joe duran from united capital is with us, steve grasso of post 9, and rick santelli is here joining us from chicago as well. hey, steevgs i was always taught, one time is an incident, two times a coincidence, third time it becomes a trend. and this is the third time in the last couple of weeks when a 200-point rally on the dow has been followed the very next day by a roughly 200-point decline. here it is. what's going on? >> people are starting to get worried. i shouldn't say starting to get worried. people are starting to focus on yellen again. china as well. the numbers haven't been that great. we've heard -- kelly and i have talked about this on "closing bell" before. february 24th, you heard china talk about their fiscal deficit to gdp ratio. they were going to increase that. if they increase that, they're really stimulating their economy. and then the market ran 10% after they stated that. so now we're seeing them -- last week they took that back off the

. >>> and now, rick santelli, what are you watching?you know, i want to do a little bit of the postmortem on the philosophical issues of the mergers meant to be, but never occurred like staples, and office depot. we have been on a long and winding road where globalization has taken the mom and pop stores and turned them into the big stores, but what is next? we will talk about that after the break. this clean was like, pow! it added this other level of clean to it. it just kinda like wiped everything clean. my teeth are glowing. they are so white. i actually really like the two steps. everytime i use this together it felt like leaving the dentist's office. crest hd, 6x cleaning, 6x whitening. i would switch to crest hd over what i was using before. >>> coming up on "halftime report" the dish debate. the hedge fund manager who is making a $100 million against the stock, and the analyst who i saw saws he has it all wrong. >>> and two big buzz kills macy's, and disney. and why pete najarian is buying a name that down 43% this week. that an

and rick santelli, what are you watching today? >> it is about the word non. is general ly accepted accounting principles, and then the non-generally accepted accounting principles like a lipstick on the pig. we have david trainer who knows a lot about this topic, and it is going on and on, and the s.e.c. is looking into it, and we are going to be looking into it after the break. go pro with oral-b. oral-b's rounded brush head cups your teeth to break up plaque and rotates to sweep it away. and oral-b delivers a clinically proven superior clean versus sonicare diamondclean. my mouth feels super clean! oral-b. know you're getting a superior clean. i'm never going back to a manual brush. >>> lit's get to cme group with rick santelli at the exchange. hello, rick. >> welcome in on the first time of the exchange, david trainer, and thank you for taking the time out on an important topic. >> great to be with you, thank you. >> all right. off camera, i was asking you what is the s.e.c. doing, because there is several articles that they are looking into this, and what

savings in terms of working capital. >>> we're talking debt, let's keep doing that and head to rick santellit the cme group in chicago. >> hey, david, that was a great piece. i give you a fist bump because the topic we're going to have all day today, santelli exchange guest negative interest rates and all the activity it sparks. michael dell ought to be very happy that this condition exists, as you pointed out. but there's some big minuses too. we'll get to that throughout the day. what happened today? retail sales. consider this the headline number at up 1.3 was the best headline number since march of 2015. the control number, 0.9 that you insert into the more macro formulas for other data points, that 0.9 was the best since march of 2014. so look for atlanta fed gdp to get really bumped up. and of course that's always good news. you see the intraday ten it popped in yields, makes sense. intraday two-year it popped in yield. i find that one fascinating because that pop was more dramatic. let's look at tens minus twos, it flattened. as a matter of fact outside of one basis point low made it

rick santelli, what are you watching today?> well, like so many investors, i'm watching the yield curve for clues. at the markets are not enamored with the negative rates, and a little ketchup makes my burger taste bet, and maybe a little ketchup on the curve will make it on the long end more appetizing for investors. medicare options until you're sixty-five, but now is a good time to get the ball rolling. keep in mind, medicare only covers about eighty percent of part b medical costs. the rest is up to you. that's where aarp medicare supplement insurance plans insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company come in. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, they could help pay some of what medicare doesn't, saving you in out-of-pocket medical costs. you've learned that taking informed steps along the way really makes a difference later. that's what it means to go long™. call now and request this free decision guide. it's full of information on medicare and the range of aarp medicare supplement plans to choose fr

let's go to rick santelli. rick? >> it's been a tough week for fixed income traders. futures, options and cash. a variety of issues collided this week. we have early closes in many markets. we're putting up some charts. we had pretty big moves to the upside in yield, at least moves on a relative scale. but everything ended yesterday afternoon. a lot because of janet yell en. not sure what to expect. many option traders neutralize positions. all day long today, traders are coming torn between get ago way from the beginning of the holiday and trading in the computerized markets versus the pits that are not open anymore. rick, is she going to say anything about policy? now my answer and i got lucky although there is still more q&a left, i didn't think so. i don't think it's a presentation or to give us cues about the economy. it shows how tightly wound traders are. we have a few stragglers behind me in other option that's are open regular time. but the fact that they're unchanged with a volatile scenario that was insighted by the minutes a week ago wednesday that made tr

