, for the santelli exchange. hey, rickcontinue to see the treasuries bunds, much of southern europe, many rates across the globe, especially the higher credits in the securities market like sovereigns continue to move higher. now they do it in fits and starts. with lots of consolidation mixed in. now if we look at a chart while i'm talking, it goes back to the taper tantrum that started in may of 2013. i want to you stare at the chart when i talk and pay close attention to the 160 level. the 160 level and the 2.60 level. the 1.60 is where it started in may of 2013. and 2.60 was the first impulse, but sideways we've dabbled a lot with that level. today is a guns hot day in treasuries. ha that means is that rates have moved to a point where they're stretching out the comps. in this instance we took out last week's 2.40-plus high-yield close and we're trading through it. close to 2.50. which means it's hot. this is territory we haven't closed in yield at in eight and a half months, october/september. of last year. when guns a

we'll see you in 15. >> thank you so much, scott, we'll be there. >> let's get to the cme group, rick santellielli exchange. happy friday, rick. >> happy friday and i have george w. bush's former head of the council of economic advisers, ed lazear. thanks for taking the time on this employment friday. >> great to be with you, thanks, rick. >> all right. let's start at the top. 280,000 jobs. and believe me, i understand that's good. but we did have 329, in december, 423 in november. the snap-back didn't take those numbers, but it's still good. i found the average hourly earnings year-over-year, up 2.3%, placing it at some of the best levels since '09. your thoughts on all of it? >> right. i agree with you, rick. think what you want to look for in these numbers is trend. you don't want to look at any one single month. but trend is good over the past couple months. if we look at the current number, 280,000, that's higher than the annual number, which was about 250,000. and that's higher than the three-month number which is 207. so that's good. the labor force participation rate has been growing s

it only makes sense to go to cme with rick santelli.s making a nice move up here today. >> absolutely. yields hopping and the dollar's flopping. welcome, yra harris. i guess the best place to start today is lagarde and imf. you had thoughts this morning on the imf. >> more than this morning. i have been a critic of the imf -- i've been doing this a number of years. three things. when a country got into trouble you raised taxes, you cut spending and you depreciated the currency. the imf got involved in greece which they never should have because greece was a european problem. as long as europe was solvent, what was the issue for them to get involved? they couldn't help themselves because lagarde came with political baggage. she was the finance minister of france and there was a role she was looking to play here. they screwed the greeks totally. they gave them the austerity end but there was no currency depreciation. if you try to do this all through austerity, you are going to leave them in a terrible situation. >> you can't appreciate 1

for that we go now to the cme group, rick santelli with the santelli exchange. s, beaderman, thanks for taking the time, charles. sticking with the beet manyjuice themes are rumors of the death of bonds position greatly exaggerated, or is the book of the recent le die ceased should it include bond traders? nobody knows flowing like charles biederman. >> it's a myth in the mind of the fantasy holders, talking their book that people will keep buying stocks but truth is there's no inflows into funds, try yos or so of buybacks as they've been flooding the equity markets. believe it or not through no outflows from bond funds the last couple months maybe a billion, and bond futures have been down in price four months in a row, no outflows yet. the scary thing for me is a lot of people trade bonds with 90%, 95% margin. what happens if there's a crack and margin calls happened? i think there would be a rollover effect. there's simply no bids out for, other than from the european governments, the japanese government, the u.s. government has stopped buying. >> you know cha

rick santelli is in chicago. let's go to him. >> ten-year note yields are up this morning.any surprise. the reasons why it moved lower yesterday were really quite under debate. if you look at quarter to date charts and all the rest of the charts start at the end of the first quarter, you can see ten-year note yields are up close to 50 basis sounds. look at bund yields they're up maybe more than 70 basis points. ten minus twos. we talked about still coming out from the fed that they're going to raise rates. i'm not sure that the motivation for that is an imminent tightening in the minds of investors. dollar index is mostly down. not in a huge way. stocks are easy. goose egg. basically s&p is unchanged on the year and hyj continues to make shoe lows. and now back to david. >> we'll be right back to you then, rick. >> i'm worried. the transports. this piece comes out and it's negative. they're all up. let some of them go. >> you mentioned the transports in the mad dash. >> and i think you have a chance. >> yesterday the key of the market was financials. today they're up. yeste

rick santelli and the santelli exchange. hi, carl, i would like to welcome my special guest, i'm excited to have you mark olsen, former fed governor on the day of the press conference and second day of this fed meeting, thanks again, calibration, i want to talk about calibration. you know if you have a pick-up truck that can hold two tons and you put five tons in the back, we shouldn't be shocked it can't get up to speed. it's sluggish, it doesn't have the performance it did. no matter how much air you put in the tires. i think the fed and zero interest rate policies is like air in the tires, we're missing the big picture. they've recalibrated the economy and we're getting exactly what we deserve based on the calibration. tell me where those statements run correct or whether you agree with them. >> i think there's a big difference between putting a load in a truck and expanding the money supply, which is what they've done as a way of stimulating the economy. because the opposite of what we've seen from that, was the experienc

