we'll see if this can hold keep a close high on what's happening with the treasury market today rick santelli has been talking about the spread tightening as the two-year moves up. >>> that does it for us today. make sure you join us tomorrow but right

rick santelli is out in chicago with the latest today. yes, no matter where you look it seems like there is an inflation story or notions of passing costs onto consumers but we did have a 20-year bond auction today. it wasn't terrific if you look at an up tre day of 20-year yields you could see at 1:00 eastern rates popped up if you stick with the longer maturities, whose yields are higher today 30-year bonds are trying to catch up this goes back to mid june the reason i am showing it we still haven't taken out that october 8th high ten-year note yields have. if you go back to march 2020 this shows you what ground we have covered not only have we taken out that october high we are virtually sitting at five-month high yields between then and now we have hit a low of minus 50 basis points, a high of 1 and three quarters finally, the dollar index. the fifth down day in the last six sessions primarily because of some of the strength in the euro currency. but it did touch a one-year high in september and has been drifting lower ever since. back

let's kick thing off with rick santelli it is the talk of the day, the 30-year is down ten basis pointses, yes, for a while it was down close to a dozen basis points let's start with five-ier. $61 billion auction today. i gave an a to demand, a is in apple. you can see at 1:00 eastern how the yield dropped. but it had already been dropping there was not only no concession, meaning there was no push to higher yields to draw buyers in. they were just there, even with the rally. if you look at ten-year notes over two weeks, well, we haven't traded under 1.55% since the 15th of october. look at 30-year bonds. they are on pace for the lowest yield close since the 23rd of september. kelly, they haven't traded below 2% intraday in exactly one month. but the necks chart sums it all up month to date of 30-year yields minus 2-year yields. long maturity and short maturity associated with the fed. it dropped 40 basis points from 1.8 to 1.45 in two and a half weeks, since columbus day. it is a huge move and accentuates how the short maturity's yields has been trading much more aggressive, down in pr

i want to go to rick santelli. what can you tell us >> you know what, it wasn't so bad. the problem with this particular auction, and let's go through it, 60 billion of two-year notes kicking off 183 billion of supply this week it got a little messy right at the end, right a few seconds before 1:00 eastern. the yield at the dutch auction point, 481 it really was trading closer to 4.8, .48 plus. we give a demerit for that it was quite strong, the best since may of this year 58.1 on indirect, very strong. of course, those were foreign entities 22.3 on direct you know, that's like mutual funds, insurance companies that's the strongest since november of 2019 the dealers take less than 20% so i gave the auction a b-minus. it really wasn't a bad auction, and i think the best way to look at this is we continue to see the short maturities are getting a bit nervous as they try to reflect not only the taper, which is more of a long maturity issue in my opinion, but when the fed is actually going to start raising rates. you know, the home price index today was the highest going bac

how did it go, rick santelli >> you know what it is a strange auction. the grade, i the grade, i gave t a d plus 2.10, 210 was the yield at the dutch auction, but the one issue, market was rallying, pricing around 2.06. we ended up with a higher yield and lower price. it was the high one issued of the day. the pricing was horrible but some of the internals were pretty good. if you look at 64.8 in direction, all of those foreign buyers, the best since july of '20. if you looked at dealer amounts under 20%, it was very solid now, we know the auction didn't go well. look at the two-day of ten-year note yields. boy, you see they popped from 1.62 to 1.64, and 1.67 was the high after the inflation news out of germany last night. we're on pace for the highest close on the chart going back to mid may. bund yields, the highest german inflation since october of 1974, bund yields dropped a bit as you see on the chart when you open it up and go back 30 months you can see we are hovering at some of the highest levels since may of 2019 kelly, back to you >> even with

though, still before 1.6% for the ten-year as you will see there in just a moment yes, i promise rick santellirick. >> up deed, the starter maturities, two year, three year, five year, seven year, higher yields and a bit lower. the longer are unchanged, the ten-year at 1.63, and the 30-year bond is higher in yield, a bit of curve steepening. looking at a one week of tens and understand that the high water mark so far even though yields bounced down off of 1.67 resistance several times open the chart to march of '21. 1.74, is the high water mark of march of '21 that was the highe yield close going back to january of '20 bund yields, intraday, up to minus eight. today. last week, .07 finally, we look at the break evens, we have been talking about them a lot ten-year break evens are hovering just below 3.7. that's the highest since 2006. five-year break evens are now over 3%, the highest on record, as we continue to monitor that ponder this, that reverse repo parking lot of cash nowhere near a record today of $1.4 trillion. we are also talking about $1.6 trillion of new spending if manchin goes a

