anyway, see you in 15 minutes time to the cme and rick santelli has the santelli exchange. elly. it certainly seems as though the final curtain is fall iing on monetary policy. i don't think any of its creators are those continuing to orchestrate and the ongoing process of quantitative easing, bank of japan, ecb and to some extent on our rolloff the u.s. federal reserve. i don't think any of those people would have expected that 2018, and we still have a fed. granted, they've bought less but still, what, 4.4 and change trillion in balance sheet. yesterday we learned their balance sheet shrunk by 18, 19 billion. sounds like a lot until you think 4.5 trillion with a "t." every person on this trading floor i talked to seems to be taking a position in options, whether they own both puts and calls on the long side or they are selling, being short to premium. no matter how you slice it, every trader thinks that mario draghi on thursday will be the definitive central bank meeting because it's going to be up to him, now that the cat's out of the bag. we all expected -- they've alrea

and the santelli exchange. rickcarl. you know, investors making a profit is pretty high a priority politics is important to everybody. we can tell because everything is so political. but investors seem to always find that magic place where they can be cognizant of what's going on in politics and even have veg opinions but when it comes to their investments, they need to kind of clip away all of the peripheral issues and concentrate on the reality they can touch, not the possibilities they can't i think trade figures prominently in that. before we can get into that discussion let's look at the facts that we do know. the ecb has some statistics i find interesting if you look at goods and services with respect to its relationship to gdp, the eurozone, about 27% of their gdp is goods and services. if you look at china it's about 21% goods and services you look at the u.s., it's about 12% with respect to the interdependency issues so, obviously, we have a higher tolerance for pain just look at the generics we've been say

rick santelli. >>> as we go to break take a look at lululemon, record high surging on this beat prettyr the coming quarters and that does snap a four-day losing streak. "squawk alley" is back in a moment it's really not very important. i was in the stone ages as much as technology wise. and i would say i had nothing. you become a school teacher for one reason, you love kids. and so you don't have the same tools, you don't always believe you have the same... outcomes achievable for yourself. when we got the tablets, it changed everything. by giving them that technology and then marrying it with a curriculum that's designed to have technology at the heart of it, we are really changing the way that students learn. and i can't wait for ten years from now when i get to talk to them again and see, like, who they are. ♪ >>> make sure you join us monday morning, 9:00, for "squawk on the street" with stooes easterbrook, the ceo of mcdonald's as we talk about the future of the company, technology, wages, commodities and quick rvseice in general dow up nearly 200 points back in a moment welcome t

rick santelli at the cm nenk chicago. good morning, rick >> good morning, carl. we have, at lease at this point in the session, a parallel shift in the curve maturities are down basically a couple of basis points, that after, of course, we are holding on a flat curve. yoknow, the 10s minus 2s hovering just above 240 basis points these are levels we haven't seen since the fall of 2007 now, if you look at a two-day of 10s, you know, yesterday we popped a mid today we gave a lot of it back but that isn't the point the point is, as you look at this may 1st chart, that we held the gains that we had, the sell-off that occurred after the solid jobs report friday, and we continue to hold here's something interesting on that chart you're looking at if you look at the high-yield close and the low-yield close, the midpoint $2.95s about where we failed yesterday. that's not lost on floor traders. many are using that as a intraday pivot looking at a two-year chart of bund yields, they're down four basis points today, down at 38 guess why. well, it's not like it was a week and

. >> thank you >>> rick santelli in chicago good morning, rick >> reporter: good morning.couple of basis points but everybody has been talking about the year over year inflation number 2.8. that is the highest level since february of 2012 and we'll pay close attention to that the market did when that number was released pop a little bit. but hasn't moved all that much all though as you look at the two-day chart it's firm. it's trading both yesterday's yields if you open the chart up to the beginning of may, we're darn close to a three week high you know, a half a basis point this 297 area is an area to pay attention to maybe the most interesting thing is you look at that chart. the high for the year on a closing basis is 311 we're currently at 297 we're basically 14 basis points away from our high and we've talked about how the bunds many of the rates in europe underperformed but it's apples to oranges. not necessarily in this case look at the may first of bunds around 50 basis points high close for the year is 64. it's also 14 basis points away from the high. pay attentio

rick santelli.d morning, rick. >> good morning, carl. another very, verynteresting day in the fixed income and fx space. look at one week of tens you can see we have moved back into a zone. that's pretty good resistance. and today, in particular, what was most interesting is the data wasn't good today and rates are up and yesterday the data was solid and rates weren't. granted we did see that easing of the trade balance, but truly something else is going on and maybe what is going on is looking at two day of bunds. they're up seven basis points. when bunds are up, you would think that things going on in the rest of southern europe like italy would see their rates moving in a particular direction. most likely the downside that is not the case as a matter of fact, what we're seeing is rates are moving up in italy. now bunds are up 7 look at the italian two-year it shot up look a longer chart of the italian 10-year. it starts around the third week in may the reason i picked it, it gives you a nice grap

