rick santelli is tracking the action hey, rick. >> hi, tyler, indeed seeing more buying than sellingushing rate downs but as the session goes on, seeing a little bit less buying and a bit more selling, pushing yields towards the higher end of today's range, especially in short maturities, like the 3 year note which we just auctioned off 58 billion of to kick off the first leg of the may refunding, which would total 125 billion, 3s, 10s and 30s as you look at that chart, you can see that we are now back to the yield levels that we had about 9:00 this morning. but we didn't get a whole lot of volatility at 1:00 p.m. eastern, post auction we're seeing some of the gains in the equity market slip away in the dow and the s&p. nasdaq had some red. now, if you open the chart up for 3 year for one month, something interesting shows up we are on pace for the lowest yield close of the 3 year since the 9th of april matter of fact, let's throw the whole cast in. tomorrow we have 10s thursdays we have 30s. let's show 3s, 10s and 30s all on one chart for one month they're all on pace for the lowest

we go over to chicago and rick santelli. over to you. >> thank you.nd leg of our funding in terms of the long coupon maturities. today's tenure was a mediocre option. if you look at the chart, starting earlier this morning, you could see that we have moved a bit higher in yield since the option at 1:00 eastern. only by a basis point or so but it is important because as you look at a one-month chart, yesterday's was the lowest close going back a month to the ninth of april. we are coming up a bit. it has technical significance because it is a around a psychological level. last night, 3:30 a.m., the sweetest central bank lowered rates from 4% to 3 3/4. this is important. that is the first time they have lowered rates in eight years and they have now had four consecutive quarters of contraction so technically, they are definitely in a recession. back in the old days, we call a depression. their inflation rate, their most recent march cpi was 4.1% year-over-year. even though that is a two year low, you can do the math. they are definitely propensity to lo

rick santelli, over to contessa brewer for our cnbc news update. >>> the white house says the united directly engaging with israel over its seizure of associated press equipment earlier today. israel also shut down a live shot of gaza amid its war with hamas. israeli officials say the ap broke its law by supplying images to al jazeera, one of thousands of ap customers. prime minister benjamin netanyahu previously has called al jazeera a terror channel. >>> new york's high court upheld a controversial abortion law today that religious groups vowed to take to the supreme court. that measure requires companies with health insurance plans to cover medically necessary abortions. the group's claim the law violates their religious freedoms. >>> and the biden administration plans to release a million barrels of gas from a northeast reserve in a push to lower gas prices this summer. the energy department says it will strategically release the fuel between memorial day and july 4th to gasoline can flow during the busy travel season. gas prices right now sitting about $3.60, according to aaa es

rick santelli. and the j.o.l.t. ntioned significant there, the lowest openings number since 2021. obviously the high openings a sign of just how much job availability there is in this jobs market and how strong it has been and firm it has been. so the fed is paying attention to that number we have the adp private sector read on jobs today 192,000 jobs added during the month that was better than expected, doesn't change the calculus. big job growth continues to be in the services part of the economy. 142,000 added there for april, less than goods. and the large employers, large companies are doing most of the heavy lifting or a lot of the heavy lifting in terms of job growth but nice to see they are adding jobs across the board one other interesting number to look at in wage inflation is the change in pay, job stayers the change is 5%, and for job changers which is where you get the big pay bump, 9.3% is still a high number but better than the -- at least it's not as high as the 10% that we saw in the march number so

let's get back to rick santelli. > yeah, and services pmi popped the ten-year back above 4.5%. these are april final. we take the mid-month read and toss it. 50.9 now becomes 51.3 on the services. that's still the weakest level, actually, since november of '23, but it is the tenth consecutive month above 50. lot of differences between services and manufacturing. if we take the composite, it was at 50.9 mid-month, moves up to 51.3, same as the services. that's the weakest since december, but it still remains 15th consecutive month above 50. and as we sit here at 4.78, we're down 21 basis points on a two-year and on the ten-year, which just popped up briefly above 4.5% at 4.49%. it's down 17 basis points on the week. we still have more data at the top of the hour. ism, services. "squawk on the street" will return after a short break. the all new godaddy airo helps you get your business online in minutes with the power of ai... ...with a perfect name, a great logo, and a beautiful website. just start with a domain, a few

