rick santelli joins us live from chicago. >> what a wild day let's start at the beginning, 8:30 eastern when everybody was looking at the second look of fourth quarter gdp, a first look, second look, third look. each time more data comes in it gets fine tuned. look at the price index, originally 3.5 first look. revised up to 3.9. but it follows a final read in the third quarter of 4.4 core pce, 3.9 revised to 4.3 but it follows a final read of 4.7. you see what i'm saying? the revisions or what it actually follows, look at the charts, ten year at 8:30 eastern you made the high yield, just missed 4% and it's moving lower since. notes over bonds, this spread has been bucking the trend a lot of spreads have become less inverted, but the knob is the most inverted since december it's inverted, it gives you special information, a favorite of mine. it picks up cyclical treastream. overlay the dow jones on top of it, if we go more negative the stock market goes lower. pay attention to the knob. tyler, back to you >> when rick wags hi

. >>> let's get to rick santelli for our bond report. >> well, tyler, we had a very nasty 30-year bond option. i gave it a d-minus in terms of grade for demand two-year note, skyrocketing and steepening its ascent higher after 1:00 eastern that played negatively to the charts you showed for the nasdaq and the other equity indices if you look at the 30-year, the antagonist in this case, you can clearly see how it moved higher. it ignited the entire long end of the treasury curve, yields to go higher, it took away some of the inversions 2s versus 10s on its way to minus 87 and has reversed, hovering around minus 82 any close of 82.5 basis points or more negative will be a fresh for decade inversion fed fund futures, the fulcrum from june, july, august, now september. the further out it goes, the more fed it is bringing and the way the markets are pushing these things, so right now you could see all the prices going down, every month until you reach september and stop going down let's use that chart this is year to date it is hovering at 94

fed is out with consumer expectations survey ahead of tomorrow's crucial cpi report rick santelli with some of the highlights rick >> yes, jon. as we're talking about the highlights, let's throw a ten-year chart up there. rates have ticked up just a little bit, as you see on that interday chart most of the report is pretty good news, especially in front of tomorrow's cpi. the january read, the big headline is that inflation for one year moved from 5% to 4.95%. now, that doesn't seem like a huge change, but it's still the lowest level since july of '21 if we go through the entire report, spending down 0.2. what's notable about spending down 0.2%, it's at the lowest level, 5.0%, since early '22 income dropped 1.3%, jon that is the biggest drop since recordkeeping goes back to 2013. and it's left 3.3% we want to pay particularly close attention, i pointed out the one-year inflation target of 4.95%. the three-year is 2.7%, ticking down 0.2%. five-year is the only metric that ticked higher, up 0.1% to 2.5% gas, food and education remain historically high, according to the report good news,

rick santelli is standing by rick, what is going on with you?, yields, we've been monitoring technicals since the jobs report. once we had the jobs report everything changed technical note yields major resistance and 380 look at the two-year for the week it is up over 20 basis points and it was instantly responsive after the jobs report. if you look at the vix it didn't wake up until yesterday. matter of fact, if you look at november 1st both of them together, the yields gave you an early warning sign on the vix moving higher. to that end paul aaronson. can you talk >> sure, rick. >> paul, we're basically looking at the vix it was rather sleepy after the big jobs report last friday. it didn't really wake up two-year note yields and san bernardino conflict of treasury popped immediately why the lag and how are we looking at next week's inflation data >> i think we are seeing the markets finally saying it knows what it doesn't know after the big jobs number gave the fed a lot more leeway in how they're going to take this rate path, and over the co

rick santelli. >> thank you >> let's talk a little bit more about the markets.t seeing potential for a rotation back to high quality, reasonable growth stocks let's bring in marianne montagne, portfolio manager with gradient investments marianne, great to have you with us can stocks make forward progress with rates rising the way they have been over the past month or so >> yeah. i think there's certain stocks we're always stock pickers there's certain ones that can do well, even if a two-year rate is heading higher a few of them -- they're durable growth stories one that we hold in both our core growth and value portfolio strategies is united health care this is a health care insurer. we think we can get as much as a 25% increase in the value, total return, that is, over the next 12 to 18 months. and part of the reason is because their on tptum growth wc is health care technology direct to the consumer, is now about 50% of their earnings. it's a fast-growing part of their business and they've been beating revenue and earnings estimates quarter after quarter. we

