in the meantime, let's go to rick santelli for the santelli exchange. >> thanks, carl.a wild day. the dollar seems to be getting on track. i'm not sure that we can make a full prognosis regarding it's future on which time of 100, but markets are moving. when you do markets, you have to do math and technical analysis. fundamentals, whatever gives you that edge. one thing i find that doesn't seem to square, and this is an old topic, but i think it is time to renew it abit. post fed meeting, i still see the rating at .625. rates can take forever, it doesn't equate, and issues are in the eye of the be holder. here we are with issues regarding china, currency manipulator, trade infractions that don't seam to be addressed to the new administrations liking. all of those issues i can understand. there is always two sides to every issue. i have a hard time, take these hundred companies in tech, for example, that don't seem to like the direction of policy, what's at the end of it, the end of it is employment. are we that tight with regard to tech employment. are we into a skill s

"the santelli exchange." rickood morning, carl. well, it's the second day of a two-day fed meeting. we had bob heller on. he thinks feds fund rates ought to be higher, with a three handle. that makes my head dizzy thinking about it. adding 100 basis points for 10%, does that mean 4% or does it mean trend will be inverted and 10s will be where they're at? counterfactual. but the fact is adp data today was better than expected. and of course, everybody copies their neighbor's homework because all the expectations for friday's number have moved up. the point, is look at an intraday chart of 2-year note yields, real sensitive to better data, almost more than i would have thought, but given that it didn't really trade above the range -- we've seen this 1.24-1.25. it's the fact that they did it at all that's important. listen, uncertainty. there's many levels of uncertainty. when i look at the dow, and for better or for worse, it is a barometer to some extent, like the t.a.r.p. vote, about feelings, about feelings about

we'll see you then. >>> let's get over to the cme group, rick santelli with "the santelli exchange," yields and the dollar make a move up here, rick. >> they absolutely do! and that's exactly what we're going to talk about. and as we talk, i want you to look at intraday of our 10-year, really it's a 24-hour chart of the bunds. now, granted, our 10-year's kind of zoom, zoom, zooming a bit, although it's ground that we've covered quite adequately. it's like a well-worn slipper, and bunds doesn't look as aggressive, but definitely up side. the reason i bring it up is, is because other sovereigns in europe, like spanish 10s, italian 10s, french 10s, they're all moving down. and the real issue here is, is that we all think it's rather interesting and it's kind of an interesting game, and i've seen traders do it for decades, to try to relate what's going on in the world and pinpoint exactly what's making various markets move. now, i can't tell you all the channels that are affecting treasuries, but i can tell you a channel that not many are watchi watching they ought to watch, and that's th

fact that, hey, ad revenue is slowing. >>> let's get to the cme group this morning, check in with rick santellinge." hey, rick. >> hi, carl. you know, every now and again i like to kind of catch up with you, the viewers, on what's going on technically in the market, and i always like to preface that technical analysis is as much art, maybe even more art than science. but trying to handicap the repetitive and predictable nature of human behavior as it affects trading has been something that's followed the market since the markets were first created. now, let's look at some historical charts, shall we? one of the key levels that i've been looking at for quite some time is right around that 2.60, 2.61 level. and on the next chart that you see, it comes from a mid-september key high. as a matter of fact, a very key high. you can see it on the far left of the chart there. you also see on the far right of the chart, that's about where we've stopped. now, another level i've mentioned often, and it was my pick in october for settlement for the year of 2016. it didn't work, but at the time it was made,

thank you. >>> let's get to the cme group, rick santelli with "the santelli exchange," as always. , sara. you know, sometimes the smallest things could keep you off the scent of a really good trade, okay? there are several, actually, i can think of off the top of my head -- politics. politics is definitely going to keep you off the scent. sometimes emotions keep you off the scent. you know, i remember when i used to trade. if i had a loser, i could go have lunch, do whatever, because i didn't want to get out, because you didn't really take a loss until you got out. if i had a winner, i couldn't leave! i stayed in the pit or next to the pit. i couldn't leave when i had a winner. those are all really horrible things that happen to you on a break. the difference between a flat line or a market that's tired versus consolidation is huge! huge! okay? and now we have a lot more proof since we've had this conversation. look at a chart. let's look at a chart starting on january 1st, 2015. dow jones industrial average, okay? you see it there, kind of cemented in your brain. i'm going to give

rick santelli, what are you watching? >> i'm watching all the markets.discussions today alone on cnbc regarding the relationship between stocks and bonds. we're going to do a little counseling on that relationship after the break. i'm only in my 60's. i've got a nice long life ahead. big plans. so when i found out medire doesn't pay all my medical expenses, i looked at my options. then i got a medicare supplement insurance plan. [ male announcer ] if you're eligle for micare, you may know it only covers about 80% your part b medicaexpenses. the rest is up to you. call now and find out about an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement insurancens, it helps pick up some of what medicare doesn't pay. and could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. to me, relationships matter. i've been th my doctor for 12 years. w i ow i'll be able to stick with him. [ male announcer ] wi these types oplans, you'll bable tvisit that accepts medicare patients. plus, there are no netwo