rick santelli is in chicago at the cme. hey, rick. >> hi, carl. no doubt the 8:15 eastern data was weak on adp and kicked off what was mostly a round of weak data. outlier being smaller than expected trade deficit. look at intraday of 10 at 8:15 eastern, you see the drop. we have managed to come back and we were over 180 before this happened. now let's look at some one-week charts. popular things on this floor you always see traders holding their charts up to the light because there are some counterintuitive and not relegated to foreign exchange though many are, look at a one welco-week of tens pre much synonymous with one-week of bund with same downward drift similar to the crb index with the same one-week downward drift. you would think the dollar index would give more kick to the upside, but i think the extra volatility and foreign exchange period has made many traders a bit gun shy. and the last chart dollar index is in a zone we haven't seen since the beginning of 2015, and i think that's something to pay close attention to for the macrotechn

let's get to rick santelli in the bond pits this morning. interesting data out earlier today. k when it comes to our first look at gdp of course it's all about teaming up. and we're going to team up the growth that popped a bit in the second quarter looking like it's close to 3%. we still have some time to go to get through it. but that will be the averaging factor. we've seen that in many, many years. and do keep in mind last year's gdp was, you know, a bit under 2%. the previous two years were very close to 2.5%. so it's going to be interesting to see what janet yellen does say today. one thing i can tell you the markets seem to have had their fill of speculation on a tightening. now, first let's look at a two-day of tens. see that big yield drop yesterday. after the auctions were done, probably because some early closing and the long weekend, there was an exodus and it did push yields down. where did it push them to? yields or foreign exchanged everything is pretty much close to unchanged. within one basis point the whole curve is like that. even the yield curve is like that

rick santelli. coasters but with computer animated thrills and spills. why six flags is putting virtual reality on roller coasters this summer. olay luminous illuminates skin with pearl optics science. your concert style might show your age, your skin never will. with olay you age less, so you're ageless. olay. ageless. herthey work hard.ade, wow, that was random. random? no. it's all about understanding patterns. like the mail guy at 3:12pm every day or jerry getting dumped every third tuesday. jerry: every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. td ameritrade. >> oil the key focus for some people. earlier in the section we broke $50 a barrel. a lot of comments about what this means for shame producers and ultimately the saudis. we'll come back to that on and more on that later on cnbc. >>> and the theme parks will be op opening this memorial day weekend and

rick santelli has the santelli exchange. hey, rick. >> thank you, kayla.hy the june 23rd exit vote? i'll tell you what. it's surprising to me that it isn't more overwhelming in one direction or another and i do think the direction i'm surprised isn't larger is the vote to leave. they say it's a close call but nobody knows for sure. things like this are different -- difficult to poll. people don't always give you the same opinion they will have right when it gets down to that last second where they have to make a decision and it is a big decision. but it is also a lot like y2k. we are preparing for kind of an unknown. we probably overcompensate and the outcome may be nothing like we expected. granted, i guess it could be worse but what is worse? what's really going on? what isn't surprising is all the issues going on in turkshe uk a going on everywhere. think about the u.s. there's a large percentage of the zcitizenry and those in government who don't like executive orders, where one word comes in, very little debate, think about the board of education and

let's move on now to the bond pits and check in with rick santelli at the cme group in chicago. rning, david. you know, the world changed with regard to the complexion of the yield curve, sentiment about rate hikes, all that of course last wednesday. if you look at a two-year note for one week it's yields, what you'll notice a couple things, first of all it's pretty aggressi. it looks like it's extending what began on wednesday. but remember the session before the minutes tuesday it settled at 83. it's trading 92. pretty big move. look at a one-week of tens, it's resembling much more the activity in the short end. it's starting to firm up and play a bit of catchup. if you look at the dollar index for one week, it's aggressive. it might not be as volatile, but it's still aggressive. let's open the charts up a little wider, shall we? let's look at march 1st. if you look at the two-year, you can see since may we haven't had these yields. but if you go to the opposite end, the 30-year, you can see the right side of the chart is much less aggressive although today it is leading the ch

rick santelli and the santelli exchange. hey, rick. >> good morning, and thank you.pmi guest, alice andres france. there's only one place to start on this report, isn't there? by the way why does this list look peculiar? i went in order 37.9 is the lowest level, 50 is expansion, contraction all the way to the highest. but inventories is key, why do you think? >> well, rick, this inventories number is the lowest since november 2009. and purchasers don't like it when these levels get into the 30s. it's just too low. the big deal here, rick, is that companies are having trouble getting their needed supplies from their suppliers. and that is directly reflected in your supplier deliveries. it's very long. it very much an expansion at 57.8. the longest since october 2014. we're hearing things like getting production material, it's 25% longer. if you need capital equipment, it's a 10% longer wait. and so as a result you're not getting your needed goods to produce your widgets and so you have to dip into your inventories that you have to fill orders. >> compelling story befo

rick santelli. >> thank you very much, carl. ken rogoff, welcome to the santelli, change. able to feel this but i'm giving you a fist pump right now! you've been on the bully pulpit for years with research with says when death goes up, growth most likely is going to suffer. can you fill us in on where we're at seven years after the crisis. >> when you look at the global debt situation and not just government debt, private debt, pension obligations, there's a big overhang. it's probably a worse problem in europe than it is in the united states. it's a really bad problem in japan. >> the recent mckenzie study has placed an increased amount of debt since the crisis somewhere around $57 trillion, $58 trillion. a lot of that is china. you mentioned japan. japan has so much debt out there. with respect to asia in general, how is this debt ever going to get paid back or does it matter? and is servicing it going to be a problem? rates can't stay low forever, ken. >> well, that's the question, rick. i think a lot of the market thinks rates will stay low forever, we'll never have in

