let's get a deeper look at what has been happening on the yield front today with rick santelli. it's not just in the u.s. we have seen yields spiking. in the uk, the 10 year has risen by one full point in the last couple of months, and rick, at least, our currency is strengthening. >> it is even worse in general eu conditions. not only are they seeing inflation issues pick up, they are seeing a stagnation in their economies. parts of germany have not had positive growth in many quarters. this is a big deal. i don't understand why everybody is so confused about why interest rates are going up, despite the fed and their giant bias. it's pretty darn easy. a, they have been wrong. b, it is about inflation. it is nowhere near 2%. , that an deficits matter , and just because the fed is easing, does not mean investors are ignoring the data, which is pretty darn hard to ignore. they are not doing qe, the balance sheet is too big. there is a springlike quality to the longneck. look at 201,000 in claims today. everybody is talking about how great that is. there is a seasonal adjustment pro

and rick santelli is in chicago. yields are on the move.from being over. >> yeah, oh, absolutely. just look at what's going on in europe. not only do they have really lousy growth, they have inflation that's starting to rise. i fully suspect that inflation is not going to moderate to levels the fed feels comfortable with. you know, we had a lot going on today, brian. jolts over 8 million, most job openings since may of '24. prices paid leaped to the highest levels since february of pea 23. put those two together. and if you look at the last three days, tens are running way past the twos. right now they're up 5, twos are up 1. we've moved the spread four basis points today alone, which means it's knocking on the door of 40 basis points, which is the widest it's been in over 32 months on a closing basis. and finally, this last chart is really interesting. yes, ten-year note yields at current levels, should they close here, would be an eight-month high yield close. but we are just a smidge away from the highs yield close going back to november

and with the meeting for the fed looming next week rick santelli joining us from chicago. there rick. >> yeah yeah. you know i have to get to that. you know the president demanding lower rates. you're not going to be able to get what you demand when it comes to interest rates. however he also wants to bring down electric costs, energy costs, grid costs and remove subsidies. that alone could make a huge difference on inflation. so there's a definite two sided coin here. when it looks at inflation and interest rates, we need to take the other side and consideration. now let's look at what happened with that two year. if you look at the two year at 945 eastern boy the bottom falls out. you see a lot of buying pushing yields down. what happened then. that's when we saw the services pmi move from 56.8 to 52.8. it's preliminary jam read. so that was weaker than expected. and if you open the chart up to a week to date of ten, you could see that, you know, on wednesday we had a higher high than tuesday. on thursday yesterday we had a higher high than wednesday. today we do not have

now we're going to get to the bond market with the ten year note ticking higher today rick santelli incago rick, you heard the president say it earlier. let's just force interest rates down. tell them the president says it. and the bond market's going to do what he says. right. >> well you know what it's always possible. but it's very interesting lately that the long maturities you know ten year, 20 year, 30 year, these long maturities have a mind of their own. and i'm not so sure they're going to listen to chairman powell, the president of the united states. anybody except for investors. let's start at the beginning. the last couple of days i've been talking about how rates certainly technically seem to have rolled and turned to the upside, but maybe let's look at continuing claims first. today, a whisker under 1.9 million on continuing claims. you see that chart there. that chart goes back towards 2022. in the middle of 2022, we had the lowest level of claims, 1,339,000. since the late 1960s. now look where it's at. it's at a 39 month high. we have not had a 1.9 million handle. it's

let's get to rick santelli. hey, rick. >> hi, carl. >> yes a mixed.e include. >> manufacturing services and a composite on the headline. we've had six. >> consecutive reads. >> below 50. that changes. so the. >> manufacturing headline. >> pmi 50.1. >> that's the best. >> and first. >> time over. >> 50 since. >> june of last year sequentially higher. >> than 49.4. >> now here's where it gets a little weird. >> the next two are. >> sequentially lower and below expectations. >> services takes a hit 52.8. >> that's the weakest. >> since april of last year. and if you look at the composite it was definitely above 50. >> just like services. >> but the weakest since. >> april of 24. >> at 52.4. >> so you see. >> the volatility. >> in ten year yields. >> they've moved. >> up down. >> a little bit. yeah we moved above. >> 50in the headline. but services what we. >> want. >> to pay attention to. and even. >> though it's. >> an expansion. >> mode it is definitely moving a bit down. if we look at the big. >> news. >> of. the morning the bank of. japan raised rate

