we're joined by rick santelli with the santelli exchange. >> as i said on the tease, it's not an end of the world, it's not your top tier manufacturing index. but, at this point, every trader i bump into paid attention to it, because it is just another lob of a softball number in manufacturing. even nonmanufacturing service sector numbers were dipping down a bit. much lower in the 55 year than we expected. let's just take a quick glance as to some of the numbers we've seen. if you look at ism, the most recent read was 48.6. that was the weakest level since the summer of 2009. if you look at the chicago pmi, 48.7. well, the low for the year was 45.8 in february. but 6 of 11 reads this year are below 50. if you look at empire, at minus 4.59, well, doesn't sound good. but it's not even the weakest. going back in time, here's the last four numbers we received. and if you look at some of these levels, they're weakest virtually that we've seen since 2012 in terms of some of the depths. as i said on dallas, that minus 20.1, it's the second weakest number also since the summer of 2009. so yo

rick santelli with the santelli exchange. rick. >> thanks, andrew. listen, when it comes to the fed, the hypothesis is that they can't go too fast, they have to go gradual. this year gdp annualized is going to be less than last year. you know, i crunched the numbers in yesterday's santelli exchange. even if we come up with close to 2.5% in the fourth quarter, which is, like, one full percent higher than anybody is looking for, so i don't buy into the notion that it's the economy or it's the unemployment rate because i really don't believe the unemployment rate is pegged to where it is, and i don't think the fed does either based on those metrics, of course, but, you know, we're going to have jim bianco on after the new year, and he is going to give us an unemployment rate with the participation rate held in that constant form, and that's very enlightening. back to the point, it's all about how the markets may be disrupted, but my hype thooesz thesz is different. now, whether it's correct or not, time will tell. i hope it is. the fact of the matter an

let's send it over to rick santelli at the cme for the santelli exchange. >> thanks, simon.al one of the year. i hope viewers and listeners enswroi these spots as much as i enjoy doing them and being the last session of the year. i think we are going to call this horses and saddle bags, and there's a lot of economic horsepower, and i think when we look at economic horsepower, the united states, obviously, swrumps right out in front of the pack. now, there are issues, the dollar, multi-nationals. we had alsandra discussing chicago pmi today, the weakest since july of 2009. one of the special questions was regarding what the outlook for 2016 is. i also found the transportation costs moving up. a lot of merger and acquisition, a lot of consolidation because with few prices being so low, i think amazon, think manufacturers in general, that these things are going to get passed along. part of that is the dollar, but forgetting the dollar for a minute, diversified economy, and i think that's a big plus. now, it's not to say there aren't issues, but i think the bigger issues are let

rick santelli in chicago.next, real insight into how -- we'll talk to a company powering self-driving tech for google. >> david hall is a ceo and co-founder of -- he joins us this morning. david, good morning. good to have you with us. >> good morning. >> we got this news -- reports i would say this morning of this partnership between google and ford, which has some people thinking that we're about to make a big turn in this evolution. how do you read it? is. >> well, isn't that a rumor? unfounded rumor at this point? >> we're going to find out. if you read yahoo autos. >> i can wait until then. so -- >> how do you then -- how do you characterize the evolution of this technology being right in the middle of it? >> yeah. well, first, i'm the inventor of the spinning thing that you see on top of the google cars and also the ones that are used in the ford cars, and i'm kind of in the center of this whole movement, and so it's starting to become a very interesting movement as everybody is getting behind it and the

we'll see you next hour. >>> let's get over to rick santelli at the cme group for the santelli exchangegood morning again, rick. >> good morning. thank you. i'd like to welcome my guest, andy brenner. thanks for taking the time this morning. >> thanks for having me. happy new year. >> happy new year. you wanted to talk about contrarian viewpoints, how that worked in 2015, and what it may mean for investors in 2016. so, give me your best. >> rick, i really don't like the european sovereign space. i don't like bunds, i don't like oats, i don't like anything over there. they're priced for an aggressive ecb, and i think draghi is out of bullets. i think you're starting to see now that the euro is starting to strengthen, vi vis-a-vis the dollar. by the time they raise the second time of the second quarter now you will start talking about bubbles in the u.s. and i think some of those may burst. so, you know, where i think the first quarter will be okay, i think the second half of the year, basically where we stalled last year, august, september. i think those could be rough times for the u.s.

rick santelli has the santelli exchange. >> when i looked at the trade deficit for today, it wasn't shockingt came on a little over $60 billion. of course, that's in the red. i guess some of the details were a little bit surprising to me. let's go to the bottom of the board first. we look at today's numbers, minus 65 point versus 61.27 last month. it was a pretty decent revision. one could say the trade deficit is smaller. i guess who bothers me is that there's not going to be huge gdp revisions, but there will be some. consider the reason we improved but are still high is because both imports and exports are both down. they're both down a very close amount, which is going to roll back the expectations with big revision. i like to look at atlanta gdp now. i think that's worth saying. now it goes to the growth story. the growth story reflects many things. let's look at gdp. we get close to finishing the fourth quarter. i put the last three years that we know of, 2012, 1.3, 2013, 2 .45. last year 2 parking lot 52. this year i make some assumptions. here's 2015. 3.369 and 2.0. we don't know the