let's get to the cme group, rick santelli has the santelli exchange. those days where a lot of traders are walking around on the floor scratching their heads a bit. keep in mind, things happen quickly. some of the market moves, even though they're not huge, look at a two-day chart of tens, we've seen an appreciation, a move up in interest rates. if you open the chart up, we may be challenging the high yield close for the year at 229. the reason all of this is important is because the world is now cal bralted and the calibration has been set by central bankers, central planners. and we could debate as to whether that's good or bad. their hearts may have been in the right place, now we're all in the same place as markets try to get their bearings on small, subtle changes in fundamentals. and that's what we're talking about here. we've talked many times about how the markets are in such a way configured with regard to who's holding what, think about things like the bubble and interest rates. that a subtle change in any type of fundamentals whether globall

bob pisani here at new york stock exchange rick santelli in chicago.gains but off the highs now. >> i'd say modest gains. take a look at s&p 500. we were at 2093 at 2:00. we moved up about six points on that. take a look. yeah. i think that's significant. we moved into positive territory on the day. bank stocks we've been noting a knee-jerk reaction rates have moved up by bank stocks. i'd say slightly positive move in bank stocks. kbe, basket of the big bank stocks, bank etf, that's moving to the upside. put that up there. quul you'll see bank stocks moving today. there you go. keep moving on here. there's the bank stock. slight move to the upside but negative on the day. interest rate sensitive sectors have had a tough time recently. they have moved down as rates tended to move up. if you look at real is state investment trust basket of reit, interest rate sensitive ex sector, that's had a big hit. the vnq has moved generally to the downside. but intraday since the announcement slight uptick in the vnq. good sign. utilities moving down dramatically in

joining us ben laler, ben willis and rick santelli. the prevailing trade is go with those sectors that will do well in rising interest rates like the financials and stay away from intrasensitive stocks. have we figured that out too much? >> if you are going to trade with a history book, that's your best bet. trading with financials and banks. the business of banking becomes more profitable as interest rates rise. the back drop is the great unwind of the central banks of the world. nobody has that play book. right now, the best case scenario is unwind as rates rise the banks should benefit. of course the other side of the equation for investing that's been focused, money pouring in is biotech sector. that has not begin up health care sector since obamacare has come in. health sector benefited from mcdonald's through humana and deals going on. it's all part of the same function, people eating poorly and needing health care. it's an odd combination. >> a lot of m&a talk fueling that group. rick santelli the whole trade on equities is abou

let's get to rick santelli in chicago. >> hi. may industrial production down.2.not the number we were looking for. we were looking for .2 but to the up side. none of that is running very high. we look at yutization rates and something around 78.4. 78.1. although the revision is actually up from 78.2 original reporting last month to 78.3. we're light especially on industrial production. and we're coming in with yields definitely on the light side. close to 240 on friday. week of fed meeting the data empire, wasn't a strong number. but maybe it's stocks being pressured. we'll keep you informed every step of the way. >> thanks rick. at the paris air show boing ceo talked about maintaining profit margins. >> a volume is your friend when you're trying to make money and we have big fixed costs and record deliveries. the industry has never seen a company deliver as many airplanes as we delivered yesterday and we'll deliver this year, and viem is your friend. the designs is good. tension nearing has stopped. we have a chance to make some real money. >> in the next hour a

rick santelli has been tracking the action, the highs and lows. i cried a little laughed a little.s going on? >> big number tomorrow. traders sometimes are brave. they are especially brave when liquidity seems to disappear and they all put their hands down. but i think with tomorrow's number you see the markets ease back a bit. here's something important. intraday five year. high yelled was at 173 at 4:46 a.m. ten year. it's high yield, 2:42. guess what time? 4:45 eastern. boon yields. traded 1% within a whis kerrker. 4:45. euro peaked at 1.18. 4:40. dollar/yen bottomed at 4:40 eastern at 123.80. the point of the matter fx interest rates have been paired together and for a while. paired together with a high correlation right down to the exact minute. tyler, back to you. >> how much of the correlation is tied to what the german market is doing? is he there? he's gone maybe. >> i'm here. it's between -- yes, i'm here. it's between the euro -- yes, i'm here. >> i was asking. >> the bund is key. the euro is key. they are all tied together. i know the big story is the imf. i get it. we'

