first, rick santelli, what are first, rick santelli, what are you watching today first, rick santelli are you watching hi. this is the man that's going to check your eyes grandma. cognizant ai solutions are helping healthcare companies advance diagnostics and prevent blindness in patients with diabetes. everything looks good. you have beautiful eyes. ♪ >>> let's get over to the cme and check in with rick santelli for the santelli exchanges >> gorod morning, carl all yields are definitely under the microscope there's a lot of anomalies the pit is keeping a close eye as well. when i look at the differential between two years, 340 basis points, tense versus tense how to get these closer together, what long term implications for capital are, long term implications trying to procure dollars to go on the good side of the diverging trade, the u.s. economy. even with slight deterioration, everything is a spread relationship the divergence between us and china, we have gone down a bit, they seem to sometimes go down more as jay powell talked about last night, many have commented and most of my

rick santelli. >>> welcome back, everybody, to "squawk on the street.glquintinilla d faber at post 9 at the new york stock exchange, sara has the day off. the dow is down 112 as we watch walmart and powell and brexit and china and more our road map begins with this debate over the health of the economy and what it means for stocks powell cease global worries on the horizon but we got strong numbers out of walmart what's the real growth story >> brexit backlash the pound plummeting, several of theresa may's cabinet resign we'll bring you up to speed. >>> and we have warren buffett's latest holding they reveal a new stake in j.p. morgan why he's betting big on the banks. >> stocks are lower amid growth worries and continued declines in technology. fed chair jay powell says the economy remains strong but ceses krj si concerning signs after a global slowdown take a listen. >> we don't see much of course, we hear a lot from businesses about higher costs, about loss of markets. we see a rising chorus of concern. in theory you could see slower growth to the ex

rick santelli has "the santelli ex change. rick >>> thanks, jon.low interest rates for so long, what ultimately happens is we created a world of complicated but very profitable trades you could generically call them carried trades with low interest rates there are so many ways to find finance structures that benefit the fact you could borrow at different places around the globe really cheap and then by converting to different currencies to invest in different areas and sectors, your goal was you could make much more in your trading position than the carry was on the borrowed structures that got you to capital to do it. but the problem is ultimately monetary policy started to get a little firmer. and it wasn't only that. it was long periods of low volatility so basically you had redemptions that were the cause of much of the volatility, investors just wanted out along with tighter monetary policy as we continued to see just look at the difference between bunds and ten-year notes. at various points around the globe the carried trades started to deter

see you in a few. >>> for now, let's get to the cme in chicago, rick santelli has the santelli exchange thanks, jon i couldn't help but think i saw a judge by that cool helicopter, remind me of ben bernanke, helicopter ben, dropping money into the economy that's what my topic is today. many are looking towards the fed as one of the big risks in the economy. it makes perfect sense and that's what investors do it doesn't mean that worry always effects or investing is the high priority concern, but it is always lingering what's interesting today is post fed day where there really weren't any surprises, but as many have pointed out, maybe there was a surprise, by acting so bland in the face of volatility of a major order recently in the rearview mirror not being mentioned. maybe that is important. i can tell you there's always rhythm to the markets with regard to certain big data points, like employment reports and fed meetings, and we saw that to some extent. sometimes there are conflicting signals, but for the most part rates roast, the curve flat end. now twos, threes, fives are all stil

rick santelli. road map begins with crude getting crushed again as it dives deep interbesbee into bea territory. >> and stocks falling but still on pace for solid weekly gains a look at where to put your money to work is straight ahead. >>> and shares of disney are rising at its profits soars, getting a boost from its studio business where is bob iger saying he's investing big? that's coming up >>> first up, markets are lower today, dow is down triple digits, down for the first time in five days as we said, oil falling deeper into bear territory, down 20%. investor ron baron joined cnbc and said he sees more growth ahead from stocks. >> i think the stock market will reflect the economy. i think in ten years the stock market will double, the gdp will double, stock market will doubl double that's what the stock market is going to do. >> the gobhappy friday b baron's time line is literally 50 years we tried to pin him down on a tighter cycle. where do you see in the market now that we're getting warm i

a huge hour for you straight ahead. >> rick santelli has got jolts hey, rick. >> absolutely.ssed that 7 million threshold so that's the new benchmark to pay attention to for the series going back to 2000 the september read holds to 7 million again. 7 million 9,000. it's the one that has been revised higher from 7.316 million to 7.293 million so, these things are really off the charts and just to show you how off the charts they are, we finished and the summary for jolts was 5.66 million. we have really extended. it looks as though the market and treasuries hasn't moved much on it but pretty close to high yield. sara, back to you. >> rick, thank you that plays into the election today. let's get to steve liesman with the new survey election style. >> yeah, sara, we ran a survey to see how the market is priced. no surprise, nine% said they retain the house and senate. and 14% saying both house us and 7% say dems take both houses let's look at expected policy changes for those who think it's a split congress number one, the thing they think could happen is infrastructure number t

