speaking of debt, let's get to rick santelli at the cme group in chicago. rick? >> good morning, david. what do you think of when you think of data dependent? there should be only one answer, treasury yields. they have been consistently divining the strength of the data. today it was glaring. yields dropped dramatically and all the weak data that we've had. twos, you have go back to the 5th of november to find lower closing yields. five year, october 27th of last year to find lower closing yield. october 14th of last year on the tens. august 25th of last year on 30-year. i'd also like to point out that the curve, yesterday a brief steepening on bullard's comments, but that didn't last very long. currencies, when you say currencies today, there should be one word that comes into your mind. the carry. carry trade has some strange anom lis whether you'al anomalies. when things get dicey, the carry trade currency gets traded higher because of short covering. one-year chart of the dollar/yen. dollar at the disadvantage going back to january of last year. april 15th fo

rick santelli in chicago.we return with the market recovery today, have we seen the bottom and what will it take for any bounce to hold? this one is not. we're up about 107 points. back in a moment. was engineered... ...to help sense danger before you do. because when you live to innovate, you innovate to live. the all-new audi q7. a higher form of intelligence has arrived. >>> all the major indexes bouncing back after a rough start to 2016, but fading throughout the morning, so what's it going to take for a bounce to hold? charlie, director of research with pension partners joins us now post nine. good morning. thanks for being with us. >> good morning, guys. >> what are the signs that the worst might be behind us and next week what's going to matter more, oil or earnings? >> that's the question on everyone's mind. i think, first, let's just take a step back and say, you know, the famous quote from wall street, you know, greed for lack of a better word is good. it doesn't apply in markets. it doesn't apply in

here's rick santelli. >> thanks, simon. will run with your exact line, simon said a great day for employment figures. dow up 23. >> it's a bit of a disappointment you would have thought we would have been up more. futures up 200, but i think the bigger issue is what's happening with some of the other numbers. you're getting huge employment growth. but you are not getting wage growth. >> and you're not getting gdp growth and productivity. >> it sounds like it will squeeze margins. we will hire more people and just spend more, but we're not getting more gdp or productivity. >> i got in on a discussion with the group this morning. i've been down here since '79, the reason i paid attention to jobs as the most important number, it says growth and productivity and gdp are highly correlated with the jobs market. should we pay that much attention now? is it the quality of the jobs or the infrastructure of our economy that's less productive? how important is it now to concentrate on growth and productivity versus the raw numbers of

thanks so much, rick santelli.osoft earnings coming this week amid a nervous investor climate. what it may mean for both companies. >>> plus, the search for the 2016 cnbc disrupter 50 is on, once again looking for the next game-changing private companies. more information and a link to the official nomination submission form is at disrupter 50.cnbc.com. e td ameritrade trader group, they work all the time. sup jj, working hard? working 24/7 on mobile trader, rated #1 trading app on the app store. it lets you trade stocks, options, futures... even advanced orders. and it offers more charts than a lot of other competitors do on desktop. you work so late. i guess you don't see your family very much? i see them all the time. did you finish your derivatives pricing model, honey? td ameritrade. so what about this? your old technology... it's time to get into the new with ford ♪ come and get it if you really want it... ♪ new is ecoboost technology. new is a foot-activated liftgate. new is tougher, stronger and lighter. ne

let's start with rick santelli. the movement in the sho short end of the curve there, rick. >> let's start with the dollar index. it spiked beforehand, makes sense. it is down. we're talking small numbers. the two year, at 85, yeah, it is down, but i still think even if it goes down further, not giving me a lot of information. fives at 143. 140 is the key level. tens, still a 201, probably test 2%. we had two closes since october, yesterday one of them. no great shakes 30 year either. what is the big market, i can't show you. your dollar futures, the 90 day forward rate, not the currency, one of the most amazing contracts and whether you're looking at 2015 or as we say down here, the front, which is the 16s, the reds are the 17s, the greens are the 18s, the blues are the 19s, these are short rates that converge to libor. they were all down, all the bundles were down, i would say, 6, 7, 8 basis points. now as i look at that entire spread, they're down anywhere from down 1 to down 2. so they have cut their losses dram

rick santelli with the santelli exchange. hey, rick. >> hi, john.n, you know, the start of 2014, 2015 and 2016 purely from the eyes of the ten-year as a benchmark have many similarities. now, my charts aren't perfect, but you could tweak your own if you want to see. in the beginning of 2014 we started out at 303. it was the high yield. right at the 21st of january current date we're on, it was 283. we dropped 20 basis points. if we look at what happened last year in the beginning, pretty much the same pattern-wise. a little more juice. down 34, 217-183. basic, we basically came very close to settling on change. this year in 199 or minus 28. they rhyme, but it's important to understand why these dynamics are so similar. the u.s. economy barring -- take the stock market valuations out because part of those valuations, of course, were based on pumping them up from the central bank perspective. >> when i look at interest rates moving down and the chatter on the floor is, oh, my gosh, i can't believe rates are going down, i can't help but think there are

