tyler, back to you. >> all right, rick santelli. thank you very much, rick. >>> coming up, we are heading out to the chips all-in with nvidia. trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, unlocking the power of thinkorswim, the award-winning trading platforms. bring your trades into focus on thinkorswim desktop with robust charting and analysis tools, including over 400 technical studies. tailor the platforms to your unique needs with nearly endless customization. and track market trends with up-to-the-minute news and insights. trade brilliantly with schwab. you can make money the hard way as a bullfighter or a human cannonball... or save money the easy way, with xfinity mobile. existing customers can get a free line of our most popular unlimited plan for a year! not only will you save hundreds but you'll also be joining millions who have connected to america's most reliable 5g network. sure is a lot safer than becoming a stuntman for money. get a free line of unlimited intro for a year when you buy one unlimited line. plus, get

rick santelli is tracking the action from the floors in chicago. rick? >> yes, dom. 64 billion of those five-year notes just hit the street. 4.32%. the issue, the one issue market was hovering around 4.31% and this option at a higher yield and lower price and that takes off on the grade because it's one of the most important aspects of gradient option is how it prices. there was only one component that was among the ten-auction average and that was the direct bidders like insurance companies and mutual funds. 19.7%, that was the best since july of last year, but all of the other metrics were below the ten-option average. i gave the grade of c minus and we had the record sized two-year and the record sized five-year and tomorrow we'll finish off 169 billion and boy, these are good numbers with 42 billion and seven-year note. dom, back to you. >> rick santelli and steve, you had a couple of seconds to take a look at those results in the numbers here. we have seen a drop in price and that's continued throughout the course of the day and this is all amongst

let's see how that's playing out today in the bond market with rick santelli in chicago. rick?s kind of a wide statement, many are using it. i look at all the revisions that go back to 2019, five years, and they were subtle revisions, and that is not a bad thing because many, including myself, were very nervous that changing seasonality's due to a variety of reasons, not the least of which is pre, post, post covid issues in how the world is changed, those seasonality's might be given data points in a highly accurate. so seeing that the cpi didn't spring much, it's a good thing, and the valentine's day surprise will be -- to ppi. this will be next week of course. a day of two year and you can clearly say at 8:30 eastern we have a whole lot of volatility. knee-jerk reaction? rates turned down. that quickly dissipated. you can go all the way to the 30 year bond, see exactly the same dynamic. but maybe the bigger story here is that despite the subtle changes that specifically most traders saw one tenth lower and immediately started buying the market, pushing yields down. but once y

rick santelli in chicago for, us tracking the bond action. hi, rick. >> hi, tyler. about 24 hours, ago everyone was kind of nervous. what a hawkish statement that was. let's see. it would say green is a favorite color inequities and yields are lower. let's look at the today of to your notes, shall we? under yesterday's lows, look at today of ten's under yesterday's lows. keep in mind, we had a lot of cross currents dated today. we had productivity topped but yet a 16 month consecutive months in a row in contraction for i.s. m, meaning under 50. and prices paid was the highest in nine months. that's not a good thing. if you look at a chart starting in december of ten, here a couple things should pop out to you, very fascinating. first of, all we are on pace for the lowest yield close since the 27, the lowest yield close of the year. more than, that we end a 22 at three point 88. we ended 23 at 3.88 and a few minutes ago, guess where we are at? three point 88. i find that very fascinating. if you look at the 2:10 spread right now at minus 33 basis points, it wasn't th

rick santelli. >> hi leslie, let's look back. on tuesday, we had cpi, hotter than expected. it's probably seasonality, probably january. today we have hotter than expected ppi. probably sunspots, right? listen, we can make a lot of excuses, maybe next month it will moderate. right now they're both hotter than expected. and guess what? two year yields, higher on the week. by a lot. -- under four and a half percent last week. not only that, we've taken out cpi high yield, today with ppe i. they haven't quite done. it you see how high they're going. -- they sold under 20 last week. now maybe the most interesting, look at the s&p 500. on track for another record high close. what is going on? let's talk to jim. hi jim. >> how is it going rick? >> is it easy one today, i want you to explain how we see inflation going up, we see growth going down, we see rates going up, and stocks are partying like it's 1999? >> it makes sense. you and i have talked about the word stack flay shin. no one else was talking about it a little bit ago. guess, what restart is east again stickier inflatio