. >> let's head over to rick santelli at the bond pit in chicago.ood morning sara if we look at yields, it is mix. 10-yr is hovering very close unchanged. if you look at one week of two-yr, you get the idea harbau you can see the way we rounded off and we start to level off. that could have some holiday features to it as most of the heavy lifting maybe done with regards to trade i know we had durable goods. i was there this morning at 8:30 eastern. if you look at what shows up the long end, it started before the numbers came out about 15 minutes before we did lose some of that horsepower a lot of talk obviously about what's going on in the credit markets and how unusual it is that the credit market was seeded in large part of equity it is the credit markets that send out signals that equitiy starts to get volatile etf is hovering at the lowest level since the fall of 2013 when i thought would be fascinating is isolate that date you can clearly see dhyg had a nasty time, too. there is a good reason for that. many are nervous that the investment pool

. >> let's get to rick santelli.ing yes, ahead of fed meeting and coupon supply and ahead of elections. it is going to be a big week look at the one week of 2-yr note yield they extended a little bit two days of tens, extended to 321. it has backed off just a bit as most of the yuan has look at the july start, yesterday backed away. they closed it at 3.45 and a half on friday that was a fresh high going back july of '14. they are still trading higher yield than what they had for their extreme last friday which was 340.5. the reason i bring it up the yuan has been ultra firm in terms of its yield and now we switch yield to the dollar yuan, it has rallied a little bit against the dollar everyone thouen though the dollar is rising we want to pay attention to that finally a lot of issues regarding brexit and a lot of issues in europe regarding merkel and looking at chancellor ship the pound is no doughbt, it hasa nice start carl, jim, david, back to you. >> thank you very much rick santelli take a look at this morning's

thanks see you then >>> let's get to the cme, rick santelli has the santelli exchange rick >> thanks,'s a lot of uncertainty in the marketplace. we at cnbc and our guests talk of it all the time sometimes there's really big what ifs we need to concentrate on most. the biggest what if is if wages push higher than productivity, that's a biggie. on friday's report, saw year over year wages up 3.1%, i had on the former chairman of the council of economic advisers under george w. bush, and he framed it in that regard wages moving up is a great thing as long as productivity keeps up with it. the problem is that if we continue to get good wage numbers in the future, it is not what if. many investors trade it as though it will it will push higher than productivity because produck tift - productivity takes time to get the metrics right. i think that's a big deal. it presents both an issue that will price something not as accurately as they could but also afford investors a wonderful opportunity. the other what if is similar, it has to do with central banking and our fed and that is what if the

more winners and losers coming up first, rick santelli, what are you watching >> the long end of they market has given us many clues on recent firmness in rates. we're going to talk about a floor favorite, the knob spread. meat is it meat is it co back afteare costs, which means you may have to pay for the rest. that's where medicare supplement insurance comes in: we'll talk about it. might be the right choice for you. a free decision guide is a great place to start. call today to request yours. so what makes an aarp medicare? well, these are the only medicare supplement plans endorsed by aarp and that's because they meet aarp's high standards of quality and service. you're also getting the great features that any medicare supplement plan provides. for example, with any medicare supplement plan you may choose any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. you can even visit a specialist. with this type of plan, there are no networks or referrals needed. also, a medicare supplement plan goes with you when you travel anywhere in the u.s. a free decision guide will provide a bre

. >>> first, rick santelli, what are you watching >> the bids were busy after the number, now they settledn. we talk to former chairman of degege. shl on economic advisers unr or wbu with some surprises in today's employment report. we'll hit them all after the break. (indistinguishable muttering) that was awful. why are you so good at this? had a coach in high school. really helped me up my game. i had a coach. math. ooh. so, why don't traders have coaches? who says they don't? coach mcadoo! you know, at td ameritrade, we offer free access to coaches and a full education curriculum- just to help you improve your skills. boom! mad skills. education to take your trading to the next level. only with td ameritrade. >>> it is now time for a special santelli exchange on jobs friday let's get out to rick santelli at the cme rick >> well, thank you and i would like to welcome ed lazear i always look forward to talking to you after all the big employment reports this one was big real quickly up two-tenths on employment to population and labor force participation rate i always think those are super