we'll also welcome in rick santelli and bumpus any. why don't i just go to you, rick, and get your quick thoughts? >> there's been some voluntarily in the two-year, the five year, the 10 year, the 30 year and the dollar index but net-net out of the volatility we saw appealed, down yield. we are virtually at the same spot as before steve read the statement. we are starting to drift a little lower and i think that speaks volumes. interest rates have come down from some of the peak levels earlier today but thereupon the year, very close to some of the highest, and if you go back to the last meeting in march, we are significantly higher than we were then. i think the salient feature here is simple. we have a stagflation every environment. growth isn't bad but it is definitely moving a bit lower. the glide path seems to be lower and we know there is not only sticky inflation, there's pockets of inflation that are going up, even though we seem to read that so quickly nobody could hardly hear. but i go back to the same old song and dance, okay

. >>> bond yields are rising rick santelli joins us with more. >>> higher versus the lowest yield yesterdayed, that's a momentum builder. >> labor is looking good. >> i think some of the things that people aren't looking at is it's a big option expiration, and there's a lot of open interest there on the downside puts when it doesn't materialize, that means positive flows for the market you have three holidays in the next month memorial day, but now we have juneteenth falling on a wednesday, breaks on, thursday, july 4th, op ex after that so it creates a lot of drama and charm, but flowing that come back into the market, so that supportive ball is very -- it will be choppy with there is, but i think that is the biggest story. we have a slow summer, with low liquidity. >> and when you have vol is well supplied, i did put an easier spin on some of that for some viewers, if you looked at the volume, open interest, it's most affected by the first 15 minutes and last 15 minutes of trade, a majority of that gets done, doesn't it >> it does, and a lot of compression coming in during those times, wh

. >>> rick santelli is out in chicago tracking the action. >> it's the last option, the long zest maturity, and the smallest in size at $25 billion, also the best of breed the yield 4.635, the one issued market right at the end of the dutch auction process was trading 4.642. so, it was in the basically 0.75 of a basis appoint, so pricing was good all the metrics were quite stellar, except for one. did it cover better than a ten auction? direct bidders, almost at 20%, those are insurance companies, and the dealers taking less than a -- the only light spot was indirect bidders, including foreign interests. it really was best of breed. a-min news is what i gave it 30-years bonds, you can see the yield is falling kell about, back to you. >>> a sigh of relief thank you, rick. >>> you heard the sounds of weakness there from lidl's ceo the utilities sector was the only s&p sector in the green in april, and it's off to a start again. it's up is 1% year to date, and not traditionally a great sign at the same time, we're seeing some of the growthy names following. we mentioned shopify earlier, could

. >>> now, what's happening today with bond yields, rick santelli in chicago has more of that story.om, a double whammy no the market one, initial jobless claims going back to august they popped at 231,000, the highest level since the end of august let's call it an eight-month pop. when that happened, one of the things, one of the markets paying close attention was the dollar index looked the way it fell as initial claims popped. and, if we look at what's going on with respect to the dollar index, well, let's look at other majors even though the dollar was down here, it was the yen that was down against the dollar, the pound and, of course, the euro currency you see that chart starting at the beginning of the month of april, and how, after testing the 160 level, all the currencies are starting to rally against the yen. we want to pay close attention to that because of the rumor the intervention and what the half life of that was and it was best of brief, $25 billion. when it hit the wires at 1:00 eastern, i gave it an a minus for the grade. we know that chairman powell says that's on

discussion with neel kashkari and austan goolsbee and see how the bond market is reacting let's turn to rick santelli i'd like to tell you that the market had a large response to that wonderful interview, but really the market didn't move much and it makes sense. there wasn't anything there that you could bite into that would give you a more accurate time line of what the fed may or may not do in the future but to me, that is the whole point. they don't know. and that is the way it is. but one thing we did learn at the top of the hour is if you are looking at how much it costs to service the debt on a monthly basis, it is up 35%. to $102 billion. let's annualize that over 12 months maybe that is one of the reasons interest rates have turned up a bit. but i'm getting ahead of myself. let's look at the early morning data here is a look at one year inflation as evidenced by the university of michigan survey. this shows that we are now turned back up to levels we've seen in november of last year. which is not that far back that is not the point. the point is and the in the context of the interview steve