rick santelli. good morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." carl quintanilla and david faber, live for you as always from post nine of the new york stock exchange. take a look at stocks. we're starting a little bit weaker here. down about 0.3% on the s&p. the nasdaq down 0.3%. two sectors higher, health care and information technology, the semiconductors are up, nvidia is up another 4.6%. as far as big cap tech the others are taking a breather minus alphabet. treasuries strong data equals higher yields. 10 year at 4.14, two-year at 4.46. 30 minutes into the trading session. movers we're watching. shares of caterpillar hitting all-time highs after reporting record full-year sales and revenues. strength in the company's energy and transportation business fueling the results. speaking of fresh highs, a number of firms hitting highs, eli lilly, cigna, uber among them. another day in the red for boeing and spirit aerosystems, boeing found more issues with the 737 max jets. much more ahead and details later in the show. let's start with some of the

rick santelli.ot going on here first start quickly with construction spending. for december, up 0.9%. just the best since october of last year. now let's get into it. ism manufacturing, the headline number, 49.1 which means thatis 15 consecutive months below 50. here's the oddity, 49.1, still is the best level since october of '22 when it was 50. that's how weak it has been in manufacturing. okay prices paid. this is not good and this is what markets are going to pay attention to. prices paid for january, expected to be 46.9. that would have been, what, nine in a row below 50. some good celebration there. but it popped all the way up to 52.9 52.9 that's the highest prices paid since april of last year and you want to keep an eye on that one. 52.5 on new orders that is a big surprise we had 17 consecutive below 50s. not anymore. 52.5, that's the best since may of 2022. employment, this is important because we have the big number tomorrow, jobs, 47.1 that means the fourth consecutive month under 50 47

let's get to rick santelli. hey, rick. >> hi, carl.ess inventories for the month of december, expected to be up 0.4%. come in as expected spot on. up 0.4%. what's interesting about this business inventories number is that we now are at the best inventories going back to when was the last time we were up 0.4%. we have to go all the way to august of '22 to find a higher inventory build than that. we had one other up 0.4% exactly that in august of last year. why is this important? because inventories boosting potential gdp figures for the fourth quarter. now, national association of home builders housing sentiment index for february hitting the wires at 48. 48. it is definitely better than expected. since it's under 50 builders confidence is positive. this is the best number going all the way back 48, you have to go back to the last time it was at 50, which is august of '23 to find a number above 50, that would be july of '23 when it was 56. so this is a nice jump, but still, in negative sentiment territory. interest rates aren't much dif

rick santelli, thank you very much. let's turn to ari wald. you think rates are finding a floor here. tell us what you see the bond market telling us. >> sure. rates are finding a floor, and i think that's going to be the action going forward. the stability in the bond market that should support equity prices looking ahead against this not to hot, not too cold backdrop. i think generally, not being an economist, i don't think the fed is in a hurry to cut interest rates for the very reason that the -- >> seems not. >> they want to avoid that 1970 scenario. when they did cut too quickly. so the market is rallying with those expectations, and i think that's historically consist tent. be careful of what you ask for. by the time we cut rates, we could be closer to that rate. >> your view is that the s&p is undervalued below 5400. where do you think the s&p heads from here? >> we like that 5400 level by year end. so round number, 5,000, i think we achieve 5,000 in a very bullish manner. the index has reached a level of 73, that often -- >> what is r

robert, if i could ask you to sit there we've got a hume auction of ten-year notes i want to go to rick santelli. rick, this is, i believe, the biggest single auction of ten-year notes ever, or close to it >> ever. ever, ever, ever, ever we've had one, two, three, four other auctions that were close at $41 billion in 2020 and mid year of 2021 but $42 billion, the size of today's auction, the biggest ever and it went spectacularly well i give it an a minus investors stopped up to buy the debt of the u.s. treasury, and they did it very aggressively. as you look at a two-day chart of tens, you'll see that yields dropped right at 1:00 eastern, 12:00 central when the auction buttoned up. we briefly did a little work under yesterday's low yields, so there was a bias for rates to move down and prices to move up. whether it moves much further below 4.10 is questionable that's a good pivot, but it's a good auction quickly, if you look at the bid to cover, 2.56, that's since february of last year. the indirect, 71% best since august of last year. if you look at direct bidders, it's the only category that

