as rates continue to jie rate around a possible russian invasion against prospect of rate hikes rick santelli is tracking the action as always rick >> listen, geopolitical issues are certainly effecting equities the treasury complex has its own issues, called the federal reserve. with regard to whether 50 is on or off the table, difficult to tell if you want to summarize everything going on in treasuries, look at 10s minus 2s under 40 basis points. that flattening is aggressive. 7 basis points flatter listen, if you're holding an auction, hold an action when there's geopolitical forces at work flight to safety trade on steroids we had a two year note auction to the tune of 52 billion, kicking off 155 billion of supply in 5s and 7s yet to come. the auction yield for 2 year was 1.553. highest yield at an auction since december of 2019 and it was an a, demand no matter which category you look at was strong. i will pick a couple 65.6, indirect bidders that's the one to pay attention to that's the second highest level of indirect bidders since 2009 and the winner by far and away was how empty the

rick santelli with the results rick >> boy, the foreign interest is the key to this auction. 50 billion three-year notes. the first leg of the february funding, this tranche is threes, tens and 30s of 110 billion. 1.592% higher than the unissued it tailed a bit. i gave it a b plus the current 2.4 3 roughly, but the foreign category referenced, my database goes back 20 years 68.5 i have one more month that equals that. that was in november of '09. none that are higher terrific and 11.1 is the other extreme. the direct bidders was the smallest perrecentage of april since 20 20. the dealers only took 20.3% of the auction. that's the smallest amount they've ever taken on my 20-year run of history and the reason is because those foreigners pretty much ran the table first. kelly, back to you >> they are keeping our borrowing costs down and stimulating our economy. they are taking the sting out of the tightening cycle for now rick, thank you very much as always our rick santelli. >>> now to pfizer. shares at one point were flirting with the worst day since summer 2020 after mixed resulted this

rick santelli has the results. >> this was the 22nd auction of 20-year bonds. it was 19 billion of them and the yield was 2 .396 the grade was a b minus. and everything about it was just slightly above average that yield 2.396, exactly where the one issued market was. it didn't gain or lose on the grading scale for pricing. that's always a big component. we did see the bid to cover indirect bids and dealers take down all better than ten auction average. but there was one thing that made it a b for the b minus. that was direct bidders. unlike indirect bidders with the foreign interest that you and i are always so interested in, direct bidders are like mutual funds. primary dealers that go right in, and that was at 21%. the highest ever out of any of the 22, 20-year auctions this is the last and only auction of a coupon this week, and i will say this. it's all green with respect to buying, because every yield on the curve right now is lower and priced higher than we closed yesterday. back to you. >> all right rick, thank you very much. rick santelli. >>> a news f

treasury bonds 192 on the ten year at the moment out to rick santelli with more rick >> yes before we get to the charts, anybody notice the rally in treasury yields in the last few minutes? seven-year auction yeah 50 billion seven years today completing 1785 b5 million in supply who expects less flight to safety and auction, seems like two-fer, doesn't it go through highlights. 1.905 yield. the yield traded in one issue market 1.195. a whole one paces point turned to the screws, which means higher yields lower price. in this case lower yields, higher price a good thing a-plus auction best indirect bidding, of course, entities since '21, direct like pension funds. biggest bid percentage since june of 2019 by far and away winner, dealers who collect leftovers small amount 12.3%. smallest amount since january '18. stellar. get to the charts. two day two year pushed yield down last few minutes. now down 10.5 basis points low yield overnight 1.45 now down as i said a little over 10 go to the ten year we're down about 7 basis points you see that the curve is steepened about three basis poin

