we'll have more "squawk alley" right after this >>> rick santelli has the santelli exchange. ck >> thanks my theme today is just trying to get a handle on what's moving the market why is it stuck. is this good or bad and how did we get here? easy questions rs right? i think it's more simple than we think. sometimes, you have to take a step dakback in the back back in the '80s, noitsed something. it seemed like there was a mutually exclusive arrange m between main street and wall street when thought oh my god we're in a recession, matter of fact, a lot of time, wall street starts to talk recession when they feel pressure not necessarily highly correlated with the feelings of main street. how did we get here? maybe it will make us understand better how we're supposed to behave think about it this way. prices and policies. those that ben bernanke brought forth that probably weren't designed to be copied by everyone else in the world if everybody tries them maybe not so much, but prices policy favored large institutions pure and simple. a form of trickle down by the banks where th

i'll tell you after the break. >>> dow's up about 40 points over to the cme now and rick santelli forxchange." looking forward to this one. >> yes james harden if you are a basketball fan, mvp for 2018 season why did he become and why did he get this accolade? was it because people liked him? maybe they like him, but that's not why. is it because everybody gets together and just decides, hmm, let's be kind today and let's just bestow this on him? no, they gave it to him for one reason because he's the best. he deserved it you know, many people wonder why the dollar is the reserve currency of the globe, and it is for the same reason. this wasn't bestowed on us this isn't a gift. it isn't that countries can take it away. it is because we've earned it. it is strength and necessity, not necessarily choice, and this is huge, because right now, let's be honest here, we have about half the country that thinks a certain way, we have another half of the country that thinks exactly the opposite. when it comes to the global perspective, there's the same dynamic. we are really at a point in time

rick santelli with the santelli exchange rick >> good morning, thank you jim bianco, special guest today chart, i love following your chart, you update it every week. what holdings they have in the size of the balance sheet. hopefully viewers are looking. explain this chart of cumulative central bank balances and what's that other line on it? >> you take all of the central bank balance sheets and convert them to dollars and add them up. i got the idea from you, your famous line at all central bank stimulus is fungible let's add them together. because i convert to dollars, i show the dollar index too. the decline we've is because the dollar strengthened and that would reduce the amount of convergence that you have. you strip out the dollar facts and there's been no decline in central bank balance sheets. worldwide central bank stimulus even though the fed has been pulling back is knocked down because the ecb and bank of japan continue to stimulate to more than offset it. >> if you look at the chart people, that basically around the beginning of the year to where we are now, balance sheet

back to you. >> thank you, rick santelli.th ii, awaiting president trump's visit to meet with her our top story this morning has been about the president's visit to the uk. he and the first lady are about to depart london for tea with that lady, queen elizabeth >> reporter: good morning, everybody. i'm just outside winfield house where the trumps are staying the last couple days this is an area highly secured by the british police force. as many as 4,000 police and security personnel are securing the areas the trumps are visiting the next couple days, and not just checkers and windsor castle but at this 12 and a half acre state in the heart of central london. first on the minds of british taxpayers, how much has this cost estimates say over $16 million all of this is happening in the center of london, amidst all of the protests, massive crowds we've seen, all of this as the u.s. president and his wife pros as the president and his wife deprt to have high tea with the queen. >> thanks. >> yes and of course we are also awaiting

rick santelli. good morning, rick >> reporter: good morning, sara.ur chart of two-year note yields you can see they firmed up bit they're unchanged. look at a one week of tens, you can see we had a drift and we're drifting tens are down a couple of basis point, that means we have 253, 284. we're hovering in the low 30s. 31ish on tens minus twos why is that important? the low closing level is 32 plus and the lowest date level from friday, just right around 30.5 we want to continue to look at the spread as it continues to trade at levels unseen since 2007 now, as you look at year to date of the mexican ten year, of course, after the election highly predicted but it doesn't dismiss the notion that things are going to be different. hovering just a bit above 7.6% as you can see on the chart, not a lot ofinfluence with respect to what happened yesterday because it wasn't a surprise you can see a similar scenario certainly we see movement on the dollar side it benefitted the dollar nothing really of late that is surprising or jumps out. finally, let's get b

let's get to the cme group now rick santelli. >> reporter: thank you, czar perha - sara i like to welcomek you for joining me this morning. >> thank you, rick. >> all right you know, i want to talk about today's number, but i don't want to make that the whole topic today. what did you think of today's 4.1% first look at second quarter gdp? >> we expected a strong number this is a strong number. i think the more important thing is where the growth came from. this isn't growth that came from the revisions. there was no drama in the revisions except the saving rate this isn't growth that came from one-time factors this was household spending, business spending, good solid core growth. >> you know and i find that the case, as well. one of the negatives i see a threat of is that there was so much put forward by reform that may skew growth in the short run. i understand corporations have some issues that they were able to maximize one time when those are done, they still have a significantly lower corporate tax rate, individual/personal income taxes don't have any big one timers. isn't a tax cu

