now rick santelli with the santelli exchange. rick. >> thanks, john.w, it wasn't that many years ago that the name charles prince, chairman, ceo of citi, said a famous line. he says, as long as the music is playing, you have to get up and dance. you know, it's all about central bankers and i'm pretty sure there was a huge amount of benevolence associated with central bankers, whether it's the fomc or what's going on with the ecb in europe or, of course, the bank of japan ministry, finance. but there comes a point where trying to make liquidity in the system jumpstart economies actually turns into something much darker, in my opinion. and that's when the central banking activity actually becomes the impediment, okay? extend and pretend, make insolvent institutions, give them the ability to live, call it the walking dead, if you will. i don't think that's a good thing. and i think that central banks may have crossed the line. now who is going to take the reins from central banks? central bankers, like many large bureaucracies, at some point, the very exi

rick santelli and the santelli exchange. >> thanks, kayla.verybody watching the substantial stabilization, at least of late and the upward price of the crude market today. energy. because energy seems to be going hat in hand with the performance of the equity markets. now, we could spend a long time debating why that is. but let's take it at face value. let's take another thing at face value. one of the best hedges for weak stocks is buying treasuries. and buying treasuries pushes yields down. what i really want to get at today is what was a common thread where we had all the weakness at the beginning of the year, much of the weakness ended over the last six or seven sessions, have equities, as you heard on cnbc, are now positive for the month of february. so let's go to the charts for a minute. if we look at the low that was established in january of 2015, it was around 146. if you look back, not that many weeks ago, 11th of february, 166 was the low. and that was an interesting session. because not only was the settlement close at 166, but

let's head over to the bond pits and check in with rick santelli. rick? >> good morning, kelly.t place to start is a lot of the action we've seen in treasuries of late correlates with what's going on in ekties and the value or appetite for risks. there's other variables. the bank of japan put a penalty rate of minus 10 basis points. the fallout has been dropping yields. an action that was canceled. i'm not sure precisely the reason, does it matter? auction canceled, close to zero rates on ten-year jdbs there must have been certain details not thought through. that's what i want you the viewer to think about. what state of mind is the world -- look at the behavior of china and the behavior of the japanese, what they're trying to do claims of success and think about what i just pointsed out. let's look at the october 28th start of last year to this year. tens, everybody is talking about it. the comps are really yesterday. on the ten-year, yesterday's yield pushed this to a comp around february of 2015. let's look at bunds, two-day bunds, flirting with that 29 level two days in a r

and thank you, mark. >> rick santelli, thank you very much.head on the program, shares of priceline having their best on the company's big earnings beat, the stock rallying substantially as you can see up 11%. the ceo darren huston. he'll join us live from amsterdam when we come back. the life behind it. ♪ those who have served our nation have earned the very best service in return. ♪ usaa. we know what it means to serve. get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life. here at the td ameritrade they work all the time. sup jj, working hard? working 24/7 on mobile trader, rated #1 trading app on the app store. it lets you trade stocks, options, futures... even advanced orders. and it offers more charts than a lot of other competitors do on desktop. you work so late. i guess you don't see your family very much? i see them all the time. did you finish your derivatives pricing model, honey? td ameritrade. >>> i'm sharon epperson and here's your cnbc update at this hour. four stealth fighters flew over south korea t

let's head over to the bond pits and rick santelli. good morning, rick. >> good morning, sara.ven though we had a boatload of volatility in treasuries, remember handicapping low global growth has been pretty easy. ten-year is not doing all that much heavy lifting. all you need is eyes, maybe a pair of glasses, just be awake the last several years. as you look at tens on a two-day chart, today is different than yesterday. volatility, listen, there's a lot of speculating going on. there is. the machines are plugged in. the reversals in stocks, the reversals in extremes from tense. it mostly only matters on where the market closes. that's been going down, too. a lot of attention paid to the yield curve. i totally agree. i also totally agree that lots of securities in the hands of central bankers may distort the signals. but it is what it is. everybody is looking at this, tense minus twos, flat today, not yesterday, technically, going back almost precisely to the beginning of january of 2008. let's look at another yield curve trade. i'm not sure if the signal is better, but it's go

let's get more from rick santelli. ning. >> i would like to welcome my special guest, william archer, former congressman from the great state of texas. allowing me to call him bill. thanks for taking the time. >> you bet, rick. great to be on your program. >> seems to me if we want to oversimplify what is wrong with the country we can. but it's easier to oversimplify this incredible economy like a golden goose. the more we try to pull the feathers off the goose, the more many say we're still the best there is, but we're a mere shadow of what we could be in part because of this deterioration, in part because congress writes a lot of legislation with a lot of blanks and leaves it to regulators, the fourth branch of government that work in as staff to fill in the blanks. is there any question that when you look at a johnson controls and a tyco with an irish address they're conforming to really problematic legislation that in its entirety is known as the corporate tax code and they make a viable decision to interact with it

now let's get to the cme group, rick santelli with the santelli exchange. >> good morning, jon. we all know that japan and the eurozone are really pedal to the metal with regard to quantitative easing. let's look at some charts, shall we? we know quantitative easing is a currency buster for the country of qe origin. but hold the phone. not so. let's look at a chart of the euro versus dollar. last time was at these levels was october of last year. let's open the chart up two years. the reason i open it up two years is, this is looking like it could really clear a zone and have some room. you think that has room? let's look at the dollar/yen. last time it was here was in november of '14. open that chart up to three years, lots of room. the reason i bring this up, unintended consequences. i'm calling this segment, 4 at 40. what do i mean by that? okay. looking at just the top four economies with the most negative rates, switzerland at 15 years. japan out to 10 years. germany, or the eurozone high quality sovereign benchmark out to 8 years. the netherland out to 7 years. add it up.