. >> thank you >>> let's turn to rick santelli for the results of the five-year auction. we heard what charlie thought about bond yields. let's get to rick with the numbers. >> it went over quite well, actually it's 53 billion five-year notes. 1.88% at the auction it just tailed the smidge. it was around 1.882. in the when issued market. but that demotion or that degrade to the grade is small compared to the other big positives. we see the indirect bidders most associated with foreign buyers was the second best since september of 2017. last auction was the best. so there's a recent trend of foreigners really stepping up to the plate. that category that captured my imagine gags was that only 13 .8% was leftovers for the dealers to take down that's the smallest amount in my 20-year database and it speaks volumes that even though yields are up today, even though yields were up yesterday, when stocks are down and geo politics is running hot, hot, hot, you can still find plenty of buyers at the right price in these auctions back to you. >> well-said, rick thank you, rick santel

rick santelli tracking the results. what are we learning >> well, let's put it this way we don't need to pour any tabasco on this one to make it hot. this auction is hot, hot, hot. i gave it an a plus. and that's with two out of four categories just being slightly above average. you'll see why in a second the yield at this first primary auction, not a reopening of 37 billion tens, 1.904. the one issue market was trading well above 1.92. so it really priced aggressively and the bid to cover at 2.68 was the best since may of 2020 that's only slightly above average. the direct bidders at 15% was actually a little below average. and this is the highest yield since july 10, 2019, auction okay now the good parts the indirect bidders you know them well, represents foreign interests. 77.6 my 20 plus year database of auctions doesn't have one auction higher than that and 7.4, that's the percentage the primary dealers ended up taking which is next to nothing. the buffet was cleaned out the investors, especially those indirect bid

rick santelli here with breaking nudes. our january final read on markit services and composite pmi we take the mid month read and toss it. 50.9 on services now turns into 51.2! that is the final read squishlly following december, which was 57.6 this is the softest read since july of 2020 on the composite side, 51.1. versus a final read last month of 57.0. the 50.8 mid month read gets tossed and like the services pmi, this is the lowest level since july of 2020 with respect to the ism numbers, they would be out in 15 minutes. we can do a comparison remember, "squawk on the street" remember, "squawk on the street" will return in two minesut what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq ♪♪ the chewy box comes today! calm down lenny. we just ordered it yesterday. (gasp) oven baked apple biscuits! hold me leroy! biscuits!! get fast fr

back below 2% as investors look for safety let's send it to rick santelli rick >> we need the set the on exactly how we interpret the fall in rates. remember we had the january read on housing starts and permits today and in the best levels since 2006 starts -- permits were at the best levels since 2006 look at a two day of 10s drifting lower prices are higher. there is a safe harbor trade there but what's interesting is looking at a bigger chart for the month seeing that we are hugging very close to the high yield. 2.05 is tuesday. here's some nuance here's 10s minus 2s. the spread we can see most of the news hitting the curve is flattening. why is that important? investors are more reluctant to buy a 2-year note than a 10-year note i find that fascinating that we have this dynamic. down 7 basis points in 10s down 4 in 2s what that tells me is more fearful of the fed than the geo political situation. two-day chart mostly sideways. risk on, risk off looking at the stock market back to you. >> thank you let's check now on the commodity close. you might expect oil to be higher today but

let's turn to the bond market with yields rising despite the tensions and get the latest from rick santelliyou know, you really grabbed the important topic of the couple of weeks going through the geopolitical issues. we all know that russia-ukraine should be a flight to safety and anything regarding the fed on the other side should be pushingrates up because three weeks from today most likely looking at higher rates. what wins? the fed wins hands down. the s&p at current levels down 314 from the time around noon on friday the 11th when the first rumors of russia and ukraine hit. let's go to the two week chart 2-year notes in the high 50s look at 10s around 2.03. about 11 basis points lower in yield. the dollar index around 95.75. a bit above 96 now yields have drifted a smidge lower. but for all practical purposes at or higher than a 2-year note. kelly, back to you. >> thank you maybe the link is energy prices. on that note let's check in on oil. pippa stevens with the latest. >> oil with a gain but closing well off the highs of day. follows that first round of u.s. sanctions against russi