trading on monday in hong kong flat on the dow now, scott. >> we'll go to the bond pits where rick santelli cme group. good morning, rick. >> good morning. fascinating set of market reactions to the morning's data. and this morning's data has so many ways to look at it. you know, i stress, again, that several employment numbers go in the year over year wage gains for 2.9. that's when the inflation issues erupted. there is not that type of report good news participation rate went up. markets probably look at that in a more mixed fashion look at two day of tens. everything has moved down. dollar interest rates now two year yields actually are unchanged on the day and up two on the week. look at may 1st chart of tens. all the volatility at the end of may. when things like that happen, you get wild market moves. those extremes give you huge amounts of knowledge that's when everybody's guards are down and that's when you get to see real protection, defense, aggressiveness for ten year note yields that was a 278 yield close. we want to pay attention to that in the big picture you look at the same

jon fortt, back to you >> thank you, rick santelli. >>> when we come back, one of the largest ipos year plus, we heard from qualcomm yesterday, rick clemmer is going to join us as he stays on top of that story, "squawk alley" will be right back are you ready to take your wifi to the next level? then you need xfinity xfi. a more powerful way to stay connected. it gives you super fast speeds for all your devices, provides the most wifi coverage for your home, and lets you control your network with the xfi app. it's the ultimate wifi experience. xfinity xfi, simple, easy, awesome. >>> not just facebook, amazon also down ahead of earnings tonight after the bell and the rest of fang hanging in there pretty well. you see netflix and alphabet and apple slightly in the green. "squawk alley" back in a moment. >>> chinese e-commerce pinduoduo going public raising it 1 the $36 billion making it the fourth largest ipo this year. joining us is the ceo, colin don. thanks for being with us >> hello >> so, i believe pinduoduo loosely translated means more, more value, more fun it immediately reminded m

now to rick santelli and the santelli exchange. rick >> thanks, john.verybody is trying to get a handle on what is going on with regard to our trade practices, trade policies and the notion of how all of that, including tariffs, possibly, more tariffs, possibly, will impact the economy. especially on the near-term basis. in my tease, i said, you know, what do some of the prices like bicycles, clothes, washing machines, furniture, auto parts, what do they have in common? they're teaser import prices sort of like teaser mortgage rates we had in 2001, 2002, 2003, where everybody, including alan greenspan, knew this couldn't last forever. they were too low. they masked so much with respect to due diligence, true risk, affordability, and i think the same thing could be true about teaser import prices and yes, lots of these things are made in china and we all know that many department stores have a saying, every day low prices well, every day low teaser import prices. just think about it a minute, there's a lot of similarities. the main difference is the long

watching the market up almost 200 on the dow rick santelli, what are you watching >> i'm watching theoser to 3% will ten year note yields take elfo3%, take out the 311 high yid r 2018 we'll talk about that after the break. it's all yours. wow! record time. at cognizant, we're helping today's leading life sciences companies go beyond developing prescriptions to offering subscriptions with personalized, real-time advice for life-long, healthy living. honey? you almost done? nope. get ready, because we're helping leading companies see it- and see it through-with digital. >>> scott walker, here's what's coming up on the halftime report lee cooperman is with us live. talking stock picks and decision to stop managing other people's money. >>> plus mashlgrkets, google insurgents toda we're about 15 minutes or so away see you in a bit >>> let's get to cme group and the santelli exchange. hi, rick. >> hi, carl. you look at a chart starting in early 2013 of ten year note yields, there's a couple of important aspects to the chart you need to be familiar with first of all, double tops, double bot

first, rick santelli, what's in your dashboard today >> you know, i'm watching the boards, i'm watchinglds, first day of a two day fed meeting. jamie dimon's words are still echoing in my brain from yesterday's interview. we're going to ltetohaisn tt after the break. need a change of scenery? the kayak explore tool shows you the places you can fly on your budget. so you can be confident you're getting the most bang for your buck. alo-ha. kayak. search one and done. tap one little bumper and up go your rates. what good is your insurance if you get punished for using it? news flash: nobody's perfect. for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to your first accident. switch and you could save $782 on home and auto insurance. call for a free quote today. liberty mutual insurance. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ today's senior living communities have never been better, with amazing amenities like movie theaters, exercise rooms and swimming pools, public cafes, bars and bistros even pet care services. and there's never been an easier way to get gr

. >>> let's get over to rick santelli for the santelli exchange hey, rick. >> good morning.ou. you know, i had a chance to talk to senator pat toomey this morning and there was a couple of areas we didn't have time to cover. one of the areas was his interaction with jay powell on tuesday on the senate side regarding the yield curve and the shape of the yield curve indeed, everybody is preoccupied with it, and there's no other way this could possibly end up of course, all traders and strategists, economists, analysts, people on tv are going to be talking about it because some of the issues that it may be the signals that may be sending seem counter intuitive to everything we can see and touch regarding the economy right now. pretty much everywhere you look, things seem pretty solid granted, interest rates seem to be changing a bit today. as a matter of fact, if you're looking at the screen, you should see a one week chart of tens minus twos. instead of a beeline closer to 20, all of a sudden we're almost at 30 basis points granted, that isn't very aggressive, considering how