rick santelli has that for us. rick? >> yeah.onfidence from the conference board, headline number expected to be 115. disappointment. 106.7. that's the lightest confidence level going back to november of last year. and last month's january downgraded from 114.8 to 110.9. present situation, 147.2. lighter than expectations. lighter than the rearview mirror which was downgraded and this is the smallest present situation confidence level also since november of last year. finally expectations at 79.8. you guessed it. the weakest since november of last year with a downgrade of january as well. also, richmond fed manufacturing index at minus 5. believe it or not that is the best level since october of last year when it was a positive number, positive 3. finally on the business conditions or the service side minus 7. minus 7 is the weakest going back to november of last year. we see that interest rates are down in the short maturities up a little in the back, reversing the more negative yield curve action of yesterday. and finally at 1:

." >> rick santelli has it for us, rick. >> yes, indeed, david.y readings for university of michigan which means in about a week and a half we'll get the final readings. 79.6 on headline and even though that's less than we expected, that is still the best, the highest form of confidence back to july of 2021. and if we look at current conditions, 81.5. now, definitely lower than our previous and it's lower than expectations. but 81.5 isn't bad because 81.9 in the rearview mirror was the best since july of 2021. expectations, 78.4. the only one of the three that's above expectations and sequentially higher. 78.4 is the best since we have to go back to july of 2021 once again. inflation, 3% on the one-year outlook, now that is the highest since the end of last year when it was 3.1. it has been at 2.9, the lowest since 2021. we have moved away from that by 0.1%. finally 5 to 10-year inflation, 2.9 equals the rearview mirror 110, higher than we were expected, to find a lower form of inflation than 2.9 you have to go back to september of 2022. we see th

rick santelli joins us now from chicago. hi, rick. >> hi, tyler. indeed.t's a hot day and it's due to hot cpi. let's start at the beginning. let's look at year over year core cpi. came out 3 .9%. that's the ten-year chart. nobody thought inflation would be linnier. now, here is the most important chart, in my opinion, and i'll tell you why in one second. this is a year over year cpi core, which they start the index. this is the index that everything is derived from. when you say up .3, down .3, they look three different indexes. this is the year over year core. it started in 1957. today it was 3.14.44, it's never been higher. now here is the rub, okay. you heard all the analysts today, smart economists, erb with one refrain and that is, wow, there's the seasonality, january. it's called a reset of prices. it happens at the beginning of the year prices go up. but don't worry because january and february most likely will moderate. so what they're saying is that that chart i just showed you 314.44, if that goes sideways for the next couple of months, inflatio

rick santelli is live in chicago for us. hi, rick. >> hi, tyler.eed, last week's cpi and ppi both being warmer than expected, remains in the minds of traders and has a lasting impact on the market. now, as you look at the two-week chart ever of two-year maturity and ten-year maturity you can see yields are stubbornlyhigh. last week's data really is the center of attention until we get to the jobs numbers and we are still a couple of weeks away from those. if you look we are within the six basis points of the high yield closes of 2024 with twos and tens. if you open it up year to date. we have the 23rd consecutive negative month over month on leading economic indicators and one month shy of two years and anecdotal evidence of slowing runs right into the notion of strong labor markets even though they've moderated they're much higher than they were pre-covid. finally, there's a lot of talk these days about what's going on with the nikkei's stock market. they're getting close friday within a hundred points of the all-time high close and they moved awa

rick santelli is with the traders in chicago, rick i haven't talked to you in a whole hour. >> i know. i'm going through tyler withdrawal. one thing i'm not going through though is beaumont withdrawal. whether you look at two's, tends, the s&p's, yields are up into,'s yields are up in tents, dollar index is up, other than today the s&p down these are all big moves, how many would've guessed that not that many months ago as a matter of fact when you look at what's going on right now with regard to the s&p, the think that we are whisker under 5000 is the high, harkens back to when we are whisker below 5% and we couldn't quite get to it, which tells us psychological levers are huge, and speaking of which let's go talk to a trader. paul? >> eric. >> has it going? >> good to see you. >> let's start right with it. everybody i'm talking to today has one thing on their mind. cpi benchmark revisions tomorrow, and hy? because it demonstrates that seasonality's are up. there's a lot of data points that aren't telling us exactly the truth about the economy. your thoughts? >> i don't know about th