rick santelli in chicago. come back, an exclusive be juniper network ceo ram rami rahim, his take on the state of tech and future for the networking equipment provider. and heard mary say home depot dragging down to the tune of about 77 points. back after a break. ♪ approaching medicare eligibility? you may think you can put off checking out your medicare options until you're sixty-five, but now is a good time to get the ball rolling. keep in mind, medicare only covers about eighty percent of part b medical costs. the rest is up to you. that's where aarp medicare supplement insurance plans insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company come in. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, they could help pay some of what medicare doesn't, saving you in out-of-pocket medical costs. you've learned that taking informed steps along the way really makes a difference later. that's what it means to go long™. call now and request this free decision guide. it's full of information on medicare and the range

thank you, rick santelli. >> and tough day for godaddy, even though the revenue beat the earnings. irving here in an cnbc exclusive. the stocks are meandering a little higher, but don't go away. >>> welcome back to "squawk alley. ""steve liesman out here in the hoover institute in stanford, and jim bowie the fed president making comments in california this morning saying that he is undecided if the fed or the markets have the right path on the rates here. the markets are obviously forecasting almost no tightening where the fed is forecasting a little bit more up to 3.75 in the long run, and the bullard is okay looking at the arguments, if you look at the weak gdpp and the market expectations, the market has it right, but if you look at the tight labor market, and inflation, the fed has it right. so it is important that he is so in between here. and the global influence, and the influences of the weak global e kconomy are waning arod and the effects of the strong dollar are easing, and finally, the q1 weakness is related to something that we have talked about which is easeality. and

rick santelli at the cme in chicago. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl.rection of rates so much that's giving us the best clues. it's which parts of the curve are responding to what stimuli. now, if you look at 10s minus 2s, this yield curve's trade is basically the flattest it's been since december 2007. but you know that. let's look at that same yield curve month-to-date. this is really fascinating because you can see how aggressively it's flattened. indeed we've had some better than expected data, but the problem is if you look at a month-to-date and break out the 2-year, we're basically up 4 basis points same as a 10 but two-week high yield based on closing yields. and that compared to the month-to-date of the 10-year which is just bouncing along the bottom may be creating some kind of a consolidation or some type of a wedge formation. but the point is if the data was really good, even if the fed brought closer to what's reflected in the long and short end, we want long end rates to outrun the short end, steepening the curve. granted the long end's re

rick santelli at the cme group. >> hi jon.body is glued to the tv all day for all of the shows on cnbc and the news leader in business worldwide and why? because today, my guest was yra and we were talking off camera about things that we didn't have time to get, pensions, and retirement, and i missed the cue for the first time in 20 years. so low rate medicinal or toxic? kind of both. so on the day where janet yellen may enlighten us all as to what is ahead in terms of interest rate s by the rates by the central bankerers, and the central bank, it is an issue to bring up. so looking at it on the one hand. on the one hand, low rates are supposedly needed the keynesian approach and the low rates are needed to stimulate the economy but maybe too much of a good thing, and maybe, in a one-lane too long and maybe they have overstayed the welcome, but now we are to the point where the e konconmys have scale, and not just us or a little it, but it is a lot, and growing, whether it is japan, abenomics and i feel bad for jan nell yellen

rick santelli, what are you watching? the fed minutes coming up, we have to watch the trez shy ri market, and the yield curve, and look at the issues of the long and the short end, and talk about the little bit about what is going on in spain. you know the economy that everybody is so proud of and made a big rebound? well, maybe a fly in the ointment. what is it? we will tell you after the break. . >>> coming up on the halftime report why the fed's minutes are critical for the markets which are having a hard time facing what we are calling the new rate reality. and shark kevin o'leary is going the be with with us from "shark tank" to share his new idea. and toni sacconaghi is going to join us as well. >> and garth brooks is going to be returning to the a first concert in new york city in central park since 1997. it is not just new york getting the cold shoulder, because he took 13er years off of music and making a comeback in 2014, and we caught up with the singer announcing the tour and asked him how the industry has cha

first, rick santelli, what are you watching today? >> you know, last week we had week gdp for the first quarter. when we continue to talk about the weak recovery, all roads seem to lead to regulation in dodd-frank. after the break, we talk about the self-inflicted recovery that we have here in the u.s. and for the most part, around the globe. i'm only in my 60's. i've got a nice long life ahead. big plans. so when i found out medicare doesn't pay all my medical expenses, i looked at my options. then i got a medicare supplement insurance plan. [ male announcer ] if you're eligible for medicare, you may know it only covers about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. call now and find out about an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, it helps pick up some of what medicare doesn't pay. and could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. to me, relationships matter. i've been with my doctor for 12 years. now i