. >>> rick santelli what your watching >> stocks. good economic numbers.'m looking at the long end not selling off pushing rates up what's going on. we'll talk about the yield curve ind why the long end is dog its fair share to flatten that all after the break. hymns h.i.m. >> himalayas himalay >>> i'm scott walk are here's what's coming up at the "halftime report". summer rally july is typically a good month for stocks but what about tariffs and this trade tiff. we'll tell you what can bust stocks out of their current range. plus the big call on facebook from one influential analyst you won believe where he says the stock can go pete has found some unusual activity again we'll reveal which stock he thinks is prime for a big move it's all at noon right here at the new york stock exchange. >>> great stuff. meantime let's get over to the cme in chicago rick santelli is there >> reporter: good morning. the yield curve has been center stage and daktebate around every watercooler. and with good cause. there is very little doubt that nothing makes investors more

checking on the bond pits, as well rick santelli on a busy day for data hey, rick. >> reporter: absolutelyand dat it was a on the hot side but it's ppi we need some sort of confirmation to those ever expanding pricing trends, should it be carried through to tomorrow's cpi it's about yield curves. look at year to date of two year notes. hovering at 2.58 and change. that's the high yield close going back to 2018 from mid may. we want to pay attention we continually keep updating the rear view mirror and subtle changes but they keep moving higher two day of tens, you know, it looks like we moved up and we did. overnight we traded as low as 282. here we hovered down one basis point to 284 tens minus twos should they close at 26 be a fresh, flat, back to 2008 they all come to 2008. 30 minus five at 18. these are all flattening and all for the same reasons think ppi and cpi. think the fed and the long end think global issues, and think about low interest rates on a comparative basis in other countries. two day of the euro versus the dollar a bit of a pop but it took it to where it was yesterday

call 1-800-501-6000 today. >>> dow up 150 let's go to chicago with rick santelli rick >> good morninguld like to welcome my guest, peter bookfar thanks for joining me. >> good morning, rick. >> whether it was the wage number on friday's jobs report, the participation rate moving higher, drawing more back into the work force, this morning's national federation of independent business reading is not the highest but darn close like jolt. comments, astounding optimism. but all of that together for me. how should investors look at the current marketplace. >> from small business perspective, always the two things that clog up an economic system is excessive regulation and too many taxes and small businesses have gotten big relief on that end question is do they have resources to provide the services that are needed in terms of demand and we're beginning to see some constraint particularly on the labor side where positions not able to fill hit the highest level on record. finding more bodies to produce the supply the economy now needs. >> peter, my assumption is that we have millions of work

. >> thank you very much let's get to the bond pits to rick santelli. orning, rick >> reporter: good morning, carl. like many trading sessions, the short maturities like two-year notes continue to lead the way toward higher rates. if you look at the 10-year chart of two-year notes you can see in 2008, we did hit as high as 3% up two basis points on a two-year note yield. also up two basis points on 109. as you can see on the chart, it was interesting with retail sales this morning at 8:30 a.m. eastern. you can argue the aspects of the numbers, especially the revisions that were positive the control setting used to plug into other grander numbers like growth gdp it was a bit disappointing we didn't make the high yield on the number we backtracked a libel nonetheless, you can see it powered ahead a bit. and 2.78 is the low close since we made the 3.11 closing high. to give some perspective, we may be in a range. and we may be toward the bottom end of well above last year's high, for example, which was 263 if we look at what's going on in euros versus dolla

and rick santelli, thank you >>> and we are 44 minutes from the closing bell today we are clinging to those modest gains. 144 points on the dow. up next the bank's cfo joins us to discuss his plans for the turn around. >>> and despite the just department filing an appeal at&t's ceo telling cnbc today he is proceeding full speed ahead with integrating its acquisition. we'll have highlights of that interview and some analysis around the stock coming up are you ready to take your wifi to the next level? then you need xfinity xfi. a more powerful way to stay connected. it gives you super fast speeds for all your devices, provides the most wifi coverage for your home, and lets you control your network with the xfi app. it's the ultimate wifi experience. xfinity xfi, simple, easy, awesome. >>> welcome pack to "the closing bell." about 40 minutes until the bell. you see the dow industrials up about 0.4% the s&p barely clinging to a gain above 2801. that would be the highest close since january 2006 >>> shares of wells fargo are lower after the bank fell short of expectations on earnings. rev

sara, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you.dent has landed in london coming up on the closing bell, we'll have a lot more on this official event all throughout the day, including a gala dinner, official arrival ceremony wilfred frost is there on the ground with much color and commentary and find out how special this relationship is between the u.s. and the uk. it's coming up at 3:00 p.m. eastern and we have charles barkley on another note. >> is he going to be commenting on nato? >> no. >> he probably could. sir charles if you asked him. >>> oil we're keeping an eye on. cracking below 70 for the first time since june 26th that's notable considering we were at 75 just the other day. meanwhile, 2787 within the 20-point range between 27-8 and 2800 that people consider rec s resistan resistance. >> you got to commend the resilience of this market in the face of some big and potentially scary headlines on trade we're headed for the best week in stock that we've seen in over a month. saw a blip yesterday back on track today. technolo

rick santelli is talking about a five handle on gdp >> i think we could see 4.7, 4.8. i don't think rick is that too far off. and i don't think we shrugged off the trade wars why is the russell outperforming so much. why are the materials and strilstrilt industrials struggled so much. we have started to frprice in te results. >> but in a normal environment, if you had this rhetoric, you would have had a 10% or 15% correction, no thet 5% or 6% so i think it has been muted i think in the short term things are positive and you want with a to be long equities. you don't want to get overly nervous because of the noise >> all right thank you all for joining us >>> still to come here on the "closing bell," less than an hour away from one of the most closely watched earnings reports of the season. a fulg prpreview of what to exp coming up. >>> and president trump issuing a stark warning to the president of iran. never ever threaten the united states again we'll dig into the escalating tensions and what they could mean for markets as we a wait fresh remarks this hour from the pr

