. >>> let's get a check on treasury yields, trading near three-month highs and rick santelli here to into it for us rick >> yes, kelly. if you look at a one-week chart and, of course, these take into account the fed meeting last tuesday and wednesday, here's 10s and 30s. you can see they've been zooming higher even to on 10s we are towards the low end of yield, the high part of prices for today still higher in yield than yesterday, and the 30-year bond seems to make up lost ground and it has been the laggard because it has to deal with the big demand, the longest maturity positive yield, even though it is a negative yield, still lots of buyers there. look at boons and guilds, same scenario the central banks are going in opposite directions. ecb leans more dovish. the bank of england sounds more hawkish. no matter how i slice it, no matter where you look the pressures of inflation are building call it transitory or anything you want, call it anecdotal, whether you look at five-year break evens or ten-year break evens in europe, back to 2012 respective price in the s&p for july what you

rick santelli saying watch this level. if we close above it it is going to change the technicals it is helping bank stocks. citi, regionals all higher ci citis $71. energy names, devin energy, apa. we are going to dig deep sbeer the rally and see what the bulls are buying and what they aren't, bob pisani is down on the new york stock exchange. >> the bears are stunned even the bulls are stunned right now. monday we were down 5% and the bears were sitting around saying finally, we are going get a 10% correction it is about time they have been crushed people have been emailing, why are rerallying can you explain to us? i can give you ideas of what people are talking about powell communicated do not conflate the taper with rate hikes. it is not coming for a long time those rate hikes there is generally a lot of confidence in the economic recovery yes, there is issues around what's going on with the covid variant. but we are still moving forward on that. there is a little bit of optimism about these washington comments that th

the ten-year yield hitting a key level breaking 1.5% earlier on we have not seen that since june rick santelli has more on these moves this afternoon rick >> just because you haven't seen it in a while and just because you are not seeing it very long today, in my opinion, doesn't mean you are not going to see a lot more activity at higher yield levels look how far the treasury yield market has come. ten-year notes on that fed wednesday. 30 basis points. come a long way. at one point, 20 basis points. now about 17 and various curves are acting a bit funky. tens, minus twos steepest in three months tens minus five, there is a one year chart you can see how flat they are. the twos are not a good part of the curve to observe use five to tens, fives to 30s and all the rest of the curves and what we are seeing is the nation of raising rates and the notion of a taper making the curve move in different ways here's the best chart. ten-year chart of crude oil and ten-year note yields the world runs on energy when the world runs, ten-year notes run up higher. everybody is expecting this year's gdp is goi

. >>> welcome back the relentless surge in energy prices is starting to hit currency markets rick santellit the cme. rick >> reporter: you know, when you talk inflation, energy prices seem to be the next topic that comes up, at least with my sources. and it's not only affecting what's going on in foreign exchange, it's affecting what's going on with interest rates particularly in europe look at 8:00 eastern we had better sales and the last guest weighed in on this there's reasons it weakened up we're not arguing about that we're arguing about what was expected and the stronger numbers that appear. if you look at a july 1st start for 10s we're in a wedge shape totally different than the formation of july 1st on bund yields right now at- two month highs. a chart of the dollar index. it was really acting quite soft just a month ago now it's turned up and it's a three-week high. the euro currency is the reason it's at three-week lows because energy prices in europe are surging causing asians to buy as much fuel as they can. factories may be closing uk has issues. italy has issues germany, thei

dom, back to you >> all right, rick santelli with the bond report.>>> here are some of the stock we are watching at this hour video game names among the leaders in the s&p 500 after outperforming amid yesterday's declines those names, though coming off several weeks worth of weakness, ea, take two, and act vision all up in today's session. >>> next up, lucid motor soaring, beginning production of their air sedan. calling it the tesla, slash, ferrari of new ev makers for more g to cnbc.com also is pro. >>> ahead of "power lunch," when do rising prices reek havoc on the energy market. >>> plus, we will speak with the illinois state board of investment head about supporting business owners in this community. >>> and a crypto conundrum an s.e.c. decision around the corner could spell either doom or gloom or bitcoin or possibly create a massive buying opportunity. we will check into all of those stories coming up after this [ sigh ] not gonna happen. that's it. i'm calling kohler about their walk-in bath. my name is ken. how may i help you? hi, i'm callin