rick santelli. >>> good friday morn welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street.lla and david faber live from post nine of the new york stock exchange take a look at the stock market right now. the s&p is higher by 0.3%. don't let it fool you. a lot of it is the mega caps communication services, best performing sector, why, meta is up 20% most of the other stocks in that group are lower. consumer discretionary up 1.3% why? amazon up more than 7% these are major earnings movers from the biggest stocks in the market the dow is lower it's being dragged by names hme depot because yields are jumping. treasuries mostly in react slun to the strong jobs report we are seeing the stock in yields, 10-year above 4% 30 minutes into the trading session, movers that we are watching as i said, mega cap tech front and center, meta, amazon, apple making moves on the latest earnings what to do with these stocks straight ahead cigna shares are rising. the health care services company beating earnings estimates, raising its dividend by 14%. two consumer names to watch. deckers outdoor

rick santelli is tracking the action from the floor at the cme. rick, over to you. >> yes, dom.t of breed. we had $42 billion seven years. not a record like the last two auctions in terms of size is. maybe the smaller size was a big help, because the yield of those 42 billion seven years, 4.327%, pretty much spot-on, which means pricing didn't help or hurt, but didn't hurt is maybe the operative phrase. if you look at all the metrics, we have really solid bid to cover, the best since august of last year. 69.6 on indirect. those are foreign purchasers, the best since october of last year. we were definitely light. weakest since october of 2020 on direct bidders. you know the large institutions, pension funds, insurers? that's surprising, and dealers took a little more than the ten option average. so b and in boy. the previous two auctions were average auctions. we want to continue to monitor, and let's get it straight, folks. i'm not saying when we give good or bad grades for demand at auctions that it's going to poison the well for all the auctions and all the paper we need to i

let's get down to rick santelli for the bond market action. rick, this will be on my show tonight, 7:00 p.m. eastern, 6:00 central. there's $10 trillion of debt, in maturity this year. $10 trillion. do we have enough buyers for that? >> that is the big question. this year, it's 10 trillion, next year, you are going to see the same scenario, as we have many different securities throughout the system that are going to be, of course, maturing. you have to reload, and reloading with higher interest rates, we are not exactly sure how that's going to treat the businesses, and we will not accept the sure how investors are going to respond to the need for businesses to issue more for the expiring paper. now, if you look at today, we had some big data points out. ism, tmis, headline number, 53.4 , just go to august of last summer to find a better number. really, it was more about the prices paid component prices paid comes in at 64, and remember, if you look at june 30th of last year, we reached a three-your bottom on prices paid all the way back to the

rick santelli here, live on the floor of the cboe with a special guest today. pic, munis. dan, welcome. what a great trading floor. >> awesome. thank you for having me, rick. >> 2024, a lot of things are different. one of the big differences, especially in the muni space, is the flows are starting to look a little more aggressive. maybe you can tell me what investors are looking at to make it less volatile and more optimistic with regard to inflows. >> we've seen $4.5 billion in inflows this year, which is great, especially given the volatility we saw in 2022, 2023. but i think investors are taking a step back, looking at the tax exempt market and saying i could get more yield on a tax equivalent basis by being in munis than in mortgages, by being in corporates, agencies, and i think they're looking at that and say i want to lock in yields right now. we're at the highest level in yields to start the year since 2011. >> this isn't necessarily about an election year, 2024, maybe current tax policy that may change the next several years. just on the surface right n

