. >>> the yields are moving higher rick santelli, what is playing here more on the market or the tripi? >> it's that and technicals. he a three-fer day the second of the day's trade took that level out, the entire curb sold off pushing yields up. as you look at an intraday of tens, what you need to notice is right around 11:30 eastern, can you definitely see the pelosi effect, as rates moved up. let's put a face on it yet ten-year note yields closed, so we have all the fed speaker trying to talk rates up. it was ripe for that they're good at pushing things down mountains reversing some of the flight to safety trade, and a lot of really rotten data, this morning it's hard to say jolts was rotten, but it's four months running that job openings are moving lower trust me, everyone's putting so much faith that no way can you say we're in a recession with job creation it just makes friday's numbers that much more monumentally important. if you look at three month to ten, the real recession spread, a wild day oh, my god, from 30-plus down to '08, bag up to 29. listen, if that thing inserts,

jon fortt, back to you >> rick santelli, thank you. >>> let's see what pojay powell said. >> it takes time to require using tools to bring demand and supply into balance. reducing inflation is likely to acquire sustained period of below trend growth there will be softening of labor market conditions. while higher interest rates slower growth and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses these are theunfortunate costs of reducing inflation. a failure to restore price stability would mean more pain. >> what does that pain feel like let's bring in gregory, the chief economist at ey parthenon. greg, why is the market reacting to what the fed has been trying to say for a while and what kind of pain are we talking about >> i think what we're seeing right now is there's a realization via this very crisp and clear discourse that jay powell shared that the fed is really has the unconditional commitment to bringing down inflation. that it will continue tightening monetary policy and bring poll policy to restrictive stan

the 30-year bond auction looks like it didn't go as well as yesterday's ten year let's bring in rick santelli with those results rick >> reporter: a very strange auction, kelly the grade i gave it was a "c" as in charlie the yield at the dutch auction 3.106. high yield prior to the results was 3.10 it tailed badly. some of the metrics were pretty good indirecteds and directs were slightly above average what caught my eye was dealers 10% of the auction if you dismiss the most recent auction where we had right around the same amount, 10%, the second best going back at least 20 years which means that second best the dealers took a little and investors a lot. their balance sheet isn't shrinking, investors seem ready to step up they weren't very aggressive today, kelly >> rick, thank you very much our rick santelli. remember that discussion we were having yesterday about the productivity crash both steve liesman saying they're hopeful it's a statistical quirk. we could even see a golden era for productivity ahead let's welcome in barry knapp at iron side's macroeconomics i don't want to say this i

rick santelli is tracking all of that from the cme, hi, rick. >> yes, you know, post the jackson holesymposiumd has been energized to more selling and higher rates. as you look at a three-day of two-year, we flirted above 3.43% friday, yesterday, and today, but today it looks like we may close above it, and why is that so important open the chart up to june 1st. this is why it's so important because we will be nearly at a 15-year high should we trade and close above 3.43%. that was the mid-june high, and if you open the chart all the way back to november 2007, you could see what i'm talking about. ten-year, not exactly the same see this june 1st of our u.s. ten-year, it's hovering right around 3 311, virtually unchangd on the session its june high was a couple of basis points shy of 3.5% we still have a long way to go when we think about the pound, we have to think that the uk has energy caps, which means it's one of the few economies we know is going to be experiencing even bigger inflation ahead, and to that end, let's look at what's going on with the pound versus the dollar this is from cov

rick santelli's got it >> better than expected, second highest read in the year other than january whenif we ex transportation out, it deteriorates to up 1.4 so of course transportation kicked in a positive fashion which means we have a midmonth read we toss it. so the midmonth read was up 1.9. it gets replaced with up 2%. up 2% is also the second best of the year outside of january when it was up 3.1% strip out transportation, it really drops to up 0.4%. a proxy for business spending up 0.7. that's a nice number considering it was up 0.5, so we replace that june final and it improved. and finally if we look at shipments, also up 0.7, and that equals our mid-month three for our money ball numbers in many ways institute for supply management services index, 56.7. 56.7, and that is, indeed, good news because in the rearview mirror 55.3 was the worst level going back to may of 2020, so a definitely improvement there interest rates, well, they're definitely higher on the session. we want to pay really close attention. below the market to two and three quarters percent >> three big movers we