our own rick santelli. when we come back, the tech sector is in the recovery mode, but is it helping the valuations of private companies? early snapchat investor is going to answer that in a moment. great time for a shiny floor wax, no? not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. timing's important. comcast business knows that. that's why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. even late at night, or on the weekend, if that's what you need. because you have enough to worry about. i did not see that coming. don't deal with disruptions. get better internet installed on your schedule. comcast business. built for business. enis really built into theat foundation of the company. whole foods market is engaged with pg&e on many levels, to really reduce energy and reduce our environmental footprint. for a customer like whole foods, saving energy means helping our environment, and we can be a part of that. helping customers save energy is a very important part of what

thank you, rick santelli.eanwhile, the dow is in the red, and s&p down to 1096 as well as apple declining. before you invest, investor.gov. because my teeth are yellow. these photos? why don't you use a whitening toothpaste? i'm afraid it's bad for my teeth. try crest 3d white. crest 3d white diamond strong toothpaste and rinse... ...gently whiten... ...and fortify weak spots. use together for 2 times stronger enamel. crest 3d white. >>> the markets lost some ground in the middle of the the session as apple fell below 90 and oil lost all of the gains and then some. the usb floor operations director, and talk about day with politics, central banks and retail and commodities and everything. >> yes, it is all coming together. i think that the market, and the traders were surprised, because yesterday, it looked like the oil/stock relationship had broken or at least stretched a great deal, and today, it is right back in line, and almost iron-clad relationship. it does not look like much heavy selling, but if it sho

rick santelli in chicago. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl.elling you what these option pits in chicago are not only highly peopled, they're pretty darn loud today as everything seems to be readjusting. if you want to be bullish, there's a part of the curve for you. you want to be less bullish, there's another part of the yield curve for you. and finally the dollar's joining the parade. let's look at what's going on. let's look at a march 1st chart of two-year note yields. yes, we're getting close to 86, 85 now. the reason 86 important is you see on that chart that's that little kind of top there, april 26th, i believe, with a close of 86 base points. we're about to blow through that. if you look at the same time period for tens, there's your curve for you. you can see the right side is much less developed in terms of where it is in the high rate barometer. and if i were to go to 30s it would be even more exaggerated. but it isn't only 2s, it's 2s then a little bit of 3s and a little bit of 5s. it's kind of the short end. let's look at 30s min

rick santelli is in chicago for us. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl. we all have been talking at great lengths about corporate supply, makes some sense. just look where yields are and consider who's lucky enough to be able to tap into these markets? well, corporations are. are they putting the money to good use expanding balance sheets? i don't know. look at what the profits were for this quarter. i know they weren't as bad as they could have been, but once again when you grade on a curve that's always just an excuse. look at one-week of tens, sideways. look at one-week of bunds, sideways, maybe we're splitting hairs, look at computerized scaling downward drift all about foreign exchange and today would be the seventh up day if the dollar index was up. doesn't look like it's going to make it. look at one week of dollar index nice progressive run up after some very iffy technical pricing about seven trading sessions ago. look at an april 1st start to the dollar index. now we recall that australia lowered rates. it was a bit of a surprise, and i'm not pi

back to you. >> rick santelli, thanks. appreciate it. now to the blowout home sales number and diana olick live in washington with the pretty big numbers. diana? >> reporter: huge numbers and a big jump in newly built homes up 6.6% for a month to a seasonally adjusted rate to 16,000 units. talk about a beat. sales up 24% from a year ago the highest pace since january of '08 but not just that headline turning heads. the median price of a newly built home sort up 9.7% year over year to the highest reading on record. the last peak was in 2006, and that's a median which means half sold at a higher price and half lower so it may speak more to the shift in buyers, that is, more high-end buyers in the market, especially since builders are basically absent from the starter home market. now you saw that in the big beat by toll brothers today raising expectations for 2016 sales and seeing its already luxury median price head north. the average price in q2 for homes delivered $855,000, up from $17,500 according to the company release. clearly build

let's get to rick santelli in chicago at the cme. >> good morning, carl.a lot less volatility in the foreign exchange markets. the dynamic wasn't necessarily the direction. it was the path in which it took that direction. the foreign exchange is not supposed to act like soy beans, not supposed to act like a kmedity, but it is. and that makes every investor nervous. the lowest form of calibration on the food chain is the local look at one week of tens. boy, these rangers they are compressing but they're compressing back down. testifies this could indeed be the third session that we're not making lower lows comping back to january of 2015. and finally, maybe we don't talk about the jgbs as much as we do the generic notion of negative rates in japan but as the more the talk is, those '04/'05 negative basises turn to turn back down in the double digits, the we're getting awful close. negative interest rates are pretty much negative. and if you look at any of your financial institutions and their profitability, it's integral to economic success. negative rates

carl, back to you. >> appreciate that, rick santelli in chicago. >> and when we come back, you can see the averages are down 1%, and the breadth is no good. the one and only art cashin is going to join us. and tomorrow, we will have leslie moonves tomorrow on "squawk on the street." >>> rough day por for the marke and as we were told here on post 9 ubs is down, and art cashin with us, and you are noting european markets are closed for the moment? >> yes, it is going to give them an opportunity to pull the act together over here, and the bulls need to get off of the lows as i wrote in the morning comments before the opening. it is important that they not close below 2062, and that is going to be changing the momentum somewhat and put the bears back in charge. i think that we didn't hear enough people talking about the weak pmi in china. and that is sending the commodities in a tail spin, and the currencies have been the story of overnight. i mean, the yen around 105, and you have euro up around 1115, and these are dramatic moves -- 115, and these are dramatic moves and they have the mar