> scott, we'll see you then thank you very much. >>> let's get out to the cme group in chicago rick santellith the santelli exchange. hey, rick. >> hi, mike. it seems so incongrunt to look up and see twos are unchanged, tens are down one, 30s are down three. this is after maybe not stratospheric but up 4.6 to 4.8 for gdp. maybe it won't come out at 4.8 but others that try to handicap the gdp number for q2 are all crossing that 4% threshold there's some time left maybe we can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat but it still seems like solid growth so what's up with the markets? to me, it's an ongoing story that isn't going away. matter of fact it's going to get much more difficult to my opinion to handicap. okay it's domestic versus global economies impact on the markets. you look at what we're talking about with regard to our gdp then look at what's going on in europe, in japan and it just doesn't fit. so, it's very difficult for the u.s. to leverage up its growth in a global fashion the way many thought we did for a while when it was synchronized growth i remember being on record saying

we'll talk to top anti-trust lawy lawyers in a few moments rick santelli, flattish action market dayhat are you watching? >> yeah. no i was watching that data, cpi headline, year over year up 2.8 the biggest since 2012 japan had a big headline read at 2.7. central banks, this could be a big week e eal talk about a tt te llhaafr thbrk. see that's funny, i thought you traded options. i'm not really a wall street guy. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sur at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade >>> top of the hour, famed investor paul tudor jones that stocks could go crazy at the end of the year even if rates continue to move higher. plus, st

rick santelli and the santelli exchange good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl.the next eight days, there are so many major policy meetings going on in so many different areas and all roads lead to potential market moving outcomes consider this friday and saturday up in the great north in canada, we'll have g7 parades for the president's team as they go to canada we know all the issues going on there. then, of course, we transition into the 12th. singapore, north korea, huge potential implications how could that have a transition into the market? remember when things weren't going as well on north korea, how all the talk was supposedly being a downward force in the markets? one would only think that should it go in a better direction, having a meeting at all at least gets you aiming in that direction that that could possibly be a positive, potentially a bigger positive, depending on the outcome and, finally, oh, my gosh, wednesday, thursday, friday. so wednesday we have the second day of our meeting, and a presser and a rate decision, potentially. ecb, presser th

. >> first up, more economic data to chew on rick santelli for breaking consumer sentiment rick >> yesonth read gets tossed and our june final read the university of michigan sentiment read is 98.2 now our midmonth read was 99.3 so it looks like a bit of a disappointment, and it is. but in the record books, it's actually higher because our final read for the month of may was 98 even. so 98, now 98.2 is a bit lower than many had anticipated. and if we look at the inflation projections, there's actually something interesting. on the one year inflation projection, it hit 3%. the midmonth read was 2.9. the five to ten-year inflation, 2.6 which remains constant to our midmonth read at 2.6 treasury yields are very slightly higher on the day a bit low or the week. but the trade seems to be all about the mid-280s and maybe a bit higher as kweeequities got r sea legs back. >> well put, rick. thank you, rick santelli it's the final day of the quarter and the first half of the year major averages look to end the year higher as financials finally snap that 13-day losing streak joining us this morn

save up to 15% when you book early at hollidayinn.com >>> let's head up to chicago and the santelli group where rickly has the santelli exchange. >> thank you, jon. one of the trader favorites. let's start with the ism this series started in july of '97. i would like to throw up on the reen a chart of how all that time has fared with regard to what these numbers have been released at, what levels what i want to draw your attention to is the fact that on that chart, going back to the very beginning, there's only three reads 60 or higher and the last, i believe, it's been a while the last is probably around '05, i'm guessing the point is that we've been very close january was only a couple of decimal points away. and today's number was 58.6. so even though that isn't at 60, these very lofty reads there was one asterisk on this report let's throw it up on the screen. supply shuttering because of lack of drivers and equipment causing delays in multiple modes of transportation. the activity to adjust to this is not causing stockouts yet and we are increasing inventory levels in anticipation of worsening

about 15 minutes or so away >> we're looking forward to it thanks >>> let's get over to cme and rick santelliantelli exchange >> good morning, and thank you it's been really a very fascinating week whether it was the central bank meetings, what's going on with tariffs, the discussion with john fort was a wonderful discussion you can take the normal route to do certain things, but sometimes the normal route turns into a bureaucratic red tape nightmare. sometimes you have to figure out a way to get issues to the front of the line. one of the front line issues for me has a lot to do with what i discussed with former st. louis fed president and ceo william pool this morning. he wants to talk about nonmonetary policy the reason he wanted to is because monetary policy can never leverage enough to address all the ills that many of us have been set up to believe it can. the examples were terrific just to make some of them simple, certain regulations and restrictions and inefficients in economies from japan to europe are never going to be fixed by negative interest rates and central bank purchases but

go long™. ♪ >>> let's go over to the cme group and check in with rick santelli and the santelli exchangemorning. i'm going to have some fun on a topic that's been on my mind for a long time and on many viewers' minds as well. what do internet sales and china have in common a lot more than you think. a lot in common with tesla acres lot in common with ethanol, ride sharing, uber, lyft. what subsidies gone wild. now you can call them any other names, but they are subsidies. the fact that we're going to charge tack taxes on the intert sales. let's think about how all these things started many of the issues, even china and its relationship with the advanced economies, they wanted to welcome china in. world trade organization help them establish the type of economy that could take care of its well over 1 billion population with regard to the internet targeted temporary assistance to get the internet to grab on, to take hold, to create a wonderful new industry electric cars, ethanol government's heart, for the most part, is always in the right place. the problem is that temporary, targeted ass