thank you, rick santelli >>> more on the dramatic tech selloff just ahead stay with us (toni vo) 'twasight before christmas, and all thro' the house. not a creature was stirring, but everywhere else... there are chefs, bakers and food order takers. doctors and surgeons and all the life savers. the world is alive as you can see, this time of the year is so much more than a bow and a tree. (morgan vo) those who give their best, deserve the best. get up to a $1,000 credit on select models now during the season of audi sales event. i cowe can do theyour screening at her house. hi. this is the man that's going to check your eyes grandma. cognizant ai solutions are helping healthcare companies advance diagnostics and prevent blindness in patients with diabetes. everything looks good. you have beautiful eyes. ♪ >>> here's what's coming up top of the hour. where's the bottom stocks under heavy selling pressure today we are debating whether we are close to the end of the pull back >>> tech bouncing off lows this hour finally time to buy beaten down faang names? john and pete have unusual activi

rick santelli here i'd like to welcome my guest, mark summerhill. >> thank you very much for having me, rick. >> you know, two topics i want to hit with you, i want to hit the economy and the fed. i think we need to start with the economy. after the great jobs report, a couple of things sink in growth in the labor force is a big plus and a rise in employment to population and labor force participation rates, which means we're pulling in people we stopped counting can you talk about that and how the fed may interpret those statistics >> no, absolutely. first of all, the economy is great right now. what we're getting that is not discussed very much is a very strong supply side response. so over the last year, we've created 2.7 million new jobs at the same time, 2.3 million new people have come into the labor force. so about 85% of those new jobs have been covered by an increase in labor supply. and so that is allowing the economy to grow rapidly without putting a lot of pressure or creating imbalances that would make the fed go faster than they alread

jim grant. >>> let's get over to the cme group and check in with rick santelli, get the santelli exchangeood morning, rick. >> good morning, carl. i would like to welcome my guest, peter tchur let's get into the hottest topic, credit markets. you said something in your most recent writing you said credit not leading. that is huge credit has been actually super well behaved outside of about the last week and a half so i put it to you directly. why are equities marching first in this parade, really backwards to history >> really is an equity valuation story. the other thing is i think there are issues with some credits what's happening is you're seeing companies address those issues you're seeing dividend cuts, talk about less stock buybacks so they're repaying bonds. that's what's happening here as companies will protect shareholder value in the long term by addressing any credit concerns credits will be more stable than equities this time around but also gives us real hope this will find a bottom in equities and be able to rebound at some point. this is not a systemic problem like we had

the latest fund manager survey rick santelli on the impact of the rising dollar on corporate profits.deangelis on crude's collapse dom, we begin with you and the growing pessimism apparently among managers >> there are fund managers by bank of america, merrill lynch are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the investment environment. and this pretty much encapsulates their view of things this is from michael hartnett. he's the bank of america avalanche plch chief investment strategist he says that we remain bearish as investor positioning does not yet signal the big low in asset markets. that may not be a good sign. we can see more weakness ahead based on his view, michael hartnett at b of a the fund manager survey looks at a few different things but here are some of the highlights there cash balances actually fall. that's a bullish sign. that means on the pullback managers deploy month cash buying cheaper prices in the month of october that may be a good sign. nearly 1/3 of all of the respondents in the survey say that the market has actually peaked maybe not a good sign there. al

carl, jim, david, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you very much >> top performance names arconica a moment ago was number three dow is down at 56. at&t provides edge-to-edge intelligence, covering virtually every part of your retail business. so that if your customer needs shoes, & he's got wide feet. & with edge-to-edge intelligence you've got near real time inventory updates. & he'll find the same shoes in your store that he found online he'll be one happy, very forgetful wide footed customer. at&t provides edge to edge intelligence. it can do so much for your business, the list goes on and on. that's the power of &. & if your customer also forgets socks! & you could send him a coupon for that item. -we have the power -to make a difference, right now. we have the power to make sure everyone has clean water. to provide access to education for all. -to rid the world of aids, -once and for all. we have the power. to choose to include. to create clean energy. to raise capital. and be fearless entrepreneurs. to understand different perspectives. we stand behind all our partners work

. >>> now over to cmo to rick santelli and the santelli exchange rick >> thanks, jon i like to welcomeguest on fed day i would normally say fed wednesday but it is thursday vincent reinhart, thank you for joining me this fed day. >> thanks for having me, rick. >> all right there's very little doubt in anybody's mind that this particular tightening cycle, whether we look at our fed or central banks is unique in every way. we are pulling back from types of liquidity we never put forth. do you agree with that >> no question about it. central banks dig deep into the tool kit of unconventional policy and what they found is it was easier to start them than to end them the fed is in motion, shrinking the balance sheet, motion with policy rates, is going to take the ecb another year and bank of japan longer after that, but they've got a long way to go >> i don't mean this as insult to investors, but i think over the years investors have gotten a bit lazy central banks around the world are leading investors to make sure in their opinions that liquidity alleviates post crisis ills now we have al

