he was channeling kjim cramer o rick santelli in his -- basically, an attack on the fed. >> the this idea that the fed is not paying attention to what's going on in the economy. you know it's out there. the trouble for the fed is it has its credibility on the line. i have a lot of sympathy for what jeremy said we have barry stern llick on. the trouble is, it's got to show up in the numbers and it's got to show up in the consumer prize index. i don't think the fed. i can take into account what it's hearing from ceos, but it's got to be driven by the data and unfortunately, it's a bit of maybe an unvoidable accident in the sense that the data will be late we'll see -- you remember, tyler, i offered chair powell the opportunity to say that it's possible that they would pause, and he said, yeah, maybe, but now is not the time. they still have a lot of work to do i think, tyler bhmaybe, at a 4% range, they might be able to pause and look around before heading to 4.6, but if they do not get help or show slack, i think they might be headed to that 4.6 range >> thank you very much, steve lie

rick santelli is at the cme with more am i overstating this, rick? >> you're not overstating it, because the markets are shadow boxing what the fed is doing and the fed is being historically aggressive and the reason they're being historically aggressive, just listen to the fedex. listen, i don't claim to be able to figure out the future we know that forecasting isn't the fed's forte, either. but at the end of the day, it's pretty hard to ignore the signals and the big signal this weekend to state, it was on tuesday, cpi, year over year up 8.3, year over year up 6.3 let's go to the charts look at one week of twos notice the big spike up. that signaled the top and all of a sudden you see two-year just going up every day, today will be the seventh session in a row of higher yields but as you go to the 30 year, 30-year bonds are up 6 and if you look at that chart, what we saw tuesday happening in 30s and 10s, but it defined the range. it didn't start the liftoff. the fed is having a huge affect on short maturities. yesterday, the seven-year close above

let bring in the panel, bob pisani from the new york stock exchange, rick santelli also joining us, and, rick, let's start with you, and the movers seeing in the bond market and stocks which are reversing early gains. the s&p 500 now trading in negative territory, a 75-basis point rate hike. >> yes, you know i'm watching all the different maturities on the yield curve. one thing i can tell you is right before the fed announcement rates were virtually unchanged. we're now up 13, 14 basis points on the session on a two-year the high yield on a two-year now, 4.11. 4.11, like when we used to call information, and on the ten-year, the high yield thus far on this move, 3.62%. fed fund futures, there's so many contracts i'm looking at the january it dropped like a rock down towards 9566 when its prices go down the fed presence goes up but it's bouncing a little bit and you're seeing yields very volatile, and i described the way they move, but they are easing back just a bit. of course, waiting for q&a ultimately another dynamic was prevalent right before the announcement 30-year and ten-year y

the bond market, the yield on the two year, hitting 3.9% rick santelli has more on those moves in theond market rick >> yes, tyler. we've seen an aggressive week, essentially those short maturities they're up on the week over 30 basis points in the intermediate part of the curve, we see that the prices have moved. twos, fives, sevens are all in the green. even though it's been a big week, that's important now if you look at a june 1st of tens, i've been on this in a big way, we still have not closed above that mid-june 3.48% high yield close. we've had the last two days intraday trade above it which underscores there's a lot of investors looking at the global condition economically and deciding that they like buying some of these long-dated treasuries let's think foreign exchange if you think there's a global recession coming, the currency markets agree with you let's look at a 22-year chart of the index. it's not on the high, but look at how strong it's been. let's look at the pound versus the dollar which on its lows, lowest since '85 here's a 38-year chart of the pound versus the d

rick santelli joining us now and these yields -- first off, rick, i want to get your take on that are we the uk in any way, number one. and two, talk to us about why high yields matter don't they directly eat gdp because of the higher interest costs of funding the u.s. government >> latter question first, yes. yes. it's eating into the budget, as, of course, we all know, or maybe not everybody knows, that if you look at the baseline spending pre-covid, we're way above that. way above that and yes, debt is not good. issuing lots of debt and spending it at a time where fiscal issues, the sad part is, we're just waking up to this this has been a problem since '07, '08, '09. i remember central banks having the biggest brooms on the planet, and i think that the central bank in this country should have paid a whole lot more attention to potential global feedback loops, even though they say they're data dependent, they know where they want to go and where they want to go changes every day. that's what i find really fascinating. we all look at fed fund futures and say, here's the terminal rat

back to you. >> wow, rick santelli, thank you for that oil closing for the day, crude prices just below 80 bucks a barrel pippa stevens at the commodities desk tell us about the close. >> oil is falling today in a move that symbolizes how it's performed all quarter. wti dropped more than 24% over the last three months. that's the first negative quarter since q1 2020 when the pandemic began to sap demand for crude. the weakness over the last three months has dpredominantly been driven by demand side concerns, lockdowns in china and global slowdown has weighed on prices let's check on prices. with ti at $79.59 for a loss of 2%. brent is down 0.70%. one area that stood out is refining stocks. marathon petroleum, valero, phillips 66 all higher refinery outages in ohio and california are supporting those shares and finally, not something we talk about that often but orange juice futures on track for a sixth straight positive quarter. prices currently hovering around the highest since january 2017 after hurricane ian hit florida. the state is the largest orange producer in the u.s. >> thank y

