meantime as rick santelli said we have a little bit of an improving dollar.trade that traders don't know what to focus on and they're definitely booking some profits going into the weekend. i want to talk about gas prices a friday check before we go into the weekend. aaa saying the national average is now $2.69 this is up 30 cents from a month ago and as we're heading into memorial day, this is part of the season demand is going to pick up because of the summer driving season. these gas prices still on the rise. back to you. >> i can't wait to get you a summer driving season gift this year. what did you get me? summer driving season -- >> a new camaro. again, you did a piece earlier this season gasoline still down a lot. disney is still percolating higher. don't freak out. don't freak out. >> you know what i'm freaking out, every single oil and natural gas on my screen is down except for two. >> shef ron didn't buy aback a lot of stock. >>> all right, from john to jim stewart, pulitzer-prize winner on the transformation in technology signaled by that verizon/

rick santelli was pointing out and then it's been falling since that time.s, rick santelli does that maybe we're going to see a new trading range moved higher. maybe 2% becomes the bottom and then maybe as much as 2.5% at some point, maybe even 2.60. for the week the ten-year yield rose 1.28%. the price of oil, another volatile week there. we did peak at $1.62 a barrel right there on wednesday and it's been pulling back since that time. for the week crude oil is down almost 0.5%. we're at $59.39 bob pisani. >> it's been a great day. you have eight out of ten sectors up more than 1%. it's a broad rally. >> for the week or the day? >> for the day. this is unusual. that's broad, eight of ten sectors up more than 1%. the old frustration, the fed can't easily raise rates because the economic numbers are relatively weak. today's job numbers are okay. the market can't advance to a real high because of the relatively weak economic numbers and the flattish earnings reports we're getting. that's the conundrum. we're right up against the ceiling, 21.18 roughly would be

rick santelli and the santelli exchange. >> good morning, carl.floors and the reason i love them and granted they're not as vibrant as they once were, but that's okay. there's still a lot of synergy. a lot of talk. everybody is debating, is a hike in the cards? is it june, is it september? many traders have written off june as a rate hike, but ira harris, we've had him on many times, in his blog made an compelling argument that goes like this, in order to understand exactly what's going on, let's think san francisco fed. it wasn't that many weeks ago they pull a t-shirt out saying data-dependant. within the last 24 hours, all of a sudden the seasonalities are important. they've been ignored in jobless, the unemployment, lots of seasonality there. and listen, that's okay. maybe that's what they pick. but it's curious. because unemployment, whether you believe it or not, it's real, with regard to labor force participation. that's moving in the right direction. if you're looking to test the waters for normalization. the inflation or lack therein usin

jane wells on the west coast. >>> time for rick santelli and the santelli exchange heading into memberrick? >> absolutely. and i'm going to be moving fast, thank you, psychen. a lot of things to cover. first thing to cover is normally when you get data points whether it's housing starts, cpi, you get the street. making alterations to their expectations of future data. and cnbc has relationships with all, i'm going to pick on one in particular, come to my board. barclays, we're going to be talking specifically, q 2 gdp on the 13th, they were looking for 2.6 and land fed was looking for .7 on the 19th. that was the data housing starts released. very strong. they move from 2.6 to 2.7. atlanta fed stayed at .7. today, we get a little bit hotter cpi and the whole notion of taking the economy and deflating the number into all of this. they downgraded a bit to 2.5. i've been unable to confirm with the atlanta fed their most recent read. considering the trend, i highly doubt if it moves from .7. where's the reality here? allky tell you is they've had an awful hot hand. now let's go to the yiel

we'll be there. >>> now to the group, rick santelli and the santelli exchange, rick. >> well, good morninghn ford, thank you. friday obviously every first friday are equal not first fridays, but the early friday read on the employment report is a biggie. and for good reason. there are certain handful of very key data points. anything to do with employment, of course, and anything to do with retail sales, inflation, they're all key, but this one's key for another reason. after all the talk last week after the number came out, and believe me, it wasn't a bad number, ian though the re -- even though the revision took a lot of horsepower away, you could still say hey, maybe it was soft because of the weather, but, labor market conditions index came out today. and if we can show a chart, nothing i'd pay a whole lot of attention to, but we've talked about this before. when we're at such a vital inflection point of the markets trying to capture the price discovery back from government agencies or central bankers around the world, every day to point where we can dig down deeper in or any seasonal

rick santelli live on the floor of the cme group.ople have been asking, is that it? is the bottom of rates in? if you look at the special five weeks, and that's the time when we made the high and low yield of the year. the high was 224, and that was march 6th. those five weeks pretty much every trade after that, and that big 30-session consolidation, all augered that, yes, the bottom in yields are in. but what does that really mean? i'll tell you what, it means a lot less now than it used to, when one can have a day like october 15th of last year, where we closed 28 basis points above the low yield and all of that occurred so quickly, 186, settle to 214, then settled a year and months later at 217. who knows? why, because old school versus new school. and i'll tell you what i mean, okay? in the old days, the beauty of the free markets with open price discovery and the aggregate personality of all the players was that if interest rates moved up, stocks would take notice. and they'd start to move down. and that activity was the automat

