better than not, especially the drop in claims but a lot, as you see on the right side of the two day chart of the selling pushing rates up that started into the time zone and at 8:30 eastern, turbo thrusters. a lot goes back to the foreign exchange side with all markets when you try to explain movement, 24-hour of the chart, euro versus dollar explosive, a very big move in favor of the euro, not of the dollar today, but it really cements the point home that 1.10 on top as we breakthrough 1.09 maybe the euros are in range for now, and maybe we need more information on the european economy and ecb ease qe operations for the future. back to you. >>> if i helped to level the playing field for women and minorities in venture capital, then the battle was worth it. >> that is ellen poa, lost her gender discrimination suit against her employer, but the topic of sexism and dis

rick santelli tracking the action at the cme. fortunately, he has all his clothes on. e yields looking after that lousy durable goods number? >> you know what mandy, it wasn't a terrific number. six in a row x transportation that was a negative number. but i have to always be as objective as we can. if we look at the non-seasonally adjusted data, it was a bit stronger, so of course we're going to all watch to see how it impacts next week's first look at first quarter gdp. many think it's around zero. we did some work under yesterday's lows and there's a slight bias lower. as a matter of fact, i'll pick march 17th the first day. why? because if you look at march 17th that was the last time we closed over 2%. this is the 27th session, not date, 27th session we're going to look to be closing between 186 and 199. wow, that is a tight closing yield range. let's look at a one-month chart of the high-yield barclays spread. all the talk out there in the aftermath of the energy price drop it looks awful orderly. we've seen the spreads move from 510 to 480. you can clearly see of

nathan bacharach from simply money and rick santelli joins us from chicago as well. keith fitzgerald a lot of trepidation about the earnings to come. so far they've been better than anticipated. you're not surprised about that, are you? >> no, i'm not. i mentioned a couple weeks ago i thought that was going to be the case. i'm suspicious because the derivatives exposure they carry. i'm encouraged here. this is all about confidence right now. so far, it's holding. >> jack what do you i don't i this of the earnings so far? >> larry kudlow says earnings are the life blood of stocks. as the financials come out, break down the numbers. the trading numbers are actually bigger. these companies, these banks, these financials are making money trading throughout all this volatility. that's something that doesn't translate into growth down the year. >> nathan bacharach, the bar was set low in terms of expectations. but we shouldn't get too carried away with the kind of growth we're going to see from the first quarter. >> there's not going to be much to write home at all about.

eric from rustle investments, david from mainstay capital management and rounding out the team, rick santelli joining us from chicago as well. killer, you know typically you'll get a lot of volatility in the market when earnings are being reported. but we've had a very quiet market in that regard, the volatility index is at a major low right now. what's your version of why they are so low right now? >> well bill one thing that's dropping jaws in chicago is the biotech. look at the move in the ibb, that's the nasdaq biotech, we're seeing a sharp top, 4% dropping. if you look from friday, and i know it's in my optic view we are seeing about a 7% move. so that is certainly concerning traders here in chicago. is that the land unanswered repealed next, right now you're right, volatility is very low all-time highs again here in the s&p 500, i think this is the time, if there's ever a time to consider portfolio protection via futures are related products. >> we'll get more into that biotech movement in a moment. eric let me ask you this though, do you start to buy. it's interesting that the rustle u

rick santelli live here.listen sara eisen had a great interview with the vice chair and indeed that moved the markets but maybe not in ways that are easy to understand or so obvious. you look at a two day of tens certainly tens moved a bit but it's hard to argue it isn't a compressed market. but if you look at any of the yield curves boy, they steepened a bit and stayed steep. i picked one of the favorites on the floor five versus 30s. look at the chart, 1.26 so we're holding on to steepening in t. that means the 30-year is moving higher faster than the five-year. open the chart up to december 1st and something interesting. this has been a process occurring after multi-year flats but it is the steepest since december. maybe the most important thing if you're trading equities is this chart of the euro versus the dollar. not a huge update for the euro but still above 1.05 by a couple of handles and that's what traders are watching. >> very interesting on that yield curve comparison. >>> stocks bonds, tech lots

network, doug gordon from russell investments, peter costa from empire executions and our very own rick santelli. lindsay, let me start with you. how bad is the first quarter gdp number going to be? and what's going on with the second quarter? are we getting much of a rebound here? >> as we saw in this morning's number, it was up 4%. not normally met by disappoint. the details, looking at that proxy for business spending we saw orders decline for the seventh consecutive month. down 4% year-over-year. down nearly 10%. this is significant weakness that cannot be discounted because of one-off disruptions and certainly not because of unseasonably colder winter weather. as we look out to the remaining nine months it's likely to continue to drag. consumer spending is down. housing is bouncing along. >> we have choppy economic numbers as she just referenced. what's going on with the old school tech names? when was the last time microsoft was up 10%? amazon is up 15%, google is up 4% or so. why does the world suddenly decided they wanted to own old school tech? >> growth is back in fashion. you've got c