let's get to rick santelli at the cme in chicago. happy new year, rick. >> happy new year, carl.ood morning to all listeners and viewers. looking at lower yields, down about 5 basis points on a five-year. look at the six-month chart, important to pay attention to all the tops you see in the 170s and 180s area. that's the options pit and treasuries. having an interesting high volume first hour of trade. looking at a three-month chart of ten years, you can see the low to mid 230s was a breaker bar for the market towards the end of last year. no different this year. actually now under the pivot, so say traders, right at 2.25. it's all about china this morning and deservedly so. the globe, so much economic horsepower, each contributes, each developed, and the emerging market and frontier economy all tossed in. every country tossing less in reflects the picture. that, in many ways, is what is going on with china and the markets. look at their currency, dollar/yuan intraday. the last time the dollar was at these strong levels was in april of 2011. it has been a big move many sessions i

back to you. >> thanks for that, rick santelli. send it over to john fort live from ces with a look at what's coming up from there. john. >> hey, sarah. i ran across the convention floor. now we're at -- to talk, of course, the geopolitical environment, and also, hey, tvs, some audio equipment, and some new cameras. all that and more coming up as we sit down with kazou hirai. it'll get better. i'm at the edward jones office, like sue suggested. thanks for doing this, dad. so i thought it might be time to talk about a financial strategy. (laughing) you mean pay him back? knowing your future is about more than just you. so let's start talking about your long-term goals... multiplied by 13,000 financial advisors. it's a big deal. and it's how edward jones makes sense of investing. >> market fighting the inevitability of oil down $34. a lot of the oil stocks are down 8%, 9%. don't forget the back drop. that exclusive interview on cnbc. he said the fed's expectation of the rate rises for this year was about, what -- that was about what

. >> let's check in on rick santelli. good morning, rick. >> good morning.es are up last year at 227 and 10s. look at yesterday's chart. look at the spike. yesterday was 208. of course, we need to may attention to that as is slowed down rate trade continues in 2016. if you look here today chart, can you see what i mean. let's switch gears. you can see on a year-to-date charts, they're turning up a bit. not a big deal. they are holding 50 basis points. >> that is the line traders are paying closest attention to on a closing yield basis. if we look at what's going on on the yield curve and continue to remember that a flattening yield curve seems to be associated, of course, with the snuging fed and flattening could remain, even on rates moved lower. which is the case of late, 10s minus 2s aroundt the flattest since july, 2012. they're certainly, very, very close. dollar index 84 to date, the highest close in the dollar index is 9940, 100. >> that it was 5th of january. 100 is what investors are paying attention to. the dollars you see going back to the spring

rick santelli has "the santelli exchange" day 1. >> day 1, you're right, sara.journal, the chance of a global meltdown written by jerry odriscoll, who happens to be meyer guest today. welcome, jerry. >> glad to be on. thank you. >> great why, you say it may be viewed as monetary, rhymes with 1937 in my mind, but on the other hand you say low rates helped create the bubbles that are bursting now that we need lower rates to create more bubbles to fix the old. can you square those two dynamics, jerry? >> well, the fed is between a rock and a hard place. they put themselves there. on the one hand they're going forced to do the right raise, but if they back off, the markets are just going to -- these bubbles are just going to inflate inmore. >> jerry, you worked for the dallas fed, a great fed, richard fisher with our channel as a contributor. i guess my question is this. do you think if we're going to have a recession, we're long in the tooth off business cycle, do you think it would have happen where december 16th quarter point or two or three more half or would it

i'm concerned that, you know, you can -- rick santelli went at it to some degree yesterday.art of china's problem is the central bank of the united states. their currency was partially pegged to the dollar. now we take action that lifts the dollar, which then forces their currency higher, which puts them in a negative position. so that's why they want to move it down. that's causing pressure on everything else in asia. >> when fischer says four here, they score them over there. >> absolutely. absolutely. and you know my bet, i think it will be zero before it's 1%. he can keep trying for his four. i don't know we'll get there. >> you don't think march is on the table? >> march may be on the table but it could have serious consequences. i think if they move in march, what we have seen over the past week could repeat itself in spade spades. >> art cashin, mike santolli, thank you very much. >> when we come back, calls for weakness in iphone sales. a top analyst predicting an unprecedented decline in q1. >> and the white house metering with top executives from apple, twitter and

let's get over to rick santelli and the santelli exchange. >> thank you.hanghai composite over 6% today when it settled on that important closing low it pretty much has gone down a bit. we talked many times that that's a good way to watch the market globally. the insurance isn't going to last forever and i understand that the global contribution of an economy that's much bigger than it used to be at a lower percentage. everybody understands that. but it isn't necessarily the numbers. at 8:30 eastern when i do numbers one of the most important issues you have to hit on is what's built into the market. expectations. so really many emerging markets have a growth rate that's much faster than developed markets because they're transitioning in developed markets but the growth rate and the strategic investments that go along with it are creating the profile of the global economy. take something away the profile is different. it doesn't mean that a smaller per cent of a larger economy isn't contributing more. it just isn't contributing what was built in. today i s

kayla, back to you. >> rick santelli. thanks. wealth of mark zuckerberg and jeff bezos heading in different directions this week. how much they're worth now compared to other tech billionaires in just a moment. it's hard to find time to keep up on my shows. that's why i switched from u-verse to xfinity. now i can download my dvr recordings and take them anywhere. ready or not, here i come! (whispers) now hide-and-seek time can also be catch-up-on-my-shows time. here i come! can't find you anywhere! don't settle for u-verse. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. so what about this? your old technology... it's time to get into the new with ford ♪ come and get it if you really want it... ♪ new is ecoboost technology. new is a foot-activated liftgate. new is tougher, stronger and lighter. new is ford. america's best-selling brand. now get into a new focus, fusion, or escape with 0% financing for 60 months plus $2,000 dollars trade-assist cash. only at your local ford dealer. >>> the wealth of mark zuckerberg and jeff