rick santelli with breaking economic data. yes, good morning, sara our april read on factory orders expecting down 0.5% to 1%. we were down 0.8%. last month revised up by 0.1% to 1.7. now we can tell that aircraft and transportation may have weighed on that number because extransportation factory orders is up 0.4% let's look at our financial april read on durable goods. the midmonth read was minus 1.7. what did we end up with? minus 1.6. that's now in its place and the weakest number since january's minus 4.2. so the second weakest of the year let's strip out transportation and it also improves up to 0.9%. if we look at capital goods orders, nondefense aurcraft, a proxy for business spend, it's up 1%. if you look at shipments versus orders, they're up 0.9%. we are up a basis point at 292 in tens. dollar index down more than 0.3 cent >> still up 200. rick, thank you. >>> our road map begins with microsoft m&a. the company announcing its plan to acquire github and microsoft's ceo satya nadella will join us first on cnbc >>> plus

the lowest prices. >>> busy fed day let's check in with rick santelli and get the santelli exchange hey good morning, carl. you know, it should all be so easy we see inflation ramp up, we look at a good deal of the rate structure on the curve below what many perceived the rate of inflation to be, and, of course, our currency, albeit off where it settled last year, higher on the year, settled around 92, not up by much, especially when one considers how far down the rate increase and, of course, balance sheet reversal route we are on versus other central banks and we know we live in a globalized central banking world where policy washes ashore of other countries, even if it is unwelcome to some extent. let's take yesterday a today you know, yesterday we had hotter cpi, especially some of the year over year numbers today, pretty much everything from top to bottom on ppi was hot, from the month over month changes, headlining out to the year over year numbers but yet, it looks to be the ninth day in a row we will set until the 290s we had a stretch in february and march where we had a long s

we'll get to rick santelli at the cme in chicago good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl.f course so many things, so many traders on the floor paying close attention to the trifecta of central bankers on wednesday, thursday, and friday the ecb and the boj and the everything going on with regard to italy maybe back pedaling. the economic minister that post started the squabbles to begin with the current seems to be saying the right things as yields move down in italy but up everywhere else one week of two we've moved up a bit. it's the fed meeting we have cy to move up. they're not huge moves but we're holding significant support on yields we all kw that tens for a small amount of time violated 28 on a closing basis italy's raising rates made everybody nervous. we'll get to europe. let's look at the one week of the bunds. and the bund deals popped a bit but they're not above 50 here is the real issue for today. look at the italian twos hovering around 109. the one week chart is great. we're down 60 basis points we haven't taken out the extremes of the range. it's been that

. >> thank you let's check in with rick santelli good morning, rick. >> happy friday.ually founded in substance the problem is too many conclusions are drawn and we tend to get a little lazy on big, conventional wisdoms. several of them actually have come into play regarding trade i've heard several times over the last couple of days, experts from all over the world on trade. and many disagree with this current administration's style and effective program to accomplish what it's trying to accomplish now i'm not saying i agree or disagree one thing i can make an observation on, all the experts in many areas have never brought home the bacon, as smart as they may be think north korea. think some of the cracks that have developed in long-term agreements, whether on trade or other issues with other countries. just the very structure of globalism. think of another conventionalism. multinationals and the u.s. greenback. suffer greatly when the dollar improves and imports get cheaper. we always concentrate on the export side. here is my issue really, really, it's the path and

dow down 249 let's get to rick santelli with the santelli exchange. >> good morning, carl. rick. >> good morning, carl. thank you. i would like to welcome my guest from newberger berman. what we just heard was breaking news, maybe reports of exactly how much the u.s. will contest sharing or allowing companies to invest in certain strategic areas, maybe a fake news story you know, it's very difficult, even the news we know to be true coming from the president and administration, it must be very difficult to service investors at this time. >> the trade issue is a challenge. july 6th deadline for the 50 billion. our volatility will keep rising over the next week we have the mexico election coming up over that period of time, too. the introduction of the threats, $250 billion tariffs, car maker tariffs, it's a risk that's been there but it's percolating more into the market. we're reaching a deadline where we can punt on it but we think something is going to end up happening one way or another. >> so hard to get bearings i see them quoting chinese news st

. >> a lot to get to melissa, thank you >>> rick santelli is at the cme. rick >> thanks, carl.w that investors need to try to get a handle on to keep their positions profitable, to limit risk, to potentially neutralize some positions in the face of uncertainty. boy, that's really a tough one nowadays one thing i can tell you is if you look at what's going on in the u.s. economy, present and future against what we know now about europe, china and japan, and even forgetting all the trade issues out there, it really is quite a teeter totter with respect to the u.s. holding up so much better and all the other large economies really sliding in a variety of ways let's take europe, for example now today's an important day in europe in brussels, they have a big eu summit and in the summit there's a lot of unhappy campers let's start with one deputy secretary of italy, salvini. he grabs a reporter and starts talking to a german newspaper -- magazine actually. and his comments -- i'm paraphrasing -- he wonders what the longevity of the entire framework of the countries that formed the eu

rick santelli of the cme group, what was demand like, rick >> demand was about average.e auction a c minus, charlie minus for demand straight up or straight down, i should say, at 11:30 eastern $32 billion three-year notes, to september 2010 when it was $33 billion. and today total of 54 billion in supply in 76 minutes we'll have 22 billion ten-years. the data 2.664 was the yield at auction pretty much right there in the wi, one-issue market offer spread if you continue to look through everything, everything was basically average to a little light. 2.83 to2.9 ten auction average. 51.4 on indirection. 52 is the ten auction average. everything a little light. but i do think that the next couple auctions are going to be huge to give us some insight into investors because we have two auctions today, wrapping up by tomorrow because the big rate announcement by the fed comes on wednesday. back to you. >> that's right. all waiting for that thank you, rick santelli as we go to break, take a quick check on the markets dow up close to session highs. 37 points. s&p, 2726. and thenh