internals were pretty strong but pricing was e■weak rick santelli here rick, what do you make of it >6 basisl■ points that's virtually the high capstone to going back to precovid, february +2020, eveno■ though it is tene■ basisu■■■poi■ so after its worst levels. t■ft what was said by the ecb and christine lagarde and you follow thet(■guidance, the market they did that's important ma1[hat's why all of these curves are lpflattening. the euro currency moved to a witnesá hotter inflation in germany and the notion that no matter what christine lagarde says=. or any central banks say,x■ many investors believe they are going to have to be morex■ aggressiven raising interest rates in a tighter time line than they are currently discussing >> thank you, rick xd■antelli. >>> oil falling to a two week low as we go to the close for that market.l■ pippa stevens. >> oil is in the red again traders are pointing to thatÑ■ jump in u.s. invento.■÷■and the iran nuclear talks as weighing on prices here wti had been as low as $80.58 earlier in the session so almost testing out that $80 level right now it i

. ♪ >>> welcome back 0 to "squawk box," rick santelli here with live breaking news top-tier economicw, 280,000. and a week in arrears also a post-covid low, 2,243,000, in terms of gdp, 2.6% is what people were looking for. not that many months ago we were looking for a number closer to 7% this is a disappointment, up 2%. only up 2% and of course, this is the advanced look. there will be two more looks to pencil the puzzle in with a more permanent mark. with consumption, it's robust. c conass consumption, following a 12% increase the next two, maybe the most important in my opinion, the price index goes back to 1947.last look at 6.1%, well, it was the highest in 40 years. it moderates, the 5.6%, still hotter than expects, finally, we look at the core personal consumption expenditure, quarter over quarter, a fed favorite on inflation. it was 6.1%. last look, 4.5%, this time, 6.1 happened to be a 38-year high. so the moderation was exactly as expected as we look at all of this, brazil raised its rates 150 basis points, ecb, no, don't need to. bank of japan, we're good, thank you. we don

to the bond market where yields are rise, too, and rick santelli is tracking the action for it at cme hi, tyler yes. short maturities like two-year, five-year notes, their yields are a bit lower today. the prices are higher and if you go back to early spring of 2020, right as covid hit, that's the place where comping twos and fives have come down which means the curve is steepening because long data treasury yields are higher hovering at 1.63%, we close, this would be the highest yield close for a ten-year note going back to june let's call it four months. and 161 is the current high close from weak jobs friday. if you look overseas, a different story. bund yields covering at minus ten basis points the second highest close really in the last couple of weeks, but we're very close to the highest yields going back to may of 2019 finally, it was all about the dollar strength, but not anymore. bund yields moving higher have reversed the year and pulled it up to a three-week high and finally, bond yields, 30-year bond, it is hovering a t some of the highest yields, but still comping back on

rick santelli has all the latest out at the cme >> yes, the short maturities are definitely below somehighest he can pas turn notes are only basis point away from some of the highest intraday levels going all the way back to may, five plus months the big story today is all the plop, plop, fizz fizz, all those alka-seltzer tablets in a the fed is dropping in the water glasses because the inflation rates continue to hop and they are hot, hot, hot. here is the five-year break even inflation rate between five year notes and five year continues. it looks like it is going to challenge and beat an yowl time high going back to record keeping in 2005 and the ten-year break even at 2.6% is at the highest level since the fall of 2012 call it transient if you want, but most people are calling it -- related. >>> democrats scrambling to come up with a tax plan to pay for their social spending package. details on where they stand and what the d.c. gridlock means for investors. when "power lunch" returns ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ with a bit more thought we can all do our part to keep plastic out of the ocean. >>> oil m

really strong, bond yields are dropping even more rick santelli with the results rick >> yes, kelly.ormally one would suspect on a day where the market's rallying in treasuries, pushing yields down it would take away any concession to be aggressively bidding in an auction but untrue today. i gave the auction an a as in apple. $61 billion, five years, priced at the dutch auction $1.157. the one issue, the market had a lone of 1.16 before the auction results. as you see the big drop on your screen at 1:00 eastern many believe there's so many moving parts, especially on what's considered a short maturity or mid market in the five year that have to do with not only inflation and finance and the fed, but just general demand for the instrument, which is really showing up and it tells us a lot about investors, that they are looking at maybe the recent move, not necessarily questioning the long-term implications of inflation but whether the market can stay at these levels can they try to dance between the raindrops. finally, if i look at all of the metrics to this auction, everything other t