let's get to rick santelli. on leading indicators and then we'll get to existing homes, rick. >> i'll tell you. we're sweeping up the 2015 day. selling numbers down 0.2, which is exactly as we expected. it's a tie. month over month-percentage change. the first was in february. you have to go all the way back to march 2013 to find a minus 0.3. it was a three-way tie. not a great finish for lei. now, of course, we want to look at the existing home sales. for that, diana olick, d.c. how does it look, diana? >> reporter: rick, existing home sales jumped 14.4% month to month to an existing annual rate. that's the largest monthly sales jump in history, but, wait, there's a reason. you remember that huge nearly 11% drop in november. this is all because of new mortgage rules that went into effect in november and delayed a lot of closings and pushed them to december. so it's really a wash. the realtors are saying that today's data was just confirming the november drop was due to delays in those new mortgage regulations.

join starting at $9.99 a month. >> rick santelli here live. i can't tell you how many different articles, interviews have come to the point that finally who is to blame for all of this volatility? the fed for raising rates. unelected officials ruining the party, taking away the punch bowl. there's something to be said for that logic, but in a slightly different way. the fomc committee and the notion a small group of people should control the price of money in this country or in any small group around the world, i think that ought to be under review. the issue isn't what's going on. reality is hitting. we can't point to the fed as responsible directly for this. the party had to end. zero interest rate policy was a price -- they kept it there long after the crisis. that's the issue. i declare that the age of transparency should be dead. it didn't turn out that we had blasted to see what was going on. what we actually had was a television. every time things weren't the picture they wanted us to see, they changed the channel. whether it was employ

. >>> let's get to rick santelli in chicago at the cme on this fed day. ng, rick. >> good morning, carl. yes, it is a fed day. i don't know, my opinion is some of the markets, many of the big fund managers seem to be acting like spoiled children with regard to the fed. listen, this loop of fed policy has to end some time. whether it's timing is appropriate or not is the issue. probably the fed advertising data dependant wasn't such a good idea. look at dynamics that were out from mid summer to the end of the year on just about every metric, especially manufacturing. the issue of china, the ships don't turn around in a day, a month, a quarter or a year. to think that the september tightening was avoided by china, only to see how the issues of china not only lingered, but to move from an emerging market to a developed economy is a process. but one thing in that process we see on all the countries economies who have made that transition that, your brogrowth starts to come down even though the girth of the economy has grown. it's a changeoff. look at a one and

rick santelli, thank you very much. let's go out to the bay area, where ceo jamie diamond of chase is introducing that the chase center will be the new name of a new arena to house the golden state warriors, the hottest team in basketball with the hottest player in basketball. steph curry. best shooter i ever saw from the point guard position. so they're going to have the naming rights of a new center that will open in a couple of years out in the bay area, 2019, 2020 nba season and right now nobody has the warriors' number but chase has the numbers, the right price. >> and -- >> all righty, fed policymakers on pause for now, leaving rates unchanged. but given the recent market volatile, the big question is what will they do next? martin feldstein, economics professor at harvard, and former chairman of the council of economic advisers under president reagan. also joined by steve liesman, brian sullivan to take part in our conversation. welcome as always. great to have you on cnbc. >> good to be with you. >> were you hea

thank you very much for that, rick santelli. okay. let's take a look at treasuries, how are they yielding on the back of that soft 30-year auction. the 2-year is still below 1% at 0.915. the 10-year at 2.112% and the 30-year at 2.901%. ty, over to you. >> we go to phil lebeau for a news alert. >> tyler, we've got an outage at jetblue at least with its website. we want to show you if you went on the jetblue website within the last half hour, this is what you would see. nothing at all. they have told us in a statement that they're experiencing network issues due to a data center power outage. we're working to resolve the issue and it should be restored shortly. it's not impacting flights as of yet. i just talked with somebody at jetblue who said all flights are staying on schedule as they are and we expect to resolve this as quickly as possible. so for now it has not impacted flights, though you see this picture here from new york of somebody tweeting out there are long lines starting to form. so we'll see what happens over the next hou

for that we go to rick santelli in chicago. good morning, rick. >> good morning.reasury department for the most part was a bit surprising during the period of equity weakness because of the compensation on the lower yields. it just seemed to with a little bit light. it wasn't that the buyers were gone and turned sellers. it was just saturation to push yields down into this compressed state they've been in for a while. it's been very difficult. the reverse is true. it's not coming back. but significant areas to pay atej to. let's pick september 1st for maturity. let's look at the 2s. you notice that spike in mid-september. that was an 81 yield. we're still, of course, above that. keep that in mind. let's go to the curve of 5 years that. was 161 and spikes were at 146. look at the ten-year. spikes around 230. we're obviously hovering at 202. look at the end of september, october november congestion around 2%. you can really see what's going on the further down the curve you go. it was around 308, the spike for the 30-year bond which is currently at 729. where is the