they were people who had never been involved before, but you played a clip of rick santelli's rant.kind of motivated them and they were angry. those people that i spoke to, i don't think they were motivated by anything other than just anger that the idea the government is not listening to them and they felt powerless and wanted to get up and scream. now, unfortunately, you know, i think we all know there were, you know, some racist elements on the fringe of the tea party, but i think that was a very small minority of the people that we saw certainly here in orlando. i can't speak for every city, but you did see that. but, like, that -- they were kind of our cross to bear, you know. i don't think just because there were a few racist people that showed up and held ignorant signs that that means the message about limiting the government so it's small enough to fit inside the constitution is necessarily a bad message just because, you know, a few lunatics subscribe to it as well. >> let me come to you on this, jennifer, because one of the things that is sort of fascinating about the sor

that multiple on the open market when you sell them let's go from equities to fixed income join rick santellicme group in chicago good morning, rick >> good morning, david wish everybody out there a happy independence day of course, tomorrow is the big holiday. if you look up at the boards, we see 255 in a two-year. that's unchanged you see a one-week chart and it definitely has more of an upward bias, especially yesterday towards the end of the session. one week of tens, not quite the same, and we're sitting at 285, down two basis points. because when they ran up yesterday, they hit 287. so quick math, 30 basis points on tens minus twos still hovering and limping along at 30 lowest, flattest curve since 2007 but bunds could be one of the big reasons as the to why this is going on. if you look at a one week of bunds, you notice yesterday we traded 28 basis points we're hovering at 30 and 30 isn't a great level because 30, if you look over the months and months we continually bounce off of it, but the deterioration, much of it due to both mario draghi question marks, bigger question marks abou

rick santelli is in chicago. rick >> reporter: good morning, david. look at one week of tens, we popped up a bit. a basis point half away from 3% and the long ends leading the show today 2s are up one. if you look overseas, bund yields, of course, popped, as well covering in the mid 40s. we haven't closed 45 basis points or higher since june 13th so it's going to be interesting to watch and pay attention to that relationship. you can clearly see the entire eurozone is is a little bit hotter today look at the italian 10 hovering just below 280 making the highest yields for the month of july, as we get ready to close this month out. yields hovering at 11. we haven't seen since june we remember the volatility to the upside and yields we have seen periodically in the italian curve. let's look at the currency markets for a second ye euro versus dollar doesn't look bad. when you open it up month to date they haven't gone anywhere there's a bit of consolidation going on it seems as though we're squeezing the ranges a bit. and finally the dollar yaun. what is

. >>> coming up, rick santelli, what are you watching?like everybody, watching every nook and cranny on the yield curve. is that a good idea? doesn't seem like recession is anywhere near where we're at we have former fed governor mark olson coming up, yes, we are, to scs l osqutis diusalthe eson after the break. still nervous about finding a new apartment? yeah... but popping these things really helps me...relax. please don't, i'm saving those for later. at least you don't have to worry about renters insurance. just go to geico.com. geico helps with renters insurance? good to know. been doing it for years. that's really good to know. i'll check 'em out. get to know geico. and see how easy homeowners and renters insurance can be. whoooo. you rely on tripadvisor so you don't miss out on the perfect hotel... but did you know you can also use tripadvisor so you don't miss out on the best price? tripadvisor searches over 200 booking sites to find the hotel you want for the lowest price. saving you up to 30%! so you can spend less time missing

you guys >> thank you very much, aditi. >>> let's get over to the cme group and check in with rick santelliexchange hey, rick. >> good morning, carl. like to welcome my guest, andy brenner. thanks for joining me, andy. >> rick, always a pleasure good to see you, buddy >> okay. after going through 22 sessions of tense closing in the 280s, that all changed part of the catalyst, at least i believe, is the banking system not only in europe, but in japan, with their policy meeting at the end of the month and qe off the charts there how do you put the pieces together >> well, rick, there's been stories that have been going around that the bank of japan is about to change their guidance and allow rates to rise a little bit. this caught the people that had the flat in the u.s. offsides. so you saw a dramatic steepening of fives 30s and blew right through that 288, 289, 290 level and now around 296 we see the ten-year with support at 303, but in reality, for the market to really get out of control, you've got to go and break that 322 level in the long bond and i don't see that happening this time ar

rick santelli at the cme in chicago. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl.ems to come back and haunt most trending markets. it's somewhat the same for the yield curve which has been flattening, flattening, flattening we did have a little bout of steepening as you can see and carl mentioned, we're looking to extend to july of 2018 getting close to 266 and back a bit. you see the chart. and we're going to count to 2008 for awhile that contained 3% two year note yield. if we look at the other end of the curve, one week of tens, not only is there subtle flattening going on what is interesting here is after we broke our run of 22 sessions in 280 earlier in the week, obviously, you see what happens. we're coming back and testing 290. it's going to be very important. if there's any momentum when we move into the range. my guess you'll see a lot going on you might see some of that behavior early in the auctions today with five year and tomorrow with seven year when it comes to the currencies, everybody has beening watching the dollar yaun and it reversed a bit. the