let's get the action from rick santelli at the cme. >> indeed you're right. yields were falling, but about the last 90 minutes or so yields have been rising and that wasn't lost on this auction. the auction grade for demand at 1:00 eastern straight up i gave a b, as in boy. let's go through it. 34 billion five year notes, yield at auction, whisker under 117. 1.169. and that really is pretty good because the offer side of the one issue market was 117 1/2. here is the rub. in the nine minute s before the auction ended a few moments ago, the yields moved from 112 to 117 in the one issue market. like the rest of the market. so i did take that into consideration a bit. 2.44 bid to cover, pretty close to ten auction average. 67.3 indirect, little better than the 60% ten auction average. but we were there, did that, done that, july of last year, we had a higher rate. and 10% on directs was also solid, but within the last three auctions, we hit that mark as well. solid above average auction. tomorrow will complete 88 billion in supply with 28 billion seven-year notes

rick santelli at the cme in chicago for this morning's exchange. ood morning, simon. where have all the oil speculators gone? i don't think they've gone any where. i think they turned their card over that. was the title of a piece penned by the following gentlemen, brad schaeffer, my guest today. brad, thanks for taking the time. >> it is a pleasure to be here. thanks for having me. >> listeners viewers, off camera, i said five or ten off bets. this has cracked the list. what i like best, brad, and you can expand upon this, is the noeks that the last time oil was at $100 in the front was i believe around july of 2014. i look up at the board now, i see that oil is trading around 33, almost $34. you know, there was times we were at $150. how did we get this correction in your opinion? >> market forces took over. supply and demand. like it usually does. that was really the gist of the piece that i had written, which was that i had seen so many pundits out there basically the moment the market started to get to a level that they felt was uncomfortable,

let's get to the bond pits, check in with rick santelli at the cme. morning, rick. >> good morning, carl. i'll tell you what, when numbers become important, when they become the fulcrum for policy in air quotes it's amazing how deep many traders will dig to find relevance. today on this floor everybody is looking at non-seasonably adjusted data. the ratio to the population with regard to outside of the labor force participation. why? they want to find clues. the wage component and the mean reversion are the headline number, and they are putting potential fed back on the table. and will it happen? i don't know. but that's what's going on down here. the majority are watching most closely which settle at 133 basis points last week. it's the biggest move. it has the biggest net change on the year. five-year note. look at the intraday. notice where it bounced from. 120. opening the chart up for one year. the reason that 115 to 120 is so important, the next chart, august of 2011, you have tops at those areas on the left, bottoms on the right. significant to

let's head to the bond pits and rick santelli joins us from the cme group in chicago. rick?ood morning, david. what do you think you'll get in a dark pool? transparency? come on. it's appropriately named. something you should be aware of. this is not a peter sellers movie, but kazakhstan they raised their rates 100 basis points. their benchmark is 17%. the only reason i point it out is to show how crazy some of this stuff is around the globe. as for fields, we are up a bit on the day. that's not the issue. that's why we will use two-day charts. tense up a bit today. ten-day chart shows you friday was a dramatic move down in yield, up in price. bank of japan really the culprit. two-day of bunds, same dynamic. one-year chart there is enlightening just like in treasuries, comping back to april of last year. the comp back to bunds is basically single digits. dollar index, same thing but a little different. the dollar is a little bit lower today, boy, did it fly on friday. two-day chart there. one-year chart reveals the dollar index is hovering below a breakout -- big breakout f

rick santelli here with a special guest if you're thinking about the federal reserve.sor john taylor, thanks for taking the time, john. >> absolutely. thank you. >> listen, due to a perverse set of risk-off type scenarios, we are witnessing the dollar really getting tagged pretty good against the yen, and against the euro currency. one of the big issues with normalization, of course, is the strength of the dollar. do you see any place for the fed to implement or use some of the current dynamics in policy? or is that just too flexible for an entity so big? >> i think what it says is they should try to continue on this normalization or whatever you call it. it's what they've got to do. they've been reacting to the turbulence in the markets in some sense causing the turbulence. if they take this opportunity to say we've got this strategy to normalize, it's out there, we're going to continue with it, i think that will create some certain certainty and be a good opportunity to do that. chair's going to be testifying the next couple of days. >> there's obviously legislation

let's get to rick santelli. >> thanks, david. need to know about today's market, you can see in the short end of the treasury curve. an intraday of two-year note yields, up five on the day. that was in response to the hotter than expected cpi, which was followed by its cousin earlier in the week, which was a hotter than expected ppi. we've all heard the song and dance about goods being offset by services with respect to upward pricing pressures. all this in a low-growth environment is something the markets are cognizant of. i still contend that if you're looking at the long end to be dealing a hand of greeting future price indexindexes, you' wasting your time. look at the intraday 30. unchanged on the day. we're handicapping the market in realtime based on that 8:30 data. tens versus twos, that trade flattening is giving you all the things you need. even the 30 versus the 5, flattening. 24-hour bund, probably operating under the premise that it's just low growth. look, it breached 17 today. two day of the dollar index, we had vol

