. >> jerry and terra, you're a little more constructive let's get rick santelli in here quickly to see how demand went for that rick >> it wasn't pretty. d for dog is the grady gave it and you'll see why in a moment the yield, 7.4 the high yield was 7.0 until the results came out right there it gets a bad mark for pricing. 2.30 versus 14.6 on direct the problem here is all the metrics i just gave you is the worst since june and june was not a very good option the dealer takes 31% a reopening 10-year note doesn't find lots of demand mainly because there is a lot of whispering that we might be over our skis in terms of overbuck conditions in some of the markets. >> a lot of talk about inflation, too, druckenmiller saying it could be over 10%. terra, let me ask you how you would be recommending the position here, especially if tech is over its skis. what do you think about valuations here? >> well, i'll disagree with jeff and stan druckenmiller at the risk of everything that comes with that. they're very colorful but they've been wrong jeff said in 2017, sell everything and run he said 20

rick santelli.t of the dow components in the green today, let's get to bob pisani as well hey, bob. >> hello, carl happy wednesday, everybody very familiar scenario, an up day, an up open and it's been this way for several weeks now and the same components are leading, it's the same semi-conductor stocks are having a good day, a lot of new highs in the semi-conductor list, consumer discretionary as well industrials a little bit better, but, again, look at that, banks and energy just have been doing nothing, nothing for weeks on end. they are not participating in this rally in the slightest extent and that's a little bit discouraging new high list it's the same familiar names every day we put up nike and amazon and walmart and alphabet and amazon and apple, they are all there every single day what i don't see is the big expansion, over 100 new highs on the nyse today, there's 2,50 stocks on the nyse you want to see 300, 400, something like that. we are not seeing it right now the semis, yes, again, e

let's get to rick santelli hey, rick. >> hi, carl.eed, you know, claims basically were lateral moves both on initial and continuing i'm not sure that's a good thing, we'd like to see more progress made on bringing joblessness down but the inflation numbers were a smidge hotter which will make thomas consumer price interesting more interesting. intraday of ten firmed up right back into the zone of crowded trades that we have between 70 and 74 basis points, we want to with a much if we get above three quarters of 1% a month to day of bund yeels same scenario, they keeping moving up towards minus 40 but for the most part it's also somewhat of a lateral month with regard to rates. something that hasn't been lateral is their currency. christine lagarde and the ecb met today and they didn't really change policy and they are not really addressing or targeting or spending much time talking about the recent strength of their currency whether it's against the dollar as you see on this intraday which is getting close to levels we haven't seen si

getting, i think, six fed speakers today, we have german inflation numbers, a good day to get rick santelli rick. >> yes, indeed, carl i'm sure those six fed speakers will make everything just so perfectly crystal clear for all the rest of us with regard to how we're supposed to invest our dollars. one thing we do know for sure most fed members think more needs to be done but the more that needs to be done is aimed towards congress, we will have to take a wait and see approach. one thing we don't have to wait for is a record sized trade deficit at least on the advanced reading for august, minus 82.9, this is fascinating because if you look at imports and exports they were both up, as a matter of fact, imports were up 3.1% to $201 billion okay $201 billion versus the all time tie pre-corona which was $238 billion. experts up to $118 billion their all time high from may of 2018 is $142 billion. the point here is that it's our consumption. it's our demand pulling in from other economies that are ramping up exports though they may not have the same type consumption numbers, you want to really p

thank you, bob let's get over to rick santelli now at the cme group for a check in on the fixed income rick. >> good morning, david you know, if we look at the notion that as bob pointed out for the most part we looked at rather stagnant initial and continuing claims meaning not much change, not much variation from last week and that really is the point we've stopped making a lot of progress on drops in both the initial and continuing claims and if you look at an intraday chart of ten year note yields it hasn't had a huge range but the low yields were established right after that 8:30 release although we are continuing to melt again 30-year bonds just slipped under 140 and we want to pay close attention to this next chart here is an august 1st chart of seven-year notes as you see in early august they made their all time low yield close at 35 basis points we are now 10 basis points higher than that and at 1:00 eastern we will have a record sized 50 billion auction of those seven-year notes dollar index, yes, we have been on a run here, you can even see it in the euro the euro now this i

