the mortgage rate went to 7.1% rick santelli joining us from chicago.u remember that 2-year note yields have been comping off and on 3-yore notes are close to taking off the fall high yield cycle flows. if you look at -- the further down the curve you go, the further away from this, the fall high yields. and that's significant, especially considering what happens today. today you have under 200,000, continuing claims rolling close above 1.7 million, only puts it above 1.7 million twice since february of last year. jim, do you have a minute? >> absolutely. what's up, rick? >> jim, yesterday of course we saw volatility tick up a bit we saw claims on the low side today. was there any correlation there? >> yeah. look, claims are -- unemployment is the lowest it's been in almost 50 years. we really think this is going t be sticking for some time. vostic has been trying to talk up the rates in the curve, and we believe that's going to continue vostic put a little bit of a damper on that today >> he did put a bit of a damper on it. but it seems like it's about

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, and we have coast-to-coast coverage and deirdre bosa with the fallout in silicon valley, and rick santellitracking the crazy moves for us and steve liesman has what the market thinks of the fed now. deirdre, let's start with you. >> a collective area, and i've been hearing from founders and will they be able to make bills this week and investors that have been scrambling all weekend to support portfolio companies over the longer term, though, the picture is less clear and it's likely to be more challenging for the tech community. start-ups are likely to face more difficult financing landscape. silicon valley bank occupied a very unique place here and in tech overall providing services, products and flexibility and even just accounts for early-stage companies could not or would not serve many investors acknowledge that the bank, yes, managed its risk terribly and they say its value to the tech ecosystem was unsurpassed. that backdrop could hit start-up valuations further and push some of the biggest fund managers to mark down their private books sooner than they would like to jeffrey's righ

. >> steve, let me bring in rick santelli. rick, how did it go? >> charlie minus, c minus is the grade. let's go through it, kelly. it was $12 billion, reopened 20. technically, it was -- all the metrics were roughly in line. one on the weak side, that was indirect at 67%. that was the lightest since october of last year. and direct bidders like mutual funds, pension funds at 21.1 was the best since march of last year. but it all comes out, about a third of a basis point and some of the other metrics could have been a bit better. i do think, with the fed meeting tomorrow, it doesn't surprise me that this was a middle auction. you don't see much movement, which goes along with the idea that if you look at the year-to-date real quick, we didn't take out the fall high yield close. we only did that in 2s and 3s, and with regard to what the fed may or may not do, it seems as though the market has 25 priced in, whether that's right or wrong, it almost doesn't make any difference at this point. back to you. >> except it makes all the difference. i know w

. >>> rick santelli out of chicago. at least for today, yields are falling. e assets rick >> yes we see stocks in the green we see treasuries in the green, and that really comes at a time where many at the fed are only seeing red markets don't seem to agree. look at the two day of three year why did i pick three year? a good reason. because today and yesterday both have intraday highs higher than 4.65%, real important. open the chart up to october what you see is the cycle high yield close going back to october 20th it was right around 465. why is that key? well, because two years, the only one taking out fall highs at a time where every piece of guidance from the fed is higher rates. the market is bucking that trend and to some extent inverted curve. look what's going on in fed fund futures this october fulcrum, price going down, start going up, basically going to close on its contract lows close to that, which means pricing in most it has in the entire kriscycle. finally all about jobs, jobs, jobs friday next week. traders talking about it year-to-date chart

now let's get to rick santelli in chicago. >> yesterday's fed meeting had so many moving parts. we had janet yellen going in one direction after the market somewhat appreciated what the fed had done in terms that it could be the last hike. but if you look at the 2-year and 10-year, one thing should dramatically win out. if you look at a chart going back to september, you could clearly see that they are now very close to a very similar formation. we hover near the lowest yields on a closing basis since september. what that has done, two years have led the race down in yields and made the 3-month to 10-year spread near the most inverted back into the '80s, the new recession spread. it's four basis points away, minus 125, minus 129 is the bogey from january. if you look at what's going on overseas, bund yields and 10-year u.s. yields are getting closer together. as you see on this chart, they're near the closest they have been going all the way back to mid-2020. and this is very key, especially considering our fed led the way. finally if you zoom, you can see even though bund yield

let's get to rick santelli >> yes, david, it industrial production for the month of february expectedo be up, comes in unchanged what's interesting is last month was unchanged as well, but it was revised up 0.3%, which means last month now becomes the highest level since july of last year, and we've dropped back down to zero the rate of change here isn't a positive, and utilization backs that notion up expected 78.4. we get 78.0, which has dubious honor of being the lowest level of utilization since september of '21 w,on tchhano d'tou tt remote "squawk on the street" will return after a short break i screwed up. mhm. i got us t-mobile home internet. now cell phone users have priority over us. and your marriage survived that? you can almost feel the drag when people walk by with their phones. oh i can't hear you... you're froze-- ladies, please! you put it on airplane mode when you pass our house. i was trying to work. we're workin' it too. yeah! work it girl! woo! i want to hear you say it out loud. well, i could switch us to xfinity. those smiles. that's why i do what i do. that and

