rick santelli, i'm told is standing by in chicago rick >> i am here you know, it has been such a fascinating two-year note yields, 4.5%, they're up 17, 1-7, basis points on the week. but if you look at a ten-year note yield at 381, it is unchanged on the week. bonds at 392 are down ten basis points on the week we all know that fed speak this week has been anything but flag matich they're wild out there to think the longer maturities are so ignoring fed speak with regard to the slaying of inflation and the addressive tendencies of the fed just underscores how investors pretty much uniformly are looking for a major slowing in the u.s. economy. look at a week to date of three months to ten year, minus 43 basis points, certainly not the most inverted it has been, but it is still at levels we haven't seen in 15 1/2 years minus 51, 52 earlier in the week was the worst levels and if you look at the dollar index, many traders believe it peaked in september. right towards the end, it traded a bit above 114, and even though it is fighting to survive today a bit it really does have some technical issue

there he is, rick santelli, slipping right in, brother. >> i'm good, man. >> popping right in. >> ifith treasury yields, it's quite important to tie it, hook it into last week's important movement if you look at the two-year note yield and the far left of the screen, you could see it popped up, and it's been pretty much sideways and clipping off historic high yield closes any type of a yield close that's lower on the session we're now back about five basis points if we look at ten-year, and go back to last thursday, look at the bottom there this is important. we have good support at this 410, 411 area. traders will use 410 as a rolling area to protect. maybe the biggest number of the month, over the lseveral months we have talked about this many times. guess what we had yesterday, or excuse me, today we had a three-month bill auction today, its yield, 4.12%. if we go to three months to ten, that flipped it back negative after four positive sessions it's inverted again, and continues to be lightly inverted we want to pay closer attention and finally, the dollar index, it had a nice po

but it was already in the market >> rick santelli, give us some thoughts on the 30-year. i know you're watching that one closely. >> the 30-year was at 407 prior to the announcement. the ten-year was at 402. two years were at 452 plus right now, the 30 year bond is the only maturity that's popped up that screams we're all done with the move until the press conference so viewers, if you're a technician, you should put a red dot on all the low yields because if we start to take those out during the press conference, that will be technically significant. >> very interesting. jim, let me come back to you if i might and ask you do you see it as steve does, which is perhaps the fed is going to reach its terminal point sometime in the spring >> i do. i do think what steve said is correct. that' what's been priced in the market ss that the fed gets to their rate of 5% i think that's exactly correct what's different as steve also pointed out is that they put it in a statement so i think what that does for us is in the markets in terms of thinking about probability of outcomes, i c

rick santelli, always giving us 100% rick, thank you. >>> all right, so with the federal reserve unlikely to back down on rate hikes, does the market once again get ahead of itself your next guest says, yeah, in the short-term, but also says, we are getting closer to a bottom what does it all mean? let's ask the chief equity strategist, senior portfolio manager at mai capital management there will be a day, and i want to promise our viewers and i rarely do this, because it's hard to keep promises all the time, chris. there will be a day that we do to the utter the words "federal reserve" all day long on cnbc. that day is not today or tomorrow or the next how closely do you listen to every day a new speaker? >> oh, i think you put your finger on it, brian. and it's noice to be you again. if i could have the answer to any one question, it would be, how high are rates going to go having said that, i think in six months, you and i won't be talking about inflation nearly as much as we're going to be talking about recession, employment, so that statistical focus will change, and in an important

really recession indicator rick santelli, thank you oil is closing higher for the day.. and nat gas is sinking let's get to the commodity desk. >> starting with oil it is advancing. the dlart asent cools. china and the countries covid policy does remain front and center it is the largest crude importer turning to natural gas, the big moverer falling more than 10% and giving back almost all of yesterday's 12% gain part of the decline comes as it looks increasingly likely that f freeport return to production will be delayed. it's been shut since a fire back in june. less demand for nat gas. there are a couple notable movers in the energy patch today. marathon petroleum jumping to a record high after the third quarter net income came in at $4.5 billion that's up from roughly $700 million during the same quarter one year ago fellow refiner fphillips 66 also on the move. >> thank you the recent runup in stocks sent the dow to the best monthly performance since 1976 may not last in a new note, barclay's calls the hope rally premature let's bring in head of the u.s. equity str