simon, back to you, sarah as well. >> rick santelli, thanks very much.to go to our top story. the fed finally moving and hiking interest rates. our own steve liesman was in the news conference with janet yellen. also spoke with greenspan. very timely to talk to him. i guess you had to be happy with the market reaction. >> i think so. before that, i want to get to some breaking news. i just got off the phone with luke cramer. they do trade in the fed funds rate. it was trading at 9:00 around 35 basis points. it is close to the mid-range in the fed's target of 37.5 now that it is 25 to 50. there was a major question about whether the fed could hit its rate and what it would have to do to hit it. with he will learn early this afternoon about the financial operations to help hit that target. today, as sarah mentioned, i did talk to alan greenspan. he said he was not surprised that the markets rallied after the fed hike. >> it became apparent that the fed was just going to raise the rates and then not do a whole series of rates. basically, the markets just sa

. >> let's check in with rick santelli in chicago. orning, rick zbhood moric. >> good morning, carl. the word "data points" all throughout the globe whether it was china or the eurozone. but to be true, it has been the area we've been drifting from a 235 level. it was a highwater mark not long after the last employment report as we look at the next one. maybe data dependent isn't the strategy many believe the fed is truly following. but at least those data points do seem to fit in with the notion of how much emphasis is placed on strong or weak reports of late. if you look at the yield spread, 10s minus 2 still a bit flattening. the rest of the curve has taken as bit of a pause. it seems to have subsided a bit. not too different than tens minus fives. but if we consider some of the data points that came out today, we're looking at what? 6.2, 6 president 3 unemployment in germany? 10.7 in the rest of the eurozone. let's look at october 31st. it's a pretty aggressive chart. that's german equity. put the dollar index to the same point and

let's get over to cme group and rick santelli with the santelli exchange in chicago. good morning. >> good morning. it's all about manufacturing. we have all become very much focused on that sector even given the fact that it's 12% of gdp because it's the canary in the coal mine, so to speak. to that i would like to welcome my guest today, chad nutrey, head economist from the national association of manufacturers. welcome. >> thanks. >> your most recent read, i'm feeling fortunate it is early. 59.6. these are quarterlies. it's not a finalized read. compared to previous quarters, this is the lowest level since q4q dominguq4 2012. >> 91% of our members were positive in december of last year, so we've seen sentiment fall dramatically over the course of the last 12 months. those global headwinds have been significant. lower crude oil prices have hit the energy sector and the supply chain hard. in general, manufacturers are anxious right now. and the survey reads that. >>> i'll tell you the thing that interests me. when you look at the respondents, about 13% have no opinio

let's get to rick santelli. >> wow. okay.f we look at industrial production, it was down 0.6, last time 0.4, now down 0.10. here's the running totals, we have eight negative numbers two positive numbers, one zero. not a good record if you're monitoring manufacturing. let's get to the utilization rate. 77, also a disappointment following 77.5. and 77 is the lowest rate of the year. it's actually the lowest rate going all the way back to january of '14. here's another interesting little tidbit. we have not had a 79 handle on utilization rates all year. but yet we finished slightly over 79% at the end of last year. so it gives you this feel of the deterioration both sequentially on a month over month and year over year basis. and this is something we need to pay attention to. it may only be 12% of the economy, but it leverages up nicely as a good multiplier, when you're handle is on gdp, you will take it anywhere you can get it. david faber, back to you. >> wanted to update viewers on battle we've been following between norfolk

kayla, back to you. >> rick santelli in chicago. , thanks. >>> it's not a great day for chipolte. shares slipping as fears over e. coli continue to grow. jane wells is live in l.a. with the latest. >> fortunately, no one has died, but the damage has been done to chipolte's reputation. shares are down 30% in three months. first there was the e. coli outbreak that started in late october. then the norovirus situation at boston college this month, and now a second strain of e. coli sickening five people in kansas, north dakota, and oklahoma in late november. they all ate at chipolte. no culprit has been found, and it's thought to be produce, but the cdc has not nailed it down. jp morgan has downgraded shares to neutral, and significantly lowered estimates for fiscal year 2016 to a little over $14 from nearly $16, and it's lowering 2017 estimates nearly $1 to $19.13 over $20. btig maintains its buy rating and $664 price target. saying it's frustrated by the continued negative news, but "we believe the company has taken the appropriate st

rick santelli with the santelli exchange. >> we've all heard that expression.hen it comes to the fed, i really do think that some of the people on the buy side are very happy about dots. many of the big fund managers and traders, hedgees they like the dots. the dots aren't very accurate, but the time in between them is usually enough the dots insight some volatility, and it's traded. whether they're actually right in the macroor not, sometimes doesn't matter. yesterday's fed did something that makes everybody scratch their head a bit. there were several questions. our own steve liesman. as to why now? now, i have any own impression of why now. we're not in a crisis. zero is too low. horrible timing to raise rates, but they need to be higher and maybe there's events out there or there's ongoing issues of mal investments or credit or just mispriced risk where having some cushion or insurance or rates have been higher or starting the process here's how i will frame it. >> raising rates. what is for the most part already a slow economy. how can you trade this with