voice of the people. >> yu p. >> rick santelli, thank you, my friend. >> let's go live to californiawhere depositors right now are trying to get their money. is that right? >> yes, they are, kelly. we've been here since early this morning since before banks open. silicon valley bank customers lined up to make sure they can get their money. there's 35 to 40 people out here right now. there's representatives from the fdic, from the bank answering questions, reassuring customers that their money is safe we're seeing, of course, a lot more happier people here today than we saw on friday and from the folks that we've been talking, to the founders say that their number one concern over the weekend was making payroll this week so that announcement from the government is very good for them, and they want to wait and see what happens next we spoke to one guy at santa clara headquarters who is trying to move his money from silicon valley bank to another he was lined up from 2:00 a.m. this morning. >> we hope to have the money as close as it can be to somewhere where we feel a lot safer about i

rick santelli. >>> more on the potential fallout with the founder and ceo of xonte data. are we witnessing a banking crisis unfold here in the united states or in europe? >> so, it started with one bank and then two banks and now we have three i think it is very important to think about what type of bank it is we're looking at. we had regional banks in the u.s., that's where we had the two u.s. examples. the news today is that around one of the biggest global investment banks, so in a total different category of banking institution here, right? in order to contain this, we need to have it not spread, right? so we need to watch extremely carefully whether this is something that is contaminating all the big investment banks, right? so we're watching it on the screen, right, big french banks down 10%, 12% today at one point. that's not what you want to see. if you look at what is going on in credit, it was a little less dramatic we had just on the cusp of this, looking into the more systemic crisis, right? that's why people are getting memories from 2008 today and that's wha

. >>> let's bring in rick santelli. nice to see you. we were talking about the extraordinary volatility, particularly in the two-year? >> yeah, it is really remarkable. last week in the two-year, you were off 70 basis points plus. let's look at a couple of weeks at two-year. you see the chart there, we've come from above 5%, and here we sit. and today, look at the right side of that graph. it just looks like a little nib. but we are up 20 basis points today. yes. liquidity is an issue, but i have to tell you, it might take a lot of 30 seconds to move a big order, but they're getting filled. it just covers a lot of ground to get the order filled. and if you look at what's going on overseas, that's boons versus tens. you can see whether it's yield, boons, we're all basically trading the same formation. and all the long data treasuries are below their extremes from last fall. and that, to me, is -- and i've said it a thousand times, i'll say it a thousand times more, that is important to pay attention to. i don't care how good the charts l

all right guys, we're going to have some breaking news on services pmi and for that, we'll go to rick santelliets of service sector pmis. this is the first from s&p global, and it's a feb final, which means we take the mid-month read and toss it, and in this instance, the mid-month reads were quite important they reversed a seven-month stretch of under 50 in contraction, but they remain above 50 50.6 on the services pmi replaces 50.5, and as i referenced, we haven't been above 50 since june of last year, which is where we comp to. same could be said for the composite. 50.1 the only difference is that the mid-month read was 0.1 higher on the composite. as i said, both the best since june of last year, and we'll have more at the top of the hour, but don't touch that remote "squawk on the street" will return after a short break the cloud makes it possible to expand your infrastructure. but to make it powerful enough to connect your data wherever it is, you need cdw and netapp. cdw experts will work with you to understand your needs, then customize a netapp cloud services solution to integrate dat

rick santelli.ruction spending and ism manufacturing let's start there, headline number been down under 53 months in a row, will it be four? yes, it is 47.7 is the headline 47.7 would comp in to our most recent month, which was 47.4 just to see how it dove tails in 51.3 on prices paid, that reverses four under 50s in a row, which is very good news 51.3 is the best in september of last year. employment 49.1. 49.1 that's the first month under 50 since november when we were at 48.9 49.1, obviously, a bit higher than that. and finally on the new order side we have five under 50, this now makes it six 47.0 for new orders. 47.0 fits in nicely with 42.5 to give you some context there. and finally, let's go back to construction spending, shall we? that's a january number, the ism were february numbers. for this expecting up two tenths, not happening. a negative number down one-tenth of 1% with a big revision from december to now minus seven-tenths and that would be the worst going back to august of last yea

february cpi it to get right over to rick santelli rick >> yes of course, we are expecting our februaryd to be up 4/10 delivers, exactly up 4/10, high water mark was up in june of '22, the highest since 2005 strip out the all-important food and energy, up half of one percent. this is one-tenth hotter than we were looking for and one-tenth hotter than the rearview mirror. high water mark here up 8/10 in april of '21, that went back to 1981 if we look at year over year numbers on headline, expecting up 6%, exactly 6%. and that is well off the 6.4 in the rearview mirror. high water mark, 1981. in 1981, it was up 9.1, and that was a 40-year high if we look at ex-food and energy year over year, up 5.5, as expected, 0.1% lighter than the rearview mirror at 5.6, high water mark here, add a percentage, 6.6, in september of '92, that went back to 1982. if you look at interest rates, they have moved a bit lower. if you look at pre-opening dow futures, they are going a bit higher the only fly in the ointment here was the month over month being 0.1% hotter on core. but i think what most people were