thanks we're going to get pmi in a few moments, let's get to rick santelli hey, rick. >> hi, carl.o through some of the charts and when the news hits we will break right into it look at a three day of tens, since last week we completely see we continually give up ground, whenever rates seem to firm up they don't seem to get any legs a month to date chart, we went from basically 50 to 70 basis points, not bad, breaking news, our august final read on market pmi expecting a number around 53.5, a little bit light, 53.1 53.1 now, this replaces 53.6 which was the early read and 53.1 is the best number going back to -- to january of 2019 so the beginning of last year. and later on today, very short while from now we will get the ism august read which is also going to most likely be a barn burner other isms around the globe have been. back to the charts, the month to day chart we've gone 50 to 70 basis points on ten, dollar index and euro currency, the euro makes up a significant portion of the dollar index, month to date of the dollar not a great month, when you hook in a two month to dat

rick santelli. >>> we have full coverage on what is the big story of the day. a ban on new downloads of tiktok beginning sunday, along with wechat. we have more from washington, d.c., and beijing. we're going to start with aman as the headlines continue to fly. good morning >> reporter: yeah, good morning. senior commerce department officials wrapped up a briefing call with reporters to explain exactly what the changes are i've got a lawnmower in the background i apologize. what the changes are they're saying, there's been confusion about it as of sunday here, they are saying that nobody will be able to download either wechat or tiktok in the united states after midnight sunday. but that the degradation in functionality that will happen after that will only happen on wechat for a period of time, and then the tiktok degradation of functionality will begin on november 12th. i asked officials if that november 12th date has anything to do with the election which happens to be on november the 3rd. is this an effort in effect to get this passed the deadline of the el

back over to you >> yes, frank, now let's get to rick santelli for the santelli exchange rick >> thanku, john i would like to welcome ed lazier thank you for joining me on another jobs friday and quickly so sum mmarizesummarize, about o the 1.37 million jobs created were private sector. and the household survey blew up what did you 1993 this report, ed >> i see this as an almost perfect report it is actually quite surprising to have such general employment growth that is continued at this point in the recovery. so if you think about it, rick, we had about 2.5 million jobs created in the past two or three months this month is slower than some of the earlier months, but it is still close to 1.5 million jobs that is excellent. it will be general health in the labor market hours of work are growing by one tenth of an hour and then the other thing that doesn't come out in the jobs day report that i look at is you know the churn, which you get through jolts. so if you look at jolts, it is a very active labor market we had 6.87 million hires. the other final point that i would make, it cuts t

let's get to rick santelli hey, rick. >> yes, this is the first of some pmis.mi, it's an august final, final means we have a mid-month read which was 54.8 that gets tossed, it's now replaced with 55.0 55.0 is the number that's the best read on this indices since march of 2019, we will call it, what, 17, 18 months if we look at the composite figure the 54.7 there gets replaced with 54.6, basically a lateral move, but nonetheless solid. and ism services, the pmi coming out in about 15 minutes and that of course a more seasoned read, that goes back to 97, markets go back to, well, they celebrated their three-year birthday in august carl, back to you. >> all right rick, thank you. we will see you in a little bit. rick santelli. >>> jobless claims earlier this morning did come in under consensus, 881,000 versus an expected 950,000 that's a new low since the start of the pandemic the ajting chair of the president's council of economic adviser tyler goodspeed is with us this morning. good morning to you. >> good morning. >> definitely trending in the right direction a

. >>> let's go to the bond market where rick santelli is tracking the action the yields have softened a bit. >> they have softened today, but unfortunately or fortunately the catalyst wasn't the beige book it had a lot of good information, but it had a lot of buts it in employment looking better, especially when you consider what's going on with manufacturing, but at a slower rate of change the only this ink that didn't have a but is residential housing is doing pretty well the market saw that look at the two-day of tens. yesterday's low yield was about 66 basis points, and today's was unit it wasn't the minute we traded below that, it gained momentum down several if you look at 10s minus 2s we have a bull flattening finally a two-day of dallas index. we're firming from that level, but not in an aggressive fashion. tyler and kelly, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much >>> coming up, we will have more on the markets right now utilities, health care and consumer staples, those are the sectors leading the way today, as 10 out of 11 are in the green. college campuses are cracking dow

