the half jon, 15 away see you then. >> looking forward to that, scott. >>> let's get to the cme rick santellichange rick >> good morning, thanks, jon i look at the board, 173.10, couple of basis points away from the lowest november for tens couple basis points lower than we're trading, on top of pretty good data. i understand there's top tier data, and there's the rest of the data to me, we could make put advance good trade balance in, doesn't excite everybody, that was a good number. 66.5 billion, it was a deficit, but still the smallest since may of 2018. new home sales today, diana was excited about it, she pointed out it was massive revision and she was right. that put last month at 738,000 which you usurped to 28,000 in june we're the last couple months at levels we haven't seen since july of 2007 but what happened? rates continue to melt, it isn't just here. we talked about it many times. global rates have a stencil. we could change the scale, maybe the chinese ten year is at 320, ours at 173, but for the most part many instruments of sovereign debt seem to move in the same fashion, hig

rick santelli. >>> still to come.taking place in jersey city with implications nationwide restrictions on home sharing companies like airbnb are on the line the mayor of jersey city joins us at post nine on the other side of the break. >>> mixed picture for ocstks dow up 28, stay with us. woman: my reputation was trashed online. i felt completely helpless. my entire career and business were in jeopardy. i called reputation defender. vo: take control of your online reputation. get your free reputation report card at reputationdefender.com. find out your online reputation today and let the experts help you repair it. woman: they were able to restore my good name. vo: visit reputationdefender.com or call 1-877-866-8555. >>> jersey city residents heading to the poll to vote on a measure to implement tighter regulations on companies like air bnb. joining us now to discuss mayor steven philip here at post nine. thanks for joining us. >> this is incredible. this has turned into quite a battle. and it's the way it's really be

. >>> first, rick santelli, what are you watching today >> there's been many calls that we are establishingime bottom in long dated treasuries, at wit has taken a long time th'shat we're going to talk about after the break. lions of g the recession. so, my wife kat and i took action. we started a non-profit community bank with a simple theory - give people a fair deal and real economic power. invest in the community, in businesses owned by women and people of color, in affordable housing. the difference between words and actions matters. that's a lesson politicians in washington could use right now. i'm tom steyer, and i approve this message. but when i started seeing things, i didn't know what was happening... so i kept it in. he started believing things that weren't true. i knew something was wrong... but i didn't say a word. during the course of their disease around 50% of people with parkinson's may experience hallucinations or delusions. but now, doctors are prescribing nuplazid. the only fda approved medicine... proven to significantly reduce hallucinations and delusions related to pa

bob pisani, to rick santelli in chicago. good morning, rick >> good morning, carl. on what bob pisani so accurately described. global negative interest rates, the pool of yields under zero has been shrinking global interest rates have been going up much of the policies and mario draghi's last couple of meetings seems to be on the outs with regards to finance ministers throughout europe. and, of course, there is a lot more talk bubbling up about more fiscal stimulus than some of the more aonies with regard to europe think germany here, potentially even france. and as some of these things start to work through the system, we are seeing an exodus of bond funds. look at 24-hour chart of ten-year note yields, long end down a basis point or two. 10s minus 2s hovering around 26. still only two basis points away from the steepest of 2019. look at end of july chart of 10s, we're basically hovering at near 15-week highs, last time we were at this level on ongoing closing basis was the end of july bunds, look at one week of bunds at levels we haven't seen since mid-july hoveri

chicago pmi due out in moments to add to the other data we got this morning to the bond pits, rick santellithe cme group in chicago. hi, rick. >> we have chicago coming up the charts here, we had very solid data this morning, whether it was preliminary read on durable goods, proxy for capital spending, or, of course, a couple of tenths revision over the 2% hump on gdp intraday ten, it popped the whole curve. look at the two-week of tens even though this is a nice pop, it is still a long way from getting back up towards the top of the range and finally if we look at what is going on with regard to a yield curve, not 10s to 2s, let's look at 30s minus 10s. that distance is really narrowing. right now, what we refer to as the knob, notes over bonds, approaching 40 basis points currently at 3443, the tightest since april. dollar index, we first walked in, down a bit, now close to up a fifth of a cent. one week of the dollar index, it is really powering ahead here. as we get into a thinner session. and finally looking at the dollar since mid-september, what is noteworthy here, we're 7/8 of a cen

let's get to rick santelli for the santelli exchange. sting day, rick. >> interesting day, interesting week year end will be more interesting. like to welcome dr. nathan cheats a deep rest anyway dr. sheets, thank you for joining me. >> pleasure to be here thank you. >> considering all of the areas within and outside government you worked in, i want to ask you the big question what do you think of global growth it seems as though the equity markets paint a picture there may be surprises, as i continue to monitor data, especially in europe and germany, specifically in japan, my hopes are diminished what are your thoughts >> we have a two track global economy right now, the manufacturing sector is quite weak services is hanging in there, central banks are to the rescue. as we look around the world, there are some spots of concern. i particularly share concern about the recent japanese data you know, they just had a consumption tax hike, and historically before the hikes they had booming quarters of growth the last quarter with the hike immi