guys, thanks andy and gordon and rick santelli >>> amazon stock, speaking of amazon marginally higher following yesterday's earnings report we broke hereafter the bell the online retailer posting the largest quarterly profit in the company's history, $2.5 billion. >> the explosive growth leaves many investors wondering what could derail the stock pria, if i start with you, your take away from this earnings report and the fundamental risks outs there to the stock. >> so, the sec has hired a prominent critic of amazon ahead of anti-competition hearings they're having later this year, hearings to discuss how they should be enforcing comp tegz and anti-trust law the power of amazon is going to be continued to be questioned in washington >> do you agree, mark? can a case really be brought against amazon from an anti-trust basis >> well, all the indications from the folks that have looked at this situation have reached the inevitable conclusion that the answer is no it's a combination of the way the anti-trust laws are designed as well as they're enforced particularly with respect to this p

see if we can excite the participants to think about momentum in that fashion again >> well said rick santelli, thank you tim bianco, steve grasso, nice to see you as well the president will be meeting with the 29 nations of that security alliance after some tough talk >> yeah, very tough talk and the amazing thing is he's linking it to trade. this is not really meant to be about that but as has been clear with all of his tweets he's linking it to that >> critical on not contributing to security as well. >> no doubt. and it's going to be a tough couple of days for those locations. >>> brett kavanaugh widely view said as a jurist to a friend to big business we'll take a look at past rulings and some of the business cases he may face on the high court if he gets confirmed this fall >>> and the end of gathering of media moguls, a place are big deals have been made before. so will history repeat a preview coming up after this quick break. hey! are you taking the tissue test? yep, and my teeth are yellow. clearly my whitening toothpaste is not cutting it. time for whitestrips. whitening toothpaste

steve grasso and rick santelli from the cme group in chicago.o steve, a little bit of strength in financials again. i think that is the third day in a row off the back of morgan stanley earnings. >> finally some strength in financial earnings. something else besides tech has to do some heavy lifting in order to keep the market moving forward. yesterday i think it was all about powell. this morning we saw the powell pop, as well. we saw the markets rally. yesterday you had netflix and powell making bullish or, i should say, dovish statements. >> it wasn't hawkish. >> it was definitely not hawkish. it was definitely not hawkish and it is understood to the market place as being dovish. that is what the market place needs instead of a robotic raise, raise, raise. they wanted to see a wait and see. rick talks about this a lot, the yield curve is at the top of everyone's mind. you have to compensate that. i know the fed keeps saying it is different this time. it looks like the market is convinced at least for today. i would say that griffin's statemen

rick santelli. >> 22 -- 24-hour 10, you see what's going on there.rop 2s are up to at 2.54 10s are unchanged at 2. 83%. could be the lowest close, another fresh low close going back to 2007 it's been very incremental, very slow on these comps going back to '07 but the point is there has been very little steepening everybody heard jim say that's a big feature. it is not necessarily a feature because it makes sense 50, 60 basis points affected by the big inventory in fed policy. doesn't matter it is what investors think, and jay powell is going to have to try to get inside investors' heads as he forges ahead on n m normalizati normalization. as you look at a one week of 10s, you can see the deterioration. how many sessions in a row do we close in the 2.90s now we're in the 2.80s you start getting around 2.75s, you are getting more significant support, more from the standpoint should it get vial laid big currency moves lately aren't really the dollar index so much. you look at an october start to the dollar index, the feature is it is whittling away at

. >>> welcome back time to get to the cme group and rick santelli. >> we have an interesting one todaytatistical parlance the numbers for gdp have become a bit more orderly and a bit less sta cast particular you would rather have smooth than choppy even if there's improvement. i found a way to drive that point home i took four quarters of rolling gdp. the lowest gdp that we had, post crisis was last quarter of '10 what happened is i took q4 of '09, took the previous four quarters, figured out the gdp average. i did that all along each of these represents four quarters of rolling gdp. and the way it moves through time is this way this being the most recent here is what's interesting you can see how the numbers move we had a couple of 3%s this is q 1 and 2 and 3 of '10 and so on. what i did is highlight numbers better than today's. if you took the first, second quarter, first quarter and last two quarters of last year, you had 3.1. what's fascinating is donald trump was elected and this is q4 of 2016. what you'll notice is look at how every number slowly moves higher and steady. that is

. >> thank you >>> bond market, rick santelli is tracking the action at the cme in another part of illinois. hi, rick. >> hi. yield curves are wild today. i have four charts, all starting in june, of major yield curve observations and it all points toward flatter 10s minus 2s flattest since august of '07 10s minus 5s, trading around 10 basis points, flattest since july of '07. 30s minus 5s, a whisker above 21, flattest since, you guessed it, july of '07 and finally 30s minus 10s, around 11 plus, july 2007 you know, even 7s to 10s hovering around three basis points what does all this mean? investors will have to let us know through their trading activities most investors think you see inversions, you'll start to see a recession at some point. the debate is how long is that accurate i can't tell you there have been times in the past where it was. those times didn't include balance sheets of other reserve shocked full of securities we'll be very patient monitoring these very large moves back to you. >> thank you very much, rick santelli >>> coming up, a look at one of america's most dangerous