john, over to you. >> thanks, sue. >>> rick santelli with the final santelli exchange of the week. er to you, rick. >> i know. it's always sad when we have the friday exchange. i wish we could do it on saturday. ira, you know, we were talking off camera. listen, nothing gets financial times. one of my favorite reading materials, but when you live in an age where button does everything, versus whether it used to be people when we were in the pits, it has a ram fiction. once that ball starts rolling down the hill, it's hard to stop and say, time-out, i want to do these trades over. >> right. correct. the s.e.c. is remiss because weave had how many of these now? people putting out tweets. it has -- it moves billions of dollars. who is held responsible? >> i always hear this. well, everybody has the ability to be involved in the tweet stream, so it's fair. >> no. >> it isn't so much a question of fair. what it is is if anything isn't 100% right, you can't pull it back, and it has huge unintended ramifications. >> so many are built on algarit mick reader. >> let me get this straight, now

see you in 15. >> let's go to the cme group and get to rick santelli in the santelli exchange. >> hi,now, this morning we had an ism manufacturing that came out at 48.6. that is the first time we're below 50 since around thanksgiving of 2012. it's the lowest level since june of 2009. boy, 2009 was a wild year. 2008 was a wild year. we have some charts for you. let's look at 20 charts in both manufacturing, like the ism we received today, and then let's look at the bigger part of the economy, the service sector. nonmanufacturing. obviously as you look at the two charts, you can see they look very much the same. the service indicator which we're going to see tomorrow has moved a bit higher. it's moved a bit lower. last time we had this divergence was in 2004. now, how will it turn out this time? i can't tell you. what i can tell you is this. we often talk about comer as a sentinel commodity. if you watch copper, it's in cars, houses. it's important to manufacturing. it will give you a glimpse of the future at a time in the past that used to be correct until a country like china started

. >> let's check in with rick santelli this morning to get the temperature on bonds. good morning, rick. >> good morning. boy, we're going to need a much bigger thermometer i think. if you continue to monitor the great recalibration, all of these big pieces of issues going on whether it's mergers, all of it, in many respects is the lead in to recalibration. why? because of divergence of it. our central bank. the first to try to mop up liquidity. everybody else scrambling to try to figure out how to keep markets more contained because pretty much emerging markets sum it up are having huge drops in currencies trying to keep rates firm to counteract that. we had strong data, didn't we? i won't say strong. retail sales were good on headline. nothing terrific. control group was pretty good. as peter writes, if you look at this on a year-to-date basis, prices are moving higher. look at intraday of tens. it's like diving off the cliff because of equity markets and emerging markets and everything i described. look at two day puts it in better context. let's look at the dax. yo

rick santelli, thank you, sir. preciate it. >>> certainly much of what rick just talked about and the problems in the bond market, not all, but much, are related to the price in oil because the amount of high yield debt that's been sold off by energy and gas-related companies, and guess what oil continues to fall as well, which is exacerbating the problem. west texas intermediate now falling to a new seven-year low. a ten-year low if you factor in inflation and natural gas also a story, folks. nat gas is at $1.98. we're back below $2. 14 bucks a btu seems so five years ago but it was. let's get now to jackie deangelis at the nymex. jackie? >> hi, brian. oil prices are lower today and i don't want to be a fearmonger because they are having an impact on the other markets as well but it appears oil probably will continue to go down. we haven't heard anything that is lifting our spirits here. as a matter of fact, the iea was out with a reportoday saying the oil glut is going to continue to the end of 2016 and that it's

back to you. >> rick santelli in chicago. rick, thank you very much. a reminder, janet yellen will explain more about this decision at their live press conference. we'll take that here in about 22 minutes. right now let's get back to our panel. joining us still bob dahl, scott minerd, anika khan joining us as well. scott minerd, your reaction? >> this statement i think is more dovish than i would have expected. the fed clearly opened up the door that they're looking at things other than employment and inflation. they're acknowledging they're going to take other factors into account, which is telling me they're concerned about the credit markets and what's going on, and they're trying to give themselves flexibility. the other thing, brian, was the fact that they committed to keeping the balance sheet at the same size for a period of time well into tightening. so i think this is a very dovish statement. >> anika khan, welcome. do you think the fed in doing what scott just referenced is suggesting that perhaps they are less data dependent than they were?

let's hop over to chicago and check in with rick santelli and get the santelli exchange. >> hi, carl.isten, we're going in a completely different direction than i thought we would go about ten minutes ago. the reason is because at the bottom of the hour we had the results. for normal weekly auctions. you know, we do bill auctions every week and the results were somewhat extraordinary, yes, but maybe not to some is people. let's operate under the assumption that they'll raise rates. one nor the wreeld a little over 2 basis points. that's the highest yield in the bill auction. this sits about halloween of 2013. the year bill, and obviously there's a lot more eyes most likely focused on the one year bill. it had a rayed rate of 74 basis points and according to my notes, and i looked at them about 40 times, i couldn't find a higher yeel yield in an auction since thanksgiving of 2008. it isn't shock, but yet it really underscores the dynamic as simple as it might be that helps us kind of flush in all the issues of the day. you rnl, when we talk credit bubbles and i talked to all my sources