. >> let's head over to the bond pits and check in with rick santelli in chicago. good morning. one week tells you quite a bit of information we've been on a downward drift for a while here, a couple of weeks. nothing huge, but all of a sudden we find ourselves looking at a chart starting in mid-may we hover at one-month low yields and we want to pay close attention to the levels in the mid high to mid-270s and we're half a dozen basis points away and if you look at year to date of hyg and that's a high-yield atf and very good support and this, somehow is kind of like a barometer for sentiment in the marriage between fixed income and equities the investment grade lqdef looks completely different and it's building and wants to do better. many are spreading the two against each other look at a mid-november of the dollar versus the yuan, and that's the chinese currency because we moved this week from the very end of december and now all of the way into november, the 21st to be exact the last time the relationship was priced at these levels and by the way, today is the

rick santelli. good morning, rick >> reporter: good morning.ens tells you everything you need to k just a slight ski slope and all of a sudden we're in the mid 280s down four basis points at 284. if you own the chart up to february 1st, the technicians out there blur your eyes a bit it has that topping look to it not only that, if you look at overseas one week of bunds, we keep knocking at the door. monday, today right around that 30 basis point level open the chart up a little bit, it's a significant level i like to look at days where there was crazy volatility like periods at the end of may and those areas in the market, in this case, under 30 and bunds under 284 in treasury yields ten year those are areas you want to pay attention to we hit them and lifted off again. that means that's a weak zone. and here we are. consolidating there. if we look at one week of dollar index, it's the bright point we're back to the 95 one week of the dollar yaun. dollar continues to escalate they're trying to ease in china. a sign they're not as strong as they

rick santelli with the santelli exchange happy friday >> happy friday. thank you. d like to welcome dr. william poole, former st. louis fed president and ceo. bill, thanks for joining me. first time >> great, rick i see you often on cnbc. thank you. i enjoy it you always have something good to say >> well, that's a great compliment coming from you i had everything outlined i thought we'd talk about and right before we went on you said you had a topic that would be very interesting to discuss. nonmonetary policy bill, tell me what your thinking on nonmonetary policy that our viewers should be aware of >> think about the ecb and the problems in europe can the ecb fix the crazy italian politics no think about the problems in japan, an actual decline in the workforce and the inefficient regulations in japan can the bank of japan fix those things no and now we've got, in the news very much today the trade restrictions so can the federal reserve do anything about the trade restrictions just announced? for example, the restrictions will put a big tariff on imported diesel

rick santelli thismorning. >> we're watching the selloff today.quite to session lows. the dow has gone negative for the month, and bob pisani has been keeping us honest >> they're selling trade names and momentum names double whammy. take a look alt the big material names. mosaic, all the big names in that sector, dow dupont, a dow compone component, also down noticeably. with the big industrial names the other group moves to the downside, freeport newcore the industrials, logistics names like c.h. robinson as well as caterpillar and boeing to the down side. fang plus, high momentum stocks you look at, baidu, alibaba, twitter, nvidia, all also to the downside finally, one of the worst day yz have seen in months of the semi-conductors. probably going back to late march, early april, declines of 2%, 3%, even 4%. back to you. >> thank you very much we'll keep our eye on all of this with the dow showing pronounced weakness. s&p down 40. not quite to session lows. >> sometimes it's hard to figure out what people are selling for what reason. it's intere

rick santelli. >>> good tuesday morning. welcome back to "squawk on the street".ments g.e.'s john flannery will join us in an exclusive you don't want to miss. first we will look at the s. dow trying to hang on to early gains after being down nine of ten. s&p up almost eight. >> trade is certainly the focus. our road map begins with the after math of a sell off. stocks modestly high following dramatic losses but have fears cooled off >> the president taking on harley davidson over twitter following the statement that it will shift some production overseas. why the president is saying they will be taxed like never before. >>> and finally john flannery will sit down with us about 30 minutes from now and talk about today's big news. >>> g.e. is the story of the day. the shares are up sharply as the company announces plans to monetize about 20% and will distribute the remainder and saying it will exit the baker hughes stake on the first day the dow trades without g.e. as a member. it has been over 100 years. let's bring in michael santoli joining us here. that is tert