let's get to the bond pits and check in with rick santelli. ng, rick. >> dude morning, carl. two days tells you a lot. yesterday was the first day, not on an intraday basis but a closing day basis, a real closing day basis, not when the stock market closes at 4:00 p.m. but when the stock market closes. it closed under 2%. it hasn't happened since october. we closed around 2.27. i am unable to show the chart. if you showed a year to date for the same time period from the end of 14 to january of 15, the same day of the 21st. the patterns are almost identical. the only difference, about ten basis points. we settled 2014 at 217. if we look at bund yields, very fascinating. some out there believe that mario draghi and the ecb can take all the financial culture of all those different countries and come up with a bernanke-like put. if you look at bund deals, they are 2 basis points away from low levels. if we look at foreign exchange, two-day of the pound dollar, it continues. the pound continues to move lower. if you open the chart since the last tim

let's hop over to the bond pits and rick santelli. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl. treasuries yesterday may have given the world a clue. they certainly didn't seem to find enough buying to push yields down. look at a one and two-day of tens, keep in mind that this is the 17th session, almost 3 1/2 weeks when we closed in a range of 219 to 230. look at november's start, you can pick it out. look at two etfs, hyg going back to '09, it did have activity yesterday. didn't revisit the lows. lqd, closer to the lows going back to '13. you want to watch these markets during equity volatility to assess what the damage may be down the road for credit markets in 2016 two-day of the dollar/yuan, yes, the yuan is higher. the dollar is a bit lower. still in the neighborhood of april 2011 since we were at these relative levels on those two currencies. last chart, dollar index getting ready to test 100, a big technical area. carl, back to you. >>> when we come back, ford's mark fields vegas. dow is up 27. >>> ford posting the best monthly sales data since '05, marking the strongest

rick santelli with the santelli exchange. >> would i like to welcome our guest, rebecca. e. >> thank you, rick. thanks for having me. >> your reresponsibsponse to the surveys. six topics covered. let's take topic number one houchlt is the mood regarding recession? >> it is pretty consistent with what we surveyed in june. so 70% of investors that we surveyed are expecting a recession within the next three years. no one thinks we are going into a recession in 2016. >> they are month he recession aware but not necessarily in the here and now. has that caused any different behavior regarding how they assess companies? >> absolutely. 88% of investors tell us they are placing more emphasis on balance sheet strength. >> what exactly are they going to be looking for? >> leverage levels and liquidity. >> leverage levels, that makes sense. >> we are telling our clients to really focus on talking, communicating about their balance sheets and what they have been doing over the past several decade to get them into position to weather the next down turn. a common refrain. there is an ea

but first, rick santelli, what's on your mind today? >> 36 years. going to have bob with the 36 years dallas fed president for 14 years. our topic is going to be transparency. but, you know, looking out a window is fine. it's good and transparent. unless you live in a row house and looking at a brick wall. we'll talk about transparency after the break. >> breaking news from the cdc. >> news conference going on now jointly from cdc and the nih prosiding numbers on the number of zika cases in the united states. the u.s. had 31 cases of zika infection among people that travel to effected areas. those people caught the virus elsewhere and travelled back to the united states. this virus spreads through mosquito bites. it's not expected they will be able to spread person to person. we haven't had local transition except for the territory of puerto rico. they're monitoring very closely. the who had a news conference this morning and said they'll have a meeting of the emergency committee on monday. they're trying to plum the relationship between the zika vi

let's get to rick santelli from cme in chicago. >> good morning, david.y much now realizes, yes, we had a bit of a drop in claims from july levels, but durables, preliminary december was not good, finishing off the year on such a weak note does demonstrate that much of the slowdown was really apparent around thanksgiving. maybe the surprise is that it continued. look at a two-day of twos. yes, there is a lot of volatility. if you look at the close on monday, it was $ 0.85%. two day of tens, the right side is different. notice scaling. what are the settlements in 10s? 2% monday, 2% yesterday. where are we know? 2.01%. you get what i'm saying. 30-year, obviously down the curve. different flavor to it because of the fed looking at two day of 30s. when it comes to interest rates, maybe the only one you should be looking at today are bund deals. look at a two-day. unbelievable. the low yield today was back in the 0.30s. extra day we traded as low as four basis points. europe, italian banks, you could extend and pretend. it shouldn't be shocking holding all tho

rick santelli live on the floor of the cme. post two year note auction. let's look at the intraday two year. it came down a bit in yields, little bit of buying. down the curve, it wasn't immediate but we are down. testing the magical 2% level. look at the two day. 4:00 in the morning last night, we hit 113 basis points. open the chart up, ufd new year's eve's half day in 2007. we are comping in terms of how flat that trade is getting. which is very interesting on the first day of a two-day fed meeting. chicago's my kind of town. but today it's tyler's kind of town. we're going to go to the fund manager of the year, tyler at morning star. >> rick, i wish you were here. i'm in rick's town. and also in the town of our next guest a dear friend and a great member of the cnbc family, marcus lamonis. finding america's next great entrepreneurs is something marcus knows a lot about. he is launching a knew deal with universal orlando resorts to develop a series of workshops for entrepreneurship at orlando. the launch of that is getting started today at ferndale hig

rick santelli is tracking the action at cme. >> let's look at the five year, shall we?n 6 on the day, down 14 on the week. let's look at a one year chart of fives. we're at 134 basis points. we all know the japanese moved in the negative territory. and in terms of, hey, if you're park the money with bank of japan, you'll have a penalty rate, similar to the situation in europe. let's look at a european five-year, 20-year chart. minus 31 basis points, third curve negative out to seven year. technically that's german securities. let's get more specific into the notion of europe and the european union. let's look at a french five year. at minus 14 basis points, there is your 20 year chart, it is negative on its curve out to the six year. what about japan? the epicenter of the news today. their curve minus out to the eight year. 20-year chart of the five-year, minus six basis points. how is all that playing in foreign exchange? because that's the transmission you want to pay attention to, look at one-year chart of the dollar index. see how it is knock, knock, knocking on the