rick santelli, good to have you on this program.ll have you back soon for certain, and i know liesman, we'll be hearing from you throughout the remainder of this day based on what the fed chair says in those remarks and, of course, the q & a which you'll see live in a matter of moments because, coming up, we're going to take you live to that room right there. the economic club of washington d.c. fed chair janet yellen, set to speak any moment now. then take some questions, and as we head to break, take a look at the s&p sectors right now. tech is in the green. nothing else is. back after this. surprise!!!!! we heard you got a job as a developer! its official, i work for ge!! what? wow... yeah! okay... guys, i'll be writing a new language for machines so planes, trains, even hospitals can work better. oh! sorry, i was trying to put it away... got it on the cake. so you're going to work on a train? not on a train...on "trains"! you're not gonna develop stuff anymore? no i am... do you know what ge is? >>> hello. i'm sue herrera. here

rick santelli has got that. rick?ew home sales, following a big miss on existing home sales yesterday. this is november, folks. we're expecting the number north of 500,000, that's 500,000 seasonally adjusted units. we ended up 490,000. it doesn't end there. 495 last look, now downgraded to 470. if we look at 490, how does that stack up? that would be the weakest since september at 447. but considering what we have with 470, it changes things. what's fascinating is the high water mark was february, 545,000. best since february of '08. definitely a small fraction of ten years ago when it was 1.3 million. let's go to university of michigan sentiment, 92.6 december final read. sequentially comparing it to 91.8, the mid read. we throw that away. 92.6 is not too bad. the best read we've had since july. the strongest read? the very first read of the year, 98.1. the best since january of 2004 when it was well over 103. so, michigan may be the best data point at least today that was released normally. income and spending are a

rick santelli is at the cme group in chicago. >> good morning, david.w, treasuries really are sort of floating in to the holiday week. we had a lot of volatility in many markets. the analogy i used before the fed meeting was expect a roller coaster ride, isn't the real key if you get off roughly the same place you get on, volatility is intense, but it ends up being just volatility. that's sort of what happened with much, except for the dollar index with normalization. the range is pretty snug. consider this. on the tuesday before the fed meeting, we had a 2.27 ten, a 2.99 30. though moved the most. when you look at twos and fives, they settled. if you look at november 2nd for ten-year, you can see the pattern there. we are reverting back into a 2.20s home base range. the spreads were getting ready for this, a lot of money to be made. tens minus twos are flattening. new years may change a lot of those dynamics. foreign exchange, that's where the whole game, the battlefield, everything, miscalculations there, but it's all about relationships and other cou

let's send it down to rick santelli, last trading day of 2015. rick, what are you focused on?sed on the last trading day's data. chicago pmi headline number, about he low 50 by quite a bit since july of '09. that made 7 out of 12 below 50. we have the expert. she talks to the respondents. headline number down 5.8. 7 out of 12, below 50. 42.9. any comment on that part. a real disappointment of the year. we average this year at 50.4 and 60.7 in 2014. that gives you the scope of where we are. the story of a strong doll are a. weaker commodity prices. >> not only is it below 50. below 40. >> new orders, production, employment. what's a company to do, right? you have bodies. you have bodies coming into the last month of the year. you know your new orders are low. demand is weak. this isn't the greatest picture to go into january. it is minus 17.2. how much are they working it through? >> these are numbers that we haven't seen since 2009. the strongest number was the first. the weakest is the last. let's talk delivery. >> this is peak season, the lowest in six years. we are preparin

rick santelli.ome back, a trader's perspective on the recent jump in oil prices and whether that's a sign of things to come in the new year. feeling the heat in december. one ski resort will tell us how its business is coping with what could be a 75-degree day today in the northeast. we're back in just a moment. >> what, 75? when you're not confident you have complete visibility into your business, it can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. at&t's innovative solutions connect machines and people... to keep your internet of things in-sync, in real-time. leaving you free to focus on what matters most. >>> look at where we are on oil prices. clearly,crude, whether we like it or not, is front and center for the markets at the end of the year this time around. >> enjoying a bit of a santa claus rally up for the third straight day. just off of the highs, below $38 a barrel for light street crude. tom joins me this morning. this rally that we are seeing. are you buyin

let's get to rick santelli for the annual new year's celebration on the floor of the chicago merc. rick? >> happy new year, rick. >> it was up there but now, jimmy, it's all on the floor. hey, listen, happy new year to all the viewers, all the investors out there. remember one thing, we still have people in chicago! yeah! 2016 will welcome you. janet yellen, we'll be watching! happy new year. >> all right. happy new year, rick, to you and everybody at the chicago merc. we have some serious breaking news from dubai in a scary situation. here again is sue herera. >> absolutely, brian. here is what we know. a fires a engulfed the address hotel located in downtown dubai. these pictures are coming to us from the associated press. this fire broke out just a few hours before dubai's massive fireworks display was set to go off. it is in the address hotel. it has engulfed at least 20 floors according to the associated press. we don't know the cause of that fire. we don't have any word on casualties. we do know that first responders are on the scene. once again, it is a massive fire in a tigh

you are wise, rick santelli. >> peter costa, commodities are at the center of all of this sex tift, whether it's the long end of the bond curve or stocks as we have been talking about. oil strategists did not get the price of oil right in 2015 or in 2014, nobody predicted the dramatic slide. how often earth can you predict what the stock market is going to do next year if nobody knows what's going happen with oil? >> you can't. it's a fool's errand. you can't predict it. you go with the knowledge and understanding of what the economy or what you think the economy is going to do first, second, third and fourth quarters and try to figure out, you know, based on historical precedent where the market is going to go, but i don't think, you know -- it's very, very hard to predict what the markets can actually do next year. there's going to be one person that's going to get it right and 500 that get it wrong and you never hear from them again, but the one person you do hear get it right, which is probably me, you will hear about it endlessly. >> that's why we love you, peter, you are so modest. >>