morgan, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you. rough morning for retailers.t and kohl's both tanking. stay with us woman: my reputation was trashed online. i felt completely helpless. my entire career and business were in jeopardy. i called reputation defender. vo: take control of your online reputation. get your free reputation report card at reputationdefender.com. find out your online reputation today and let the experts help you repair it. woman: they were able to restore my good name. vo: visit reputationdefender.com or call 1-877-866-8555. >>> been watching shares of home depot and kohl's get hid heart courtney reagan joins us with the details. the calls did flesh things out >> they did. i just got off the phone for even more color. it's phil mcveil's first quarter as cfo of home depot he said we are absolutely not seeing softness with the consumer, we think the consumer is healthy and the houses environment is healthy and stable so what he said is today's lower guidance is only a reflection that the retailer is taking our time to roll out initiatives a

melissa lee, back to you >> rick santelli, thank you. the first public impeachment hearings are underway right now. we're getting reaction from the white house. ylan mui has the response. >> the white house now responding to these new revelations from bill taylor the acting u.s. ambassador to the ukraine. he had told lawmakers that one of his staffers overheard a phone conversation between president trump and the ambassador to the eu gordon sondland in which president trump mentioned, quote, the investigations and sondland said that the ukraine was ready to move forward now a white house spokesperson telling our eamon javers that the latest evidence is just an anonymous staffer who told someone he overheard someone else talking to potus on the phone. all the evidence in this case is hearsay. now, the impeachment inquiry hearing is ongoing and one of republicans' line of attacks is to try to prove that there was no quid pro quo. that the security aid to ukraine was released without any commitments of an investigation on the part of ukrain

>>> now let's get to the cme group in chicago rick santelli with the santelli exchange hey, rick. >> like to welcome my last guest of the week. jim bianco so much going on this week one thing i've always said if you really want to know what's going on in the market, keep half an eye on the fundamentals, keep the other on charts but the other on capital where's the money going and to that end, what do you think? >> the money is not going where everybody says it is you always hear there is no alternative of fear of mising out. you assume that means that money has to be flowing in the stock funds. that's not the case. and that's not been the case for several years now. >> well, when i look up at the board, it's very odd because the stock market not only is losing vol like everything, if you look at historic volatility close to close and to the fixed income space, it is really getting low. and stocks are starting to join that crowd but at lofty levels. so let's go to the white board you have a surprise for us what are we looking at here? >> we're looking at the total flows of etfs and mu

everywhere. >>> now rick santelli has a special edition of the santelli exchange good morning, rick.judy shelton. welcome. we've all paid chose attention yesterday to jay powell talking about monetary policy. i would like to hit on a couple of things. first are all, jim grant was my guest yesterday and he thinks like many of us do that there has been a stealth nationalization of the repo market i'd like to hear your thoughts on that and the notion that price discovery is so yesterday, like yesterday's mashed potatoes it seems as though whether it's the fed or the government or very essential banks, rates, markets, equities, corporate securities get pegged more than they get traded. your thoughts on those issues? >> well, i don't think people were really contemplating at the fomc meeting in september that the fed would beconducting basically open market operations to the tune of $60 billion a month with this new issue of wanting to have more reserves. we've heard before about an apple reserves environment but i now get the sense that $1.5 trillion which is 7 to 8 times more than is re

waiting for sector breakouts >> bob, thanks to the bond pits, rick santelli at the cme good morning, good morning, carl. you know, friday was the first day of the new month thursday was the end of a month. and markets were a bit messy many of my sources said there is a lot of end of the month here, especially exaggerated on the bond side. we had a good number on friday and really today is the day back where we have now seen fed meeting, we have seen the biggest data point in the month in the form of jobs. and here we are in november, and the equity markets are strong. there is a lot of variables, trade is one of them and talk about how it is progressing with china in phase one. no matter how you slice it, that has really had an outsource effect on what is going on in interest rates two day of 2s. up 4 basis points. we're up 4s and 2s, 5 and 5s, 6 and 7s, up almost 8 basis points in 30s 10s, not 7s and 30s curve is steepening. look at eight day chart of ten-year note yields we popped last week above the 180 level. we lost it as we went into fed and jobs numbers and here we are, coming

melissa, back to you >> let's go after the bond market and find out what's there with rick santelli hi, rick >> the minutes didn't really do much to change the market but in not changing it, there's quite a bit of info. look at the two year note you see it bouncing along the lows >> these are the minutes to the 29th and 30th. >> let's look at the end of september for 10 that low is 169 on the closing basis. if you look at the 30 year bonds, it's the same formation we're getting close to that area on 30 year bonds rates in the dollar look at the dollar same thing. those moves are dead, now we're coming back down and testing them there is not a lot of bounce in interest rates and the dollar is barely treading water. >> thank you very much let's get more from the fed minutes. welcome to both of you tom, i note in my notes that you say the bar is high for further rate cuts from the fed. >> well, the headlines earlier, the phase one trade deal may not happen if it happens until 2020 does that change the outlook for interest rate cuts at all in your view? >> i think it would. >> if the trade

dunk at current levels given those considerations >> thank you >>> to the bond market we go and rick santelli, rick >> hi. it was a big factor today. it was small one but here is what i look at yesterday they bottomed. if you look you can see that volatility is relatively low which is something to pay close attention to especially considering how yields have been sliding and finally let's look at two day chart of our ten-year versus boons you'll see 205 intraday low today. roughly 2009 now it will be the narrowest since february of 2018 >> thank you very much >>> coming up, twooewe'll talk housing with the ceo of redfin can that trend continue? a cnbc investigation uncovers nerelaon autw vetibo the real real our story comes right up on a scale of one to five? wait... one to five? when it comes to feelings, it's more like five million. there's everything from happy to extremely happy. there's also angry. i'm really angry, clive! actually, really angry. thank you. and seat 36b angry. you're clive owen. and you're barefoot. yeah... there's also apprehension... ...regret... ...relief. oh and ther