let's get to rick santelli. >> yes, carl. now on inventories. minus 0.2 remains 0.2.. if we like at trades, the biggest increase in trade sales since february of this year, and the second best number of 2024. we do see a negative revision from minus 110 to minus 0.3. but we do want to pay attention ahead of legislation that could not only effect that, but trade balances, and trade deficits. in a 30 year, we reached a yield of 4.97. in the 30 year bond, we haven't traded over 5% since the end of 2023. and you're right. pay attention to that 22 billion reopen 30 year bond option at 1:00 eastern. sarah, back to you. >> yeah, a lot of focus on those bond options this week. thank you very much, rick santelli. just want to mention some of the other data we've gotten today. more good news on the jobs front, at least when you look at jobless claims. we're not seeing layoffs pile up, in fact, quite the opposite. fewer americans filing for unemployment claims. down to 201,000 in the week. so that moves the four week moving average which sort of smooths out the volatility into a

. >> thank you very much, rick santelli. >>> coming up, more on the horrible fires in los angeles.t we know and what we don't know about the cause, and who might pay for it all. stay with us. iment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. ♪♪ with powerful, easy-to-use tools power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley (♪♪) (♪♪) what took you so long? i'm sorry, there was a long line at the thai place. you get the sauce i like? of course! you're the man! i wish. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com [city noise] investment opportunities are everywhere you turn. do you charge forward? freeze in your tracks? (♪♪) or, let curiosity light the way. at t. rowe price, we're asking smart question

rick santelli here. what an interesting day for the new trump administration.n, and the price of treasuries, lots of green in equities. 2s and 10s on one chart. what should jump out to you is how rates have trended lower. but two-year rates, they're a little more stubborn today. yes, the yield curve is flattening. two-year virtually unchanged. do remember, we have a 10 that's at 4.57. open that year-to-date chart, we're unchanged on the year on the 10-year, and it's down a handful of basis points, flattening the curve. why is it? well, we have seen the lead that used to be long dated treasury yields pushing rates higher. now it's switched and moving lower. i think it was a lot of policy uncertainty, and the notion you could call it trump derangement syndrome, whatever you want, but the economists were all about half empty on tariffs. as we come in today, maybe the talk should be about deregulation, all those signings. but it's going to be an interesting second term, and how much interest rates move up, we'll have to wait and see what the actual legislation and

let's get to rick santelli out in chicago with more on where bonds and what bonds are doing today. ck. >> you know, i find it so fascinating. if you look at the data where all of this started this morning 8:30 eastern, if you took the month-over-month numbers, we made progress. let's look at month-over-month ex food, energy, trade. you see the chart there. it goes back a couple of years. we are down. it was 0.10 today, and that's good news. but if you look at the year over year numbers, and this is the year over year ex food, ex energy, ex trade, the true core, you could see that even though it came down, and that was a late revision from 3.5 to 3.3, it's still elevated. as a matter of fact, all of the year over year numbers are over 3%. what did the markets do? ? this is really fascinating. twos and tens on the same chart, basically the ten-year is higher in yield. after it had volatility. but if you look at where they were at 8:30 eastern, and i was there, we are at 437 plus or a basis point lower in twos, exactly at the same place in tens at 479. granted, it made a play for 480 a