. >> rick santelli and the santelli exchange. i haven't missed being on a trading floor.lot of renditions and a lot of facilities that were trading floors that no longer are trading floors since 1979. something very special about a fed day. this one in particular i was glad we had mark on today. and i think in my opinion after many discussions and interviews with people like mark formerly with the fed. it's painted into a corner. so now if we put our strategic on and how can they do the best job considering the hand that they have that they're holding and the difference is as mark pointed out as well is trying to find some wiggle room t. committee is maintaining it's policy of reinvesting principle payments from its agency mortgage backed securities and mortgage backed in the market until normalization of the level of fed funds is well underway. this policy by keeping the committee holdings of longer term securities at sizable levels should help maintain financial conditions. of course what they're talking about is reinvesting or going back to auction to continually hold

from wells fargo funds management, right next to him keith bliss from can a tone and company and rick santelli checks in from chicago as well. keith bliss, more than a few traders today have said they felt like this selloff was overdone, i think the guy sitting next to you feels that way as well. what about you? >> i'm in complete agreement with that. there's a few things that are troubling in the market as bob was pointing out, i was not very thrilled like most people with the way we if inn initialed up 2015, it's not necessarily a dictum of things to come, but it's certainly instructive for us analyzing the market over the next few weeks. certainly the selling pressure that swept across the globe led to massive oversold conditions in the dow, the s&p and nasdaq. the russell has not gotten there yet to our oversold level, but the s&p 500 did at the 1991 level, it's probably going to trade around here a little bit but there's encouraging signs that i think short term we will see a pop here. the brett inside of the market was seven to one down, that stabilized to thee to one down, it's come bac

it's the thing we discussed yesterday with rick santelli, a lot of the selling pressure looks like it's coming from abroad. >> disappointing for wall street, no santa claus rally for a second year in a row. >> i was hoping for a 40 point rally in the s&p in the last hour, i've held off noting t today is the last day for the santa claus rally. traditionally there is a rally. >> it runs until the epiphany, is that right? >> last five days of the trading year -- last year in the first two of this year, normally good for a 1.4% gain over the last 50 years. this year ain't making it, down 2.3%, the santa claus rally. by the way, last year was down 3% as well. it's been a long time since we have had two years back to back where the so-called santa claus rally is not working. now we get to the january effect, other silly wall street -- >> we are off to a roaring start there as well. >> that's not working, either. basically things are not exactly going in the traditional way so far in 2016. >> as we reprice risk getting ready for whatever the federal reserve will do this year. you think about i

rick santelli and the santelli exchange. >> i would like to welcome my guest doug lazere. thanks for taking the time this morning, ed. >> always a pleasure to be with you, rick. >> all right. i want you to translate for me. be my translator. how in the world country world economy be better, okay, when we have huge amounts of nonperforming loans in china and in europe. we have italian banks falling by the way side. we have quantity takive easing where printed paper money is buying financial assets that can't support themselves on their own fundamentals. why is going back to a world where leverage becomes the only way we can transmit growth and end up with equity index that is are positive territory? where is it logical to go back to that world? i constantly hear all the ostriches on their sand pillows with their head in the sand saying it's the fed's fault for normalizing after, what, we haven't had any type of rate increase in a long time. is that the trigger? is this the world we live in where slerchlg now the only growth that's sustainable? >> well,, first of all, wronk t

an "a" for that auction grade from professor rick santelli. let's bring up the board and show you what treasuries are doing. 2-year below 1%. the 10-year note yield, yesterday it was higher than where it is right now. 2.11%. now at 2.091%. and the 30-year at 2.876%. as for what's happening in the stock market, a triple digit drop in the dow. we are rallying for the first 40 minutes of trade as crude was also rallying. crude took a dip on inventories. stocks have gone lower as well. what's going on, bob? a volatile session. >> look at the s&p 500 for the last few days. we can't hold a rally. we opened up every day and sell right into it in the middle of the day. admittedly, we get a little bit of a turnaround late in the day but the midday selloffs are souring a lot of people on any potential bounce right now. the last few days take a look at the sectors moving. consumer discretionary. energy is down a little bit. oil is flat after some disappointing inventory numbers. just want to show you high/low volatility numbers here. it's they're selling

back to you. >> all right, rick santelli. thank you very much. on deck, you can call this an ice cube market because today is a good day. you got no smog, but that doesn't mean tomorrow or next week will be as good. we're going to take a look ahead at what might be ahead. plus, midcap maf v cacap marvel. we'll speak with a four-star fund manager who is making money for his clients. he has three midcap stock picks just for you. stick around. it's hard to find time to keep up on my shows. that's why i switched from u-verse to xfinity. now i can download my dvr recordings and take them anywhere. ready or not, here i come! (whispers) now hide-and-seek time can also be catch-up-on-my-shows time. here i come! can't find you anywhere! don't settle for u-verse. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. >>> all right. hello and welcome back to "power lunch." we're talking off camera here a little bit. tyler mathson here along with my friends brian and michelle. the markets right now continuing the rally we saw late in the day yesterday. the d