busy morning for rick santelli in chicago. >> definitely busy.hasn't been much of a positive investor response as central bankers continue to push rates negative. not sure what outcome they're looking for, but imagine all the various rates around the globe locked this arm moving in the same direction. hard to imagine anything else could happen. let's look at a two year note yield. it's comping back towards october. most is really the slow growth story. let's look at a longer term chart of fives. because they have been stellar in predicting the future. we talked about how the 115 to 118 level was crucial on a closing basis. hot knife through butter, about the size of the hancock building went through very soft butter. look at the chart, you can see what i mean. we're not far away from it. looks like 1% is the next pause. but now it becomes a game of the resistance of 115 to 120 above the market with respect to yields. let's go further down the curve. let look at a ten year note and let's look at a ten year chart. we're kochling towa incomping tt t

rick santelli. >> demand is the great -- it was a bit above average. i gave the grade a b minus, b as in boy minus, yield in auction of 23 billion 10-year notes. looks like 1.73, 1.75, 1.74 is traded priced right with one issued market. if i look at bid to cover, white fly in the ointment, 2.56, versus 2.65 ten auction average. lowest since august of 2015. everything else, 62.3 on indirect. a little better than ten auction average. 15.3 on direct, best since may of 2015. primary dealers get 22.4 in the auction. so b minus, makes sense. when there is all these issues regarding the fed, tomorrow is the longest end. we finish off with 15, 1.5 billion of 30 year bonds. melissa lee, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you so much. let's continue discussion. would the markets -- >> i want to point out with the u.s. government can sell bonds, 2.5 times bid to cover at 173, that is an a in my book. >> you're selling 173 on the yield and you can sell at 2 1/2 times bid to cover, that's an a in my book. what were you going to ask? i'm sorry. before i interrupte

let's go back to rick santelli. good morning, rick. >> good morning.elcome biederman, biederman, biederman. charles biederman, thanks for taking the time. >> good to be here. >> i have to start out with a friend of yours, martin heldstein. the u.s. economy is in good shape. one of the sentiments is income is rising, production is tag sharply. two sentences later, basically paraphrase f phrasing that the unwindings of mismanaged prici. amen. listen. we have a solid 2% economy. maybe eve detear rating from that. wages, we've had one month of popping. we hope it's more. dwlou square the motion? there's such a naivety about everything. whether it's the 2% economy in the shoulder bags or dumb legislation reforming dumber legislation is a good idea. >> well, corporate taxes is the most difficult thing. the money they make overseas is taxed overseas. instead of the stupid policy of taxes twice, companies are trying to avoid that and companies are saying it. why are they -- you should tax people taking money out of companies. it hinders economic growth. the re

now let's go to chicago and check in with rick santelli. rick? >> thanks, mary. you hit one of the big dynamics. it doesn't matter how it fits into the global financial puzzle with regard to the price of oil. we know that the machines like to create relationships. they'll pound them until they stop working. if you look at yields, our yields are either higher or unchanged depending on which part of the curve you look at. on the higher end, short maturi maturities. two day of twos. look at the formation relative to friday's session. when you flip it further down the curve to ten-year on a two-day, you can see what i mean. the right side is not as aggressive as the left side. we're unchanged on tens. unchanged on tens and 30s if we go to bunds, look at a two-day of bunds. they had a low yield testing 18 basis points. on a closing basis, these are levels we have not closed below since april. it continues to reinforce not only the spread between our tens, but how all these sovereign credits are linked toda together. you want to watch this area. if you open up the char

but first, rick santelli, what are you watching today? >> much of the policy around the globe to try to fix the low product activity issues that we face may not be working but one thing is for sure, it's that people have a pretty good sense of what makes them feel comfortable and what doesn't and we're going to talk about some issues in japan that might make you think about what lies ahead. especially what's in your wallet after the break. know your financial plan won't keep you up at night. know you have insights from professional investment strategists to help set your mind at ease. know that planning for retirement can be the least of your worries. with the guidance of a pnc investments financial advisor, know you can get help staying on track for the future you've always wanted. >>> coming up on the halftime show what a flurry of earnings tells us about the strength of the consumer and plus the brothers and the oracle. digging through warren buffet's portfolio for the name they think he should dump and they don't agree. how much pain

good morning, rick santelli. >> good morning. oh, there is a lot of yelling going on behind me as well. option pits get a bit rambunctious when questions and answers come into play. is it all about janet yellen? i can't tell you that. what i can tell you is with regard to the pre-release of her testimony the economy certainly isn't too high. now the real issue is that she didn't underscore that. that's too cold. that's my read t. reason that's important. i continue to say the biggest miscalculations of investors for 2016 may be that they look at what's going on within the economy and the global xi and decide that's enough to stop normalization. i think the feds embrking on normalization for many reasons, not necessarily all of them fall under conventional wisdom. look at it into today at five. it's a little bit long. a little bit short. a little of the cocoa bond. a little bit dead. a little equity. can you see it bounded around the time most of the reward were hitting the screen. open it up to a one week chart. this is fascinati