rick santelli.n we come back, jeff bezos responding to the "new york post" over that story about robot run supermarkets. we'll talk about that. later on "mad money" don't miss jim's exclusive with ge ceo jeff immelt, 10-year now 2.346, not far from the lows of the year. back in just a minute. it's an important question you ask, but one i think with a simple answer. we have this need to peek over our neighbor's fence. and once we do, we see wonder waiting. every step you take, narrows the influence of narrow minds. bridges continents and brings this world one step closer. so, the question you asked me. what is the key? it's you. everything in one place, so you can travel the world better. ♪ to err is human. to anticipate is lexus. experience the lexus rx with advanced safety standard. experience amazing. i am benedict arnold, the infamous traitor. and i know a thing or two about trading. so i trade with e*trade, where true traders trade on a trademarked trade platform that has all the... get off the

more "squawk on the street" coming up. >>> let's get to rick santelli for the santelli exchange. david. i like to welcome my guest, richard farr. like i always like to do, let's pick up on the last discussion. ed lazear, one of my favorites, carl talking about japan, trying to end their multi-decade kind of blah scenario. my question to you is simple. it's just about ten years for us. i don't know. we're trying tous. we're trying to apply the same medicine that japan has. many we're not quite there, but it certainly seems like that's the direction you're aiming. tell me why i'm wrong. >> well, here is the reason we're not japan. one, we're not an island with limited natural resources and a declining population. we're growing a little less than 1% a year. so at least we have half of the equation right where japan does not right now, but i hear you that -- >> i like your answer. let me ask you, you brought something up that's great. they have to import everything. under the last administration, the epa pretty much made us an island, trying to separate us from our resources, so the n

thanks. >>> let's get to the cme group in the meantime, check in with rick for "the santelli exchange carl, and thank you. of course, we know the january employment report really was a split decision on many levels. if you looked at private payrolls, nonfarm headline payrolls, they weren't bad, but i think the two big issues were that we're bringing more workers into the labor force. the labor participation rate went up. the number of people in the pool that we beamed into the atmosphere that are considered unemployed or marginally attached that shrunk a little bit. that's a really good thing. wage side, whether it was year over year, month over month, that was definitely a bit of a disappointment. maybe the most important issue of all is that when you have a week with a fed meeting and an employment report, i think it made stocks a little nervous, made bond yields touchier to the up side. a lot of this is just because we're over the hurdle. listen, folks, i want to get personal for a minute. i try not to comment about what is in the news all the time, but i have to tell you, i've see

thank god. >> rick santelli, thank you.'s go out to don now for a quick market flash on pandora. >> shares down by 5%. off of the worst levels of the day so far, but coming on the heels of headlines coming out of the earnings call from liberty media. liberty media you may recall was a potential suitor of pandora. there is no wedge between us and sirius. it is not clear, saying the valuation of pandora does not make any sense, it is interesting at the right price, and then the conference call ended. that's why the shares are moving lower. >> don, thank you. still to come here on "squawk alley," we'll reveal the first ever upstart 25. the new up and companying companies less than 25 years old. you do all this research on a perfect car, then smash it into a tree. your insurance company raises your rates. maybe you should've done more research on them. for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to your first accident. and if you do have an accident, our claims centers are available to assis

. >> the story in the bond markets as rick santelli has been talking about is despite strong u.s.ata and despite hawkish tones from fed members, yields have slipped from crossing above 2.5 to 2.37%. that's led by international factors. not so much that the optimism domestically has soured, but yields particularly in germany have gone down because of fears around the election. and in france the opposite direction. german yields have gone down. asia ending on a soft note for the week. hang seng down a half percent, and if we look at europe a little soft yesterday. a little soft today, overall a decent week for continental europe at least, france still just about in positive territory for the week. germany up over 1% still for the week as a whole. ftse 100 is in negative territory for the week. ending this friday on a slightly sour note. >>> let's get to the broader market starting with the energy complex right now. we've got oil prices taking a bit of a breathe their morning. wti crude, that's u.s. oil, is down about a half percent to 54.11. keep in mind we saw u.s. production climb

now to the cme group and rick santelli has "the santelli exchange." rick? >> thanks, jon.all know that policy changes are coming. market hasn't waited. it's already weighed in, maybe in a very large way. so has foreign exchange, and to some extent, so has fixed income. we all know that things like border tax adjustment purr importantedly is going to have a big effect to the up side on the dollar index. is that affecting how speculators are trading it? i'm sure it is. how it turns out? well, nobody really knows. there's some pretty calculated guesses going on, because we have a good complexion, a good landscape politically. but consideri this. let's look at some charts. let's look at the corporate spreads. first, investment grade. one month, one year, five years. and as you look at those, look at how the spreads continue to narrow. if you look at high yield, it's even more dramatic. quite simply, the premiums you're getting for high-quality sovereigns are diminishing and diminishing fast, and the notion of how everything is turning out sector to sector is making some scratc

first, rick santelli, what are you watching?well, i'm watching the dollar index, and i'm working up some charts of it. we all know that foreign exchange going to be at the epicenter of what's going on with trade in so many ways, but it also underscores mario draghi's big issues and quantitative easing and negative rates in europe. all of that after the break. ÷p type dtess t ur numo ureft if u tud? 2 inhibir worowe t d sent s? aduia ft' pn iv owerth jvoks aune tog b b pwe m hp botvoan n, wcayou zzlieaeainoks aune tog otfftseudkieys,otvoan niasnsyou zzlieaeainoks aune tog gh,s stskofof ornanfec sride eosicifatening. opinand u zzlieaeainoks aune tog gh,s stskofof doifanfce sptexperi allgiach , t vo if eve idne te y ca doifanfce sptexperi allgiach , t tis if eve idne tvo wasumay bld 's tngararyoa ca >>> i'm scott wapner. coming up on "the halftime report," why some on wall street are getting more negative about the donald trump presidency and whether investors need to, too. plus, jim cramer's stock picks. and is disney's bob iger r