. >>> ten year notes up for action rick santelli is tracking all the action >> we had 35 billion of ten-year notes that came to auction by the u.s. treasury. this could be one of the weakest auctions i've covered. the yield 1.14%. the problem it was right under 411 in the when issued market. many of the metrics are weak weakest since august of 2019 indirects are under the average. directs are about the only thing near its average and the dealer's takedown the was 24.4%. the ten-auction average was 26%. d minus, dog minus, that's pretty much the lowest grade you give at an auction the only way we get an f is if we don't move all the paper. now, why did it tail so badly? well, we have cpi in the morning, butt the numbers are supposed to be cooler. it seems to me this could be something to do with, of course, the midterms and the uncertainly surrounding them, and we'll have to continue to monitor all that is ten-year notes. if ten year note yields pop above 420. >> certainly reaction will happen in the stock market to that when was the last time you gave an auction a d minus >> honestly i think

let's turn to rick santelli for instant reaction to what you just heard from steve and fed governor wallers interesting because data dependent would imply that you want to wait and see how the data points look, see how the next cpi looks but to be picking these numbers for december, saying you're going to tighten half a percent, maybe two, to me seems awfully aggressive considering the data may turn sour. especially on a day like today and i'll tell you why in a moment hey, 20-year bond auction. i gave it an a-minus they couldn't get enough of them look at a two-year and pay particularly close attention 8:30 eastern that's when basically we made the high we had a good r today. the r, retail sales was good but it marked the high yield instead of marching higher, which it would normally do if it was strong, and it all has to do with mr. waller and the federal reserve. look at a 10-year. very similar except one difference. yes, it spiked, but it kept moving lower as a matter of fact, if you put a two-day of 10s, you'll see why it sped up because it started trending under yesterday's 2 3/4% lo

rick santelli has the action yields down, prices up, rick >> a historic day with the intraday moves and it started in my opinion with the year-over-year numbers on sfefkally core cpi it came in at 6.3%, which is below the 6.6%, which was the highest since '82. the reason i'm showing the chart is, listen, i'm not casting duet -- doubt on the rally or the big moves, but it didn't come down that much and we need to be cognizant of that. look at a 2-year note on an interday perspective what a drop. it's on pace for a two-week low close. it doesn't end there a chart of 10s they're trading currently right around 3.85. we all know it was over 4% before the number came out it's on pace for a one-month low yield close. and finally, how did that affect the recession spread well, in a big way here's three months to 10s currently trading at minus 31 basis points that's the most inverted this spread has been in three years and finally, the dollar index. maybe the most important market to pay attention to of all it has the biggest reach, cheaper dollars are a good thing for economies outside the u.s.

rick santelli here live at cemhq with the first of the breaking news in the form of s&p global manufacturing number to hover just above -- or just below 50 and it's delivering. 50.4 technically, it's a bit better than expectations. that follows the mid-month read, 49.9 this is not anything stellar in september we were at 52.0 before we went under 50. and last month's half month read was the first read below 50 going back to june of 2020 but it didn't survive. we still have construction spending and ism pmis at the top of the hour. "squawk on the street" will return after a short break municipal bonds don't usually get the media coverage the stock market does. in fact, most people don't find them all that exciting. but, if you're looking for the potential for consistent income that's federally tax-free, now is an excellent time to consider municipal bonds from hennion & walsh. if you have at least 10,000 dollars to invest, call and talk with one of our bond specialists at 1-800-376-4376. we'll send you our exclusive bond guide free. with details about how bonds can be an important part of you

morgan, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you. we are 30 minutes into the trading session.overs. we'll start with qualcomm. plunging after getting a worse than expected revenue outlook and slumping smartphone shipments at play. we'll have more on that quarter later this hour. you can see those shares are down 9%. robinhood lowering its operating expense forecast for the full year those shares are popping 5%. roku, getting rocked saying it expects advertising revenue and sales of its devices to fall in the current quarter, the holiday quarter. roku is down 15 now. down 80% year-to-date. >>> let's get to the fed this morning. another interest rate hike delivered yesterday. that was not a surprise. perhaps the signal there's no pivot coming any time soon has surprised markets, that's the way it looks given where the s&p was and is now our senior economics reporter steve liesman has it all for us. >> it was an interesting day, david. there was this hope for a pause that lived for about 30 minutes yesterday. the fed's statement comes out at 2:00 p.m., with the impression fed mig