. >>> welcome back let's get over to cme and rick santelli for the santelli exchange hi, rick >> goodk you you know, i've had some interesting guests the last couple of days if you're an aficionado of rates there's nothing better than jim grant. and of course, with jay powell speaking everything and everything that is our fed and global central banks it was very fascinating to speak to the potential nominee for fed governship dr. judy shelton. one thing i garner is there is this new affection for lower rates by those that are running central banks. but in the end, economies and even investors simply aren't as enew mexicoered with lower rates as they used to be if you go back to the '80s and lows, and you mon volatility with the victor stocks as i traded general vault initials in options it was more sensitive with rise in yields. not so much the case not that they don't move higher when rates move higher but boy, do they rock up when rates move lower especially when they move lower quickly. here we see rates at 181 we're down 13 basis points from our recent high close. you look to euro

. >> bob, thanks bob pisani to the bond pits as well, check in with rick santelli. se to 1.95 hey, rick. >> it is i listened to what bob said and, you know, there is a refrain some people refer to this refrain toward the fed, some to the market, some to both on rates. lower for longer the cubs won a world series in 2016, carl and everybody thought there was going to be a dynasty. well, whenever i hear lower for longer, i somehow think of that notion lower for longer might not be what it is cracked up to be. just consider all these one week charts, which happen to also be month to date chart. two year note, 12 basis points on the week. ten year, up 22 basis points on the week along with a 30-year bond. yesterday many were talking about one of the most aggressive days since november 8, 2016, donald trump won the election. not quite. we hit a nice update yesterday, almost ten basis points on the long end but on that day, in november 2016, we closed up 20 basis points on the one section after election results bunds, bunds and gilts, look at the bund chart, the gilt, they

. >>> meantime, let's get the santelli exchange. rick cme good morning >> good morning, carl. once again, interest rates, they're acting almost as aggressive as stocks and definitely both are going hand in hand, and i have said this so many times, don't fear higher rates because in the correct pairing, it is like adding fuel to the fire. cross fertilization of higher rates and higher equity prices spreading. there was a time the u.s. was the center of the universe with regard to capital in flows we helped the rest of the world and europe and sluggish economies. but things are changing in europe remember, perception can become reality. there are still many question marks. sometimes the secret sauce makes all the difference eurozone security issuance is ramping up, sovereigns, corporates, along with that, rates are going with it. if you look at some charts, we're at 192 in yields haven't been there since early august the september 13 high close of 190. but it looks to me like europe may be leading the way let's look at bund charts, shall w

jon fortt in san francisco back to you. >> all right rick santelli.didn't warn them scott mentioned it, i'm mentioning it again. in 15 minutes, don't miss leon cooperman on the halftime report today at noon. never shy about giving his opinions urat's coming up in the next n't go anywhere. we're back after a quick break >>> welcome back to "squawk alley. abolishing political ads on social media that's not the issue the federal election commission is interested in. micro targeting is where real problems lie federal election commission chair ellen wine traub joins us now. in terms of this, what are they targeting and what is the problem? >> micro targeting is when you get an individual ad in your feed designed based on all of the analytics that platforms have available that they gathered about you that allows advertisers to target the ad to your exact susceptibilities. the problem is that it is the equivalent of somebody whispering in the ear of voters a slightly different message targeted for them, there's no audience, no one there to counteder act the

big hour coming up, jameie dimon and hedge fund ray dalio to rick santelli rick >> we are expecting ismefinitely better than anticipated. 54.7 of course this is an october read and it now turns out to be the best since august, which was 56.4 but here's the important thing, 52.6 last month, september's with was the lowest since august of 2016. to have this additional lift is psychologically beneficial and also keep in mind, the last time we were understand 50 in the service ism was december of 2009, just to put some perspective on it. should be out momentarily, not out yet, expecting what is it 17th or 18th number over 7 million once it went over 7 million it's never looked back we'll come up with that in a bit. back to you. >> all right rick, we got a pop in equities dow up 83. 10-year up to almost 1.86 here we'll watch reaction to that important number in the meantime out to the greenwich economic forum where leslie picker is sitting down with a special guest hey, leslie. >> hey, carl that's right i'm here with ray dalio, the founder and chairman and co-cio of bridgewater associates. y