back to rick santelli. 30-year bonds are up for auction. let's get the grade from rick. rick >> yes, brian, the demand was very strong, unlike yesterday's super week ten-year, this one gets an "a" for apple. the yield, it was 3.511, that was 18b 30-year bonds. and as you look at that chart, it was such aggressive buying, yields are falling to the tune of 3.49% we settled yet at 3.51 so right now 30-years and 20-years are down in yield and up in price in the session when you consider cpi, that's a big event and it speaks to the topic, what we're discussing, the yield curve. back to you. >> rick, thank you very much >>> well, if today is any indication, investors seem to think that higher inflation and higher rates will put a big dent in the markets it's happening today but is that really the case? or is this one of these one-day kn knee-jerk overreactions. let's bring in the head of the firm's global investment committee. we were in a four-day win streak coming into yesterday. suddenly the dow is down 900 points all on this cpi number, which really wasn't far off of what

as the company continues to struggle with supply chain issues let's turn now to rick santelli on thisthe fed meets. rick, clear indication from the bond market on what they expect or it expects from the fed tell us about it >> yes no, as a matter of fact, i was somewhat shocked today, tyler. looking at an intraday of 20-year bond yields. right around 1:00 eastern when the auction for 12 billion of those buttoned up, you can see what happened to rates they fell. yes, there was a lot of buyers that showed up and it surprised me a bit considering tomorrow looks to be the third 3/4 of a rate increase in a row and if you look at 20-year bond yields, they're going to be closing at a fresh 11 1/2-year high as a matter of fact, all long maturities, which weren't keeping up with short maturities like two and three-year, which have most closely followed the fed's tightening cycle, but that's all changed if you look at 30-year bonds, they're on pace for the highest yield close since 2014, call it 8 1/2 years. and if you look at the ten-year today, yesterday we closed above that very significant

let's get to rick santelli tracking the reaction in the bond market to the cpi report. hi, rick. >> you know, what isn't going on pretty much. looking at an intraday of 2-year that sums it up. all maturities looked similar. we are on pace to close at the highest yield close since 2007 in a 2-year. 2s, 3s, 5s, 0s, 30s all at new contract high yields only two that aren't at this point are 10-year and 7-year we need to pay close attention to both at the moment, especially 10-year anything under 3.48% isn't going to get us there. why is that so important because that will release a lot of pent-up selling according to the technicians. look at intraday 30. we had an auction today. 30-years went quite well but that's because investors had the luxury to see the cpi data fed fund futures this is a january contract it started on january 31, 2020 you are not going to find a lower price. get this from january, from september to january of '24 every month the fed fund future contracts all 14 making new contraction lows and that means the highest amount of fed tightening built into th

economic data, rick santelli has that rick. >> yes, and some very interesting numbers for september.inary read on university of michigan sentiment which means in a couple of weeks we get a final read these will get tossed and expecting a number on headline around 60. 59.5 so even though it's less than expectations, it's still better than our final read at 58.2 and the best read since april. if it becomes the final read, and in between then and now had 50 read in june, the historic low so a nice bounce 58.9 on current condition, 58.9 on expectations, that exceeds what we're looking for and follows 58.0 the reason i jumped in on expectations, it's the only one of the trio that didn't make historic lows. it only made 42-year lows in july at 47.3 now, the inflation numbers, one-year inflation 4.6 equals expectations follows 4.8, high water mark in march, 41-year high that was 5.4 so definitely coming down a bit and 2.8 on the five to ten-year outlook, less than expectations, less than our last look at 2.9 by 110 and 0.3 lower than 3.1 high water mark which we've had several times most re

morgan, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you. >>> we are 30 minutes into the trading session.hing this morning. shares ofcarnival getting crushed, reporting results and reporting a large loss despite reaching 90% occupancy on august sailings as the company says it's continuing to close the gap to 2019. those shares down 16%. amlex pharmaceutical on the move the fda approved als drug, first to gain approval in five years it has turned negative shares of nike getting hammered after reporting 44% increase in inventories for latest quarter, saying it would offer more discounts heading into the local day season nike did report better than expected profit and revenue for its latest quarter here's the company's ceo john donahoe addressing the issue on the call >> we're going to work through the excess inventory to get to a full marketplace as fast as we can and try to do it in an intelligent way that takes share. as my predecessor used to say, throw a few elbow as long the way. we're coming off a strong quarter and we feel good about our competitor position and we do not see any sign