a cooler than expected reading in the cpi rick santelli is dickgging throg the action at the cme today>> good afternoon, kelly indeed if you look at the last several times we've been in the mid-1.30s in the 10-year, it backs away every time. we have the two longest maturities of 10-year and 2-year bonds and the action was swift once that cooler than expected cpi hit. if you look at the year-over-year even though the numbers were less than expected and off the extremes that we've seen, they're still at lofty levels at 5.3 and 4%, whether you're looking at ex-food and energy or headline year over year. bund yields moved about five basis points however, however, the big moves continue to be in the u.s. the close here could be a two-week low close for 10s right at the end of august but what's fascinating is 30-year bond yields should they close here and they're down 5 basis points would be the lowest yield close since the beginning of august, we'll call that six weeks. when you see the spread, 10s and 30s move to that extreme, most likely you'll see more follow-through so look for yields t

let's get out to rick santelli for more market reaction for us. rick >> yes and let's look at the charts and talk about maybe a postmortem on exactly what prompted that big u-turn, kelly is talking about looking at intraday of 10. initial drop down to 1.27, 1.28 and boom we did a u-turn if you look at a one-month chart, rates are firming in the u.s. you contrast that with 1.5 month charts going back to the middle of july, you can see they're much hotter in europe. next thursday is their policy meeting. many believe they're going to have more religion with regard to buying programs than our fed does at this point in time it doesn't stop there. look at their currency fresh two-month highs for the euro and the dollar index hovering at fresh one-month lows what prompted the u-turn kelly hit one of them. but up .6 on average earnings month-over-month prior to covid, there was only one time that occurred that was very early with wh the data series started. there's another issue. if you predicted weak jobs report and you were long treasuries looking for r

top of the hour, rick santelli has the results. how did it go over, rick >> you know what it was like that's croissant in the buffet line. everybody was fighting for these 10-year notes. i gave it an a as in apple for 38 billion first-time reopen 10-year, so call them nine-year 11-month securities. the yield, 1.338 it was trading around 1.35 lower yield, higher price. boy, we really sold these quite well the treasury should be smiling all the metrics, the bid, the cover, indirect's at 71.1, direct at 16.6 these are historically supersolid the dealers take 12.3% of course the lower the percentage the dealers take the more aggressive investors were, and they were aggressive but why did they jump in on the 10-year? one of my thoughts is tomorrow's ecb will never live up to the expected hawkishness that somehow has been built into it that's my opinion. the second thing is you notice what the high has been the last session? and today we keep coming off that 137 and 139, kelly. we've talked before. that is a huge resistance level. back to

. >> rick santelli let me turn to you. steve, correct me if i'm wrong here but did you say in a the median forecast for inflation now in the short-term is above 4% no, no, no it's 4.2% this year. >> 2.4, i see. >> i will give you the exact numbers. 4.2% for 2021. and it's above 2%, which is their target, that's what i found interesting, through thuy. >> that was my point there i misunderstood, obviously i thought they were wokking 4% inflation, which would have been a wild number based on what it's been running rick santelli, your reactions? >> well, you know, the main driver of late has been flattening yield curves. i think we have some charts ready f. you look at 30s minus 5s that's at a 13 month flat, the flattest since august of 2020. if you look at 30s to 10s, the knob spread, often a predictor of the general direction of somewhere rates. it has been collapsing it's at the flattest it has been in 18 months, going back to march of 2020. it's approaching 50. what this tells me, to now see we are now below 1.30 in the te

. ♪♪ ♪♪ >>> we can bam rick santelli here the preliminary read on the ma market, m-a-r-k-i-t, that'sally it follows, and you have to go all the way back to april when we equalled 60.5. of course, march, 59.1 is truly the last tyke we were at that level. when you look at what lies in services, a big disappointment 54.4 you have to go all the way back to july, july of last year, to find a lower number. finally, let's look at the composite pmi, 54.5. you have to go back to september of last year to find a lower number so a bit of a miss, especially on services, which is the larger swath of the u.s. economy. we hope the reopening gets back on track as it was negatively affected obviously by the variant. "squawk on the street" will return, after these messages new customers get our best deals on all smartphones. that's right. but what if i'm already a customer? oh, no problem. hey, cam...? ah, same deal! yeah, it's kind of our thing. huh, that's a great deal... what if i'm new to at&t? cam, can you...? hey...but what about for existing customers? same deal. it's the same deal. is he ok? i