last wednesday last wednesday is when we cracked above 5% on this yield let's kick it off with rick santelli rick >> yes, you borrowed my first chart. one week and two-year yields just think, one week ago today it closed at 5.07% to think it closed at 4.43% last year and we're at 3.84 that puts it in perspective. that was two-year note yields. let's look at two-year futures, and on top of that, let's put another price contract, fed fund futures. on this chart, i would like the viewers to understand that it is important to try to decipher the magic of fed fund futures, but it's basically just another short-term debt instrument look at the way it looks on that chart. now, let's switchgears let's keep fed fund futures as a price and overlay that with one-month t-bills, down about the same amount in yield and you can see how they're ly . tomorrow, it will be one interesting morning. i know you will be discussing that, kelly. i don't think they are going to raise rates at all, in my opinion. but we will have to wait and see, but there's some very telling markets. so the two-year in europe versus

let's go to the bond market now and rick santelli. ck >> tyler, before 10:00 eastern pretty much the markets were a lot different, especially in long maturities. look at an intraday of ten-year and realize some of the news at that point was pushing rates lower. long dated treasuries like the 10s prior to 10:00 eastern were trading -- let's go to the two-day chart. under yesterday's low yields one of the reasons, bank of canada a pause. a large central bank pausing they paused at 4 1/2%. they want to let it simmer a bit and see what happens that did have an effect here but it quickly diminished because at 10:00 eastern you had powell, you had stronger than expected jolts, all of this of course hitting and as you look at the two-day chart of two-year affecting them in a much more dramt eck fashion than long dated. hence they were making more of an inversion in the yield curve as investors really started to parse the notion that on the back end of this at some point not too distant future they're going to be successful in controlling pric

peter, the yields are creeping back up towards 4% rick santelli joins us rick, what's the deal? >> well, keep in mind that these are -- this is a reopening, so it makes it easier to move the paper. but here, the yield was 3.985 at the auction. but the market was trading three basis points lower, 3.598. everything else is almost meaningless when you have a lower yield, you have a higher price. when you have a higher yield, you have a lower price if you're auctioning securities, you don't want a lower price most of the other matchups were near averages. but the pricing gives it a d as in dog and you can see almost immediately on the results of the auction, yields are moving a bit closer to 4% by the way, if everything is as hawkish as they say and the fed has their thumb on the pulse, why are ten-year notes so far behind and the curve so inverted we can't even hold 4%. we're nowhere near that 4.25, which is the high-yield close, which 2s and 3s have scir circumvented kelly, back to you >> peter, yesterday one of the big takeaways was the fact that we saw the short end really spike

rick santelli is tracking this for us. rick? >> a much better auction today, kelly. $43 billion hit the auction block at five years. my grade, a b-plus, that's afternoon important thing to think about, the yields. 3.665. the issue market was on the high yield at the time, which was 3.675. one basis point higher, lower yield, higher price. one of the main reasons, the grade was up there a bit. all the other metrics were solid against the ten auction average. and i think the reason that this auction is important, this is one of the first ones where i saw really good demand, as we are discussing the odds in the banking and financial systems, all a little nervous that the fed turns a nose blind to all the aromas in the room. but this makes me think maybe the high yield, the comeback to all of this, may be about to run its course. kelly, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much. ric. >>> markets have turned lower with the dow down 32 points. my next guest isn't buying the rally that we are trying to build over the last four days or

more on the volatility we're seeing in the bond market let's go, where else, to chicago is and rick santelli> hi, tyler there's so many issues going on here but let's start at the beginning. the 8:30 eastern beginning cpi for february and if you look at what i call the super -- the super core x food energy and shelter you can see we've made some significant progress and also just to point out the 6% on year over year headline today at 6% was the lowest level since september of '21. 5.5% was what we had when you were removing ex food and energy unlike the shelter chart i just showed that was the lowest since november of '21. there's been a lot of talk about not only what's going on with europe and the uk and how there's a high correlation, our central bank seems to be the central bank of the world. but lots of eyes focused on the banking index in japan and when you overlay that with the kbw you can clearly see he that they moved right in sync. as a matter of fact, you could even argue that the japanese market was a little more aggressive on the downturn but what's very interesting here, tyler

let's go to rick santelli in chicago with that. rick? >> yes.nfidence from the confidence board, march data points i don't see the headline number but on the present situation, i see that we are now at 151.1 on present situation. just to put the face on it, our last look was at 152.8. we digress just a bit. if we look at the expectations or what lies ahead, that's at 73.0. in the rearview mirror 69.7. 73.0 the second best number of the year. finally the headline number coming out, we're expecting 101.0. 104.2. much better than expected. a revision of last month which was a whisker under 103, moves to 103.4. when was the last time we had a numbers at 104.2. the second best number of the year. 106 in january. and do keep in mind, that we continue to see short maturity yields moving ahead a bit more aggressive than the longer dated and seeing reinversions back into the yield curves. carl, back to you. >> rick santelli this morning. >>> meantime the senate banking kicking off a hearing on the collapse of silicon valley bank today. with fdic chair ma