bob pisani at the nyse in a moment let's get to rick santelli from the cme. rick >> absolutely. so many things going on and much of it is technical and will get to that think about the minus 321,000. not very good. as a matter of fact many now whispering that friday's number might be weak. look at the time of 8:15 eastern yields dropped to right around the 1.15 level but eventually coming back and look that low out dropped to 1.13 and the green arrows are bringing yields up after the 8:15 data came out we dropped to that 1.77 level coming back an hour later it got aggressive traded down the 1.74 ear year to date talking about the double top and indeed it is starting to become something many traders are talking about mid-january to the end of january. two tops on the right-hand side around 1.87% are the high yield close back zoom the chart to the end of 2019 but they considerably become more important should we start to close under is 1.70 level we may lock that high in for a while and traders think friday's number could do we need to pay attention kelly, back to you. >> thank yo

rick santelli is tracking the action rick >> yes dom, there's a lot on the treasury plate whether it'srsday when we had the bullard pop or friday, the headlines. looking at a two-week chart and 2-year the maturity to pay attention to you can see how it jumped on thursday and the new established range is intact. look to the two-week chart sliding a bit as the red is deeper in the equity complex and if we consider what's been going on with 10s to 2s, it is hovering under 40 basis points on track for 22 flat as you see on the chart and if you want to pay attention to the fed and the fact that they have made a bit of a blunder, all central banks that overstimulated, look no further than the yield curves. short maturities high against the long end and looking to japan here's a chart starting early 2016 because the last time of .25%. the bank of japan is now offering to buy anything when the yields get above .25%. our own central bank thought about that and finally the dollar index getting a lot of air play as a safe harbor currency and still under pre-covid levels back to you. >> thank you

and from netflix to ralph lauren but relief may be on the way thanks to foreign central banks rick santellihe details. rick >> yes, kelly. runway just got much shorter if you were looking for the ecb to begin removing stimulus in earn echt in 2 earnest in 2023. yields popped. more importantly, looks as though there's been a big pivot, look at it, intraday versus eurodollar boy, did it pop. same chart dollar index. same dmachart in reverse as the dollar drops why? almost 58% of the dollar index three week of versus dollar an pace to close against the dollar in three weeks zoom back to the november of last year. you can see how close we are to testin testing levels we haven't seen since pre-thanksgiving and much more aggressive than this. current pace, might be an air pact over the next several-plus sessions to get it up to the 116 level. finally, dollar index same period back to november could see how vulnerable that may be's down to 95 if not 94 we'll have to monitor definitely see if the same companies are as happy when the dollar weakens. i have my doubts, kelly. back to you. >> fair enou

today's inflation numbers sending ripples through the bond market, as the ten-year yield crosses 2% rick santelli is tracking the action it's not just the ten-years, but the two-years, sirs. >> it's everything, it's across the globe. they're like tsunami waves in my opinion. today is an interesting today, because, as steve and many on cnbc have been pointing out, we can see what investors are thinking, because we can follow the charts here's what i mean look as an inter of the two-year the bullard pop jumps out at you as well. that's super-significant look at a ten-year intraday, certainly you see the volatility, but the bullard pop sort of disappears it shows you that investors are paying very close attention to those areas of the yield curve, that are going to be responsive, and that's what steve is talking about. it's almost like market gu guidance. >> early august of 2019, but look at a 30-year bond it's nowhere really near those levels on the left side of the chart,'s we open it up from 2019 midsummer. the reason is there's still buying in that 30-year, toil interest in the long-dated treasu

get to the federal pant of experts tiffany wilding and greg demarso, mike santoli with us and rick santelli to bring us the headlines asia they cross. steve liesman will join us in a few minutes. rick, what are you looking for out of the minutes >> it gets tough because in a way the january meeting and the minutes thereon might be considered a bit old because we have had a big jobs report and updates on inflation numbers, both hot every release had any pricing component is rather on the hot side and especially february 4th on the get them greg, there's been a tremendous amount of heavy breathing when and how much interest rates will rise has it been overdone in the media? >> i think possibly. >> balance sheet cuts are -- the first basic headlines and the wire services have to do with the balance sheet and completely core lates with everybody's question marks, $9 trillion and the quantitative tightening is something that could really start to bite and those minutes did discuss that i don't know that you're going to see many discussions with the half-point hike. i'll let you -- see another on