macro dating under the belt with pmis with more rick santelli has got t.ray, rick. >> reporter: ism manufacturinghe vicinity of 52 comes in a bit better actually at 52.8. 52.8, but that's still on the light side because anything in this 53 or lower camp, you're looking at levels we haven't seen since the summer of 2020. it not sles a minor improvement, and if we look at the prices paid component it moved down dramatically from 78.5 down to 60. down to 60 this is a huge move. 78.5 down to 60. we haven't been down as low as 60 since, what, august of 2020 nearly two years the high water mark right in between there was 92.1 that was in june of '21. that was the highest level in 42 years, so it's very welcome to see that move lower. new orders still under 50 in contraction mode at 48 that's a miss. sequentially following 49.2 and on this very special week where we do get employment, the ism employment at 49.9 just a whisker away from the expansion separation line. definitely an improvement over expectations and sequentially higher than 47.3 and maybe some of the worst news i've seen in a while. housin

impact for equities short term, but i don't see those as -- >> david, if you could, let me go to rick santelli for a moment we just had the 20-year auction. he just gave it a d-minus. before i come to you for a final thought, rick, give me some detail. >> i tried to be generous, but it's just horrible 3.38% is the yield, 20-year bonds, 15, 1-15 billion of them. it was trading about 3 1/2 basis point lower than that, and 3.38 was the high one issued yield of the session. ultimately we had to have such a low yield -- excuse me -- low-price/high used to move this d-minus is the great, 2.30 bring to cover that in itself isn't very good it's the lowest since oak 21 the dealers took 14.7% no matter how you slice it, with you know that long maturities will continue to have buyers for the most part. look at what's going on in europe this particular auction, whether it's a recent separate of data, whether it's europe going to the wild side or the fed minutes coming up, i'm not sure which, if all of the above, there's definitely an investor avoidance of the 20-year bond. >> rick, we know it's the least

market where the ten-year yield is hitting session lows after james bullard's comments on the show rick santellition rick >> yes there are so many dynamics going on, seema? look at the intraday of seven year and it was the last of our auctions and boy, it was the best of breed. as you look at that, you can see at 1:00 how yields dropped yields dropped because of the buying every investor saw when the results of the auction came out. it sounds sort of -- well, incongruent with all of the information we've had over the last four days, but it is what it is and look at one week of tens and the buildup to jackson hole symposium making investors nervous and it all seemed to ease back a bit today and it didn't stop in the u.s. and the boons and europe and yields moved down why is that important? because they had been closing up seven sessions in a row. bunds and gilds and down five in bunds and ten basis points in gilds in the uk and finally, the dollar index he's exactly right it's eased back just a bit i don't want to make a big deal about this, but do remember the big hedge funds are super short wit

prospects were people listening to what happens in jackson hole and saying yes, i like that, think rick santelli said we will be happy. >> you have to navigate it properly, we are probably in agreement that there is absolutely zero chance, but they are dovish when jackson hole. you can't be at this point. elicit -- let's look at what happened, crew down, lumber down 65%, things have come down, housing coming down, but they have to navigate, going to the point about the dollar, they have to be strong, they have to be hawkish, because if they back off a little bit, the commodities run backup, they have an inverse correlation to the dollar. i think we will be surprised at the downside cpi in september, they have a margin for error but they have to walk the game and talk the talk and be hawkish and maybe back off the hawkish actions. >> do you think they have the ability to follow through on the medicine that we really need? i was talking about earlier today, we saw through the financial rices how easy it was, not with jay powell but also the pandemic, maybe it was warranted but they've never had to