let's get to rick santelli hey, rick. >> yes, jobless claims were well behaved, and interest rates didn'tup much. they're coiling, but this number, look at interest rates pop. s&p global, pmis, stronger than expected manufacturing, 50.9. that's just the highest since march, when it was 51.9, but let's look at services services at 54.8 the best since may of last year. we'll call it one year now, these are preliminary readings they can change. and if we look at the composite, another blockbuster. 54.4 that's the best reading since april of '22 we'll call that basically two years. so, we are now up close to 4.47% in the ten-year, which is four basis points now higher than it was yesterday after trading below yesterday's low. it's now above yesterday's high. that's an outside day. pay attention, technicians, and "squawk on the street" will return after a short break >>> take a look at nasdaq 100 gainers this morning the nvidia effect with nvidia at the top of the list. not far behind, though, is asml, amd, micron, qualcomm, broadcom, kla and a lot more s&p hanging on to 5314 off the opening h

betting in that state and fallout ahead on the show as well >>> let's get conference board with rick santellick. >> hi, carl. these are our may read for conference board consumer confidence, expecting a number around 96 on the headline. buckle up, a significantly higher number. 102.0. now, before everybody stops exhaling, let's put a face on this last month's 97 moves to 97.5. 97.5 the weakest since july of '22 the new number pops all the way up to 102, but it's still only the strongest number since march, when we were at 103.10 which underscores how weak last month's drop was now if we look at the present situation, 140.6, by the way, was the weakest number since november of last year, pops up to 143.10, the strongest number since march because we had such a big drop last month. finally expectations, 74.6 that's the best number since february, not march, and last month's 66.4 becomes 68.2, which is still the weakest number going back to july of '22. to sum it up we're seeing interest rates pop up a little bit because the numbers are better than expected, but it's coming from a significantly

let's get to rick santelli with that data. rick? >> yes.ot only do i have a special gu guest, but today's jobs number was less than expected. the interest rates along the curve went lower, but they have since borm bottomed and the reason they bottomed is my guest. jim bianco. we haven't had a live interview with over four years. welcome back. what are your thoughts about the jobs market? >> good to be back. the jobs market were good for the market. it showed that, you know, the restraint that everybody thought backed off -- we've got jobs, but not too many jobs. probably the best part of the report was labor costs fell two-tenths up and on a year over year basis, they're down 4%. the market got what it wanted. it got growth and backing off with inflation, and that's why you saw a rally. >> that's the first time we are under 4% since mid-june of 2021 on the year over year average hourly earnings, and something else happened at 10:00 eastern, right? >> that's right. we got the ism services prices paid. that's their measure at 59. this follows

let's bring in rick santelli. how did it go, rick?you know, a little better than yesterday's five-year, but not by much. 44 billion in seven-year notes, completing $183 billion in coupon supply from the treasury. the yield, 4.65. the one-issue market, well, 1.5 basis points lower than that, which means it tailed, not good. and every metric was below the ten auction average. the ones that stand out, 2.43 bid to cover the week since april of '23. dealers take 17% versus 14% ten auction average, the worst since november of '23. d minus -- excuse me, i gave it a d plus. yesterday was a d minus. as you look at the charts, a couple things jump out. we keep moving up all day, and seven-year doesn't look as aggressive a selloff pushing the rates off as the longer maturities like 10s and 30s. it's on pace for a one-month close in high yield 7s. if you look at the chart, right now with the ten-year solidly above 4.5, with the 30-year floating with 4 3/4, and the fed on hold potentially, many think the two-year will be glued to 5%, and all the a

the two-year yield holding just below 5% rick santelli has the details. y, rick. >> yes not only that, short majorities, two year, three year, they're leading rates down post fed meeting. let's look at a two-day chart of the two-year note. currently at 4 h.88, down eight basis points on the session. the right is lower than the left two-day chart. the 30-year bond is down three basis points and the right side is actually a little higher than the left side because we have not traded under yesterday's lows in the longest maturity there's definitely a curve implication. that makes sense the fed, for all practical purposes, was not very hawkish, and that's why short maturities are leading rates down now, if you look at the ten year, down about six basis points, it is on pace right now for a three-week lowyield close. going back to the 12th of april, as you see on the chart. what's maybe more important if you're really trading interest rates is the look at the year-to-date chart of the said ten year currently, and its current yield of 4.58, it is up almost three