some lower yields, constructive fed-speak, though full knowledge that cpi is tomorrow morning rick santelliinals for the wholesale inventories, which mid month read was 2.1, now gets replaced with 2.2%, so one tenth of improvement that will sequentially will follow 1.7 in november if you're keeping score, up to 2.2 is actually quite large. the biggest it's ever been on a month-over-month change was up 2.5% that was just this past october. now, when it comes to the sales side, the number is up 0.2 this is a huge miss. we're looking for a number about five times, six times as large as that and obviously that is following an upward revision of 1.7 to our november read november 1.7, december only up 0.2. why is this all so important you'll recall two weeks ago we had or first look at fourth quarter gdp. up a whop 6.9% a good part of that was inventory building this being a december number, we need to keep tally morgan, back to you. >> and we will thank you, rick santelli. >>> >>> chip potly popping, hiking prices against to offset inflation and not seeing any impact on demand so far. those shar

rick santelli here with breaking news our december read on construction spending expected to be up 0.6omes in way light up 0.2% that is the weakest level since minus 1.1 february of 2021 a very weak way to finish the year, although it's had real bright spots in august and september. for ims, for the month of january, manufacturing comes in at 57.6. 57.6, sequentially, that follows 58.8 which is our december final read and it's a smidge better than we were looking for if we look at the january prices paid, this might be the most awaited aspect of this database. it definitely came in much, much, much higher than expected. we're expecting the number at 67 the whisper number was supposed to be lower. and here it comes at 76.1. 76.1 that is the highest level since august when it was 79.4. and if we look at new orders, 57.9, sequentially following 61.0 a bit plight and obviously lower sequentially let's finish it off with the employment reports with the jobs report this is very important. 54.5 following sequentially, 53.9, it's better than expected and sequentially higher, maybe that will fo

market we go, the ten-year, its yield holding on to that level above 1.9%, 1.92% or thereabouts rick santelliicago hi, rick >> hi, tyler yeah, a two-day chart is very important here shows us several things. shows us the huge jump we had on a much better-than-expected jobs report were their caveats sure but the fact is that reckless endangerments have held up they held that pop as a matter of fact, tyler's pointing to 190. we settle at 1.91. you have 7s, 0s, 20s, and 30s higher yield prices than friday. if we stay above 1.91, which will be fresh -- show the chart going back to the end of 2019, it will be a fresh 25-month high-yield close boy, you want to talk about records, you have to look overseas here's the 10-year overseas. today was the tenth session in a row that yields closed higher. as you can see on this chart, that was a fresh three-year high it closed at 0.23% that is positive the two-year shots in europe narrowly missed ten in a row higher yields. it was a bit lower today, so the street broke it nine in a row. and the difference between 10s and boons, maybe this is the most importa

what a wild week, rick santelli. >> yes it is the curve.t the last three sessions for 2-year from intraday high yields down to 1.43 the 10-year just referenced look at 2.06 the high yield down to a whisker under 1.92 and something unusual is happening. real yields for so a 10-year minus we have positive yields for 2 weeks in 30-year bonds break even is 2.12 hovering at 2.24 looking at a two-day chart the tips auction shot up to 20 positive basis points. something to pay attention to. finally, when's the last time we closed at the levels on the 30 year craziness of the first wave of the virus. dollar index is the leading character in flight to safety trades and hovering at nice levels but unchanged on the week tyler, back to you. >> have a great weekend. oil closing for the day and not really reacting to russia concerns hi, pippa. >> hey was an active session and you wouldn't know it by looking at the closing numbers. wti swung 4% the contract is down .6% at 91.18. brent crude is up .6% at $93.52. both are still lower for the week snapping e