. >>> let's get to rick santelli for the pmis. >> good morning.i, the manufacturing pmi, these are preliminary february numbers, 47.8, a bit better than expected that's one, two, three, fourth sub 50 in a row, 47.8 actually is the best streak going back to october of last year now, if we look at the services side, expecting a number right around 47 and change, we popped above 50 so we stop the run at seven of sub 50s, 50.5. that's the best level going back to june of last year finally, the s&p global composite pmi of 47.5 is what we're expecting. once again we stop at seven on sub 50, we pop over 50 50.2 on the compospocomposite. interest rates have ticked up a bit on that, as they should. it's better for the economy. maybe it brings the fed a bit closer as we watch the stock market tick down as well, and "squawk on the street" will return after a short break >>> dow down almost 400 to start this holiday shortened week. you have all 30 components in the red, all s&p sectors in the red, and elevated vix as we're back to 22.5 take a short break ande

. >>> welcome back to "squawk on the street," rick santelli here, live at cme hq with the first of ay of breaking news today. s&p global, manufacturing pmi, january final, which means 6.8 mid month read gets tossed, gets replaced with 0.1 better 46.9 that is actually the best read going back to, well, november, when it was 47.7, and in between there, december at 46.2 is the weakest since may of 2020. so, we aren't exactly bouncing very much. we haven't been above 50 since october, so there's the news, and of course, we have more isms to come. we had adp at 106,000. that was the weakest in two years. "squawk on the street" will tu aer srtre rernft aho bak new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. (woman 1) i just switched to verizon business unlimited. it's just right for my little business. whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. unlimited premium data. un

rick santelli.course, just one piece of the macro picture today that's in focus for investors. goldman sachs david solomon on "squawk" talked about inflation, and it being stickier. take a listen. >> i think the general consensus is inflation is going to be stickier when i say stickier, harder to move from where it is now, down to 3% let's say. i think we're in a place where there's a little bit more optimism about muddling through, but i think inflation is going to be sticky and hard and has to be prepared for a bumpy 12 to 18 to 24 months. >> whether that's case-shiller with deet sell rags in home prices, you saw chicago pmi and conference board now the market will welcome numbers directionally soft, sara. >> i think the consumer confidence number is important it was our first read for february and it was weaker, which is a good thing. i mean it's not a good thing for consumers to have less confidence, but the market has been rattled by all this good economic data we've seen that has been the stor

probably bracing for a hawkish surprise let's bring back our panel, along with bob pisani and rick santelli rick, what are your thoughts >> reporter: we do see two-year notes spike. we saw tens spike. they're coming down a bit. the dow jones industrial average dropped. after listening to steve's highlights of what the fed has in the statement, it seems to me the guardians of the u.s. economy, the federal reserve, aren't going to be happy until they give birth to a recession we've seen economic contractions like pmis and i see sections slowing, but we have a strong labor market labor is a pain the fed doesn't want to occur. they want to induce weak labor pains and to do that they will keep higher for longer no matter how you slice this, i do believe the markets are going to continue to look beyond the rhetoric, look beyond trying to give birth to a recession and the cleansing breath it may need for pricing after we've gone through covid and all those issues in the end, it certainly seems to me like all the momentum in pricing has reversed, and the only thing left is for the fed not to blink

