shorter maturities rick santelli in chicago with the markets?d the long maturities are higher in yield on the session. the let's start with 2-year notes on top of the kbw index. there's the chart. we can see what's driving the short duration into higher prices and it's been a bank to a normal more trade and poil si. now look at how this has been affected in 2-year note yield. we've seen minus 35 to minus 5 it may be the least inverted when it's only 37. thes would have been done. five 1/4 is nervousness in another mogul in the treasury complex, the debt issue. the highest yield close, what has that done? whoop for yourself at the close, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you for that. >>> ahead on "power lunch," the dow down 300 points. declined -- >> we've still got an hour and a half of trading left to go, kel. >> we do if you told me this is what it was going to do,we're waiting for apple earnings we to have a stable environment. what about a.i.? we'll be back with more if you're on "power lunch." how's the chicken? the prawns are delicious

i'm sure in just moments you will break down all the details you and rick santelli.k over to you >> the yields are eyebrow raising again. >>> to raise or not to raise, that is the question for the fed's next policy meeting in june and former fed chair ben bernanke says another hike is necessary and he thinks a soft landing is possible. both my next guests agree about the rate hike but not the soft landing part let's bring in my guests welcome to both of you chris, i'll start with you why do they need to keep hiking? >> kelly, i think the economy is still quite strong it's an ocean liner, we have had an inverted curve for about six months it usually takes a year or more for things to slow down, so they have their work cut out. there's still several hawks on the committee. i think you will see a hike in june >> let me ask you differently, or sort of phrase it differently. maybe everyone thinks they will hike, but should they? you're worried about a hard landing already here >> i am, i am. having said that, i think the fed's between a rock and a hard place, because they

rick santelli is never subdued he is cracking the action for us from out in chicago. s the yield picture look like the next day >> you know, dom, rates are pretty firm today, all things considered if you look at inter-day of two-year note yields, anything to do with the fed, the loan survey out by the senior loan officials, you can clearly see it had an effect on two-year note yields, pushing them up a bit. if we put a two-day, we could see that the jobs report friday resulted in a rising rate. that continued right into today. we're at the high yields of the session, and many were questioning whether friday's jobs report was actually that good 149,000 revisions to the previous two months, all weekend, all i read was people scratching their heads to the long litany of inaccuracies in some of these jobs reports but it is what it is it certainly seems to have pushed rates up a bit. if you look at march 1st, dom, and this is really interesting, we know right around march 7th, we made the high yield close at 07 for twos. to think, after the loan survey, after the fed last w

bond yields are lower today after the cbi report rick santelli is standing by hi, rick. >> reporter:al macro himself i.r.a. harris joins me. how many members have you been a member of the chicago exchange >> 47 years. >> in the '70s when you walked on the trading floor he's the guy team late. let's go right into it recession. it seems as though the new york fed looking at three months versus a ten-year spread and they are saying the chances have gone from a mid to plus 50s into 68% chance of recession. your thought >> well, really, it's a metric i don't really care about, because as i said what's a recision, when your neighbor loses a job, depression is when you lose your job. this is too hard to ascertain in this time, especially now. so i don't real very. >> reporter: nowadays just because you know recession is coming doesn't mean equityis putting the rally right to the point where you get the release of negative quarter or gdp. >> no, and the fed to me keeps making this error that that's what they are measuring financial conditions well, that's nonsense. the underlying financial c

. >>> let's get pmis, turn to rick santelli this morning. ick. >> yes, global pmis coming out from s&p philly non-manufacturing was a minus number even though it improved regarding service sector here we go, on the manufacturing side, wow, under 50 again, 48.5. we popped over 50 last month it was the first time since october. we're back below at 48.5 is the lowest level since january -- excuse me -- yeah, when it was 46.9 if we look at the services, by far the most important aspect of this, 55.1 it's improved. so yields are going to firm up a built on that. 55.1 is the highest level since april of last year when it was 55.6 finally, when we put them together, the composite reading, 54.5 also a bit better than expected. 54.5 is the best, also, since april of last year rates have moved up not to the highs yet, but definitely the service sector is what many are concentrating on because that's the focus of some of the best strength in the economy, especially when one considers the path of the federal reserve. "squawk on the street" will return af

let's head to chicago where rick santelli is. re ticking higher. >> reporter: absolutely. the selling pressure ramped up when you saw the data point, that was the qualitative, but important five to ten-year inflation outlook. most are saying highest inflation since 2011, and that's true you have to go back to 2008 to find a higher level. that's the comp. the university of michigan was weak when you look at twos and tens together. you can see how they popped at 10:00 eastern, rather aggressively and if you extend that, you can clearly see that since the fall, twos and tens have been moving together even though there's yield curve issues there after all that, twos are still under 4%, tens are under 3.5%. finally the dollar index having a stellar issues because of banking issues many are asking why is inflation so sticky? i'll give you three reasons. forget politics. forget republicans, independents and republicans and think about it this way. american rescue plan in 2021, inflation reduction act in 2022. put dots on a chart and look