rick santelli, thank you we are 30 minutes into the trading session.ng in light of the geopolitical situation that is unfolding. energy prices surging after russia's attack on ukraine with brent popping above that $100 barrel price we saw levels like this in 2014. so 103.09 which is the world benchmark. u.s. crude not far behind. mo gold spot prices jumping to the highest levels in over a year as investors continue to seek out safe havens. 1938 is the level there. and finally don't forget wheat hitting a more than nine-year high, meaning prices could be headed even higher across the food chain from bread to meat, given those higher costs to feed livestock and of course the fact that some much world's wheat comes out of ukraine and ruhr. >> thrussia the market is focused on ukraine as president biden will be meeting with g-7 leaders later this morning kayla joins us with the latest on the conflict. you know, kayla, we already know about one wave of sanctions that took place a couple of days ago. but what are the likelihood there is going to be more comi

morgan, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you. >>> we are 30 minutes into the trading session.e watching. starting with zillow, shares surging, the stock isdown more than 70% over the last year of trading, currently up right now about 7.5% don't miss the exclusive with rich bart on coming up on tech check. and astra, after the rocket builder latest mission failed to reach orbit, we will have a lot more on space, later this hour, but the shares are down another 13, almost 14% this morning. and we will end with expedia, topping earnings expectations as travel stocks continue to rally amid easing mask mandates. we will discuss with the ceo peter kern coming up in just a few short minutes. mike >>> reporting by cnbc, raising questions about whether markets may have gone too far in interpreting hawkish comments yesterday from st. louis fed president, the senior economics reporter steve liesman has all of that for us steve? >> mike, hats off to you, you were on this idea yesterday, in the afternoon, but reporting by cnbc, finding several federal reserve officials privately and public

the german ten-year jumped rick santelli, what do you make of it? >> yes, as a matter of fact, if you look at the original 9:00 central two-year chart, you can see the way it did pop on the larger than expected, 76.1 for the january ism as kelly just pointed out. and if you move further down the curve and looked at tens for the week starting on wednesday, you can see that even though it popped, it really has drifted a bit over the course of the last several sessions now bunds seem to be where some of the biggest selling action was as they post their second positive close in a row as you see on this two-day chart of bunds and if you go back to may of 2019, that was the last time we closed in positive territory. there's something else interesting. if you look at their two-year note, bund's two-year note at minus .48% so just a little bit away from half a percent that's the highest yield close in seven and a half years. we haven't seen a positive since august of 2014, but we will continue to monitor. right now, a two-year note is the only instrument on

>> thank you yields are low er now rick santelli at the cme. >> not only seeing them firming up muchaster in the long maturities start at the beginning i have a lot of charts we'll go fast. look at a russian 10-year around 13% and sure it's ill liquid let's see how the world looks at this event look at 10s here and you can see how we have off the cycle highs and the high close 2.04. bund yields pattern very similar. look at when's going on with the guild. 10-year in the uk a similar pattern. canadian 10-year got much less flight to safety buying but considering where they're located and regarding getting involved foreign exchange the dollar over that same period could have the highest close in the middle of summer of 2020 normally you see the euro and the pound do better. not this time. the pound vefr sus the dollar getting hit hardtoday. i think that the dollar reigns true as the best currency and the interest rates are similar in the patterns and last guest said he doesn't think it will last that long and the markets seem to agree and seem to be still putting more prominence on the

let's go out to rick santelli in chicago to take a look at what's been happening with yields on the ten-yearross the curve. >> yes, tyler, no matter where you look, and i'll go slowly as we go through the charts because i think every one is important in and of itself the two-year has a lot of cushion. it settled last week at 1.31 it was at 1.56 when the news broke, and we went down around 1.46 if my memory serves me correctly. we hover at around 1.50. when you get to the tens, we had threes, tens, and 30s auction. it settles on tuesday. this extra volatility is going to make difference in how traders deal with how they cover some of their positions or hedge them or pay for them out on tuesday. tens, they settle at 1.91 last week it's hovering at $1.95 and the 30-year bond, it's been a bit stodgy it settled last week at 2.31 we're getting close, and it's the one that could be the most nervous in the lastcouple hour of the cash market, and by far the winner, and dom always mentions both, the dollar and the japanese yen are flight to safety currencies, and the dollar is screaming. it's now over