. >>> let's get to rick santelli now, check in on the fixed income markets rick, which you haven't hadtalk about this morning. >> hi, david yes, good morning. well, we had that cpi and it definitely was hotter than expected as a matter of fact, if you look at some of the components within, for example, core cpi up 1.7% year over year, these are big numbers. if you just look at the various aspects that propelled core numbers up both headline and year over year, one of the biggies was used cars and trucks up the most in more than 50 years. and if you called it and you had the right position looking for yields to move higher you didn't make any money let's look at an intraday of ten year notes, the minute the data came out the yields basically nose divided my question is much of that were traders positioning for some hotter than expected cpi data. there has been a spat of higher inflation data and a lot of stories written about how we may see some higher inflation data down the road, but it has not been a profitable trade. as a matter of fact, let's look at a longer term ten-year note cha

. >> wow, it's a monster bob, thank you so much bob pisani rick santelli is also standing by and yesterday the market remains unimpressed. >> that's because we haven't seen inflation yet i think if we do and when we do, the market will not be as blase as we think. twos, they're a whisker under 14 basis point. >> tens were at 666, and 30-year bonds around -- fixed markets haven't moved. i certainly do want to weigh in on this conventional wisdom that they're advertising something, and oh, my goodness, this is so important, it's never happened before, 2008 to 2015, seven years, credit crisis, seven years before we normalize rates from zero to 25 to the first rate hike by janet yellen in 2015, because the economy was truly dented how we come out of covid, if there's a vaccine? nobody nose. if the fed could keep this rate at the same rate for three years. that is loss figureser getting smaller and smaller. we don't know how it will end. policy will changes once we get on the other side of covid >> john bellows, let me come back to you. your thoughts on what this fed just said basically. it wou

. >> let's get to fixed number we're joined by rick santelli.ing. >> good morning, david you know, we had some important data out this morning, but the issue with weak headline numbers for preliminary durable goods is that it's a volatile series on its final stages so these numbers are definitely going to change. the bright spot is having said that, that the proxy for capital spending in the form of capital goods orders nondefense aircraft was really a good number and there were positive revisions, but as you look at a two-day chart of the longest duration on the treasury curve, 30-year bonds you will see the deterioration, briefly we traded under 139 so these are the new low yields, high prices of the week as a matter of fact, if you open it up to a month to date chart it's been three weeks since the 30-year bond has closed under 140, we want to pay very close attention and consider any of those lucky investors who bought any of the 155 billion record amount for the package of twos, fives and sevens at this point before settlement next week are

let's get to rick santelli >> yes, our preliminary september read for market pmi, on the manufacturingide 53.5, exactly what's expected. and if we go to services, 54.6 also darn close to expectations. and when you mold them together for the composite it's at 54.4 54.4 is, well, it's as good as the last read, our final august was 54.6 so you can see how that fits in. and the low read on the composite was 27 and that was back in april. remember this series is officially three years old today, it started in september of 2017. so it really gives us a very good view. 27 was the low in april, the all time high was 56.6 and that was in march -- may, excuse me, of 2018 now let's get to some data points and, remember, we have supply today we have a five-year note auction of record supply of $53 billion, a whole package is of record supply if you look at a two day of tens you can see it's been mostly lateral, right in the mid to upper 60s. early august we are closing in somewhat on the middle to top of the range, unlike bund yields as you see on the same time frame early august where it's dippin

rick santelli tracking the action for us. rick >> yes, kelly, indeed. we see that there's more buying that happened after that very solid five-year note auction you can look at a chart of intraday fives and see right at 1:00 eastern the way it moved up a bit. open the chart up to early august, this is important. the all-time low yield closed from early august is 19 basis points just under one-fifth of 1% today's auction a little over 27 base points, a little more than a quarter of 1% is the lowest at the auction. see there's only a small cushion. the psyche of investors, the closer you get to all-time lows, the more buying it takes in. a two-day of the dollar index has had a nice run here and really isn't dollar strength it's more euro weakness. if you open the chart up to the third week in july, we're at two-month highs on the dollar index. two-month lows, the euro against the dollar and really much of the euro weakness, of course, is some of those covid hotspots and a bit of nervousness on how their economy is going to continue to rebound. frank, kell