now to the bond market which is digesting the beige book and hawkish comments and rick santelli joins the windy city hi, rick >> hawkish comments, i think that would be news only if it was dovish comments especially since august 26th and that's where we'll start all of our charts let's look at august 26th two-year note yield and we can see it was raround the mid-230s and not so far from where it is today. the chart is mostly sideways and think about what the beige book said weaker growth, elevated, but lower pricing pressures. that seems to be what the markets are thinking especially since chairman powell's speech look at the ten-year and that's where all of the horsepower was from 3% it shot up close to 3.5 and eased back and remember, yesterday's close was the first close of the two-year about 3.5% in nearly 15 years and the market seemed to be taking a bit of a breather and look at all that green in the equity markets and the inflation rate and it's near a two-month low level in the mid-260s and since that jackson hole speech tens to twos have been less inverted significantly and f

for more on what this signal, rick santelli is with jerome snyder who manages one of the largest actively managed etfs. hi, rick >> thank you, contessa yes, i'd like to welcome jerome. contestant a said something that i want to throw back at you. volatility in the marketplace, and you can hear the noise in the background, is ramped up a bit. but i certainly think that the trern treasury market i think it is the same market but something has changed. >> fundamentally what we're seeing is higher cost of capital in the marketplace transitory mechanisms which really help to allocate risks throughout the market have fundamentally gone to a higher cost of capital meaning that offers are wider, functional markets are wider so we're witnessing a recalibration from the low rate regimes into a more normalized one from the early 1980s or '90s. >> it is the great reset and it doesn't mean that the market is broken, it doesn't mean that the market is flawed it just means under the current conditions, big ranges are necessary. >> and investors have to adapt to it, so they will think about it in terms o

and rick santelli is tracking the action hi, rick >> yesterday's two-year 44 billion fives. neither of the auctions have gone very well and the consumer confidence data was definitely a bit better than expected but over the last two weeks let's keep the following charts all at two weeks, we've seen some huge yield gains but yet investors aren't showing up. look at a five-year over two weeks. we basically increased yields from 3.60 to 4.20, around 60 basis points, hovering at a 15-year high yield and the auction was a d. it was not very good and if we look at what's going on with the 10-year, a very similar structure, up 60 basis points in the last couple weeks from 3.40 up to nearly 4% today. 15-year high and if we look all around the globe we see sovereign debt doing the same thing because central banks are all pretty much trying to remove stimulus, raise interest rates bund yields hovering at just over 2 1/4 they're up 55 basis points in the last two weeks gilts up about 115 basis points this week. almost 1 1/4%. 14-year high and finally who's the beneficiary of all this?

now, let's go to the bond market and rick santelli tracking the move higher in the yields. rick >> hi, contessa. it's been a wild few sessions in the treasuries and indeed, all sovereign and corporate rates across the globe as you consider 213,000 today for initial jobless claims that was the lowest level in 15 weeks, since the end of may. there was some good news, and retail sales was a mixed blessing, and ultimately, we're on pace for the sixth highest yield close in a row for two-year note yields let's look at the last three since cpi and you can see how w continue to escalate after the big run-up we had when cpi was released but it's much different the further down the curve you go. if you look at a three-day of ten-year note yields what jumps out is the high water mark there yesterday, intraday, was 3.48%, but it closes lower. because 3.48%, if you open the chart up to june, you would find it was the mid-june high i will show that every day until we close above it, which will be a big technical green light for more selling bund yields, same scenarios. their mid-june hig

some wild moves here let's get to rick santelli for more on the moves and what is happening here and what is happening overseas because it kind of feels like the bond market in 24 hours got flipped on its head, rick. >> oh, it did because when i was on the train coming in, the big question, people were e-mailing me and texting me on, was how much the yields had risen. when was the last time you saw yields this high the big story they're down 21 basis points in tens and everybody going when was the last time we were down 21 basis points in one day. the high yields it's unbelievable so let's go through it here's the two day of 10s sully was talking about. by the way, it's an outside day. we have a higher yield than yesterday and a lower yield than yesterday. does that mean something to some technicians it means trend reversal probably a shorter term trend reversal look at it, it certainly seems like maybe a one-day capitulation trade two day of gilts, settled at 4%. two day of bunds which have settled around 212 the difference between the two is about 189 basis points. go to the charts

playing out in the bond market with yields across the board rising the two-year around 4.1% and rick santelli is at the cme. what is the market telling you, rick, as a seasoned observer >> it's telling me that the equity markets better be careful because the big guns are out and not only in the u.s. interest rates are moving and spreads are getting wider. it is as you pointed out a global event i mean sweden and vietnam did 100 basis points one week of two-year its high-water mark was 4.16%. it's had, what, 11 days in a row of higher yields and it's at a 15-year high as you see on the one-week chart intraday of 10s it had a high of 34.71% today it's currently trading around 3.69 and that's up almost 16 basis points these numbers are huge look overseas, bank of england as we discussed raising rates, as well, 50 basis points well, let's look at what happened to the guild. this starts on august 1st. the guild closed a whisker under 3 1/2%, a fresh 11 1/2-year high yield close and just for the month of august it basically went from 180 to 3.50. that is huge the ecb we know is continuing to try to