rick santelli is live for us. rick? >> i have a special guest today.nything short term. jerome schneider. thank you for being here. >> sure. >> many believe the federal reserve was an agency that rarely made mistakes. seems like 2022 and 2023 are really hurting their record as deposits left the system and emigrated. we see there was a vacuum there that has created an issue. is the fed going to raise a quarter point tomorrow like the markets want? if they do, will it make a big difference with regard to the nervousness of the banking sector? >> it's a coin flip. you could have a dovish hike or hawkish pause. the reality is the feds are going to manage the evolving situation between growth, financial situations and the immediate need for financial conditions, and then -- >> how did they respond to financial conditions tightening up? >> in the mediate term, they looked for deposits from the fdic. that took the strain off the system in the near term. there's concerns about how the economy evolves, about the high interest rates and how it evolves in the eco

>> bob, richard it get to rick santelli out in chicago. cking bond action rick >> yes tell you what, it's been one crazy week just look at it. retired two-year note yield down over 70, 7-0 basis points on the week almost three quarters of 1%. fed fund futures up almost 100 basis points on the week and finally boons closed and tightens ecb 50 basis points and closed down 40 basis points. it's been wild go grab jason. jason, it has been a crazy week. what can you put on the tombstone this friday what's occurred monday through friday >> yeah. certainly a wild ride. if we go back to last week, all but 50 basis points priced in almost as a certainty. add next week's fomc meeting and a large shock with the banks system with svb and now seems we don't know what -- >> everybody's talking don't do 25 it will be crazy people think they know more. i personally think that's crazy, if they do anything. what do you think about the vic, can't get over 30? >> people want to know if the fed put us back. may well be. at some point early this week a 0% rate,

rick santelli. >>> we're 30 minutes into the trading session.n the stock market. long-time tesla bull and morgan stanley analyst naming ferrari his new pick pointing to the pricing power, backlog natural gas, continuing to collapse on pass for the worst day in over a month. more on that move in just a moment we're watching the home builders, kb homes gets a double downgrade to sell, d.r. horton taken to neutral by jpmorgan analysts writing, quote, we anticipate some mod dration in demand trends over the coming months following the recent moves in rates particularly given the stock strength since june 2022 guys, what really brings us to the top story in the market, i mean, with mortgage rates at 7% and the 2-year and 10-year marching higher the resilience of the equity market i think is surprising to a lot of bears out there and a lot of people who are watching who are saying look, higher yields hurts the economy, the fed has to do more for longer should get in the way of stocks, and yet the market is remarkably resilient. >> it's kind of why we

. >>> big moves on the bond market with fed chair powell's announcement today rick santelli tracking >> hi, tyler demand was pretty good, above average, you can clearly see the 10:00 eastern powell pop and something important happened we all know two-year note yields are up almost 11 basis points, three's are up almost nine the reason is they could get even more momentum, finally taking out the fall close. that's the only part of the curve. now it's rolling down. three years have done it high yield close from october was 465. well above that now. and if you open the chart up, you can see it's joining the two-year now in the highest closes we've seen since 2007 and if we look at the next maturity, the five-year, i want you to notice how it is not above its fall high yield close, which was at 4445. briefly traded minus 103, the most inverted it's been since 1981 on a closing basis as you see on the chart, and finally, the dollar index, it's one of the few areas that likes the higher interest rates and the fed guidance it's going to close, it looks like at least a three-month plus high,

. >>> nervous investors buying bonds today sent yields down rick santelli in chicago for us. ck, explain it >> yes, maybe let's start with the most aggressive maturity, two-year note. if you recall, two weeks ago today, it closed above its fall high yield at 4.725%, which really kicked off a lot of aggressive selling, pushing yields higher, and it even dragged the three-year note this week above its fall high yield close. not anymore. if you open the chart up, you can see that early november high yield at 4.725, we're now well below it and many are saying, well, it doesn't really matter because this is a flight to safety, it is different yes, it is different but it does matter if we close below a key level, technicals kick in now, at 4.60, current yield, we're down 27 on the day, 26 basis points on the week high yield etf, over the last three days, see the differentiation there? that's important to pay attention to if you look at the dollar yen, usually the yen is a safety trade and definitely that way at this point look at the dollar dropping, granted it is coming off a three

rick santelli, what are they? >> yes. ñ year.rket, right around 323. very solid support. do keep in mind keyfá prices ar moving around likexd co%■ties. big ranges. liquidity sometimes an issue. this morning 9:45 eastern. it was better. it reversed rates lphigher. two year was over 5% this month. if you look at sv4tens, they we over 4% this month. go back to october. they never traded over the highs. high yield e1etfs with the investment grade. and that is thee1 trend chasing credit is important. when is last time you saw banks avoiding banks moving into corporates? let's see whaul dave is up to. dave? >> yeah, rick? >> hi.e1 it's been a crazy week. what have you seen? >> there's panic. there is panic in ÷] air. they never know. going into a weekend, friday, you don't know what is going to happen.r i. it usually happens. they wait from the backage. and then monday comes around. >> they're pointing out and me included. when you look at the big vix, it barely touched 30. it is below that point. do you think options are taking a litt