let's get to rick santelli for a look how this is playing out in the bond market. k. >> yes. it really was weak. i was there at 8:30 eastern. we were bringing out the numbers. down 6.1% on our preliminary january durable goods. but there's a lot of asterisks that go along with this. when you stripped out transportation, especially the aircraft component, it became down .3%, which isn't good and less than expected but shows you where the dynamic was. it wasn't only that. consumer confidence. let's start out with the two-year note. look at a two-year note, that 8:30 eastern data came out that tyler was referencing how weak it was, when do you think the low yield was on 2-year note yields, exactly at the time that 8:30 eastern data was coming out. now we also had other events today at 1:00 p.m. eastern. we had the last tranche of 169 billion in supply in the form of 42 billion 7-year notes. the smallest auction wasn't really up sized very much. it was 20 billion less than the biggest auction where the other two were the biggest and it went very well. and if you look at

rick santelli reporting for us. >>> in the meantime, coming up, from chile to mexico and all the way to your. of chinese car brands are exploding in popularity. we will look at why, next. plus, still to come on the program, an in-depth look at an issue that affects one in ten people in the u.s.. rare diseases and conditions. chances are, you know somebody afflicted. so on this rare disease day, we want to shine a spotlight on the people, the industry and treatments that are out there. and they may be coming. we will be right back. rylee! from rylee's realty! hi! this listing sounds incredible. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. we mean it. amazing. all my agents want it. says here...“inviting pool”. come on over! too inviting. only at&t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone. get iphone 15 pro on us. (♪♪) municipal bonds don't usually get the media coverage the stock market does. in f

a check on the bond market and you know what that means, rick santelli tracking the action in chicagonumbers this morning, retail sales, if you look at a chart of retail sales, the month over month change was the weakest since march of last year. we will call it 10 months. but the whisper number was on the weak side as many traders were expecting us to take back some of the strength we saw at the end of last year retail sales for covid , even though we are dropping a bit, the spikes have run out, the government money running out, the spikes in 2021 and a small one at the beginning of 2023, much more normalized like before covid. cpi tuesday through the lens of a two year yield, we have come down and getting back in those ranges. that session, all treasury yields closed at 2024 high yields and they are still affected by that and have not slid very far below those levels . pay close attention to the cpi /inflation affect, especially before the number tomorrow. if we look at what has been going on with the 10 year, let's open up the chart year to date, barely off of the tuesday high-yiel

i don't think we have time to formally do that i'm going to send it over to our good friend rick santellibs report, jobs, jobs, jobs, '24 is out and it is -- whopper 353,000. 353,000. we have to go on the way-back machine. the biggest non-farm payroll gains since january of '23 when it was 472,000 and if we look at the unemployment rate, it is 3.7 and remained at 3.7, and just for history's sake, the 3.4 low we had was lowest since 1953. that was an april of last year if we look at the average hourly earnings, a huge jump. up 0.6%. up 0.6%. and equals march of '22. find a higher go to january of '22 and also for some context there, the amount of year over year is also popping 4.5% we were expecting 4.1% the year over year average hourly earnings began as a data set in 2007. pre-covid, all the way to when it started, the high was 3.6%. it's 4.5%. 4.5 highest level back to february of '23. if we look at the average workweek, 34.1 that is a drop it's been at 34.3 or 34.4 going all the way back pretty much to beginning of last year. so that dropped 34.1 i don't even know if i have a record go

. >> thank you >>> got manufacturing and services pmi crossing the tape let's get to rick santelli goodng, rick >> good morning, carl. indeed, it's going to be a one out of three with regard to these pmis from s&p global the best one out of three is 51.5 for headline manufacturing. it's higher than we expected, and it's higher than the rear view mirror. now, this is preliminary in a couple weeks it will getting modified, but 51.5 is the best reading since november of last -- excuse me, september of '22 now, the next two services and composite, they're both below expectations and below last look for a final read on january, 51.3 on services that's the weakest level since november of '23 and if you look at the composite, at 51.4, same dynamic. lower than expected, lower than the previous read. also, the weakest since november of last year we see that interest rates have come down off of the jump they had, which really was, in essence, the 7:30 eastern release of the ecb minutes pushed race up a bit, but boy, they are coming down from the highest yield close that we had yesterday in twos a