let's get to the cme group this morning, rick santelli, the santelli exchange, hey, rick. >> you know tomorrow we have the employment report for april. expectations are right around 230,000. kind of deja vu, because if you go back a couple of employment numbers ago, we were also expecting 295, or excuse me, 230,000. but on that march 6, that friday, we ended up with 295,000. granted that was revised down to 264. the point is that for tomorrow, we really need to know where we've come from and discuss some of the previous santelli exchange. some worked pretty well. we talked about how we were in the very compressed range for 29 sessions between the closing yield of 186 and 199. we talked that it's just that easy sometimes that the minute you close, 2% or higher meaning outside the 199, you have to look for higher rates. well the first time you did that was the 28th. you look at the settlements, indeed, it wasn't that difficult of a trade so that was tuesday. last tuesday. we've got 204, 203, 211.14, 219, which happens to have been tied to the aforementioned report. >> the 224 was the hi

let's get to rick santelli with the santelli exchange. >> be thank you, carl. ek charles, he always follows the money biedermann. >> good to be with you, rick. >> i like what carl said. most of the data today were somewhat misses. we had lateral moves in the ism. stocks are on fire. a lot of that is logistics. what do you think about the year-to-date shrinkage in stocks. what is your calculation? >> well, there was an article the other day and someone was asking us if there are outflows which there have been outflows from u.s. equity mutual funds and etfs of about $60 billion. if there's been outflows year-to-date, how come the market's up? there's been 334 billion of announced float shrink. more than half of that is due to cash takeovers of public companies. that's buy backs minus new the market has been going on. >> what facilities the ongoing -- what facilitates the ongoing supply of stocks shrinking in a world where investors obviously like to buy a financial asset that's in less supply and more demand because of the level of interest rates? what is the dyna

maryland governor signing that bill as we speak. >> thank you very much. >>> let's send it over to rick santelli >> for march, 4.994,000 in terms of job openings. that is well down from last month. keep in mind last month at 5.133 million was the best. since this number series began. it began in 2000 and basically 2000 is right about the time that we see 5.2 million plus to comp this to. since it was below last month, all we have to do is look at january which was 4.9 million. you can see the comp there. let's look at some of the internals here. there's a lot of them. on separations they are hovering around 5 million. not much of a change. p the quit rate in march about 2%. 1.8 million lay-offs and discharges. not much change there. finally, we continue to look at all the separations. this is purported to be a janet yellen favorite. interest rates. they are not paying attention to the data. it seems a lot of phone calls going out saying send more money or liquidate some positions. it's global. back to you. >>> thank you. let's talk about one of the larger deals. it's not that larger deal but one

and the santelli exchange. hi, rick to get used to you in the morning. seeing you at 3:00 p.m. eastern. today is friday, friday and weekends are always a challenge for traders, think this particular weekend is a bigger challenge. and quite simply, all we have to do is consider the following. here we is sit in 10-year note yields around 2.15. we settled last year 2.17. if i had to predict where the market was going to close, i would say 2.17. if we close below it, that's kind of easy. you can give it slippage, you can consider the weekend. but below 2.17, back into positive territory for the year, i would think that's highly significant. the part that's more confusing is, exactly where did the market change direction? everybody knows i like to pay attention to intraday levels, they're important. but the closes are much more significant, especially for larger strategies outside of real minute, five-minute, 10-minute type day traders. and on monday, it was 2.28. on tuesday, it was 2.25. 2.29 the high yield close was wednes

let's get to the cme group, rick santelli with the santelli exchan exchange. >> you know i'll tell you appreciate steve liesman has a lot of my sources now looking for a variety of issues that are embedded in our data because we use data to evaluate the economy. and steve shined a light on some of the shortcomings and well, there's many. now today we learned for example that we had 274,000 in terms of initial jobless claims. now that isn't the 15-year low. the actual 15-year low was several weeks back at 262,000. but it's awfully close. and of course, i do this number every thursday at 8:30 eastern. and it is good news, many times when it comes out lower than expected, we see rates move because it is significant. well, as i said, i've been getting a barrage from all my sources, not only here, but around the globe. with data points in europe. but special thanks and shout-out to art nolan and porter boggus. here's the idea they gave me, bls website is something we should all spend time on. initial jobless claims may not be giving us the type of picture and making us draw the right conclu