rick santelli tracking the action i guess it is a winning streak if you want yields to go up, rick >> are short the marketing price and yields is going up it would be a winning streak if you are looking for the long to go down, not so much. this chart starts on the 15th. we will go back six sessions every session has higher yields. we are up eight basis points on the week, down five on the day hence looks like the streak may be broken. if we think about 30s minus tens, that spread is called the knob many believe that it has predictive values. here's an eight-month chart of the knob on top offive-year note yields. the flatter the knob gets -- right now it is the flattest it has been in almost two years we see upregard pressure on rates. that's something to pay attention to in terms of inflation, it has been the buzz phrase for many months now, but, boy, the markets are really showcasing it here's the five-year break even comparing five-year notes to five-year tips, treasury inflation protected securities this started in record keeping in '02 approaching 3% it hags never been higher. th

ten-year note auction top of the hour rick santelli, how did it go >> well, not as aggressive as i thought. i thought it would been an a plus, but a b plus isn't bad, kelly. they really jumped at this and it made sense. we had a big run we moved up to the 1.6 almost without a setback and of course the weak numbers on friday gave pause and investors jumped all over it let's go through the internals the auction yield 1.584. pretty spot on to where it was trading but all the metrics, whether it was pick up or indirects, all were very solid dealers take 11.2% now it isn't the smallest amount, but it's close to maybe the fourth smallest amount in the last ten years, so very solid. you don't want dealers taking it you want investor rs cs cleanine table. i think what this tells me is that after two-week later reports, there's going to be significant results on the yields on the 1.66 level so watching investors step in with a four-week concession makes perfect sense. >> there's the ten-year now, 158 in the wake of all that. thank you very much. >>> it was good news and bad news for boeing. orders

. >>> let's get to the bond market which hit key levels itself this week rick santelli has the latest kelly, you know, this morning we had some important data the august read on personal income spending. one of the fed favorites, overrear core consumption expenditure and inflation gauge. it is the highest in 30 years. you see the chart going back to the spring of 1991 it had the effect of steepening the curve a bit if you look at 30s minus fivest, the 30 year, it's steepened today on the week, 30 years are up we are at 1.48 the ten-year is only up 2 on the week you can see the drop in rates after yesterday's close is bringing the dollar down a bit all things equal, the dollar is still up 3/4 of a percent on the week tyler, back to you >> rick, thank you very much have a great weekend ahead on "power lunch," everybody, welcome to october. thank goodness september is over, and the start of a new quarter. what are some of wall street's favorite stocks going into the fourth quarter we will lay those out next we will discuss the market's direction with two of the best we'll be rig bk.htac

the new york stock exchafg good mix today as we watch amazon and apple right now, let's get to rick santellial read our midmonth read was 71.4 it has improved. 71.7 the problem is, sequentially, lower than 72.8 for saept. it move said from 77.9, downward to 77.7 and on what lies ahead, or future expectations midmonth, 67.2 it improved to 67.9. now, the pricing issues, which were super hot this morning and personal consumption expenditure, year over year. on the one-year inflation, that was a 13-year high although, we look at the five-to 10-year inflation rate, it's moderated for thum recent highs. but the midmonth read moved to 2.9. 3% is the current high water mark and that basically is a 10-year high we have moderated on the longer view interest rates are moving up rather aggressively. really selling off, pushing their yields closer and closer to zero. they look like they may have the highest yields >> we are 30 minutes into the trading session. we're going to start with oil major chevron posting the highest quarterly profit in eight years, amid surging energy prices western digital, meant

we'll see if this can hold keep a close high on what's happening with the treasury market today rick santelli has been talking about the spread tightening as the two-year moves up. >>> that does it for us today. make sure you join us tomorrow but right >>> we have a big show today we were conversations with ceos of several companies we start with hood, though, bigger than expected loss, though revenue was up 35 the shape of crypto goes from 51%, sticking around and trading crypto there aren't too many people gambling, the dogecoin was that -- i was impressed by the call i was impressed by the call. i had been hoping that younger people would come in, stick with it, buy long-term stocks vlad is doing a retirement portal, but it's not done. i'm not saying nothing is being done i'm saying if you read the conference call, you think it's a fact, and david, if it's a fad, well, what can i say? they have a lot of people, 22 million, who don't have a lot of money in their accounts, and this was a quarter where it was crypto or nothing. >> right, right. i guess the alternative argument is that they ar