let's go to rick santelli in chicago now. means that ground is lost in the value of the bonds. >> absolutely. that means price goes down and all these banks we're talking about that have pulled to maturity securities their losses get a bit bigger. if we look at intraday of 5s we do see right around 1:00 eastern rates went down. they went down, not up. and the reason they went down, a very successful auction. if you look at a one-week chart some of the highest yields in this five-year note that we've had since last wednesday. and if you notice on friday the low yield there was 3.23, which means we've moved 40 basis points higher. is this giving us a signal? tyler's talking about how rates have been higher, and they have. but maybe the demand at this auction means they're going to cool off just a bit. three months to two-year. the distance between our two-year and three-month bills has collapsed. as a matter of fact, we are hovering at the closest those two have been in over 20 years. and finally, if we look at what's going on

. >> thank you very much, rick santelli stocks are higher today as investors do seem to be shaking offgative news, and upping their appetite for ring check how the this chart from bespoke. from 1987 the only largest streak of net negative sentiment was surrounding the financial crisis in '08-'09. our next guest things the overwhelmingly bearish sentiment is creating near-term upside opportunity. let's talk markets with the founding partner and chief investment officer with investment capital always great to see you. it's interesting to see how negativity prefaces positive market moves. >> it's all about expectations and with a market that's really the intersection of reality and expectations, obviously better to have low expectations than high expectations. i convinced my parents in high school that if they expected cs and i brought home bs that they would be favorably impressed, and that's really what's going on in the stock market today if you look at the share of bullish investors as measured by the american association of individual investors, and this is a weekly survey that goes

guys just set policy and stop trying to predict the future, because you're not very good at it >> rick santelli loving it the fed forced us all into equities, and now they're saying they don't care the market is sinking. thank you, everyone. this year. are you sticking with it as they hold their investor day? what are you listening for >> yeah, kelly so elon musk is the most underestimated ceo in the country and personality. so what you heard people saying is he was distracted with twitter. it doesn't appear that was the case compared to previous distractions when he was butting heads with the fcc and hanging out with joe rogan late at night, this seemed to be easier for him to get under control so we stepped in, because we have opened it in the past and we got out too early so what we'll be listening for is, you know, what is the expectation for the new 4680 battery technology what is he going to do about the lithium problem? you know, we own lithium, we own all the metals and miners, but there is a shortage. we're going to have to come to grips with mining and freeing up these metals so that

. >> let's starz( with rick santelli andr option. how did that go over?to bottom, as yo5ñá lo at the intraday, you can clearly see the market voted. yi. it's the firstnb■ yield at an auction for twos that's under 4% sinceu■q august. last summer, and if you consider the fact that most of thexdq metrics were justlpÑiñrxd horri. the first to cover, and the ten option average isjfçó Ñi2.62, b what's really fascinating here is why didn't investors flock td this? well, maybe it's b]ause the banks are doing better today. maybe it's ther one thing ii]x: sure, :a;zezq all of the rumblings i've been hearinyd al weekend and this morning it'sok probably more of avoidance than it is about a statement thatÑi yields will go straight back upo it's been an awful lotxd of volatility and traders rather forego the optionçó and andq monitor the secondary market. >> 4.008, that's the two-year. coming up,t(t( backingjf the ba. is there more rescue money onq the way? goldman's chief polit) economist is on deck. grilled onxd capitol hill. apple's ceo was making his first known tr

let's get the explanation from rick santelli in chicago. >> he yes. tyler, big jump in all yields up over 25 basis points in the 2-year and as you look at the intraday chart you can see around 1:00 eastern a very soft 2-year note auction pushed yields up higher at a time where there's a lot of nervousness out there, but nobody stepped up. that's interesting. and if you look at what's going on in 2s in a bigger picture after the big jump in yields we are still hovering at areas we haven't been at since september. if you look at the 10-year, well, it's the same scenario, sent for on the other chart on the left we started right around 3.25, how much they moved today. 3 months to 10s what everybody is paying attention to at minus 123, six basis points away from the recent extremes. four-year database has never been as inverted in my database as it is now. kelly, back to you. >> just incredible. after all we've been through. thank you. >>> oil rising by more than 5%. the energy stocks too. this is a huge jump. what's driving it? >> huge jump seems to be a

meantime, rick santelli live at the cbo with more on today's tumultuous action. reporter: yeah. there's a lot of action. as a matter of fact, a lot of people are calling for cleanup on aisle 12. all i know is that if you consider what's going on with ten-year note yields going on right now, they are hovering near the lowest yield close since the last big jobs report on february 3rd. i find that fascinating. and as you look at ten-year over vix over two weeks, you can see how the inverses correlate almost precisely and if you want them to be directly correlated let's look at the vix well under 30 look at the fed fund futures there's a lot of action going on here let's talk to our buddy pat. >> hey, rick. >> pat, here's what i want to know at the end of the day we have the ecb tomorrow everybody is talking about rate decisions. nobody knows the answer there, but you know something about volatility that you want to share. >> so biggest things that we're seeing right now as you were pointing out, the vix has been skyrocketing with this move. we're seeing a vix right a