. >> incredible saga not over yet >>> let's get chicago pmi from rick santelli. that means. weaker chicago pmi $40.4. that's seven points below what we were expecting. that happens to be the ninth number under 50, contraction territory. last time we were over 50 was august and it was 51.9 it's the weakest since november of last year when it had one of its rare occasions where it was under 40 yes, you can see interest rates slide. this isn't going to be good for the equity markets either, and of course, this will lead into the national numbers it gives us a good potential on manufacturing. many will say we want to watch service, but service seems to be slowing down as well ultimately, the speed of the economy has been so much better than anybody anticipated, but this certainly looks like the speedometer is starting to slow down even more don't touch that remote, though, because "squawk on the street" will return after just a short break. want more from your vitamins? get more with nature's bounty. from the first-ever triple action sleep supplement. to daily digest

let's get to rick santelli hey, rick. >> yes, good morning, carl conference board, consumer confidencee number expected 99.0. comes in much better, 101.3. that jumps over what now is a revised from 101.3 to 103.7. what's notable about that, with that revision, it makes the current better than expected read at 102.3 less than the rearview mirror and the least, the smallest month over month confidence numbers since november of last year. if you look at the present situation, not a good number 148.6. that's the lowest number of the year you have to go back to december of last year to find a lower number finally, on the expectations, what may lie ahead, 71.5 71.5 that follows a revised 68.1 that moves up to 71.7 which makes 71.5 the lightest read since february as, of course, expectations have been a bit on the depressed side interest rates have been pretty much across the curve lower. debt deal hasn't been passed but there is a deal. we're in the middle of the range on a 10-year, as high as 3.77, as low as 3.70, hover in the middle at 3.73.5 sara, back to you. >> rick, thank you rick sant

stocks are headed higher and bond yields are basically flat let's get the latest out with rick santellichicago hi, rick >> yes, kelly. yields are basically flat, but they have been moving higher as a matter of fact, if you look at two-year note yields since mid-april you'll see they're on pace to close at the highest level and you go to the other end of the yield curve, 30-year bonds, early march finally, the dollar index has followed rates higher and it is now hovering at some of the best levels that we've seen since late march and that's important because maybe one of the big stories today is are we getting closer to a deal on the debt ceiling and for that, dave miso. >> my man! >> dave, how are you >> good to see you >> what do you think is moving markets today? >> it's all about the debt ceiling. that's why we're rallying. people don't care about the numbers so much and it's all about the debt ceiling and the politicians come out with the charade -- >> it does seem to be a kabuki dance, but we have to deal with it as it is. >> so you don't think the initial claims and the seven and

for that we'll get to rick santelli rick. >> yes, david, our eye is on services information, hittinghe rearview mirror, 51.2, it's the best since february. services on the pricing side, the most important component, 59.6 that is higher than the rearview mirror, which means interest rates have popped up just a little bit on that number. we want to pay attention 59.6 last month it was 59.5 and if we look at employment, considering this is a big week for employment, 50.8 that is lower than 51.3 in the rearview mirror. and finally, on the new orders, 56.1 versus 52.0 that is a nice pop, and that is at the best level, 56.1, since april of 2021. c sara, back to you. >> rick santelli, more confusing data, better services data, adding to better jobs data, kind of being dismissed by wall street because it hasn't had a great correlation with the monthly government jobs report which we'll get on friday. but david, it's a fed day, and -- >> i know. >> we're seeing stability in the market. >> we are. >> and in the regional banks, which is important. >> it is, that's got to be top of mind for you

but tech names leading to gains in s&p 500 let's go now to rick santelli in chicago for more >> reportern treasuries but many of the traders still believe that the long-term i issues are going to be few and far between when it comes to the debt ceiling will they be right in time will tell a two-year note yield, how yields made their highs of the day and this was for good reason 299,000 on initial claims, a huge revision from 242, to 225,000 on last week and continuing claims now remain under 1.8 million. if you open that up the two-year continues to be on pace for fresh high yield closes almost day after day copying the early march and many are talking about how generally short-term securities are having an effect on short-term futures. look at a one-year, one-month generic bill versus fed fund futures for january of '24, you can see the indirect relationship and let's get to an even more directly on this relationship, look at the year to date of that same one-month bill on top of the dollar index, that's the reason why the dollar index seems to be doing so well the issue is what happens