market where yields are continuing to rise with two-year yields now at the highest level since 2007 rick santellith a look at why bonds are moving so much. rick >> yes indeed. as a matter of fact, you have it, november of 2007, you see it on the chart here we are up 11 basis points, a whisker under 3.5% and one of the reasons, of course, is that the fed in september is most likely going to raise 3/4 of 1% could be the third 3/4 point increase in a row, and the market is making its adjustment. and the curve is steepening today because it isn't the two-year yield that are zooming ahead fastest, it's long dated treasuries the right now you're looking at seven-year and ten-year up 15 basis points as you see on this chart starting in june because we are still getting close but not quite ready to take off that june 14th high yield close just a bit below 3.5% for the ten-year yield. the curve has steepened about three basis points and come a long way, steepening might not be the exact correct terminology. how about less inverted, especially if you're looking at 2s to 10s, now it isn't only in the u.s. a

rick santelli as always tracking the action rick >> yes it's like the treasury market's in a hammockred to yesterday. look at an intraday of two years. yes around 8:30 eastern we had some volatility but when you hook in yesterday and look at what happened at 8:30 eastern a far cry from the rocket ship that yields had on that two-year -- and granted short maturities rocketed higher but all maturities were significantly higher right now you have a two-year only up two basis points and you have the rest of the curve getting close to the unchanged line like 10-year, 20-year and 30-year bonds are actually lower in yield and higher in price now, when i look at the pmt pi data which i brought out at 8:30, it's not really cool in any way. as a matter of fact, what really jumps out at me is the august read on pmt pi, x food and energy, known as the core up .4 was higher than expectations, higher in the rearview mirror. there was nothing cold about this report but after yesterday's cpi and consumer price inflation always hits home, today really fell flat and if we look at the 10-year, and i'll

. >> now to the bond market, rick santelli tracking the action bonds digesting not just powell, but a big rate hike from the ecb. >> yeah. there are so many issues in the marketplace and the ecb with a three-quarter-point rate increase and add in shortly thereafter, testimony question and answer from the chairman of the fed and there was plenty of volatility to be around and look at the two-ieryear note yields d 8:30 easterna you see and as we go further down the curve let's look at what tenures did, and the yield curve was flattening or reinverting and as you look at this chart from august 1st, we just have been sailing higher and almost a 45-degree very smooth line of rates going up and here's the key when you open it to june we have been unable to take on the mid-june high yield and in this case it was under 3.5%, and in the uk where they raised rates and the ecb where they raised rates and they have not taken out their highs in mid-june either and look at bund yields and their highs were at 177 and we're at 173, but the big story today like in the u.s. it's the short maturities th

out of bonds and fresh 15-year high like a two-year and i'm sounding like a broken record here, rick santelli because jay powell is a bit of a broken record with regard to his inflation fighting and the issue is it's been five sessions since his speech on friday and the market investors are believing him a whole lot more you're exactly right let's look at a five-day chart and two-year note yields closed up higher every day and as you pointed out, this will be the highest yield close since november of '07. nearly 15 years. here's what's the only maturity and you can clearly see it hasn't traded around 3.48 yet, and tens, 20s, 30s and none are trading at a mid-june high the two year has broken out. with the euro versus dollar it's all about foreign exchange today. it is on pace for the lowest close in over 20 years look at the dollar versus the yen. it's on pace for its lowest close against the greenback in 24 years august of 1998 which means, of course, the dollar index is about ready to close in a fresh, 20-year high. contessa, i'm sorry. i lost your name. >> it's not the first time it's happ

crossing that key number for the first time since all the way back in 2007 why do we care let's go to rick santelli at the cme. what does this move in the two-year tell us and what does it mean? i know we know ten years are for mortgages. why does the two-year matter >> you have to remember, the ten-year is definitely a market-driven rate, as is the two-year, but a whole less market driven. a lot of central bank manipulation that's been going into interest rates since well before the 2007/2008 credit crisis they're tracking the federal reserve's ultimate overnight rate and fed fund futures and two-year note yields somewhat jive, because fed fund futures are giving you a terminal rate of around 4.5% we crossed over 4% today i'm on the floor home of the vix. and it's guinn us a great lead-in to today's fed meeting a 24-hour vix was down a bit i would consider down a bit important on today and if you look at a two-week chart, it was the 13th of september we had that cpi number you could just see it right in that chart boom it popped up rather dramatically and if you go from the intraday to a daily cha