let's blasted out to rick santelli in chicago with the latest read on the market and why i think you might agree, rick, that the federal reserve cut in september, just weirder and weirder and weirder at least to me. >> reporter: i don't disagree it looks weird but i don't know if it's making a big difference. the longhand has a mind of its own and i think that is going to be the story from 2025. everybody is debating if rates go up it's going to be bad for stocks, there's been plenty of years where the longhand has gone upward, the curve has deepened and stocks loved it because it was underpinned by a strong and growing and expanding economy. now if it's about debt and deficits, that's a whole different story. listen, -- in the first administration, believe me, they are going to be all over debt and deficits that they've ignored for the last administration, it's going to be an ongoing probing story and the markets are going to pay attention. claims today were at the lowest level since april, but there's a huge asterisk there, the process doesn't work well during the holiday season. i

rick santelli.a about some of the risks we've been talking about, that the economy is in good shape and that inflation pressure is not over yet. rick highlighted that in the prices paid index. the fact that there were more than 8 million job openings, expected fewer than 8 million job openings. we know the fed pays attention to that rate especially between the job openings compared to the unemployed. so this suggests things are in really healthy shape and the fed is right to pause, maybe was wrong to cut 100 basis points. >> there was a time where that number was the number that at least the fed chair expressed interest in the in the press conference. it explains what cook said yesterday that the fed can be more cautious on cuts. >> they have to be more cautious on can you tell us because they have to pay attention to these prices perking up. one of their mandates is inflation, the other thing they were worried about was weakness in the jobs market. this data suggests that there are still plenty of

aging because we've seen a big rise in yields as we've been bidding up, i guess, or setting up rick santelli this week's big inflation data. there's nothing wrong with age when it comes to humans, too, in the markets because, by the way, it's experience. >> yeah. well, we've experienced a lot of debt and deficits which is one of the reasons i think we're looking at these rates. you know what is fascinating? look at tens and 30s on january 2nd. i know i'm the only one who finds it so interesting, but when you think the low yields were made and the very first day of trading in 2025, and i have an informal poll on why rates are going up, and the number one answer and quelly referred to this in the last segment, good job, kelly. uncertainty is viewed through the lens of half empty. tariffs will make the dollar go even higher and it will all be super duper inflationary. why do i bring it up as the number one answer? because that's how quickly things can change when we get a better gps on what the new trump administration intends to do, and the number two answer was rollover risk and number three

rick santelli in chicago with the details. rick?d 20-year auction and we're going to learn something by short maturities. let's put twos, tens and 30s on the same child support going back towards the 17th. what you'll notice is that two years have taken the lead. that implies at least according to many of my sources and my own opinion, too, that it's telling us there's going to be less easing. that might sound like something we know already, but it really is reflected in the market as the short end has taken over. and over the last session or two, what we've also noticed is if you look at the spread, when the twos overtook, it affected the yield curve, bringing it down. flattening it. but the last couple of sessions, it's been going sideways. put all that together and then add in 457 is held. that was the settlement for ten-year for 2024. we held it. all of that, many traders believe, interest rates have turned the corner. and they're going to be doing a little bit more towards the upside. we never traded below that 4.5 level and we

rick santelli out in chicago talking to the traders. hi, rick! >> hi, yeah! boy, yields dropped big-time! let's see. here's the numbers today for cpi. up 0.4 on headline, up 0.2 on core, year over year headline up 2.9, year over year up 3.2 on headlines. do those sound cold to you? no, cold is walking here from the other exchange. it's cold outside! those numbers are not cold. the market did have a huge move, though, and we'll discuss with a trader why and keep an eye on that dollar index. it's almost back to unchanged even though rates have taken a big drop. let's go pitch one question for you, okay? >> shoot. >> none of this data looked very cold to me, yesterday or today. yet we saw a big drops in rates and your market screamed. why? >> yeah, everybody looks at the price action and comes up with an answer for why. >> oh, boy, is that true? >> the truth of the matter is, the vol is very well supplied, the sku is very well supplied. so once we filled that gap to the pre-election number, people were looking for that and there was already of buying there alrea