steve grasso is here and rick santelli with us from the cme group in chicago.teve, with the threat of auto tariffs hanging in the balance, is this going to be a market mover to see what comes out of this meeting >> i think that is the major market mover today. we saw the market having the same effect as yesterday where you saw a bid in treasuries and sell pressure in the equity market. and the softer we see trump on trade -- we heard a lot of congressional headlines, as well. you might be getting grid lock from the president's own party. republicans are running capitol hill. they are running the oval office. but if lamar alexander decides to be a road block for the president that could be a win for the markets. >> you are talking about the proposal. >> the market has been afraid of trade. if that happens then the market can run a little bit further, maybe a little faster. that is why we saw key technical levels being taken today. >> how optimistic are you? gdp coming on friday. do you think that is a late cycle print or are we still going to have a few years to

rick santelli is tracking the action what's the demand like >> demand was c minus. yesterday was an a minus five year is by far the best of breed for a number of series of options in the rear view mirror. 30 billion as you heard michele say. yield at the auction 2.93. that was priced where the market wanted pretty average 2.49 a bit below average pretty much smack on ten option average. that's the only thing that was 12%, that's the weakest since january below the 14% ten auction average. dealers take, primary dealers 23.4% of the auction so we finish up with a c minus 101 billion in supply out the door and treasury complex pretty much hasn't really moved in the last hour. back to you. >>> rick santelli, thank you let's get to another big name stock taking a beating, shares of biogen down 9%. alzheimer's treatment came in better than expected but study raising for questions. ronnie, great to have you back with us. it seemed like this study was very messy can you walk us through why you think the stock is down this much right now >> mostly because the hope was that w

we welcome chris johnson, matt cheslock, and rick santelli as always matt, the tech sell-off is getting extend from what we saw on an earnings related melt down from some stocks like facebook and twitter today. what does that tell you? is the tide turning for the group? >> i don't know if the tide is derning on the long-term, but these stocks were extended on the long side. i don't think anybody would argue about that it was a matter of when not if going forward if a company like facebook can return 20%, is that a good enough level to get back to these numbers here. but right now you're seeing another hone it'sute of tech into some more plays that some upside potential, and that's why the market is probably not -- the dow hasn't reacted as violently as the nasdaq. >> growth to value, chris, as some who have been calling for it for years and it hasn't materialized are starting to point to in some of the rotations we've seen last week and today. >> over the short-term basis, i have to agree with matt, it's a bit of a pull back, a relief, if you will not a relief for rally but a relief for

. >> let's get reaction from rick santelli at the cme. i've been listening to you for 20 years i know you hate devaluation of currencies around the world. what do you think about president trump saying this? >> songs it's his own opinion -- i think he made it quite clear that it is you have to understand the person we're dealing with here and many understand donald trump over the decades as long as he doesn't put jay powell in his office and put his finger in his chest and say listen, i want you to stop, he's entitled to his opinion. however it did move markets, two year, five year, ten year, they all dropped two basis points the real issue is that you look at longer term charts it's doubtful he will affect it other than kind of the knee jerk electronic trading everybody responds in algorithms type trade. i will caution just a bit. dollar intext seems to have had the biggest effect that makes sense i would look at 95 as the magic line here f it closes below 95, maybe he did have an effect. intraday highs that we've been flirting with over

an inside look at what you get for that price rick santelli, what are you watching >> watching the long ten year, getting close to 3%. we had 22 sessions in the 280s that ended a week ago friday last week, within a three basis point range. 295 to 298 where are yields going we talk about that after the break. eligible for medicare? that's a good thing, but it doesn't cover everything. only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. so consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like any of these types of plans, they could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. call unitedhealthcare insurance company today to request a free... ...[decision guide.] with these types of plans... you'll be able to visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. join the millions who have already enrolled in the only medicare supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp... and provided by unitedhealthcare insurance company, which has over 30 years of experience behind it. apply for a medicare supplement insurance plan

first, rick santelli, what are you watching >> i am watching 294 yield in ten year notes we have 22 sessionscompact range. seems to be changing what does it mean? what does it mean for japan? talk about that after the break. the employee of the year, anna. [music playing] (vo) progress is in the pursuit. audi will cover your first month's lease payment on select models during summer of audi sales event. with tripadvisor, finding your perfect hotel at the lowest price... is as easy as dates, deals, done! simply enter your destination and dates... and see all the hotels for your stay! tripadvisor searches over 200 booking sites... to show you the lowest prices... so you can get the best deal on the right hotel for you. dates, deals, done! tripadvisor. visit tripadvisor.com that's a good thing, but it doesn't cover everything. only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. so consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like any of these types of plans, they could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. call unitedh

but you're going to have to wait for me to say more because we got to get to rick santelli. he's at the cme group, he's got some data for us, rick, take it away >> we're looking for the university of michigan sentiment, it's down at 7.1, that's definitely a miss, we're looking for a number near or above 98 in march we were at 101.4, that was a huge read going back to january '04. so this read will get pulled at the end of the month so we want to pay close attention we want to look at inflation, especially this week's twin reads of gpi and cpi, we're looking at the one-year on inflation, and that's actually down a 10th from last month, it did hit 3% it the five to ten-year read, that dropped .2, this goes hand in hand with what came in earlier in terms of import and export prices. usually not that exciting with the headline series. but the number is down .4. maybe this is energy, volatile, indeed some of it, but you take petroleu petroleum, the tariff scenario is getting nastier, that was part of what was going on with regard to chesapeake b china and some of their numbers on