. >> let's get over to the cme group in the meantime, rick santelli, get the santelli exchange. >> good morning, carl. i think 2016 is going to be a very difficult year to handicap. we all know that there's still lotsliquidity sloshing around but there's fewer choices as to how to put the money to work. december 16, the fed changed strategy. now, i know that was many weeks ago. but i don't know that the market really has had a chance to digest exactly what that means. it was a year-ending event. it certainly seems as though once the fed raised rates, even though it was a range of 25 to 50, not a big change, at that point, we all continue to focus on the dollar versus the yuan. let's put up that chart. there was a pause in the drop of the value versus that basket, specifically the dollar. but we see it's accelerated again as you see by the strength of the dollar on that chart. let's look at another part of asia we haven't talked about lately. that's japan. we all talk about the nikkei and the fact it performed pretty well last year. it didn't perform very well, benchmarked against the 80

the jobs panel has final predictions, larry kudlow, and peter, and steve, and rick santelli here as wellquickly, what are you looking for? >> 218,000 would be my call on the unemployment rate. who knows. i'd rather guess the participation rate, i think that remains the key, and it really camouflages the true nature of unemployment. >> okay. steve, you? >> 175 with 165 from private, and randomly added 10. >> unemployment? >> no goes. >> larry, how about you? >> i'm going with a buck ninety. there's an error margin of 100,000 on either side, but i go with a buck ninety. >> stab at the unemployment rate? >> i've been trying to stab the unemployment rate for 30 years, it's a worthless piece of junk. no, i'm like steve. >> not an official estimate, but i was going to say 190, and for the full year, average 200,000. >> again, wage growth is one of the things we're watching too. a number for that quickly? >> well, just the consensus on year over year basis, expected to be 2.8%, so on that, it's the best in a while. >> a few seconds from the jobs report. we'll watch what happens. the market's go

rick santelli, clearly today the markets showing that they still love when central bankers talk dove i wishly, don't they? >> i'm not so sure. as i look we are up now less than 100 -- >> well, yeah -- >> down here -- >> as you often say my friend it's all about how we close not how we trade during the day. >> there you go. >> i pay attention. >> my informal poll just talking to traders walking around the floor around lunchtime was they'll rally. i know many of our guests are saying buy the dip, short covering, a lot of things i don't he is in i will disagree with, but i haven't heard so many people say sell rallies in equities in a long time. in terms of mario draghi, there's tomato, there's tomato. i hear sovereign welfare. i really think the qe program in our country proved to be less than successful. i think it will be less to the second power successful in europe. as for china, you know, i think sometimes we confuse catalysts for reasons. you know, china, the fed tightening, these are all catalysts but they aren't necessarily the reasons markets are going down. i think the reason

our "closing bell" exchange for this thursday, joining us chris retzler, jonathan corpina and rick santelli checks in from chicago. john, we got a bounce today, do you believe it? >> i don't think we will have a parade down the canyon of heroes just yet. there are a lot of different factors out there. the beginning of earnings season clearly helps here, economic data, we have pretty good economic data on the calendar that's coming out tomorrow, maybe that can help support this rally. hobby i would have liked to have seen a smaller bounce in this market. i don't think these large moves that we continue to have is very healthy for our markets, but intel after the bell, we know how strong financials during earnings season can help this market, we get that tomorrow morning, let's see if we can continue this rally tomorrow. the other factor that scares me is we're heading into a three-day weekend. usually when we get close to a three-day weekend we start to see a little bit of a risk off trade, especially with all the global economic factors going on right now. even if this rally does continue t

rick santelli is at the cme. aside from the numbers, tame us inside the numbers. are you hearing things about margin calls? we mentioned at the top jeff gundlach saying margin calls might be happening. chaes the mood, what's the feeling, what are people doing? >> i think all of the wild moves we really have had since october are all margin calls, and i think it's all an oversimplification but sometimes that's needed to kind of get your arms wrapped around the macro. i think the one thing i'm hearing here that i don't hear on tv or i don't read enough in the newspapers is that there is a margin call liquidation. in other words, if you're fully leveraged, and the world really has been fully leveraged for a long time, when prices fall, the amount you can hold gets smaller. so you need to sell something. the part i don't hear on the floor is, okay, they're selling stocks but they're buying bonds. i don't hear the buying part. when you talk to a trader that has a margin call, you don't hear about, gee, i wonder what i'm going to buy next. that's not the conversation. t