. >> that's for sure let's get to the bond pits rick santelli at the cme >> good morning, carl., let's look at 24-hour chart of two year note yields. long before the sun rose on the east coast, we saw the drop in rates. rates are higher now than then the point is that release of the 11:00 eastern talk that chairman powell is going to give in front of the joint sessions of congress over the next two days didn't move the market at all. but i want to pull out just two of the key headlines that were out there. the first is debt load of business historically high and next one, that plays right into that, the federal budget on unsustainable path do you think aiding and abetting with low interest rates has to do with either of those conditions and especially on a corporate debt load. that was part of the plan, moving the riskier assets. in order to move into them, you have to issue them anyway, it is amazing to me that the medicine for what is wrong with us is pretty much the medicine they gave us to cure us in the first place look at two-day of 10s you see that today, notwithstanding

it's been a very busy day and rick santelli has the results. hi, rick >> we had 19 million 30-year bonds completing 84 billion in supply and the one issue market just like yields on the current 30-year bond just kept escalating the last couple of days this auction came in at yield at 2.43 some of the numbers are quite spectacular. i gave the auction an a minus. i'll start with what i think is the most telling primary dealers take the smallest amount i've seen in my database going back to b probably around 2014 at 20.5 unbelievable and if you look at direct bidding, direct bidding at 20.5 sorry, the primary dealers take 20.7, i have no lower. they took the least because investors want ed the most. direct was the best since december of 14 the a minus may be even more estimates that when prices are moving lower and yields are shooting up, investors flock to this issue and the only thing i can think of is that they believe this move might not have legs so no matter how you slice it, we moved 84 million in paper and yields are zooming to the upside b

. >> let's get to rick santelli at the cme in chicago. >> good morning.have another option today, we're on a different schedule, two-year was yesterday instead of today, all because of the holiday. and do remember, the auction of 2s, 5s and 7s, which will complete tomorrow, will settle on monday. lately settlement dates have been of major interest that issuance has to be paid for. and writing those checks may affect short-term liquidity. though this one doesn't happen to correlate with taxes due as well as, of course, other issues like t bills that also settle early in the week. look at one week of ten year note yields. 173, if you open the chart up month to date, the lowest yield close of november is 171 if we're to close here, this would be the second lowest, all maturities drip down as we finish the month of november china is about to do something quite historic look at a month to date chart of a chinese ten-year 320. ours, 173, which would you rather have? there is credit risk and currency risk. china is about to launch a 6 billion plus dollar denomin

mentioned at the top of the hour let's get to rick santelli with the bond report. >> reporter: hi. 24 our check, why did i pick five years only one that's up ten basis points october start to 30 year bonds auction today. tens and 30s were over 10 basis points they eased back a bit. we're up 40 basis points on the month. absolutely amazing from the beginning of october to where we sit now. if you look at the dollar index since october 1st, double bottom, closing up 98 since mid-october. back to you. >>> rick, would you now classify the shape of this curve actively as steep or still kind of just less flat than it used to be >> reporter: no. we're three and a half basis points from the steepest of 2019 historically it's been steeper but i think considering central banks and all their tinkering with interest rates i think it's a victory on the steepening curve. >> great thanks so much why banks are performing well and hitting record highs as of late let's sends it over to bob pisani who is on the floor of the exchange with what's driving this move to record closings >> reporter: record hi

. >> thank you >>> let's get over to the cme and get the santelli exchange. good morning, rickg, carl. like to welcome my guest jim karen, global fixed income portfolio manager. jim, thank you for joining me. gets get right into it in your writing today you believe that xx has bottomed in 2018 what do you think on the who are zon that has led to you that conclusion and what would that mean for investing in 2020? >> look, i think in 2019 what we've seen was a mid cycle reset by the fed which meant that the manufacturing sector slowed down, you could see that in the ism numbers. we've been seeing ism and pmi starting to pick up. if 2019 was a mid cycle reset as termed by the fed 2020 may be a cyclical recovery period if that happens the cyclical sector which in equity terms that would be more value but in some other areas more industrial manufacturing, i think that can actually even take the place of the consumer a little bit. we've made a big deal about the consumer holding up the economy, i think manufacturing and industrials i think they can actually pull some weight as well a

rick santelli. get to bob and see what's moving on the floor. >> we were up earlier on but constructive talks over the weekend. look at the s&p futures. eunice yoon, our reporter over there saying outlook kind of pessimistic over there, trump apparently not wanting to roll back any of the tariffs that chinese want market moved down on that. you can see, of course, trade the nominal mover of the market these days don't kid yourself the usual names here, energy, materials, industrials, banks, the big move up, down last week in yield was a major problem for the banks. down again today that moved down on the trade talks, utilities on the upside don't kid yourself still essentially at new highs the friday numbers that we were looking at here, new highs on the s&p 500. midcap is just below new highs small cap, even europe just below new highs here very, very broad rally want to see how broad it is, how often do you see value and growth hitting new 52 week highs. there is growth and value is also hitting a

. >>> still to comkcome, the figh over your digital wallet and rick santelli, what are you watching >oints mostly very solid. market reaction lctllauay logical. we'll talk about the outlier after the break. 's easy. but then you have to connect, download, edit, reformat, output, save, send, upload... still uploading... and maybe eventually post. this isn't working. introducing samsung business video solutions. with the galaxy note10, you can shoot, edit and post thumb-stopping videos, all from one device. samsung business solutions. dow is up 7 points let's get the santelli exchange. >> good morning. you know, it has been a very strange couple much months especially if you are watching the interaction between interest rates, data in the economy, global data regarding the global economy, and of course the equity markets i know mike santoli who does great market commentary yesterday showed a correlation of stocks and the price of instruments in the treasury complex. and of course when price goes up, yield goes down. they correlated because they don't correlate if you look at yields vers