. >>> welcome back rick santelli here on the cme floor. inflation numbers are all hotter than expected many paid close attention to one in particular. year over year core hitting 3.4 basically six-year high. if you look at the fed's favorite inflation gauge, personal con semgts expenditure. if we look at other gauges, the fed has an underlyingen flags gauge. uig. it has hit a 12-year high in terms of inflation these are all big deals. but the big deal isn't showing up in the big arena. ten-year note yields hardly influenced. why? i'd call it manmade ibs. inflation is supposed to push up the long end get the fed tightening and slow down or reverse a business cycle. why flattening curves make every investor anxious but manmade effects try to deal with the crisis, kicking the can down the road well now we're down the road and there's the can and we have flat yield curves the calibration for inflation has to be adjusted i had a gentlemen on this morning, we were interrupted by the president. jim grant of jim grant's interest rate observer he w

michelle back to you. >> thanks rick santelli.'s get more reaction on the beige book the president's comments, trade, today's rally in the markets we are joined by sunni hartford. what do you think when the beige book says employers are struggling to fill jobs. are you worried about inflation or are you thinking wow it is a great economy. >> as expected i think the market will focus on the wage pressure and the inability to fill jobs. that's where we will focus i don't think it is a surprise they talked about tariffs. the treat has been counting the number of times tariff has been written into the beige book reports. may was 22 this reference will be more than that i want to see a follow-up to these numbers since they were as expected on consumer spending as well as demand for loans those are two things that are going to come out of this pressure in actual effect in markets and earnings that i wait to see. >> we heard from jamie dimon in his conference call that trade is impacting the psyche of clients but not their actions. can w

the president and vladimir putin to take the podium if you are wondering why we cut away from rick santelli in a hurry, we got a two minute warning that the news conference was about to begin obviously that hasn't happened welcome to live television we apologize to rick for the interruption we'll wait as this is about to start. we expect putin to get the first question, and michelle car use oh cabre-- michelle cabrera, hel face questions about the would be splintering of nato often said is in his interest. >> i can imagine that could be the first question, he could be asked about syria, assad, about the meddling from the indictment there's a lot of questions that he could face. it is interesting to see him face questions from partially american reporters because often when we see him do his annual press conference in russia, it is always very friendly reporters, reporters from within the country. so it will be interesting to see his response, how he does on those kind of situations, the same way we talked about it when xi jinping was at the white house with obama how was he going to take di

rick santelli has it. >> we're expecting up half a percent for the june read.ut that's all the good news because if you look in the rear view mirror, down .10 now down .5. if we look at capacity we're expecting a number 78 or higher and 78% on the nose. that follows, also, a reverse revision from 77.9 to 77.7 now 78.0 and i don't know how far they rounded it out, two months ago we were at 78.06. that was the best since march of '15. the weakest month was a bit under 77 in january. a bit of a disappointment, especially with regard to the revisions. of course, jay powell coming up soon and many will spend a lot of time looking at the yield curve and trying to think about what mr. powell may say about the yield curve. carl, back to you. >> raises the question brian moynihan on "mad money" said their macro is looking for 4% growth for the second quarter. >> wow. >> atlanta is back to 4.5. >> i mean, this is -- we're getting a lot of different numbers. but i'm really tempted to go with what brian said on the show, which is you take the over, so to speak, of growth.

level the fed looks at the economy, it's not necessarily changing the course >> i want to bring in rick santelli in chicago to dig into the yield curve comments how is that playing out in the bond pits? >> there really wasn't much movement in the bonds. intraday moves, white noise, many people on the floor were disappointed on the yield curve amount of information. but that is not jay powell's fault, that's because pretty much every congressman was into the political aspects of the economy. he was playing it straight he's a steward of the economy with two pillars, maximum employment and stable prices most of the questions were about things outside his jurisdiction, where they want the fed to be a nudger because congress lost all their teeth. they don't like what the president does they don't like what the fed does they're not crazy about the supreme court picks because they don't use their own power. i thought the most enlightening thing about this was how pragmatic jay powell was and how, i don't know, off the wheels most of the questions were >> it's true he was pressed repeatedly about elemen

that's up 0.2% and for rick santelli, the u-6 or real unemployment rate was at 7.8% again, non-farm payrollsback to you. >> way to go, diana. >> those are big shoes she just filled and did it very well >> i saw no evidence of any nerves whatsoever. >> and we had a goldilocks number.ldilocks number >> look at the market. >> we'll see if it sticks. let's get to reaction from our panel. this guy is so far from go goldiloc goldilocks, paulsen. what's the opposite of goldilocks get off my lawn. what do you think of this number >> i agree i think it's goldilocks. the participation rate went up the unplaemployment rate went u. we had weak wages. i think that's about as good as we're going to get here. i don't know what the bond market is doing, but i imagine it's rallying and this is pretty good for stocks. it even makes you wonder if the fed is on hold a little bit or slowing its trajectory a little bit. >> all right let's move around the room how about -- that's not a room, but around our six box whatever we have how about you, phil? >> i agree i look at the u-6. it's still up there, right there'