thank you very much, bob bob pisani >>> yields jumping after falling to four-month lows and rick santelliago for us rick, did the bond market guess wrong on this jobs report and once again, as we end up the week i always love to ask you, what it we learn this week you know, i don't think the bond market responded in a fashion that could be considered wrong let's look at the two year at 3223, and if you look at tens, we're at 17 basis points on the week at 282 and think about that tens are up half as much as twos so on weak numbers we flatten or invert more and on strong numbers we invert more what is that telling us? what it's telling me is the market is still right and it's putting pressure on the short maturities because of the implications of the fed and the long end still sees the same thing and as a matter of fact, on the week to date chart, 285 was the high wednesday we only took it out by a smidge. look at the dollar index because the fed's getting more aggressive potentially, the dollar index popped nicely and there's the center of attraction and the january fed funds futures of 2

rick santelli has the results of the ten-year auction >> it went well. let's go through it. 35 billion ten-year notes, the second leg, three-year notes were yesterday, 2.755 is the auction yield, and it's a big below where the one issue was trading. all the metrics were pretty good b-plus, and i think the most stellar feature of today is the fact there was so much buying coming into this auction is testament that not only the markets, but, of course, who is behind the message of the markets are investors. investors have been more correct in my opinion than many of the analysts and the economists. they gone along with this move and they have gone along with the move with regard to interest rates being well below some of their peak closing yields from the 14th of june kelly, back to you. >> all right a b-plus, 275 on the ten-year. rick, thank you very much. >>> coming up, etfs focus on single stocks splashing into the market one name in particular getting a lot of attention we'll tell you what it is, and what it means for investors. >>> plus, can disney di

rick santelli is in chicago for us, rick >> yes, john, indeed and this is in front of the big job's numbernot forget. initial claims of 260,000. they're not as high as the recent 261,000 and we were definitely awfully close to the highest level going back to the november 12th era and why is that important because, of course, as initial claims move higher, it gives us a very real time read on employment and layoffs and we, think, know that tomorrow's number is more of a lagging indicator which means at some point this we see jobs roll over it will have an outsized effect on the market even though it might be a dated piece of data if you look at a week to date, you can clearly see tuesday is a big day and we have an intraday lowdown for a ten-year and everything reversed that day that was the tough fed talk day and it closed at 2.75 which means the first 257 yield settlement that was the low going back to april 5th and the three month versus tens shows you what a volatile week it's been and how the fed is not happy with the markets because that big move that weigh saw down to 251 and down to

burlington, 5 below and big lots the bond market where yields are falling to kick off the new month and rick santelli action at the cme opi rick >> if you look at outside the two and three year yields are falling and most associated with the fed looking at the two-day of two year. you can see we're higher in yield by 2.5, 3 basis points and what was the catalyst? construction spending was the weakest in about two and a half years. minus 1.1% and a real shock there and of course, prices paid though on the good news side dropped 18.5 points. that's historic in and of itself, and of course, that helped the longer treasury parts of the curve look at the two-day of ten-year and the ten-year down four basis points and 30-year bonds are off eight basis points and the curve is flattening and a stagflation and the flattest in 22 years and you see it, twos versus tens and hovering just around minus 30 basis points and that's not the real recession spread and many like to look at the real recession spread three months to ten-year and there's a ne-chee chart of it and look how it's dropping like a rock and it is

i don't know we'll ask rick santelli about the action today rick >> it all depends which part of theurve you're looking at if you look at a 24-hour of two year note yields, you'll see it's been a steady rise, almost a 45 degree line higher and what that has done is as you look at two-day of ten-year, which is reversed after it hit the same high yield around 286. curves are either inverting more or flattening because the short maturities have some strength, but not the long maturities. as a matter of fact, let's look at a chart going back to the 20th of july for ten-year note yields why? because that was the last day we had a 3% handle on a ten-year note close, which means this is the 19th session, we've gone 18 sessions without closing at 3% or higher. the high yield is right around 3.5%, and many believe we've already hit peak interest rates on long maturities and if that's true, that means we're most likely going to see more slowing because that's the way the market is trading. finally, on the foreign exchange sigh, we all know the dollar's had a resurgence it's been strong mostly