>>> let's get over to chicago where rick santelli has the santelli exchange. >> i would like to welcomeay, ed lazeer, thanks for taking the time. >> there was a time and maybe i was one of the early shouters of jobs, jobs, jobs. but now i think we have to yell productivity, because increasing jobs without increasing the output, without adding to gdp means we have more people working but smaller pieces of the pie to carve up. can you dig into that notion? >> yes. absolutely. i think you're right on target with that. one of the things that happened was during the recession, productivity continued to grow, that was a good thing. unfortunately, we haven't had sustained productivity growth at the kinds of rates that we should have enter a recovery. and i attribute a large part of that to the fact that investment has been weak. capital expenditures hasn't been where it should be so we're not having an economy that's growing the factors of production in the way that we need them to grow in order to have high productivity growth. i'm kind of with you on your take in terms of why that is think t

and rick santelli for this morning's exchange. rick? >> thanks, simon.elcome my special friday eve guest david ader. thanks david. >> thank you for being here. >> you know, other the last couple of weeks, actually to be quite general in my opinion. at least from my perspective. the last four to five weeks. the personality of the fixed income market, treasuries and generalically all fixed income products, have had a personality change. have you noticed it? and what are your thoughts? >> yeah i've kind of noticed it. it's caused me some sleepless nights. and falling asleep during the day. you know i think that as we've been talking, you and i have been talking about liquidity. that is a major component to it. things have changed, right? we've had a big selloff in bunds. u.s. economic data has been weaker. which means that we may have to put some sort of a stall on when the fed is going to hike and that has consequences for inflation concerns. oil has rebounded. so there's definitely been a lot of changes. i contend that you know prices have probably change

more than have a program like this if they intend do chase down amazon. >>> let's get over to rick santelli> there's been a lot of talk of late about the personality change if you will in the fixed income markets. i think it's not only a real dynamic, i think it's a dynamic that may be with us for a while. like everything in markets that aren't operating on supply/demand, price discovery. all the boring stuff that used to make our markets the best, deepest and most liquid in the world. since then things have gotten a bit strange is a. when you take a macro view. let's look at data. today ppi was on the cold side and of course we did get a little bit of a kick down in yields. but it was somewhat brief. we've seen retail sales that was especially weak and get a brief kick-down. but major u-turns on the latter, the former is still the session today. but when it comes to inflation, disinflation, less inflation, deflation -- you know maybe i'm alone in this, but i don't think it's ever going to be a problem in the here and now like it was potentially in the '30s. take it another step. a lot of r

dow, s&p, the nasdaq within a percent, rick santelli, what are you watching today?watching 222 on ten-year note yields. they're surging again. so we're going to talk about the surge in yields and whether central banks are fighting the wrong war based on that surge. after the break. it's more than a network and the cloud. it's reliable uptime. and multi-layered security. it's how you stay connected to each other and to your customers. with centurylink you get advanced technology solutions, including an industry leading broadband network, and cloud and hosting services - all with dedicated, responsive support. with centurylink as your trusted technology partner, you're free to focus on growing your business. centurylink. your link to what's next. when you do business everywhere, the challenges of keeping everyone working together can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. with the tools and the network you need, to make working as one easier than ever. virtually anywhere. leaving you free to focus on what matters most. you are gonna

but first, rick santelli. >> i'm watching the euro get tank, interest rates move up this is about whatmay not be doing with quantitative easing. you know what we're going to talk about after the break? central banking activists. is it good for the market? i'm not knot sure unless you're one of the chosen few after the break. you can call me shallow... but, i have a wandering eye. i mean, come on. national gives me the control to choose any car in the aisle i want. i could choose you... or i could choose her if i like her more. and i do. oh, the silent treatment. real mature. so you wanna get out of here? go national. go like a pro. things we build and it'sit doesn't even fly.zing we build it in classrooms and exhibit halls, mentoring tomorrow's innovators. we build it raising roofs, preserving habitats and serving america's veterans. every day, thousands of boeing volunteers help make their communities the best they can be. building something better for all of us. >>> coming up, carl icahn joining me in a cnbc exclusive interview with more on apple and his thoughts on the reports that

let's go to chicago to rick santelli. >> good morning, sara. welcome my housing guy mark hanson. >> thanks for having me. >> we had a lot of data in reverse chronological order. new home sales. we had starts and permits last week. case-shiller today. i walk away with one notion that prices are moving higher. your thoughts? >> yeah. that's what happens when rates drop by historical amounts six months higher. this housing market is being led around by the nose by large swings in interest rates. a year ago, housing was reeling from that surge in rates, which is why year over year comps right now are real easy. that's why 517,000 new home sales this morning looks really good, when in the grand scheme of things it's depression level house sales. especially considering we've been in zurich for five years and through all these stimulus programs. when is demand going to come back to the builders outside of certain select regions in the united states of america? in this morning's numbers, we had 517. like always due to the laws of low numbers, there was

susan fulton from fbb capital partners and our own rick santelli. rick, i'll start with you because the markets response is interesting, maybe instructive. after the minutes came out, nothing happened. and in fact the dow is in the midst of a very narrow trading range for the last four or five trading sessions. the first time we've seen that this year. what's going on with this market right now, do you think? >> listen i know that there's all the issues of what's going on with first quarter gdp seasonality. the market doesn't seem to be too dissuaded from the notion that the fed isn't an issue in the near term. you can argue that the minutes say that. on one issue in particular, i'd like to put something on the screen. with regard to larry lindsay, the fed on page eight of the minutes talking about the volatility we may experience during normalization said the following, increased roll of high frequency traders, decreased inconvenientventoryies and elevated bond funds. all of those conditions are the unintended consequence of the fed's own policy. if