. >> thank you very much, rick santelli.we come back, fit bit getting a much-needed lift after operating profits did surprise the street. watching to see if we can get a third day in a row here on the dow as we are awaiting let's begin. yes or no? do you want the same tools and seamless experience construction spending in about construction spending in about ten minutes. construction spending in about ten minutes. what about a dedicated service team of trading specialists? did you say yes? good, then it's time for power e*trade. the platform, price and service that gives you ou need. looks like we have a couple seconds left. let's do some card twirling twirling cards e*trade. the original place to invest online. checkout is at 4pm. plenty of time to enjoy your ride. (bicycle bell sound) ♪ ♪ (bicycle bell sound) ♪ ♪ (bicycle bell sound) ♪ ♪ explore more with a guaranteed 4pm checkout at over 1,000 fine hotels and resorts. it's another way we've got your back. ♪ ♪ the platinum card from american express. don't live life withou

. >> citi had some -- as the dow tries to go green, let's get to rick santelli in chicago. >> good morningek of tens. we basically have a double top around the 323 area. we touched it yesterday. 323.5 closed there. open the chart up to early may. you can see the twin peaks there. what is always fascinating, treasury traders love double tops. it's one of the key reversal patterns. sometimes it works for a while. sometimes it works for a long while. here is a fly in the ointment. let's look at same day for 30-year bonds. doesn't look like the double top. you can see all maturities backed away. it really under scores something. last fed meeting was 26th of september. let's look at 30s minus tens. you can see it was at 13 last fed meeting. it is a 20 now. it is definitely widening. many traders look to the 30 year to give them a tip of the hat as to which direction they should trend trade. 30s look a bit more aggressive to the upside than tens. in the cycles we always get leading up to fed meetings. this might give us a chance to break away, maybe lower. that is what traders are thinking right

. >> apple sized by 2030 >> all right >>> to the bond market rick santelli tracking the action from thef the cme group out there. rick >> everybody excited about 20 minutes, we'll have the fed decision even though many may not expect any rate decision, it's always exciting, and the markets actually have had interesting movement it's all agent the short end versus the long end. if you look at the longer end, tens are down two. 30s are down two tens minus twos for two weeks. opened it up since the last meeting and you can clearly see we're only within three basis points of where we started it's been a long journey even more extreme. if you take the 30 year versus the ten year, the two week chart and zoom it out to the last fed meeting, you see the real issue is the short end keeps powering ahead. that's important and it gives us a sentiment of investors of the fed and their future plans embedded, the short end is going to remain firm and the dollar index always going into the fed meetingto have a reaction. it popped off the midterm lows it's up three quarters of a cent from that level. ba

. >> fascinating look forward to hearing a lot more and sirius xm let's get to rick santelli >> goodyields are up, dow are up. three basis points on 30 30-yr really have been the most solid. looking at a two-day of tens what was most lyanne expected cpi read from top to bottom did ultimately gi usve us a little lift it has cleared the zone, 3.45-ish definitely a possibility and although treasuries have been in tight ranges if we look at ours verses there, europe verses the u.s., it is at a historic 354 basis points and 10 minus 10s, when y you contemplate andthink of ho much lower rates are in europe and the notion they may be into stimulus considering some of the gp numbers receiving out of the best economies, that most likely weaken the euros the notion of carry trades, who's expensive and should some of the volatility and the equity markets dissipate a little bit that is most likely will result in a dollar index that continues to be rather firm. finally let's look at what's going on with the dollar one week of the dollar index says it all. basically we come off 17-month highs and

. >> i don't know how you keep it straight sometimes, rick santelli >>> as we go to break, look at theforming movers on the s&p today. nvidia is no doubt the biggest laggard, about an 18% decline. but over the past six weeks down about 44%. for decades banks have been getting away with it. charging you excess fees. making you wait in line. keeping billions of dollars of your interest. they've been treating you like you're lucky to have them. that's not right. show them who's the boss of your money. you. better is out there. ally. do it right. but you can't. at cognizant, we're helping today's leading media companies create more immersive ways to experience entertainment with new digital systems and technologies. get ready, because we're helping leading companies lead with digital. >>> seeing some buyers step in here dow is down 13 points but we're watching facebook closely, still below 140 as they takes you close to the lowest levels since the spring of last year. we're back in a moment but everywhere else... there are chefs, bakers and food order takers. doctors and surgeons and all t