rick santelli tracking the action. >> yeah.e seems to be a lot more clarity when it comes to the fear in the interest rate market everyone thinks the symposium will be very, very hawkish and maybe they'll be correct yields definitely are rising and i don't see any way the fed is present will the hawkish phase and today it got ever closer 15 years at 14.43% as we hovered under 3.4% if you look at what's going on overseas and the same scenario the 10-year in the uk and the ten-year in europe bunds and gilds close at the seventh consecutive higher yield day in a row and as you look at the two-year instrument hovering at 2.94%, that is a 14-year high close. let's look at our ten year, our close at mid-june, the high was 3.5% a whisker below and you see how low the curve has moved and if you look at the uk guilt you see the 6-1, they took it out. they closed on the last chart. we had the second auction, a role that was below average, but who will step out on a light volume august session in front of the fed symposium the answer very

our rick santelli.urn to the energy market which is a big part of the story and the culprit may be for the inflationary pressures and growth problems europe is dealing with pippa stephens is here pippa? >> hi, kelly oil is jumping more than 2% with wto we claiming the bullish inventory report the market remains in a multi-year tightening cycle and catalysts and recession fears are established and this in chinese demand remain unknown. hiel oil can the end of it yore, due to tight supply. let's a gain of 6.2% and 41 and this is lifting the energy sector which is the top s&p group and upstream players apa, marathon oil and devon are leading those gains. finally, another volatile session for natural gas. u.s. prices were up more than 4% at one point, but now ending here in the red. over in europe on track for another record close with it up 7% >> thank you very much, pippa stephens the commodities has soared this year and they've seen incredible moves and let's look at the year to date changes and eqt has

first, though, let's get to the bond market where rick santelli is watching yields ahead of that cpi report in the morning, rick. >> yes, that cpi report is going to be important. you know, this morning we saw some major improvement in non-farm productivity, but that still brought us to a minus 4.6 for the second quarter preliminary, improvement but still really nasty productivity. we know that negative gdp back to back and rising job levels, solid job creation could only mean one thing productivity is not good, and most likely i don't see any improvement on the horizon for tomorrow, it's going to be a big day for the july consumer price index, and there's two areas that i think investors should pay close attention to. if you recall last month the headline number was up 1.3 1.3 was a 42-year high back to 1980 tomorrow expectations are for 2 to three tenths. the year-over-year headline it was up 9.1 that was the highest in 41 years back to 1981 expected to be up 8.7. there could be surprises how did the market react those data points for june were released on the 13th of july here's a

powell's speech and a key inflation index that did show pricing frpressures ar easing in july and rick santellig all of the akction. >> it's been's day for global sovereigns in general. if we look at january of next year and keep it simple, what we see now is that a price of 9634.5 and it's getting very close to its june 14th low contract close at 9631 only three and a half ticks away remember, the lower we go in fed funds futures the more tightening is building in so some of the good will seems to be dissipating although it's in shorter maturities and look at two-year note yields and it's up two on the day, up 16 basis points on the week and very much in tune with the hawkishness of our fed chairman however, as you go through the longer maturities and the equities market and the notion of possibly slowing. only up a half dozen basis points on the week and finally, when we think about the dollar's strength we should think about the weakness driving it. it was below parity since 2002 and since that happened on monday every single day has closed below parity. seema, back to you >> the dollar surg

. >> thank you very much rick santelli.urn to oil now which has been selling off sharply pippa stephens has it for us >> oil is in the green on the back of a better than expected inventory report and stockpiles fell by 7.1 million barrels last week which was much larger than analysts expected. gasoline inventory dropped by 4.6 million barrels and much of the recent weakness is thanks to concerns that demand is slowing. did i also want to mention that u.s. oil exports at a record 5 million barrels per day. let's check on prices, wti up 2% and brent crude up at 93.69 and natural gas is closing at the highest level since 2008 in yesterday's session. otc global holdings faulkner said prices aren't going remain elevated even as temperatures cool because gas is being diverted from storage and going to l, ng cargos from europe and asia pippa, i don't know if there's any protocol for dictating whether that should be going into storage or being exported or whether that's the kind of thing that could still be coming down the pike som