fresh data on the tape which rick santelli has. hey, rick. >> yeah. the month of march expected to be unchanged are down 0.1%. you know, inventories being down is a very rare negative month over month feature we now have two this year, both january and this read in march, down 0.1 didn't have any negative reads last year. we do see that interest rates are moving higher, but it isn't because of business inventories. national association of home builders, housing market index for may, is out and that may have some surprises and for that, let's head east to diana olick. >> rick, home builder confidence in the single family market rose 5 points to 50 in may on the nahb 50 is the line between positive and negative, so it's the first time the index has not been negative since last july the street was looking for a 1 point gain this is the fifth straight month of gains both say it's due to low supply of existing homes for sales, sending buyers to new construction they note that the industry still faces several challenges, including building material, supply

rick santelli live with the traders. > yes, it's the one-two punch the first punch, job openings and labor turnover, jolts dropping under 9.5 million the second part of the punch, regional banks under pressure again, whether it is pak west a and option traded. consider intradays of huge drops. interest rates skyrocketing. you see the kbw index there. the lowest level since october 20 let's talk to a trader what a day, do you have a minute >> of course >> when we look at 50,000 puts today on pacwest, what did it do to volatility? how does that figure into the one-two punch of the fed tomorrow and regional bank nervousness? >> gives short pause for a little bit, but we're going here into the fed meeting as if the ball is sticking out there this is well stelegraphed. hedge fund positioning is short now across the board i'd say it had a blip effect. >> jamie dimon was saying, we can take a breath now. he is one of the best bankers in the world. is he a little early is he incorrect? is there too much in front of the fed meetin

>> i'll be thinking about you the next time i go to kroger's >>> we have a 30-year bond option rick santelli the results. >> 21 million 30-year bonds. the yield of this 30-year bond dutch auction, 3.741 where was the one issue markets trading? 3.755. so lower yield, higher price if you're selling, you always want to sell at a higher price so the treasury did quite well a as in apple for this auction if we look at all the metrics, direct bidders, 17.4, otherwise this one would have finished with an a plus kelly, we see yields are down. we see that inflation on the wholesale level is down. we see initial jobless claim in particular were higher and here we sit, down in yields from 2s out to 30s back to you. >> rick, we appreciate it. >>> markets are under pressure today after that news about the labor market applications for jobless benefits were up by 22,000 to 264,000 last week. it's a 1.5 year high, and it's a sign the last shoe is about to drop for a recession, and a hard landing for the markets. here is with me is the chief investment strategist. >> good to see you >> what a juxtaposition

rick santelli is standing by >> today, all about crunching the numbers. let's start doing that philly fed for me. down nine consecutive months in a row. leading economic indicators for april, down 13 months in a row treasury yields, on pace for its fifth consecutive higher yield close. let's go to the charts 2s and 10s, one week, see the climbing interest rates there. and, of course, it is altering the landscape of fed fund futures, which is always right on any given moment, but every next moment may change getting ever, ever closer to a quarter point tightening at the next meeting if we look at two years in general, you see that, if you start the chart, early march, you can see 507 is the high yield close. it is a still a long way from its peak and should we get above 4.25 on a closing basis, it will be a two-month high yield close. 10s are already there. two-month high yield close and if you look at what is going on in 10s, rate interests come up dramatically, but still a ways from 4.25 the dollar index, it is really been fired up lately we cleared the

rick santelli, thank you. >>> of course, it wouldn't have been good news for the fed or markets if wer rising because that was the big surprise last time we got the numbers, the five to ten-year expectations were high, 3.2, saw a little bit of a moderation and as rick noted a bigger moderation in the one-year inflation expectations. the fed is sensitive to inflation expectation and want to see it remain anchored to show that they are doing their job when it comes to bringing down inflation of course you put this with some of the other data and the evidence we've gotten, inflation has been moderating. that's good news but not fast enough. and it's proving tricky. you saw that in the pce nrnlgs the fed preferred inflation rate which came in 0.4%. >> nice combination of results out of michigan with the sentiment and the lower inflation expectations maybe it has something to do with the areas in which consumers have high frequency touch. we mentioned costco and lower inflation in food and meat, and eggs, gasoline prices, obviously, we're going to memorial day even though inventories aren'