rick santelli, i imagine, is also digesting some fed speak. >> absolutely.reaking down is perfect way to describe what's coming up in fed speak. >> they knew the wizard was a fake. they saw behind the curtain, but yet, i think the irony is that they were still satisfied with a clock that really wasn't a, a diploma that isn't really a brain, and a medal of honor and valor that wasn't really courage. they were happy with that. nonetheless -- that really is the perfect analogy for what everybody has been going through. ponder this. i think art cashin is a wise man. he has seen it all firsthand. there's nothing better than firsthand. i like to read history, and i think history maybe rhymes with what happened, but it isn't like firsthand experience. when talking to simon this morning, he thinks that we're going to see qe, and we're going to see negative rates, and we're going to see no more tightening. the neat part of that was is that like the characters in "wizard of oz" everybody knows qe doesn't really do what it's advertised to do. when simon brought that up

rick santelli is tracking that action at the cme. interesting times we live in, ricky. >> absolutely. you know, ponder this, here we sit at 202 right now. last week we were at 212. if i were to tell you we'd drop ten basis points in a 10-year, would you have guessed the kind of week it was for equities? i don't think so. the equity markets have had many things work in their favor to give them this helium lift. meanwhile, rates for the most part have been low for a very long time reflecting not only domestic weakness but global weakness, think china. treasuries are kind of priced right. it's the equities that seem to be catching up. look at an intraday of 10s. yes, we briefly got down to 198. if you look at a 2-day, one of the reasons we got down to 298 was, well, let's see, at 8:30 eastern you had weak retail sales, you had weak industrial production, weak capacity utilization, weak empire. it follows a lot ever weak data. when was the last time we settled under 2%, and we haven't yet, by the way, that was the 14th of october as you

and we welcome back rick santel santelli, who joins us from chicago. i was telling you about this extreme call earlier. we have seen a number of support levels come and go in this market so far in 2016. what do you make of that and what are you doing right now? >> you know, albert edwards made an extremely call. and his targets are extreme. but he's right about one thing. when the rail stopped running, when the ships start sailing, when manufacturing and energy collapse together, when small caps underperform in a strong dollar environment, there's a good chance you're going into recession. so he's not crazy. and arthur cashin, when he says zero before positive one. how about negative one before positive one. we're in a tough environment here. >> you talking about rates there? >> yes, i am. talking about the fed funds rate. we're in a pretty tough environment here, and the only safe place seems to be place where is you can get a dividend, at least as far as stocks are concerned. there's nothing to like about this. i thought i smelled fear today. i didn'

rick santelli checking in from chicago. rick, there were plenty of reasons for the market to want to move on geopolitical concerns in 2015 and they didn't. they seem to be doing it now. gold tire, a rush to the bond market, a rush out of the equity market. why do you think it's that way this time around? >> well, think about two boxers. if one boxer takes a lot of jabs, he gets weakened a bit. and maybe a big blow will put him on the ground on a knockout. maybe that first punch wouldn't have made that difference if he didn't have all the jabs. i think there's so many negatives from a fundamental economic standpoint at a very key junction where fed normalization is critical. and i think it's just all built up. i think investors don't have good fundamental reasons. you see so many smart people come on our channel and say the reason we're doing better than everybody else is because unlike canada, we have a diversified economy. in the same breath, don't worry about manufacturing. don't worry about a slight slowdown in a certain

gerard fitzpatrick is with us today, steve grasso from stuart frankel is at post 9 with us, and rick santelli checks in from chicago. steve we're about the lows of the day here, the s&p is at 1881 right now, how do you read the market's response? >> i think the market got way ahead of itself, bill. more often than not it does the same type of thing on every fed day. when you look at oil, oil ran up pretty good on a spike intraday, and then sold off right on the fed. if you look at that as being your indication or canary in the coal mine, it's just got recovering the energy space. that space has been so beaten up. they're worried about the dollar reaction. i don't think the fed should have ever changed, i don't think the fed is going to raise again. the checklist, if you would have done that checklist and put it on my paper, the last time they raised or the most recent time they raised, they shouldn't have raised then, either. there's no clarity. this is the most unclear the fed has ever been. >> gerard, where does this leave markets? >> well, it makes it interesting. i think there was enough

. >> let's check bonds with rick santelli at the cme. rick?day of 10s tell you all we need to know. we're breaking out of a tight range that's been down three weeks. open the chart up to december 10th, the 11th was the last time we closed at these yields should we stay here. it's all about currencies. 2 day dollar/yen. 2 day of the dollar versus yuan kants to fly in the dollar's favor. 2 day of the dollar/euro. 2 day of the pound versus the dollar. the pound is down and at the lowest level since the summer of 2010. mandy, back to you. >> let's now get to christian mamami and bernie williams. gentlemen, thank you very much for joining us. christopher, for the third year in a row stocks are starting out an a weaker note for the full year. what do you make of this? >> so i think this year what is different is the fact that the fed is in a tightening mode and, therefore, while for the full year we'll probably do well, along the way there will be tremendous amount of volt aatil. >> but krishna are you taking a defensive or offensive position at thi