let's get to the bond pits as well rick santelli is at the cme group. rick. >> reporter: good morning, carl. rates weren't open but they have continued to melt a bit. if you look at october 15 start to two-year note yields you'll see that they have turned from their 297 cycle high close going back ten years, that high occurred on the 8th, and it's given up about 8, 9 basis points here if you continue to look at the rest of the curve, let's look at an early september start to 10-year. what's important here is that we've slipped about 7, 8 basis points from recent cycle highs what we've left in our wake is a double top does that mean that's the double top? most likely not. however, it does mean a bit of a reprieve from some of the rates moving higher. that seems to fit quite well with the recent volatility in the equity markets dollar index it has given up a little today and with the market's closure yesterday it really took off as you see. it took off to levels that we haven't seen since june of 2017. if you open the charts and the dollar index up to the

. >>> let's get to cma and rick santelli hi, rick. >> good morning, thank you with the fed meeting this3 billion in coupon supply sta three year and then 10s and 30s, other areas are underscored. it's debt and deficits, of course, but the notion of the dollar and how strong it's been. consider at the end of last year we were just a little bit above 92 basically up about 4%. but that isn't really the whole dollar story at the beginning of the year when rates came out of the chute really hot and so did the equity markets until we had the period of volatility in february, the dollar, well, it started to plummet. as a matter of fact its low around 88.5 in february. if you consider we are up close to 10% from that level that's probably a better gauge as to how the effects of a strong dollar in a global economy saturated with debt with the plan, it shouldn't be any shock that the dollar is strong. logistics get in the way big positions and how they're accumulated in the convention at wisdom of the dollar has to be strong put it down at the lows in february, but the way it's come back undersco

back to you. >> rick, thank you rick santelli. >>> coming up, wall street's wild week, key take aways how they are setting up for next week and the mid-term elections. ♪ ♪ protect sensitive data from millions of kinds of malware, with a cloud that's secure to the core. the ibm cloud. the cloud for smarter business. the ibm cloud. hey, what are you guys doing here? we're voya. we stay with you to and through retirement. so you'll still be here to help me make smart choices? well, with your finances that is. we had nothing to do with that tie. voya. helping you to and through retirement. ♪ >>> a we'll be right back on wall street. despite the swings, all the major averages are up more than 2% for the week, even though it doesn't feel that way. dom physical chu is here with three key take aways domenic. >> we're in the process right now. some of the things we are looking for in terms of the key take aways in this market revolve around sentiment indicators or parts of the markets that could show how the broader markets will fair in the coming days and weeks, given i elections, trade and e

." >>> let's get to the bond market rick santelli tracking the action >> good morning. or good afternoon, i should say. the treasuries have been really firm not so much today. look at intraday 30. we extended, almost reached 3.43 look at one week of 30 year. it still looks pretty lofty. it has been the solid performinger performer. if you open up to the beginning of october, it really jumps out at you, how firm it's been why is it weakening a bit today? look at the dollar index look at a two day. it's down down 7/8 cents let's get to the punch line. maybe both these markets are down because tomorrow we have the big employment report. it has fed implications, whether it's wages, hours worked, all of that plays in. so we'll continue to monitor, but at this point, the dollar index may be holding 96, but it certainly is getting there darn quick. >> rick santelli, thank you. >>> it has been a wild three months for tesla's stock it soared after the funding secure tweet, sunk as the s.e.c. investigated you may look what elon musk is working ron right now. we'll tell you about

. >>> to the bond market we go rick santelli. >> the treasury is paying attention to stocks.uncing around a bit it's bouncing around levels that we saw in october. two day 30s trying to hold yesterday's low yield range and it's doing the best job that other maturities have lost a little ground versus yesterday, although the rally in stocks has helped if you look at a mid september start to 10s, the 308 bottom we had is what many people are focusing on along with the double top if you use the date for barclays high yield index, what you'll see is a much different performance and "the wall street journal" had a good article about that big tech flyers don't have a lot of high yields maybe that signal is a bit broken finally, let's look at one week of the pound versus the dollar a whole lot of volatility. melissa lee, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you. >>> california's largest utility, pg&e being sued shares down 26% today losing half the valuein the past five days aditi roy is live with the very latest. >> hi there, melissa two suits that we know one was filed by two doze

thanks very much larry glazer, kenny polcari and rick santelli, happy thanksgiving to you. >> still to come on "closing bell." one thing airlines are particularly happy for, that could signal upside for the year end. we'll tell you what it is next. >> later facebook's mark zuckerberg striking back against critics. ahead we'll analyze his defense and the challenges that investors might still be concerned about with the stock and you can reach out to the show on facebook, on twitter or accepted us an e-mail. "closing bell" will be back after a break with the dow up 137 points obvious. sometimes, they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group - how the world advances. ♪ this is moving day with the best in-home wifi experience and millions of wifi hotspots to help you stay connected. and this is moving day with reliable service appointments in a two-hour window so you're up and running in no time. show me decorating shows. this is staying connected with xfinity