rick santelli is out in chicago with that. we have had inflation and best in testimony today.ink? >> yeah, well, listen, it's going to be interesting to see when all these picks get voted on and see who is in, who is out. but who really knows what's going to happen? you know, conditions of the market, conditions of the economy, domestically and globally, of course, may alter agendas that are far from set in stone. one thing i can tell you is despite the fact the inflation data really wasn't hugely cool in any way, the anticipation of it, maybe being much warmer, turned out to give us a big move in the marketplace. granted, look at the data, it wasn't bad. core retail sales, that was up 0.7. up 0.7. that's really solid. that control number is the third consecutive increase in a row. and if you continue to look at the year-to-date of two-year note yields, the short maturities, the ones that didn't rally as high as the long, they're toying with potential new low close of the year. and let's go to the long end now, kelly. because the long end, i think, gives you the most technical

rick santelli is standing by in chicago. so buckle up and be patient. on initial claims, we are now past the holiday season. 217,000? that is about six or 7000 more than expected. the rearview mirror goes 201 to 203,000. continuing claims, 1.39 million. 159,000. let's go to retail sales. the headline number of 6/10. disappointment up for tents and in the rearview mirror, still up 7/10 and that was the second- best number of the year. now if we are looking at ex- autos, ex-autos remains up .04%. very solid reading. auto and gas, up .03% and another solid reading. up .07%, the highest reading since june of 2024 when it was up .9 and that was one of the highest readings of the year. excuse me, we are actually 1.3 percent up for december. now, let's go to philly fed, the january number. we are expecting down five 2 down seven. oh, wow! 44.3%. you really have to go on the machine to find a higher number. as a matter of fact, 44.4% in april of 2021 so this is way up and that is a solid number on manufacturing. okay! export and imp

so let's bring in rick santelli for that side of the story. there's a bond auction. the flight to safety all kinds of things putting upward pressure on prices rick. and downside pressure on yields. >> yeah you know you bring up a good. >> point dom. >> and that's the. >> lesson to learn today. every market even when they get ugly viewers there's lessons to be learned. and the lesson today is that equities moving down in a very aggressive fashion still makes fixed income. treasuries a flight to safety harbor. >> many have. >> wondered if we're. >> going to. >> see that relationship. you know. >> we've seen it over the last 25 or 30 years. it was. >> really cemented. >> in 1987 during the market crash when treasuries. well, they locked up limit pushing yields down very similar to today. let's look at a two year. >> on a 24. >> hour chart. >> with s&p futures. >> and you. can see exactly what i'm talking about. they're exactly the same. now if we pull a ten. year on a 24 hour along with the dollar index. you see the same relationship. but with this one. dom, i want to pu

rick santelli has the numbers for us. rick? s&p global, these are december final reads on the manufacturing side. our midmonth read was 48.3. it improved up to 49.4. but it's still sixth consecutive month in contraction. so the last six months under 50. the first six months of 2024 were above 50. 49.4 fits right in with november, which was 49.7. both just a bit. but still under 50. big story today is how the dollar index came in 2025 roaring. if it would have closed at some of the higher levels, it would be the highest close going back to november of '22. we still have construction spending and the ism pmis at the top of the hour. "squawk on the street" will return after a short break. (♪♪) (♪♪) what took you so long? i'm sorry, there was a long line at the thai place. you get the sauce i like? of course! you're the man! i wish. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus

. >>> we do have some data here, industrial production and capacity utilization, rick santelli in chicago with the numbers. hi, rick. >> yes, these are december numbers, sara. we are expecting production to be around the up 0.3 to 0.4% area, triple that, up nearly 1%. that is the best month over month change going all the way back to february of '24. last month we had a positive revision from .0.1 up to 0.2. maybe there is a life. philly fed was on the strong side yesterday. capacity utilization expected to be around 77%. last month was the weakest since april of '21, it gets revised from 76.8 to 77 and the new number is 77.6. that is the best rate going back to august of last year. so definitely some improvement, some positive revisions, interest rates have turned very subtly, but we did get down to a 4.56 in the ten year and at its current level at 4.58 right now a ten year is down 3 on the day, down 18 basis points on the week, sara, back to you. >> okay. thank you, rick. >>> also want to bring breaking news. just got a filing out of goldman sachs when it comes to ceo david solomon's c