rick santelli big shout out to him, i know you're listening. i'm on the 9:00 to 10:00 clock on the show. he said right, there is no correlation these days. i think it's cynical to admit, but true. this was the strong number. they decided interest rates, they went down. maybe rates overshot scott. that's my thinking. >> we got up to -- david, speaking of overshooting we've been watching the rate picture globally. yesterday the ten-year may have touched 2.30 for a minute. speaking about what jim is saying about this notion of overshooting. >> it feels as though the macroplayers have been in charge. we are certainly losing money to a certain extent those who have been short in germany, we know. that move alone has been extraordinary. it was extraordinary to imagine that the ten-year bund would get to negative rates. it almost did. storming back to an incredible yield now of at least 75 basis points when you lend your money to german government for ten years. all that being said we have a lot of movement here. yesterday steve liesman was on the 4:0

jordan from hd best financial services with us, jason tried from glen meade is out there and so is rick santelli. rick, you've established that you believe the rising yields in the treasuryies is what you call a market mechanism. you know, it's the market moving it, not so much the fundamentals doing that right now. what about this rally today in the stock market? the economic data was decent. it wasn't incredible. we know the fed has an impact on the markets, but yet we are still near these all-time highs as jack likes to point out all the time. >> there is no alternative. i don't suspect that equities are just going to roll over and die and go away. that's not going to happen. as a matter of fact i think when the guns are hot in the treasury market, meaning we're in new territory, above 229 on the settlement bases in tens, above the 309 in 30s, stocks pay more attention. even when treasury rates come off a little bit they pay less attention. i think they're moving to two different dynamics. eventually they'll have to reconcile and as i proposed to jack yesterday in the bigger picture, what equ

i can't get it anywhere. >> you sound like rick santelli. >> that's the fed's fault. blame yellen for that. >> a lot of people are bonding outside this country. the u.s. has been an afterthought on global asset markets. europe's been the story, both bond and stock side. it also makes sense for the u.s. market to hold in here. we have the holiday tomorrow. it seems like this market does nothing unless it's grudging. >> guy, you feel any differently about all that? >> i think everything you guys are saying is okay. i'll add a couple other things. we've been talking about the weakness and transports for a while. that came to a kri schenn doe with the move in airlines. couple that with the move in rails. that is somewhat concerning. what is good on the other side of the ledger is the fact that the russell, the iwm, held that level that we talked about numerous times on your show. transports need to participate at some point. otherwise we're going to have an issue. the fact that the russell holds in there gives me some optimism on the upside. >> this transport one is inter

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we closed at that. >> we were bantering with rick sant santelli.tween this trading range moving higher and a still weak economy. would you agree with that? >> listen, ire don't don't know. >> do you think the economy is weak? >> economy is clearly weak. the question is not whether or not a 180, 190 yield. i think bgig thinks that's ss that's probably not the right level. >> kayla. >> in the last few weeks we had a chorus of investors saying over and over again that rates basically should not be at zero. basically going up against the feds saying okay it's been long enough. whether it's june or 2016 at this point rates should not be at zero. they're basically taking the matters in their own hands. it's arresting the moves we've seen in the treasury market we saw today and as dan said we didn't give up the real estate that we saw in friday's market. >> how weak is the u.s. economy. dan just said undeniably, it's weak. i just spent ten days on the road in virginia west virginia pennsylvania and new york. obviously, things aren't as booming as they wer

rick santelli tracking all the action at the cme. what is today's grade, professor santelli? the best of all three by far, a minus on 29 million seven-year notes which at dutch auction yielded 1.888. so if 8 is a lucky number for chinese, it's really lucky, i guess, if you bought into this auction. it gives us a good indication that many investors at least believe that maybe we've turned the corner on some of the selling pressures. it is the longest auction instrument on the curve this week. the total supply was 90 million. the bid to cover $2.49 was above 10 auction average as was 3.58. directs were pretty close to 10 option average. no matter how you sliced it, this auction opens the door up to see how it all settles out tomorrow. let's see the winners and losers at the previous auction levels. mandy, back to you. >> best of breed so far this week. thank you very much rick santelli. >>> let's look how the benchmark 10-year note is performing. the 10-year is yielding 2.13%, a little lower than where we were sitting yesterday which was 2.15 and the 30-year is yielding 2.885%.