ten year bonds up, rick santelli is tracking the action what's the demand like >> i grade the demand and i gave this one a "b. above average demand let's go through it. 27,000,000,010-year notes, first offering, there will be two notes to follow. the yield at the auction, 1.809 which is basically right at the lows of the one issued that really priced well, the bid to cover 2.49, best since april, 64.5, best sense june. 12.4 on directs was -- dealers take the smallest amounts since june "b" as in boy, the sell-off that pushed rates up was probably the main reason investors really stepped in tomorrow the last leg, 30-year bonds, back to you. >> unless we decide to do a hundred year and i would like to be able to redeem that. let's get back to jim paulson. where -- let's go out a year let's go out two years it's 3,100 or wherever we are on the s&p, is that going to be the low end of a range or we in nosebleed territory and we're like up there in the sta stratosphere. >> i look at valuations as the moldable -- on trailing earnings, a little over 20 times and that's slightly above average

and then the curve as rick santelli has pointed out. let's get to the judge in the half. >> thanks. front and center this hour, the growing number of stocks making a run towards new highs. is that the most bullish sign yet for the long awaited breakout it is 12:00 noon. this is "halftime report." >> the stocks that are primed to lead the way. boeing fuelling the dow to record levels today. the company's chairman on cnbc to discuss the 737 max crisis, where the stock goes from here. >>> why it may be time to get back into growth again. ten names for your portfolio. the investment committee is ready to go. "halftime report" starts right now. >>> our investment committee here today. pete, give me an idea of how the market has moved lately. 23% of the s&p 500 at or within three percent of new 52-week highs. seven of 11 s&p sectors within three percent of their high. we have made moves as we continue to kick around the question of whether we will have the breakout. >> and the negativity was pretty high. going back to the time when we heard from the banks and then the technologies and sem

rick santelli is tracking all the action >> we've had three strong up days in yield, down days in price the weak productivity numbers, first negative number since the end of 2015, markets are melting a bit. but that selloff certainly helped build demand for today's ten year auction which went really well. you see the resistance there in the mid 180s, and finally the dollar index has been mostly down side since the 2% drop in october. you see, it is crawling back on this week and a half chart, back up to that 98 level, it will be a very important test to see if we can jump over that level and close over that level this week. tyler, back to you >> all right, mr. santelli thank you very much. >>> elizabeth warren's war on att th has a hidden bombshell. wh iis and what it means for markets, next. ♪ ♪ not much, how about you? >>are you answering my text in person? i am...yeah. >>lol. come on in. this is tech that helps you be there. the nissan altima. now offering the most tech-advanced engine in its class. woi felt completely helpless.hed most tech-adonline. my entire career and business we

at 1.9%, it's been a while, hasn't it, since we've been at that level rick santelli. >> tyler, you really are looking in the same crystal ball as i am because not only has it been a while, it's been exactly since september 13th on a closing basis. and that really is the context of what i want to talk about look at a july start for tens. 190. where are we sitting 191ish 192. >> it's very important if we continue to see the momentum or you want to look for momentum in higher yields, you got to close above that for the third-year bond, that number is 238. we're hovering two basis points above that if you look at high yield from barkleys on the spreads yield to date, these spreads are collapsing we're on a risk on mode. many investors reaching for yield feeling confident. finally, boon deals, they're pretty much doing the same thing. we want to pay a very close eye on whether they can continue to hold above minus 35. tyler, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much bonds and stocks, they have been following trade closely and it's been an interesting 24 hours of headlines. first, china announc

steve liesman, rick santelli, bob pisani, tom porcoli. >> fed chair powell is telling joint congress that rates are on hold unless there is a big change to the outlook. the operative sentence, we see the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our policies of moderate economic growth. what would it take to change course developments that would cause a material reassessment of our outlook, which is say the bar is kind of high bmo writing the chair stayed true to the patience script, confirming that rates are likely in an extended holding pattern powell also asserted that monetary policy is not on a preset course. while he said the overall economic outlook is good, risks do remain. among the downside, biz investment is restrained by slow global growth and by the trade war, the federal budget is on an unsustainable path, the debt load of businesses is historically high, however, the financial system, the risks remain moderate. we'll see whether or not members of congress want to w

let's get down to rick santelli. >> reporter: good morning.ected up six, we're only up 2.9. basically half following an unrevised floor october reads, import prices down half of 1%. more than double the expectation. if you strip out petroleum you're down one tenth. about as expected. import prices year-over-year down 3%, sequentially falling minus 2.1. export prices month over month down one tenth, year-over-year down 2.2 no pricing pressures here. global issues are affecting those numbers in particular. retail sales, the "moneyball" number, october. we're looking up .3. a tenth better than expected near image of the minus .3 x auto up .2 x auto and gas up 110 a bit light. control number plugged into other numbers up the food chain is up .3 it was unchanged last month. now it stands at minus .1 so we move up to .3 which equals our august read which super.3. high watermark was january at 2.9. that's a high watermark for the series interest rates, actually moved a tick lower, a tick lower on this data that reflects the pricing issues remember we

let's go the rick santelli in chicago. >> carl, not only does the curve continue to steepen, global interest rates are heating up. i have been on the this tune for a while. it gets in fits. today fit fits exactly what's going on many aren't really super optimistic about europe. but maybe there are certain signs things aren't as bad as they seem. but no matter how you slice it, many corporations in europe are really tapping the credit markets. countries are tapping the credit markets and big supply, just think about it this way, if europe's numbers start to get better, we could really have a bit of a tantrum on our hand globally look at a interday of 10s, zooming zoom, zoom let's zoom to the middle of july you can see the only thing between us now and more follow through to the upside is that september 13th high closed 190, we're one basis point away here's the 10s my in us 2s carl is talking about it's hovering below 24 basis points it continues to steep. it's gaining a couple basis points today we're up 6s and 10es, up 4s