. >> i remember rick santelli, yelling about we can't bail out homeowners because he was responsible, he didn't take on more debt than he had and he managed to pay his mortgage but we let other people take on more debt than they should have and have outsize mortgage payments, let's talk about homeowners here. >> i will have to say there were a lot of hedge funds had a were short the market. it was really not in their interest to reduce these borrower defaults. the more mortgage losses there were the more money they made. put that aside. i think there's a wonderful book called house of debt that came out last year. the problem is the mortgages the stressed homeowners, not the banks. we need to stabilize the banking system but what's driving these losses is high risk mortgages that were unaffordable for borrowers. the reason we had a recession was borrowers were in over their head in debt. they couldn't refinance the high interest mortgages i.t. was driving a lot of consumer demand they had to pull back. homeowners did everything they could to keep their homes they were blowing through

about this remarkable rally today, keith fitzgerald from running morning.com, and our very own rick santelli. we welcome you back rick and everybody here to the program. why are markets up so strongly today? >> well this is that spring that's been loading, kelly, that we've been talking about. this capital that's been coming out of fixed income. and not only out of fixed income. but as you think about it out of other global markets. out of asia or europe. and this is going straight into u.s. equities. it was just a matter of time. what we're looking at is just a tsunami of capital. and the biggest problem i think that we're having is there are still a lot of nonbelievers out there. you know, we've been waiting for these markets to start going in different directions. this is the road to normalization. we finally got on it. it's going to be messy, but either way it's going to be good for equities. >> do you believe this is the start of something bigger? the idea that the reflation trade has become a growth trade? that increasingly stocks are going to rise and bonds simply fall as we normalize

rick santelli. disney stock. look at what the stock is doing today. it's interesting. a bit of a shake-up up by nearly 1%. julia is live in l.a. julia? lots of news. >> that's right, mandy. disney's chief financial officer is stepping down effective june 30th and saying it will continue to serve in an advisory capacity and assist in the transition saying a new c rksfo will be 2345i78ed at a later date. he joined disney in 1986 as a director of of manning and development. it was considered in the running for disney's new role of chief operating officer in february. stags who was cfo before and took on his role running the parks is now considered apparent to bob eyeinger when his contract expires in 2018. mandy? >> the big story from disney from the supposedly happiest place on earth could be getting more or less expensive. the supply and demand pricing based on when you go. julia? >> exactly. disney is looking into when the customer changed more for the most crowded times and less for off peak. disney sent the survey to guess about the idea of three types of tickets. th

. >> and rick santelli is with us as well. let's get to our chief international correspondent michelle michelle caruso-cabrera. >> the greeks may be confronted with a a take it or leave it deal on june 18th. let's see if they accept that deal. if they don't, it's going to be another situation where we're wait oging to see who is going to blink first. the really key date is june 30th. that's the day that they have to pay the imf, that's the day they have to pay pensions that's the day they have to pay civil servants and it's also the day their current bailout official live expire live expires and might force the ecb to be tougher on them. >> michelle there's already reports and i expect this will pick up ahead of that important headline that greece may impose capital controls. is this indicative of the turn in talks that we've seen for some of greece's creditors lately and the fact we came out of the weekend with no significant progress? >> yeah every day that goes by we get closer and closer to capital controls. what would def

. >>> rick santelli at the cme group in chicago. good morning, rick. >> good morning, sarah.morning's data was very interested. even though interest rates were low and the federal reserve and central banks have not picked savers as the winning category to be a part of we see that spending really didn't do it. it was about income. savings went up to some of the best levels we have seen since december of '12. you could see an intraday of 10 our low yield was made when the data hit the wires, open it up to may 1st it's been a rambunctious time. traders are trading 217, the close yield for the ten year and 2014 is a biff volt it's worked well. good resistance up at the high yield on a closing base after 229. two-day bunds, nice slight drifts open the chart up to early april, low intraday was close to four basis points but you can see we're reremaining in the high 40s at this point. not a lot of volatility. if we look at foreign exchange where volatility is hanging out these days listen 110 is the pivot a lot of traders are using. it hasn't worked as well as some of the key techni

art cashin joins us and john brady and rick santelli. welcome to all of you.e in this last half hour? >> right now the dow and standard and poors looks paired off. things will turn frantic in the final 15 minutes when we go onto the rebalancing mode. a few surprises will pop-up and people will look for those imbalances and try to find an offsetting way to pair them off and make for as little as possible price movement. >> why do they do the rebalancing? >> companies can buy back their own stock that. changed their relative waiting in where things start. you can have stock splits and a variety of other things. if your representation within the index begins to move and/or they bring in new items, they've got to make an adjustment. the russell tries to do it once a year and that makes it a big oechbt. several other indices we see on month end or quarterly end happening over the course of the year. >> what or where are you guys buying this afternoon? >> our focus has been on the treasury market. the bond market sold off hard today. the attention for the bond marke

first, rick santelli, what are you looking at? >> absolutely.tching the market s and reading a lot of surveys as to what investors are thinking. we dead it today with rebecca corbin. we'll reconcile. a good chunk of healthy skepticism on the economy versus navigating the marketplace after the break. ♪ ♪ at chase, we celebrate small businesses every day through programs like mission main street grants. last years' grant recipients are achieving amazing things. carving a name for myself and creating local jobs. creating more programs for these little bookworms. bringing a taste of louisiana to the world. at chase, we're proud to support our grant recipients, and small businesses like yours. so you can take the next big step. as the company that's all about printing. but did you know we also support hospitals using electronic health records for more than 30 million patients? or that our software helps over 20 million smartphone users remotely configure e-mail every month? or how about processing nearly $5 billion in electronic toll payments a year?