consumer confidence out a couple of seconds ago rick santelli's got it good morning, rick >> yes, theserom the conference board. we're expecting 100 on the headline number. 100.2. that is the smallest since 95.3 in july. if we look at the present situation at 137.4, that is the lightest level going back to, well, let's see. how about april of last year april of 2021. finally, on the expectations, 75.4, following 78.1 that is the lightest level since july of last year when we were at 65.6. these numbers are a bit of a disappointment all lower than last month even with slight revegss. morgan, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you. >>> we are 30 minutes into the trading session. laggard on the s&p 500 after jeffries downgraded to underperform from hold analysts writing, ev bidirectional charging is a game-changing technology that will disrupt the backup power space. shares are down 2%. >>> silvergate is feeling the impact from the ongoing crypto fallout. that fell after blockfi filed for bankruptcy silvergate says it has minimal exposure you can see those shares are trading about flat n

rick i don't see any way i can do it without cutting somebody off it's time for the money and rick santelliing the october jobs report to show us roughly 200,000 it's a beat 233,000 non-farm payrolls a bit of a fly in ointment here, i'm sorry 233,000 private payrolls the fly in ointment here 263,000 in the rearview mirror, those were the low water marks meaning we've made the lowest level of month over month non-farm jobless expansion since december of 2020 minus 115,000, so 261,000 if we look at manufacturing payroll 230,000 the unemployment rate moved up, it was 3% the best it's been so up to 3.7% that would mean the highest level from february of this year when it was at 3.8%. the afternoon hourly earnings, it's up .4%. prior to that it was five-tenths. this is the best since july, if we go broader and go year over year outlook on earnings it's up 4.7% exactly as expected but do keep in mind this has been drifting lower now if we go pre-covid it was 3.5%, but 4.7% is the lowest level on wages year over year going all of the way back to august of 2021 august of 2021 average hourly work we

the treasury market, the yields are popping tro-year yield trading at highest level since 2007 rick santelli is at the cme as yields continue to pop >> sevens are wild two-year note yields on the highest pace since 2007. brian nailed it. the three-year note yield was dabbling in and out. it needs to close above a 4.65 yield to make a new cycle high-yield close would does any of that matter? it's very important to realize that when we have t-bill auctions on monday and tuesday, you'll see those yields jump because the fed raised rates maturities are going to tack along with what the fed is doing. further down the curve you go, the more bag these mature tis carry. people might want to buy them pushing yields down. right now, that's the only maturity look at one month of tens. hyg, high-yield etf. there's a three-day chart. notice how flat it was and, boom, right after that statement before the press conference, all of a sudden it fell out of bed if you were to talk to any of the swap traders, vanilla swaps, fra swaps, you don't know what any of that means other than the fact if you were going

let's get to rick santelli >> our november final read on university of michigan sentiment expected tos up, impresses us at 56.8 remember the low area there was 50 in june of this year. as we look at current conditions, 58.8 -- 58.8, that's the best number since october when it was 65.6 of course, since this is a final read, the previous numbers for this will end up being 65.6, and finally expectations, 55.6 so we improved all the reads from what was the mid-month reads, and this is a good thing. let's look at the inflation index, shall we? the one-year inflation, 4.9% the high watermark there was 5.4. that was in march, the highest since '81. we are reversing if we look at five to ten-year, it's at 3% 3% we've had several times do keep in mind 3.1 is the high watermark going back to 2011 we had that twice, the most recent being in june finally, new home sales expected 570,000. that seasonally adjusted annualized units, much better at 632,000. keep in mind it was july's low point, the 543,000 that was the lightest since march of 2019 we know interest rates have gone up we no housing ha