rick santelli with the "santelli exchange" in chicago. >> good morning, sara. ur, thanks for taking the time, peter. >> thanks for having me, rick. >> if i look at equities, i see the dow up about 3% for the year, the s&p close to 4%, nasdaq up 7%. high yield securities when they come to the market you can't keep them on the shelves. leveraged loans are a hot commodity. and tens held the lower end of a range of 2.30 to 2.60 recently. but here ten years unchanged on the year why is the sovereign fixed income market a bit stuck while other sectors seem to be hot again, peter? >> you know, i think part of it has been what you've seen in europe with concerns about la pen. so you've had european yields remain low, more quantitative easing talked about, excuse me, so i think that's really held in yields here. and there's more concern whether we'll get the growth or not coming out of the u.s. >> all right. i look at stocks it certainly looks as though they've been leading the way. one of the issues on the table is the repatriation and what strings may be attached and w

let's get to rick santelli earlier than usual for "the santelli exchange." oh, early, late, it's all fine with me. let's see, what do we want to talk about? i know what we can talk about today, one of the big threads as of late, very late, is the notion, can stocks survive -- and survive meaning to the up side -- when rates are moving lower, and can they survive supermodels? i'm not talking about the type of supermodel, of course, that's married to the quarterback that won the super bowl. i'm talking more about trading models. and we'll get to all of that in a second. let's take it in order. there have been plenty of times in history where we've seen both correlation and anti or noncorrelated activity between stock market pricing and interest rates. just to take a walk through history, the biggest and one of my most vivid memories being a trader in the fixed income treasury futures and options arena in the '80s was the 1987 crash. we all know how that played out. it was the stock market's down side that ultimately put so much buying in the treasuries as the o

rick santelli at the cme group in chicago. good morning, rick. >> good morning, sara.'s a fascinating day, maybe a more fascinating week. if you're just to look at the day we're virtually unchanged in the two-year, all the other maturities are down three or four basis points. if you were to only look at the week, virtually all maturities are unchanged. look at a 24-hour ten gave up about four basis points. july 8th is a big day if you like treasuries because that was the day of the second bottom in the mid 1.30s, the historic low we built all this upon. so we're going to pick that particular day. and remember politically we're looking at a world that wants less globalization. but it's pretty hard to make the argument that when it comes to financial products, financial assets, boy, it is a one world out there. july 8th, 2016, here's our tens. kind of cement that pattern in your mind granted the yields are different. here we sit around 2.41. let's look at bunds. here they hover around 30. identical pattern. uk, a lot of talk about the uk. their data seems to be going a b

rick santelli, thanks.we come back -- >> can't stop thinking about the schatz, sorry. >> we'll get fresh comments from the president today speaking to a pretty friendly audience at cpac this morning. when that begins of course we'll take it live. later on roger penske. back in just a moment. this car is traveling over 200 miles per hour. to win, every millisecond matters. both on the track and thousands of miles away. with the help of at&t, red bull racing can share critical information about every inch of the car from virtually anywhere. brakes are getting warm. confirmed, daniel you need to cool your brakes. understood, brake bias back 2 clicks. giving them the agility to have speed & precision. because no one knows & like at&t. uh, yeah. what is?r, larry. the whole wheelie thing. what do you mean? i just got this baby to get around the plant floor. right, but now ge technology monitors every machine. yeah, it brings massive amounts of information right to you. so you don't need that. well, it makes me lo

let's get to rick santelli and get "the santelli exchange" at the cme. rick? >> thanks, carl.e to rem my guest, rob nichols. rob, thanks for taking the time today. >> rick, thanks for including me! i'm excited to be here. >> all right, listen, you know, many might not know that the federal reserve is owned by private investors, and those private investors are in the form of banks, and they get shares, they can never sell them. but there is a dividend that's been associated with them for over 100 years, 6% dividend. but that all changed. it's a weird story with transportation and all the changes kicked in january 1st of this year. tell us about it and tell us what you think about it. >> well, rick, i'll tell you. so, about a year ago, congress, to pay for roads and bridges -- and mind you, infrastructure's very important in the united states, we need to improve it, so we're not anti-infrastructure -- but they took, rick, $17 billion from 72 banks in the united states of america in the form of that big haircut to pay for roads and bridges in the form of the fast act about one ye

he oing sharthshsh s n >>> it is time to get to rick santelli for the "santelli exchange." thank you, david. and aloha charles biederman, thank you for taking the time. very early in honolulu. >> aloha to you and everybody else. >> let's start logistically, why don't you describe what flows you've seen in equities before, during and after the election, charles. >> well, before the election no flows, after the election record inflow over $100 billion went into u.s. equity etfs. since the inauguration though we've seen flows really slow dramatically. we've not seen much new money going into u.s. equity. there has been a lot of money going into global equity chasing returns there. but u.s. flows have slowed. >> all right. when it comes to corporates it's a bit of a two-way street. on one side you have just the buying side. on the other you have the issuance. why don't you touch on those, charles. >> well, for the last two years we've seen a slowdown of new stock buyback announcements. and that slowdown has been dramatic this earnings season. this is the slowest earnings season