we appreciate it, rick santelli, today. >>> let's turn to shares of johnson & johnson higher as the company says it's moved to phase 3 now of its covid-19 trial. meg tirrell is here with those details. meg? >> kelly, they dosed the first participants in this trial after what they say was positive results from an earlier study, and we should see those any time over the next day or two this is going to be a massive trial. 60,000 participants across three different cocontinents starting at age 18, j&j wants to focus on diversity enrollment in the trial, and also participation of people over the age of 60. what differentiates this vaccine from the other three that have already started phase 3 trials is they are testing it in just a single dose. the others from pfizer, moderna and astrazeneca, they're testing two doses. j&j said they could see a result in 2021. moderna said they would see a dose in 2021, but it's going to take while to get up to enough supply for everyone. jerome powell says president trump tweeting that it must move quickly. here's what the j&j chief scientific officer said. >>

rick santelli standing by with breaking retail sales data rick, the numbers. >> yes we're waiting forr. china had theirs and they finally turned positive. they had their first positive reading of the year. we went positive much earlier than that. our may reading was positive here we go, up 0.6 of 1% on the advanced retail sales for august that is not as high as the expectations we were looking for a 1% number. if you strip out autos, up 0.7, we were also expecting up 1% there. take out autos and gasoline station, sales up 0.7, we were expecting up around 1% and finally the control group number that gets fed into other data points actually minus 0.1 of 1%. we're expecting up 0.3 these numbers are a bit on the soft side. they aren't out of the realm of positive, though, and that's a good thing other than the control number but it is an advanced read and they put in advanced for a reason because this will get tweaked in the final august numbers that will replace these. ultimately, the effect on the market, at least the markets that are open, we see 0.66 on a 10-year note, which has been

let's get to rick santelli hey, rick. >> hi, carl. know, it was a big deal yesterday when china had their first positive read on retail sales for 2020 now, the u.s. has had four, today was the fourth, but it was still a bit of a disappointment up 0.6, wasn't nearly as strong as what we were looking for, about half-strength but also remember it's the advance which means if it was a puzzle we are missing quite a few pieces, we will if i will it in for the next couple weeks and see if it changes when it's released in its final form look at the intraday of tens, you can clearly see the disappointment in the way interest rates fell after that number was released, this he all all over the world, a high correlation with u.s. data and all the sovereigns and bunds actually went minus 50 for a while. if you look at this chart from late july you can see how rare it's been to be closing under minus 50 basis points so we want to pay very close attention to that level when it comes to foreign exchange, especially as we go into the second day of the

let's go to rick santelli this morning. hey, rick. >> hi, carl.now, obviously the effects of the big down moves in equities especially many days in a row of them has taken a bit of a toll on treasuries as you see on a two day of tens but the thing that 66 basis points when the all time low yield closes at 50, there is an issue here that we just don't seem to be gravitating to the same type of safe harbor buying pushing rates down on the latest go round with the weakness of equities as we have in the past if you look at some of the drops in march and some of the areas actually just a couple of months ago were the equity markets didn't have huge moves, but the fixed income markets still seemed to be soft. what's going on here well, you can also look at a two day of bunds and see that it's very similar across boundaries there is a certain correlation going on there in the correlation of course is central banks and how they buffer and mask some of the signals between markets. if we look at the high yield space, look no farther than the hyg. given the

let's get to rick santelli this morning. hey, rick. >> good morning, carl.ow much the data overperformed in terms of expectations, but the market is having a say so here, especially the treasury market. as you look at an intraday of ten year and see how it spiked up, it really did have a bit of a say so in how to interpret some of the data points. as you look right now at ten year some of the data points. a 10-year note yields 67 your bonds are up 40 on the day, down 10 on the week, which is the point. we're seeing improvements, especially when the equity markets are trying to move to positive from yesterday. but we really are much lower, and that's due to some of the fed speak. realize we're all in this together in a way in terms of correlations, the 10-year boon looking like treasuries in response to an eight-year data look at 10s to 2s, moving back up to 53, so whether you look at 10s and 2s, 5s to 30s, all of them steepened a little bit. that is a good thing ilts ni it's nice to see even if real interest rates are on the negative side, to see that pull f