first, rick santelli, what are you watching today?tching what simon has been watching, the credit markets, whether it's credit defaults, spreads. everything seems to be coming back to a certain type of reality that we haven't seen since the credit crisis. what happened? how is it going to change? how can we best monitor what credit is trying to tell us? all after the break. the future belongs to the fast. and to help you accelerate, we've created a new company... one totally focused on what's next for your business. the true partnership where people,technology and ideas push everyone forward. accelerating innovation. accelerating transformation. accelerating next. hewlett packard enterprise. >>> let's get to chicago and the santelli exchange are rick. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl. i want you to look at a chart. an april chart, roughly the 20th of april of last year for ten-year boom deals. and the point of that chart i'm trying to get you to focus on, the low yield ever on a closing basis was a little over seven basis poi

. >> but first, rick santelli, what are you watching today. >> and trading minus 50 basis points. 10ear, japanese government bonds and close to zero yield. no auction for those. what is going on? we're going to talk about recalibration. a global affair. after the break. do you know what i just realized? over at dell.com shipping is free. go ahead ask me where. anywhere in the u.s. they can ship here. they love shipping to these. they can even ship here. that's steve. he's a good boy. dell.com loves shipping everything for free. they'll ship here, they'll ship there, they'll ship over there. they'll ship all over that whole area. there's free shipping at dell.com! so now you know. ♪ >>> coming up on the halftime show, larry fink and bill miller. we'll ask rich ranked number six on the list of the country's top 100 financial advisors whether he agrees. plus s&p cuts the the ratings on ten big oil company with three names now in junk. we're going to talk to the man behind the downgrades to see if even more are coming. and as we countdown to the big game, nfl and super bowl legend jerry

thank you very much, rick santelli.ill to come, a live interview with apple's attorney, ted boutrous. we're back in a moment. (son) pa, i know we settle for cable... but directv has been number one in customer satisfaction over cable for 15 years. (father) how 'bout over 15 satisfying years with that woman over there boiling your clothes. her layers and layers of...layers. hair that i've rarely seen because it's always under that bonnet. and how she fought off that grizzly and made him into these slippers. that's satisfaction son. (vo) don't be a settler, get a $100 reward card when you switch to directv. this just got interesting. why pause to take a pill? or stop to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use is approved to treat both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, or adempas for pulmonary

. >> let's go to the bond report, and rick santelli. or maybe i'm doing it. no rick santelli.e is the two year note. >> do the bond report coconut water man. >> the yields i guess you would say are higher, the ten year at 1.79%. based on the green numbers that means they are all just a little bit as the safety trade lessens just a bit as equities move higher. the s&p up 1an 5%. nasdaq up close to 2% at my last check. there is your bond report. >> now we'll check on the metals market. call this the gold report. guess what. gold is not loved today n. fact we are seeing the price of an ounce of gold down $31.50. of course with all the volatility we have seen globally, currenciwise, central bank wise gold caught a huge bid. not today. down $31.30 per ounce. silver down 3%%. palladium down 3.3%. the big decliner today. all the gold is down. nonprecious metals are higher. aluminum, copper and nickel are up. melissa, you were desperate to know how nickel was trading? >> i was. >> 5% gain, up $400 per ton to $81.20 for the two people out there in america that trade nickel. that was th

rick santelli. >> the dow -- the indexes are relatively flat. it is effectively the last chance to get major positions in before tomorrow's employment reports. >> coming up, the video of the day, martin shkreli, meg will have the highlights and speak wi ben brafman who called his client a hero. >>> duncan dough nuts taking a hit as mcdonald's launches the breakfast program. what he will do to beat back the competition. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. nobody move! get on the floor! do something! oh i'm not a security guard, i'm a security monitor. i only notify people if there is a robbery. there's a robbery. why monitor a problem if you don't fix it? that's why lifelock does more than free credit monitoring to protect you from identity theft. we not only alert you to identity threats, if you have a problem, we'll spend up to a million dollars on lawyers and experts to fix it. lifelock. join starting at $9.99 a month. >>> welcome back, a rally day for has bro and mattel today. hasbro makes "star wars" toys and my little pony. c

wisdom tree investments and keith bliss at post nine and rick santelli from chicago as well. keith, as we stand here the dow has popped up 102 points after being down 145 earlier in the day. similar to yesterday's late day rally. what's calling the shots here? what's going on in this market in your view? >> quite simply what you're seeing in the last couple of days and first four or five weeks, you're seeing a sloppiness in the market which is indicative of a lot of indifference in some circles but indecision in most circles. we've seen a consolidation pattern start to emerge in that. when you're setting lower highs and higher lows, that means we're consolidating into a decision point that has to be maintained. but i think it's inescapable when you look at what's happening with oil prices in the correlation to the equity market, we need to talk about that. but the news on chesapeake was very revealing by why oil prices are impacting the markets so much today. not about a global growth story but the fact that energy has been the biggest growth driver in our economy in the last

we want to get back to normal sized rate but she should not have raised. >> enter rick santelli, how would you read financial conditions at present? >> i think there probably is a significant chance that the global slowdown will affect the united states. james bull ard, we pay close attention to what he says because he's an f 1c member but the track record isn't the type i would think on morning star's best list. he was totally talking about extreme monetary policy as late as december of last year, right on cnbc.com article and all for the rate increase. he said to pay attention to inflation, excluding oil. listen, what nobody is perfect, but he immersed himself in this. i would have much preferred that he would concentrate on maybe one of the biggest reasons why interest rates in this country are where they are at. look no farther than a boom. china goes down and the rest of the world seems to ignore it. why are rates down a handful of basis points today? it isn't from the data. the data was better than expected. now let's look at a boom chart. they settled at 13 basis points, the f