rick santelli tracking the action rick, ten year still under 1.3%. >> reporter: yes, it is. if you look at a couple charts, we are going into this number reverting, consolidating the high there is 1.37 the middle is 1.31 sort of where we're aiming and well below the very significant resistance we talked about months ago. 1.37% to 1.39% you saw the angle of that. look at a two-week chart of bunds. aiming up and much firmer. as a matter of fact, tomorrow's numbers are important but the market has made an assessment. why? because the dollar is not faring well lately. if you look at the euro versus dollar, it's at a one-month high exactly. the dollar index is a couple days short of one-month low. if you look at the dollar versus the chinese yuan it's at the worst levels, the dollar at the worst levels since the last few days of july more than a month ago. finally a two-week high for the pound. a good idea who is going to snug and who isn't. the only question i would have asked, if we keep purchasing q/e how will that matching the job openings with people who aren't employed will

three out of the four are higher the bond market we go, rick santelli tracks the action hi, rick >> hello know, we had a $24 billion auction in 20-year bonds today and the reason i bring it up is a little less than 17% of the auction went to the dealer community. that is the smallest amount since they brought the 20-years back in may of 20 and it really underscores there's an appetite out there. lot of cash. look at the two day of tens. hardly disturbed by yesterday. a quarter to date of ten shows we're down about 15 basis points from the 1.47 yield we had on the last day of june and if you look at a quarter to date of the dollar index, it is currently running about three quarters of a cent higher. mostly due to the weakness in the euro currency. mostly due to the energy issues that europe is going to be experiencing or has experienced. finally, 30s minus tens is known as the knob in chicago always been a favorite of many traders and if you look at it right now, it's at the flattest it's been going back to march of 2020 why do i show that chart because most of the time, it leads interest

rick santelli is with us as well >> we built a graphic to make a comparison what the world looks like digit inflation and double digit interest rates and a recession all simultaneous ly are we at risk of that experience somewhere down the road there are some similarities in terms of policies but it's certainly not identical. we're very different environment here the unemployment rate continues to fall. inflation has gone up. growth is positive though it may be slowing down. easily use that expression to describe the environment we find ourselves in >> if that's the case, rick, i guess maybe i'll turn to you for this one is there any kind of perhaps characteristic right now that suggests that it could be anything more than just this passing worry about quote/unquote transitory inflation. is there a real sign here and something more structural at play >> reporter: i can't argue with ron. all his numbers are correct. it's a static shot i think what we have is a variant of stagflation why? let's look at declining business activity atlanta gdp, let's show the chart. 7.6 now. ron is right,

rick santelli tracking the action at the cme. scussed how part of the sell-off was people that had the right position but didn't get paid. and then when the notion of higher wages started to sink in within 30 seconds after the number release the new selling came in. both those target pushed yields up service sector ism, this series started in 1997. you look at that chart, and even though we reversed from all-time highs last month, you could clearly see 61.7 the current read is very powerful. so some positives to this number this morning in addition to the ism services we are basically bucking up against lots of resistance whether it's around 1.32 1.37 to 1.39 it will be a slog here if we break through it could catapult higher as you see on the chart of 10s maybe the most important chart is the dollar index. this notion of tapering should be bullish for the dollar index pushing it higher. but here it sits on a one-month low. this chart starts in early june. we're sitting on early support right around 92. the dollar is acting week.

also with us is the chief economist at grant thornton and rick santelli. diane, one of the drawbacks of this report is so much has happened since the data was collected. number one, a jobs report that disappointed and, number two, a may score storm that has clearly affected the economy's losses from the south and up through the mid-atlantic states as well. >> that's one of the things we're worried about. we know from hurricane katrina the impact lingered september into october and this was further reaching that's important to keep in at a time when everything had been looking very, very good >> rick, the fed in its most recent commentary, it seems to me -- it has a dewell mandate and maximum employment it does feel to me this particular fed is more interested in max mum eimum empn than the later what is the next us between achechg full employment and continuing to buy securities in the open market? is he not hearing? >> reporter: oh, no, i have you. on the latter, tyler, i would say that's the question. every trader i talked to asks how is buying $120 bill

to bring us up to date let's go to rick santelli at the cme. >> yes, september is certainly bringing much higher yields, and it is not only in the u.s., it's -- think about it this way. ten-year note yields started out themond at 1.31. up 21 basis points 30 years are up 15 boom yields went from opinion us 38 to minus 9. and guilds from 71.102 to plus 31 let's look at the tens this is important. after wednesday we still settle at 1.30. opened next day around 1.30. it wasn't until the bank of england got hawkish that everything started to pop. if you look at a month to date of tens and 30s you can see what i am talking about the european chart month to date of boones and yields up, up, up the reflation trade may be back. the reasons? they are all around us the easiest one look at the month to date of natural gas and crude oil. any questions. the dollar following interest rates moving to the up side. month date on the dollar index, up close to 2% >> there it goes, rick thank you. >>> let's get to movers we are watching today car max down more than 10%, the auto retailer missing earnings