let's get to rick santelli for those numbers. f time there's surprises here don't be surprised if interest rates move higher. the university of michigan sentiment preliminary may reading, expected to be in the high 70s, comes in light at 67.4 we're expecting the number closer to 67 -- 76.5 this follows 77.2, really big miss now, all the numbers i'm giving you including the headline are all the extremes since november of last year so this is the weakest since november of last year. current conditions, 68.8 we were expecting 9. in the rearview mirror 79 weakest since november of last year expectation, 66.5. a big miss expecting 75.5 this is also the weakestsince november of last year. now here's what's going to push rates higher one-year inflation ticked up from 3. 2 to 3.5, highest since november of last year. 5 to 10-year inflation from 3% expected, 3%, last month, 3.1. highest since you guessed it november of last year. granted these are surveys and whether it's the household survey for employment and jobs or this, surveys make m

outlook also falling short of estimates >>> let's gets factory orders on a busy day for data with rick santelliorders fresh march numbers and durble goods if we look at 1.6 expected of factory orders that's what arrived 1.6. 1.6 happens to be the best level since november of last year. we did see a subtle downward revision to last month which was 1.4, becomes 2.8 excuse me 1.4 becomes 1.2. factory orders ex-trans, up 0.5% more than double the expectations and up 0.5% follows up 1.1%. don't see any revises as of yet. now durable good orders, these are march finals mid-month read 2.6, it remains exactly at 2.6, and 2.6 was the best level since november of last year. ex-transportation, also remains exactly the same, up 0.2 and up 0.2, the best since november of last year. now, let's take capital good orders nondefense ex-air a proxy for capital spending up 0.1, which half of what we looked at in the mid-month read 0.2. switch from orders to shipments it is 0, unchanged it was 0.2 mid month so that gets downgraded a bit. of course last month was minus 0.6, even though it's unchanged it's better tha

plus >> better than what we thought or the bears thought we would be >> right >> let's bring in rick santelli. the five-years just went off rick is tracking the action. how did it go, rick? >> i had to hold my nose on this one. this is one of the nastier auctions i've seen in 2 1/2 months it was 77 billion five years, which equals the auction last month. both are the biggest in history for that maturity at 70 billion in size. 4.553 is what the yield was, which is 1.5 basis points higher in yield than the one-issue market higher yield, lower price, government was the seller, priced horribly and the metrics were weak. the bid-to-cover was the weakest since september of '22 indirect bidders, it was the only metric that was near the ten auction average. direct bidders was the weakest well, i found a bunch of 15.4%, but to find one lower, you have to go back to december of '21 and the dealers, taking a whopping 19.5% now, grant it, that's just the most since january of this year. but other than that, you would be hard pressed to find much bigger percentages for the dealers to get stuck with, becau

. >> rick santelli has that for us >> hi, mike.ading indicators, coming into this number 25 of the last 26 months have been negative, now make that 26 out of the last 27. minus 0.6%. the weakest or biggest negative month over month change since last year and put perspective on this, we've had two positive numbers, february of this year, and february of '22, in between, and after this past february, all negative. granted l.e.i. has historically long streaks of trending negative or positive, but this one, this one is a biggy. if we look at interest rates, right now we're hovering right below 4.40 in the 10. up 2 basis points on the 10, down 10 on the week. two years down 8 on the week and one of the forces in the equity markets the perspective of the fed still may haven't eased and the markets, interest rates not near 5% in 10s anymore. carl, back to you. >> rick, thank you so much. rick santelli. . >>> milestone week for the market as you know by now. the dow did hit 40k for the first time along intraday highs for the s&p and nasdaq

rick santelli joins us from chicago with more. >> tyler, you pick the perfect word. if we look at a chart, let's look at it going back to around the 24th of last month. on the 25th, made their high yield close for the year with 4.70%. you can see that after that, we really have gone sideways. as a matter of fact, right now as a 10 year, we are on pace for the sixth between the yields of 445 and 449. most closely associated with the fed may or may not do in the short and with respect to interest rates, let's look at a two week of two. they lasted a 5% handle on the first of the month. they have also gone very. if you look at them on a closing basis, it is the eighth potential closed today between yields of 481 and 487. these are really compact closing yield ranges. finally, we have all been keeping close tabs on its record which may be in jeopardy with how many consecutive sessions in the green. maybe one of the big issues was when the two year closed under 5%. you can clearly see the inverse relationship especially once we started to move lower and consolidate on sho