. >> let's get over to rick santelli. >> thanks. i want to show you a couple of charts.at the first chart. a little over one year chart of five year note yields. consider they're at one year low closing yields technically as of the second of february and that closing low yield was 126 currently trading lower today at 124. so it's possible to set the time back a little bit. now let's look at something interesting. let's open this chart up to august of 2011. now look at the chart. be the chart. this is my renation of the chart you just looked at starting in august of 2011. if you notice in october of 2011 and march of 12 you had double tops. fast forward. if you look at 2015 in the first couple of weeks you had a double bottom. a couple of weeks apart. on the 15th of january of last year you had a 116. a couple of weeks later on the 30th of january you had a 115. currently tading as i said 124. all right now let's look and see the net change of the major maturities along the yield curve in the u.s. and europe. okay. they're down 34 basis points in the u.s. and 14 basis poi

rick santelli. the ceo of hilton will join us to talk about the latest quarter.imeshare business ahead of the oscars. looking at hollywood's fight against it's streaming competition live on the red carpet in a moment. >>> kicking off with a lot of the agenda today. we'll bring you the headlines of what it could mean for the stock. plus stocks are in the green but does the rally really have more legs? and herbal life and the government in talks about a resolution to the probe of that company. we talk to someone that calls that news historic. that stock is surging at this hour. we'll see you in about 15. >> what a story. thank you so much, scott. we'll see you soon. take a look at shares of hilton worldwide. announcing this morning it plans to get out of the real estate business spinning off it's timeshare unit and most of its assets. joining us exclusively today is hilton's president and ceo. chris it's good to have you back. good morning. >> thanks, carl. great to be with you. >> we've seen this trend in hotels. other industries it's been, it's gotten less tracti

. >> rick santelli, thank you.oncern is growing over the stalled ipo market but our next guest says there's one sector that could still be poised for big pops. plus stocks making a bit of a come back right now. dow is down less than 1%. that's better than we saw earlier in the morning. squawk alley will be right back. >>> the stalled ipo market taking it's toll on silicon valley valuations but could health care still be a start up sector to watch? about $4 billion in investments each year the health investment sector is still growing. steven is a partner and steven, we've heard that health care was attractive for venture for some time simply because it was so confusing, so heavily regulated. why is that still the case? >> well, i think it's a massive market. and not only is it a large market but it's one that's going through fundamental change just five years ago more than 50% of doctors did not use an electronic software to capture patient data. that's just astonishing. this is an industry that's going through cha

rick santelli will talk to the chief of all things labor ed lazear in a minute. >>> coming up on theftime show. with the plunge in several of the nasdaq momentum names means for investors. plus today's jobs report, does it put a march rate hike back on the table. we debate. and we size up super bowl 50 with joe theismann and dan patrick. we'll see you in about ten minutes. >>> now let's get to the cme group and the is an telsantelli. >> i'd like to welcome ed lazear back. thanks for taking the time today. >> great to be with you. >> unemployment days certainly have changed. there was a time when you just look at the headline numbers and move on. not so anymore. so many different ways to go. why don't you tell me your impressions of this report pay plaur l particularly close attention on the headline weakness, difference between that and household survey and maybe most important, some of those numbers on wages and revisions. what was your impression? >> well, i actually think this is quite a strong report. and i'll tell you why. the headline number is a bit low as we've seen, 151,000

rick santelli live on a nervous cme floor. there is so much volatility. traders don't mind it, but, boy, two helpings today. look at intraday of 30s. had a deplorably weak demand auction, even with the dutch process. boy, 237 was our low yield at 8:00 a.m. eastern this morning. right now we're trading, what, right around 2.50. open the chart up from the beginning of 2015. wow. check this out. at the lows of the day, early february of 2015, now we're comping to early april of 2015. five-year, not a lot of difference. i'm picking this short because i think it is one of the most important maturities to pay attention to. if you look, it was at 96 basis points. currently around 110, 109. heck of a range. early comps were may 28th to 13, now june 18th of 2013. but now look at the 24 hour dollar index. does this look as volatile as the interest rates? there is mean liquidation going on, or selling the rates cash. but this is like half a capitulation trade and something worth monitoring if you're an interest rate observer. back to you. >> rick, thank you very muc