rick santelli do it. i'm not in a hurry. >> you are going to get a lot of those people. >> i'm not in a hurry. >> come on already, right? if we see parity it will be parody for earnings. pe multiple will be at 20 for the s&p. that's too high. stocks get hit. i'm in favor of higher stocks. >> you are, okay. at the expense of not as many jobs? >> there were a lot of numbers away from jobs. >> such as? >> okay. >> transports? what? >> if you look at the granularity of retailers, may was not a good month. costco, may not that good. walmart? eh. target may be better. big retail home depot was the only one i felt was good. >> of course we don't get monthlies from most retailers. >> right. i make my calls. find out how people are doing. airlines were not that good. i would like to see how much is west coast port and how much is not. i'm saying there's a lot of neutrality other than jobs. jobs are the most pertinent. i am saying rather than do june which is what the utilities are saying the real estate investment

dennis gartman, we have ben willis with us today and rick santelli in chicago. ben, we had a sell-off here in the last hour. a lot of traders looking at each other like what was that about? are you hearing anything? it's come back. we are down 35 points. we were higher earlier. >> it's the computers starting to read that the imbalances for sale for the closing bell took us through technical levels 21.06 on the s&p or a lot of the intraday traders trade the spiders that broke the 2110 level. you also start to see them pair off. that's why the system is in place. you'll see the market come back a little bit from that. >> we are seeing another round of headlines maybe about greece. how are you trading that event? >> the headlines in greece are different every two hours. wrong. every two minutes. wrong. every two seconds. there is a new headline that comes out. somebody says something silly. someone says something bright. the next thing you know the euro is under pressure. it seems to be under pressure. i said this before on the show i think germany wants to keep gr

. >>> let's get to rick santelli. an important guest for us. >> thank you simon.he ecb, jean claude trichet. thank you for taking the time on this most interesting day and of course, interesting is stretching that description. >> it's a pleasure. >> all right. you know, another jean claude over the weekend, jean claude juncker head of the eu said the following. i have always said we have to pay more attention to the social fairness of our programs. i don't imagine that any agreement can be made for the greek people through the political process of the structure of the eu without having the population of greece saying whether they are for or against it. your thought mr. trichet? >> well, i think that we have three political problems. one is the greek political problem which is of extreme importance. of course, we are speaking of the adjustment program of greece. the second problem is the taxpayers of the other countries in europe which have helped greece up until now and then you have the political problem of the imf the international community, and the three polit

first, rick santelli, what are you watching today?le bits of decent data, and we're back to unchanged on the year for tens, around 216, 27217. we're going to talk about than. euro verse the dollar, most important, we're going to talk about models right after the break. ♪ ♪ hp instant ink can save you up to 50% on ink delivered to your door, so print all you want and never run out. plans start at $2.99 a month. right now, buy an eligible printer and get three months of free ink with hp instant ink. available at participating retailers. the most affordable way to print. hp instant ink. >>> china stock's up 50% this year and a possible new way for you to invest there. unless of course you think there's a giant bubble brewing. >>> and bull or bullseye? we debate the biggest calls on the street today. did the analysts get them right or wrong? we will decide. carl, see you in about 15. >> sounds good, scott, thanks. >>> elon musk's growing empire fueled by 4.9 billion in government subsidy twhabs report from the l.a. times this morning. iow

let's go to rick santelli. >>> i'll tell you what when you are looking for a stencil for a solid demand auction, today is your day! 30-year -- actually 29-year 11-month adding to an issue originally auctioned on the 14th of play. yield for that 30-year, 3.138. the offer side of the one issue was 3.145. 2.54 on bid to cover well above the 10-auction average. 52% on indirects, the best since july of '14. above the 10 auction average. direct 14.4 just a smidge below the 16% 10 auction average. this is a solid "a," the best auction of the week. longest maturity maybe the yields yesterday getting close to 3.25%. they've slipped a bit, might have drawn the demand in. >> that's from a tough grader mr. santelli. an "a." >>> let's get a check on the 10-year note before we go back to diana. it is at 2.41%. that is the yield right now on that 10-year. >>> back to diana olick. i'm so with you with the idea that people buy the monthly payment, that that's what really matters to them. how much is my cash flow going to be able to carry in terms of a monthly payment. one question here with rising rates

. >>> to the bond market now, rick santelli is tracking the action at the cme.he action. >> i'll track the action. when the auction buttoned up for the 5-years, the dow was down about 1.10. now it is down 1.50%. the intraday 5-year chart shows at 1:00 eastern we had volatility to the up side in yield. the auction was a bit below average. a year to date chart of 5s, what should jump out at you is how many important tops are around this 1.70 to 1.80 area. if you open the chart up for a full two years going back to the summer of 2013, you can see that we are at a very significant level. we always talk about the yield curve and the long end. but when you look at the same 2-year chart at 30s, it still has room to run to the up side. dollar index moving sideways through most of this. >> thank you for that rick santelli. >>> the dow is now down by about 145 points on amongst other things concerns about the ongoing greek debt talks. there's also throw into the mix, billionaire investor carl icahn who's sounding the alarm about the market on "fast money halftime report."