rick santelli here at cme hq on manufacturing, 59.2, a bit of a miss sequentially following last monthan expected at 58.2 and 54.9 last month. let's compress it into the composite, also a couple points higher than our final read at the end of last month at 55.0. at 1.67%, ten-year notes are down a few on the day, but up ten basis points on the week, and bund yields hit an intraday high yield of minus 0.7, the highest intraday trade since may of 2019. "squawk on the street" returns after these messages t all. you have to deal with higher expectations and you have to lower wait times. with ibm, you can do both. your business can unify apps and data across your clouds. so you can address supply chain issues in real time, before they impact your bottom line. predicting and managing operational issues that's why so many businesses work with ibm. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ it's another day. and anything could happen. it could be the day you welcome 1,200 guests and all their devices. or it could be the day there's a cyberthreat. only comcast business' secure network solutions give you the power of sd-wan and

challenging conditions so, their stock down on that news carl >> thank you very much and thank you rick santelliother hour of "squawk on the street. so, we have a beat on home sale said, confidence, combine that with q3 earnings and guidance and we have highs once again on the dow and s&p. >> there are so many big movers to talk about today. we're just going to start with three right now. we're going to start with lockheed martin, which is sinking. down almost 10%, amid mixed results. revenue fell short guidance is what is in focus for the biggest weapons maker. and lowered, not only 2021 revenue guidance, but the outlook for 2022 sales as well as it's reassessed the five-year business plan. and in agreement to deliver fewer fighter jets than previously planned those are some of the things factoring in here. multinational industrial giant, 3m, on the top and bottom line that's increased demand. stocks about six-tenths of 1%. higher inflation, supply chain bottlenecks, commodity prices all due way on the bottom line we're going to end with a health care name. lilly did spend more money on researc

rick santelli here live on the cme hq and pmi, m.a.r.k.i.t., it's 60.5, an improvement of two tenthstially to the final read of august, that was 61.1, so sequentially a by lower, but still better off that this the back month. yields have dipped a bit they're still up several basis points, and more data to come, university of michigan construction spending, it sm a the top of the hour. "squawk on the street" will return after these messages. before we talk about tax-smart investing, what's new? -well, audrey's expecting... -twins! grandparents! we want to put money aside for them, so...change in plans. alright, let's see what we can adjust. ♪♪ we'd be closer to the twins. change in plans. okay. mom, are you painting again? you could sell these. lemme guess, change in plans? at fidelity, a change in plans is always part of the plan. >>> cathie woo shorter term, exxon, with filing says higher oil prices are going to add as much as 1.5 billion to earnings and saying $100 billion oil could start the next macro crisis >> it's certainly possible i speak to enough oil companies that are conc

rick santelli live at cme hq awaiting our september reading on leading economic indicators we've had, it is up 0.2, up 0.2% 17 months in a row now where we haven't had a negative number. a good run that started in may of 2020 with 3.1 which happened to be the highest ever going back to 1959 now, for the september read on existing home sales, let's head east to diana olick. diana? >> rick, existing home sales in september rose 7% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 6.29 million, that's a beat, the street was looking at 3 3.7% the realtors are pointing to august brief drop in mortgage rates. these would be signed contracts from july and august, not only lower rates but that rates would begin to rise this fall, which they have and are significantly higher the inventory of homes for sale dropped to 1.27 million, down 13% year over year and a 2.4 month supply continues topush prices higher. the median existing price, 352,800, up 13.3% yearover year, but it's actually the smallest annual gain we've seen all year and part of it is that mix of what's selling, very little selling on t

we'll see if this can hold keep a close high on what's happening with the treasury market today rick santelliday. make sure you join us tomorrow but right

rick santelli standing by in chicago with economic data. ial jobless claims dropped as revised 6,000 originally we had 293 last week, revised to 296,000, subtract 6 we are now at 290,000 a. post-covid low continuing claims dropped 122,000 to 2 million 481,000 also a post-covid low. if we look at philly business outlook for the month of october, philly fed activity was a bit disappointing, 23.8, a bit lower than expected and sequentially since our last like in '07 even though it isn't a bad number, put it in this context, the high water mark, the 48-year high in april was over 50. this number is less than half of that interest rates are 1.66 on 10s, that's unchanged from a 168 inter-day high that takes us all the way back to the second week of may for a comp. sul li sully, back to you >> coming up, richard lefrak will join us live and tell us about this new unusual piece of public art there it is, in new jersey, what is that? we'll show you and tell you. shhh hey businesses! you all deserve something epic! so we're giving every business, our