yields rising today after that strong retail sales report 15-year high in fact on a two year rick santelli has the latest rick >> yes let's look at this 462, 10 basis points away from its highest close of the cycle and actually going all the way back to '07 in november. 472. ten basis points away. look at the ten year it's high in october of '23, over 40 basis points above where we're trading's near 4.25. why do i bring that up because as aggressive as ten-year notes have been, high evidence yield now at 23 the fact they haven't been able to cross larger extremes is meaningful especially looking at the spreads. 2s to 10s. a bounce, still within striking distance of four decades inversion, but duelling yield curves the real recession spread, three months to tens, least diverted in nearly six weeks. tyler, back to you. >> thank you. >>> news now out of washington affecting some of the biggest tech companies in the world, eamon javers has this from our d.c. bureau. >> hi, eamon. >> high ya, tyler. house judiciary fired off a state of subpoenas to biggest tech companies in the world demanding

now industrial data, let's get to rick santelli rick >> wholesale trade, a december final if we look was up one tenth of one percent there was something unique because that was the smallest amount of inventory change going back to july of 2020 and it remains now at up one tenth of one percent if we look at the trade sale side of the equation, that's december, there was no mid month read, that is zero, goose egg, unchanged. expecting a number with a minus sign although you look at the revision of last month you have your minus sign, we doubled up that six tenths build for november it ends up at minus 1.4% and that is noteworthy because minus 1.4% of course takes you back to july when it was minus 1.5 and that was the lowest since the all-time low in april of 2020, minus 17. so these numbers are moving lower. it makes sense if you're not selling the inventory and you had an inventory overhang earlier in the year it makes sense but has a prerecessionary whiff to it. 35 billion intends to be auctioned off at 1:00 eastern today. back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you. >>> here are three

a lot going on in bonds so we're going to begin with rick santelli in chicago. >> yes the only maturity right now that has a lower or higher price and a lower yield than yesterday are 30-year bonds. all maturities are drifting lower in yields. the last day of the month look at month to date ii two-year month to date, 420, up 60 basis points for the month. 10s at 3.51 up 40 basis points as you see and when was the last time 10s closed at 4% or higher i can tell you that day is easy, november 9th that was 112 days ago, 72 trading days ago, it's been a while. and if you look at europe, pretty much the same scenario, actually maybe leaving us higher in rates earlier in the session. bund yields at 37 basis points up on the month. they settle in january 228 gilts, 3.33, up 50 basis points. it's been a big month in the u.s. for rates but really been a big month for the world in terms of rates back to you. >> great point thank you. >>> turn to bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. bob, it's the dow in the red and everyone else positive or is that still the case? >>

turn to the bond market yields are rising, the ten-year to its highest level of the year wwe star rick santelli rick. >> hey, tyler. it's very fascinating. write now a ten-year note is down about four basis points on the day, hovering at 3.82 which means it's only up 8 basis points on the week it was up 14 to 15 earlier that's the point since it's down from yesterday's yields, yesterday yield's were the highest yield close since december 30th, we're in the right zip code for the highest yields of the year but we've turned down a bit. the canary in the coal mine was two-year yields, missing the close by 1 basis point which was 4.71 high today, 4.72 is the key close. that backed up everything. the two-year is closed, but the ten-years, their october high was 4.24 we're still a ways away from that there's still many that believe, if you open the chart up back to 2008 that the higher we made in october, the highest since 2008 is going to remain there which means the yield curve will remain inverted. while we talk about rates, maybe we should pay attention to the dollar index, closing at a six-week

is paying attention to bonds these days for a change bob, thank you very much >>> let's go to rick santelli in chicago. yields are falling rick >> yes you know what, these high yields are deflg capturing many investors' imaginations. be careful whether in a fund or hold a security, if you're holding a 2-year and happy with the rates, you might have to hold it to maturity should there be change to rate structure and therein lies the rub you need to be happy with the return 2-year by the way is the star for me today as well let's look at a 2-year over two days how it just flew on friday friday was a huge day if you're a technician if you go to the charts longer term, you can clearly see that last fall we had a high yield close for 2s that was 4. 725 friday was the day we finally closed above it, and as you look at the spread between 2s and 10s over a couple of weeks, you can see that it had been less inverted now all of a sudden, 2-year on friday, changed that even though today, 2s and 10s are about equal distance so there's not a lot of curve implications, we're still close to a fresh four d