. ♪ >>> rick santelli here with breaking news.r read on chicago pmi, are we going to have our third number below 50? indeed, 37.2 not only is it our third number below 50, it's our first number below 40, and this is the lowest level going back to 32.1 in may of 2020. that was the low due to covid. so, this number is a huge disappointment 45.2 in the rear view mirror, and if we consider the previous data was better than expected, this probably puts it back down to 3.75 with regard to tens. still have j.o.l.t. and penny home sales to go "squawk on the street" will return after a short break ♪♪ we all have a purpose in life - a “why.” maybe it's perfecting that special place that you want to keep in the family... ...or passing down the family business... ...or giving back to the places that inspire you. no matter your purpose, at pnc private bank, we will work with you every step of the way to help you achieve it. so let us focus on the how. just tell us - what's your why? ♪♪ >>> i think we can make a lot of progress in the labor mar

guidance right now >>> let's move on to the bond market investors are awaiting the big cpi report rick santellitracking the action for us. >> right here in place and it might be the midterms, and the fact we don't know all the final results. something is affecting traders today. look at an intraday of ten-year notes, that line on the right side where yields popped up from 411, 412, up to 416, 417, that was an auction i gave it a d minus. could be one of the worst ten-year auctions i've seen. we know what's at stake, whether it's politics or cpi the fly in the ointment is tomorrow's cpi is supposed to be a bit cooler yields towards the high end of the range, however if you put a two-day chart, you can see that's not the case. as a matter of fact, it underscores the fact that even though yields have popped, we still have not gotten to the middle of yesterday's range. here's an intraday of the dollar index. similar to interest rates, it looks like it's flying until you realize that yesterday, open the chart up, yesterday we closed at a two month low. from an intraday perspective yesterday, we trad

carl, back to you. >> thanks so much, rick santelli good wednesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the" the markets looking to put the midterm results behind them once they're completed. in the meantime a lot of corporate results as we get ready for cpi tomorrow. >> that's right. we're 30 minutes into the trading session. we'll get to disney and meta in a moment first, three other names we're watching starting with affirm, those shares plummeting after a cut to annual guidance the drop in demand for peloton which is a key merger weighing on the results you can see down 17% right now. a big drop for roblox shares as well while daily active users jumped the amount spent on the platform by users, that declined in the gaming platform, reported a wider-than-expected loss, down about 11.5%. finally we're tracking tesla, new filings revealing elon musk sold nearly $4 million shares following his purchase of twitter. those shares are down marginally, about a third of 1%. since october down like 16%. >> far more than the group overall which tesla is a part, in fact, the dominant part let's move

rick santelli tracking all the action in chicago. rick >> hi, seema indeed, yields are moving higher and they're moving higher in a way we don't normally see. look at a two-day chart of two-year note yields you can see they're slightly higher up four basis points but the further down the curve you go the bigger the yield gains get. look at the two-day of tens. they're up over seven basis points so we are actually seeing some steepening for a change. and even though the twos to tens curve is inverted it is a positive sign. now, if we look at bunds you can clearly see that they were down seven basis points to a yield of around 192 that isn't far from some of the lowest yields they've in the last couple of months. and one of the main reasons is that we see that various parts of germany's inflation rates are coming down. and they're not coming down quickly but they are coming down as a matter of fact, month over month changes were all negative. the blended yar over year was 11.3 vs. 11.7, which was the high water mark. if we look at what'

rick santelli is tracking the action for us. hi, rick >> hi, contessa.ou didn't need to read the minutes of the last fed meeting because the markets were pretty clear in their opinion. look at intraday of 2-year on the short maturity side. look at further down the curve, intra of 10s both responded very quickly. rates dropped. they dropped about three basis points from where they were pretty much across the curve but of course the curve is having more buying and bigger drops and longer maturities. if you look at a two-month of 10s we're not far from two-month low yields and some of the markets that are closed already like bunds as you see october 1st chart, they close at a 1 1/2-month low yield. and if you look at gilts in the uk they close at a 2 1/2-month low yield. and the dollar index, while rates were dropping and stocks were popping the dollar index was dropping as well and it is very close to three-month lows what does all this mean? well, we saw initial continuing claims creep up a bit and we saw all three pmis under 50. and even with strong dura