rick santelli, thank you, sir.appreciate it let's turn to oil in what's been a volatile session and prices were down earlier and you can see them in the red when you have inventories unexpectedly rise this week and we reversed course and we're closing up 1% and we spoke to carter worth about this last hour and those who had been bearish on energy moving back from those positions, as for me and the consumer, we all wonder does this imply higher gasoline prices, meantime, lower rates, higher housing stocks, they're getting a big lift along with the rest of the market they've been battered this year and our next guest says we could be at an inflection point and let's bring in john lavallo, equity research analyst at ubs good to see you. what do you think is happening here >> hi, kelly thanks for having me i think what's happening is we've reached a bottom and the stocks are starting to react in the early cycle. i think there were interesting points that came out of a recent survey that we did with the google search mo

. >>> from health to bonds, let's see if they're healthy, two year notes, rick santelli tracking the action. >> not a pretty auction. the grade i gave the 2-year, d d-minus. $44 billion to kick off 126 billion in supplies. the yield at the dutch auction 3.0% 3.29%. higher yield, lower price. if you're the seller like the u.s. government lower price is never good and most of the grade here was because of price so messy. if you look at the internals 2.49 bid to cover the lightest bid to cover since march of this year the other thing that jumped out, 17.3 on direct bidders that's the lightest since june yes, the numbers aren't so far away from the 10 auction average but all metrics are away from 10 auction average. tomorrow's five year may go better jackson hole looming large good luck to try to move the supply with any type of rigor whatsoever back to you. >> d-minus you call that a charlie brown auction. that's not a good grade. rick, thank you. >>> the chips sector in focus. nvidia reports earnings after the bell tomorrow. the stock has been under pressure with a recent cut to its ou

the s&p up a little over 8 points let's show you the ten-year note as we speak before we get to rick santelli the ten-year at 2.842. rick, i know we have about 20 seconds before we hit the number i'm curious before we hit it, you read the minutes yesterday do you think the market and the fed are in the same place? or no. >> to me, i would say the answer is no, but i would always go in fav favor of the market. eventually, the market will pull the fed in its trdirection. i do thit marnk the market is expressing its opinion initial jobless claims dropped to 250,000, that's 14,000 less than we were expecting and it's a dozen below the 262,000 that's in the rear view mirror and yet to be revised and do consider, 262,000 last week was the highest level since the second week of november 2021 now if we look at continuing claims, also less than expected, but sequentially higher. 1,437,000. last month was the highest level going back to the first week of april. so obvious i ly, this is no exception. historically speaking, these are still pretty good numbers. if we look at philly fed, expected down five

etfs and rick santelli's midday word and the calls of the day. we're back right after this.n any business, you ride the line between numbers and people. what's right for the business and what's best for everyone who depends on it. solving today's challenges while creating future opportunities. it takes balance. cla - cpas, consultants, and wealth advisors. we'll get you there. - hiring is step one when it comes to our growth. we can't open a new shop or a new location without the right people in place. i couldn't keep up until i found ziprecruiter. ziprecruiter helps us get out there quickly and get us qualified candidates quickly. they sent us applicants that matched what i was looking for. i've hired for every role, entry-level technicians, service advisors, store managers. ziprecruiter helps me find all the right people, even the most difficult jobs to fill. - [announcer] ziprecruiter, rated the number one hiring site. try it for free at ziprecruiter.com >>> and welcome to the etf edge portion of "halftime report. i'm bob pins a big july with big gains in the s&p 500. etf

rick santelli here live at cme hq with breaking news. our july read on retail sales.goose egg. unchanged from last month, which up to this point remains unrevised and was strong at 1% happens to be the strongest since january when it was up 2.7. so we are definitely seeing a little bit of a slow down, at least on average with the pace we had last month. revision, .8 if you strip out autos, the number moves to .4 now the control of the core number for retail sales, higher up the economic food chain, up .8, that's a strong number, we expecting the number up around .6. this series has been running pretty strong, despite the weakness in headline on this particular month, maybe the big news is how much yields are up we're up about 11 basis points in a two-year, yes, i heard you. why? look towards europe. look towards the uk. you want to know what the u.s. is going to be like with our ongoing policy of energy look towards europe. think have double digit inflation. first time in 40 years, and their curve inverted for the z first time since '08 and the two-year shots in europ