. >> two minutes left to go here let's send it over to rick santelli for a check on bonds. > you know, we had some solid data, whether you looked at the proxy for business spending with durable goods up 1.2%, durable goods up .6% intra-day of two-year note yields, shortest maturity. 30-year bonds, they pop. you can clearly see not as much. yield curve flattening twos, tens, tens, 30s, fives, tens finally, dollar index. chart from early october seven-week high close today. kate rogers, two days with 8600. we already popped over 8700. >> hi there, rick. that's right the nasdaq is higher by more than half of a percent right now, best of the three major averages today in terms of performance, russell 2000 h hitting new 52-week highs today, thanks to names like jcpenney and fitbit biggest gainers in terms of percentage, auto desk, thanks to that strong earnings report that they just had, other big gainers, western digital and micron big tech names including apple, amazon and facebook are adding the most points in terms of the nasdaq today ahead of black friday, dollar tree is the

we're going to go to rick santelli in chicago. rick. >> there you are thanks, carl look two day of 10s, down a bit. the entire curve is down a basis point or so. but maybe the big issue is you look at these month to date charts is get ready to close out the second to the last month of 2019 you can see that yields really have slipped now, ten-year yields, switch the bund yields, aren't at the lows of the month, but certainly close considering the first two days of the month is when we establish the lowest yields. and if we look at the dollar index, it is up a little bit today. and over the last week, you can see it climbed toward the end of last week, popped above 98 even that's a victory if you open the chart up to the september 1st, throughout september, we had that kind of saw tooth formation, very unusual. right around 98.5 area if we jump above that we'll be revisiting some of the best prices of the year on the dollar index. but we all know whether it is multinational corporations or the white house, we're not all that enamore

less than two minutes left to go here send it over it rick santelli for a check on bonds rick >> twoall. mid resistance 180s. we fell back had a solid action government bond ten year at the best level since may but it hasn't closed at zero or higher in positive territory since early march. two day of the dollar index getting up to 98, hasn't closed above 98 since mid october let's go to the red paint at nasdaq, bertha coombs. >> thanks very much. i'm red, too down draft led by microchip, earnings missed saying the china trade situation has caused weakness in all geographies. fang hits a new low. diamond back hit by lower prices while bloomenburg has sailed. >>> not a lot of industrials caterpillar, united technologies, all of them to the down side. stocks weak, nice rally for oil recently chevron down 1.7%. we did have nice consumer days they were okay all right overall. tyson, smuckers. there's the closing bell dow jones industrial average recovering flat on the day s&p up two >> if you're just joining us, welcome to "the closing bell." i'm wilfred frost. >> i'm morgan brennan in fo

let's get to the bond pits as well and rick santelli >> this morning's 8:30 eastern number did changeasuries we had productivity at the lowest level since december 1st, negative numbers it is preliminary number and also i caution, it is kind of a strange comp the first negative number since 2015, but down .3 is a big difference in terms of size versus its comp of down 3.5, which was the number in december of 2015. let's look at some one week charts look at one week of two-year, we lost the mid160s, where the resistance is, on the left on that number. on 10s, mid180s between 2s and 5s flattening we're seeing all the space of the term structure open up a little bit on the curve. that isn't a bad thing 30 year bonds lost the mid2.30s. holding in all right we're giving back 3 to 5 basis points along the curve bunds, july 1st chart, i used it a lot, at minus 33, off its best at minus 31, you can see how things have changed. matter of fact, might be like turning a barge into a small lagoon, but interest rates are doing something different because policy perceptions are changing and i can't

. >> thank you very much >>> fed minutes this afternoon let's keep our eye on the bond pits rick santelliago good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl. you know, the globe has this feeling and the markets several weeks ago especially the fixed income, the interest rate markets i cover certainly seem to buy into what bob was talking about. global bottoming but if you really start to kick the tires, it seems to me it is more of a hint of more fiscal involvement in the months and quarters ahead but, boy, we're pretty sketchy on details and actual dates on that and i also want to point out china tinkered with rates lowering them a bit. lowering rates doesn't have the same effect it does many economies because of the way the government actually doles out capital to circumvent how important an interest rate the clust of your capital actually is we continue to see the downward move in rates. it has been continuous and a low volatility environment but it is impossible not to see the breadth of it globally look at november start to two year note yields remember, pretty much everything on the curve

let's sends it over to rick santelli for a check on bonds. >> reporter: good afternoon.lel shift all maturities up about 2%. if you look at third week in october of the yield curve spread tens minus two we however at 16 flattest of the month. finally the distance between our yields and european yields is narrowest since february of 2013 looks like we'll avoid our first close of under 8,500 since last thursday >> reporter: part of the reason is chips are one pressure today. ubs cutting the chip equipment sector to a sell also applied materials and lam research netflix is the best perform week today. up for six straight days it signed a deal with a korean studio and then nuance trading at a four year high >> 1.4 billion to sell, bertha going into the close that's why we're drooping here look at l brands so-so earnings report, infuriate quarter, a tad better than execute, up 10% on that. low expectations oil two month high nice move up in energy stocks today. there's the close bell down 50 point in the dow jones industrials average just off the lows, s&p down four. >>> good