rick santelli and lead writer at "the wall street journal."ood to have all of you here leslie, what about that point that gary cohen made on moral hazard you won't buy a bank unless it's first in receivership. >> that's an incredible point. it goes to show exactly how we will looking at these situations moving forward it's clear, and you can see it in the stock price reaction, all of the wall street analyst coverage from today, jp morgan got a good deal here this. was a good situation for jp morgan to be the winner of these assets, of these liabilities and so he brings up a good point. what is to -- to have a private capital market solution ahead of time when you can get it out of receivership you can go above your threshold as a result of that and, you know, from a financial standpoint, jp morgan is looking at an -- >> is the 250 $250,000 fdic cove a moot point now >> they do care about it there will be smaller banks -- >> they were rescuing the banks, weren't they, in part that put 6 billion, 5 billion, 6 billion in a month ago. >> i think i

let's get to the headlines rick santelli is tracking that >> hi, kelly indeed, you know, the cpi numberhe course of the outcome of the election -- or the auction to some extent why? because it took any concession away yields dropped aggressively. so the auction was $35 billion ten-year notes, the second of a three-part auction totalling $96 billion. and the grade was a c plus, the charlie plus the yield 3.448. one issue was the 3.438. then the tailing was the issue most likely the reason it tailed is because aggressive bidding just wasn't in the cards without that concession. but the metrix were very solid we're making new low yields right now as i speak kelly, back to you >> wow, 3.44 on the ten-year so much for the massive debt ceiling problem. >>> new data showing inflation is cooling, but is it enough for the fed? the consumer price index rose 4.9% in april, 10 straight drops. and airlines dropping 4.5% from a year ago and the new york fed's recession indicator spiked to 68% at the end of april that's the highest rating since 1982 does this position for a pause in june from the fed

. >>> let's switch to the bond market now rick santelli breaking down that jobs report. how is it going, rick? >> hi, kelly indeed maybe the most important issue today in my opinion is you look at the ten-year note yields, the fact that we're on the week. we're significantly higher on the session. the reason this is important is because last week on the weekend we saw first republic get purchased. on monday, we shot up over 360 so if one of the reasons stocks are up today is because banks are doing better, pacwest, kbw index, what is going on with the yields if you look at week to date of bunds, they closed down ten-year, even though the ecb is hawkish and raised rates the dollar index, it isn't quite there, but very near one-year lows but to be fair, it is still above 100, which is considered pretty rich. speaking of that, let's find paul. >> hey, rick. >> one question i want to ask you. and that is what is most important thing investors that are watching right now that have positions in equities, what should they be most concerned with or paying the most attention to sh

rick santelli standing by at cbo. eact and take us forward, rick. >> alls i need to tell you is we had a 21-day cash management built t bill auction today you know what the yield was? 6.2% holy cannoli, that is a big yield. and if we look at two-years as reference they're on pace for the highest yield close again since the second week of march and 30-year bond yields. did you notice this morning they crossed 4% intraday? they've done that a few times. but we haven't closed above 4% going all the way back, yes, you guessed it, to november of last year finally, one thing we want to point out, when it comes to t-bills, what's going to happen after we get a debt ceiling? let's go talk to a trader. paul how's it going, wig guy? >> hey, rick, how are you oing >> debt ceiling is all anyone wants to talk about. give me your rendition of that story. >> well, you know, you're talking about that auction the market's definitely paying attention to the debt ceiling, but we see down here vix isn't elevated you know, it's not really

and rick santelli is standing by for us last week you told us the debt ceiling did not seem to be thern. is that changing >> no, it's not changing it is the big concern for market volatility, but all the traders i talked to all seem to say the same thing, spending and debt levels are unsustainable there is no way they will cut the baby in half without discussing those relevant issues look at one-month bills are reflecting nervousness as they pop up over a point and a half your three-month more well behaved. the two-year, whether it was debt ceiling, powell, they were all jumbled together it was hard to tell. if you look at the two-year, you can see yesterday they closed at the highest level since may 10th sideways today even at sideways they're up 27 points on the week june fed funds, that hype is gone one day they took it out back to you. >> all right, rick thank you very much. have a good weekend. with ev sales growing, lithium a key battery component has become a hot commodity and that could lead to consolidation in the industry. >> well, companies are sitting on a whole lot of cas