mainstay capital management joe is back with us and rick santelli joins us as well. david, let me start with you. on a day when we get these blowout auto sales figures, you also have a fed governor who says it's possible the economy's not strong enough to accept a interest rate increase this year. probably have to wait until next year. how do we reconcile these, you know, these divergent mixes of news? >> gdp that we're concerned about, we have employment or jobs numbers that look good. wage growth it's slightly improving. and then you have a blowout month for sales on u.s. auto sales, the best since 2005. we think when we look at the transaction price, it'll be one of the best months ever for the auto industry. and look it's a single industry, it is a good indicator of economic activity as is housing. so we think that, you know the economy continues to chug along here, growing all the same. >> phil is joining the discussion, having just brought us those numbers we're talking about, i'm amazed when we show shares of ford they're still stuck in the $15 range, is this

. >>> two-year notes up for auction and rick santelli at the cme. what is demand like and what grade have you got? >> nerms of grade, a b-minus, vacillating between a c-plus and b-minus. very strange auction. 26 million two years, yield at the auction .692. the yield was lower. it looked like .695 was trading on the offer side but nonetheless that was the good part. here's where it gets strained. weakest since december of '14. however, indirects were the strongest at 52.6 since february of 2010. the directs, weakest since january of 2015 which gives it that b-minus, but maybe it's odd because whether or not the fed actually normalizes in september, will have a large effect on maturities like two-year notes. tomorrow five-year on tap. total for the week mandy, 90 billion. back to you. >> thank you very much. b-minus for the two years and let's get a check on what the ten-year and 30-year bonds are doing. ten-year at 3.92% and earlier we did crack above 2.4% 2.4 being a key technical level and the 0-year bond currently sitting at 3.17, but we did earl

rick santelli, what are you seeing across that space?ually is trying to get to the original issue that created the problem of greece. maybe we have to go back to two dates, may 29, june 1, 2005. want to know why? tune in after the break. but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line. what's in your wallet? here at td ameritrade, they work wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. every auto insurance po

. >> let's get to the cme group and check in with rick santelli and at the santelli exchange. >> i haveld wrote an interesting piece, the income link between income inequality and slow growth. matthew, from reading your article, it seems as though if growth is the missing piece, whether it's united states, the eurozone, japan and indeed maybe globally in a global economy. what aspect is missing that we're not getting the kind of growth that we normally get post crisis, post recession? >> we need to incentivize innovation and job creation, jobs don't just come from the sky, they come from people who want to start businesses, are incentivized to do so we need to have a regulatory environment that facilitates that. we need to have a tax incentive structure that incentivizes that. >> here's the issue i see. the organization for economic cooperation and development, oecd. have put out many reports saying if you want to raise the lower and the middle class to higher levels, basically what you need to do is take from taxpayer a and give to taxpayer b. what do statistics tell us about that dyna

we still think they're going higher. >> let's bring in our own bond king, rick santelli for more on that move. by my back of the envelope calculation, rick the ten-year yield is up 25 26 basis points in just three days here. how much of that is what's going on with europe and the boon as well? >> i think -- well first of all, you nailed it. we settled at 212 friday. 25 basis points right to the tick. but get this bill we exactly or darn close to doubled where boon yields were. they settled at 88 came within a whisper of 90 basis points. i definitely think i totally agree with jeff. that the catalyst for this move in large part especially the final moves of the last several days, without a doubt, we had the ecb meeting today. and it isn't what they said. just the comfort factor of what they didn't say, didn't reassure investors that yields were going to do anything but continue doing what they've done. maybe the most interesting thing to think about is you know when you think about the eurozone, a developed economy with a bunch of smaller economies, but to think that a, their rate was dow

there at the big board and rick santelli in chicago. and jack i guess you're going to take issue with carl icahn? >> well it sounds like carl's trying to buy something and hoping the market goes down so he can buy it cheaper. the reality is that i agree with him as far as the high yield, that goes. i think there are certain sectors that are looking a little topee to me. and a lot of that might be because there's nowhere else to go in fixed income so they start running for yield. as far as corporate america goes, i don't think there's a comparison between what happened in '07 and what we're looking at today. you know, you're talking about a corporate balance sheet that is so much healthier than ever before. >> all right. hang on one second guys. we're going to get more comments. the other issue we're following right now, those developments in greece or regarding greece i guess i should say. sue herrera stepping in with developments right now. >> and here's what we're finding out. basically, the eurozone finance ministers have ended their