rick santelli has more >> december reads, it's two months in arrears for business inventories and if expected, expected up three tenths, three tenths was delivered. how does that figure in? october was two tenths and in the rear view mirror november was four tenths, right in the middle interest rates have been tame this morning thus far, especially considering strong retail sales, at least on a seasonably adjusted basis. we have another number out our february read on national association of home builders, housing sentiment index, and for that we head east to diana o' l lick >> ohome builder rose for the second straight month. it had been as low as 31 two months ago this is the biggest monthly increase in sentiment since june of 2013. of course sentiment was 81 in february of last year when mortgage rates were lower but rates are now lower than last fall some of the index's three components, sales conditions rose to 46 sales expectations in six months, increased to 48. that's a big one almost positive and buyer traffic rose to 29 additional signs that the housing market is settling,

. >> kristina, thank you let's get to the bond market reaction to this morning's cpi report rick santelliat do you make of it, rick >> i found it to be pretty much as expected. we didn't match expectation buzz in the end it's never about expectations it's about history. it's about what's in the rearview mirror. and when you consider two-year notes at the high water mark in november, 4.72, still about ten basis points away. and if you look at what's going on with ten-year note yields you can clearly see yes, we've moved up yes, we're getting closer and closer to the magic resistance level we were earlier at 4.80 but that's still a long way from 4.25 which is the high water mark and finally fnd fed fund futures. the fulcrum shifted. today if you look at prices go down p stops at august, not september. august is making a new low for the contract it's going to make a new low close. that brings more fed and for that i think we need to find a trader. hey, dave. do you have a minute lirngs dave, what today but with respect to how cpi played into the market >> cpi big number. people were panickin

report tomorrow could spur even bigger moves unless expectations are already too high let's get to rick santelli out in chicago rick, how does this trade look to you today >> it certainly looks as though the markets are starting to get a little more friendly to the notion of tomorrow's inflation gauge as you pointed out in equities right now two year, three year and five year yields are the only yields up on the session. we've seen sevens, tens, 20s and 30s ease back. let's start with the two year note should it close at current levels it would be the highest yield close since 21st of november even though that is correct, it's current level of 4.54 we're still clearly 20 basis below its high cycle yield close which was a couple weeks before that at 4.72 if you look at a ten year since the last cpi meeting you can see that it went sideways until the big jobs report that changed everything and, yes, we hit 3.75 today. as kelly pointed out, higher than yesterday's high yield, but it has eased off a bit dollar index since the last january 12th release of cpi you can see how jobs report there also se

carl, morgan back to you >>> rick santelli. thank you. we're 30 minutes into the trading session.with honeywell under pressure after mixed results to supply chain challenges and labor shortages and offering first quarter guidance below street estimates, full-year sales were -- are expected to be between 36 and $37 billion the dow component expecting strong growth in aerospace and energy shares are down 2% right now to consumer stocks, canada goose and estee lauder in the red, thanks parts to covid disruptions in canada. estee lauder moving towards the flat line about half a percent keep an eye on merck sliding as the post outlook clouding a q4 earnings beat. a new studio out overnight linking merck's covid drug to new virus mutations, merck surprisingly, disputing those claims, but it is a steep drop in those covid antiviral pill sales weighing on the outlook for the stock down 1%. let's get to the morning's biggest mv mover, shall we meta the facebook and instagram parent reporting a revenue beat and $40 billion stock buyback. its first quarter forecast suggesting revenue could r