rick santelli is at the cme. what's going on? >> if you just looked at an intraday of 2 year note yields, you pretty much can't pick out much. if you go down the curve to 10s, the yields moved down before they came back a bit. there was some flattening. let's look at 10s minus 2s. we have the flattest curve just above 120 going all the way back to february but look at the 20 year chart of that same 10 minus 2 spread. we're on the precipice of comps going back to '08 and beyond which makes sense considering it was the first tightening in almost ten years. brian, back to you. >> rick, thank you, sir. >>> deadly weather across much of the central united states. you had tornadoes, you had blizzards, heavy rain killing more than 20 people across three states. unfortunately, more bad weather is on the way. here is the weather channel's chris warren. >> we are tracking multiple threats today and beyond. starting off right now with a look at the severe weather threat, where the best chance for some of the strongest storms will be. anywhe

let's get over to the cme this morning and check in with rick at the santelli exchange. ck. >> well, good morning, carl. you know, there's a lot of talk as many in the traders i deal with and sources are trying to get ready for what the fed will do next week. i call it the great recalibration. no matter how it turns out, though, the one issue that keeps coming up is collateral, and collateral in the form of things like high quality collateral. treasuries, boons. there is a shortage of high walt collateral. there isn't really a shortage of the paper itself. there's not really a shortage of t-bills or boons. it's a lot like diamonds. anybody who has really studied diamonds, are they really a rare stone? the russians have caverns filled with them, debeers, they have human unkus inventories, but they're still very expensive and considered rare. why? because what's in the caves, the caverns and warehouses isn't what you get to buy? they trickle some out, and that trickle out amount keeps everything priced at a certain level. it's a lot like what's happened to high quality coll

rick santelli, it will be a big week. >> yes, and many will want to look at various parts of the marketlooking at it like a bunch of tired joggers. those represent the sectors, and the joggers and runners no matter how tired you are, you behave differently when you see the finish light in sight. but we saw some equity stabilization. so you see two year up four basis points. the long end is up five, tens, and thirties. the highest is the five year, and let's look at the one and two day, certainly showing we're elevated a ritle bit. so you want to watch and see what behavior is. traders may be a little nervous loading up on treasuries. looking at two-day booms, yes they moved up, but not as much. . it is recalibrated by ten basis points. if you look at bund starting in never, but let's chip to the yuan. it could be the seventh straight down session. you see the move, july, 2 2011. so we will continue to monitor. november 1'd start clearly show that's this 110 level is something to pay attention to. everyone is trying to handicap what the fed will do. >> well said. oil got down to well blo

in the fall of 2014 the drug was used experimentally for ebola. >>> let's send it over to rick santellior an update from the cme and the santelli exchange. hi, rick. >> ira harris is the first guest of the week, in between the holidays. when we travel for the holidays, some people take the interstate. we'll talk about inter and intra spread relationships with sovereign debt. when it comes to our rates moving to severely low levels over the last 18 months, relative value trade when bund yields moved under 10 basis points. is there another side of the mountain to that trade, not only with respect to the u.s. but to bunds as the quality comp against the southern economies where you pointed out were 85 basis points. these things are out of whack. >> yes. the best credit in europe is the bund. why? everything else is pegged to the german credit card. if the germans determine that, hey, we don't want to support this anymore, they're the co-signer for every borrower. we know that sometimes you don't want to be the co-signer. 2016 is going to be a phenomenal year of volatility. not just the sto

back to you. >>> rick santelli in chicago for the santelli exchange. rick. >> well, thank you. welcome my guest bob leshefski. thanks for taking the time pre-new year's eve. you're definitely one of the smartest i've dealt with with regard to obamacare. so let's get right into it. give my the reality of enrollment and not just enrollment for the year we're closing out, but a bigger picture enrollment feel. >> well, first of all, in a perfect world, the insurance companies will want to have about 75% of the eligible group, those eligible for subsidies, signing up to be sure that we've got enough healthy people signed up to pay the claims of the sick. in 2015, we're ending the year at about 35%. so in order for obama care to really be on track here, we need about double the enrollment. the administration's announced some pretty incredible numbers about 8 million signed up so far, but those numbers don't tend to hold. at the end of the 2015 enrollment, they said there were 12 million signed up, that fell on 9 million. so we really have to wait for things to shake out, but they're