rick santelli. >>> the debt ceiling drama is not the only concern for investors.ks are positioning for an economic downturn. those conditions were seen across all business sizes, as well here to weigh in is the chairman and ceo of stifel. before getting into this issue about loan demands and availability, what do you think is going on with the banking system we get the weekly updates, they tell us maybe things have stabilize, but no one kneels great about the situation and there's been no movement on the deposit insurance, at least on the business side. >> the fact that the fdic did come out with a proposal and their preferred proposal was something that i certainly feel is the right one, which is to expand insurance for business deposits but kelly, it's all interrelated the banking system is under some stress and they're under stress because of deposits and, you know, one month that's yielding by 50. you combine that with the failures and the regulatory response and what people are talking about is not making loans. they're talking aboutincreasin liquidity and ma

rick santelli at the cme with more >> hi tyler.ng from t-bills out to 30 year bonds, yields are dropping and not in equal proportions. as you look at intra day of two year, you can see right now it is down about eight basis points or so. and you can see that we've returned from some of the highest yield closes going back to mid march but there are so many moving pieces here. we have votes get to be done on the debt deal. but assuming that it all goes as planned, what happens to supply? that is the big question is there going to be a trillion dollars in ss in t-bills where is janet yellen going to restock the shelves of supply that is much needed to bring the treasury coffers back up to size i'm not sure, but if you look at tens to twos, it is approaching minus 80 the most inverted it has been since march 10 and we all know that ultimately supply is most likely doing to be in the short end, so watching these yield curves is what trartr traders are doing in front of the moves janet yellen probably has in store >> everyone is watching

let's get out to rick santelli live in chicago at the cboe. which are traders more focused on, debt ceiling or elsewhere? >> dom, you know what? in one second i'm going to let you know exactly what those traders think. but before we get to that we had a three-year note auction today. 40 billion of those guys left the treasury coffers around 1:00 eastern. it was an amazingly strong auction. why are investors stepping up in front of cpi, in front of debt ceiling to buy short maturity? if you look at a longer term chart 2s and 3s are the only maturityies that took out in march the high yield from the fall right here, hovering near 1.5 year low pay attention to that. let's do this right. all right, gang. what are we more worried about in the morning cpi? raise your hand. or the debt ceiling? [ boo >> well, i think the answer is quite clear. and to that end let's go to michael. >> hey, rick good to see you. >> thanks for joining me today what do you think? what is the issue to pay most attention to, debt ceiling or cpi? >> i think you got to say cp

the two-year at 4.391% rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago rick, the numbers, please.ervice sector, what most are paying closest attention to, especially the federal reserve and the federal reserve is watching closely, we all need to watch. minus 16 is the may read, minus 16 that compares to minus 22.8 in the rearview mirror. and still unrevised. and what's notable about minus 22.8 is that it was the lowest since dec of 2020. so these levels are not good minus 16 is a pit of an improvement, but do keep in mind, we've only had one positive number going all the way back to july of '22, and that was for the month of february of this year. and that was 3.2 so you can see, the numbers are weak and small, but it is ates, hovering at 375 for a ten-year mostly, that means we're up 31 basis points month-to-date from the closing levels of the last day of last month. on a two-year, it's up 38 basis points month-to-date so we have seen some very, very large moves and, of course, they've pushed mortgage rates higher we're going to be having some housing numbers yet to come out at 1

. >>> getting consumer sentiment let's get to rick santelli hey, rick. >> hello, carl this is importantmoment these are our may preliminary read on university of michigan sentiment. headline expected at 63. big miss, 57.7, the weakest since november of last year. current conditions, expecting 67 and change, 64.5 weakest since december of last year expectations, expecting almost 61 53.4 weakest since july all right. now here's a bit of good news, but not much we're expecting 4.4 on one-year inflation, last look 4.6 came in 4.5. split decision, less than the last look but higher than expectations and here's the one that's the fly in the ointment for rates to potentially get pushed up just a bit 5 to 10-year inflation, moved up to 3.2 that is the highest level since 2008 should the final read be there, and, of course, we know in the last couple weeks of any given month things can change, but it is a bit stickier and hotter on that 5 to 10-year inflation. back to "squawk on the street. >> rick, thank you very much fed is not going to like that. never want to see inflation expectations rise