let's check in with rick santelli and get the santelli exchange. >> the machines have changed the world many ways and it's not for me to address whether that's an improvement or not an improvement. it is what it is. there's the context of the marketplace which really show cases how traders interact with the machines. so let's look at context and a couple of barclays charts, shall we? let's look at the barclay's index. it's a five year chart in investment grade corporates. even though we have seen improvement in the etf side and price side, these are elevated spreads. look at them in the context of the last time we saw widening in 2011-2012. let's look at the five year high yield. well over 800 basis points now. same dynamic as the investment grade so the context is a nervous market even though there have been improvements these r barometers are at elevated levels. let's look at another issue we need to be cognizant of. i'm talking about day trading interest rates. let's look starting in the spring of 2014 just so you can clearly see what we talked about over the last several santelli ex

let's get to the cme group this morning and check in with rick santelli and get the santelli exchan exchange>> thanks, carl, you know, i don't think it's going to be a 7 in tens and i don't think it's going to be a 6 in stocks. of course, i'm referring to a recent streaks. as y it has been an amazing year for stocks. tens sb six down closes in a row. down if it's going to be seven on the ten-year. one of the reasons is just logistics. after being on trading floors for over three decades, closing in on four decades, what i find is, there's a lot of things that make trading unique. and in the day i did most of it, it was really people and access and you know, how much markets could handle, when they got swamped. there used to be times in the grain room where you wouldn't get your prices back for hours because they were busy. those days are long gone. much of the trade's machines, the traders are done by machines. but, the logistics, even though they've changed are important. let's talk about something. as we see so much selling in 2016, and really, it's very shortsighted to stop there. because

let's get to rick santelli. hi, rick. >> the creep of rates continues moving higher. we crossed the threshold of 180 in a ten-year. we have not had many close above 180, since the 5th of february there's been one. if you open the chart up to get context, beginning of 2014, you can see we're flirting with the double bottom in the mid 160s. something you want to pay attention to. selling for higher rates, putting stops below that yield level. two-day bund, same dynamic. pretty powerful. if you look at this chart, since early march of last year, you can see that the 16 through 19 area really is important with bunds. it held again as we move back into the low 20s. hyg even turned. if you look at year to date chart, of course the risk on trade is showing up in many places, not the least of which is this etf that represents high yield, not the spreads but the price value. if we look at a long-term chart study of february of '09, the pound versus the dollar, it's the talk of the town. this is a big financial kingpin out of the financial structure of london, this may change i

with us mark stepper, kenny polcari, and welcome back rick santelli. he's there in chicago. i think you have a little lower number, don't you? >> right leer is where i thought we were going to hit some resistance. we're teasing with it right now, but i still think it's going to kind of fail. i would agree with arthur that maybe it's got more room, but we've had this fairly dramatic move, and i think it's going to back off. >> what parts of this market are you investing in? >> i actually do not believe in this rally right now. i think we're rallies from oversold levels. in order to be sustainable rally, we need a legitimate catalyst, and we haven't seen that. in order for this to be sustainable, we need some easier monetary policy, which could help to accelerate growth globally. we need to get reversals in oil, the dollar that is actually significant. where are we investing? we're defensive. we do like large 46 cap defensive do mist ig oriented stock right now, particularly different payers, because not only are they better performers, this should be able to withstand a marke

kenny polcari from o'neal securities, and our very own rick santelli. jason, it's clearly a buys opportunity relative to where we were six week ago. is it greater as we go through the year? where are these markets going? >> we've done a bit of work on correction, and big surprise, the ultimate results of that work that turns out to be a buying opportunity. you tend to be equity markets recover within the next eight months, now if it happened to be one of thoset 12 another. >>> dramatic, in the we can wit and the global financial arena. let's be frank here. let's not call it a mistake or good move. let's say the fed's move in december was is the chinese central bank's -- or bank of china and of course what's going on with the ecb. it's their action in context that's given a recalibration a very long life. until this is all done, until we see the landscape of how the markets are managed, it's different to get a handle. wow, we're having a 400 -- go on. i wonder if that's what we were, where you have dudley saying effectively, maybe we won't raise rates, t

fitzgerald from monday morning.com, and -- and don't adjust your set, that is ashes on his forehead and rick santelli checks in from chicago as well. sarge, you and i were chatting earlier, janet yellen was -- >> i think you it's mon tier policy if she would have put down the microphone and said questions, i think that would have summed up the entire half daye. where does that leave you? >> very, very cautious, because i didn't see anything in her -- that indicates she's in control. it's a totally reactionary policy. i was flabbergasted. she said recent market turmoil. we've been talking about how volatile things are getting. or -- is absolutely flabbergasting to me. >> in fairness it's got precipitously worse than anything we saw at the end of last years. that's a very, very fair point, but the market is trying to tell you -- to steve's point, it's trying to tell you. they're trying to take merits into its own hands. rick, what did you hear janet yellen say today? >> we didn't fully look at the legal issues around that. and the "that" she's referring to you are negative rates. to me i was flabbergas

kenny follow khari is over at post 9 and our own rick santelli. welcome, everybody. just to begin with you, kenny, what caused the turn are turnaround? >> i think it was technical. you saw the market kind of -- they defended that level. from there the market just started to make its way back. i think it's much more technical. that being said we're smack within the 1850, 1950 trading range that we've been in now for a good two months. there's no reason to break up or down unless there's a real catalyst. that's got there shall a change in a psyche, a catalyst that will call it to break up or break down. we haven't seen it yet, so we're stuck in this pittsburgh tore. >> what do you think was the spark that ended the previous ten-day rebound that we had seen before the last few days? >> statistically a tactical move. traders had a good run, they wanted to lighten up. i think the comments out of the middle east regarding the oil and production data in the united states all combine to this witches' brew. nobody knows whether to get going or go through the door. until the u