. >> to you the cme group, let's go to rick santelli, and get to the santelli exchange. t place to start, if you want to talk commodities is to show the crb index. the chart i'm showing starts in the summer of 2002 because the neighborhood we're residing in had in terms of price on that index around 175 is virtually the lowest we've been since 2002. as you look at that chart, a couple of things should jump out at you. we peak just under 500 in 2008. then we made a big bottom many months later at 2009. we came nowhere near getting back up to that peak, and, of course, we've taken out that 2009 bottom. why is any of this important? for much of this year my channel, myself, we've done -- tried to do a great job for you viewers and listeners to bring you as much commodity information and the reception into the global economy wasn't a pretty one. we've even got tony the point where you look at oil and you decide how you want to trade stocks, but what i'm about to talk about is mostly a lot of the other commodities, but not necessarily completely not inclusive of what's going o

carl, back to you. >> thank you very much, rick santelli. see you soon. >>> when we come back, what tim cook at apple is saying about the company's new iphone case. >>> hyperloop technology planning on building a test track in las vegas. a step toward elon musk's vision for transportation. chipotle is back up almost 4%, back in a couple minutes. >>> i probably wouldn't call it the hump. that was apple's ceo tim cook talking about apple's new iphone charging case, which has gotten mixed reviews. cook added, have you ever used other cases and tried to get them on? it is very difficult. if you are charging your phone every day, you probably don't need this at all. if you are out hiking and you go on overnight trips, it is kind of nice to have. >> i like what technology is doing with wireless charging. i don't know. don't take this away from me. >> i wouldn't dare. >> i wouldn't dare. if we get version 2, it probably won't be a wholesale reinvention. will you upgrade on that. >> i have to see. i like my watch very much. my favorite thing is the

morgan, oneok, cabot oil all down. >> dominic chu, thank you very much. >>> let's get over to rick santelligroup for santelli exchange. >> we're gearing up for something, that's for sure, i think it's more like the movie rocky n th rocky, in this corner, you have janet yellen, in this corner you have mario draghi. >> it will be fun, the great divergence. in three hours janet yellen will give a speech, testimony tomorrow. and draghi will have his press conference tomorrow. in 24 hours it should be clear we have more qe coming out of europe and we'll cut rates here. rates in europe and the united states will move in opposite directions for the first time in a long time which is being dub t dubbed as the great monetary divergence. >> out to seven year, it's been out to nine-year in the euro curve before, over 40 negative in the two-year in a euro note. if you wanted to intentionally create negative pricing pressures, deflationary pressures how would you do that? this is a great question. the economists will differ on it. i think the act of creating negative interest rates creates deflation. i

keith fitzgerald, keith bliss is with us here, and rick santelli is there in chicago. keithably, what is this rally about? we keep saying, gee, you can draw lines back to oil, yet we've had volume it illustrate this week. you've seen that in, there are a couple things that are driving the market if you look over the last two weeks of sessions, it's clearly fed policy, actually i thought the rally was going to be sparked on the oil movie up today, but opec said they're pumping more oil than they ever have. a couple things that people need to keep an eye on is a widening out of the corporate bond yields between high yields and high grade bonds. we start to see a sell-off. is the transports suddenly got oversold. they've seen a dramatic pullback of about 7% since the end of november. that is in the face of falling energy prices. that's a divergens and something that we don't ordinary see. you see the transports rally when oil pulls in, so i think we're going to churn a bit, get more focus next week. i think a lot of the fed move is already priced in to the market, but we'

let's get to rick santelli for the exchange from chicago. today we have a special monday guest, former st. louis fed president and ceo, william poole, '98 to 2008, professor william poole. thank you for taking the time this monday morning. >> good to be with you, rick. >> after reading all the material to prep for this interview, one thing jumps out at me. you had a line that reads "the maximum level of employment is largely determined by nonmonetary factors." you made my head explode, professor. if that's the case, why does the fed continually say they're making progress on the dropping unemployment rate, largely have in the past up to eventually, because it is a catalyst for normalization, not really stressed the labor force rate participation drop what is the fed doing if it's a nonmonetary set of factors? can you explain? >> rick, that line that you just read is not my line, it's the fed's own line. the fed says that the maximum level employment is determined by nonmonetary conditions. that's what every decent economist believes. here's

. >> let's get to rick santelli at the cme group in chicago. rick? >> good morning, david.body seems to be waiting for the fed. today is the first day. what's going on? rates up, dollar up, mainly because stocks stabilized and given us more than stabilization. giving us 200 points. these are the highest two-year note yields should they close at these levels since may of 2010. only a couple basis points away from 1%. year to date, five-year fascinating. the reason i picked year to date, here we hover around the 169, 170. right in the middle there, the five-year, it's high of the year in june, close to 179. two day of tens, the long end is not keeping up with it. that's why the curve has had flattening over the last several months. the november 1st chart shows you. you want to pay attention to the post two unemployment high yields around 234, 235. bunds, up about eight basis points. dollar/yuan, seven days in a row down to the dollar, today is number eight. down again. these are the lowest level against the green back since july of 2011. carl, back to you. >> thank you very m

get the santelli exchange with rick. >> hey, rick. >> hi, carl.ou know, i really enjoy steve -- or phil "four on four" lebeau when he talks about the run rate on autos that he talked about yesterday. it really is quite amazing. in the morning what did we learn? we learned that we had the weakest level of employment as defined by the ism since late 2009. first time under 50 since november of 2012. reconciling those. well, i'm going to leave some of that to you, but i'm going to give you some important bullet points to consider while you ponder those divergent thoughts on each side of the manufacturing aisle. first of all, before i get to my board, look at the 20-year chart that we're showing on the screen right now. that's the annualized run rate going back to 1995. okay? now we're going to come to my white board and basically this is the same chart. listen, it's pretty easy. if this was a chart of a commodity or interest rate as a technician, a couple of things really jump out at you. we call it crossing the canyon. happened in the stock market in