sara, back to you. >> all right, rick santelli. nk you. >>> let's send it out now to jon fortt, who's on the floor with a look at what's coming up next on "squawk alley." good morning, jon. >> good morning, sara. some companies, including in tech, are drafting an open letter to trump about that executive order. we'll dig into what it says. plus, facebook earnings to cover and the president of the united steelworkers union. all that and more coming up. s lw bo otrsawi hulcihaformioev f bewse&t&t iogthtoetiarnf daniel s lw y nemo alorse tedy mpto of h.cturis. do n tal ra enenonass y us u r cthaur.lcex.to lnjget mecalp a suases r siononle reaiostopcials anlp r rinrrm retur enenoe y aftt me? r cthaur.lcex.to lnjget mecalp a ves pgi ta lterm vinectiwi rige htro >>> with the super bowl only three kays away, how's the nfl been answering questions about its ratings decline this season? our own jane wells has more from houston. good morning, jane. >> reporter: hi, sara. yeah, we were just talking to some falcons players, which is why i'm her

let's get to rick santelli check in on the bond pits in chicago. d morning again, rick. >> good morning. so whether you're looking at the dollar index, treasury rates, pretty much all rates, equity markets, inflation, it's zoom, zoom, zoom, zoom. look at an intraday of tens. you could clearly see what happened at 8:30 when we had the data hit, especially the cpi hotter than expected. if you look at a two-day, you know, yesterday we had ppi, but that wasn't that spike. that spike was at 10:00 eastern on janet yellen. let's look at november 1 st for all the charts. ten minus bunds. i told you this chart tells you the direction of the curve. it started moving up and so did tens you see on the next chart and the dollar index. tens are now up five sessions in a row. as david pointed out the 11th session up for the dollar index. one week of the dollar index clearly shows you it is ramping up. to put it in perspective, we've gone from just under 100 to 101.5 in 11 days, basically a penny and a half in 11 days. one other thing to point out you want to pay a

let's send it to the bond pits and check in with rick santelli in chicago. rick. >> hi, kelly. you're absolutely right. only six points away, of course. three points away. two points away. how exciting. look at a 24-hour chart of tenure. you can see that there is a bit of a drift. up 3% or 10s and 30s. a curve steepening today. the tens, virtually unchanged. closed around 244.5. close to where we're trading. one week of bound, they've reserved a bit. up a bit in terms of yield. let's look at the other european sovereigns, shall we? especially with all the news going on, whether it is triggering article 50 in the uk or la pen in france. you see the gilt, a little lower on the year. france, a little up. the dollar index, yes, it is down on the year but it's taken and overtaken the 101 handle as it sits between 101 and 102. 20,703. carl, back to you. >> all right, rick. thank you very much. rick santelli. on that note, the rally is continuing. u.s. markets with new records across the board. dow, nasdaq and s&p up 4% since inauguration day a month ago. let's bri

let's get to rick santelli in chicago. got a very special guest. k. >> good morning and thank you, carl. yes, we do have an important guest in so many ways, chairman jeb hensarling, chairman of the financial -- house financial services committee. chairman, thank you for taking the time. i know how busy your schedule has been. >> happy to do it, rick. >> all right. listen, you were in the big chair yesterday listening to all the questions and the second day what used to be referred to as humphrey hawkins, i want to put a little primer on this, we're going into seventh, eighth year where rates are pretty darn low. there was a time early on when the fed was almost begging the government to get involved with some fiscal horsepower hence i see markets have moved dramatically to the upside, stock market doesn't necessarily need the fed to hold it up on helium, there seems to be underpinnings of investors like, i ask you, chairman, you were there yesterday. is there any observations you would like to share with us especially considering all the questions o

. >>> let's check in with rick santelli, as well, at the cme group in chicago. , rick. >> good morning, carl. i know everybody is thinking about janet yellen. when i looked at today's ppi, it is amazing to me how low rates are. we did see the year-over-year ppis didn't really reflect any significant move to the upside. but the headline move of up 0.6 was the biggest month over month headline change in ppi since september of 2012. did it have an affect on the markets, which is all that matters? no. the longest maturity should be the most sensitive to inflation. it jumped a little itty-bitty bit, like a half basis point to 3.04%. drifted a bit. all maturities are unchanged. the middle of the curves, fives and tens down a basis point. you have the doe up a littw up over 3%. the s&p, little over 4%. down one basis point on the year. if you look at one week of tens, the bias is up to the mid 2.40s. maybe the formation has changed a bit. let's turn to foreign exchange. remember, we've been talking about net change. dollar index right now, 100.90. it is close for the ye

rick santelli's at the cme group in chicago. rick. >> good morning, david.verybody likes to look at the economical dar every morning. smart thing to do. along with tuning in to cnbc. today we see the fed minutes to the last meeting. i know that they're probably going to be somewhat important, but i'll tell you, you want to know important, here's the next chart. look at a two-day of the euro two-year. yes, you're not reading it wrong. minus 90 basis points. maybe a little bit of a repost squeeze going on. let's look at a broader chart. let's look at a one-year maturity. wow, it's like falling off a cliff. no matter how you slice it, we all remember there was a relative value trade when the bunds were doing their beeline, the ten-year maturity down towards zero and we saw how it affected our market. now, maybe it's not affecting it as much. you can look at a one-week of bunds there. it's definitely dropped from 35, 36, 37 over a week down to 25. but really the trade you want to pay most attention to may be euro tens minus euro twos now hovering and getting clo