. >>> let's get to rick santelli in chicago. >>> thank you. peter, welcome.efore we talk i want to read a couple of things. "we may well be entering a world where established macro economic relationships no longer hold with regularity we once thought." "this is by mario draghi. you underscored it in your writing today, "the risk of side effects would not stand in our way." i ask you, is that mario draghi's neville chamberlain's moment? >> yes. this is scorched earth policy to get this arbitrary level of inflation they refer to as 2%. this is monetary corporate bombing. he'll break anything just to get to 2% inflation because he can say we met our objective, regardless of everything they burn down around it. they create massive financial instability to create this illusion that 2% inflation is somehow a good thing. >> all right. in your own words, you use the phrase carpet bombing. mario draghi is regularly associated with the bazooka. is this central bank warfare? i mean this in the most serious way. >> central bankers should be in the background of our lives

joining us eric ristovan, peter kosta from empire executions is standing by at post 9 and rick santelli checks in from chicago. peter, we're just off the lows right now down over 200 points on the dow. the s&p at 1920 as i said earlier, you know, the laws of physics haven't been repealed. can't go up forever. what do you make of today's decline? >> today is all about oil. i think we're going to continue to see this in lock step. oil and s&p are going to perform like that probably until i'm going to say until you start getting into the election season. and i know that we're doing a lot with the caucuses and all of that and the primaries, but i think once there are candidates chosen for each party, i'm really thinking that that's the time you're going to see a divergence. that's when investors will start looking at, you know, platforms, what the future might hold for the country depending on who gets elected. i think that's when you are really going to see that divergence. >> gordon charlot made a similar point. get through super tuesday, get some clarity on who the front-runner might be,

david kelly from j.p morgan fans and jonathan and rick santelli. can you describe what's going on right here with the reset of investor expectations and the fact that really stocks were not able to capture anything positive out of that jobs report this morning. >> yeah, i think we're stuck in a swamp of irrationality, people are making fundamental mistakes and believe the u.s. economy is due for recession and val yauations don't matter anymore, all of these are mistakes. the u.s. economy is nowhere near a recession. and stocks look very cheap relative to the rate of inflation and yield of cash and bonds. it is irrational, i don't know when it's going to break but i do see opportunity for people to keep their heads when the market seems to have lost its -- >> it's a mistake going on for about six months now. is the market not telling us that maybe things are souring? >> i think the market really is misunderstanding the economics here. we see the falling unemployment rate and it's because of low labor force growth and that's fine, that's the way the

joining us to talk about this among other things, mark matson and keith bliss from cutoton an rick santelli. >> he makes a case for buy and hold. jack is a huge proponent of that as well. does that work for you are we in a different era? are you going to argue that? >> it works for everybody, long term every investor can be a bull. no matter how severe the downward movement of the stock is, in the long run they are all minor blips. no one can tell you what's going to happen in next six or 12 months, stop trying to forecast it and own not just the u.s. market but you have to be looking in europe and asia and 12,000 stocks long term then you won't have to worry what's going to happen tomorrow. >> 12,000, all right. >> keith bliss, speaking of numbers, looking at the s&p 500, we're pretty close to where we finished january even though february has been a dramatic one. quha does th what does that say? >> we built a lot of momentum over the last couple of weeks and we got one of our best indicators along that line and picked that up last week. the markets just stlruggling here. if we can't close

anastasia from jp morgan funds and sarnlg, steven gilfoil and rick santelli from chicago as well. sarge, we've had this running commentary, does this rally hold for you just because it's expiration day we see something else happen tomorrow? what does the stock market do about that? >> you know, it's hard to see it this way right now, but i don't believe we're extremely correlated. we're getting ag push in energy and transports but we're getting a nice push in everything else. if you look at the way stocks traded on thursday and friday, we had mild down days but generally speaking, they were not really risk off days. it was nor like traders were hedging long bets rather than taking them off the table. i think we're seeing today, you can't call it parabolish, but since we hit 1810 on the s&p 500, we're moving in a pretty straight line -- almost a straight like. >> up to 1941 and the fact the vix is below 20, what elimination are you looking at in this market? >> if you want to bring oil into the equation, it's highly correlated with the s&p right now. a move of 1950 in the s&p 500 w

rick santelli, what's going on. >> i'll tell you what's going on, yields are going down. time when our economy was much better than the recent spat of data since thanksgiving demonstrates. and even then europe's relative value trade when their yields were dropping, in 2015, 2014, we followed. now our data is deteriorating and europe's yields are moving lower. it is a double whammy. look at february 1 of the, last time, early february, since we were down here, you see ten-year yields. boone yie boon yields, 26 basis points. if you look at french two-year, ten-year chart, minus 41 basis points. italian two-year, negative one basis point. it is like a herd mentality. central banks are pushing rates down and the outcome is exactly what they seem to try to prevent. it is a spiral. and if you look at year to date dollar index, you see its recent move, this cements the notion there is changing dynamics in the interpretation of the direction of our central bank, no interpretation needed on foreign central banks. tyler, melissa, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much. bill mill