rick santelli has that. >> hi, mike.an sentiment may finals the mid month reads get tossed mid month read for the headline was 67.4 it now becomes 69.1. it improved. the comp still takes you back to november, the weakest since november and if we look at expectations, the mid month read 66.5, also improvement, 69.6. but remains lowest level since november if we look at expectations, 66.5 in the rearview mirror, 68.8 68.8 that now becomes the lowest level since december and finally maybe most important aspect of all, at least to me, university of michigan has two inflation gauges, the one-year, mid month read 3.5 now it's 3.3 that is huge because 3.5 was the highest going back to november now 3.3 still comps to december, not november, not a big difference there, but psychologically means a lot to take that 0.2 back down. finally 5 to 10-year, same dynamic, smaller dose, 3.1 mid month becomes 3% we see yields moving down a bit on those and even though there's still a long way from 2%, the fed's target, they are moving in th

rick santelli and more tariff news out of the administration, and they're looking at the impact of solar. what now? >> the white house is reimposing section 201 tariffs on bifacial panels and these are double-sided panels and make up the vast majority of the panel imports. back when the exemption was first implemented they were a very small portion of the imports, but because they didn't have the tariffs then they grew to become the major imports on majority-scale panels and the white house said they should no longer be exempt. it's ending the anti-dumping duties waiver on june 6th that applied to four southeast asian countries where essentially chinese producers were found to be running the solar systems through the four countries in order to not have -- to be subject to these duties. separately, the department of commerce announced yesterday a new adcvd investigation and this comes on top of tuesday's 301 tariffs when we doubled when the administration doubled the tairives on the solar. >> what is an adc -- >> i don't know how you keep all these straight. >> it's essentially saying chi

let's get to rick santelli in chicago. any reaction? >> biggest reaction is that we stopped going up after the seven year note auction which was not pretty. but it makes sense. when the last auctions completed, the market always takes a breath and especially when the auctions underscore all the fiscal insanity going on and the debt issues that are associated with all the issuance, yes, it focuses investors. that is not all gone at least for a couple weeks. rates are coming down. beige book slight growth. i don't think there was any surprise there. looking at the seven year, we peaked when the results came out and drifting lower since. if you look at the two day, today's yields higher than yield's and yield's yesterdays higher than the previous day. and that is due to the treasury curve. if you look at tens and we should because it is the long end, you want to pay attention to it. we will landlock the two year around 5%. if you look at the tens basically four year high week on pace. bunds under 2.70%. and who wins on the comp? it would b

rick santelli on the floor. >> reporter: yes, thank you kelly. i'm with jim bianco. best i can say is mostly as expected. sequentially lower in terms of cpi, but well above the feds to present target. what did you think about the numbers? >> i kind of agree. i think what you got his moderation in the inflation numbers. that's what everybody is looking for. that's the good news. the bad news is we are moderating around 3%. we are not seeing anywhere near around the 2% number. and what's especially concerning about getting 2% is that equivalent rent which we talked about going into the number printed .4 again. >> yeah, no help there. >> reporter: it's other outliers, because they pick and choose. the market is definitely pro- earnings, pro-economy. and whether the fed uses are not the momentum trade his life and while in equities. >> absolutely. you can see that with the things they pick. they peg auto insurance, and get worried about it because it's very high. but, were not picking the good stuff that's low. we want to look at the stuff that's overstating inflation, a

bailey >>> let's get to the bond market ten year is lower after this morning's inflation data rick santelliest. >> treasury yields are lower on the day. the ten-year, as you look the a chart that starts last friday, still a couple of basis points higher on the week what is the motivation for these moves? let's go to our guest chem and the white board here chem, this is a pretty easy read here, okay here is our income data, the florida metrics for inflation embedded into the number if you look at the top, is it -- this is last month, this is this month. what conclusions can you draw? >> stagnation, inflation stagf stagflation, right this is what we have been talking on and on. people call it a soft landing. it is not a soft landing still a hot inflation number with a slowing economy >> yeah, there is very little doubt. these numbers are smaller and the consumption went negative and it has been negative over the last four months and if you look at yesterday's gdp, what did that tell us on consumption? >> same thing. >> same thing. >> things are coming down. >> when everything has the consumer