rick santelli has the santelli exchange. good morning, rick. >> there's an old joke. i like it. i'm going to tell you this joke, okay. a bear jumps out of the bush, starts chasing two hikers. they boept start running for their lives. one stops to put on his running shoes. one says, you can't outrun the bear. the guy replies, i don't have to outrun the bear, i only have to outrun you. that's the title of my piece today. outrunning the bear. we had the labor secretary on. i get boat loads of e-mails about just about anything. but no more than on the first friday of every month when we have the employment report. today, a lot more e-mails than normal. it wasn't a good report. those that always seem to be able to find a little silver and a lot of straw have very little good to say about it. and it really, i'm not casting aspersions on the labor him, but this is what it is ta we don't have to outrun the bear, but just outrun europe or the recession or outrun japan, but it is not true. grading on the curve, especially the global growth curve, and when you are the united states of amer

let's get to rick santelli. rick? >> auction day. yes, 23 billion of ten year notes found new homes about 7 1/2 minutes ago. the yield at auction, 1.71. that yield is lower than the lowest yield i saw in the one issue market which is probably around 1.72. lower yield, higher price. we give this auction an a. everything about it is stellar. the last time we had a yield at a dutch auction, this low was 12/12/12. it's been a while. we've had some 2.70s, fwhaut is still a stellar amount of demand. 73.5 on indirects. i have a 15 year data base. i couldn't find a higher indirect in this 73.5. 11.8 on directs matches. the 12% ten auction average, 14.7 goes go to primary dealers. this is the first auction, of course, but we'll see two reopenings. stellar auction. corporates are all the range, seems though anything with a decent yield the find a fier, manufacture them. sully, back to you. >> all right. rick, thank you. >>> let's get to our final stock recs of the day, staples and office depots. shares of both are costing investors a lot of mo

before we talk about that, rick santelli, what are you watching today?yla, i am watching the markets, because we had positive data for a change, and the markets took the information to task. we will do some look at the numbers, and a special treat. i will give you my theory of negativity on rates. all after the break. you never want to see "$7.95." [ beep ] but you'll be glad to see it here. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be. if only the signs were as obvious when you trade. fidelity's active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be. >>> coming up on the halftime e report, we will will see how the traderers are navigating the department store destruck shun and whether jim lebenthal is going to stick with jcpenney. and we will talk about the shake shack's breakout. we will have that in about 15 minutes or so. >> thank you, scott. over to is chicago with the s santelli exchange with rick. >> thanks, carl. you nknow, it is reall

joining us an mohamed, dorothy, steven and rick santelli who with's in chicago. dorothy, clearly the market interpretation is that june is more on the table than we earlier thought. do you agree with that? is it? >> clearly we're being guided to be prepared for them. partly because they don't want to surprise the markets so we're beginning to see the fed spokespersons out there beginning to prepare the market for it. don't know that that necessarily means it is coming but it certainly means that if it comes, they don't want it to come unexpectedly. >> mohamed, is there a risk that we start to price it in now? in a way almost making the hike happen and then making it hard for the fed to actually move forward the markets don't do well here between now and the meeting. >> so the fed is torn. it is worried that we have been underestimating the probability of a rate hike and markets are starting to be more realistic in terms of what has happened to the two year treasury that has moved massively over what's happened to the probability. you know the fed is always torn.

rick santelli at the cme in chicago. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl.ou know, i've used this analogy before, but markets are really starting to move here. now, it's the roller coaster effect. we're getting a wild ride on the beginning of intraday type trading, but the realish shup is how it closes. look at a one-week of tens. slipped back under 180, we haven't closed under 180 in two weeks, two weeks ago we were around 178, 179 close. so you want to watch this. and it isn't just us. all fixed income markets have taken a drop in yields and a jump in price. lots affects, of course what we see some rate cutting on the globe. so look at a one-week of bunds. boy, it's hard to tell who's leading, but boy did they shave a quick ten basis points. look at the ten-year gilt in the uk. look at april 1st start to the japanese tenure, the jgb, it traded around minus 4 during the bank of japan meeting, now it's going back negative into the teens. so we really need to pay attention. and all of that of course going on i told you these foreign exchange issues were going

rick santelli in chicago, it's been a busy morning. lei and dudley are object way, rick. >> yes. lei and dudley are on the way. stan fisher, big groan on the floor, didn't go tlment i don't mind. that sometimes surprise is the best way to do this the things right so you don't have a tail of people behind you scratching their heads. deal it with on the fly. it's been a long time. we put out all the warnings. we've sent out the flares. come on. you know, it's all about the dollar index in my opinion. if i showed you fives, threes, sevens, they would look similar to that. but whether you start to expand it a little bit, that's where you learn a lot. so let's go to the march 15th of this year. why? because virtually yesterday put us on a closing yield. we haven't seen that since that mid march point. what i want you to focus on is right around there in april around the 22nd. you had a spike in yields. two years are above that. but as you look at the dollar index, the next chart, very similar formation. also relative to that spike in april. now look what happens when you look at ten y