management strategist and steve grasso, director of institutional sales at stewart franco and rick santellie cme. welcome to all of you this afternoon. phil, i'll start with you. >> yes. >> your reaction to the comment from steve cohen could we be seeing a recession on the horizon >> we agree with half of that. we do agree we're in late cycle, but bear markets are pretty rare and happen for defined reasons they happen if commodities spike or if the fed is way too aggressive or valuations are at extremes like the dotcom bubble and then they happen because of recession, right so for us recession is still not a base case. it's a tail risk, okay, but there's two risks in late cycle. the first one is the we're seeing over the past month, holding an asset that goes down in vamp the bigger risk in late cycle that only happens in late cycle is when you think a recession is going to happen over the next year, and this cycle lasts for two years, and then you're leaving a lot of money on the table, right? so we would agree with the right sizing of risk in the late cycle. we've reduced equities we're n

>> thank you, rick santelli. as we head to noon a look at shares of ge rebounding today. >> they're up about 7% baker hughes, ge up about 3% after news they'll sell out sooner than expected >> nvidia also bouncing. but for now to scott wapner and "the half. >>> jon, thanks. i'm scott wapner welcome to "the halftime report." we are live from the annual global financial leadership conference down here in naples, florida. we're going to begin with a special interview, an exclusive, especially timely, given what's been going on in the markets lately and in particular how apple has been trading the world's most valuable publicly traded company under a lot of pressure, as you know, lately we're pleased to welcome in one of the company's founders, steve wozniak, is with us today, as i said, live and exclusively nice to see you again. >> nice to be here >> you are still an apple employee, employee number one, employed by the company, an apple shareholder. what do you make of what's been going on in the stock lately and h

. >>> let's get over to the cme now and rick santelli for "the santelli exchange. >>> good morning andnk you there were two things at the beginning of the year i thought would be important to pay very close attention to the first was that we're going to draw more of the uncounted, unemployed, back into the workforce, and that has occurred and it's key the other issue is divergence. divergence is a complicated one. the u.s. economy on a number of fronts is doing better than the rest of the world on those same fronts now, remember, the economy and the markets are correlated, they rhyme, they shadow box, but they aren't the same. one of the big features this year is whether chairman powell is the antagonist of all investors in a capitalist usa. is he going to slow the economy? is he making a mistake by boosting rates, grabbing more insurance for a slowdown hey, we'll have to leave that one to history but at least at this point there are key issues we can resolve. we have been talking how the russell is on a death cross, the crossing of the 258 moving averages that's a market indicator not

rick santelli standing by at the cme. >> all right, joe, you sitting down be careful here.ws an unrevised 0.2% so we basically tripled it if you think it stops there, you're wrong take out food and energy it's up 0.5% also following unrevised up 0.2%. and we were expecting up 0.2% for both let's get into the nitty-gritty. ex-food energy and trade, it is up 0.2% as expected. and that metric is half of the last look at up 0.4% how about some year over year final demand 2.9% popping into the cycle highs. if you look at year over year ex-energy, 2.6% also besting the the 2.5% last look the only metric here on year over year that isn't a little more or even a lot more hot than our last look is ex-food an energy, ex-trade year over year. that's up 2.8% our last read was 2.9% so these are definitely elevated, but of course cpi, different part of the pipeline of inflation maybe more important but we actually did get a pop here he popped a basis point on the 10-year note from 3.21% to 3.22%. the short end, 2.95% to 2.96%. so we want to completely monitor this this one's going to be

. >>> to the bond report rick santelli. > one week of 30-year bonds seven straight sessions of lower yields on the close, this would be number eight. it's down two basis points look at a september 4th start of ten-year, what a top it has all the perfect traits of a top. now the over and under is which side of 3% we may close out 2018. a big day today, dollar index. look at the intraday and one-week chart the way it rounded out holding the 96-level the end of october, what's interesting is we've only had two closes above 97 since basically june of 2017 that was the comp we had when we reached that high of 97 .54. we're close to that level and once again the momentum of the dollar index seems to come alive when it gets around that 97 handle dom, back to you >> thank you, rick apple one of the major factors in the selloff today it's the biggest drag on the dow right now. shares sliding into that 20% fall area. what's that's a major downgrade by goldman sachs. we have the details after this quick break. hi, kids! i'm carl and i'