. >>> let's get to the bond market we had economic data, what's going on, rick santelli? >> you know, i find it fascinating every thursday morning, of course, looking at continuing claims. first of all, we're all assuming whether it's seasonality or whatever other variables may be impacting certain data points, that they're spot on maybe in a year from now, when we look back, there's going to be a variety of issues that might have put some of those numbers off their gps, but it is all we have to contend with. we had another week where below 200,000 on initial claims, below 1.7 million on continuing claims and as you look at a two-year note chart, you can see at 8:30, yields popped a little bit how much does the market pay attention to this? pretty closely if you look at a two-day of two-year, the high yields today are above yesterday's high yields, and we're still hovering in the thick of the range. let's go to the furthest end of the yield curve, down to a 30-year bond you can see its two-day chart is completely different yes, it reflected the 8:30 eastern slight rise, b

. >> let's get to rick santelli with a look at the treasury markets this morning. o slow it down, even though most likely it's going to break down and get to the bottom of the hill and stop. i don't see any way around them doing 25. i think the logic that many have expressed on your show, joe, that if the fed doesn't raise a quarter point, it's going to show how nervous they are about the banking system. if they were nervous about the banking system, we wouldn't be talking about the banking system, they probably would have monitored it better and i think everybody knows there's some nervousness out there. people are awake. people aren't ignorant. it seems like a very superficial argument. joe, i think you actually get the a-plus. you've been talking about raising capital requirements at banks. for years, going back to '06 in the credit crisis, trying to modify behavior of banks is a alsoing proposition. they're lions, they're meat eaters and the government leaves raw steaks all over the place. like clients that trade. talk to terry duffy who runs a great exchange he

sorry about that. >> and we are going to get this report in just a few seconds let's go over to rick santelliayrolls, 311,000. if you look at manufacturing payrolls, they were down 4,000 two-month net revision is minus 34,000, minus 34,000 and if you consider the unemployment rate, it moved up to 3.6 3.6 from 3.4, which happened to have been a 53-year low. if you look at average hour ly earnings month to month, 0.2 that is the smallest month-over-month change since february when it was unchanged if you look at year over year, it is 4.6. now that indeed is better than a still unrevised 4.4 and 4.4 was the lowest year over year since july of '21. average work week, 34.5 and we are expecting 34.6 so that is a bit smaller than expected and last year's 34.7 moved to 34.6 labor force participation, 62.5, .01 better than expected and 62.5 is the best rate since 62.6 in march of 2020. and if we look at the underemployment rate, or u-6, it is 6.8 i do want to point out at the end of last year this series was at 6.5, which was the lowest since 1994 record keeping. we look at what's going on, interest r

let's go to rick santelli ine1 c he has that for us. rick?c thank you,xd sara.ver 7%. but there wasc a windowñr therec downward pressure inq thatpr potentially helping housing and for that, of course, let's head east to diana olick and see what her thoughts about 1%.çó diana? >> well, rick, i think this is still añr good number and that' because in february, we saw aÑi sharp spike in mortgage interesk r"íqáy these numbeb&f are based on signed contractsmy■Ñi forp,■Ñi t homes, not clothing. it's the same as we sawçói] in "déb&aeháhe, existing home sales report, based on contracts signed in december and january when mortgage ratesq@(ere lower. to see at least someÑii] strengn the builders continuing into february, when those rates spiked up, that's a good sign going forwardúp what's interesting to me, though, i huge jump in the number of homes sold that have not been started yet and that seems to say that builders are going to need to ramp up production quickly and that's important again for the builder stocks an what wejf see going forward in housing starts becaus

want to get to rick santelli for that. >> yes, david.the pmis have really been early indicators. no exception here. 49.3 on the manufacturing pmi. we're expecting 47, so one might say it's better and indeed it is. however, it is the fifth month of contraction and if we look at the services, pmi may be the more important aspect here. it is much better than expected, which makes life difficult. the fed's paying very close attention to the service sector. 53.8 and that's the best level since april of last year, and if we look at the composite, also stronger than expected, 53.3. that's the best since may of last year. and it does underscore how difficult it's going to be for the federal reserve on this quick run-up on rates, which is hurting the financial system, but yet we see the service sector really seems to be still holding its own. "squawk on the street" will return after a short break. all across the country, people are working hard to build a better future. so we're hard at work, helping them achieve financial freedom. we're investin