let's go to rick santelli. we are seeing a little bit of reaction now in the bond market.x without a doubt. talk about a u-turn and down then up and where did that come from? the euro went up and down and it's now lower than it was. it was flattening. a certain move the low guy on the curve. it only moved up a basis point from 59 to 60 but that is surprising and a bit counter intuitive. about two basis points on 30s. all in all, the treasury market is like a political presser. no movement and all foreign exchange. >> thank you very much. steve liesman is still with us. i went out there and it seems like they are queueing us up. am i wrong? >> i very much disagree with you. this reminds me of the dizzyenal tone they have taken with the economy as of late. we see concerns with the strength of the dollar and undermining the growth. the weakness in the first quarter would carry over into the second quarter. if anything this is going to redirect the focus back to the weakness that has been ignored as of late. i think this justifies remaining on hold and at the earliest, the lat

rick santelli joins us. ppy monday morning, rick. >> is there such a thing as a happy monday, david? as i look at rates, a couple things pop out. rates are up a bit, but that's not as important. if you look at a two-day, we're not popping through that kind of 220 level. so let's go to year to date charts. two words pop into mind. topi and overbought or oversold in the case of prices pushing yields up. are they oversold could be a double top, yes, maybe oversold conditions exist, but the greatest big-time correction markets of all time don't really consider overbought and oversold, so thisdow after the employment and the lead up to employment and somewhat of a normalization of market rates in europe that drove it the last several weeks, we need to watch if it takes a break or not. remember, everybody looks at price, but sometimes time is the you this of technicals that's overlooked the most. let's look at year to date. look how that speedy sell-off pushing rates was. you can see the same dynamic in the europea

rick santelli was breaking down the ranges for the year, 1.6 to 2.26. if we pull back to the middle of the range, 1.94, that's what i'm looking for us to do. as far as the month of may i wouldn't go away, i think there have been some values created. better entry points here now. than there were a months ago. >> well, if you're rick sante i santelli, i'm going to call you mike santelli, is that cool for you. >> steve ballmer. >> so i mention the fact that we've had these rollover of some of these growth names. this week, especially. twitter, under armer down 6% or so what's going to make or break the month of may? >> well it's interesting. right. those are supposed to be the stocks that were kind of your all-weather names. you didn't need the economy overall to accelerate. you've had, it looks like kind of pull-backs, re-evaluation of growth rates mostly. think the other things that are key here. you mentioned the small caps, what i would mention is the health care stocks. you said the xlv come back pretty hard. that's been a favorite of growth and value

. >> let's get to rick santelli. i'm sure he has thoughts on data as well. hey, rick. >> good morning, david. how you doing? if you look at the two day of 10s you get the see a lot of range. maybe not so much volume per tick. wee hours of the morning yesterday close to 237. low yields here at 218 and a half. believe me, the treasuries did pay attention to the very lethargic retail sales numbers and of course, everybody was convinced we were going to coil like spring. at the end of the day, there's no spring board there. it was weak. if we look at year to date of tens, yes, we are hovering just above around 218 yield. the important thing is this 224 area should we close above or below it will be significant. there are outliers there. they all seem to point to selling pushing quick yield retracements to the upside. we'll have to see what type of follow through we get. you can see the same dynamic. yesterday 74 base point. today traded under 60 basis points. definitely there was data there. we'll talk about that in a minute. let's look at the jgb. they settled a

. >> let's check in with rick santelli at the cme. good morning rick. >> good morning.ven though stocks seem to be moving down. two day of tens shows we are testing unchanged on the year. two-year notes at $61. should they close would be the highest yield close since mid march. it was the flattest ever in january this year going back to 2008. about seven years. it's all it's been doing of late is steepening. let's look at the dollar index. since december 1st you could see it's turned over a bit. you overlay the next chart the dax, same pattern. the shanghai composite in china is up over 30% on the year but down 4% today. as you look at this chart starting april 1st you see deterioration as they try to control the speed. lqd and etf for corporate grade, investment grade securities. you can see it is losing ground at the lowest levels we've seen since early december. we'll be coming back in a few minutes for nonmanufacturing ism. back to you. >>> busy night tonight on "mad." >> yeah. we've got ethan allen and xpo which is a new company for me. it's one of the most aquisit

rick santelli and stocks are mixed. and lack luster. w is down and the nasdaq has fallen throughout the morning session and it is currently sitting flat. where can you find value? dominic has been looking at three sectors and six stocks. what we wanted to look at were the biggest sectors in the s&p 500. three later on in the closing bell. this sector that we are looking at is consumer staples and discretionary among the biggest in the s and p. we looked at analyst target prices for where they think it will go from current levels. moll son coors, the shares are trading at $76. they think analysts on average think we could see another 10% move for this particular stock. an interesting move here. another consumer staple stock watch is one being affected in the news all the time because of the bird flu. they do a lot of chicken productions and that sort of thing. it's up about 5% with momentum. it can go from $43 a share and rise at the current levels. that's what analysts are saying. if we move from staples to industrials, one that we want

it's all yours. >> thank you very much rick santelli in chicago.ing in the hamptons, and the result of that battle could mean that wealthy beach goers will not be able to use that private helicopter to beat the summer traffic. more on that, after the break. >>> welcome back to sidewalk on the street i'm courtney reagan. leap kansas frog trading down over 3%. the company is delaying its earnings report for the quarter and full business year because of an accounting charge related to depreciation. leapfrog was expected to report after the bell today, carl back to you. >> court, thank you very much. >>> officials in the hamptons voting to introduce new rules restricting helicopter flights in the area but wealthy residents hoping to keep the skies free for themselves robert frank is live with the details, hey robert. >> reporter: hey carl you could file this under billionaire problems. hearing has just started in the courthouse behind know decide a new rules that would limit or disrupt thousands of helicopters that take the wealthy to their beach homes