works itself out >> stacy, thanks for your time >> thank you >>> and to the bond market we go rick santellick >> hi, tyler fascinating day. if you believe treasury yields, give you insight into the scale or sustainability of the current growth in the economy, it tells us something today there was virtually no volatility during president trump's statements and, of course, played havoc, mostly to the upside with stock market look for yourself. here's an intra day of two-note yields and realize the drop was around the vice chairman was having an interview with steve liesman. certainly, we would think that mr. clarida and mr. powell would be paying attention to any types of signs of slowing or divergence in the growing economy and they somewhat acknowledged that. look at the intra day of ten year down 11 on the week, down a dozen on the week on two-year notes. but not a lot of volatility based on trump's statements regarding china and tariffs. if you open up the chart for the end of september, you can see what is moving it. we're looking at that middle point there that closed right around 308 t

rick santelli tracking the action at the cme. yesterday was not good how about today, rick? >> yesterday was good, today was strange. i gave it a b as in boy. it was a good auction. we have two reopenings this is the initial first offering but here's where it gets a little peculiar. 3.209 was the yield, indeed, that was lower on the one inssse market that's all good. 73.8 indirect. >> that is off the charts powerful the best since february 11th and among the highest i've ever seen here's writ gets weird, direct fitters, what are they pensions, primary dealers, insurers, banks, governments, 1.2. 1.2. i have a database going back to 2002, i could not find a lower number than that indeed, that was a low number. that was the reason the grade was taken off. primary dealers take 25% but all in all, on pricing and on the indirect, it was a stellar action "b" for boy tomorrow we finish up with 30-year bonds. back to you. >>> coming up, more on the mid-terms and your money we will look at the key issues affecting the stockmarket and stocks are higher today. are they ready to rally no

. >>> let's take this conversation to the bond market rick santelli tracking the action at the cme groupago. >> if you look at the two day of two years, it looks pretty downsidish rates have dropped, prices have gone up. one week, down four on the day, we're still up two on the week, which is common on the short maturities the long end, you look at a chart of ten years since the end of september, we have a double top at 223, down five on the day, two on the week dollar index having a stellar week, as you see on this chart we are close to the 97 handle, which would mean we're close to testing levels once again that we haven't seen since june of 2017 tyler? back to you. >> richard, thank you very much. i assume his name was richard. >>> coming up, the cracks are getting bigger in the luxury real estate market frank is live at the most expensive mansion to ever hit the block. robert >> tyler, the market is being flooded with mega mansions the prices sitting on the market for years. this one and many others are headed to the auction block. we will tell you what this could sell for and what i

rick santelli is tracking all the action. >> reporter: the treasure's have woken up to the market volatilityge correction at the end of last week and even today, deterioration, look at a two year note yield, hovering at the lowest closing yield laeflz since september 13. one week of tens just slightly deteriorating every day. last week was much larger deterioration hovering at the lowest closing yield since the 27th of september. but if you look at a 30 year bond, let's start the turn on the 25th of october, the 26 had a low of 331, they are holding up the best on the long end should it violate 331 in a closing basis, look for acceleration there. you can really see how well the third year is performing. it is now the steepest since around the 27th of march and 30s minus ten is the steepest, widest since around march 8th. investors still have some good purchasing power of a good yield on the long end of the market and will continue to monitor should they come in and actually push that final maturity below some of its breakout levels from last month. tyler, back to you. >> thank you so much. >

investors fleeing to quality what the quality stocks and what does it mean for the market overall in rick santelli has be - mike santelli is looking closer at that. >> the quality stocks and wall street jargon are businesses that have high profit margins not dependent on the overall economic growth rate and low debt levels. strong cash flow, not leveraged and they have defensive properties if you want to look at stocks that are near 52-week highs think of mcdonald's, starbucks walmart is up there, lots of health care. health care is the best performing sector this year, up more than 11% year-to-date the question really is, what does it tell us about the market's character going into year end well, it does tell us that a lot of the fears of potentially peak growth rates and financial tightening by the fed and just by the markets are wearing on investor preferences right now, and they're kind of hunkering down in some of these names that seem like they can ride things out. it doesn't mean it's predict iv of a worse market environment but you see this when volatility remains high these are not value

. >> even though you really disagree >>> let's get to the bond market and rick santelli is tracking theif you look at a two-year note yield, buoyancy is a good word because that's been bouyant in the face of equity. we are hovering in between the twin peaks at a level just above 3%, high close of the year, 3.24-ish behavior, not so well for the etfs expressed in the lqd investment grade, hovering at the lowest levels since the fall of 2014. what's so fascinating, if you look at a barclay's investment grade index from the same period 2013, we're nowhere near as wide as we've been. and you can look at the markets leading the credit >>> nfl scoring big time in the ratings. look just how long the experts were to how many people would tune in to watch the game in 2018. >>> dow hitting session highs at this hour, up 194 points stay with us ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ comfort. what we deliver by delivering. when it might be time to buy or sell? with fidelity's real-time analytics, you'll get clear, actionable alerts about potential investment opportunities in real time. fidelity. open an account today. >>> big-