can't wait see you, scott >>> cme group, rick santelli has the santelli exchange. od morning, jerome schneider. >> good morning. >> jerome, so many things out there are right in your wheelhouse one is a topic near and dear to my heart that doesn't get much air time interest on reserves ior. it's now picy tool that's melted away into the shadows until now. we should have a chart up there, but why is interest on reserves something important and why is it now being recalibrated? >> simply being recalibrated that we're past the financial crisis. >> a good ways past it. >> a good ways past but more importantly what we're doing is making small, minutiscule steps it was meant to be a floor, not a ceiling rate it's been the past few years j. powell is looking to normalize that and bring it down what does that mean for investors? >> let's make this even more plain spoken interest on reserves is a nice treat for those th can get t now they're taking away a little of the sugar out of the recipe why are they making it less tasty is what i really want to dmoe. >> simply less res

with the santelli exchange. rickank you i'd like to welcome my guest, ed lazear it's jobs friday >> hey, rick good to see you again. >> all right very quickly, let's go through the unternals. up 0.3, average internal earnings up 2.7 year over year. 2.6 has been running pretty wild in january we had 2.8 it's still really isn't breakout material workweek, 34.5 six out of the last seven months have been 34.5 with the exception of one month and that was january at 34.4. and 3.8% i had to go back to december of 1969 to find a lower rate. we've had 3.8 many times, but to find a lower, 1969 233,000 jobs your take, ed. >> okay, well, good summary, rick i think the important point to take from this is that the unemployment rate that we've been looking at for over a year now is not a very good summary of where we are in the labor market if you think back six months or so, we had an unemployment rate that everybody thought was just signaling a labor market drum tight. low 3.2, 3.4%. it's a half a percent below that now. we were

rick santelli in chicago good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl.eps overtaking the same mountain just about every couple of days. we get down in the low 290s. we move up into the higher 290s. you look at a 24-hour chart of the ten-year note yields they look like they wanted to grab, but they're losing it a bit. i'll tell you, the philly fed isn't a big number, but it definitely is on the weak side, weakest since november 2016, but there's a lot going on let's look at the entire month of june for ten-year and the reason i do that, look at the scaling there, okay? all in the 290s and that one dipped the other day and we settled at 289.75 and this is the 15th day we'll be closing in the 290s let's look at the one-year bunds. they're very close to 30 basis points they're 33, 34 right now you can see by that chart that being on the south side of 30 or the north side of 30 is significant. we want to monitor that, and i think it's a variety of things going on whether it's equities and trade making markets a bit nervous. when equities get nervous, it is th

carl and jim, back to you. >> rick santelli in chicago. back, eli lilly's david ricks with big pharma. dow holding at 76 and the s&p 2784 with tripadvisor, finding your perfect hotel at the lowest price... is as easy as dates, deals, done! simply enter your destination and dates... and see all the hotels for your stay! tripadvisor searches over 200 booking sites... to show you the lowest prices... so you can get the best deal on the right hotel for you. dates, deals, done! tripadvisor. visit tripadvisor.com >>> i'm not going to get tel you there's not friction in the system there's a lot of friction in the trading system right now but ultimately i think the goal that the united states wants is is clear and i think it is the right ultimate goal. the right ultimate goal is that every country should lower their trade tariffs, lower their barriers, get rid of tariffs, get rid of barriers. >> that's gary cohn talking this morning. also commented on whether or not tariffs could offset tax reforms. and on the president's tweet on that jobs friday

. >> sounds good see you then to the cme group in the meantime and check in with rick santelli and getlli exchange. >> good morning, carl. so i know we have a lot of central bank meetings and every one of them is going to important fovestors and potentially modifying their investing strategies, but there's one that stands out and today's market reflects that it's the eand why does it stand? well, not many times do we get such a good glimpse into the psyche of investors as we have the last couple weeks and i guess a thank you to italy is in order, not for their misfortune or their debt or some of the complex issues they face but for how their markets have behaved and wh other markets did because of that. as their rates started to fly, and the thumb on the scale started to lose its downward pressure and, of course, i'm referring to how the ecb - when they lend against it and give the bank of italy money timately there'ses a problem out aren'predetermined.and the and once that happens, a variety of things start to happen. we see investors run towards safety, pushing yields and u.s. treasu

rick santelli. >> all you need to do is look at fed fund futures december that spike there was may 29th the height of the italian votility before that, may and 2nd meeting we were lower than we are now. unusual because lower is usually less tightening and higher more tightening it's drifting lower as the curve continues to flatten the dollar index is hovering around 9360. off about a fifth of a cent. like said, melissa, we are in tight ranges. let's head east. d.c. to be specific. sarah. >> rick, thank you the president is back home today but etary of stae eo is still in south korea putting a time line on innings we will tell what you he said. >>> the g interview with house ways and means chairman kevin brady to talk taxes, trade, north korea, and the economy and jns more. heoi us here in washington that's next on "power lunch. >>> president trump is back at the white house today. secretary of state mike pompeo stayed behind in asia to put a time line on north korea's denuclearization house with the detailshe white hi. >> hi, tyler a couple of off camera developments to bring you up to

we'll get to the bond pits, as well rick santelli at the cme good morning, rick >> reporter: good morning, carl. obviously, equities had an interesting run. softest in the dow and the nasdaq big issues there there's not a big issue in the fixed income space most treasury rates are close to unchanged on the week. there is a bit of a curve bias look at a one week of tens and if you pick 290 to be your support, and just under 3% to be your resistance, the month of june has been kind to you. let's look at tens minus twos. there's a year to date chart we're not on the flat lows going back to '07. but we're close as we hoover around 36 basis points you know, a lot of attention bait paid to italy and some lesser extent greece is the quiet little deal they made to extend, of course, the game plan, i think, in certain ways with regard to how the european union treats the greek economy but you can see that when it gets crazy over there the inverse relationship pressures the higher quality bund yields down maybe less and less. maybe it's something to pay attention to remember the ecb and mario an dr