. >> thank you very much let's get to rick santelli, as well check in on the bond pits in chicago. >>ing, carl. it is an exciting day in so many fixed income areas you look at a two day of ten year note yields, hey, we popped over the 290 level as a matter of fact, it doesn't like we're going to get 23 sessions in a row. starting june 21st, when we started settling in the 280s, 22 sessions doesn't look like number 23. in that time, the last couple of days, we've seen some decent steepening 10s to 2s. 24 the low they're now at 30. 30s minus 10, nine is the low and 30s minus 5s they're at 27 maybe more focus should be japan. see the next chart year to date of 10 year japanese government bonds. first thing is, look to the right side for scaling so far this year they've had a crazy range. two basis points to 10 basis points the bank of japan is trying to control the yield curve. but they're also running out of things to control in a successful way as banks and other profits keep moving lower. they're going to tweak it a little bit maybe remove some stimulus we've discussed that it has to

our closing bell exchange to talk about how earnings are effecting this market, steve grasso, rick santelli always is with us steve, i guess we should start with the nasdaq turn around and now lower on the day why? >> so i do think you're going to have these ebb and flow reactions in the marketplace when you take out these historic highs and then you want to pull back a little, build a foundation what's really interesting is when you look at these technology names look at after netflix reported, you start to see the divergence between a google and netflix facebook is up, amazon is up amazon can walk that tightrope, it could be a value dare i say stock because it can turn the spigots whenever it wants. if you look at google or facebook as opposed to a crm, a netflix, a workday, the group is diverging. value versus growth that bob was talking about before, the market is hungry from growth so they're looking at technology names and not trading them as a block as they used to they're separating out those really growthy torque names versus the quote-unquote value name like a google hey, i sat on

bonds and the dollar getting hit off the back of the president's comments let's go to the bond pit rick santellining. >> reporter: good morning. you know, the president's talk with joe kernen whether it was yesterday's parts that we were able to see or today, they had an affect on the markets without a doubt. but the effects don't seem huge. and we'll reserve comment on the dollar in a minute one week of two year note yields we can see that the last couple of days it drifted down a bit. in in the context of the week, not a lot of movement. as a matter of fact, if you look at one week of 10s, everything along the curve yesterday virtually moved down two basis points with regard to comments by the president regarding the fed and his opinion on the process and the policy of implementation but look at the way in the ten year is actually starting to turn back up and do remember today most likely will be the 22nd sessions that we've closed in the 280 you talk about a market that is compressed and doesn't seem to be flustered by whether it's strong data, mediocre or tweets or policy or comments by the

to repeat it let's get to our closing bell exchange today cnbc market analyst steve grasso and rick santelli joins us as always. steve, are you impressed with how the rest of the market held up despite that facebook flop? >> so if we would have all sat here yesterday and said that facebook was going to have that flop and what would the market do the following day we would have thought it was going to crater we would have thought the other sectors would not be able to compensate we would have thought a ton of things were going to happen. none of that happened. i think the fact today they're weeding out facebook even from the value side of faang is very healthy. >> chris, when we consider the big risks that remain out there, has trade gone away or been much diminished >> it's gone away for a few hours but certainly not gaone away at all. i think the one thing that will take it away in general is if we get a bad growth precipitate we're going to see this go back and forth in your opinion over the next six weeks through the mid-terms and possibly into next year this latest situation could actual

and photos she posted on social media in 2014 and 2015 show her with rick santelli tore um, bobby jindaltt walker, all future 2016 psidential ndidates. both jindal and walker sayingju they wer ordinary photo ops. the faeb said bbi said she work establish a relationship with an organization, later known as national rifle association. >> the basic for any freedom, of course, is gunrights. >> in a tweet one day after the 2016 election, torshin boasted he and butina were the only lifetime members of the nra from russia. the nra, a major supporter of president trump during the campaign, has not responded to our request for comment. a this is area where we have deep concern. not only in terms of the nra as a potential back channel butnv also to iestigate and ensure the russians weren't funneling money through the nra. >> in 2016a butin bragged about being partru of the t campaign's communions with russia. a year before she pressed then candidate trump about russian sanctions. >> do you want tcontinue the politics of sanctions that are damaging both economy, or you have any other ideas? >> i do

members >>well, look, i think all i can say is when i look at so far what we've had -- >> get to rick santelli this morning. the dow is up a point or two rick, i would love to get your thoughts on what kudlow said about the yield curve. >> you know, it's fascinating because, to me, the issue with the yield curve, i've looked at 3 month to 5, 10, any permutation. but that isn't the issue the issue is policy and distortions. whether it's quantitative easing or programs like the twist the notion of our central bank using the markets to implement policy, distorting rates, to some extent, managing rates. that's the issue it isn't what part of the curve you look at. how to explain the entire curve. investors may panic if you get small inversions between 5s and 10s, 7 and 10s so to me, the issue isn't what part of the curve you pick, it's the notion with the detorsions it would complicate matters for the fed and exaggerate the notion of balance sheet inventory. and, to that end, if we look at what is going on one week of two continues to march. here we sit now with 26 1 for 10 year it's easy this cou