>> to the bond market, rick santelli at the cme. >> reporter: you know the bond market for weeks, almost months, actually, has really refrained from some of the volatility means rates have held firm look at september 25th should we close here the lowest since the 1st of december that double top seems to be doing the trick, we could close at the lowest levels since the 29th of october should we stay at these levels. you see the two day but also the lowest yield close should we close here since the 29th of october. the dollar index as you see on this chart, it continues to basically staircase higher tyler, back to you >>> west texas crude on track to break a losing streak. could the worst be over for oil? we will tell you why oil may not be done slipping away. >>> welcome back to "power lunch. oil on pace to snap its losing streak jackie deangelis joining us now with a look at the issues causing the long decline what's going on? >> a long relief after a painful 12 days. we say these things don't move in a straight line people asked me, do you think it's over? i would say the numbers don't

. >> and rick santelli >> 230 >> ooh >> bold. >> playing price is right out there. >> we only have aboutthe number, but the selloff we saw in futures, was that directly linked to what eamon was telling us if that report from bloomberg was not correct, that the president did not say to go ahead and work up a trade deal, a trade pact, is that what took steam out of this? >> oh, i think it definitely had part to do with it but i think the equity markets would have had that same move anyway that was lot of pent up buying >> okay, rick. thank you. we're going to get back to everyone in a moment we have the futures for the nasdaq actually indicated negative at this point the dow up by about 210 points and we will send it over to ylan mui with the number. >> 250,000 jobs. payrolls rose by 250,000 jobs in october. the unemployment rate, unchanged at 3.7%. average hourly earnings, those were up 5 cents last month to $27.30 over the year, they're up 3.1% that is the biggest jump in wages since april 2009 as for revisions, september was revised downward by 16,000 jobs from 134 to 118. august's numb

. >>> we are just seconds away from weekly jobless claims and we want to get over to rick santelli he'sin chicago. sir, you got about three seconds. numbers, please. >> three, two, one -- buzzer please -- and the data says 214,000, which is down 1,000 although, if you have a good memory, you remember it was 214,000 last thursday. indeed it was, we've upgraded that to 215. on continuing claims, just slightly lower, 1.36 million to 1.633 million. the index, getting its mojo back after the markets yesterday, obviously, the equities had a big response to midterms dollar index was hit back a bit. you saw many asian and market currencies rallying throughout the week against the dollar reversing 2018 trends but it is now back up against 96 which seems to be a litmus test for bull and bear territory. as we, of course, await not necessarily anything with regard to fed action, but the statement offering inclusion at 2019 or for those who think that maybe december is not on the table, probably will dispel some of those thoughts. andrew, back to you. >> rick, thank you >>> we want to get to steve l

. >>> let's get to the cme group for the santelli exchange. good morning, rickmorning, carl. many equity traders and traders outside the interest rate complex, i will try the treasury second quarter to sector have been disappointed with equities. makes sense. to some extent high yield, investment especially. i know the security side on the spreads have widened but maybe not to the extent of past widenings that should have caused that. we see in various areas of the market over the last several weeks. there's a good reason to think, in my opinion, at least for 2018, that the high rates may be in place what does that do for the other markets? my cornerstone of making that statement. keeping track of open interest by speculators since the mid-'90s and pursuant to an article i wrote over the weekend reuters said the third largest, drops of interest in that time period that they've collecting data that's pretty huge there's a technical aspect to this ten-year charts since the end of september. we have a double top we've talked about that. and the double top has taken

quick break with the dow up 152 points >>> let's get over to the cme group and get the santelli exchange good morning, rick>> good morning, carl. you know, what a couple of weeks it's been. actually from october 1st on it's just been a wild ride you, the viewers and listeners on radio understand that all too well but yet sometimes we always look for reasons and we don't necessarily know if the reasons we end up with for the volatility or the market odds are the correct ones but in my opinion a lot of this continues to have to do with central banks. so i call it the counterfactuals of the liquidity exit, or lexit. one of the main issues that i see is something we've talked about almost every day for 2018, and that is divergence but divergence really falls in that counterfactual category because for all practical purposes as we look at the behavior of all the central banks and look at the behavior of the markets and their economies associated therein, so we pull out europe, we look at what's going on in china, we look at what's going on with japan, we look at the u.s., is it any surprise to anyone that there