let's get over to rick santelli now check in on the bond pits and what's going on at the cme group incago. take it away, rick. >> thank you, david. you know, it's peter boockvar, friend of cnbc, pointed out today and it seems to really underscore the pervasive view on the number. headline looked pretty good. people were excited. labor force participation rate moved higher even though it pushed the real unemployment rate higher because people are coming into the workforce again. and that was something that seemed to be a conventional wisdom that group of 94 million people weren't going to be a pool of potential labor. but it seems that maybe that needs some reconsideration. on the week twos right now are down four basis points. fives are down seven. tens are down four. interesting that 30s are actually up a basis point on the week. look at an intraday of twos, tens, dollar and bund yields, you can see they all responded exactly the same. they gave up some ground. you know, there's another thing about big numbers at trading floor especially week of fed meetings said they call it the hur

. >> rick santelli is checking the action at the cme. rick? >> tens pretty much says it all.e moved up. last couple of hours have been sideways. on the week we're down six. year to date of tens, down three from where we closed. sometimes if you want to take the temperature of fixed income market, look at high yields. we could look at year to date of the hyg or the actual spreads. etf perspective, the price is firm, steady, not a lot of volatility. spreads are narrowing and rather large considering where they've been. the temperature seems okay. steady as she goes pretty much in the middle of the 2017 range. melissa lee, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you. >>> japan's prime minister visiting the white house today and will spend the weekend with the president in florida. is japan a good investment for your money right now or are there better opportunities in asia? trading nation is up next. the future of business in new york state is already in motion. companies across the state are growing the economy, with the help of the lowest taxes in decades, a talented workforce, a

we'll get to the santelli exchange. rick? >> let's stick with that notion. the president, of course, when he brought up caterpillar brought up foreign exchange, the dollar in particular talked about how a stronger currency has some disadvantages, especially if you're a multinational. the problem is that -- let's go to the board. you know, this president, no president, nobody has a dollar dial. let's go weak, let's go strong. a level plays field implies a bit of manipulation. some would call it policy. it depends. there's two sides of every coin we always talk about certain entities manipulating currencies, but others are affected by policy. i don't know, i see a lot of gray there. i have to be frank. when you're talking level playing field, or when the fed talks about the dollar and it's actions, these are important, because there's so much great here. in the end it's not going to be easy. even thousand the dollar figures, should there be a tax, i know the treasure remember secretary maybe dialed it back a bit, and i think that's okay. he's not sitting down

rick santelli is all over it in the pits. rick? >> tyler, don't you just love auction days?econd leg of our 8 billion in supply this one 34 billion five-yield notes. 1 1.937. the bid issue was 1.93. higher yield, lower price. you never want a lower price when you're auctioning something off, even a dutch auction. we gave this a d, as in dog, plus everything was weak on it. but not huge. just a little bit. 2.29. 58.2 indirects. both of those were the softest since july of 2016. but one good bright spot, direct bidder, 8.4%, the best since may 2016. 3.3%. d plus. tomorrow, of course, will be the last of it with seven-year notes. brian, tyler, michelle, the whole gang, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much. >>> on deck, forget fang. why power lunch's own g.u.m.p. trade is making headlines. one industry in particular feeling the pressure. that story and much more, still ahead. >>> lieutenant dan did take care of my bubba gump money. he got me invested in some kind of fruit company. so then i got a call from them saying we don't have to worry about money no more. and i said t

rick santelli's got that. rick. >> yes, let's start with the older data first. construction spending was down 0.2. mirror image of the up 0.2 we were expecting. we had minus 0.2 in september last year, you have to go to april to find a worse number. of course january is the read on ism. and it's a good one. we were looking for 55, we ended up with 56. 56, the best level since november of 2014. going a ways back. let's look through the internals, shall we? prices paid jumped up to 69 to 65.5. new orders 64.4 to 60.3, subtle change but to the upside. and 60.1 on the employment index following a slightly revised 50.8. and in light of today's adp that somewhat makes sense. sara, back to you. >>> rick, thank you. stocks this morning are higher holding gains here. dow's up 84. just a few hours left until the fed's first policy announcement since president trump took office. let's bring in steve liesman, cnbc senior economics reporter and brian jacobsen. steve, first to you on the manufacturing numbers, very strong and corresponds with what we saw in the adp report, an

more "squawk on the street" coming up. >>> let's get out to rick santelli.d morning, rick. >> good morning, thank you, i would like to welcome andy rothman. thank you for taking the time to talk china today. >> good morning, rick. >> we had data out, i believe chinese reserves fell under $3 trillion for the first time since winter of 2011. january in particular was down over $12 billion to bring it to 2.998 or just below. first of all, is it soley -- are we going to look at bigger numbers down the road? >> i think the reserve number will continue to fall. it fell last year and the year before, but it's not really an important number. the point is not to have the most possible reserves, it's to have enough, china only needs about two trillion, japan needs about one trillion. >> so the activity behind the number, i could agree with that, so the activity behind the number is a key top take is retweaking global trade. how does the reserves in this case, the amount, not important or the action, how will china deal with the trump administration. >> i don't think d