. >>> let's get to the cme group, rick santelli with the santelli exchange today.at of what i want to talk about today, atlanta fed updated gdp now. come to the board. on june 1st, it was up .8. on the 3rd, it was revised 1.1. today it moved up to 1.9. just shy of 2%. let's consider we are in the last part of the second quarter. june is it. and we've already had employment. we've already had retail sales. we've had a lot of the big data points, how many big data points are left? this seems to be a pretty accurate read as of late. i know it's not that old. but i think that's significant. now, let's stick with the theme and go to the data. i notice something strange at 8:30 eastern -- unlike employment, unlike the last couple of weeks where the sensitivity of the treasury rates to the upside seemed to be about hey, surprise me, give me some better data. well today, retail sales wasn't bad. as a matter of fact, you know i try to be objective with everything, with the market. nonseasonally adjusted. like to look at nonseasonally adjusted data and with retail sales it w

barron's top advisers and cnbc economics reporter steve liesman and up in chicago, our very own rick santellir game plan today looks like this -- boom, then doom. it's the note that has a lot of big money talking this morning. why stocks will continue to surge, then sink and sink hard. the author making the call is here live today. school of stock rock. using music to teach the finer points of finance. the band that does that takes the stage. we may even let liesman jam along with them. we do begin with the markets. reacting at this hour to the jobs report and whether the better-than-expected number means the fed will or should raise interest rates as soon as this month. there's been a lot of focus in the move on the bonds, 10-year move hitting the highest level since october today. so steve, the fed looks at the number and they do what? is june on the table? >> i don't think so i think you had that weak first quarter and all the negative comments, not only about the weak first quarter, but the lame second quarter rebound. it's been a really busy week and we do have a rebound happening. not o

our own rick santelli is with some top market voices around.a very special edition of the santelli exchange. >> you bet. definitely, carl, we have a couple of guys when it comes to the fundamentals, we have jim beanko, when it comes to the man in the trenches, the man of the hour on a wild day in the marketplace, jeffrey gundlach. doubleline. we're going to be doing a little conference this afternoon. as you look up and see a 233 yield in the 10's, see the 80, 90 bases points in bunds. summarize how you're feeling today, given what's going on in the market. >> we expected this kind of action we bay at the end of january. basically, it seems that european yields have been the anchor, right. the reason that people were buying u.s. bonds in january, at low, at yields that were really low and much lower than yields that they hated bonds at a year earli earlier. was a relative value argument. you got the bunds down to five basis points on the 10-year, which is hard to believe. rub your eyes when you see five basis points on a 10-year. now they're sk

. >> ism service, let's get to rick santelli. rick. >> 55.7. not anywhere near the 57 we're looking for and that follows an unrevised 57.8. so last time we're down at these levels, 55.7. i'm having to go way back actually. looks to me around april of last year. darn close to a year. this is very significant to pay attention. the service sector is the most vibrant part of the economy based on many data points. see the crowd behind me that's options. volatility is often a misused word. today there is options volatility in that. carl and the gang back to you. >> yeah rick 25 basis point moves higher in the ten year. let's get more reaction to what's going on with steve. >> steve. >> some of the internals are okay with this. obviously, the overall index is a disappoint. . the business activity index 59.5. a high level down from 61. new orders index still a high level and the employment index at 55.3. peter tells me if it's a change from what it was. i've got it here. hold on. the employment index down a touch from 56.7. all of them well above the 5

in the meantime the cne group and check in with rick santelli. >> rick. >> hi carl. good morning.out. thanks for taking the time this morning. >> good morning, rick. thanks for the invitation to join you again. >> basically, the conversations we have had in the past when you were on, footnotes on balance sheets were the unintended expenses that they had from deals made long ago regarding compensation and benefits to future employers, underfunded benefit liabilities of the future. before we get into the thick of that you just heard the supreme court ruling on the affordable care act aspect that dole out to states with regard to subsidies. is there anything you would like to comment on before we get in the thick of the underfunded liability herb u? >> obviously, whatever the federal government does, this is a federal issue. many a times, what happens at the federal level, rolls down to state an local government. it can have an impact on the cost of the state and local governments and the struggles they have to determine how they are going to allocate their resources. >> to the topic

rick santelli for us with the data. steve leisman is here to break it down.t -- >> what was the comment? >> rick is right. how to define this is beyond me. i feel like the girl in exorcist. my head went around three times and what happened with the pea soup. forget that. but the proxy went up. bad it was revised down, the prior one with. we know boeing had a tough month. the headline number here is essentially a report on boeing. they only delivered 11 aircraft in the month of may. it seems like from this report manufacturing is still challenged. and that's really the story. does not seem to have gathered its feet the way the rest of the economy has from the winter months and what happened in the first quarter. the consumer seems to be coming back. housing seems to be coming back. manufacturing now seems to be dipping. and we've had some negative reports there. i'm encouraged by the automanufacturers and the sales there. that should -- we still, i think, are having two factors inside manufacturing. the decline in oil prices a big part of the top end of manufa