. >> let's get to rick santelli. we're nearly at levels for the two-year we haven't been at since 2007 how is demand? rick, how did it go? >> reporter: you know what it was a bit below average, i gave it a c minus, charlie minus. but the yield at the dutch auction, 6.473 the metrics were all near average. a couple stuck out in my mind. indirect bidders, those are foreign entities, we like to pay attention to those at a time when we're in qt and looking to see what foreign interests are going to continue to buy, and they are still buying. the other one that caught my attention was dealer activity. down 15% option is closer to 20 that was the lowest percentage since april of last year, not that long ago. but it does underscore, on a day where we traded 4.72% intraday, which equals the how yield clause from november, that kelly alluded to at 4.72%. we want to continue to monitor that, because it could be the first maturity that will take out its fall high-yield close at a time where everything is flashing red that concer

rick santelli here with some of the last breaking news of the week in the form of february preliminary66.4 that's the best since january of last year. if we look at current conditions, 72.6 best since december of '21 that's a pretty strong number there and what lies ahead expectations, 62.3 that is the only metric thus far that came in below expectations and below our last look. and 62.3 actually is -- isn't a bad number keep in mind, it's still relatively close, 62.7 our last look in the rearview mirror january '22. the money numbers, one-year inflation hotter than expected, 4.2% this is going to push rates up a little bit we're expecting the number closer to 4% in the rearview mirror, 3.9% 4.2 takes us to some of the highest levels going back, again, towards december of last year when it was 4.4 we breached that with our january number going under 4%. if you recall, that made interest rates move down a bit and finally 5 to 10-year inflation this pretty much has hunkered down in the 2.9 zone. we've had many 2.9s over the last six months. unchanged from last month. exactly as expected

morgan, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you. >>> we are 30 minutes into the trading session.farm and construction equipment maker deere in the green after quarterly profit more than doubled as higher prices and strong demand boosted sales by nearly a third see the shares are up more than 6% right now redfin, recouping all of its premarket losses after revenues fell 25% year over year amid what the company calls a spooked market for housing actually you can see the shares are back down 2.5% auto nation heading higher reporting record profits, beating estimates thanks to strength in new vehicle sales, while tee plademand for used cas slumped those shares up 8.5%. >>> hawkish commentary rolls in from the fed following this week's hotter than expected inflation data steve liesman joins us to try to wrap it all up a lot of data points we've gotten. >> great week, david, if you're following these markets. treasury yields on the rise as rick said in the wake of hotter than expected wholesale prices, low jobless claims and hawkish talk from two fed officials supporting they could sup

. >> rick santelli in the bits love that. thank you. >>> oil trading about to close for the day.than 2% for the day. let's bring in stevens for more. >> another losing week for commodities. more aggressive action from the federal reserve could lead to curtailment. eu leaders have agreed to a price cap on russian petroleum products that goes into effect on sunday and is meant to limit russia's revenue without creating enormous disruption in global energy markets turning to nat gas, seven straight week of losses, at its lowest level since december 2020 just looking at henry hub doesn't tell the whole story because california, more than five times the average we're seeing on henry hub. that's because of a confluence of factors, including colder temperatures than expected in california as well as pipeline issues, the el paso pipeline that carries gas from the perm yen basin to southern california still offline. so, higher prices for californians >> quick question on china how is the oil market factoring in the reopening of china? or is it >> i think the issue with that is that it was

thank you, my friend rick santelli. >>> up next, what's bothering goldman's ceo, david solomon tethlto yo u afr is (vo) give your business an advantage right now, with nationwide 5g from t-mobile for business. unlock new insights and efficiency, with leading ultra-capacity 5g coverage. t-mobile for business has 5g that's ready right now. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. doors can take us to new adventures and long-term goals. your dedicated fidelity advisor can help you open those doors. by helping you create a comprehensive wealth plan, with the right balance of risk and reward. doors were meant to be opened. >>> welcome back, everybody, time for another story catching our eye this hour. goldman-sachs ceo david solomon telling