and the labor costs, the increase in earnings, is the cost of labor. >> thank you, rick santelli. >>>t biden is set to sign the chips act into law today, a big win for the semi-conduct are industry, directing tens of billions toward manufacturers and toward research joining us is brian deese. it's good to see you on this side of the camera for once. thanks for joining us. >> happy to be here. >> first i want to ask you about this bill that will be signed today. it will green light tax credits, matching what other countries have done. what do you expect singapore and taiwan to do in response are they going to try to win some of this activity back >> this is the united states getting into the game in a very significant way. this is the first time in decades decades we've made this kind of investment it's roughly equal to the investment to put the man on the moon and we believe this will have a similar impact across decades in terms of unleashing innovation and strengthening our manufacturing base here in the united states. we know what we need to do we need to build more semi-conductor

and our very own steve liesman and rick santelli. the one that matters, which is the core price. it's supposed to go up, and what's driving that is services and housing. housing eventually, services still has price increases to process from wage gains. >> jason, i think you called it inertiale inflation and maybe it's poised to go i hhigher my worry is that the parts that are hard to get rid of are the ones that have been rising >> you are seeing futures creep a little higher. i'm wondering how you are positioned for this and what you anticipate >> we've seen over the last couple readings that they can go very much against what market's expecting. going mo going into this, we have a lot of momentum. doesn't mean i'm mutual for the next six or seven months for now, i think it's mutual >> what is good news in your view is this a no news is good news, bad news is bad news >> no, i think good news is good news we look at the year over year, but the fed looks at the month over month number. that would be .2 on the headline and .5 on the c

rick santelli here with the last breaking news of this session in the form of our june final read onwn one tenth to 1.8 do remember inventories have been really surging. it was just in february, the biggest month-over-month change since report keeping on the sales side, the june number is up 1.8 that's triple expectations it really is a good thing to do. lately inventory has running a bit ahead of sales this matching it up. so up 1.8 on both a subtle revision from up 0.5% to up 0.7. interest rates falling dramatically, falling faster in the short maturity, hence steepening the curve, what's known as a bull steepening there's a lot of green in equities david, back to you >> rick, thank you >>> good wednesday morning to everybody. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm david faber with sara eisen. we are live from post 9. carl has the morning off morgan is on maternity leave we have a strong rally in part in response to the cpi number we got about an hour and a half ago? >> and with it lower expectations for september we're 30 minutes into the trading session. here are t

rick santelli here with breaking news s&p global pmis, august preliminary.h respect to manufacturing, 51.3, a little less than anticipated and sequentially lower than 52.2. it's actually the lowest read since july of 2020 if we look at the services pmi, 44.1 much less than the 49 and change we're looking for. sequentially lower than 47.3 and that is the lowest level since may of 2020. and finally, to round out the trio, our composite pmi, 45.0. less than 47.7 in the rearview mirror and 45.0, the lightest read since may of 2020 none of these are very good. and going into jackson hole, manufacturing has had a couple of good numbers, but all in all, services and manufacturing disappointing a bit, especially on a global scale. quk t street" will return after a short break it's an entire trading experience. with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change h

rick santelli here live at hq with shortly breaking news on chicago pmi. just to refresh viewers' memories, our last look at 52.1 for july, was the lowest in almost two years going back to august 2020, and it's hitting the wires at 52.2, very close to expectations and, will, very close to our last read as well if 50 is the expansion/contraction line, we're barely above it. the last time we were below 50 was july of 2020 so it's been a while not a solid number interest rates are up across the curve. they've really been up since friday when our fed chairman of course talked about the need for tough inflation fighting, and that continues to have an effect on the markets, though the green arrows in stocks today may give us a different direction ultimately on rates. "sawonhetrt"ilquk t see wl return after a short break fromy keep you tuned in all day long. so when something happens that could affect your portfolio, you can act quickly. that's decision tech, only from fidelity. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i n