. >>> welcome back to "squawk box" -- "squawk on the street," i'm sorry, rick santelli live on the cme bits of october data. leading economic indicators expected down .2, cut that in half, down .1, better than expected last month we dropped a tenth on a revision and for our read on october existing home sales let's head east to diana olick >> rick, existing home sales in october up 1.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.46 million units, that is right in line with expectations sales up 4.6% year over year the real headline in this report is inventory 1.77 million homes for sale, that is down 4.3% year over year to a 3.9 month supply. just for context, a healthy housing market should have a six-month supply of homes for sale and that low supply is pushing prices up. median existing home price in october $279,900 up 6.2% year over year and that is the strongest annual increase since june of 2017 you have a lot of buyers out there, there should be more home sales now because mortgage rates are a full percentage point lower than they were a year ago. you remember there was a bi

first time since october 2018 >> that is a low vix two minutes left to go let's send it over to rick santellion bonds. >> with the shortened week due to thanksgiving, today's two-year note option was a success. institutions really lined up some of the best institutional demand in over three years a month to date of 30-year bonds. after about the first week of the month it's been nothing but melting. and when you pair it with the s&p 500 over the last two weeks, stocks leaving interest rates in the dust as they drift lower one thing going on is new highs into the close when you're up over 100 bertha, what a big nasdaq day. >> nasdaq huge and today biotech is really the strong point vertext had a high as well biotech is up about 22%. lululemon among the all-time highs today as well as barclays initiates that at an overrate, on pace for its best year since 2010 data dog, one of this year's ipo's that's doing well at an all-time high today. >> corporate deal making certainly a part of the narrative today for major deals and if you add up the price tag it's about $56 billion, charles schwab buying

rick santelli with the last live breaking news of the week, it is a september read on business inventoriesne.tenth we end up with zero. unchanged is interesting we have three unchanges this year, but this one doesn't add to it because last month's unchanged becomes minus 0.1 due to revisions we haven't had a negative number in this series since april of 2017 no surprises here. even some of the data today has had little effect on what is a down rate, down dollar week at least up until this point. carl, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much good friday morning, welcome back to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with david faber, record highs for the dow, the s&p and the nasdaq today despite mixed retail sales, mixed empire manufacturing but more hopes for a u.s. client trade deal. >> our roadmap starts with the trade real new record highs with larry kudlow saying the u.s. and china are getting close to a trade deal. >> pot stocks going up in smoke. we will talk to the executive chair of aurora cannabis on their latest quarter. >> and the ipo market is in a slump. nyc president

. >> it's just not the realreal real two minutes left to go let's send it over to rick santelli for ands. rick >> hey, buddy. if you look at tens minus twos yield curve spread, you see all you need to know about treasuries today prices were down which means we're bear spreading we're of a bear curve move to the upside flattening. that is a wonderful thing if you're aggressive on liking the economy. now, look at the intraday of the dollar index remember, we lost close to 2% in the dollar index in october. friday we made fresh going back to july. but we've had back-to-back days in the naz da k. whap are you seeing when you dig deeper >> it's a story of apple and tech lifting things. the tech sector at an all-time high look at amd. that's one of the chip names moving that sector they've gotten a nice tail wind from last week and then you've got amgen. also hitting an all-time high today after having gotten a tail wind from that oncology deal with a chinese company it couldn't sustain it in fact, we've seen biotech continue to lag down >> helping recently. important thing today, another n

market near all-time highs >> all right we've got two minutes left to go let's send it over to rick santellik >> it's been a huge week in stocks, dollars, and bonds look at a two-day chart of ten-year note yields 187 intraday high for the week but we're darned close at 193, we're up, open the chart up this is a big day and week, because we've taken out those september 13th highs, both in 10s and 30s. final, the dollar index drops 2% in october this is the first week in november, it's head up half of that at 1% and bertha, not only a record close, sixth week in a row for big nasdaq, higher closes. what's going on? >> and a lot of that has been driven by chips, which are the best performing sectors this week qualcomm, one of the poster children there one of the big chip companies that posted strong earnings. we also had veco and great results from synaptic. in biotech, we're also seeing a big recovery this has been the beaten down sector, up for six straight weeks, as well regeneron, one of the poster children there one of the best performers after a really stropg beng beat in its earnings exp

let's check in with rick santelli >> we only have six and a half weeks left of 2019 i thought a year-to-date down 86 basis points look at a year-to-date of bunds. they are down 59 basis points. dollar index up two cents on the year up a little over 2 correspondens if you're long stocks or treasuries you're making money if you bought the dip at lunch you're looking good on the nasdaq >> that's kind of a mixed picture particularly in tech cisco weighing things down chuck robins talk about the weak macro outlook. the outlook there is sinking the stock. on the other hand you had metap. it's a gainer today. under the radar, cardalytics morgan stanley downgraded the stock it's very close to that $58 high price target. over to bob. >> reporter: bottom line here is we look like we'll hate new high on s&p but comes on very light volume again and very low volatility s&p has moved bat 25-point range in the last eight or nine trading session. that's extraordinarily low volatility we got walmart today jc penney tomorrow i don't know what they will say about righting that ship it's over $1 that stock was