rick santelli has that. >> thank you our january read on new home sales expected around 620,000.seasonally adjusted annualized units, the best level since march of '22, which puts it up over 7% for the month. university of michigan, sentiment, february final read, 70.4, and that -- excuse me, 70 - 67.0 that replaces 66.4 on current conditions 70.7, that replaces 72.6 and on expectations what lies ahead, 62.3 turns into 64.7 we could see the headline and expectations bested the mid-month read, but we do notice that the current conditions, maybe the most important issue, is a little bit lower. now for the money numbers, one-year inflation comes in at 4.1% high watermark here was in march of last year at 5.4, so making progress unlike the personal income and consumption numbers inflation gauges, this one is sequentially lower than last look which was 4.2, and that was the mid-month read finally the 5 to 10-year inflation came in at 2.9 mid-month, remains at 2.9. high watermark was a split decision, june and january of last year was 3.2, the highest since 2011 back to you. >> not doi

rick santelli live at cme hq with the last breaking news of a wild week.january release of the ism services trifecta of information. first of all, the index, 55.2. 55.2 that's pretty good 55.2 is actually the best since september of last year now let's look at the services prices paid. 67.8 67.8 that is the lightest level since january of last year remember, prices paid going down, if you want inflation to go down, well they go hand in hand that's a good thing. we had a lot of employment data this week. the services employment data, 55 right on the expansion-contraction line 50.6 was our last read in november december was under 50. at 49.4. so at least we move back to that marginal expansion contraction line on the services new orders, 60.4 60.4 that's off of a 45.2 that is the best read. well 60.4 equalled august last year to find a higher read go back to january of last year this data is definitely a bit better than expected on the service side if you're looking at the fed and implications for the market, it may mean that you see a bit of a pop in rates,

. >> i want to bring in a counterpart here, talking about jobs data versus yield curve rick santelli covers bonds for a living and has the results of the 30-year. how did it go over >> exactly the opposite of yesterday's ten-year i give this auction a d minus. did not go well. let's go through the internals 21 million, 30-year bonds. the market was trading 3.654 right before 1:00 eastern. the yield, though, was 3.686 it tailed over three basis points higher yield, lower price. you don't want to sell into lower price structure. every metric was weaker than average. one that really stuck out, other than direct bidders, slightly higher, but one that stuck out, we always like to talk about the buffet table when you have an auction. that's the dealers they take the leftovers, and in this case, leftovers were just shy of 16% auction average is 10% that was the highest take by dealers since april of last year in the end, this auction did not go well. a lot of that has to do with the notion that many traders are starting to rethink how much time we will spend with rates firming up, especiall

let's ge to rick santelli in chicago to see what the bond traders are saying hey, rick. >> hi, tylerd if you look at a two-year note right now even though yields moved up just a bit since the minutes were released we're still at a double top meaning we've settled at 4.72 1/2 yesterday, we settle at 4.72 1/2 in october, november and that double top is resistance and if you look at ten years we're at 3.42 when the fed raised 25 base' points at the meeting we just read the minutes to really climbed since then. and the vix has dropped since the minutes were released. that's significant why? because it was at a seven-week high prior that's where it closed yesterday. dave, you have a quick second here >> yeah, what's up >> we had the minutes today. he didn't see any big changes. what did you see in the marketplace? >> not very much so. the zero day vol, that's a big deal right now everything expiring today. >> zero day -- >> zero day expiration, that's a big deal right now >> eph day you have options go off. >> correct and the ones expiring today at 3:00, everything -- yes. >> you were tel

let's go to rick santelli to check the bond market. >> everybody is talking about today's producer pricethe market is differentiating today look at the two year note yields we shot up close to what is currently the high yield close and that level is 47 2 but 467 and we eased back? why? the year over year, when you look at 6%, it's almost half of the high water mark from march of last year at 11.7 that was headline year over year 5.4 almost half of 9.7, that was the high water mark. you get what i'm saying and the market is paying attention to that look at one week of ten year note yields no doubt that the direction is higher in yields, that's almost a 45 degree line higher been that way since the strong jobs report it seems as though inflation is more important than weakness in the economy as the fed keeps tightening twos to tens, now at 76 basis points, it was over 90 intraday. so much less inverted. three month versus tens, much less inverted. this is something to pay close attention to finally, despite ppi month over month, look at fed fund futures for august this is the fulcrum, the