eastern time >>> getting data of inventories and nahb let's get to rick santelli >> yes, carl, thanka. january, business inventories, expected unchanged our last look was down .3. minus .1% is the number. minus .1% it is the first negative number since april of last year. actually, i'm sorry, april of '21. and as a matter of fact, in order to find a lower number, because that equalled minus .1 you have to go back to june of 2020 to see an inventory month over month negative change larger than minus one tenth of one percent. we know interest rates going down hurts housing we saw mortgage rates following the wild markets and more information in the housing sector national association of home builder housing market index and for that we go to diana olick. >> reporter: builder sentiment in march rose two points to 44 on the monthly index the street was looking for a drop but that's the third straight gain and the highest level since september of last year anything over 50 is positive, but not there yet. but even as builders continue to deal with stubbornly high construction cost and mate

rick santelli here live at cmh initial jobless claims, it delivers 198,000 we remain under that psychologicaler 200,000 since the very first week in march and prior to that you have to go all the way to the end of -- beginning of the year, end of december the point is that the longer they stay lower, most likely the more aggressive the fed would be, know we have the asterisk of banking issues continuing claims, 189,000, under the important 1.7 million psychologically. that's actually what we were expecting. and in the rear view mirror we revised lower, 1.694. 1.685. e -- we were al 1.4 in the rear view mirror. consumption is the lowest number since june of 2020 if we look at the pricing index, the high water mark was june of 2022 at 9% which goes back to 1981 and its 3.9% remains as it was, has no revisions and if we look at the core, quarter over quarter, 4.4, not good this actually ticked 1/10 higher in the rear view mirror than our second look which was 4.3 and 4.4 is the highest level going back to the third quarter when it was 4.7 now, we probably will see a little bit of a spike up in i

let's get out to rick santelli at the cme in chicago. good morning, rick >> reporter: good morning. start out with initial jobless claims last week we popped back above 200,000. not to be this week. under 200,000. 192,000. that is the lightest since the last week in february and it does underscore how tight the labor market is. and if we look at continuing claims, they popped above 1.7 million last week. back under it, 1,684,000, and we could see import prices d down 1/10 of of 1% and strip out petroleum, down 0.4 of 1%. that's the biggest month-over-month negative change since july of last year. if we look at year-over-year import prices, they were down 1.1, exactly as expenses and export prices up 0.2 year over year export down over 0.8. starts have been negatively effective interest rates this month already started the improvement, 1,450,000 on starts, seasonally adjusted annualized units it's much better than what we were looking for 1,450,000 actually is the best number going all the way back to september of last year permits 1,524,000 much better than the 1.34 million we were

we want to go over to rick santelli with a look at treasuries rick >> it's unbelievable two-year noteeek, a ten at 345 is down 25 basis points on the week if you look at a 10-year chart you see how quickly we've gone from 4% to under 3.5%. i think this next chart is the best of all. this is a july of 2020 chart on august 4th we made the all-time yield close at 4.1% as treasure yields moved up, what happened was the unrealized losses piled up and hedges were insufficient the rest is kind of history. look at fed fund futures now, i understand that they're pricing in probably around a 75% chance of a quarter point next week i'm not going to argue that. once again, at this point in time that's the proper amount. will it change as we get more information? absolutely but as you look at that chart, we really jumped and i think the enfact that pris have jumped, we can clearly see the landscape has changed and much of the investors' opinions have changed about culpability as well. >> thank you, rick >> kind of like '87 a little bit, avery, rick, do you remember >> oh, god, i remember i was in

for more on rates, let's bring in steve liesman and rick santelli.ut i also think that there's a whole movement going on here that people are starting to get used to the aromas of how some of these issues are going to continue to play out. so i don't think that the rally that you're discussing today is necessarily going to have the legs to last. i think we're in for a lot more volatility. and as to whether we see an ease in 2023 or not, it's impossible for me to have any type of good glimpse into the clouds of the future. i just can't tell. we've gone from 25% in the quarter to 42, 43% of the kwr at the next fed meeting. the on reason i bring that up is for the amount of range we can cover on any given day and all the variables that can change so quickly. it was just the 13th that most of this stuff with regard to banks started to surface. i mean, consider this. it was on the 8th of march, the five of year note was the 5.07. the ten-year traded 3.37, 50 basis points below where is settled last year. joe, fdic, no fdic, the fact that we have to be rea

rick santelli standing by at the cme. what are the numbers today? >> february preliminaries.e, came up better than expected. so we finished up last year up 0.2. finally, if you look at shipments versus orders, they were also unchanged, which matches transportation but unchanged was 0.2 less than expectations. we're getting some subtle revisions across the boards. minus 4.5, all the way down to minus 5 and transportation up 0.8. why am i spending so much time on that revision? the numbers weren't good on the surface and when you take into account that number was downgraded, that adds into the notion. we all know that this quarter isn't shaping up to be necessarily a good quarter. many are seeing recession. i don't see a way to avoid it. just to put a face on this, we all see what's going on with interest rates, 356 in the two-year. on march 8th, though closed at the highest since 2007. now we're at the lowest since september ten-year and we did the charts a month ago and about five months ago i'd stake my claim here, 4 1/2 is the high. it was the high back in october. we never

rick santelli here live with the breaking news of the day in the form of initial continuing claims forn, that's the lightest level, well, since last week basically. if we look and it was a little less than the 13 billion expected and definitely refs on. we continue to monitor all that is the tread and trern and paul in the q & a certainly didn't do a lot of damage to the equity markets and interest rates were moving a bit lower but then again, janet yellen changed the direction there talking about no blanket coverage. i happen to agree with that but it definitely didn't pli well with equity. >> right now i want to bring in the chairman and ceo of starwood capital. he has been vocal for quite a while telling us how he thinks the fed should have stopped raising rates sooner. what's look, i thit i was in israel so you have a huge -- the biggest in the whole economy, the federal government across the hill, they're not actually changing their spending patterns based on his interest rate raises. so the onlyand i do we looked at what was happening with impact, the other banking system. so i t