rick santelli, up -- not quite ready, but after what happened yesterday with the producer price index santelli is and itting by at the cme in chicago and liesman, rick, seems to feel we have a better chance for a cool number this morning for a variety of reasons. he also thought that, he wasn't sure what happened mid-session yesterday when the market turned around. nasdaq hit a new high. says it could have been revisions people started focusing on yesterday that were a little cooler. my point was that, you know, with this a.i., memes and everything else, maybe the first thought for traders isn't always, am i going to get a rate cut? maybe some other things that they're trading on? >> i think it's sort of all of the above, and there's no doubt by about 10:30 eastern yesterday all i heard, it's a wash. take last month's revision of. aye with hotter ppi and this current reading a wash. not saying i agree but ppi versus cpi you much more watched vehicle for expressing after an inflation date, if there is such an animal. the asymmetric tart whatyou describe, market's with you. meaning ever

. >>> we have trade numbers out a moment ago let's get to rick santelli >> these are, of course, firsto you want to pay attention may have affect on gdp which came in light. so march final on wholesale inventories the mid month read was down .4%, and remains down .4%. that's the biggest month over month change going back to -- well, going back to june of last year, not that long but certainly isn't going to be a contributor to any revisions on first quarter gdp. and looking at sales versus inventories. this is a fresh number down 1.3% down 1.3 that is the weakest number only since january when it was down 1.8% we also get a negative revision in the rear view mirror for february we see that interest rates, as sara pointed out, are down a bit. short maturities near on change. longer matures are down, excuse me, they're up a bit but down from where they were a couple of weeks ago. here's the significant issue, 42 billion of those ten years are up for auction at 1:00 eastern and we will be covering the auctions because they've been rather rambunctious as of late back to you. >> put it on t

rick santelli here with live breaking news from cme hq.ur april read on industrial production expected up 0.1%, near expectations, unchanged. goose egg. unchanged. and last month, we lost some ground from up 0.4% to only up 0.1%. if we look at the capacity utilization numbers, exactly as expected, 78.4, and in the rear view mirror, that was also 78.4, but that just got revised to 78.5, so it moves up by a tenth. production levels, utility rates now are the best since the end of last year. we do see that interest rates across the entire curve outside of 30-year bonds have turned higher. prices have dropped, mainly due to a very large spike in import prices i brought out at 8:30 eastern. "squawk on the street" will return after a short break. [ growl ] ready for the road trip. everyone comfortable. yep, there's plenty of space. i've even got an extra seat. wait! no, no, no, no, no. [ gasps ] [ indistinct chatter ] [ sigh ] let's just wait them out. the volkswagen atlas with three rows of seating for seven. everyone wants a ride. [ snoring ]

rick santelli has that. >> yes, our may read, housing market sentiment index, expecting the number att. comes in at 45. that is the second weakest level of the year, 44 the weakest, that was in january. just for context, precovid, february of 2020, this was at 72. business inventory out for the month of march expecting down .1%. last month revised to .3. down .1% actually to find a bigger inventory drop going back to march of last year, so basically one year. carl, david, back to you. >> rick, thank you so much. busy day for rick over there. >>> the latest inflation print coming in lighter than expected. cpi rising .3 in april lower than .4 economists were looking for. retail sales a goose egg coming in flat. joining us for the first time in a while is former pimco chief economist, paul mccully. good to have you here. >> good to be here. >> how would you characterize it? >> fully benign after the slap around the head in the first three months and i think the market is exuberant. it's consistent that the next move is an ease and that's what a forward looking market should be discountin