you saw rick santelli highlight. let's show you the rest of the metal complexes.nes generally speaking. silver is lower by .75%. palladium is lower and platinum is higher by .75%, tyler? >> thank you very much, michelle. barons out with a bold call over the weekend on jcpenney saying that stock could double in the next three years. let's bring back in retail expert and cnbc contributor jan roger nippen and alex berman. gentlemen, welcome back. jan, you like this company that was once as i mentioned a moment ago practically left for dead. why are you positive on it? >> i like what they're doing. i like the fact that marvin is doing retailing 101 as well as anybody can do it. i like the fact that they've got a strong cfo there that is taking care of all the numbers. i think they're going to be able to deleave edelever the company. i think they'll make their numbers. longer term, i have real concerns about the space as everybody does. but in the shorter term, they're in control of their own fate. i think they're controlling that fate pretty darn well. i'm a little co

but rick santelli says monetary policy skews that right now. >> that's right. that's right. that's what we're seeing. again, it was fed comments or comments from the fed. we had the hot data. although much of that was energy prices. >> right. >> and an industrial production number that was a little bit stronger. >> home depot's numbers look good but the stock did not. tomorrow we're going to get lowe's numbers. although, home depot has been the leader in that category. >> more importantly we're going to get the minutes from the fed's last meeting and traders will certainly be focused this. expect to see this kind of volatility until the fed's next meeting because the market keeps bracing for another one. when is it going to happen, when is it going to happen. this will be in the next couple of days. >> thanks, mary. see you later. there we go with a decline of 180, 190 points on the dow. ta tableau ringing the "closing bell" along with morningstar. i'll see you, kel. see you tomorrow. >>> a down session on wall street. the dow giving up 182 points on the bell there, the s&p

and we will be joined by rick santelli and ed lazear in a moment. >>> twitter an square both having after disappointing quarter. square is on track for the worst day since going public down now close to 20%. jack dorsey joined kayla on the "closing bell" yesterday saying that he is trying to stay focused. take a listen. >> we focus on what matters and what matters is actually building the products and the service. again, we want to make sure that we are building something that people value every single day, and we are driving around building a daily you tutility t everyone can benefit from, and that is what we can control, and you know, we are showing it. we are focused and we have it prioritized and we know what comes next and what to do and we know what people love, and we are make it bet ter. >> with us now, an investor who has major holdings in several tech stocks, morris mark, president of the mark asset manageme management. what is your take, and start with square on this quarter, because it seems like a lot of the reaction today which is brutal is based on the difficult credit

. >> let's head to rick santelli now check in at the bond pits at the cme group in chicago. >> good morning, david. what a strange new cycle. a deal on greek debt, again, again, again, again. and it's bullish. as the european markets improve, but is it really greece? i know it seems like all the equity markets are marching to the same song and they are doing a bit better. if it's dead money, i hate to see what the comps are to put it elsewhere at this point in time. let's pick a date. how about march 1st? and let's look at several charts and hold that date steady. let's look at a two-year note yield as they continue to rise. rates on the long end are steady, it's just the short end isn't more aggressive so we're comping back to march. dollar also comping back to march. why do i bring this up? because a lot of this is central bank driven. there was more chatter today on the hawkish side, but is it going to be chicken little? many out there like jim graham think there's a bluff going on. i don't know how many times they can get away with it, but we'll have to see when the june

rick santelli has been talking about all day. two-year yield is up. longer terms are down. that's a slow growth signal. also a signal the market is sniffing out the strong retail sales data along with the good jolt of employment data this week maybe puts the fed back in play. fed speakers have been trying to focus the market on two more fed rate hikes later this year. meantime, the market doesn't feel as though the growth picture is all that strong. maybe that's what we can infer. that's hurting financials. you mentioned, bill, the staples were one of the losing groups today. that's an overbought sector. people have been piling in. i would point out, too, you have walmart in there. walmart is one of the weakest components of the dow. that actually is a quaucy retail play also being dragged down with the other chain retailers. >> even as we're hearing, mike, walmart could be the one to take amazon. do a buildout of its own distribution network and charge people that 49 bucks a year or whatever. >> everybody is back to the whiteboard here on what to do. and it seems as if the

rick santelli's at the cme in chicago. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl.itely slipped as all the meetings came and went, i'm talking central banks. but we are holding the lower end of a range in the u.s. and bund yields are a bit firmer off much lower levels in europe. let's look at intraday of tens. it readjusted rather quickly as we moved into our time zone. one-week of tens shows you that these, you know, low to mid 180s, it's been a while since we had a 170 on the closing basis and that is significant. now, if we really want to look at what's going on bund's one-week chart shows a difference, looks as though some rates overseas are having a relative pushback in a different direction than we were used to from about a year and a half ago. it's about dollar but also sort of all about gold. let's look at a mid 2014 gold chart. look at the pattern. look at how we're about to pop on a closing basis to some of the highest levels going back to that year. now let's look at that same chart relative to the dollar index. notice the similarities. you really want to