rick santelli on a friday at the cme. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl. a very strange week if you're trading any of the fixed income markets, sovereigns, trading spreads. lots of action between french, italian, spanish, portuguese paper against the bund. the bund has a relationship as the high quality sovereign of europe and how it trades on the u.s. side against the tens. all that seems to be slowing down a bit. so if you look at the week, it's been a flattening week. that's what you walk away with. on the week we have twos down only one, tens down five, 30s down six. but on the day we have twos up one, tens up two and 30s up three. so all of this seems to be reversing a bit. a two-day of tens you could clearly see we really came out of here to the upside back into the well worn range basically one basis point away from unchanged on the year. look at a two-day bunds. of course it isn't the same type of intensity, but it is moving back up in yield. but maybe the most important chart, let's look at a november start to tens minus bunds. when it's really hu

that's what they'll continue to do. >> rick santelli. reaction from the bond pits to the fed statement and to some of what steve just said on what was actually driving the market. a lot more on fiscal policy. >> well, you know, let's start with steve grasso's comment. the market sitting waiting to be sold, waiting for facts. yeah. real and imagined, everything but the kitchen sink has been thrown at these policies. with regard to steve's comments, first of all, we went from 121 early to 124 and back down to 121. we had a three basis-point plunge. i think this fed has raised cautiousness to a level of world series magnitude. any of you tv buffs out there remember the first bob newhart show? janet yellen is the psychologist the way i see it. behind the two-way mirror, the fomc members and the market laying on the couch. this is their approach to central banking. making sure the market is ready, feeling it. i tell you what, when it actually happens they'll find none of this diminished the intensity of how the market will react. the market h

. >> we have david katz from matrix asset advisors and steve grasso and rick santelli out at the cme. steve, let me start with you. this is really the mildest perhaps of pull backs you can have after a streak like we've had to the up side, seven straight days. all these records. really the market sat still during the trump press conference so maybe it wasn't drawing a lot of detail from that, but where do you think we're at in terms of the need for any other give back after this rally? >> you know, mike, tremendous amount of funds have been sitting on their hands trying to wait for that pull back. you and i have discussed it. you don't really get that pull back. it's bought really quickly. it's a testament to me of how under weight firms were in the financials, in energy, in materials, in industrials. you look on a daily basis you see the leaders on a daily basis have been the financials. they take a couple of days off here and there. the market as a whole grinds higher and i think that's what it will continue to do. >> steve, to follow up quickly, at some point they're going o own en

go down to rick santelli. what do the bond markets think of this?our 15 year mortgage with a 30 year mortgage. you're still in debt. >> you know, brianings you bring up a great point. i used that analogy today. a longer term debt may affect both benefits just more than a rate mortgage, to get the adjust mblees in the fixed repor, what's servicing the debt? if five, ten years, if you lock in 4%, and that's 6-7%, that becomes higher than 4%, then all the sudden, you look golden. there's a trade, but the heard the notion forever down here. yes, it's a good idea. why? good paper is collateral, there's a shortage of it because central banks hold the best sovereign securities. think about mutual funds, insurance companies, but it is not a panacea. it's still debt. so one thing i want to point out, though, many said, oh, my god, the curve steepened today. that's a hard conclusion to draw. i have proof. a 40-year bond in the u.k., hst yielding an active trade at 173. the chart, the 30-year is 188. there's a price premium on the 40 year, probably due to aspe

. >> that's the important point. 2.3 to 2.6 is the range rick santelli has been talking about.is somewhat amazing that we have rate hike expectations jumping to 50% now. >> a little bit more than 50% for march. >> yet yields have slipped. german yields, global yields are lower. but this hawkishness has not manifested itself in the bond yields. ten-year yields slipping a bit is something to watch, especially with the interview with mr. kaplan. >> a voting member of the fed. i would say it's further proof that the fiscal policy is driving the action around the globe. politics and policy. we'll see. we won't get a reaction to president trump's speech, it's tonight. we'll see how the market reacts tomorrow morning. if there's more scope or clarity about taxes, he will speak about infrastructure, we know that. and deregulation, all of that is something investors are tuning in for. >> as for the u.s. dollar t does bounce higher yesterday. the president said he wants to spend big on infrastructure, also spend big on the military. that helped the dollar a bit. the euro is bouncing. 1.

rick santelli and eamon javers in washington. dow is down 34 in all of this.k in just a minute. alal.its)? vae pitah,t thama alal.its)? >>> we are awaiting executives from harley davidson, the iconic american motorcycle company to arrive at the white house. ceo matthew will he vattich and other leaders meeting with the president and members of his staff. that's expected to take place at noon eastern. it was originally scheduled for 1:00. shares of harley were down earlier in the week after softer than expected earnings. but it will be interesting to see what comes out of this meeting. >> stocks up 44% in 12 months versus s&p 19. interesting, i thought. last night, company tweets hash tag united we roll. and says america has never faced a problem americans couldn't fix by looking each other in the eye, shaking hands and firmly resolving to hammer out a solid solution. we'll see if that's the tune they take today. >> that's optimistic. we have also got amazon earnings after the bell, which we will be watching after facebook did well and apple, as well the day be

rick santelli maintains that the key range is 2.3 to 2.6.e went above 2.5 we're not breaking out but we are higher than a week ago. oil prices, let's check in on those. they were higher a little bit yesterday albeit energy managing to turn a negative performance in the s&p sector wise. oil prices were up by half a percent. they're soft by half a percent. $53 in wti. dollar board we saw yields move higher following the slightly hawkish term. it wasn't too high to derail what was otherwise a risk on sentiment day. the dollar gained about 1/4 of a percent. it's on pace for its fourth positive session in a row and what would be its second positive week in a row. it broke a four week losing streak. today higher by 1/3 of 1% against the euro, the yen and the pound. finally gold prices were basically flat yesterday and today. the gold price standing at 1226, up .1 of a percent. >> just by a dollar. today is the busiest day of the week for the economic data. retail sales and cpi out followed by industrial production out at 9:15 and at 10:00 a.m. yel