yields had a big jump this week and retreating today rick santelli, tell me what's going on in the bondket. >> yes contessa, to that end, let's look at a week to date chart of the two-year note yield and you can see on the far right, today's activity, yields move down what's notable, not that we're down ten basis points on the day at 340 which we are, but the fact is that we are unchanged on the week that's a big deal. especially when you go to the long end look at the week to date of tens on the far right we had the same amount of volatility and it was a mixed job report, but in the end, labor force participation going up, bringing people back in does raise the unemployment rate, but it's a good thing, truly it is. as you see at 320 on a yield of tens we were down five on the day and we're still up 16 basis points on the week and the twos and the tens were the least inverted since the end of july now that news of 12:18ish eastern gazprom changed everything look at the foreign exchange market and the intro of the euro versus the dollar and it pulled the rug out from underneath it and wh

wells fargo, we appreciate the blunt conversation it's important >>> five-year notes up for action rick santelli is at the cme. >> today's $44 billion five-year notes, the grade for demand, d-minus, dog minus the yield, 4.228 on those $44 billion five-year notes. two-thirds of the way through our complete supply. tomorrow's seven-year kicks off and finishes $123 billion. it wasn't a great auction, no matter how you slice it. the bid to cover a 2.27 was well below the ten-auction average of 2.24 and it's the lightest since of july of 2019 indirect bidders, the important foreign demand side, the weakest since september of '21. i could go through it, but sit was just weak. catching a knife at this point in time trading treasuries, it's better for investors to go to the secondary markets, which is what they choose to do in my respects but this gives you some type of an indication. if you look at the chart, you can clearly see rates are moving back up towards that 4.25% mark in the seven-year extending their run. >> sully, back to you. >>> at the risk of aggressive rate hikes may be spooking investor

i hope you refi'ed that is a stunning surge off the lows rick santelli is here to put it all in perspective the move, monster. >> yeah, it is so monster move if you look at a two-week chart of tens, you can see the buildup to what occurred yesterday, which was technically significant. that was, open a chart up to june 1st, we closed above that spike in mid-june, which was just a bit below 3.5%. and that really did open the floodgates to some extent. and if you open the chart up to early march of 2020, you can see what brian is talking about. whether it was early march, when you had a low-yield close of 0.54%, or the all-time low-yield close, it was on august 4th of 2020, at 0.51% so half of 1%. it has been a big move and what makes it even more intense is the notion of rate of change many have said, well, interest rates in the 70s and 80s were much higher. but, it's the rate of change, how quickly they've moved higher, and of course, discounting future earnings at a much higher short overnight rate is taking a lot of zing out of the stock market it's not only here, but all across the globe

rick santelli has that number.orm of august producer price index hitting the wires and exactly as expected on headline as steve pointed out, minus .1 1/10 of 1% by the way, all high water marks are from march of this year. 1.7 was that high water mark strip off food and energy core, 1/10 hotter. up .4 of 1%. high water mark in march up 1.3. if we strip out food, energy and trade, it's up .2 exactly matching expectations and exactly matching up .2 in the rear-view mirror up 1% was the high water mark in march. now let's take the wide view year over year, ppi headline, final demand up 8.7% 1/10 lighter than expectations and definitely below 9.8% in the rear-view mirror high water mark, 11.7% strip out energy, it's hotter by .3, 7.3 in the rear-view mirror 7.6. high water mark, 9.7, as i said, all in march of this year. and finally, year-over-year ex food, energy and stratrade up 5.6% .2 light in the rear-view mirror which was 5.8. high water mark there, 7.1 so there's very little doubt that we have, in my opinion, pr

. >> rick santelli, thank you, sir.s up here and jeremy segal, professor of finance with the wharton school good morning to you, sir you said provocative things of where you think it's headed and we'll get to all of that in just a minute, but your reaction to these numbers. >> first of all, this is august numbers. you know, we're one day away from october. >> good point. >> i haven't looked into the details of the number. we pointed out that the way these indices are constructed that housing costs are very lagged and they will continue to go up even though as we saw the housing index and the national housing index and housing prices are going down so a lot of these indicators are lagged in their incorporation of inflation particularly in terms of housing i have to disagree with rick about year over year because that is 11 months that we already know the fed has to be forward looking. they have to look at what's going on in the market, in the housing market, in the rental market and in the commodity market and in the oth

we're getting more right now we go to rick santelli for it. fidence from the conference board for the month of september out, expecting a number a smidge below 105. much better. it's a good thing. 108.0, that is the best level since april. if we look at what the current or present situation is, 149.6, that follows 145.4, also the best since april if we look at what lies ahead in the form of expectations, 80.3 that is the best since february. now, richmond fed release, the fed index at zero reverses the minus 10, and in the rearview mirror is was minus 8. our august readout, new home sales expected to be up 500,000. buckle up, 685,000 685,000. that is the best number since march when it was over 700,000 our last look at 711,000 was the worst since january 2016, although it now is upgraded from 511,000 to 532,000 and to understand that big jump at a time where interest rates have been jumping all over the board, let's head east and ask diana olick. >> and you hit it, rick. two words, mortgage rates. let me tell you, mortgage rates in june went ov