rick santelli here, live on the floor of the cme group.n, risk off, seems to be a bit of a risk off. excuse me, risk on. why? nobody really knows. was if mario draghi, the three-day weekend, china was coming back and we overpunched the market? you can see this process coming through in the charts. february start of the ten-year. we reversed right along with higher stocks. we have higher rates. not only there. let's look at the hyg. in the neighborhood of the lowest levels since the summer of 2009. look at february 1st start, moving in the other direction. year to date, we stopped gold, which was on a tear as well. if you look at march 2002 of what is going on with the crb index, it isn't moving up, but year to date, it looks like there may be a double bottom. all this is important to pay attention to and ponder because "power lunch" will return after the break. >>> i'm sharon epperson. here is your cnbc news update at this hour. at least 18 people were killed and 45 others wounded in the turkish capital of ankara. when a vehicle laden with

we have kim forest joining us from capital group and steve grasso and along with rick santelli. great to see everybody, kim, the point was made that the u.s. economy will come to the rescue. how do you feel about conditions and investing in this climate right now? >> we're long-term investors and we like to think that we buy collections of companies as opposed to trade stocks. so that being said, we're looking for 2016 to be a flat year for earnings and most likely revenue for most of the companies that we follow. so it's pretty much a treading water sort of scenario. and so far the data is pointing to that. there's pluses and some minuses and it's pretty lackluster out there. >> kim, does that mean there are opportunities for you guys? where do you then look around and say this sell-off is maybe an opportunity to get into x or y or z? >> sure, there's always opportunity if you're looking and you're a value person. let's put it this way. there's always a sector that's unloved and always a sector or bunch of companies that are in the midst of reinventing themselves and turning th

we have kimberly from wealth management and peter costa and rick santelli. after three consecutive days pretty good rallies, 1% each day for the s&p. is the rally pausing before it resumes higher or has this rocket run out of fuel? >> the market was oversold going into the beginning of the week, now it's overbought. we're going to continue in the pattern of being oversold, overbought for probably another month or so. i think there's going to be the volatility. today there's none. but we will continue to see it and i think that will continue. you know what, it's a good thing, good for us on the floor. most of our accounts are trading accounts, they do get involved and get out of it. it's actually a positive for us. but overall it's a little scary when you see the market up 5% or 4% on the week and next week might see a turnaround. people get nervous with that. >> i wonder whether this market reflects this tug of war going on where you had james bull ard saying first, a little more hawkish, maybe we shouldn't be going as we planned, maybe we should respond mor

rick santelli tracking the action at the cme. hi, rick. >> hi, tyler.mazing how much volatility we had, but i can't stress enough it is really where you close. and sometimes on the week, on the month, on the quarter, it is more important than on the session. let's look at the yield curve, shall we. 5s now, up six basis points on the day, down five on the week. 10s up 8 on the day, down 8 on the week. and if i look at 10s, what really jumps out at me as we trade, 1.74 yesterday the low yield. intraday, not the close, 1.52. a lot of machines doing a lot of day trading and not so much on the position side. above and beyond all the liquidation we have talked about ongoing, if i look at 30s, they're up 9 on the day, down 7 on the week, dollar index very interesting here. hovering just over 96 now. yes, that's up half a cent on the day. still down a penny on the week. it is the blending of all of those charts when you look at the fixed income and the dollar index to troy to gauge exactly how much of the selling is ongoing, as long as we remain above a 95 prep

. >> and rick santelli with heartland financial -- >> no, but i'm in the heartland. >> in chicago there. the big question for traders with this comeback has been is this rally for year or is this just a bounce and are we destined to continue lower? where do you stand? >> i'm not buying into this rally just yet. there's so many different factors here. one it was a short week. a lot of activity into four days. we've had a lot of volatility both on the down side and upside and volume hasn't supported any of that. i think the activity in the last two days had been the most healthy activity we've seen. the most hasn't done that much. we're starting to build a little bit of a base. we need to see if that will continue over time. the bounce off 1812 last week was a technical bounce and the issues we spoken about over the past few weeks are still here. there's nothing different or changed from last week to this week. interestingly enough, as we get into next week, monday is going to be a very -- nonevent day so to speak, not a lot of earnings or economic data. we're going to see on monday if th

. >>> to the bond market, rick santelli tracking it all at the cme. >> even though rates are elevated a couple of basis points, we haven't recouped a lot of the buying that pushed rates down on friday. a year to date chart of 10s minus 2s, it is flattening. here is something interesting, go down the curve, look at 30s minus 5s, it is steepening. it is steepening at a rate of plus 14. the previous 10s minus 2s flatter by 8. euro versus yen, if you look at it since december 1st we're now at the best levels on the euro versus yen since december. the trade to watch, 133. let's look at two nine-year charts. they both look similar. the hyg in worse shape. we want to watch the etfs, good thermometer on the boiling point of some of the credit markets as it relates to energy. tyler and melissa lee, back to you. >> thank you very much, rick. >>> alphabet the last of the so-called f.a.n.g. stocks to report its earnings. the stock higher ahead of the results. later today, should you buy ahead of these numbers? there is the stock. and look at the one year gain on that baby. ♪ light piano today i s