rick santelli with more breaking news we are expecting our july read on industrial production and capacity ultslization. expecting a number up 0.3 on production and do remember, on utilization rates, april, we were up at 8.42. that was the best in 14 years and it's hitting the wires up 0.6% on industrial production twice what we were expecting, up 0.6 is the best number since april when it was up 0.77. on utilization rates about as expected, 80.3 80.3 that's sequentially following 80.0 until it's revised. anything above 80 is pretty good that makes it four in a row above 80% and that is something good at this point, especially on the goods side. we know services are starting to ramp up, but it is something to pay -- revision. i spoke too soon 79.9 0.1 below 80 quk t as our june read. "sawonhe street" will return after a short break. when hurting feet make you want to stop, it's dr. scholl's time. our custom fit orthotics use foot mapping technology to give you personalized support, for all-day pain relief. find your relief in store or online. your shipping manager left to “find themself.”

we're ckn mont ba ia me >>> rick santelli live at c cme hq affectially known as jolts, expecting a numberion it's a miss. 10,698,000 it's the lightest of the year, this is the lightest going back to september in the rear-view mirror there is a revision last month 11,254,000, it's a subtle revision higher and for the record, march is the all-time high going back to recordkeeping, 11,855,000. keep an eye on that three-month to ten-year spread, it's been moving, of course, flight to safety and pelosi is what everybody seems to be watching carl, back to you. >>> good tuesday morning, welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with leslie picker, david faber has the morning off, and morgan brennan is on maternity level. in the meantime we're watching a lot of macro, and the speaker's trip to taiwan >> here are three big movers, starting with oil giant bp, raising the dividend payout. getting a boost from high commodity prices we have seen this story over the last few weeks on news that activist investor elliott management is now the company as largest shareholder. s

the inflation problem, it would go higher still >> all right i want to bring in the whole gang rick santelliand bob pisani are joining us give me your take, rick. >> definitely the two-year was around 3.36 when this all occurred, now it's around 3 had the 41 it'sic as high as 3.44-plus. if i had to summarize, it spiked up, but it's coming back down, and 3.43 is the he yield close for mid june, and we can argue the terminal rate is around 3.75, and len ate go to the ten-year, that would in a range around 3.4%. the current high closed just shy of 3.5 for mid june. 3.03 is where we were before the volatility and the speech. it's exactly where it started. maybe the most interesting aspect is the dollar index moved lower, now it's moving higher. the dollar is the thought of euro recession, so it's a muddy indicator. maybe the best indicator of all, january fed fund futures have had some volatility. in the end, i'm going to keep it simple, folks, it's up on the day one tick up means less fed. obviously only a little less fed, but after going through this entire ordeal to see that contract still up

rick santelli here live at cmehq with breaking news, the july preliminary reed is going to change unchangedl read was up 2% if we strip out transportation, we can see that transportation was a drag on the number, because it increases to up .3, better than the .2 we were expecting and up .3 follows seque sequentialry up .4 business capital spending also up .4. that's a solid number. and in the rear view mirror, nice revision. and finally, if we look at shipments versus orders, they were up .7, a very strong number as well with an increase in last month from up .7 to up .8. so if you average it out, it isn't so bad but we would rather see that momentum to the yum upside we know jackson hole's coming up gilt yields very close to eight-year highs, and of course we're all discussing what's going on with how the market will continue to proceed ultimately, monday's trade should be key, and many believe it's going to be a little less intense on the interest rate side than the leadup to jackson hole andrew, back to you. >> the numbers and the analysis, we have breaking news right now on peloton cnbc