credit folks can't wait around they have to make their moves before the actual news rick santelli is at the cme. you're pumped for powell and company. >> i sam so pumped for powell and company. 2s are virtually unchanged 10s are virtually unchanged. all other maturities are basically within a basis point of settlement, which is actually quite typical. but the lead-in is very interesting. remember, the 20th and the 21st of the last fed meeting. let's look at all maturities of relevance were affected by the last three quarters of a point increase on the 21st here's two-years they're currently up about 57 basis points they were up several basis points below 4% on the 20th. the day before the three quarter point increases. here's what's really interesting. three months of 10st the recession spread is definitely paying attention to the last fed meeting they were positive 27. now they're minus 10 and now five sessions in a row that we've closed inverted the dollar index, well, it's about a penny higher than it was a the last fed meeting here's where it gets interesting. you said, what is t

been talking about, financial conditions, we just had a 20-year auction, i'm sure you'll go to rick santelliut it it was particularly strong but just before cpi, we had a decidedly weak ten-year auction. we still have that market functions and financial instability to deal with but ultimately, what i've been penciling in with steve's survey, steve liesman, that is, that the fed pauses sooner than most people think, but actually finds themselves tightening again in the back half of next year that said, that path from 9% cpi down to 4 through the end of this year, and the first half of next year should be a very favorable period for equities and treasuries for that matter, and that really what we should be focusing on right now >> i go back ago all the way back to 1995, back in the old days, took a horse to work. and the fed raised rates i think it was 2.5% in 1994. in 1995, the dow rose, i think it was 33% i'm going off memory so maybe off a little bit, but you get my directionally correct comment, barry my point is, just because the fed is raising rates does not mean that the stock market ca

pretty good indicator of demand and where people think inflation may be going rick santelli, how did that 30-year bond auction go. how do you grade it, professor >> exactly the opposite of yesterday, sully yesterday was a d-minus. today is a solid "a. boy, this is what an auction should look like and i'll tell you what, when you see yields drop as much as they have prior to the auction, i have to tell you, i was a bit surprised at the aggressiveness of investors $21 billion 30-year, the yield, 4.08 the when issued market yield was hovering at 4.11 so turn the screws three basis points, exact opposite of tailing, and that's a good thing. and if you look at all the metrics, they were very good the one that really stuck out, though, was the dealer takedown. sully, the ten-auction average is 13% i have 20 years here i cannot find a better, a smaller takedown by the dealer community. a solid "a," and it really goes a long way in telling us, not only do investors and foreign exchange investors pay close attention to this morning's numbers, but in investors think that the trend of less infl

we don't talk about seven-year notes very much, but let's do it rick santelli is at the cme. i'm not even sure that i was aware that there were seven-year notes. >> well, you know what, neither were investors and it doesn't really matter the maturity because the dynamic is the same whether we're looking at a two-year, five-year, seven-year, ten-year, 20-year, 30-year, the auctions aren't doing well, and this is a case study in how well they are not going 35 million seven-year notes, sully, so we had 2s, we had 5s, now we had 7s, total package, $120 billion they moved it along because of the holidays the great dog mind is d-minus. it was trading around 3.86%. the auction ultimately went off at 3.89% those three basis points are not good, okay they call that tailing and just one basis points tail isn't good when you get three, that is very much not good. none of the metrics were very stellar. the one that really shot out was 21.7% for dealers. 12% is the ten-auction average takedown the more dealers take, the less investors take and i think if you look at these charts, pretty m

for my next book and remember we all heard that it was all spontaneous because this guy named rick santelli gave a rant on tv. everyone's like, oh, i agree, let's have protests. it took this guy writing for his own publication and publishing it and all places that of playboy and playboy dot com. this guy named yasha levine to discover that in fact santelli is speech coordinated by a bunch of koch brothers, front groups. and the reason he thought to think about this and look into it even as the rest of the journalists for another two years called it spontaneous and pretended his journalism didn't even exist. was that what was happening basically this guy said something on tv and suddenly next there's this whole infrastructure of protest over the country was that it reminded him of what he'd seen under putin. so about your experience as a scholar of uzbekistan, we just we didn't we don't even you know, we're americans know god invented war to teach us geography. right. i'll just say, you know when i started to get my ph.d. in 2006 studying uzbek a stance politics. i absolutely knew that i was