let's turn to rick santelli for the view from the bond market. a strong two-year auction, rick. >> yes, i'm sure it had a lot to do with the geopolitical forces at work and if you look at a 24-hour chart of twos, we're down at 1.4% in the morning. it revisited that, by the way, and look at the 24-hour tens down to1.84% but yet all the y yields are about ten basis points higher than their extremes last night because we're way over our skis on the flight to safety in a thin market and the flattening of the yield curve, whether it's the fed meeting or march 16th rate increase or geopolitical, you can see on this chart we've traded under 40. looks like we're going to have a fresh new flat close going back to august of 2020 and when you look at a two week of the dollar index, it's been sideways at a good level we settle at 95.67 as you see on this long-term chart for the end of this year, so we're just a bit above unchanged. maybe the important fact is that it has been so steady. back to you. >> steady eddie. thank you very much. we also have the clos

i'm sure you can recall in 2009 when cnbc's rick santelli had this meltdown on the floor of the chicago mercantile exchange. >> this is america! how many of you people want to pay for your neighbor's mortgage that has an extra bathroom and can't pay their bills. raise your hand! president obama, are you listening?! we're thinking of having a chicago tea party in july. all you capitalists that want to show up to lake michigan, i'm going to start organizing. >> that comment sparked seemingly spontaneous protests across the country. but as jeff nesbitt points out in his book, "poisoned tea," the tea party's rise was orchestrated, well-funded, and deliberate, with the goal of breaking washington on behalf of the super rich. nesbitt detailed how the koch brothers teamed up with cigarette company phillip most, , knowing that know one would be the wiser or even care that these anti-tax groups would be jointly created and sfrundven f by the largest private oil company and the largest cigarette company in the world. it was perfect timing. stoking outrage over the affordable care act, which the d

standing by at the cme in chicago, rick santelli the numbers, please.ld be hitting right about now. >> they're going to be hitting the screen right about now we're going to have initial continuing claims and of course our january read on cpi. 223,000 on initial jobless claims, a bit lower than expected still, the 188,000 from early december as the post-covid low and not only that it goes back into the late 1960s. our continuing claims about as expected, 1,621,000. of course the best we've seen at the end of december at 1,555,000. so sequentially those a bit lower. here we go, cpi headline number up 0.6%. the high-water mark on that was up 0.9 several times, october being the most recent. if you strip out food and energy it was up 0.6 as well. both these hotter than expected. and on the core side up 0.9 of the high-water mark from april so these were supposed to moderate they did not moderate. now for the biggies, 7.5 on year over year headline, 6% on year over year core let's go to the white board. so 7.5%, and that is of course on headline. you have to

rick santelli's got that hey, rick. >> hi, carl. oh, my gosh.ack well over 40 years to find a higher inventory-building level this is incredible think about it we were up 1.3%. that was the highest last month since '82. the reason it's so important is because year-end inventory building really boosted gdp. this is a december number. this is going to add into gdp. last month they went up from 1.3 to 1.5 here's fly in the ointment are we going to be taking away with respect to q1 big question and an even bigger question, how long are prices affected what's going on in housing for that, we're going head to diana olick of the housing builders association >> it fell one point in february to 82. right in line with expectations. that is the second straight month of declines. anything above 50 is considered positive builders are blaming big supply chain issues production disruptions are so severe that many builders are waiting months to receive cabinets, garage doors, countertops, and appliances. these delivery delays are raising construct costs and pri

let's get to rick santelli >> yes january read on pending home sales big miss big miss on the month overnth negative change since february and the revision was a bit positive from minus 3.8 last look to only 2.3 i am sure rising interest rates may have impacted those that are signed but not closed and if we look at a nonseasonally adjusted year over year down 9.1. worst year over year since july of last year let's move to university of michigan sentiment 62.8 a big improvement over the mid month read of 61.7 that is a 10-year low of confidence inflation pretty much put the kibosh on confidence current conditions are 68.2. looking at future expectations, 59.4 both of these are -- current conditions about as expected the forward looking expectations much better than expected and follows 57.4 the inflation numbers. one year inflation 4.9%. moderated from 5 pi% which was mid month read and hottest since july of '08 to find a higher one. that's good news on the five to ten-year outlook mod reration there. moderated to 3%. those aren't big drops in terms of the longer term macro view on inflat