. >> let's get to rick santelli in chicago. hi, rick. >> hi, simon.ould like to welcome my guest, brian wesbury. you are the perfect person to have on today. we have known each other a long time. you always have a good sense of the marketplace. i think we are at a time where transparency is confused with the truth. medicine is good and proper for the disease that it is applied to and people that go to ivy league schools can control outcomes without unintended consequences. why do we live in this fantasy land? >> back in 2008, because we believed. >> not all of us. >> we believed it was all capitalism that failed and government saved us. once we did t.a.r.p. and bought into that belief that government can save the economy, since then, everyone. >> you mean the prequel to the big short. >> fannie mae and freddie mac can get everybody a ophome. >> that's why we haven't learned our lesson. >> what came out of that was, even republicans believe that the governments should be saving the economy. >> after the lights go out between the center and right. >> we

and peter kosik and rick santelli, a little bit of oracle of the market thing going on with you. we got down to bargain lows and back up to 1928. what do you do here? >> obviously you know i dip my beak a little bit when we got trarked two weeks ago and i think we'll have another opportunity. i'm not buying kool-aid that everybody else is buying about the bank of japan going to a negative interest rate. if the fed decides to cut rates back to zero again and then starts thinking about going to a negative interest rate, i don't think that's a positive. there are some people that have said that's -- the potential of that happening at some point if there's not an expansion in the economy that they want or whatever, that they might even go to that level. i'm not buying that. it's time to get off -- it's let the economy go where it's going to go sean let's look at earnings, what we should be doing now, talking about earnings and go from there. we have to deal with oil obviously but it's about earnings and what these companies are looking ford, second and third quarter. >> what are you

. >> jim lowell and rick santelli. steven, let's start with you, what are levels you're watching on this rally day? >> every time the market bottomed out, since 10:30 when we had the low it has bottomed lower than the time before that. we want to keep this above 1888. our level of resistance is hour high of the day, 19:02. you give any 1902 i could probably give you 1907. if not we're talking something a little lower. >> we had ten days in a row where u.s. stock markets and oil moved in the same direction. we broke that yesterday and today we're back to very much strong coupleing is oil price driving the market today? >> it may be. but correlation is not necessarily the same as causation, what we're seeing is a spillover of fear that oil is signaling a slowdown in the global economy whereas we really view it as signaling an absolute glut of supply. we know oil demand rose last year by between half of one percent so we don't see a slack in the demand story coming out of the oil patch just yet. what we see a classic tale

that rick santelli. a strong dollar as you can see there on the board. let's see what impact that is having on gold prices. actually, not very much. gold is slightly to the upside at 1,077. take a look at the other metals. precious and not. pa laid yum is down by 1.3%. silver, cop eastern platinum are moving higher. >> stocks building on yesterday's huge selloff. where are the opportunities right now? three big name -- big cap names you may want to buy on the recent big dips. plus, manhattan real estate prices soaring to record highs. how much an apartment in the big apple will set you back. ♪ every insurance policy has a number. but not every insurance company understands the life behind it. for those who've served and the families who've supported them, we offer our best service in return. ♪ usaa. we know what it means to serve. get an insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life. ♪ >>> hello, everyone. here is your cnbc news update for this hour. gop presidential candidate jeb bush campaigning in new hampshire criticizing presi

let's go to rick santelli at the cme group in chicago. >> thanks, david.f tens tells us a lot. tells us that we spent some time intraday under 2%. today. and on friday, having settled to december 1st you can see how much we deteriorated but have not settled under 2% since the middle of october. you see that chart starting in october. that was one session. if you wanted to stick with the appropriate nation of a violation of 2% you are going back to tax time of last year. there's fantasy football. there seems to be a form of fantasy trading going on. many think that the european central bank, the bank of canada, our federal reserve can fix this. they primed the pump for years. is the water running without such a big prime? no. so treasury rates may be defrosting a bit, but it's because equity markets are melting into true fundamentals. let's look at bund yields. looking at a chart beginning december 1st, flirting with 50 basis points. you note tens are flirting with two. what do you think of the french economy? if you want to think about the french economy i

rick santelli at the cme. yields up a little bit today, rick. >> yes, they are.le bit today, but really if you really look at a macro, yields haven't moved in a huge fashion over the last couple months. but if you look at intraday of 10s, tyler nailed it, we're up. but the important thing is a 205 field, we're up on the day. we're up on the week. we settled at 204 last week. october 1st of the chart clearly shows you 2% is important. look at a two-day hyg. july of '09, wednesday was the all low going back to that period but it has stabilized. dollar index you ask? once again watch 100. a lot of derivative-type trades that will get triggered should we close above that. michelle, back to you. >> all right, thanks so much, rickster. >> sue herera reporting a few minutes ago the oabama administration will try to clamp down on oil companies that burn off natural gas on public lands. morgan brennan has more on what could be a major change in policy and have a big impact on energy companies. morgan? >> it certainly could, tyler. and it comes at a time when we've got nat

on the floor of the new york stock exchange and john brady from rjl brian is playing the job of rick santelli from chicago. peter costa, you would think that we are due for some kind of a bounce in the equity market, we got one the first thing this morning but it collapsed again. what's going on? >> if you look at it i think people are just fed up with, you know, the story from china, i think that there's a certain amount of institutional bailout going on, lightning up in positions, we're seeing really a trimming of overall across the board investments right now and, you know, that's not unusual, market has had a great run, there is a lot of profits to be ache taken off the table and i think that people are waiting for that capitulation so i think guys are trying to position themselves because they're expecting some sort of major move on the down side, one big blow out. i do think, you know, i probably agree with him as well so a lot of people are lightning up on positions. >> it's a move where it's not just the merge names getting hit today. some of the worst performers are caterpillar, free