fresh data crossing the tape rick santelli for it rick >> carl, march read on construction spending expectedt reading of the year next to january where we were up 0.4%. if you look at ism manufacturing, manufacturing ism, wednesday service, ism manufacturing headline 46.8 expected, 47.1 is the number that is the best read since february's 47.7. 53.2 on prices paid, 53.2, is the highest level of prices paid since july of last year. and that is not a good thing if you're monitoring, of course -- excuse me f you're monitoring the federal reserve, the higher prices paid for potentially more aggressive fed you have. that is the highest level but still well off the bigger levels think last year highest level was 87.1 employment week, we'll get employment, 50.2, second best level of the year next to january's 50.6 finally new orders, they remain under 50 they are in contraction mode 45.7 and our last look was 44.3 the best read this year so far is 47.0. that was in february haven't been over 50 since august of last year. you can see interest rates moving up a bit on that prices paid and we will con

chief economist, now at the university of michigan where she is a professor and mike santoli and rick santellis. there are so many issues traders are juggling they're going to pay close attention to the year over year and the progress made, meaning the current cycle low posts the highest year over year headline is the most recent in the rear view mirror, 5.0 the fly in the appointment is the core year over year. 5.6 last time was 0.1 higher than the previous. we want to watch 5.5 on the year over year. >> betsy, anything special we should be looking for within this >> so i think that the complication right now is year over year it's been coming down, but what we've seen is inflation kind of moving sideways over the last few months. the reality is that's what i'm expecting to happen this month we know used car prices are going to come in hot again we know shelter inflation is going to contribute to high inflation. the big news is going to be whether we see inflation hotter in places where we're not expecting it >> tyler, are you holding out hope this is going to be a cooler number or do you thi

let's get started with wholesale inventories and rick santelli. >> yes our march final read on wholesalee mid-month read of up 0.1%, the new read unchanged the previous month was up 0.1%, the final read on february, final march now unchanged. if we look towards the sales side of the ledger, expecting up near half a percent. but not to be, down 2.1%, down 2.1% that is the weakest sales read and i have to go back quite a ways on that april of 2020 when down 2.1%, was covid related and that was down over 16%. a big drop in sales. we need to monitor this as we continue to try to handicap whether the notion of a recession is a realistic outlook considering some of the stronger data points like friday's jobs report sara, back to you. >> thank you we're 30 minutes into the trading session. three movers we're watching, z scale releasing preliminary results. tyson shares slumping after reporting a loss for the quarter. the company also cutting its sales forecast for the year as dealing with falling demand and pricing challenges down almost 13%. we're watching all the regional banks but look at pa

got some fresh data coming out le let's get to rick santelli. >> carl, interest rates started movings ago and they had it correct. if nervous investigaors tried to clear their numbers they might have done a good job jolt for march expected to be around 9.7 million, comes in light, 9, 590, 000 keep in mind we had 9, 031000, lowest amount since may of 2001. 9,530, 000, and it is likely one of the reasons interest rates are moving lower in addition, our march read on factory orders is on the light side up 0.9, expected up 1.2 to 1.3% and a negative revision in the rearview mirror. february stands at minus 1.1, almost double the negative of originally reported down 0.7%. and if you strip out transportation, it is down 0.7 that was from a revised down 0.3 and down 0.7 last month. we are now both months down 0.7 in a row durable good orders, final reads, carl, we take the mid-month read and finalize it, 3.2 remains at 3.2% and that actually is the best reading of the year since december of last year when it was 5.1 if you take out transportation, you could see that plain orders had a huge

publicly traded company the stock is down about 4% >>> let's get some fresh data with existing data, rick santellidicators, down 0.6%. that is the 13th consecutive negative month in a row, which rivals the last big run of negatives which was from mid 2007 to early '09, when you had 24 consecutive negative months in a row we also have april existing home sales out and for that, we aim east to diana he olick diana. >> existing home sales in april fell 3.4% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.28 million units along expectations sales down just over 23% year over year. and realtors are blaming much of it on still tight supply at the end of april there were 1.04 million homes for sale. that is up just 1% from the year before, but at the current sales pace, it represents a 2.9 month supply, six months is considered a balanced market. the median price of a home sold in april was $388,800, down 1.7% from april of last year. but prices are getting very different regionally they were higher in the northeast and midwest, the midwest being the most affordable region. prices fell in the south and wes

nasdaq indicated up by 300, s&p up by 30 rick santelli is standing by in chicago. are expecting some potentially market moving numbers, especially on jobless claims initial claims for the week of may 20th, 229,000. that is well below the 245,000 we were expecting. and of course that's going to keep the fed more on the hot side than the cool side, 2 229,000. to find a lower number, about back to the last week in march when it was 228,000. now, if we're looking at continuing claims, same dynamic, 1.8 million is an important psychological area, becky. we are under it, 1,794,000 second week we are now under 1.8 million after one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight weeks above. and 1.794 million of course may also be something that motivates interest rates to the up side. so we want to pay particularly close attention. now, let's look at gdp this is first quarter. our second time visiting and 1.3. we end up improving 0.2, that's rather dramatic from 1.1 expected to 1.3 and 1.1 was also our first look consumption numbers, we added a tenth at well. that's quite juic