fully pressed down to the floor there, even while you're very close to your target >> bring in rick santelli thoughts on this. >> yeah. what do you think about whether the economy is restrictive at this point or not, rick? >> you know, i think there's some very important information here i think the market, of course, is looking at the two numbers on income and spending on a month over month once again playing the annualized basis game. what i see i see real spending down 0.1 down 0.1 but down 0.3 in january. we've been there, done that. obviously any negative numbers are good ones. real personal spending adjusts for inflation gives a view of the consumption kind of index of the consumer slowly it's deteriorating. year over year's at 2.7, 2.8 that remain. to me a stickiness there, and once again, whether it's, know, the verdict yesterday. the fix is in on this. in my opinion. fix is in. because we continually get these leanings by many officials that, you know, we're close. to we need to wait for the last mile the reality is, we could look towards europe look towards a lot of numbers. their

treasuries >> treasury yields, if you've been watching closely, they've crept lower over the last week rick santellieeing b what do you think, rick? >> i think that yields pretty much hit their recent peak of 470 as the high yield close. that was from the 25th of april. and i think that close is going to stand for a while i'm very much looking to test 5% at some point later in the year, but i think at this point, i would harken back to the 10th of april, when we had the march release of cpi on that particular session, the knee-jerk reaction at 8:30 eastern brought us from a 433 yield up to a 4.5 yield. that was the first impulse, when inflation was running hot, that's where we popped and i do suspect that that's going to be the range that we play in for a while. maybe the mid-4.30s, maybe as high as 4.60 but ultimately, i think the trade continues to be buy the wink and sell the cut. there's definitely a winkish aspect to the fed. there's definitely a bias. i can't put my finger on it exactly, but over the last several plus months, the guidance from the fed, the notion that a cut is the base line ca

. >>> a new look at initial jobless claims rick santelli standing by at cme in chicago rick, what areuities moves up because in this backwards world we live in initial jobless claims came in hotter than expected looking for 210,000. 23,000 this happens to be the largest amount of initial claims since the last week in august, and last month had a very subtle revision from 208,000 to 209,000. so a rather big jump if you look at continuing claims, kind of reverse image. 1 million 785,000. darn close to expectations last week got slightly revised 1 million 768,000. if you look at all four readings so far for the month of april, and that is the last week in april on continuing claims always a week in arrear, really snug very tight numbers all basically slightly under 1.8 million never really seen anything quite like it. volatility in continuing claims diminished the initial claims number is big. 25 billion 30-year options completing our may refunding, and i do point out that yesterday's ten year option really sparked a bit of a sell-off that pushed ten year rates back over at least tempora

i think back somewhere in the 58,000 range rick santelli is at the cme with the numbers. obless claims expecting a number in the vicinity of 210,000. a little light but very close. 208,000. interesting about that, of course, it follows 207,000 that was the smallest amount going back to the second week in february when it was 200,000 we just revised that to 208,000. so back-to-back 208,000. on continuing claims expecting a number around 1.79 million end up with 1 million 174,000. a little lighter than expectations that would actually be the lightest level going back to -- the second week in january second week in january. so now that we've had a couple of readings below.8 million, we continue to look at the labor market 1.8 million. through continuing claims awfully well behaved turn to the trade balance. shall we expecting a number around minus 70 billion a trade deficit. 69.4 million close to expectations. subtle revision higher in the rearview mirror. non-farm productivity. special sauce of the u.s. economy. this is the first quarter preliminary read we're expecting it t

. >>> let's get straight over to rick santelli. he's got data for us this morning. ock on the first quarter numbers. expected to be up 1.3. and it is up exactly 1.3. so we sub stract0.3 from first look at 1.6. comps to the second quarter of '22 down 0.6 last time at these levelling of gdp activity. switch gears to consumption. 2%. expecting 2.2. it was 2.5. that's a rather large revision. 2% is the lightest since the second quarter of '23 when up 0.8. consumption's a big deal. consume's a big deal. going a long way to potentially assuage fears the next move might be a tightening. price index. 3%. 3%. expecting 3.1 and rearview mirror 3.1. still comps to 1.6. 1.6 lightest. the last quarter of last year. keep in mind, the third quarter of last year was 3.3. so we can see that, you know, it is a drop, but it's still well above the 2% target. now, core pce. personal consumption price index. kwour over quarter. dropped from expectations and rearview mirror from 3.7, new read, 3.6. 3.6 still comps to the last quarter of last year, in terms of smaller inflationary pressures