right now the dow down 66 points >> thank you >>> let's get to the bond pits we'll check with rick santelliood morning, carl. it's been an interesting week. when you throw in yesterday's notion of volatility, and, yes, it was fairly interesting. i was basically on the air as we had what was perceived to be transmission lines from a number of areas we have, and you have highlighted all the events happening over the next seven or eight days in the form of policy whether it's monetary policy, trade policy, foreign policy and emerging markets we did get some movement obviously yields down. you look at the two-day chart you can pick it out yesterday. previous flash crashes put this one to claim it wasn't a flash crash. it was just a market move. and full basis points nowadays may seem like a lot because, for the most part, other than a few moments of crazy volatility, the treasuries and yields in general have been rather orderly with long periods of consolidation. look at one week of tens what is interesting here we sit at 293 up one on the day. we've had voyages close to 3%, depending which you

kay k kayla, thank you very much joining us today is james, frederick newman, steve grasso, and rick santelliin chicago. steve, beginning with you. markets don't have a care in the world, lack of progress on trade with china, i mean why do you think that is? >> just doesn't -- i would think you have to look back to what are the tail winds for the economy? we have that great jobs number friday i think people are putting it into perspective that we still are economically in tact with growth if you look at it from that standpoint, how do you worry about europe how do you worry about everything else? you can worry about it, but i think they take a backseat to the growth questions, and you stick with our economy here and what was shocking to me last week was that large cap tech was defensive, so you go to that for growth >> did all right when the markets sold off, yeah >> right when you say it's shaking off the trade issues, look at large cap tech from china, look at those names, those names are blasting though names are making historic highs, so the market, to your point, shrugged off a whole lot

forward to seeing you later in the show joining our exchange now, shannon, keith bliss, and rick santellik, starting with you. at the top, eight straight days down for the dow, down more than 2% week to date. is this getting concerning we said trade wars are weighing on the markets are they now >> well, certainly reaction from investor and traders on international companies, main components of the dow. they are concerned, taking money off the table, above 25,000 again, so it's the right move to do, see rotation into the smaller cap names that do the business here in the u.s i'm not that concerned yet we still don't see the dow as being oversold it's been a drip, drip, trdrip coming down. next week is constructive getting into the end of the quarter, and then we set ourselves up for what happens in the third quarter, start getting earnings reads i'm not concerned right now. the otheint is investors and traders looked at what the strategy and tactics have been over the trump administration, and basically threw a grenade in the middle of the negotiating table, everybody scatters, clears out,

yeah >> let's continue the discussion, and joining us today iss is ernest and steve grasso, and rick santelliwe expect volatility given the month. >> absolutely. it is a day we waited for. this is the third date in june we expect a lot more volatility. i think depending on the activity that we already have seen in previous sessions, a lots been priced in already. might see or continue to see window dressing as we get towards the enof the day >> what's been a struggling couple weeks with various negative headlines and market declines, is it important today we end roughly where we are 200 points on the dow? >> i think so. the volatility adds 1% move to the markets, and investors are not used to that ending up in the green, getting the dow back positive for the year, financials stopping their downturn would be important and understand this is a vacation, holiday mode next week, shortened trading sessions, so buying will drop dramatically. >> anything fundamentally change over the last two sessions that led to the better tone and big rally we've seen versus earlier in the week where there was a l

the famous rick santelli >>> now there are worries about worker shortages steve leisman will tell usthe productivity is a charge it probably will snap back in the second quarter but one of the greatest challenges we face economically, getting to those 3%, possibly 4% growth numbers is bringing up the productivity number in the efficiency of the nation which is why some of the tax cut ideas make a lot of sense which is to incentivize some of the productivity and capital equipment pressures out there. >> you hadn't thought about the lack of capex being part of the reason >> it's a huge issue but if we get accelerating economic growth, we're going to be using the resources of the economy. >> that's what we were holding out for. >> it's what you got >> you just said -- did you say possibly 4%? is th did that come out of your mouth? you said it. >> yeah. 3%, 4% 4% is a good number. who'd you have on yesterday that was talking about 4% >> howard shultz >> yeah. anyway, those are difficult. but i do want to talk about this other thing, joe the government reported yesterday there are now mor

we'll get to the bond pits important story over there rick santelli at the cme good morning, rick. >> variety of important stories this morning, carl let's start with one that is real time. from 8:30 this morning we saw our may housing start and permits. permits were a bit lacking remember the talk about interest rates. the first increase was december of 2015. let's start a june 1st, 2007, housing start. today is 1.35 million adjusted annualized units is the best since july of 2007 but there's always a but isn't there? zoom it back to year 2000 and you can see our high water mark is still way up there at 2.27 million units from june of '06. now let's look at one week of tens today going to be the day we dropped with regard to the closing range? it would be the 13th day, if we close in the 129 -- 290s i think we will. i understand the flight to safety the topic all day has been timing think about what bob said about the stock market and the deterioration in china think about the leverage in china. think about what emerging markets are how they're being affected by the big run up in the