we'll get to rick santelli right now in the bond pits of chicago.the ten year yield move up a little bit. >> and the dollar is screaming. >> oh, yeah. you call i had. the dollar, first chart we want to show, the dollar definitely moved from up about six to up about a third or more. so it ripped a bit. and two year note yields coming in were trading up 85, they're up three. the tens are at 1.83. they're up one basis point. now granted, all yields are moving up to areas we haven't seen, the short end much longer time frame. but my first comment is woo-hoo! finally. this is only my opinion. this is the first logical thing i've heard in so long! janet yellen and company, my hat's off you to. the second thing is now they almost have to go. because if they don't go after these comments without some real outliars on the bell curve with data, they'll never have credibility again. this is a wonderful thing. we need to get much more normalized. certainly after all these years, 25 to 50 isn't enough. a plus for the fed. and the markets movement, i think dig ta

rick santelli live on the floor of the cme group. boy, there was a couple of big u-turns along the yield curve today. look at the intraday of two-year note yields, up then down. tens the same way. bunds overseas, boy, did they give itp about the same time. weak data. the markets, can't tell you where they should be priced and the fed's balance sheet and all the securities maybe mix them mispriced and credit spreads and corporates and any given moment they do reflect the reality that was lost, by the way, on this market. look at intraday on the dollar index. dollar index held and moved higher. maybe a five-day gives you a better picture of how stable it's been. it's not looking like this weekday is going to stop the fed. who is right? we'll have to see, and i can tell you this. don't go anywhere "power lunch" will return in two and a half minutes. you pay your car insurance premium like clockwork. month after month. year after year. then one night, you hydroplane into a ditch. yeah... surprise... your insurance company tells you to pa

. >> and now over to rick santelli with the santelli exchange. >> good morning, jon, and i want to welcome in peter, and welcome in. >> thank you, rick. >> on the fly, and everything has been changing. you had a chance to look at the d durable goods order this morning, and definitely popped up and in atlanta gdp now close to 3%, and now that on the web -- popped up, and landed gdp now close to 3%, and now what they said is that there is significant adjustments going back, and benpch marc edchmark , and i don't want to get into the weeds, but looking at the month, it made the rise look dramatically more, and that is the input that is going into the strength of the atlanta's gdp forecast, and numerology aside, because it does not change anything, what is your read on the proxy of business investment, and how sluggish it has been. >> well, that is one of the things that we have had the idea that the low energy would have a drag on the economy more than we saw, and this is the first sign that the data was mischaracterized and not done accurately and we had far less business investment which is

rick santelli, the numbers, please. >> 278,000, joe.g jump last year. a lot of reasons going on. teachers' issues. it's elevated a bit. planting a bit above 250. we didn't come down as quickly as some had thought. continuing claims 2.15 and change. this is realtime. down 1.8. expecting a number around 3%. down 1.8. figures in. if we look towards historics here, down 2.8 was february. that's where we are comping to. last month was minus 1.6. maybe the biggest story or one of the biggest stories is the dollar strength after yesterday. makes perfect sense if the fed putting meetings on the table and, of course, what's going on with all the rest of the markets and demand in corporates and what may go on with pricing in corporates and europe an quantitative easing in that sector. the biggest story people are buzzing about today, japanese. will they raise taxes. is their economy strong enough. more importantly as the article in the journal today points out, how do we get out of everything? that's the notion. they own so much more than other c

steve grasso from stewart frankel at post and rick santelli. ck you come back and look at the trading action, what do you think here? >> you know i think like to think in macro terms. whether it is macy's or a lot of deals that haven't been able to gel, for a variety of relationships, i just think in the macro, the horse we're riding, meaning the u.s. economy s kind of running out of track. if it was an airplane it is running out of runway. we've ridden the fundamentals of the current economy pretty well. wages are stagnant. we're creating skrobs but there is a lot of asterisks there. the growth has been small. the business cycle is so long in the tooth it makes a dinosaur bone look like a small fossil. i do think it is kind of normal. there knees to be a replenishment. maybe nova elections will do that. but is anybody shocked that brick and mortar is finally starting to show the signs of cracks that we've been talking about for many quarters. >> on a day that the u.s. dollars weak and oil is up, is it particularly worrying we're seeing such a b

rick santelli tracking the action. rick? >> you know, michelle, it's been real compact ranges.ouple basis points lower but still within striking distance of a 180. maybe more significant the low yield is made on the weak adp number. if you open this chart up, i'll give you a surprise. munis, if you live in illinois especially, but the muni index is close to challenging the best level since january 1st of 2013. let's look at the dollar index again, shall we? dom was talking about it. look at the one week. this could be the second close, maybe, that we closed without comping back to a further date back in january of 2015. as you see on the next chart, that's very close to where we're trading right now. we have bounced just a little bit. and the last chart, here is a commodity that represents nonfinancials but there is a the love things packaged in commodities. this happens to be soy beans. lots of volatility. still hovering at the best levels since august of last year. michelle? >> got it, rick. thank you. >>> coming up, a double dose of whales. so we're speaking with some of the