rick santelli here with live breaking news.uring index comes out at one we were expect ac number closer to ten one is the weakest number since september of last year unlike the market, pmi not stronger than expected for the big one, conference board, 110.5 this is a bit better than expectations and if we look at the present situation 145.1, that sequentially followed 146th.2. the 110.5 follows 113.8, finally our expectations index 87.5 follows 90.8, skweps official are lower, arguably lighter. heavier on the headline, certainly something to pay attention to as many are trying to differentiate one that feel good feeling may come back we are getting revisions to next month. none good. headline 113.8, downgraded to 111.1. the other two metrics, both are less than they were ultimately released, which means not only is this added proof, sequentially higher at 145.1 versus our new revision at 134.5. it doesn't change the notion these numbers, whether geopolitical or remnants of omicron are a bill new york stock exchangy back to you.

. >>> welcome back to squawk on the street rick santelli here live with breaking news.number around 62 big disappointment 56.3 56.3 the last time we had a number this slow, we have to go all the way back to august of 2020 and do remember it was may of 2020 that had a 38-year low at 32.1 the good news is, 56.3 is above the expansion contraction line at 50. we all know that many events, whether it's what is going on in russia, of course, or what is going on with the rem nanlts of covid omicron having the effect on psyche of investors ultimately, we're hoping it turns around we see markets in a bit of turmoil, and, of course, looking at big jobs report on wednesday and friday david faber, back to you. >> thank you, rick >>> fresh off ringing the opening bell, eric adams joining us here. the city is poised to end its school mask mandate and indoor vaccination requirements next week, as it continues to recover from the worst of the virus' health and economic impacts. nice to have you here. hope it's in the first of many visits let's talk about the mask mandate going away wil

♪ i'd go the whole wide world ♪ ♪ i'd go the whole wide world ♪ >>> welcome baback rick santelli herews of the week before the three day weekend existing home sales for the month of january is coming out with diana olick, but before that, leading economic indicators expected to be up 0.2% last look it was up 0.8%. and the number of course is late let's go to diana first. what do you see for existing home sales >> existing home sales jumped 6.7% month to month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 6.5 million units. that is a huge beat. the street was looking for 6.1 sales still down 2.3% year over year and december was revised down even as the supply of homes for sale fell to another record low. just 860,000 homes for sale, a 1.6 month supply balance market is considered four to six month supply so median price of a home sold to 353,000 that price is skewed, supply leanest on the lower end homes priced between $100,000 and $200,000 down 23%, but between $750,000 and a million rose 33% and million plus were up 39% from a year ago. these sales of course are based on contracts sign

melissa lee, back to you >> rick santelli, thanks steve liesman joins us now with more steve? number, and i'll tell you why. a bit lower than expectations, i'm hoping what it shows is that we're on the down side of some of the impacts of the omicron surge here actually, i think i lost my microphone there a little bit sooner than expected and hopefully the other data follows suit here. the productivity search tells us what that we're getting by with higher inflation and a worker shortage by getting more efficient. and rick is right, you need to think about the third quarter which was negative, this quarter which was positive and ask the question how much of the productivity gains we've seen in this economy where we're at gdp levels but millions fewer workers how much that holds onto the economy and that could be potentially long-term good news. maybe not good news for your meta investors today but long-term on technology and other issues that matter for the workplace and how we live, the idea we hold onto some of this incredible productivity. >> steve, thanks steve liesman. mik