. >> let's bring in another voice here rick santelli. hold on, randy, we're going to expand this until we hit the octobox. that's tv inflation. somebody got in my ear and said you don't believe the market is reacting necessarily to what he said as much maybe what they don't believe. >> yeah, no, not necessarily i 100% think the market is not listening or on the same track with what many fed officials think inflation's going to do or rates are going to peak and 20 minutes before the speech began at 1:30 eastern, i know row read the blast i sent out every trader i talked to pretty much uniformly agreed they were going to wait right until his text was released and then they were most likely going to reverse the trends of the day. they just don't see the future in the same way and they look at much of what the chairman is saying as kind of covering his butt in the future that inflation ends up moving lower, he thinks it looks fine higher, it looks fine, but that's not the way traders think. trades are in it for the money and the money is if

on all the major averages we also have some economic data just crossing the tape let's get to rick santellit. >> thanks, david leading economic indicators from the conference board expected to be down 0.4 of 1%. they double delivered down 0.8 of 1%. that is the weakest month over month read since april of 2020 we've only had one positive number the entire year, and that was february, up 0.8 that means we've gone eight months without a positive read that's historic. you have to go back to 2008 to find a similar set of circumstances. also out, leading economic indicators along with existing home sales for the month of october. for existing home sales, we turn to diana olick diana? >> well, rick, those home sales in october fell 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.43 million units that's slightly better than the street was looking for but sales were down 28.4% year over year that's the slowest sales pace since the end of 2011, with the exception of the brief slowdown at the start of the pandemic despite the slowdown, supply is falling. there were 1.22 million homes for sale, dow

could change gradually, you would expect to change gradually or quickly i bring that up because rick santelliison he talked about all the gridlock with the supply chain, all the orders, inventory orders put in my companies now we see aspects of the supply chain, at least from a transportation standpoint ease, and inventory buildups it sort of reversed itself and reversed itself quickly. can we see something similar play out in labor? >> well, it's certainly a possibility. that's why every economist focuses on, you know, measures such as initial jobless claims, very high frequency indicator, and in a below trend growth environment, you do worry about, you know, something breaking having said that, i think there's still a good amount of support for keeping growth positive one factor i'd really highlight is really disposable household income was weak earlier in 2022 because of the fiscal adjustment and the big runup in headline inflation. real disposable income is growing. i think that's going to offset some tightening and financial conditions we've seen. and, again, in our baseline forecast, ke

retail sales, industrial production, targeted lows and now some fresh data crossing the tape with rick santelliness inventory through month of september expected to be up half 1%, darn close up .4% here's the issue, up .4%, is the smallest month over month build on this inventory number since april of last year since april of '21 when it was minus 110. that gives you the expansion we have experienced in the inventory sector we have the housing market index for november out also and for that we head to diana o'lick >> sentiment dropped again the 11th straight monthly drop since june of 2012 anything bel0 issidered negati ofast yearat 83 in nber hi interest rates are mo than twice whatt waed e start of this year despite a bacst week. 59of bers rt hing to use cent, a er share than the last few mont rrent sales condns f x points to 39 ctat in the next six to 20.ed 4 points, andbuyer tras sentimfelloss nation but rdesin the south whe me bing is usually mt acti th home buildersayin 're up against highestfor just . > we 30 tes into the trg sen. we're starting with cruise line. thosares down big after

santelli tracking the action in chicago. hey, ricku look at maturities today, they're the only ones in the red meaning that their prices are lower, their yields are higher we're talking two year and three year and even those numbers are now less than one basis point. the rest of the curves in the green meaning higher prices, lower yields and the reason that's so interesting is the fed keeps pushing back at investors. look at the two-year chart you can see, there is an upward trend there, but still under control. when compared to two weeks of ten, you can see, we haven't traded -- two or higher. we continue to monitor through twos to tens it's currently trading minus 72. should it close there, it would be another fresh 41-year inverted close and finally the dollar index many believe it's turned and that the highs are in for the year hard to argue, but nonetheless, they had a huge bounce off their three-month low on the 16th. as you see on this would be week chart, they're heading higher. one of the reasons is because the euro is headin