. ♪♪ >>> rick santelli here with s&p, global u.s. services, pmi. side, 43 replaces 44.1 but it is still the lowest level since may of 2020 when it was 37.5. if we look at the composite, 44.6, that's versus the mid-month, so also lower also lowest levels since may of 2020 we'll have the services index in about 12 minutes but watching the service sector deteriorate of course is something to pay attention to whether it's lingering supply issues, employment issues, it all comes home to roost and "squawk on the street" will return after a short break. (vo) what can a nationwide 5g network from t-mobile for business do for your business? unlock new insights and efficiency-right now. allow monitoring of productivity at remote job sites, with next-generation bandwidth. enable ai cameras that spot factory issues in real time, using next-generation speed. and deliver ultra-capacity 5g coverage that's years ahead of the competition. t-mobile for business has 5g that's ready right now. at xfinity, we're constantly innovating. and we're working 24/7 to connect

rick santelli here with live cmhq with the second round of breaking news, global, pmi, the new read to replace it, the final is 51.5. two tenths of improvement but still the lightest three going back to july of 2020, july of 2020 we see that interest rates are up but for a change and maybe for the better in the long run, the curve is steepening. long-dated treasury rates are rising faster and more aggressively than short rates and obviously removing or t loring at least some growth onheong end, make it more responsive to the upside "squawk on the street" will return after a short break do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or call the number on you

rick santelli has more. >> july factory orders, carl, we're expecting up 0.2, a big miss down one full that is the weakest number as a matter of fact that's, a, the first negative number since september of last year, but you have to go all the way back to april of 2020, which was the all-time low to find a lower number this is definitely not a good sign at this point, and the revision last month from 2% down to 1.8 strip out transportation, no improvement, down 1.1% if we look at durable good odds, these are july finals, so this is different these replace mid-month reads. the july final read is down 0.1%, down if we take out transportation in this case, it discusses improve. a proxy for capital expenditures and spending it's one-tenth lower than our mid-month read that's a bit of a disappointment , mid-monday read. it's notable in the dramatic drove since the 8:30 eastern employment report was out. we now out down seven basis points even down that much on a ten, we are still up significantly on the week leslie, back to you. >> lots of moves there, also slipping into negative territory.

. >> why, thank you, rick santelli we will jump on that yield inversion question in a moment we are 30he trading session. we're going to start with darden restaurants, the olive garden parent reporting mixed quarterly results. same store sales growth coming in below street forecast and that is sending darden down about 4% right now novavax shares are getting downgraded to neutral. jpmorgan saying guidance cut may not have gone far enough stock down 10% now down more than 80% year-to-date. >>> and a bright spot in the market robinhood moving higher on reports that the s.e.c. will let wall street continue payment for order flow transactions. stock is up about 2.5% right now. still down will 42% since the start of this year david? >> central banks are on the move around the world this a day after the fed delivered that third historic 75-basis point rate hike steve liesman joins us on a day as well where we're seeing the two-year yield above 4.6%. quite some moves there >> did you say 4.6, david? >> 4.06, 4.06. >> thank you you freaked me out for a minute. >> didn't mean to alarm you, stev

you plan your trades and stay on top of the market ♪ >>> welcome back to "squawk on the street," rick santelliket day with breaking news s&p global, pmi's the manufacturing pmi coming off the worst levels since july of 2020. well, it rebounded but only slightly, 51.8 and that's facing in the rear view mirror the 51.5 i alluded to they will change if we look at the services side, 43.7 was the weakest since may of 2020. that improved to 49.2 and if we look at the composite, 44.6 in the rear view mirror, rebounding to 49.3. so, one out of three is an expansion territory. obviously, services, the bigger swath of the economy, and the composite are not, so there's plenty of room for improvement on a day where the global reset is of giant proportions. tu aer see wl strt"il rernft ahort break (vo) at viking, we are proud to have been named the world's number one for both rivers and oceans by travel and leisure, as well as condé nast traveler. but it is now time for us to work even harder, searching for meaningful experiences and new adventures for you to embark upon. they say when you reach the top, t

obama and is now a professor at the university of chicago's booth school of business, and our own rick santellieen describe what people have called pretty violent moves including peter boockvar >> oh, yeah, and peter would know have great respect for peter and his research what we are seeing in my opinion is the opening chapter of capitulation it's not going to end today, although i do think the extremes i'm seeing, 4.26 in twos 3.82 in 10s. i would think if i was in the pits these days i would be looking to fade those, not in the grand scheme of things but at least for today the problem is that we have gone from tina to a new tina. there is no alternative, believe me, stocks aren't everybody's first choice anymore but there still is no alternative to the u.s ultimately, what we are seeing is that global central bank policies really for the last 20 years to save us from pain, to rip off the band-aid slowly, it all came home to roost manipulation has a certain runway and we have come to the end of that runway foreign exchange is the battlefield, and as the pound deteriorates and you put tax cuts

rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago take it away >> let's look at initial and continuing248,000 on initial we best the that by a nice margin, 232,000. 232,000. that is the smallest number going back to june 24th. so the last week in june that is good news. if we look at continuing claims, exactly as expected, becky, 1,438,000. how does that stack up 1,438,000 is roughly in launch the last few months, you can see we're bunching up right in that area now non-farm productivity, second quarter final, final, minus 4.1. minus 4.1. you know, it wasn't minus 4.6, so that's an improvement, but i would tell you this. the first quarter of '22 was at minus 7.4 , the worst since 1947 the second worst ever, because they started keeping records on productivity in 1947 let's look at unit labor costs our second quarter final ends up at 10.2% 10.2%. not too bad. but we all know that productivity should not have a minus sign, and it's never nice to see double digit unit maybe costs. there's a lot of excuses out there. there's anomalies in the economy. traders don't want to be scientists or

"squawk box" is coming right back ♪ ♪ >>> welcome back to "squawk box," rick santelli here live at cmhqis is a very volatile series and we'll come back in a couple of weeks and adjust it. the headline number expected down 0.3% is down 0.2% and that is the biggest month over month negative drop since it was down 0.7 in february of this year you strip out transportation and it improves marketedly up 0.2% and that's the best level since last month when we were up 0.2 and here we go capital defense orders, a proxy for business spending and it is up 1.3% and that is really a good number and the second best of the year outside of january when it was up 1.4% and if you swap out orders for shipments and it is up 0.3 and it is up as expected where the capital goods orders were up multiple times and by the way, in the rear-view mirror, and the capital goods and the category we like, last month,.3 moved up to 0.7 and pretty good outside of the headline number and interest rates have come down rather marketedly right now you're down 20 basis points and it's down in a ten-year and if you look overse

sara mehlich, rick santelli, steve liesman. shot on what you think this number's going to be. nila, let's start but. >> i'm at 290, though i think there's a big range. august is a notorious month for seasonal adjustment and the difficulty in measuring it made worse by the pandemic and education and health over the past few years these trends may make that range pretty wide. >> betsy, let's get a quick number we've only got about a minute to get through everybody. >> over the last ten years, the august number has been 167,000 jobs fewer than the july number. so i think that's where expectations are i think the real truth is that it's not just a measurement phenomenon but we're going to see job growth has slowed but remains strong >> tyler, a number >> i think we're looking at probably 350,000 we just have so many vacancies that it's hard for me to see a slow down much more than that. >> we're at 400,000. watching wages, labor participation and demand is stronger than expected >> rick, quick number? >> 266,000 266. >> and steve w

joining us to talk more about the fed rates and the market, edward ardeni and steve liesman and rick santellieer do you remember the days of disinflation, low inflation and really solid growth and what a wonderful thing that is to have to rub all over yourself if you could just do it for years at a time and then if you look at the corollary, converse, whatever you want to call it, i mean, really bad inflation and a possibility of a weak economy. and you've got one is saying we're going off the cliff in terms of the economy we're going off the cliff you have to be really worried. the other side, look at the hot inflation number you should go 1 to 2%. how can you have people who are so certain on opposite fed advice i think what we have to do is focus on the reality what are they actually saying and doing? it seems to me they are committed to raise the interest rate significantly at this meeting next week. i do think they're going to come around and conclude that maybe they have a credibility problem and i'm trying to get ahead of it trying to catch up to the 2-year treasury note which is sayin

the 10-year looks like it's yielding 3.457 rick santelli is standing by the cme in chicago and, rick,here i'm going slowly on initial jobless claims, 213,000. that is definitely below the expectations and at least until we get a revision, that's 9,000 below last week. last time we were down to 213,000 was a while ago. i would say we'd have to go back to the end of may to see a lower number continuing claims 1,403,000. a very, very nice drop there we were expecting a number close to 1.475 so that's good news. indeed, empire manufacturing, this is september number it is down 1.5 down 1.5 even though that isn't good news, we were expecting down close to 13 and the big number lately, that was in april when it was down almost 25 points last month down 31.3 it is yet to be revised. we haven't had a positive number since july if you look at retail sales, up .3. we were expecting down .1. very solid number. strip out autos and you can see that autos kicked in a lot to the headlines because you go exactly the other way, down .3 of 1%. strip out autos and gas, it goes flat line, unchanged phill