rick santelli has that for us. rick? >> yes, leslie., this is our january read on l.e.i. leading economic indicators, and it came out a little worse than expected. down 0.4%. but what's notable is, this makes 23, two three, consecutive negative month over month changes in a row. 23 in a row. down 0.4, follows down 0.2 which was originally released down 0.1 and down 0.2 is actually the least negative number we've had going all the way back to when it was only down 0.1 in march of 2022. so that's how weak it is. granted l.e.i. isn't many traders' favorite indicator but it does speak volumes regarding softness in various parts of the u.s. economy. interest rates are down across the whole curve except for 30-year bonds, they're slightly higher yields but near unchanged. leslie, back to you. >> rick, thank you. thanks for following that important indicator for us. we are 30 minutes into the trading session here are three big movers we are watching. you may have heard of this consumer finance deal. capital one financial is buying discover fin

. >> let's get to rick santelli. we have some more economic data for the markets to digest. o pmi, rick, right >>> yeah, chicago pmi and it's a february read, david, and we're expecting a number around 48, a miss here. 44.0 happens to be the weakest level since july of '23 and a little noteworthy here is this is the 18th month where we've only had one reading over 50, and that was in november of last year 18 months with only one read above the expansion-contraction line of 50 now, we have important data out this morning, and if you look at intraday chart, the initial response in yields, it went from 4.30% to around 4.27%, but it simmered a bit, yields moving much lower now as you look at the two-day chart. we're below yesterday's low yields it seems the data coming utmostly as expected over time, seems to have a more soothing effect on interest rates and potentially isn't a negative for the fed. "squawk on the street" will return after a short break you know doug, ever since switching to workday you've been a real rock star. rock star? what do you know about rock stars? billy

. >> let's get to rick santelli. good morning. >> good morning, carl.es for the month of january expected to be 684,000 seasonally adjusted annualized units, comes in a bit on the light side at 661,000 units. last month downgraded from 664,000 to 651,000. maybe the most important issue to remind viewers is the last time we were over 700,000 was in july of last year. we remember last week rates back above 7% as we saw in the mortgage surveys and new homes, they may be exactly the sweet spot considering those who already own homes don't seem anxious to be taking out new higher mortgages. two auction today, $63 billion two-year at 11:30 eastern, $64 billion five-year at 1:00 eastern. debt is the big story these days and for a deeper look at new home sales, let's go to diana olick. diana? >> a clear miss. look, the december number was revised down significantly, so even though we had a pop up in percentage in january, it's much lower than expected. the price down 2.6% year over year on a newly built home in january and 8.3 is up from 8.2. an interesting num

that said, we are getting wholesale inventories and we'll get to rick santelli.ies and trade aren't usually super exciting but this time might be different. our december trade number on the wholesale side up 0.7%, up 0.7%. that's the biggest jump since september of last year. it does highlight the issue of how we've gone back and forth on many of these inventory issues trying to sus both demand moving forward and overstocking looking backward. on the inventory side, carl, this is a december final read and that means that the mid month read, which was up 0.4% gets tossed out and replaced with 0.4%. remains the same. it's a reversal of last month when it was down 0.4%. neutralizes out. these are december numbers, so the trade sales number and the inventory number may pack a little more wallop into our gdp revisions we get for the fourth quarter. just one side note, of course, at 1:00 eastern, 25 billion 30-year bonds coming up completing $121 billion in supply. back to you. >> can't wait for that. long bond option. 30 minutes into the trading session, three big mov

rick santelli standing by at cme in chicago. take it away, rick. >> yes. jobless claims 215,000.e beginning of february. on continuing claims, 1 million 905,000 and finally crossed over 1.9 million. that's highest read since the third week in november. now, the money numbers. personal income for january up 1%. up 1%. you know what's fascinating here? last january, guess what? we started out up 1%. and last january that was the highest level going all the way back to july of '21. we're equal in january. this number, once again, could take you back to july of '21. that is is a whopper of a spending jump or income jump, excuse me, on spending, up 0.2 exactly as expected. real spending negative when ajufrtded for inflation. down 0.1%. and down 0.1% equal what's we had in august of last year to find the lower number you have to go to march of 2023. now, let's get into it. the deflator, personal consumption deplayter month over month up 0.3%. exactly as expected, rearview mirror, 0.2 becomes 0.1. on the 0.3 side highest level since september of last year. something to pay attention to.

rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago. rick, numbers, please?onds. all yields are a built lower, and here we're hitting the wires. headline number expected to be up 2/10 of a percent, is up 3/10 of a percent. that's the hottest when it was up 4/10 of a percent. strip out food and energy, even hotter. up 4/10 of a percent. hat hotter than expected, up 4/10 of a percent, when you equal that going to may of last year, you surpass it going to april of last year, when it was up 0.5. the year over year numbers, also hotter, 3.1 on headline year over year, we are expecting 2.9, but did make progress versus the rearview mirror, which stands at 3.4. now, if you consider 3.1, we've already been there. we were up in november of last year, and we were at 3.0 in june of last year. finally, cpi year over year core, i think one of the ones i'm paying most attention to, 3.9%, exactly as the recent month, december, 3.9. 0.2% hotter than expected and 3.9 is the smallest year over year change since it was 3.8 in may of '21. now, i don't always hit some of these in

. >>> meanwhile, rick santelli is standing by from cme in chicago, breaking economic data. quarter gdp. last look was 3.3. lose 0.1% moving to 3.2% on consumption. exact opposite. ramped it up from 2.8 in the rearview mirror. expectations dropped a bit. instead increases to 3%. 3%. that's solid. if you recall, 3.1% was the final q3 of last year. moving in good territory. an important number. on the pricing index, moved up instead's down. expecting it to remain 1.5. the smallest since second quarter of 2020 but it moves up to 1.6%, and finally, look at price index from a corporate pce quarter over quarter, 2.1. also 0.8 more than expected. 2% the last two quarters. 2.1, of course, a smidge higher. comp moves towards 3.7 second quarter last year. on the trade balance, which, of course, a deficit. minus 90.2 billion grew a bit. as a matter of fact, right now that would be the lightest deficit going back to july of last year, and now we have inventory. these are january inventories which means they're going to be numbers that potentially add or subtract from the current quarter

rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago. we've got breaking news. lintny of, start out with retail sales. expected to be down 0.2%. it's been running pretty hot lately. well, we ended up with down 0.8%. that is the biggest drop since march of last year when it was down 0.9. follows up 0.6, the third strongest number of 2023. in terms of month over month change. now, if we strip out autos we could see that it still remains highly negative. minus 0.6. triple what we were expecting and strip out autos and gas, it's still down 0.5%, and once again that is the weakest month over month since march last year when it was down 0.8. the core of control group put it into, up the food chain economic sticks doubled. minus 0.4%. that is weakest since march of last year. now, let's go to initial continuing claims, shall we? expecting 220,000. 212,000. that's down 8,000 from a revised 220,000 and continues to remain rarp rare tame even sub200,000 reads. historically a very good number. look at continuing claims. move up higher than expectations. 1 million 895,000.

rick santelli breaking news of the day. start with housing starts. 1 million 331,000. a big miss.ast year and on permits 1 million 470. down about 1.5% also a miss. now, for the money numbers. our january readout producer price index. inflation as the whole sale level. headline numbered expected up 0.1%, it's up 0.3%. the hottest going back to up 0.4%, september of last year. now, there was a revision, of course. we all know. ppi had benchmark revisions just like cpi. last month is down 0.2%. down 0.2%. look at x food and energy known at core expected up 0.1. buckle up! up half of 1%. up 0.5%, half of 1%. hottest. go back a bit. hottest since -- well, march of '22, although a couple other up 0.5s in april and may of '22. also we had revision down 0.1 last month that was already out. x food energy and trade, wow! up 0.6%. 0.6% up. equals jan of '23 to find a higher one. have to go to the high-water mark. the high-water mark for this series, march of '22. look at final demand year over year, up 0.9. also hotter than expected. in the rearview mirror is 1%. up 0.9. the warmest. obviou