and s&p up about 7 1/2 take a look quick at the ten year note because i want to get to rick santelli,ah, we're expecting a litany, long list of numbers so viewers listeners on the radio, you want to be very patient here and income numbers can be market moving april preliminary, up 1.1% we're expecting down 1% and last month revised up to 2.8. take out transportation. now it drops out 0.2 if you look at capital good orders, a proxy for capital spending, it is up a whooping 1.4% much stronger than we are looking for and in the rear-view mirror, we have minutes 1.1. the 1.4 is significant it's the best level since the end of '21 if we look at shipments versus orders, shipments were up a strong half a 1% personal income and spending for april, expected up 0.4 on income, it delivered the goods, up 0.4 exactly as expected spending better than expected, up 0.8 we were expecting up 0.5 that's the best number since it was up 0.2 at the beginning of the year in january. if we look at real spending accounting for inflation, it's up a half a percent. month over month, up 0.4 of 1% not good that's

rick santelli, the numbers, please >> those interest rates are hovering at one-month highs based on closingims 242,000 that's lighter than expectations, lighter than the 264,000 this the rear view mirror what's notable before any revisions may show up, 264,000 was the highest level since october of '21 so we have moderated a bit and we slipped under 1.8 million on continuing claims. i can hear yields rising on tht that that was a very significant level. we haven't been below 1.8 million since the first week of march, which would be our comp here and last month gets revised a little bit to 1,807,000. it breaks the records after benchmark seasonal revisions that we have now eight above 1.8 million, the streak ends philly fed for the month of may expected to be minus 20 is minus 10.4, minus 10.4 what's notable there is not a good thing but maybe not good things are good if you're looking for the fed to ease back a bit. this is the ninth negative month-over-month change on this outlook. that is not a good streak to have minus 10.4 is the least negative outside of january when we were just short

has been impacting the bond market rick santelli joins us i guess you can find something you can find two-year, those, just two markers, it feels like we're either five ticks above or below either one of those levels for weeks now. so nothing's been happening. >> yeah, as a matter of fact, phil lebeau talking about ryanair's order with regard to boeing, if you show an intraday of tens gets more pop out of the ten-year than many of these stories on the debt ceiling. keep in mind, mainstream media has been pushing the debt story for months and months and months this has been like the centerpiece of financial news. the markets are definitely yawning a bit. you know what the market's paying attention to, joe here's what the markets are paying attention to. small business optimum index is at the lowest level in ten years. through the first seven months of this fiscal year, we have $374 billion to service the debt and we still have a good chunk of the year left let's see, the adoption to ev and the whole fossil fuel phasing out process is going to prove to be -- put the "s" in sticky when i

moderated a little bit but up triple digits on the dow, the s&p and nasdaq there's the yield curve, rick santelliou should right now >> well, i hope so, too, because i'm not a very good tap dancer import prices for the month of april expected to be up 0.3 of 1%, best of that by a tenth, up 0.4 of 1%. that is the best level, bloeliee it or not, going all the way back to may of last year any pressure under this point is probably not a bad thing if you strip out petroleum it moves to down 0.1 and that follows down 0.6 that was the biggest month-over-month drop we had since january of 2015, just for some context there and if you look at year over year, which i think are the most important on import prices, they were down 4.8% that follows down 4.6%, the biggest drop of may of 2020. on a month over month switching to export prices, expecting up 0.2, that's what we have, up 0.2. that's the best number since february we've seen some downward pressure there as well and finally if we look at export prices on a year-over-year basis, expected down 5 1/2%, down almost 6%, down 5.9% and last month's down 4.8

bush our own steve liesman is here, rick santelli is here as well. ngs steve or rick, you want to -- any preamble, last thoughts? >> very quickly, the challenge of data is weak. the question is whether the layoffs catch up with some of the other strength we've seen out there. >> rick? >> earnings. watch earnings 4.2% last time that was the lowest average hour l hourly earning and up .2, i would play very close attention to those particular components, joe. >> jason, i imagine if you were on the fed it would still have been a unanimous decision to go up 25. >> absolutely. it was the right decision. i think it's fine that they're leaving the future open. i think they're going to find this inflation is very stubborn and they're probably going to need to hike one or two more times. i'd be shocked if they cut rates any time soon. >> save the best for palace, nada anything that you think we should be paying close attention to do you think the fed was right to go up another 25? >> i've always said i think the fed has a long way to go i think -- so i do agree