victoria hernandez, dick kavacivic, and rick santelli rick, let's start with you a little bit of a rise on the yield curve. a little bit of a pullback he marketshis not a huge move priced in already. >> what i found interesting was we saw everything snug up to really significant areas of resistance we popped briefly above 3%, came right back off in the 10-year. we tested 2.59% in the 2-year. we backed off of it. dollar index jumped over 94. backed off a bit i think that jay powell is doing a great job communicating. maybe the best communicator i've seen running the fed i've been monitoring it basically since 1978 and i think that his message is reflected in the markets i think the key tomorrow is going to be whether we take out some of these key resistance levels if i was a trader i would look at the response in most sectors. almost got your toes wet but eased back a bit i would think when we come in tomorrow, if the 10-year isn't well above 3%, then you'll see this thing ease off as we move and distance ourselves from the fed. then put the europeans in the box. but that could have a di

over the long-term >> thank you all >> let's talk about impact this has on our markets our on rick santelli over in chicago and matt, i will start with you yes, we are down but really fractionally, we had a decent day bouncing back. >> a sizable one we are at 12 right now we are not seeing any market that's nervous thabt at least in the short term we have been focused in the u.s. economy for so long and we got news out of the feds this week, the u.s. economy is doing well and unemployment is at a historic lows. these are all positive for the markets and that's why we have seen this market reacts the way it has >> larry, do you agree with that >> we are seeing volatility of the markets the last few days. there is no doubt that if you are expecting a calmand easy summer, you are going to have another thing coming to you as this market is on pins and needles ahead of the july 6th deadline that's a big fundamental backdrop, you have lower rates and low energy prices and all are positive for the market die despite all the talk of head winds. the geo political concerns of investors who are daring

. >> thank you >>> we'll get to rick santelli in chicago good morning, rick >> reporter: good morningcarl. all treasury yields are down one basis point. we're very close to unchanged. look at a two-day of tens. settle at $2.92. this is june, right? every single session in june, 10-year note yields closed in the 290. i picked may 25th to start the chart because we had the volatility on the th the end of may that'll give you a nice scaling you casee w we then pretty much wednesdnt sideways. we are up toward 298 now this has been a defining characteristic of treasury yields this year they've been firm right out of the box. they go through long periods of consolidation that don't result in any major reversals to the lower yields spectrum. now if we look at the italian 10s, and i don't think we should completely stop looking at them. just think about all the issues now going on with merkel, immigration, and italy and many, actually, figure in. but this is particularly interesting. they have a quasi double top on yields as you see just under $3.20. we want to pay attention to the macro form

. >>> news alert in the bond market 30-year bonds up for auction rick santelli tracking the action at the cme group. hi, rick. >> hi, yes 14 billion we just completed 68 did billion in supply. we're adding to what was originally auctioned off on the 10th of may. yield at the dutch auction, 3.10 pretty muc it was li looking at a clock that was broken it didn't move the entire process because we're probably getting a rate hike tomorrow having said that, it was a c-plus auction a little better than average actually, quite impressive let's go through the internals 2.38 bid to cover, smack on. 62.2, darn close to the 63% ten-auction average. the one plus that ended up with a c-plus, 10.3% directs versus a 10 auction average of 9% dealers take 27.5% what's interesting is usually we have a lot more aggressive tendencies leading into a fed meeting. rye now twos up on basis point the rest of the curve, highly unchanged. melissa lee, back to you. >>> after an historic meeting between president trump and kim jong-un, the markets is there another meeting that happs ento stocks? "power lunch" will

. >> let's get to rick santelli this morning at the cme group in chicago. orning, carl. if you look at treasury, and they're highly unchanged however, we came that close to 3% ten-year as you see on the two-day chart and if you open up to the third week in may you will see the last time we closed at 3% was the 22nd and what's even more interesting is all of the yields i see as being unchanged are unchanged basically at levels that we closed at about two weeks ago and yesterday. so these are lofty levels. we continue to hold them and stick. one of the impetuses are what's going on overseas and a lot of central banks next week, but look at bund yields and look at the tens and they've also been moving higher. right there you're scratching your head. no flight to safety. and they're getting close to 3%. what's interesting about the italian yields they surged off and they resurged in the last 30 hours the low yield yield has bn 2.5 and the high yield has been 2.94 that's a heck of a range et want to continue to pay attention. the big. day is coming with regard to

we'll get to rick santelli. >> jay powell is going to be greeted by steeper inflation and a flatter curved potentially, as you look u twos, threes, fives. they're unchanged. ten are up one 30 are minus one look at two day of twos. you can see the upward to it interest rates don't have as big a bias leading into a fed meeting as they normally do. maybe that's the attention being paid to over central banks or the notion this is sbuilt into the cake if y look at what going on with ten year, considering we have hot inflation, it doesn't seem to be rnding very much. as a matter of fact, i know you mentioned, carl, the yield curve tens minus two there it is.ptember '07 the lase wet 41 we've flatt tn that today at 40 basis points if you open the ten year chart to february, and this is very important, because markets tend to kind of learn their trading patterns questionable with central bank policy as this year. so you see in february we had many sessions in a row we talked about that closed in the 280s. now this could be the ninth session, depending on where it closes that's in the 290s. ife loo