we've got the 10-year note 3.567 an 11-year high, just under 4% now on the 2-year note rick santelli rve and has the numbers. rick >> yes august read on housing starts, joe, expected to be around 1.45 million seasonally adjusted annualized units much stronger. haven't been able to say that much with regard to housing numbers. 1.575. that's a good number not when you consider in the rearview mirror june was 1, 599, 000. nonetheless it's a nice pop and if we look at permits, expecting a number around 1.6 million. a bit of a disappointment here 1, 517,000 last month a subtle revision to the upside, but definitely permits are definitely a disappointment there the last time we were this close to 1.5 million, you would have to go all the way back to august, august when it was 1.52. you have to go further back. we're going to go back to june where it was 1.3 million that's the last time comparable to these numbers mortgage rates at 6%, there's a lot of headwinds yesterday the national association of home builders sentiment index down for the ninth straight months at 46. we see, as you pointe

rick santelli here live at cmehq with breaking news initial jobless claims for the week ending septembert level since april 22nd of 2022 when we were at 181,000 and if we look at continuing claims 1,347,000, another very, very good number 1,347,000 would now be the lowest level going back to june 17th week. now let's get into the gdp, still remains at minus 0.6% and still back-to-back with negative quarters of gdp and still debating whether we're in a recession or not and second quarter gdp moves up to 1.5 and here are the numbers we're all waiting for, right the price index. zoom, zoom, zoom, up to 9.0 and it still remains the highest level and it we look at what's going with the core personal expenditure and well cooler than 6.1 in june which was the highest level since 1983 if we look at the marketplace, we can definitely look at how interest rates are coming back after a wild ride yesterday and everybody blaming the bank of england, but as i point out and the wall street journal finally point out, their debt to gdp is lower than ours and our reserve currency status give us us the rig

sorry to leave you out it's time now for the report rick santelli, hopefully you've got the numbers fordline number expected to be down is up .1 instead of down .1 do remember the high water mark there was in june when it was the highest level since 2005 when it was up 1.3%. up only .1 of course the lowest since, well, last month when we were unchanged. if we strip out the all important food and energy and do understand gas is down, what, 26% month over month, it's food we have to pay attention to. up .6 of 1%, double the expectation. the high water mark there is up .9. that was in april. that went back to 1981 up 6 cents. now the year-over-year numbers expecting up 8%. up 8.3 year over year. high water mark there was of course 9.1 that goes back to 1918 8.3 equals april and it is the lowest level since february when it's 7.9 if we strip out the food an energy on a year-over-year perspective, up 6.3% we're expecting up 5.9 the high water markup 6.5. that was in march. that was the highest since '82 when we see 6.3, that actually now is the highest since march when it was the highest sin

we're going to have our own debate on the path of rates and with that we have seth carpenter, rick santellii'm going to start from first to last or last to first in this case what do you really expect not just the number, but what do you think mr. powell is going to say? >> i think that to understand what powell is going to say, you only have to spend three minutes and we read his very short and pointed speech from jackson hole that is rates are going to go up, they're going to stay there for a time there's going to be pain in the economy. and that that pain is necessary to vanquish inflation from the economy.vanish inflation from the economy the market is priced for a 4.5% peak funds rate. i think that might be a little higher than the fed is thinking right now although i think the fed has flexibility to go higher if it needs it what the fed is thinking is this idea of somewhere around 4% before they stop and look around, but they may go higher than that. right now our fed survey has 4.25, the market has 4.25. i think the fed might give the rate hike some time to see how they work but i do

friday and the last couple of days has been a huge point that has moved the markets everywhere rick santelliond story unfold. what do you think of the boe's move today >> well, first of all, i think that we automatought to make a e things clear i have been watching what is going on in bond land, but it really does go back to the credit crisis. and to answer or to try to even understand what the bank of england is doing, or how all the ex-government bureaucrats or large institutional ego traders are all complaining at the bank of england ruining the world and ruining the markets, they really need to think about what is happening the last dozen years we all can't be japan. we all can't print our way to prosperity because once you get more than a couple large economies playing the same game, the jig's up for the most part and when you add into that covid, when you add into that shooting ourselves in the foot on energy, nobody is talking about this, as a matter of fact, this is not a good thing to say, but in my opinion, there is a big chunk of what is going on in england and the bank of england

rick santelli here breaking news live from cme hq our initial jobless claims for the week of septemberat equals last week at 213,000 until we get a revision and 213,000 continues to represent the lowest level since the end of may if we look at continuing claims, always a week in arrears from september 10th, 1,379,000. much lower than expected much lower than the 1.4 million in the rear-view mirror. that is the lightest level going back to -- well, july 15th the week of july 15th. that is good news on both fronts i'm going to throw one more out there. our second quarter current account balance. this is the bigger cousin to the trade balance and it includes overseas production, domestically owned the reason i bring it up is it's minus 251 billion. not a small number but it's coming off of 282 billion, which was the biggest ever going back to 1960. that's a long time ago and as we look at the 10s to 2s, at minus 52, it's the most inverted since 1982. we'll call it 40 years and of course we continue to look at the bank of japan who intervened first time in 20 years. let's all remember, whe