. >>> in the meantime, let's get to the group in chicago, the santelli exchange with rick. >> good morning, carl. you know, in your side mirror on your car, most cars in the last 15 years have this little thing written, objects may be closer than they appear. >> it's a reflection that has some distortions. just changing the reflection entirely. indexes are tracking. you come up with a single number by putting a lot of ingredients in. you put a lot of ingredients in. you get a cake. once you have the cake, it's very difficult to extract or see exactly what's in it. so when we think of an etf on high yield, i'm not picking on them. it tracks the market i-bos dollar liquid high yield index. i remember many years ago, being on committees here at the chicago board in the '80s, coming up with a corporate bond contract, a lot like the treasury securities. they have a deliverable quality that really gives a standardization there. so the contract for the most part is easier to price. when we tried to construct an index, the problem was, we couldn't quite find the exact audience that would be willin

. >> coming up, we'll speak to the analyst cutting his price target on apple, but, first, rick santellii think i have an idea of what you are watching today, but why don't you go ahead and tell us. >> where he. we all know. we're all looking for the fed and nimization. we're going to talk about some other economies in countries that tried to come off ultra low rates. maybe more important, the clock is ticking, but not in the way you may think. come back and we'll talk about what you should be paying most attention to. >> coming up on the halftime show we are counting down to the fed decision with two of the best minds in the markets. leon cooperman, chairman and ceo of owe mega advisors and jeffrey gundlach, founder and skoer. we talk stocks, bonds xwshgs so much more. plus, our traders game plan. what do do after the fed announcement no matter what chair yellen does today? carl, we'll see you in about 15 minutes or so. big show coming up. >> soupdz good, scott. thank you very much. >>> r.w. baird lowering its iphone estimates for 2016 and the price target for apple due to, guess what,

susan fulton, rick santelli is in chicago for us. mike santoli hates this when i refer to the santa claus rally. whatever you call it, it's day three of a pretty good rally. >> i think it's more of this volatility that we're going to experience. it's going to go into the beginning of january as well. we're virtually unchanged, though, from the end of october, when you really look at the numbers across the board. if you were to look at the charts of the major indexes, the dow and the s&p in particular, we've really been consolidating into an indecision triangle type of formation. we probably won't get some clarity on that until the end of january. so you're going to see this trade is really occurring more along the lines of what we saw happen with energy, higher oil prices translates to greater consumption, which us a tenoste means greater economic earnings. the energy complex. basic materials as well as the industrials. i think we'll see a rally for santa claus. >> are you buying growth names? value names? how do you think 2016 looks

rick santelli tracking it. yesterday's 10-year was a c plus. how about the demand for the 30 years? >> we gave it b as in boy. 58 billion in supply comes in the form of 13 billion 30s reopen so technically 29 year 11 month securities. the yielded auction 2.978. darn close to where it was trading when issued. a little trading in the middle. 2.42 bid to cover. $2.42, chasing every dollar's worth of securities available. above the 2.33 10-auction average. 63.9 on indirects. i went back to 2000 and i found two numbers higher, september of this year at 66, february of 2006 at 65.4. that's a whopper of a number. 10.4 on directs not too far below 10 auction average. dealers take about 25.7% of the auction. so b on the final leg of $58 billion and at the bottom of the hour we're going to be talking diamonds may be forever, but the finance minister of south africa isn't. we'll be looking at all that at the bottom of the hour. in andy, tyler, back to you. >> thank you very much. quite a tease there. this is the future, ladies and gentlemen, of america's military. jane wells live with incredib

rick santelli live on the floor of the cme group in chicago.he last fed meeting was the 27th and 28th. i like to look at the first dave a meeting and see how the markets have moved. to that end, a two year note, can you see it is preparing for quite some time for the first-rate hike. tens, a little different story. but we know that right around the mid 230s is the high water mark. we experience twod two of those. on the dollar index side, it's not on a ties. maybe it's a spread between drogy and he was dovish and questions about our own fed. look at how similar the dollar index and the s&p 500 charts look, especially given the position from their high structure to where they're currently trading. melissa, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you. the markets rally across the board. the dow up by 200 points. just off the session highs. where are the best places for your money now ahead of tomorrow's fed decision? michael scannedlin is portfolio manager of the john hancock balance fund. michael, great to have you with us. one of your biggest over

rick santelli, what does it look like? >> it doesn't look good, melissa. i initially gave it a d minus. i felt generous. it is a holiday week. i gave it a d. that reflects the very weak demand as for the following metrics. it was $35 billion five-year notes. the yielded option, 1.785. that is the highest yield in an option since september of '14. the metrics, just 1.875. the highest yield i saw going into the final few seconds of the one issued trade is 1.77. higher yield, lower price. never a good combination. $2.32 chasing every dollar's worth securities available. that is weaker since july of '09. 52.5 on indirects, below the 59.10 average. 11% was the direct bidders. that's the only glimmer versus the 7% ten auction average. so d. tomorrow we, of course, have the final $90 billion in supply in the form of $29 billion seven year notes and hopefully they go better than the twos and fives thus far. we've seen yeeields pop-up a little bit. >> thank you. so the s&p 500 on tap to end the year just slightly in the green. so are there better opportunities in e