rick santelli here live at cmhq a fourth quarter preliminary number up 3.2%.g a rather juicy up 5.2% third quarter, which was the best going back to the third quarter of 2020 but a nice pop and look at unit labor costs, less than half of expectations 1.2 expected half of 1% is what we end up with half of 1% in context to last month, which was minus 1.2 so to reach half 1% go into the quarter before second quarter '23 up 2.6% you see right now that yields continue to be under a little bit of pressure, but not far from unchanged initial claims, 12,000 more than expected 224,000. we're expecting 212,000. that follow as slightly revised 215,000 placing it up 9,000. 224,000 is the hottest since the second week of august. second week of august. you have to go back a ways to find claims up at that level, which really is a testament how well behaved they've been and continuing claims? they definitely are more than expected getting ever closer to 1.9 million. 1 mill 908,000 1 million 898,000, excuse me -- would be the highest level only best if looking for claims to go

rick santelli standing by at the cme in chicago take it away. >> yes thank you.maller than the rearview mirror which was 63.2, which was just revised to 61.9 so these falling trade deficits may auger for bolsters of fourth quarter gdp. you recall advance on gdp was up 3.3% so the fact that these deficits are getting a bit smaller for november and december could figure in to make exports a little greater than imports, which could give a little more economic horsepower. $42 billion auction the off at 1:00 eastern auctions are super important to monitor these days, because debt continues to grow. becky, back to you >> all right rick, thank you very much. >>> in a new essay this week minneapolis fed president neel kashkari said the fed has time to monitor before cutting rates. less risk the two tight monetary policy will derail this economic recovery neel joins us now and thank you for being here today. a lot of questions in the market after jay powell went on the, chairman of the fed went on "60 minutes" over the weekend talking about how those rate cuts basically d

rick santelli here and cme hq live breaking news of the morning.cted, expected potentially 216,000 note, 201,000. 201,000. that is the lightest, well, since january when we were 189,000, and that was lightest going all the way back to 182,000 and that was in september of '22 and the reason i bring that up is the next to that 1969. looking continuing claims 1 million 862,000. it's a little bit light. rearview mirror, downgrade 1 million 895 to 1 million 889 and that is significant, because 1 million 895 before the revision, that was the biggest, highest, since november of last year and i think the reason that that's so important, of course, is that we missed 1.9 million mark now, you see yields moving a bit higher i think moving higher is they continue to be well-behaved. drum roll, please. saying this a while. nikkei over 39k. i remember working at drexel when we were trading and puts on it december '89 wondering if it would shoot through 39,000 it didn't, of course only had to wait what? 34 years of course, minutes to the ecb, 7:30 eastern this mo

rick santelli, economic numbers, please. >> since its thursday, initial and continuing claims.s in at 218,000. that follows at least up until this point unrevised 224,000. continuing claims week in arrears, 1 million 871,000. close to expectations. last week on initial claim0 hig. so that puts us down 9,000 on l claims. and 1 million 871,000 versus last week's adjusted 1 million 894,000. slightly lower see ksequentiall lower knissing the 1.9 million mark. last time there third week in november. highest level going all the way back to november of '21. quickly. 30-year auction today $25 billion. not the highest ever as the ten year was yesterday. had 427 billion options right post-covid. see down 0.8 on year over year cpi in china. worst in 15 years and, hey, everybody celebrating nikkei still 2000 below. 1989 high. so, joe, back to you. >> that is unbelievable. you're right. 1989. still below. >>> coming up, gaming and a.i. in focus. first interview with ceo david baszucki. stay tuned. we're coming right back. hm? you! your business bank account with quickbooks money, now earns

rick santelli here, live at cme hq with the breaking news of the morning.uary preliminary look on durable good orders. we're expecting down 5% and it is worse, it is down 6.1%. that is the biggest negative mo month-over-month percentage change since april of 2020, the dark covid years. and if you look in the rearview mirror, the unchanged of last month now becomes down 0.3. the reason this is specifically important to look at the last few months and how far down it's gone is november, the previous month, was up 5.54, which was the best since july of 2020. so basically, what's happened is, we had this big artificial boost of growth at the end of last year, and it's all dissipating plus more beginning of this year. it's preliminary, it could change. ex-transportation. it's down 0.3%. that's a half a% lower than we expected. but it does underscore where the most negative aspect of the headlines came from, transportation aircraft. down 0.3%, equals in october. you have to go to april of '23 to have a bigger change. capital goods, ex-aircraft, a proxy for capita