. >> i have to ask you to hang on for one second rick santelli has break being economic data. those numbers. rick >> yes as you watch the market you see interest rates moving lower, equities moving higher the reason 211,000 on initial jobless claims that's the first time it's been above 200,000 since the 23rd of last year and continuing claims topped 1.7 million the last time they did that was mid december but this actually is the highest level since january. so we're looking at 1,718,000. what's interesting here, andrew, is it equals our mid read but to find a higher read, you would have to go back to the end of january. these numbers aren't good in a traditional sense. to the standpoint of what's good and bad, it definitely may ease back some of the temptations of the fed, especially after we get tomorrow's data and next week's inflation data becky, andrew, joe, back to you. >> rick, thank you for that. i want to get back to claire we were talking about a.i. and specifically salesforce. this goes to the issue of data and how the data gets used and siloed long term how do you

this is on the heels of adp that is a little stronger than expected rick santelli standing by at there looking for a january final for trade balance. it's going to be a deficit but a much smaller deficit than we had over the last year we're expecting 68 billion with a minus sign, minus 68.3 billion, almost spot on with estimates. when you put that into the mix, we notice that last month's 67.4 minus was the smallest deficit going all the way back to september of 2020. so we are making progress and i'd like to high lie that the ugly watermark was in march of last year at minus 106 billion so definitely we have made some progress has we see. now, if we look at the pressure r treasuries quite quickly here, every treasury has lower yields, higher prices than yesterday's when you look at 2s and 3s, 3s join the two-year maturity yesterday in closing above their fall high yield close. yesterday it was 5.65% about a week and a half ago it was 4.275% why are these important? because it crawling down the curve in terms of the intensity of the shorter maturities buying into more of the fed stra

rick santelli here live at cmehq with some important breaking news, a lot of important breaking news.bruary reads on consumer price index. buckle up people, down 1/10 of 1% in december it was down 2/10 you're lowering some of those prices versus changing the rate of change. strip out food energy and trade, up 0.2 and that equals the best numbers since january of '21 november/december of last year january we were up 0.6 year over year projbably the mot important. year over year expecting 5.4, 4.6 on year over year. that is the lowest level going back to march of 'it2021 and the high water mark there, just so people realize how far we have come, the high water mark there was 9.7 if we strip out food, energy and trade, it's also up 4.4. so these numbers have really come down rather dramatically. that brings us to the lowest level also since march of 2021 you're seeing numbers under 3.5% in a ten-year. look at empire, minus 21.6 now look at retail numbers, exactly as expected. exactly as expected. that's the worst number since when it was minus 1.1. if you strip out autos down one-tenth o

two-year yield is at its highest level and more than 15 years for more and rates let's bring in rick santellihard to get from 3 1/2 to 4 are we really going to 5 1/2 do you believe that personally, rick >> can i say let's go to the charts i like looking at the charts here's the way i play it the all-time forever low yield close was from august 4th of 2020 at half of 1% it means if you're a ntechnician this is gold to have an all-time low level to begin a pattern with let's keep it simple, one, two, three, four, five. five waves we can have a lot of different activity here but the current high yield from october at just under 4.25, my charts say i'm going to stick with that i called it right after it happened on your show. i've had many people write in saying you really can't believe that's going to hold but yet it has held for quite a while so i'm going to stick with it at this point and acknowledge the fact that the yield curve, the inversion is my friend on this one because no matter what happens on the short end, it isn't necessarily going to send any signals to the longer end moving the s

rick santelli here we're looking for 2.5% disappointment, 1.7.s replacing 1.6 -- excuse me, 1.7 is replacing 3% that's a big drop. unit labor costs exactly doubled from expectations. expecting 1.6 comes out up 3.2%. our previous look was 1.1. so really ramping up if we look at initial jobless claims, they remain under 200,000, 190,000 and continuing claims also besting expectations, 1,655,000. in the rear view mirror, 1,060,000. the close yesterday, we didn't really close above 4% in a true cash market close. i don't mean to be splitting hairs here gentlemen and ladies, but that is significant if you're a technician, especially for the weekly close tomorrow. preopening equities are still up with respect to what they're looking for on the big 9:30 eastern opening. we still of course will continue to monitor what's going on above 4% but i can't stress. intraday is one thing, but the close, that's technically significant. joe, back to you >> steve leisman joins us. >> we had a massive surge in productivity with the pandemic a lot of productivity wor