let's get to rick santelli for all of it out of the cme >> yes, kelly. interesting statement regarding how we handicap the taper, but i'm not sure the taper does much with regard to inflationary pressures. today, we had a seven-year note auction. the auction was above average, but they curbed their enthusiasm considering that prices have dropped so substantially seven years were on sale but, they were very cautious. four and a half months, mid may, and if you look at all the yields, two years are at six-month highs. seven-years are four and a half month highs. tens at three and a half month highs. 30s at three and a half month highs. guild swing, 29-month high yields look at our ten-year break ooeeven in the u.s that's a year-to-date chart. looks like a 30-year bond chart. here's the rub let's pull back another nine years. when you look at a ten-year chart of break evens, it's easy to imagine that inflation is a lot stickier than companies seem to be expressing tyler, back to you >> thank you very much as we mentioned, the jump in bond yields so imminent

rick santelli. >>> the delta variant continues to delay the economy's return to normalcy new data looks at a key indicator affecting parents in the labor force. let's get to steve liesman with his back-to-school edition >> the back-to-school edition of the road back barometer, a fast growing number of school closings suggesting the delta variant is setting back hopes for a complete and full reopening. the road back barometer. 100,000 schools out there, but look at the growth rate. 140% in just a week. the last week about 700 or so schools and the average school being closed 8.7 days. while the number is small, it's accelerating and widespread. school closing span 35 states. concentrations in texas, georgia and throughout the south the purple dots make september closings many are recent. some, of course, have since reopened schools are reacting to the delta variant, about 52% of those schools that closed went virtual. 40% closed for at least some time because they didn't know what to do 5% just delayed the start. it's unclear how many parents are affected by the closings more women have

business inventories are out rick santelli's got that hey, rick. >> yes, inventories are a very importantre all monitoring some of the low inventories, especially in front of holiday season so the july business inventories coming in as expected, up half of 1% is a solid number. if we look at the entire year, it really has been all positive numbers, the smallest was in april up 0.10 of 1% as we try to replenish various parts of the pipeline of inventories. last month up 0.8 to 0.9 another thing up today, interest rates and energy prices. we want to pay close attention 1.34% on a ten-year, the area to monitor around 1.37 to 1.39% that zone is considered the best resistance, which means should we get above that area, maybe look for hotter interest rates mike. >> jthank you. we are 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three big movers we are watching starting with cisco shares, they are rising a day after the company's investor day credit suisse saying cisco poised to execute on the long-term guidance while ramping the recurring revenue streams. jpm as well. it opened up a quarter of

rick santelli here live at the cme hq in about a half a minute, we're going to be seeing the ultimate number, the august final for market services, pmi and composite pmi. we just came off of what was mostly a weak jobs report outside of several areas the one i focused on up 6/10 of 1% for average hourly earnings on a month over month basis. that data series was started in april of 2006. that very first month was up 6/10 since then there has been no reads that high until we reached covid. so today's number really historically is significant, and it may feed into that wage inflation spiral, which has pushed yields up from their initial response of moving lower. the numbers hitting the wires at 55.1 that's the services pmi, so we t take 55.2, the mid-month read and replace it with the read of 1/10 less. when it comes to the composite, 65.4 is the same as the mid-month read at 55.4 they're well off their post-covid highs but still above 50 expresses expansion versus contraction. "squawk on the street" will return after theseq■ that building you're trying to buy, - you should ten-x it. - t

rick santelli here live with breaking news at cme hq, our august final read on market pmi for manufacturinge toss out the mid-month 61.2, comes in 1/10 less and this is the lightest since april when we were 60.5. but here's the cautionary tale, whether it's this or chicago pmi yesterday or the fact that we're going to get more pmis and service pmis, the fact we're so far over 50 is a definite positive, even though, of course, many issues including supply chains and variants are pushing us back just a bit big story today, european yields continue to gain on u.s. yields and u.s. yields dropped rather dramatically in the time following the weak a jdpobs report "squawk on the street" will return after these messages. it's a thirteen-hour flight, that's not a weekend trip. fifteen minutes until we board. oh yeah, we gotta take off. you downloaded the td ameritrade mobile app so you can quickly check the markets? yeah, actually i'm taking one last look at my dashboard before we board. excellent. and you have thinkorswim mobile- -so i can finish analyzing the risk on this position. you two are all