let's get to rick santelli for more data. >> absolutely.he current read which happens to be april for leading indicators up 0.7, much better than we were looking for. that's the best read since july of last year. darn close to a year. now let's go for the philly fed. this is a may data point. 6.7. we were expecting a little bit better. last look unrevised at 7.5. of course we have existing home sales. for that let's go to diane olick. >> down 3.3% to 5.04 million units up from a revised 5.21 million units in march. that's a miss. we've got down 3.3%. still up 6.1% year over year. realtors saying this setback from the robust march sales is a result of lagging supply not demand. inventories were up 10% month-to-month. still down almost 1% year over year. we've got a 5.3 month supply pushing prices ever higher. median existing home sales price in april $219,400 up 8.9% year over year. that's the 38th straight month of annual gains. it's the largest jump in prices since january of 2014. sales in the northeast month-to-month down 3.1%. midwest u

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rick santelli joins us from chicago. >> good morning. chart says it all we still have the drift in yields. we are still drifting below the $2 -- 2.17% close of last year. if you look at may 1st you get a good idea what a top forming may looked like. april gives you a better look. is it the top? many traders think it's possible. look at april 1st this year date with bund yields. more exaggerated because move down and up was exaggerated. the pattern, very similar. foreign exchange is where the action's at. interest rate differentials. foreign exchange forwards. it's all the same game. look at dollar/yen back to christmas of 2002. that's the last time we were closing at these levels. let's hold the date constant. december 2002. now let's look at what's going on with euro versus the dollar. see how close it is? granted there was one day, i believe march 13th when we settled under 1.05 with the euro versus the dollar. look at the dollar index. if you keep that same date christmas of 2002 and you look at the dollar index, other than the same d

a respite here from the three-day decline in stocks. >> let's get to chicago and check in with rick santelli> before i welcome my guests the one and only profess oror robert shiller from yale and case shiller. i want to play a little sound byte from janet yellen from yesterday, run the tape. >> i guess i would highlight that equity market valuations generally at this point are quite high. they're not so high when you compare the returns on equities to the returns on safe assets like bonds. which are also very low. but there are potential dangers there. >> well professor, i reread allen greenspan's rational exuberance speech given in december of '96. and when he talked about irrational exuberance he laid it out in a methodical way as to what his concerns and what he could do in addressing bubbles. this was a rather flippant remark during q&a. will you weigh in on this sir? >> well that speech i, i was there, i spoke with greenspan around that time. think it was kind of an isolated event. he normally didn't talk about such things. he got such a market reaction, he crashed the stock markets of

sarah, back to you. >> and same to you, rick santelli in chicago.growth in some areas. which ones are the most over-valued? diana olich is live in washington with that chunk of the story. is it new york diana? >> no it's not, sarah, it's not even california. home prices are pushing peak levels again, this time doing it without the help of easy credit. increasing numb of local markets are considered overvalued. that means that prices are pushing past what is considered sustainable, based on median income. now tight supply and strong demand pushed the median price of a home sold in april to $219,400 up 9% from a year ago. that's still below the 2006 peak. the realtor's chief economist said he expects prices to approach or reach that peak this year. certain markets are already considered overvalued. seven out of the top 100 metropolitan u.s. housing markets. this is according to a new study by core logic. and that is up from just four last fall. four out of the seven are in texas. austin houston, dallas and san antonio. these markets did not surge and

. >> let's check in with rick santelli. >> good morning. i know there's lots of talks about accuracy of numbers. what else is new? i will say on the surface everybody expected a lower number to gdp. we could argue whether it was as low as whispers. part of it is about growth. look at one day chart of 10s. clearly see the response in the marketplace was lower yields. you can pick it out. it wasn't huge because we've seen a deterioration. we are at 2.21 last week. trading ten basis points lower today. look at two day of 30s. this chart shows you we are toying with the low yesterday. this is important because last week 30-year close was close to 3%. if we look at bunds. this is fascinating. it's much more difficult to pick up the move at 8:30 eastern. there was a time where these moves were exact duplicates, clone charts. there is a dynamic where we are starting to separate a bit in terms of how these markets are linked together. 30s minus 5s this is a big spread yield curve spread on this floor. popular trade. it's a long term chart. november

rick santelli perhaps a bigger market mover was the inflation report that came out earlier this morning. saw yields tick up. is that what you're talking about out there in chicago? >> yes, definitely. that was the big piece. the other thing that was missing today as a little flexibility. many traders on this floor who by the way left early in the foreign exchange and interest rate complex, thought that janet yellen 4 1/2 hours after what was the hottest core cpi rate going back to august 2011 could have mentioned it even if being on the road she didn't have all the dots connected. not to mention it at all and then make a comment in her speech that was, you know keeping the development and economic activity and inflation, keeping us up on those as they occur, really disappointed traders to some extent. as for what's going on in the marketplace, there was a lot of volatility in the market obviously at 8:30 eastern. there was i allot of volatility when janet yellen started her speech at 1:00 eastern. traders were on the wrong side for most of the week. rates were spending time under 2.17 f