either way, as rick santelli points out, the important range is 2.3 to 2.6. yesterday's loss, we were within that range. until we break one of those two levels, he feels we're range-bound. perhaps janet yellen can move it i doubt that much over the course of today. >> rising yields from the lows that we saw last year, a big factor that has helped the financials outperform, a big part of the rally we've seen on wall street. look at the dollar. that, of course, could be in focus today for janet yellen, the fed as well. the impact that could have on earnings and growth. that has been a concern for a lot of these multinationals that do business overseas. the euro trading at 1.06 against the dollar. so it's stronger. the dollar lower against the yen. the nikkei closing down by 1%. gold, lastly, under a bit of pressure over the past couple of days. today showing resilience. up by $5. >>> sterling has fallen on that surprise inflation miss. we did get that data. inflation came in at 1.8% year on year versus 1.9%. broadly speaking, that number is still showing that i

>>> we cannot finish the hour without checking in with rick santelli for the santelli exchange.ollar/yen just dropped below 112. >> i would continue to monster effects closely. bonds are giving us a different message than the equity markets. i'm not sure i buy into that. i think currency is the way you protect against the wrong message, meaning that interest rates overseas negative rates are creating buying opportunities in treasuries. and i think that especially looking at how negative rates are in europe, if the euro cok. hold up as good as it has, that's your tell. until you'euro starts to do a c undoor 104 i'm not sure that our rates respond to the upside the way the equities have been trading. back to you. >> all right, rick, thank you very much. as far as the intraday range here, 67 points but a friend says it feels like 10 as we wait to see what the president will say tomorrow night. >> you've got stock movers like materials and the infrastructure plays. energy doing quite well. >>> let's get over to headquarters and "the half." >> guys, thanks. welcome to the "halftime r

and our own rick santelli. rick, why are yields falling? >> part of the issue is what's going on in europe, whether it's politically driven with regard to votes coming up that could cause more splintering in the european union or generically some of the issues of italian banks and greece. i think it's the relative value trade just in slow motion. let's do keep in mind, we are ten basis points down on where we settled 2016 and we're six weeks into the year. yes, it's a downward direction. with regard to how that play play forward, i also want to stress that, if you look at every fed meeting, there always seems to be a buildup going in and a fall-off going out, this being no exception. and as far as who it's good for and who it isn't good for, generically saying dropping interest rates are not good for banks, i beg to differ. too big to fail banks did pretty well at a time where interest rates were pressured lower. however, we did see that today's softening had a big bias towards a flattening curve, arguably not as as friendly as a more steep

we want to go to rick santelli standing by at the cme in chicago with the numbers. rick?e go. our last week look was 239. that moves to 238. you add six. you're up to 244,000, which is the current claims number for this week. if we look at the continuing claims, it moved from 2.077, we'll call it just shy of 2.08 million, down to 2.06 million right on the nose. of course, when we look at the headline number, we've been in the 2.30s. i'm not sure up 6,000 makes a world of difference. boy, what a great interview this morning by becky and the entire team. i'm sure we're all going to have plenty to talk about, whether it's the dollar or interest rates or b.a.t. tax. one thing is for sure, investors, they seem to be pretty comfortable, at least thus far. back to you. >> okay. thank you for that, rick. back to this morning's news making interview with treasury secretary steven mnuchin. dom chu taking a look at wall street's reaction this morning. >> so andrew, we did see a little bit of movement after the 7:00 hour and what happened with the dollar and with gold prices, two of

rick santelli has the details, rick? >> reporter: absolutely, an as risk on all complements. moved up long before anything was spoken by anybody. there was a bias much different yesterday, and that actually was good for this auction. a concession that means you like to see the price go down when you buy something. think about all nose president's day sales. today, $15 billion, first time 30 year bonds put forth and yield at dutch onyx, where it was trading for 15 minutes before they buttoned up at 1:00 p.m. eastern. agreed, c-minus. priced where it was supposed to. nothing more or less. a bit light. 28.9% go to primary dealers, and 62 billion in supply, now under new ownership. wilfred, back to you. >> thank you very much, rick, for that. stimahead on "power lunch," big changes donald trumpments to see following the meeting with airline executives, and some snow day trivia. can you name the spot that typically averages a 1% gain the day after a major snowstorm hits new york? >> can i guess? >> the answer when "power lunch" returns. it's a great answer. mpiesshe inthy, hof t t

but first, rick santelli at cme for today's bond report. hi, rick. >> hey, fed day.e'll be getting into that shortly. intra-day, stronger adp. up two basis points. 1.275 for mid december. highest close since 2009. let look at 2009. now let look at the ten-year, underperforming a bit, wouldn't you think? look at the dollar index. that's the one that's really big time overperforming. can't wait to see what the fed does. "power lunch" will return in two minutes. runs on intel? that ride share? you actually rode here on the cloud. did not feel like a cloud... that driverless car? i have seen it all. intel's driving...the future! traffic lights, street lamps. business runs on the cloud... and the cloud runs on intel. ♪ i wonder what the other 2% runs on...(car horn) >>> sean spicer holding the daily press briefing right now. of course if there's any news breaking that pertains to cnbc and trusted and valued audience, we will bring that to you. meantime, let's get back to business. the latest crash test ratings are out. they are not good news for two luxury automakers. phi