let's get it over to rick santelli rick >> yes, the january read on the consumer price index, headlinehat minus 1/10 originally released for december was modified a week ago with benchmark revisions up 1/10 of a percent. so this was expected now we strip out the all-important food and energy, also up exactly the expected amount of up 0.4%. now, the big numbers cpi year over year, and this number has been going down it is 6.4% 6.4% this follows 5.7 and it is the fourth number in a row in this series to move lower and if we look at the year over year core, it is 5.5, higher than 5.6, but sequential lower than 5.7 in the rearview mirror, extending the runt of 7 from the -- excuse me, excuse me. on the core, this is four in a row at 5.6 6.4 headline is seven in a row down from 9.1% that was in june and that was the four-decade high now, here's the fly in the ointment, why rates are going up even though the year over year numbers are each 0one-tenth lowe than the rearview mirror, they are both a little bit higher than expectations. 6.4 was expected to be 6.2, 5.5 was expected to be 5.5 that

as we head to break, our road map for the rick santelli of the hour the ntsb has released its first reporte the new report for you >>> some $600 billion wiped off alibaba's market cap since it saw its highs in 2020. could today's earnings be signs of a turnaround? >> nvidia betting big on a.i. but when will it pay off more on those numbers with the analysts behind one ofhe ght rgs thiestaeton the street after the break. the first time you connected your website and your store was also the first time you realized... we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? [together] the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. godaddy. tools and support for every small business first. >>> let's get back into the move for nvidia the eighth weekly gain, the first time it's ever had that kind of a track record our next guest believes nvidia's long-term prospects are some of the best in the chip industry giving the increase in generational a.i. models joining us is piper sandler analyst kumar. good to have you let's start off, what surprised you from the call and

rick santelli is standing by rick, take it way. >> this data is a lot more complicated than the tax code 196,000, 196,000, that is a bit higher than expectations that's actually the highest level of initial claims since the very first week of the year when it was 206,000. if we look at continuing claims for the week of january 2nd, 1 million, 688,000, above expectations, above the slightly revised 1,650,000 in the rearview mirror and that actually is the highest level since christmas week, the third week of december of last year. as you look at interest rates, you can see that for the most part, they aren't responding to these numbers much, you can actually say yields are starting to slip a little bit as we hover right around 357, 358. preopening equities have lifted just a little bit off that number so the fact that it's a bit higher on continuing claims and even a smidge higher on initial might be considered good news if you're a fed watcher what a great conversation you guys are having about the tax code the behee myth monster created by congress that congress doesn't like, back to yo

rick santelli live at cme hq these are january preliminary, down 4.5%, that is the weakest mount-over-month020 strip off transportation, and it zooms up into positive territory. so we can see the culprit here, up 0.7, when you strip out transportation that's the best number going back to march of last year, up 0.8 for, and exaircraft, much better the change expected, that's for capital expenditures. finally, as we switch gears from order to shipments, up 1.1%, that's a powerful number, the best since october last year interest rates are hofrlg about where they were, 3.94 before the date was released. two-year notes are the only maturity on the treasury curve that's taken on you the post-covid yield close three years, about 13 basis points away. five years, 24 basis points away ten-year, 3.94, about 30 basis points away from the 4.24 high yield close back in october, and it hasn't closed at 4% or higher since november 9th it's one of the main reasons that many are questioning exactly what's going on with the inverted curve and how much damage may be caused to the economy by the federal reser

let's bring in tyler goodspeed, our own steve liesman is here this morning, along with rick santelli liesman, set it up for us. what are you expecting, thinking, watching for >> there's a lot of high marks out there in the 300,000 range because of some quirks, returning striking workers, offset by some -- by some weather issues that were out there. i'm going to be in the 250 range because i'm not buying all of goldman's upside which is based on some of the positive high frequency data out there but i'm buying some of it. >> betsy, where are you? >> this is when i get to remind you that the error on this is plus or minus 100. so i'll tell you that my ranges are going to come in somewhere between say 100 and 300, putting us around 200. steve is right there's a bunch of fluctuations going on in this month's report. so i think there's more uncertainty than normal. >> and what does mr. hoover say? >> i agree with betsy. i think there's a lot of uncertainty around this number in particular. but i've been taking the over for the past six months. i think i'm going to go with consensus here o