let me bring in rick santelli. the background to all of this of course is that the yields on the ten year continues to rise very steadily. i think we have done -- ten basis points in a week. what is the bigger picture as far as the huge fixed income market is telling us? >> well i still think that the biggest issue with the fixed income market is not really being able to ascertain rich and cheap. looking at bubblicious and some of the yields that have normalized a bit in the southern part of europe acknowledging that we were negative, up to nine years on the euro boon curve as you well know simon. today only the five year. only six, seven, eight, nine have moved into positive territory. so we have cut that in half. i think there's a little angst on the part of investors. there was little reality to some of the rates in europe. but all in all, normalization is most likely going to occur against the back drop of weak growth. no matter how we slice all our guest comments last year we had a negative first quarter and t

rick santelli talks about it all the time. on the upside, tim seymour talks about two and a quarter being resistant. we are smacked towards the upper end of that range. i will say this, the low in the tlt was basically the same low we made in early march. 121.5 give or take. i think the reversal was interesting. i still believe rates have lowered. all this from here to friday, it's a lot of noise in my opinion. they will tell the tale in my opinion before the rates go up over the next month. >> why do you say that? >> i have been in a camp of deflation for a long time to me rates go down. >> welcome andy. the guy has been right. what's interesting right now, i love something about oil. a lot of the charges see oil has been more of a recent move. some of these trades have been big trades that i think are starting to move and remember, the last two, three months, we have been dealing with the dollar trade. but the dollar has come up a little bit to me oil was a part of the rates group. oil would throw and force it back in januar

. >> we have stacey wu rob morgan and our own rick santelli. it's great to have everybody with us today. let me ask you first, rob. just moving beyond the reports of this why is the market down in the manner that it is today? >> i think the reason for that scott, is tied to salesforce. we had basically a good labor component of the ism services report, made people feel like rates would go up sooner. it's one of those good news is bad news type things. we'll see more deals like this because money is cheap right now. people are realizing the urgency that money will not be cheap for that much longer. >> are rates going up too fast? are they scaring people? >> i think it's definitely knocking people off the fence, let's put it that way. the fed is going to be very strategic about this. we're not going to see -- >> rick santelli out in chicago, you are with us breaking that ism services number. thatple comes after what we saw in the trade deficiting with, biggest trade gap in 20 years. is it really all the rate story on better economic news? >> well

i want to bring rick santelli back into this conversation. thanks for staying after hours. your bailey wick. we heard from singer himself that it is time to short bonds. do you think it's for real this time? >> keep in mind that it's been the wrong trade for many years. i do happen to think there's going to be a lot of normalization consequences that will result in upside in yields. but consider some facts. we're going to monetize more debt this year than ever before in history. if you don't believe me every major bank reports on it. central banks now own, get this 22 trillion -- 22 trillion in assets and a good chunk, almost all of that, are government securities. our economy is 17 trillion. it puts some kind of perspective on it. what i'm getting at i do believe rates are going to be uneven but not treated evenly. i think southern economies of europe rates are more vulnerable than treasury rates. we're all vulnerable because this is an experiment and nobody knows how it's going to turn out. i would caution that the inventory of actual tradeable securities is the problem.

let's get to rick santelli with the results. we've had a couple of auctions this week. on monday an "a," yesterday an a plus. what about today for the 30 years? >> when you put the three plus, d plus. i'll tell you why. first of all, the when issued market kind of where it was just before the dutch auction ended -- we priced the $16 billion in 30s at 3.044. higher yield lower price. we tailed a couple of basis points, not good. that's where the heaviest down mark on grade goes. but everything was either light or average. 2.20 was the bid to cover. that's light for a 2.41 10 auction average. 11.1 on directs definitely light in lieu of a 10 auction average of 16. dealers take 38%. that caps off $64 billion in supply with a weak grade on the long end where all the volatility is. does this make a statement about the market? i'm not sure but the concessions looked a lot jewsuicier for 3s and 10s. mandy, back to you. >> which one of these is not like the other. d plus. let's take a look at the 10-year yield is doing right now. let's bring up a board and show you. this is the

. >>> let's get to the cme group and rick santelli. >> you know when i first started trading in the bond market, the bond prices for 30-year were in the 50s, now they're in the 150s. a lot has changed. but certain things never change. and i think the best way to get a handle on the fixed-income market. the global sovereign market. the global interest rate market is to make it a story issue. in other words, let's make some over simplifications, let's make some mission statements, think you'll see the pieces flow nicely together. there was a period not that long ago where we went through a long consolidation, okay? so let's lay the framework for those 29 sessions that closed in a range of 186 to 199 and why they're so important. because for the last three and a half years or so, maybe a bit longer, the conventional wisdom has been that rates are going up. but something changed early last year. everybody seemed to -- investors everybody -- seemed to gravitate to the notion there could be a market where people are buying just like the central banks. so we saw the above 3% open to 2014. and w