rick santelli here with breaking news our july raiead on housing star, 1,446,000 seasonally-adjustedt month better than expected but less a man sequentially we go back to june, this goes back a ways. i know we're going see diana olic in a few seconds. single family versus multi-family how many homes are under construction, due to labor or shortages aren't completed, the higher cost, whether it's interest rates or monitoring if prices are reflected all of this makes it very difficult. when you add in, the market's starting to ease financial conditions a bit against the will of the fed, it's going to be handicapping housing that much more difficult. brian, back to you >> rick, thank you very much and rick referenced diana olic let's get into it and to these numbers with diana we're going to go to you first your take on the data. >> it's a disappointment on the starts, below expectations, and we we were expecting a drop we're seeing weakness in single family and multi-family. but you saw single family starts month to month drop 10%, but you also see them down over 18%. sorry, glasses, y

bring in our panel we have a chief economist from robinson stevens and our own steve liesman and rick santelliou are? or rick, where are you >> 200,000 >> i could be a little bit stronger >> a little stronger, steve. >> sarah >> i'm at 200,000, and also a little high on average hourly earnings at .4% >> only one left, janette. >> i'm sticking with the consensus, because who knows 258. >> sarah, we, you do the back-to-back quarters for the invr word >> i think it's technical but not a textbook recession what we need to get to is a real drop in unemployment >> that was my fault and janette, five seconds? yes or no. >> not until employment caves. nope not yet. >> okay. ahead of these numbers, we've got about 80 points on the dow we're up nine or so on the nasdaq the s&p up five and change oil's under 90, and the ten-year is right around 2.7% let's get to the number. rick >> yes, and here we are. waiting for the big july jobs numbers, and it is a whopper 528,000. basically doubled expectations and 528,000's the best number since february when we were over 700,000. revisions to the last two months

can you see right now, 3.11, moving up a little we do have rick santelli standing by at the cme in chicagoliesman is at the fed symposium in jackson hole, wyoming. rick, are you excited? steve's already out there, you're going to have to watch from afar. you guys want to talk at all >> well, i'm excited i think that coming off of basically half century best levels with regard to employment at a time where we're at four decade highs on inflation, presents a very interesting series of events, i think, for them to all deal with, and i'm sure steve is going to try to dig to the bottom. i think my biggest issue continues to be the idea that the fed cannot possibly ease up on the rhetoric despite what they may believe behind closed doors. i'm not saying the fed has to pivot in 2023, as a matter of fact, the recent steepening of the yield curve is what i would talk most about if i was steve to the fed officials because maybe, and i'm not saying it does yet, it could be reversing flattening, but maybe it means that we're starting to price in better growth versus recession, with long end rates what

rick santelli here with lots of important breaking news. welcome back to "squawk box.r are rolling in advanced trade balance which of course is the deficit, minus 89.1 billion, that's a much better number than we were looking for. we are looking for a number closer to 98 billion the all-time biggest deficit was in march at minus 125 billion. retail's up 1.1. pretty much spot on with the expectations personal income, one third of expectations the instead of up .6, we're only up .2. and that, indeed, is a disappointment if we look at the spending side, it was supposed to be up haslf o 1% real spending adjusted for inflation up .2. and if we look at the deflator, and we're getting into all the big numbers now. personal consumption, pen expenditure. it's actually down .1 of 1%. if you look at the year-over-year number, expected to be up 6.4 it is up 6.3 that follows 6.8 and 6.8 was the highest level going back to 1981 that was year-over-year. if we look month over month that is correct was up .1 and the personal consumption, pen to expenditure, up 4.6% we were expecting it

rick santelli here at cme with breaking news, trade balance for the month of june breeches the 80 billions smaller than expected even though it's still quite huge it's the first time we're under 80 billion on the trade deficit since the end of last year when it was 78.8. that's good news indeed and last month revised a bit from 85.5 billion initial jobless claims, 260,000, spot on with expectations. at least for the moment. it's up 4,000. how does 260,000 compare well, mid july we had 26, that is very important to monitor. and on continuing claim, it leaped higher. 1,419,000. we have not been under 1.4 million since mid april. this is now the highest level going back to the first week in april, 1.47 million. these aren't horribly high numbers based on history, but at this particular moment in history, when tomorrow's big jobs report and literally, if you look at what the feds say regarding the market's wrong, every jobs number is super important, because it really could underscore that many may be underestimating how quickly the economy's slowing versus those who think that the numbers ar