have courtly radcliff gibson, peter costa from empire executions joining us from post nine, and rick santelli at the cme. i'm going to start with you, rick. it was the treasury markets and currency markets where we saw a response to janet yellen's comment. the pop of yield happened as well. >> the case isn't to be made whether we traded higher than 92 basis points on 2s or whether we traded closer to 190. the issue is after yesterday's final seven-day note auction, the words seemed to be i hey, maybe those minutes were speeding a little bit and we don't have to worry as much. then you add in the holiday. some markets closed early. and a lot of traders who had the right decision on, they were too thin. but you're exactly right. it was like, boom, we went back to the way we looked earlier in the week. flattening curve on a quick move. 36 to 39 on fives. the 30s hardly moved. the dollar strengthened as well. it isn't how much stocks recover, how much they gave up. they got half back because they've got one fifth the traders trading it. the new news continues to come in. patty rights wonderful ar

kenny, from the big board and rick santelli checking in from chicago. keby, a lot going on. the economic data kind of mixed. the price of oil seemed to be the reason we saw this selloff midday. what do you see going on? what are traders trying to achieve here on the last day of the month? >> all the triggers you say completely impacting but it foals like the end of the month. i think that story knocked it out of the sky. there's going to be a lot of volume in the last couple of seconds as the market closes across a range of stocks and so investors should just realize that. the big volume is not necessarily change in psychology at all. it's really a rebalancing of those indices so it doesn't mean much in terms of investor psyche. >> sure, keith. what are you positioning for? is it higher interest rates? do you still expect the fed to keep moving? >> you know, i do. exhibit them to move rates despite the fact that the data does not seem to support that. so i want to be cautious. you have to look into tech. you have to be making decisions about what you want to keep, what you w

rick santelli covering the action. rick? >> i guess if today's data point is considered a sign for the economy, you have to follow the signs as the adage goes. boy did we do a u-turn. getting down to 170, we're actually up one basis point on the day. but on the week, we're down seven. year to date chart, it's not only that we set the high yields at the beginning of the year, what's more notable is the double bottom in the mid 1.60s, we're getting close to testing that. hey, look at the dollar index today. now if you consider that this week the dollar index is actually up and the last several days, the notion of any type of fed activity for next meeting seems to be nil this is confusing. maybe it's just making up for a big route for most of the beginning of the year. but as you look at this chart hovering close to the worst levels or -- i should say, the extreme since january of 2015, they always ask is gold a currency and economic indicator? i find it so fascinating we're talking about the same period last year we saw the go

let's get a check on the bond market and to rick santelli at the cme. rick?> well, melissa lee, i think we can thank dell today and the combination of data for enlightening us on the market. what do i mean? let's look at the yield curve? intraday two, up two basis points and intraday five up one basis point. tens, down one basis point and 30s down three basis points. that's the numbers on a flattening yield curve. on a day where we saw some. hottest inflation we've seen in years, that doesn't hold water. you know, when mario draghi announced he would be buying corporates. well, what happened? corporates around the world are going to be mispriced. it will start out in europe ant arbitrage will take us around the globe. dell, being fortified five times over and everybody is looking at watch eds and might price any minute is creating this dynamic. the yield curve is flattening. does it mean recession? i don't know. you know what it means to me if you have corp race. you can't keep them in the showroom. melissa lee, back for you. >> roads, bridges, airports, amer

rick santelli is tracking the action. rick? >> when you think you have it all figured out and demands have been real strong for corporates and governors, 30 year bond auction was a huge disappointment. 15 million 30 years are now in new hands. 2.615. yes, it actually tailed. looks like 2.60 was trading and the high yield was 2.1615. the only good development here, indirects were spot on with ten auction average. fwoid cover, 2.19. lightest since april of 2015. 8.8 on direct. lightest since september of 2025 15. dealers take 31 1/2% of the auction. so d plus. d as in dog plus. that is the final supply of the week. and there was a little selling afterwards. you would rather have it rally if you own it. back to you. >> let's bring in robert frank to continue our discussion on politics. you got some new data on who the wealthy are backing this time around? surprising stuff, robert. >> it was surprising this time. hillary clinton, she still has a double digit lead. trump is extending the reach up the wealth ladder. 44% of millionair

chicago where the cubs have the best record in baseball -- he would have told us that anyway, rick santelli would have told us that. steve grasso, it seems to lack conviction today. there seems to be more conviction with this selloff. what's going on? >> if you back to late february, china increased its fiscal deficit to gdp ratio and i think that's what got people to cover their shorts or positioning trade. you had energy, materials, industrials. they all ran. have they run their course now because there's still no signs of real global growth to really sink your teeth into. so i think you're seeing the reverse of that trade come off just a bit, and i do believe that you're going to see lowe r commodity prices. right now they're winded. >> we saw australia cut their rates. sara, you see the markets are under pressure, right? >> absolutely. we've gone from the u.s. is going to raise and other people were going to lower and maybe we were going to pause and the rest would catch up with us. when australia lowered it, it set off foreign exchange issues and there's a concern with the banks trying