end of last week there were broader rallies than we're used to >> appreciate it >> let's get to rick santelli. there are some signs, interest rates have ticked higher and a move to safety so reversing that should be something that we can pick up. but it isn't huge. we're talking seven to eight basis points in the front end and half that in the longer maturities the bigger issue seems to be some of the dynamics that much of europe is out with may day, we have a big deal coming to the market out of meta they're going to have five different maturities, size is unknown but it's probably going to be rather large and we have initial claims before the jobs reports this week. and it popped to basically the lowest level since spring of '21 and claims pop to the hypest level since november of '21. joe, we went from being afraid of too big to fail banks to having them be the kind of superheros in this forced marriage so to speak in many ways, we ought to be very careful about how we proceed at this juncture and be cognizant of the fact that there's a lot of unknowns. it's much different, as many have sa

welcome back be >> rick santelli has breaking housing data take it away >> we're looking for our aprile vicinity of 1.4 million, seasonally adjusted annualized units, spot on, 1,401,000, exactly as is expected and in the rear view mirror, unrevised 1,420,000. if you look at that as a percentage, it's up a couple of percent from the revision we just received at 1,371,000 permits, 1,416,000, a little light to expectations but very close. a subtle upward revision from last month's 4.13 million to 1.7 million, which means we're down over a percent on permits. interest rates moved noticeably to the upside, maybe a basis point or so, not that big a deal to be frank, i'm not sure it had much to do with what we're witnessing now the big disparity between single family and multi-family. multi-family in march was responsible for at good chunk of the dropoff and that's because multi-family seems to be settling down a bit. it was one of the big driving forces in housing before interest rates really moved up many are considering how interest rates may have affected financing in some of those constr

i want to get over to rick santelli, standing by at the cme over in chicago. ning, andrew the advanced read on retail sales for april hitting the wire, expecting up 0.8 on headline remember, all metrics retail sales have been negative the last two months. we turn it positive, up 0.4% it's about half of what we were looking for, but it sill is the first positive number since january. and in this case, that was up 2.8% in january. that's your comp you still have auto sales, you get up 0.4 so it didn't really change the dynamic and that actually is exactly as expected, in the rearview mirror, we have down 0.4% and of course, it's been negative for two months running. and if we consider, so up 1.9 was january. that's your comp on that now, auto and gas station sales, up 0.6%, triple what we were looking for. and if we look at retail sales control group, which gets plugged into higher up the food chain economic statistics, it's also up nearly double the 0.4% it ends up at 0.7% that follows 0.4% and january was up 1.7, that's our positive comp, the last time these nu

rick santelli standing by. west but ripples being felt all over the place this morning but what are these numbers? >> yes, the banking butter flip-flop effe-- butterfly is wt we call it in chicago. it jumped up to 264,000, 264,000. interest rates are going to fall down on that when was the last time we were that high on initial jobless claims to find a higher time than that would be october 22nd week of '21. so a bit of a ways back. it's actually continuing claims that are more well behaved today, which is the opposite of lately expecting 1.82 million, we is 1, 801,000. continui continuing claims remaining over 1.8 and are not clearing the hurdle higher. ppi for april, up 0.2. if we look at x food and energy, up 0.2 as expected and now the year over year and this is very interesting, what moved the cpi yesterday, year-over-year headline has been moving down consecutively for ten months in a row. will it be 11? is it is 11 months in a row high water mark, 11.7. x food and energy over the year. it's been down 13

. >> that would make sense >> rick santelli standing by at the cme in chicago we got more left in thent? >> i'll go with the oil any day of the week. when it comes to the fdic and what's going on in banking, it does make me nervous especially when the fed chairman of course says all is clear. and i respect that and i'm sure that his heart's in the right place but it really does seem too early to call with respect to energycongratulations new y york, no gas ovens and it's in the neighborhood of expectations it's a nice drop of 70.5 billion in the rear view mirror. it's a first quarter preliminary look, worse than expected, minus 2.7. this is not good that's the special sauce of the economy and it certainly doesn't seem very special. of course when productivity isn't good, unit labor costs usually go higher and that indeed is the case shooting up to 6.3, almost double our last look at 3.2. initial jobless claims, 242,000, that's up from a slightly revised 229,000 originally reported at 230,000. 242,000 is the highest level actually going back to just the week before last when it was at