. >> two minutes to go now let's get over to rick santelli now for a check on bonds rick. >> you knowvery different sort of november for ten-year notes and all the curve. look at the tens we moved up. couldn't get over 80, 180, and back down a bit. on the day, we're up one basis point. on the week, we're up one basis point. open month to date, we're on nine basis points on the month very compressed month for interest rates dollar index, look at the month to date. on the highs of the range for the month. matter of fact, up close to one cent on the month. and it seems as though the big nasdaq had a good year in the month of november. >> yeah. it's been a november to remember here in the nasdaq record highs for the nasdaq composite but also a big rebound when it comes to biotech and that's really driven the strength both in small caps, the biotech sector up about 11.5%. new sector today at a 52 week high other end, apple had another strong month here. responsible, in fact, for about a third of the nasdaq 100 gains this month over to dom chu. >> so bertha, thank you very much for that. we

to rick santelli. >> it is going to be so fascinating, carl.ly thatjobs number even gm just started was really solid. couple of things we didn't even hit on there was a subtle but very important positive revision year over year earnings last month we thought there were 2.9, they moved to 3%. even that one-tenth, that's a positive, 95,000 jobs over the last couple of months revised to the upside how did it all turn out? let's look at some one week charts look at two-year note yield. on the right side, of course, look at that volatility. we're not regaining all the yield increase from the positive number but most of it and carl is right, the ism is the second punch here we'll have to see if it is a good one or bad one. one week of tens, up one on the day, down 10 on the week 2s down seven on the week. there is some of your flattening what is interesting, look at 10s to 2s for one week basically we're trading a quarter of the range like float. 20, 15, we're bouncing back and forth. virtually, what, two or three on the fed met at its last meeting p

. >> delivery continues to be a battleground let's send it over to rick santelli with a check on the chicago hi, rick >> hi. what a wild day. if you look at intradays of two, we are up on the day if you look at a chart starting in august for 10s, the midpoint of the extremes is 167, basically where we held intraday today and a julys 1st high >> it's really been about earnings and china this week hope on china. apple really solidifying that as it, too, is at an all-time high. but the sectors, we saw both the hardware sector and the chip sector follow suit, hitting new highs this week, bob a lot of optimism there. >> yeah, that's right, bertha. a 5-2 advancing to declining stocks today and we had some better volume, that we've seen on an up day 200 new highs down here at the new york stock exchange. emphasis on better economic data china, u.s., and europe. that is really the thing that moved markets forward today. big global cyclical names. united technology, new highs we had great moves incart pillar, dow, 3m. all of those big global cyclicals. defensive names were weaker today. proct

let's get over to rick santelli for a check on bond. >> thanks, wilf.ctober 22nd start to bonds, long end of the treasury curve, you see that lull on the left side, that was made right after the fed's last meeting zoom, zoom, zoom it back a month, how precaresly we are sitting here, one basis point away from that right after the fed meeting. what about the fed december, the last fed fund futures contract of the year boy, look at this chart. how flat and strange is that when you zoom it out a bit, what you'll notice is expectations for any fed activity flatlined after the last meeting bertha, we lost profits on the week with the nasdaq. >> we are seeing those expectations for trade progress continuing to flatline as well apple is the biggest drag here, not getting any kind of lift from president trump, touring apple manufacturing facilities in texas with tim cook meantime, take a look at biotec today. one of its rare genetic drug treatments approved by the fda, stock surging on that news net will be somewhere around 440,000. pot stocks are higher as well

. >> let's send it with rick santelli >> look at an intraday of two-year note yields we are now unchanged out to the long end, 30-year bonds are down five basis points and that's off the low yields of the day. finally, let's look at the ten-year, if you start at the third week in october, you can clearly see, we're getting very close to testing some of the lowest yields for november and this is despite the best permits at 1.46 million seasonally adjusted analyzed units in 12 years. now we'll go to the nasdaq and frank collin, where we are now up month to date close to 3.5% >> hey, there, rick. lucky number 13 on the nasdaq. another fresh record close amd, the biggest gainer, seeing a more than 3.5% gain. also broadcom, up more than 2% after a morgan stanley upgrade, but chips overall down very slightly great day for biotech, however that etf up 2% vertex, the best performer after a guggenheim upgrade we're also look at altria. those shares down more than 2.5% today, after the new york attorney general announced it is suing juul for its marketing practice towards minors. california announc

. >>> let's get over to tcme grou in chicago and rick santelli with the santelli exchange. >> thank you peter chur, academy securities thank you for joining me, let's get right into it. you have arrived at the intersection that many have that phase one in essence is a truce. i don't disagree why don't you explain why you believe that is the case and how will that truce affect further negotiations on more difficult issues >> that sounds great i think reality is we're not going to get a true phase one deal it's delayed too long. there's too many contentious issues i don't think the president wants a big deal until end of q1 or early q2. we will get a trade truce, things that china needs. i think it will be bla, not as good as the markets would hike but that should be enough for now. >> move from checkers to chess, shall we okay let's make some assumptions and say we get a trade truce, there's no additional tariffs placed and this president wins re-election one year from now. then wouldn't that truce be a strategic error by the chinese i can't imagine how this president will negotiate with