rick santelli here this is breaking news.is our september read on chicago pmi expected out at 65.0, coming in a bit light at 64.7 that's actually the lightest it's been since february when we were a bit until 60, the high watermark going back to 1973, that was 75.2, just to give you an idea, but we should put some perspective on it. anything over 50 is expansion. even though it's been much stronger by historical terms, it's still running pretty good "squawk on the street" will return after these messages. america! after the past year-ish, everyone deserves something new! so at&t is giving everyone our best deals on every iphone including the iphone 13 pro with its amazing camera. like everyone that worked from home. learned a new hobby... or welcomed a new family member. they were all out of dogs. so... our deals are for everyone! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing customers our best deals on every iphone, including the epic iphone 13 pro on us. it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lif

factory orders are out just a moment ago, and rick santelli has that for us as well. july read on factory orders up 0.4 of 1%. that's better than expectations, but it's definitely lagging. in the rearview mirror up 1.5, weakest since april when it was minus 110. we know why. a lot of issues affecting manufacturing, issues on supply chain. august auto sales weren't very solid, so you can see how leading in from july we continue to see these weaker trends and if you strip out transportation, there is a marked improvement so we could see how airlines and airplanes and aerospace enter into this. it's up 0.8 of 1%. july final on durable goods at minus one-tenth of 1% which is the same as the mid-month read if we look at ex-transportation on durables, the same effect it pops up to up 0.8 as well finally, capital goods orders non-defense ex-airport a proxy for business spending, had a goose egg in the mid-july read now 0.10 of 1% now up 0.9 of 1% morgan barks back to you. >>> the markets more broadly the s&p and nasdaq notching new record highs joining us vance howard at how

." >>> rick santelli has durable goods hitting the tape what do you see?etter number for the preliminary readout, in the form of durable goods this is the august preliminary, expecting a number more than double up, 1.8, and last month's final read gets upgraded from minus 110, all the way up to a path to 1% if we strip out transportation, it does come back to reality a bit. instead of being up 0.5%, taking out transportation, knocked it down to up 0.2 and we all know we used this to plug in business spending, what it's doing, it's up 0.5%, and a very healthy revision to our last look, our final read last month upgraded 0.3%, and also power up 0.7, and the last look remains -- to summarize, transportation obviously kicked into the headline, and then pulled back out when we removed it, but all things being equal, we are looking at good preliminary numbers. we see interest rates in the ten-year have moved up they should move up. we had a big breakout last week. we had our close on thursday and a weekly close both back to back above that very significant resis

>> rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago.most important inflation gauge for the month of august .3 lighter than expected and the .5, of course, was one of those numbers that started to creep down with the high-water mark was up .9 if we strip out the all-important food and energy, it really moved back down from up .3 to up only .1. up .1 is the lightest it's been since february we started out the year at zero. now let's go to the important year over year year over year, cpi up 5.3%. 5.3. that's .1 lighter than 5.4 and 5.4, our last look, was the highest year-over-year reach since 2008 finally, strip out food and en energy, you're left with year-over-year read of 4%, follows up 4.3, and that followed up 4.5, a june number, the highest in 30 years. you can see, becky, we've eased off on the year-over-year, which is still high. i can honestly use the word transient. what's transient most likely the effects of the delta variant that are keeping prices from accelerating faster amongst suppliers. when all the dust settles one, two,

including tony guyer, jeffrey sherman, liz ann sonders and rick ryder >> great market voices there fist let's get to the big stories. mike santelli tracking the selloff. steve liesman with highlights from the senate testimony. mike, pretty broad market and focus on tech. >> yeah. absolutely broad this was not a typical clean rotation type move out of tech however really didn't do much but to get to last week's pullback zone. the most direct tangible thing going on today sa global lift in bond yields. that is weighing most heavily on the big growth names and news from washington and unclear if that feeds that directly into that we had that rebound off the september 23 low of last year. we didn't regain all of what was lost prior to that decline and then you had another drop and retested it. it is not an unusual dynamic to roll back to that area we are still late september. i don't want to minimize what's going on in the news or the economic and central bank effects but you have to keep in mind there's market dynamics look at the s&p tech sector relative to the overall s&p 500. you will see where tech is pulling back from on a rela