rick santelli here live at cme hq with breaking news.or the weekending february 19th 219,000 initial claims that's down 16,000 and less than 235,000 expected on continuing claims, wow, a definite drop. 1,476,000. this is new post-covid low, and it is definitely well below expectation. now, gdp this is our second look at fourth quarter 7% was the expectations. 7% was what we got that's versus the original look at 6.9 and if we look at the consumption, personal consumption, it drifted a bit from 3.3 to 3.1, and that's 0.4 below expectations and if we look at the price index, it's a big jump 7.1% on the pricing index. 7.1% to find a higher number you have to go back to the fall of 1981 or the third quarter of '81. on the personal consumption expenditure core quarter over quarter it moves to 5% that's versus 5.9. the high-water mark was the second quarter are, and that took you back to 1983 the third quarter when it was 6.2. on the personal consumption, joe, we're definitely a little hotter than expected but well-off the pace unlike the pric

mean, phil maybe marriott is ahead of everybody else we're just seconds away from the ppi data rick santellinumber up a whopping 1%. it is up 1%. that is much bigger than we anticipated. and just to put a face on this the up 1% is the second highest month over month read, because of course if you look at the final read 1.2 from january of last year was the all-time high. up 0.8 when you strip out the all important food and energy, and that is 0.2 away from the all-time high, which was july and that was up 1.0. these are well hotter than expected, by the way we're expecting up 0.5%. and finally food, energy and fraid it is up 0.9%. so anybody's who's looking at the month over month and year over year are making comments the read rate of change is slowing down not accurate year over year up 9.7% 9.8 is the all-time high going back to recordkeeping which was changed, so it goes back to 2010 so 9.8 was november. this is 9.7. 8.3 on year over year. 8.3 equals the all-time high from last year this series goes back to november 2010. and finally over the year over year food, energy and trade it is u

rick santelli, take it abhach. >> we're expecting our january read on housing starts and permits and000 which still might get revised. but continuing claims still a different story. 1,993,000, that is a bit better than expected. on philly fed a february release. we're expecting 20, we end up with 16. 16 basically is the lightest number since december when we were around 15.5 a disappointment there on housing starts 1,638,000, easily adjusted analyzed units that is about 60,000 light to ex expectations and if we consider that interest rates, of course, make a huge difference in the housing sector, and i'm sure diana will speak to this and also give us the break down between single and multifamily, the issue with supply being so tight even moving interest rates might not bite as hard as it used to listen, gang, i do not see building permits out yet so i'll picket back to you and maybe diana has that >> we'll get to diana in just a moment we've also got instant reaction from our own steve liesman and diana. and what are you seeing? getting any of those numbers just yet >> yeah, and i do

rick santelli here live from the cme hq with breaking economic news headline number up much strongeros to be pretty powerful at 3.3%, still triple 1% expected, really is a surprise and if we consider ex autos and gas still holding up, equal to the headline up 3.8% noi the one fly in the pointment, this isn't adjusted for inflation. higher inflation in entire retail sales not necessarily more aggressive purchases or more purchases and if we look at the control group it's a whopping up 4.8%, which gets higher up the food chain kpk data now let's look at import and export prices. month over month up 2% that's almost double the expectations and if you look at january ex petroleum import prices you can see the import prices on the energy side boosted a bit because it dropped down 1.4. the year over year number 10.8 and like all year over year numbers these are powerful we see in the rearview mirror that there's building pressures, and that 10.8% while it's far from the highest level we were 11.7% at the end of last year. we look at export prices up 2.9% almost exactly double the expectati

bring in rick sante tell w -- santelli with results. >> difficult, 40 years' worth of inflation showing up before it occurs i gave it a d. d as in dog. didn't go well shocking right? 23 billion 30-year bonds what went wrong, yield is 2.34 well ahead where the issue market trading higher yield lower price is the bulk of the rating down grade. cover was basically on top of the ten auction average. metrics indirect not as strong as the last couple of ten-year and 30-year auctions but a little above average the dealers ended up taking less than ten auction average but priced ugly. look at the ten-year chart not only see how it's trading postauction, see the bullard posture steve talked about yes, right around 9:00 eastern touched 1.9999, official around 10:47 eastern. popped through it year-to-date chart. hover now at, what 203, call it that is up 52 basis points on the year and as you see on the july 2019 chart, last time closing over 2%. quickly i want to go back to the two year two year's making fresh two-year high yields as well but really popped when bullard's comments came out 156 up