become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq >>> welcome back to "squawk on the street," rick santelliews of the week import prices and export prices for the month of january import prices, month over month expected to be down 1/10 we're down 2/10 of 1%. these numbers actually have been trending mostly higher, so this negative number does reverse that trend, and if you strip out petroleum, we do see the prices moving higher, expecting down 3/10, a 1/2% the other way we are up 2/10, and that's pretty good. as i said, it has been trending a bit higher everything else that we're going to see has been trending mostly lower, and that's any of the year over year or export prices. year over year import prices are up 8/10, bucking that trend to some extent. you'll see what i mean, in the rear view mirror, up 3%. it isn't as high as many expected on export prices, month over month, up 8/10, much better than we are looking and are 8/10 really does take us back a ways, before we were anywhere near the level. last time we could claim a positive number of that magnitude, going back to june of next

rick santelli here live on the floor -- i wish i was on the floor with some of the last breaking newsng a number up 1% up 0.6 that isn't bad considering it was up 0.2 until we get a revision that's the strongest level since october when it was up 0.8 if we look at the spending side, better than expected up 1.8 that is the best levelgoing al the way back to -- and this is pretty healthy, going back to march of '21 march of '21 when it was up 5.2% if you look at real personal spending, adjusted for pricing pressures, it's up 1.1%. exactly as expected. now the money numbers, on the personal consumption month over month and realize the high watermark was 1% going back to 1980, that was in june of '22. it is up 0.6 of 1% and the rearview mirror, it's up 0.2, up s0.6. if we look at year over year personal consumption, the deflator, it's up 5.4. the high watermark was 7%. that went back to '81. that was in june of '22. 5.4% in the rearview mirror we had 5% that becomes 5.3 5.4 is the highest since november when it was 5.5 core personal consumption expend year deflator month over month, up 0.

on that huge jump in meta in part, ten-year note yield, backing off a little bit downto 3.36% rick santellior the numbers. >> nonfarm productivity, these are fourth quarter preliminary numbers. hey, hey, hey, better than 3%. productivity is the special sauce for the u.s. economy so sad alan greenspan 3% is the best quarter going back to, well, the last quarter of 2021 when it was over 4% and year over year productivity is, of course, gaining a bit as well unit labor costs, a little less than expected. that should drop rates just a bit. we're expecting 1.5. they come in at 1.1% and that is the smallest level on a month over month change since march of '21 that's excellent news. if we look at initial claims, expecting 195,000. we bested that 183,000 and, of course, bad news, good news, bad news, good news, when it comes to anything on the labor market 183,000 is the lightest going all the way back to april, third week of april of '22 if we look at continuing claims, we're expecting 1.684 million, 1.655 million. 1.655000 that is a bit less than expected and, once again, that may be putting a l

santelli will have those numbers momentarily. hey, rick. >> yes, good morning, joe.ultiple times better, but still a minus sign in the rooer view mirror, 32 president 9 was the weakest since may of 2020. this is a nice reprieve. this would end up being the best number since november of last year when it actually was positive let's go to january retail sale. probably the other side of the equation to yesterday's inflation date, expecting a headline up 2% surprisingly it's better it's up 3% this is a good number considering four out of the last six months they've had negative signs in front of them up 3% is the strongest number we've had since october, which was the last time we had a positive number, which was one point on if you strip out autos, minus autos also negative four out of the last six months. expecting 0.9% up 2.3%. that is the strongest read boy, going all the way back to march of '21 march of '21 a very good number if we strip out autos and gas, also expected up 0.9% it was up 2.6% finally the control group used for other economic data points up the econ