. >>> but first, rick santelli, what are you watching today? watching the ten-year note rates get closer to unchanged on the year and we're going to dig down a little bit on today's ism report. one category in particular -- should be important to you, which one? tune in after the break to find out. [ female announcer ] who are we? we are the thinkers. the job jugglers. the up all-nighters. and the ones who turn ideas into action. we've made our passions our life's work. we strive for the moments where we can say, "i did it!" ♪ we are entrepreneurs who started it all... with a signature. legalzoom has helped start over 1 million businesses, turning dreamers into business owners. and we're here to help start yours. >>> we have a quick news alert. let's get back to sue herera, with details back at headquarters. >> david wildstein, the former port authority of new york and new jersey executive and a political appointee very loyal to chris christie, the governor of new jersey has pleaded guilty in the george washington lane closure bridge case. the

again, rick santelli. steve liesman is here and he does have more on the numbers. >> just sort of the adjustments we expected. a big surge in inports which is part of the growing trade deficit that people think were related to the easing of the west coast labor disputes that were out there. you went from 1.8 to 5.6. a little bit better on the equipment side. not terrific. 0.1 in the original report. housing report a little bit stronger and no change in the big pieces of consumer spending. and business investment still down over the quarter. it was a lousy quarter and the debate now shifts to the strength of the snap back and that snap back right now is seen as modest in the second quarter at about 2.6. but the work that i did shows that you have these weak first quarters and you have a related bounce back in the second quarter. and almost immediate regression. >> so, what, what do we think? i mean dick's been talking about this all morning. >> i don't think there's any reason to think that dick is wrong on this issue. i would adjust what he said about the current s

rick santelli you have the numbers. rick? >> yes, 265,000.ally alter the comp, of course. continuing claims 2.228 million. that is a bit lower than the 2.256 million. and, of course it opens up all the conversation we will have about 24 hours from now as we handicap, of course the job's report. i fully expect we're going to keep having decent job growth and then an unproductive economy. you're not going to get the growth but you will hire more people to have basically less output. it's not a prescription of good growth, but i think the political class is happy. gives them ground cover. back to you. >> all right, thank you so much rick santelli. steve? >>> you can introduce steve, as well. he will be introducing a very special guest who we have on the set with us this morning. >> straight from chicago. he could have stayed there and done it right next to rick. thanks for joining us charlie evans, evans. numbers weak in the first quarter. any sign that things are coming back and is your expectation that the second quarter ends up being a bounce

rick santelli where he usually is tracking the action at the cme. rick? >> good afternoon, tyler. interday of tens, slightly elevated. what i find interesting about that simple chart is that 214 is the high yield. we are taking a swing unchanged despite the rebound from close to unchanged levels from the dow and the s&p last week. all the german sovereigns out to the nine year things have changed. look at the five-year going back to january 15th because right around the 20 something is the last time it was in positive yield territory. let's look at the february start to the dollar index at the lowest level since the last week in february. that along with the best levels since the end of last year. they are helping contribute to rallying commodities like gold. tyler, back to you. >> pretty significant moves in bonds today. it starts at $350 and goes all the way up to 12,000. we are going to tear down the apple watch to the components and reveal how much it's really worth. troubling signs in the bull market and when i think of trouble, i think of that. >> trouble with a capital t. s

rick santelli tracking the action. >> refused, shoot the messenger. annualized pace when you look at all quarters is subnormal. especially after recession. we never had that growth purt on a sustainable basis. it continues to maybe be the dynamic that pushes rates lower. when was the high yield. if you look at month to date it is skreming reversal. if you open it up to april and add a month, you can see this move is something to reckon with. let's keep that first april 1st date and the euro versus the dollar. the charts look similar, yes, they do. one thing different for the month of may. how do you spell break out. look at the chart. it's a wild month in favor of the greenback. back to you. >> 13-year high against the japanese yen. thank you. crude oil getting a nice boost. we speak with the mayor of cavalry. >> continued unrest in the mideast. isis-controlled territory inside iraq and syria. a discussion with a man who is literally on the ground in iraq as isis swept in. straight ahead on power lunch. blap 167 billion barrels of quarterly oil. the g

the bond market rick santelli is checking the action at the cme. >> it might be like a tom cruise movie. the adjustment in interest rates is over. i can't tell you for sure but a two-day chart looks at least based on post auction. we had $64 billion in supply. threes tens and 30s. europe is settled back a bit. look at the macro chart on the summer of 2011. why? you see them on the left side. in 2011 and in 2012. they were whiskered under $240. interday on the right, we had a spike very close to the same level on the closing basis. it closes at $229. watch the area and continues to be important. many surprises may be left before selling, but for the moment, we are down not only on the day, but down on the week. we settle at 215. if you look at the last chart, this is the dollar index. many say this is more of a reality and it has lower rates. it seems that the dollar is far from over. >> the longest weekly losing streak since december of 2013. netflix is soaring by nearly 5% trading above $600 for the first time ever. it's up 80% this year alone. is the stock still a buy? we will be spea