rick santelli here live at cme hq with breaking news of the mo morning.evised 232,000. so we're down 10k. continuing claims. 1 million 794,000. that is definitely a little bit hotter than expectations, in the rearview mirror, a subtle lower revision from 1 million 785 to 1 million 781. so we continue to remain under 1.8 million in. the last time over that was the last week in march. let's move towards april housing starts. expected to be 1 million 421,000 seasonally adjusted annualized united units. super light. 1 million 360. 1 plmillion 360. lowest since the rearview mirror. down to 1 million 287,000. these are really weak numbers. if you look at last month, last month is the weakest level going all the way back to june of 2020. so these are huge misses on starts. look at permits. 1 million 440,000. that is less than the 1 million 480,000 we were expected. in the rearview mirror, a positive revision from 1 million 458,000 to 1 million 485,000. so the 1 million 440,000, that is the weakest going back to april of last year. let's look at phillie fed busin

rick santelli standing by at cme in chicago do you have the numbers?, ten year note yields trading below yesterday's 440.5 low yield. keep an eye on that. initial claims vicinity 220,000 comes in on the light side 215,000. 215,000. that is the lightest since the last week in april, and just to put a face on it the first week of this month we had 232,000 initial claims that was basically the highest level since last summer. that's how low these have been trending, and last week's 222 moved slightly to 223. continuing claims, another week under 1.8 million. all of last month and now the first two weeks of reporting on continuing claims. 1 million 794,000. and that actually is very close to last month, but then they revised it down. it was exactly the same last month. now becomes 1 million 786,000. so we continue to see below trend expansion and initial continuing claims. one of the big drivers, of course, that paints a picture of a strong labor market which should put rates a little higher, but we are seeing more of a response to yesterday's uptick on th

douglas holtz-eakin, former congressional director and our own steve liesman and rick santelli.and i guess maybe i just quickly would ask stephanie, since you trade. you make investments all the time. what would be worse? a really hot number or a really cold number, or are they equally bad and we just sort of need a nice goldilocks number? not too hot. no too cold. >> i want a good number. i'll take a hot number. a strong job market has been the backbone of the strength of this economy, and we have seen good numbers across the board in other areas of employment. weekly jobless claims, four-week moving average far from recessionary at 210,000. we have the challenger gray year-to-date. layoffs off 6.4%. this is very important. driving the consumer which is 70% of the economy, and the economy is growing 2, 2.5%-ish good for earnings. that's what i care about. because earnings are revised higher and seen a beat rate of 80%. >> going to rick. rick, we know that some people that just -- they just think that inflation comes down after unemployment goes up. so we're not going to see inf

over to rick santelli standing by at the cme in chicago >> yes, becky.e goods expected down 0.8% down close to 1% coming up a winner up 0.7 of a percent. up 0.7 in terms of revisions get to th those in a moment. strip out transportation it's still fairly lofty. well above expectations. up 0.4%. and if we look at capital good orders non-defense x aircraft for capital spending expected up 0.1% also coming in better than expected up 0.3%. finally, let's switch from orders to shipments. orders from shipments. shipments up 0.4% better than 0.1% expected. beat on every line here's the issue this is preliminary. if you looked at march's preliminary, they were very lofty. headline was 2.6 ended up 0.9 from preliminary to final reads we get big revisions that 0.9 actually became revised again in march to 0.8. started 2.6. ended up 0.8 be very careful of a volatile series still numbers better than expected, and that does put a bit of a upside move in interest rates. now, considering we're currently trading at 449 in a ten year, up seven basis points on the week 49

and rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago.oing to mean for the fed. >> exactly. but it has so many ramifications in other markets. the euro currency, for example, is at a five-week high right now. why? because they're thinking our inflation will be skpoft and th relationship to them being more dovish may change. april read on producer price index. the wholesale inflation gauge, up a half of 1% on headline, up half of 1%. that's up 0.5%, and that is the hottest read, well, just since february, when it was up 0.6. and if we look at exfood and energy, same number. more than double expectations, as becky pointed out, up half of 1%. that is the hottest read there. it equals january. you have to go to july of last year, to get a hotter read. another hot read is ex-food energy and trade. it's up 0.4, exactly double expectations. to find a hotter read, you have to go to january of this year, when it was up 0.6. now, let's do the year over year numbers. year over year, final demand, up 2.2, as expected. but still 0.1 hotter than the re