shook it off last quarter let's discuss it further kevin from riverpoint is here, tim, and our own rick santelli good afternoon to you all. tim, starting with you today, we, of course, saw a negative open and morning. encouraging afternoon. what are your conclusions from that, in particular? >> well, certainly, the upside seems to be the path of least resistance for the market. i think that after europe closed, maybe that got some of the selling pressure on the morning out of the way, and closing down half a percent, and i think it was also very constructive to get rotational actions back into the consumer staple stocks and the stocks because tech is clearly taking a breather after nasdaq closed at an all-time high wednesday >> it's. interesting. >> big pharma has not been in a leadership position in quite a while, highest levels in three months the s&p pushes resistance at 2800, which was hit like a brick wall in early march before a sharp selloff, and so it'll be very intrigues to see is as we approach 2800 on the zcs&p, how the market reacts. >> 2776 with events con fronting us next week wher

. >> rick santelli is tracking the action at the cme group as always, hi rick. >> you look at how muche down and some of the runs we had especially of the dow. it does not seem equitable when you look at how little impact. you are looking at two-days of tens you open the chart up to january 2011, you can see 3% has not been an easy trade we never seem to pop through we have everything in place and we have big issuance and we have a fed that's tightening and best economy in the world other forces are keeping it down like equities and dollar index, if you look at that since the beginning of 2017, you clearly see the 95 level, we are starting to back away and everyone though it is down a fifth of a percent and small increments of dropping price of the last week or so, it is starting to add up a little bit. if you look at what's going on in china with all the trade talks, maybe we should be paying more close attention to their currency the dollar verse of what you want it has been drifting higher as a matter of fact, we are trading at the highest levels of the year on the dollar side of th

rick santelli is at the cme, what do you see for demand >> nine i gave the great b as iy not a bad optionnd we auns that reopenings are not quite the same as the first time let's go through it. 2.962 was the rate of the auction right in the middle of the one issue market just like the last one here is where it is stronger than three years 2.59 bit to cover, that's the best since january it means it is the second best of the year. the light part is in direct 56 verses 10 options here is a highlight. 16.3% on direct. best levels since may of 2015. you know that represents government pension funds and mutual funds and insures this is a big deal to have that category excel so tomorrow we'll have our last leg in the form of 30-year bonds as all eyes looking at the first meeting. >> tyler, back to you. >> the president is over in singapore for major consideration from kim jung-ill. >> the s&p 500 is touching a three-month high today, "power lunch" returns after this. >>> welcome back to "power lunch. let's head down to bob pisani. >> awfully close we are doing it without the leaderships of the

. >> thank you, michelle rick santelli, i hope you are staying cool there i hear it is hot there >> we like it hot in chicago if you look at 10-yr, the trade is not really hot. sideways day we are at 292 highly unchanged to michelle caruso-cabrera's topic, there is one week of the bund they were down at base point of 39 last week we were flirting with 50 bases point there is another coalition that's under duress and that's prime minister theresa may and we'll take a look at that in a minute everyone though on friday we dipped down into 35 and today we spent a lot of time on 36. this chart is really is something that jay powell, the feds got to pay attention to global growth is taking a toll on the long end. back to the story, prime minister may, there is the one week of the pound verses the dollar i has had a pretty big drop. 355 and 235 house of lords voted the mps a.p.s the brexit and the pro-eu groups are not getting along. >> tyler back to you. >> the fang stocks, pretty big over the past months so will fang fever continue on puch "power lunch." that's coming up next. with tripadvi

of the exchange brent is here from northwestern mutual wealth management, and steve grasso, and rick santellirom the cme in chicago. steve, what do you think -- we were -- the ecb was one of the big events this week >> right >> so what now >> well, if you look at the market, i think the market doesn't do justice to what the innards are saying today there's consumer names a little bit pressured from the overall market i'm talking about the retail names, so those names had a huge spike over the last couple weeks, but to steve's point, i think the ecb, a little dovish, market sort of digesting it, but i think the overall health of it is that the market is digested so many things recently, here we are, right on the precipice of making new highs, close enough to say we're in eye shot of new highs, and more and more the list of head winds have become tail winds or at least innocuous to the overall market. >> rick, the mood of the market on the day the ecb said they are ending bond buying programs. extraordinary weakness in the euro off the back of it. >> yeah. you know, you have to kind of put your

. >>> kim forest, steve grasso, and rick santelli with us now. welcome, everybody steve, up 300 basically on the dow right now. what do you think is going on here >> today there's a rotation out of fang into bank stocks that haven't performed as of late and i think everyone was waiting for those financials to sort of kick into high gear and give a little push and tail wind to the economy -- to the overall stock market i think we're seeing it today. but we've talked about it a lot. fang is both growth and defensive names. of fg to mike's point, therehain is some trash. look at snap i'm long snap and i don't want to say it's trash because it's what you said before so i'll dig the hole deeper than you did. but this is a company that was thrown out it got to that peak pessimism point. same thing with tesla. there's a lot of names that -- >> one man's trash is another man's treasure >> right these e good companies but they're not looked upon as quality names. now you're starting to catch a bid and that pushes the market is little bit higher we've shir