joining our closing bell strange we have david kelly from jpmorgan heather hughes and rick santelli. rick, let me start with you this. move in interest rates. a pause today, but all the focus back and forth is about investors. what are they going to do? is everybody going to move out of fixed income pile into the stock market? is the upward trend going to resume? >> i don't believe in the great rotation. flows don't wear it out. i think i would take that off the table. in terms of will it continue? i think it will but nothing goes in a straight line. remember we are basically churning through june. we are not quite halfway there. it's the last month of the second quarter. gdp upgraded from 1.1% to 1.3 -- 1.3% to 1.9%, sorry, that's a nice raise. gdp is too strong for zero interest rate policies. keep it simple. settle at 3.11 in 30s friday. i would use the longest end to be a pivot. some of the bigger data points are out. if we settle under 3.41 tomorrow we could ease back further. it doesn't mean the macromove of higher interest rates. treasury market had the feel of higher rates for

the cme group, rick santelli and the santelli exchange. rick? >> thank you and good morning, carl.y special guest, my housing guy, mark hanson. thank you for taking the time mark. >> thanks, rick. >> i'm going to do something different. go through a little opening here and i want you to respond. yesterday we had existing home sales, 5.35 million. the high-water mark you see on chart was 7.25 million. low-water mark in 2010 3.45. let's play a decimal game. let's pretend this is somebody's salary in '05 you made $72,500, now you're making a 52,500 up from low of 32,500. high-water mark just shy of 1.4 million. in 2005 you made 139,000 now you're making 54,000600. your low is 27,000 the. being optimistic is wonderful, but when it comes to investing it has to be black and white. there isn't a lot of gray. are these numbers as terrific as we think they are? or am i right to put it in the context i did? >> well you have another component there. interest rates and that can be correlated to hours worked. back last year when interest rates were at 3.5%. right, which is what goosed this spri

. >> to bonds now and tracking the action at the cme is rick santelli. >> whether it's interest ratesn exchange. they are tied at the hip and wild today. if you look at the interday rates zoomed up and here's the important chart on may 1st. on the 13th of may, we had the high yield close of the year. we are still at 2:26. that's a level you want to pay attention to. it's all about foreign exchange and let's look at the euro versus the dollar. the euro flying the dollar and having a good day. we are switching and versus swiss. dollar versus yen. not real hard considering it traded up at about 125. # that's a big down day. back to you. >> the road to the white house is crowded. how do the home states of candidates fare when they crunch the numbers on the governors and former governors who have now declared for presidency? scott? >> hi tyler. 17 u.s. presidents dating back to thomas jefferson were governors, but not one of them had to with stand the scrutiny of our top states for business study. we will put the current crop the candidates to the test, coming up on power lunch. here at td

rick santelli what are we looking at? >> that told us everything we need to know.hey traded briefly through the highs and the low 240s or the interday resistant and it is a weak one, but hasn't come off that much and when you consider opening the chart up what you will find is it will be a high yield close. we go back to november. let's look at where the action is. interday of 5 versus 30. if you look at the chart starting in mid-2006 you can see the flattening and the comps to it. when you open it up to a 20-year, you can see that the average of this yield curve measurement from 30s to fives gets more accurate the longer the chart gets. the flattening today is critically important. what the market is asking or showing the fed what to do and the last chart, foreign exchange. look at the one-month chart. the dollar had a couple of great days. in the context of a month it had greater ones and many think the tide changed back to being the dollar bull if the fed is in the box on a normalization. >> thank you very much. rick just gave us a look at the ten-year numbers.

rick santelli in chicago. what is going on in bonds? >> it's pretty easy. rates are going up.ard part is to try to handicap how all that fits in with mario and janet and all of that. they will have a lot of charts. buckle up. no matter which way you put the charts together not as aggressive as last year's bond flash crash. we settled at 1212 and hovering at 236. this will be the new high yield close for the year. let's open it up to the last time we closed at these levels. november 12th of last year. you can see this. let's open up to make it a one-year chart. there is a lot of room on this. look at the left side of that. where we fell from you want to pay attention at this level. let's look at the two-day chart. every bit and more of a rocket ship up for him. considering they closed it at 48 and they came close to 90 basis points today. let's look at the chart the last time they closed. it was october 28th of last year. the last chart at the interday the euro versus the dollar, one of the days where the fixed income market was way wilder than the fx market although that hasn'

. >> okay let's send it over to rick santelli and catch up with events in chicago. lcome my wednesday guest home jenkins junior. thank you for taking the time holman. >> my pleasure love to be with you. >> about eight weeks ago you wrote an op-ed regarding water issues in california and i can't help but look at the news today, it seems as though pop in california out is and pop is in. with regard to electricity in the turn of the century there was a blackout and a recall for grey davis who you can you tie all of that up for me with what's going on with price, supply demand and good old-fashioned economy 101. >> back in the '90s, california thought it had a surplus of power so it mandated that all utilities buy their power needs on the day-ahead spot market and no longer let long-term contracts for power. as soon as producers realized what was going on. they started shutting down the power plants and prices wet through the ceiling because utilities have an obligation to find power, whether or not they can find it. it's the same situation with the water in california.