let's get to rick santelli for the annual new year's celebration on the floor of the chicago merc. ck? >> happy new year, rick. >> it was up there but now, jimmy, it's all on the floor. hey, listen, happy new year to all the viewers, all the investors out there. remember one thing, we still have people in chicago! yeah! 2016 will welcome you. janet yellen, we'll be watching! happy new ar

rick santelli joins us now. that brings up so many questions about the market and conditions we are in right now. >> it does. actually the notion of -- many guests have said this -- the notion that they are taking their time almost scares me more because my guess is there is a lot of people and a lot of investors and a lot of institutions with similar portfolios with the same mantra, which means we are all kind of inching closer to the portal and there's only so many people that are going to fit through it. i guess the easy way to look at this is we're talking about normalization on wednesday, which means we're coming from something a bit abnormal and the abnormal part was push everybody into something risky that was part of the plan. well, what happens in a world by design that has a high degree of risk when you change the risk free interest rate? see, to me every sector is plugged into that grid. whether it's junk on nonenergy, junk on energy, it's affected by everything. but i still think there's a silver lin

here's rick santelli for wall street's prediction for 2016. >> forecasters are cautious about stockso 2016. strategists who have published a forecast for 2016 for the s&p 500 have an average estimate of 2200 for the index ending at the end of next year. that's 10% above current levels. perhaps more to the point, that's 4% higher than the index reads in may of this current year. wall street's reputation for always pumping up stocks and telling you that they're going to be going much higher is not being fulfilled right here. probably for the reasons, it seems late. the bull market is about to turn higher. for more than a year it's making it hard for strategists to feel as if investors should pay much more for companies that are not growing their earnings very much in aggregate. finally, of course, all the uncertainty about the federal reserve a superintendenting it's going to hike interest rates, exactly how the markets absorb that, nobody quite knows. sometimes it's a good sign when you have the official handicappers of the market who are not very enthusiastic about how stocks are goi

first, rick santelli. >> i think we're going to be looking at what's going on in the world as the fedady to normalize rates. we've called it from day one the great recalibration. and, in lieu of recalibration, i leave you with the big number of the day, 405 billion. what is it? come back after the break and i'll tell you. >>> coming up on the halftime show, why the biggest bull on wall street is convinced stocks will surprise a lot of people in 2016. tony dwyer is with us live. plus what other deals could be brewing in the beverage space with keurig's big buyout? and can crude turn it around next year? a top portfolio manager will give us his outlook as well. >> in the meantime, we're going to track this sell-off we got going on. ubs director of floor operation. i thought the talk this morning was you took out some november resistance, what's going on here? >> well, friday was not exactly what it looked like. it was one of the weirdist days i've seen in 50 years of trading. there were anomalies all over the place. things didn't really connect. for example, the jobs number looked like

rick santelli and the santelli exchange. >> hi, carl.isten, for quite a number of years i have not been a believer in the current medicine that's been dished out by central bankers to remedy what they see are the problems with regard to local and global economies, but i do see a silver lining, so let's start at the beginning, and the best way to start is one of my sources e-mailed me something today that i would like to read for you, the viewers and listeners, because i found it so fascinating and spot on. i still find it amazing that despite the extraordinary period of low growth and prices in japan that we all observe for years fast forward now the u.s., europe, and china and the parallel time frame of ultra rates that pretty much no one seems to want to consider that the latter is a causative finish nonnon. that's wordy, but what he is saying is accurate. we all notice japan's lost decade and lost decade and a half and lost two decades. now pretty much the whole globe is in somewhat the same boat. they're not getting enough pricing pr

steven sarge guilfoyle from deep value is with us at post 9 and rick santelli. i'm going to start with you because we got the final tally in on the bond market. this year in 2015 we saw a flattening of the yield curve, the two-year note up 38 basis points for the year, we've got a chart to reflect this, the ten-year was up 8 basis points for the year, the 30-year bond up 27 basis points for the year. what a year it's been for the bond market and what are you expecting next year? >> well, i will tell you what, especially when you look at fives and tens which were up about the same, pretty close to 10 basis points, what that tells me is that some people will -- or investors will look at the long end and say it's because there is no inflation, i look at it, we've talked about it before, if you want inflation you have to find growth in productivity, i don't think we're going to find it in 2016. i think the same dynamics could be in place with regard to the curve, i think the short end is going to pay attention to the fed, the fed is going to go, debatable how many t

. >> let's get to the bond pits and check in with rick santelli. >> good morning, carl. a lot of moving parts in the market with regard to central banks. whether it's japan, europe, or of course our central bank. there's a lot of divergence, a lot of comparisons, and investors have to not only look at what is currently going on with things like qe in japan, but have to factor in the trends and how those trends and future policy issues are affected by our fed. it's getting messy. if you look at a one and two-day of tens, there's one notion that jumps out simply. we're drifting lower in yield. much of that, according to traders i talked to, is due to the behavior of other markets like the stock market. if you look at a month to date chart, it's revealing. we're a bit higher, but you can see it's more the resistance the low to mid 230s, and just to put it in perspective as we hover at 220, we settled last week at 213. two day of bunds, similar move. the charts getting the most attention today are the doll dollar/yen. as you look at a 24-hour of dollar, you can see we got hi