. >> speaking of trading, rick santelli is on the trading floor with the bond report. rick? >> it seems to be a lot about doctrine. the last president's foreign policy doctrine, i'm interested in the new president's. the doctrine is always embedded in the charts. look at the the tens. range from unemployment friday to today, all of it seems to be to the downside. let's see if we hold these low 2.40s. let's pick december 1st. our second tightening on december 14th. that really defined the fed. and potential fed doctrine. we look, we can see a high was established right there on the left when the fed tightened. the panel doesn'tthe euro. it established a low there and the chart looks pretty good. on bunds, they are really testing the same area after the fed tightened and finally the equity markets. if there's one thing we can all agree on here, at december 1st, which reflects the tightening also seems to show a market that seems to like the market of not only the last fed meeting but the last labor statistic as well. back to you. >> got it, rick. thanks. >>> four big stock cal

and rick santelli in chicago. david, so what do you make of yellin's remarks today. >> probably the right medicine, that the fed needs to raise interest rates and inflation rates are 2%. unemployment rate is closer to full employment, and the fed has been in monetary overdrive for the last several years and they need to be mindful of keeping inflation rates low, at 2% inflation, that's good for stocks. simply put, when inflation goes to 3 1/2% or higher, it becomes very problematic for stocks. >> rick, we've seen reaction in the bull markets today to that slightly hawkish tone, quite a marks move for example in the 10 year since the lows have lost, i think we ran 2.34%. are we breaking out on the upside today with the extra move? >> i think there's been a bias to the upside, but you're exactly correct. 2017's range is 230 to 260, we did hold the lower band. which means my opinion will probably gravitate toward the upper band, but remember, 244 was what we said last year, we're not much above it, i do see higher ra

first to rick santelli at the cme for the bond report. hi, rick. >> hi.d, rates moving higher. they're not breaking any records getting there. intraday of tens, pretty much sideways up two basis points on the entire curve. year to date, you could see we sit virtually unchanged. let's look at an etf, hyg, at the best level since july 2015. here is what happens when you keep that date the same and switch to investment grade. spreads have narrowed on both sets according to barclays. with yield differentiation going on, it seems it's just a yield enhancement for investors. "power lunch" will return after this break. this car is traveling over 200 miles per hour. to win, every millisecond matters. both on the track and thousands of miles away. with the help of at&t, red bull racing can share critical information about every inch of the car from virtually anywhere. brakes are getting warm. confirmed, daniel you need to cool your brakes. understood, brake bias back 2 clicks. giving them the agility to have speed & precision. because no one knows & like at&t. i a

. >>> first to rick santelli at the cme for today's bond report. hey, rick. >> hi, melissa lee. a lot of action with regard to breaking out of the range. there's a good amount of volatility. tens, we are drifting. open the chart up to the beginning of november, you can see for the most part sideways, lower end of the 230, 260. 2017 range. the dollar index up, really it's not much different. steady as she goes, despite the big negative rate swapping that's been going on, on the euro curve and it seems to be withstanding it. with all these prices calm and equities flying hyg etf are making the highest level trades since july 2015. don't change that channel. "power lunch" will return in two minutes. sir! there's been a breach. we need your password so we can lock down the system. my password? yes, sir, we need your password. the password that i use? yes, sir, your password. there's been another breach! sir! right. okay. i-h-a... ...t-e-m-y-j-o-b-1. ihatemyjob1? wanna get away? now you can with southwest fares as low as 59 dollars one-way. yes to low fares with nothing to hide. that

rick santelli, how eager were investors to lend it to them, rick?> you know, they were kind of eager. they could have been more eager. this is the first of 62 billion in supply kicking it it off at 24 billion in 3-year notes. the auction grade i gave it 1:00 eastern, c-plus. charlie plus. the metrics all about average. yield at the dutch auction, 1.423. might have been the best news on the auction considering that was a smidge below the offer side of the one issue market. 2.78 to cover. 57.2 on indirection. best since may of 16. primary dealers take 34.7% of the auction. so c-plus. tomorrow will bring us 23 billion in 10-year notes. melissa lee, back to you. >> thank you. >>> underarmour shares under pressure. the stock down 50% in a year. ceo defending the stock a short time ago. we're digging in ahead. >>> barack obama getting for aly. the former president like you never seen him before. "power lunch" is back if two. ♪ we're drowning in information. where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances, your futur

rick santelli is tracking all the action on the cme. rick. >> when you look at my charts, we've had a couple of data points today. durable goods. headline was okay. intrinsic, internals were weak, revisions were weak. having said that, intra-day of twos, up 6 basis points, tens, up about five basis points. intra-day of the dollar index isn't even up. it's down. fed fund futures may be the culprit. march contract doesn't trade all that much. intra-day or one week won't show you a lot. i will tell you it's closed right around 99.30 1/2. it's down two whopping points. those two whopping points have made a difference in percentages as poe tepgsly if you just looked at this, the possibility basically is 50/50 on a tightening at the next fed meeting. what is in traders brains to cause that, i don't know. i will tell you this. it's something to pay attention to. because we're in this quasi world where the fed probably isn't going to tighten unless it thinks the market is expecting it. so the loop goes on. michelle, back to you. >> and on and on