rick santelli is back. welcome back. >> hi., of course, everybody is using the expression data dependent but maybe the it's a normalization psychosis that the fed has and many central planners. the training wheels are on. using greece as an excuse the more i think about it i can see europe as an economic engine and using it that way but we all know that greece has issues but it isn't going to represent a sizable amount of cubic inches in that european economic engine. look at one and go days of ten-year note yields. we're drifting up off yesterday's lows. 230 to 240 seems to be a zone traders are comfortable with. should we go above or below the points it might be different. april 29th, we could clearly see that right below, look at the left center part of the chart, all low 230s. let's look at bund deals. they traveled a lot more ground but there are aspects to the patterns. if we want to look at the spread between the two, and i think this is good. what we need to do is look at bond yields from september in the u.s. ten-year

and rick santelli from chicago. the last few times the fed has met, we've seen a rally for the markets. are they getting ahead here? >> i think we are starting to see anxious investors come into this market. we've been watching the greece headlines since last week and how that's been adding momentum to our markets. not a much more than we've been focusing on. yes there's m&a activity. the data on the calendar is what we've been looking for. how the market reacts. it's i going to come from the wording coming out of washington. >> is this a buy the rumor? >> maybe it's fed fatigue. we've been through this so many times. i think we have been rallying appropriately. finally, i think we are digesting the fact sooner or later rates will be raised. it's not a bad thing. hints about a stronger economy. if it's done art flishgs we will continue to have this rally. >> what do you think about that? stocks rallying bonds up a little bit as well today? >> i would like to say maybe it was strong permits, but that doesn't fit the

. >> susan fulton ben willis and rick santelli in chicago. ben willis what do you make of today's market action and what are you expecting this next hour here? >> i would like to put more emphasis on what happened in china than what happened in greece. greece is a concern. more a point of contagion for the rest of the euro zone starting with the banking sector. coming in this morning, there is a great trade to buy the opening. i talked with jim cramer before we got started. he wasn't sure. that trade petered out early on and faded. my concern going into the bell if we hold 2068 on the s&p we may see buying opportunity to take a shot because we have been rangebound so long we are range bound. today could be one of those days that breaks us out of that range. >> how are you playing all of this uncertainty coming out of greece and the euro zone? >> greece is not a financial event. greece is a media event. greece is an itty bitty tiny country having a temper tantrum. we do what we've done. greece is not important to us. >> if greece leaves the eu

. >> rick santelli joins us from cme in chicago. >> good morning.big data tomorrow. that might be impacting kind of the recent trends in interest rates. look at a two-day chart of 10 year. a couple of things should jump out at you. first of all, before our market opening, we traded up over 2.40%. it's a compelling chart. you can see the drift lower already started long before we opened. we did make new lows at the time 8:30 eastern data was released. productivity and unit labor cost were outsized in a negative way than many expected. maybe the best chart, if you want to keep it simple to look at is a five-year note chart year-to-date. why? you see that spike that equals the spike on the right side of the chart? that is march 6th that was a big day. 5-year settles at 1.69%. intraday late yesterday looked like they would close above it but they didn't. that's what many traders are going to be looking at as one of their key points. the rest of the curve, 10s and 30s surpassed that high. let's open up the chart and go to the 10 year from november 12th.

david leibowitz is with us from post nine and rick santelli joining us from chicago. why don't you think we've got the market cataclysmic response? today we had a bounce. china was strong last night. we are not getting the kind of big volatility that might have been expected. >> this wasn't a lehman moment. it wasn't a big surprise. greece if it stands alone is one thing. this contagion if it goes to france italy portugal spain, ireland, that's when you have a big fluctuation and big problem. right now in the short term the markets don't care. >> what are you doing with clients' money. recommending they maintain exposure to europe or what about the municipal bond market? >> they should maintain their exposure to europe including greece. particularly the protestery markets as an opportunity to add exposure. high yielding municipal bonds are high yielding for a reason. there is extra risk embedded in securities. we are sticking to the more highly rated gos and revenue bonds. that it's better play. you get the tax advantage status. >> your point was well taken. don't wat

rick santelli at the cme. what was demand like rick? >> straight-up 1:00 eastern. demand, i gave it a b-plus. the yield at auction for 21 billion 9 million 11 month securities 2.461. 27.47s trading in the one issue market. that's a strong grade pop right there. everything else is definitely above average. 2.74% bid to cover. above the 2.68% 10-year auction average, 57.9 on indirects above 53. 10 auction average, 12%. this is 12.1%. as i said b-plus. tomorrow will be the last of the coupon supply with 13 billion$13 billion we opened. 30-year bonds. >> we'll take a check on the 30-year yields standing at 3.191% whereas the tlt is about $1.16 and change so far. the tlt is down 8% this year. let's get a "market flash." >> melissa, h&r block coming off its session lows a day after the tax preparation giant reported its revenue climbed for a third straight year. the company led s&p 500 gainers yesterday. it is not the worse o'performer down. credit suisse downgraded to neutral from a prior outperform saying, among other things the stock is currently fairly valued. the fi