. >> rick santelli >>> when we come back as we said regeneron rising on news about its antibody cocktailwe will talk to the company's chief scientific officer in a moment one reason that the markets are hanging on to close to 3350. we are back in a moment. (music) anncr: give customers access to precisely what they want, when they need it the most. with adyen, the payments platform that delivers convenience for all. adyen. business. not boundaries. nextera. joe early data from regeneron showing positive results from the antiviral cocktail to treat the coronavirus. joining us now is a person who i know as probably someone who has brought more medicines, more drugs to the market that have been approved, a member of the u.s. national academy of sciences and someone i have had a close relationship for a very long time dr. george yancopoulos of regeneron doctor, always good to see you, sir. >> jim, it's always great being on we will never forget that you spotted us many years ago when we were a $5 stock and you thought our special technologies could make us a powerhouse and i hope you appreci

rick santelli has breaking economic news for us rick >> andrew, we normally will cover advanced tradeber, like many advance numbers, ends up morphing when you get all of the pieces of the puzzle but this one is big time. if we look at the advanced trade balance on the advance, minus 82.9 billion close to minus $83 billion and it is now the biggest negative read on trade balance ever sings recordkeeping started in 1989. the reason i think it needs to be viewed as so important is because it now is becoming a barometer for whose economies are dealing faster in other words, we are bringing in more than we are exporting net ratio and that's to the tune of a gap of minus 83 billion which means that the goods and services we are bringing in, this one is goods that we are bringing in, of course, are coming from countries whose horsepower is ramping up faster in a covid world than ours is. that's the way many investors will look at it. it goes a long way to explain how the recent currency moves have been underpinned by which countries have the hottest hot spots. >> hey, rick, is this a situati

rates steady had a weak outlook maybe that's dragging us all a little bit to the down side here rick santelli we go well, on initial jobless claims we're expecting a number around 850,000. darn close to the 860, 860 on initial claims 12,628,000 so, indeed, under the expected 13 million mark as for starts, well, starts is a really fascinating number because on starts we have 1.416 million seasonally adjusted annualized units this is a rare miss for the housing industry that's down a little bit over 5% we are expecting a number much closer to 1.5 million and on the permanent side, also a miss. 1.470 seasonally adjusted annualized units that follows 1.483 so that makes that another down number then finally if we consider all the issues of the day, probably the biggest issue in front of us right now, of course, is digesting the fed. kelly, you mentioned the bank of england. not only are they hinting about negative rates, they have researchers and regulators looking into how to implement them this is not a very good sign they need to be more observant for the fed, i'll give you one analogy. you th

morning for the third month in a row and now we're getting industrial production let's get to rick santellie're waiting for august read on industrial production, carl, and of course, i will have to tap dance a bit here. don't see it on any of the wire services yet we are expecting a number up around 1% and on utilization rates something above 71%. it has come off some big lows, both of them had huge lows in april, minus 12 on industrial production here we go industrial production up 0.4 of 1% less than half of expectations but we did see a half a percent increase in last month july moves from 3% to 3.5% utilization rates still don't seem to be trickling out, carl i will give it back -- oh, here we go. 71.4 exactly as expected. and a revision of a half of 1% on this number as well the july read originally at 70.6 now stands at 71.1 jim, back to you >> well, thank you so much those numbers seem okay. this he seem okay, rick, and that's one of the reasons why i know we will be waiting for secretary -- for speaker pelosi to answer what leader mccarthy said because maybe we don't need a deal i w

latest jobless claims figure and rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago rick, the numbersclaims. very close to the expectations of 850,000 and on continuing claims, a bit of a miss. expecting a number a little bit less than 13 million we ended up with a number more than 13 million. 13,385,000 is the number i'm sure the revisions will trickle in, but while we're waiting, joe, let's take a look at august producer price index expecting up .2. it is up .3 on headline. and if we look at the headline number, remember, this series goes back to, what, 2010 because they keep modifying the inflation adjustment process the extremes are up .9 and down .9. just to give you an idea if we strip out the all important food and energy, up .4 double the expectations. food, energy and trade were up .3. now for the long view, let's go year over year year over year x food and energy is up .6 year over year ppi normalized, is down .2 we were expecting a down number there. if we look at, let's see, year over year x food and energy and trade, it's up .3, a little hotter than expected let's go back

rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago he's got those numbers that are coming up. ant rick >> reporter: yes, it is important. should be coming up momentarily. remember, seasonal adjustments happen with a lot of numbers that are inaccurate. here we go at least the productivity numbers coming through productivity quarterfinal up 10.1%. unit labor costs down a bit. expected to be 12%, 9% following 12.2 here's the money ball number under 1 million on initial jobless claims 881,000. 881,000. of course, that is a new low considering that we started around march 20th with 3.3 million and it has moved lower, snugging around 1 million. it popped above it so this is, indeed, good news and it really does give us an idea that the seasonal adjustment process might have had some surprises in both directions on continuing claims, a big miss, which is a good thing. expecting 14 million, it's 13,254,000 13.254 million revisions may be coming, but at the moment i don't see them. as steve pointed out, i'm not sure that they're all that important. but we do see that the 1,600,000 moved

rick santelli live here at cme hq awaiting august preliminary data on durable good orders some of theo be up 1.5% on the incomplete puzzle we'll get more as we get the final numbers. up .4% that is 1/3 of what we are expecting. it's still up .4 capital goods orders, non-defense exaircraft a proxy for capital spending that one actually surged a bit up 1.8 this is expected to be up 1% up 4.3 was the june read that was a good read going back for several years. this is a good number and if we swap out orders for shipments, it's up 1.5. wow. okay now the revisions are coming in and these are actually fairly interesting. on the capital goods order proxy, nondefense, ex-air, that move from 1.9 all the way up to 2.5% shipments from 2.4 to 2.8. these numbers are pretty good except for the headline number which follows a slightly revised number to up to .4 that is something to pay close attention to, especially considering that outside the service sector, joe, we're expecting manufacturing and some of these durable good orders and factory orders to hold up a bit better this is a bit of a disapp

associate professor and deputy assistant treasury secretary for economic policy and steve liesman and rick santelli a little bit of a number ahead of what we've been waiting for, what you're anticipating with this jason, we'll start with you. >> it's so hard to tell. we know lots of jobs were gained, lots of jobs were lost but i'll go with a net of 1.1 million jobs gained. the unemployment rate moving down to the very high single digits >> 9.8% range around the consensus? >> yeah. yeah >> all right kate, how about you? what's your number just in terms of jobs gained potentially and unemployment >> i was going to say, round number, 1 million, but most important, becky, what i'm focused on is the mix between private and government if more of the job gains is coming from government and we see a meaningful slowdown in private, that might send a signal i think in terms of the overall unemployment rate, i'm around 9.9, 10%. >> that's a fair point i'll make sure i write that down as well. nada, how about you? >> so i agree we'll see some modest increase in the number of jobs i think it is incredibly hard

rick santelli live here at hq cme in chicago.on expectations if we strip out the all important food and energy, it's still up .4 double the expectations on the long view, year over year, up 1.3 on headline if we look at core year over year up 1.7. let's dig in on these numbers. on the headline, follows .6. the low for this, the worst price level is minus .8. minus .8 was basically one of the worst numbers we've had since 1947 the third worst. year over year up 1.7. that's the hottest since march of this year when it was slightly over 2% do keep in mind that we want to pay very close attention to the disparities or the separation between near term and longer term whether it's ppi, cpi, or just in general, many economists, experts, my sources tell me how the mid to long range inflation outlook will turn out based on getting on the back side of covid and whether the supply and demand curves end up getting closer together or farther apart. interest rates for the week? for the week they're down and close to unchanged on the day. we'll

. >>> let's go to rick for the santelli exchange. >> thanks. i'd like to welcome jerome schneider.agement at giant pimco. welcome. let's get into it. yesterday we listened to chairman powell talk at great length about how he's going to keep interest rates low potentially for years. my question is why should investors think that's necessarily a good thing it didn't seem to generate a lot of horse power in the economy under bernanke and yellen. it seems to take urgency out of the equation >> monetary policy is multifaceted i think the fed ultimately yesterday kept their optionalty open it's a long road until we get through the healing process. they recognize through the summary of economic projections that rates have to be low for a long time until late 2023. maybe even beyond. but there's a second component that there's many tools in the arsenal. and jerome powell did a great job reiterating that and the additional purchases or the ability to ramp up additional asset purchases in the future that's in their back pocket. zero rates are here for a long time as investors and cash manage