rick santelli has it for us. rick. >> good morning, our november read on business inventories. this is a fourth quarter number. we want to pay attention to the widgets to see if it adds or subtracts to gdp. expecting up .1. in the rear view mirror, up .1 last month becomes zero. not much going on to add to gdp. this is the 11 month, and ten out of the 11 months have been positive. you look at last year, nine out of the twelve were negative. we have had a much better inventory backdrop in 2024 than we did in the previous year. interest rates, well, as we sit, two-year's up 24.67 and the ten is up two. parallel shift on the yield curve. we have more data on housing, home builders housing market, sentiment index is coming out, and for that we head east to diana olick. >> home builder sentiment in january rose one point to 47 on the nahb index. the street was looking for a one point decline. it's an improvement but anything below 50 is still considered negative. the index stood at 44 in january of last year. the build

let's get to rick santelli. rick. >> yes these are december. >> new home sales. >> carol expecting the numbers somewhere in the 675,000 camp. those are seasonally adjusted. annualized units. we come in better a whisker under 700,000 698,000. that's the best. rate since september of last year. and a positive revision in the rear view mirror, 664,000 becomes 674,000. this was largely expected. a rebound. but do remember the month of december was not friendly for 30 year. mortgage rates. >> or interest. >> rates in general. if you were looking to finance. >> a home. >> december saw interest rates climb in the ten year and they basically in the 30 year mortgage fixed arena saw mortgages above 7% pretty much for the entire month. for more a dig deeper into this number, let's head east to diana olick diana. >> rick, it's really. >> interesting that we got. >> a beat. >> on this number. remember, new home. >> sales are based on signed contracts. >> during. >> the month, so it's the most current indicator that. >> we get

for that we'll go over to rick santelli. >> this is the summer leading economic indicators, and boy,n running negative for years. and once again minus 0.10% as expected. in the rearview mirror the only positive of the year up 0.3 is positive up 0.4. just to put a face on it these 12 months we had one zero month unchanged, that was in february. and like i said up 0.4 up best '21. and if we look at what's going on really this week the inauguration and the equity markets are quite green, interest trades nearly well-behaved as you pointed out, nearly unchanged. 457 and a ten and remember we did briefly last week touch back intraday, touched 5% on the bond. we do seem to be consolidating. spent no time under 4.5%. many traders consider that the best yield support. david, back to you. >> we're going to get to netflix now. the company did beat across the board at reported record subscriber submissions. joining us now is michael morris. he raise his price target to $1,100 and maintains a buy. why more runway ahead in. >> well, there's a couple of things here. the first is that the penetratio

rick santelli sanding by at the cme in chicago. know it's going to be a deficit. it's for the month of november. expecting a number around minus 78 billion. almost spot on with expectations. minus 78.2 billion. in the rear-view mirror at least, up until now, un revised october, minus 73.8 billion, just revised, but only a smidge. now there's something interesting about 78.2. first of all, it's the biggest deficit since september, when it was 83, almost 84 billion. that was the biggest deficit going back to may of '22. i'm going to give you some trivia, joe. we started following the trade balance in january of '92. if you look at pre-covid, february of 2020. it was minus 40 billion. prior to covid. so from february of 2020, all the way back to january of '92, the biggest debt we had was minus 68 billion. my point is so much has changed post-covid, whether it's with trade, baseline spending by the government, these numbers are shockingly high. even at 78.2 billion, that's well below 101 billion, that was in march of '22. so these num

rick santelli is standing by in chicago, and rick, we have got about 20 seconds before we get these numberse made some hay with the short term is over pbi, but year-over-year was still sticky, well over 12%. same may be true today. we want to pay very close attention to year-over-year on retail inflation. and here we go, consumer price index for december comes out 4/10 of the headline, exactly as expected! to find a higher number than 4/10, you are going all the way back to august of 2023, when it was up half of 1%. strip out the all-important food and energy, up to tens, one sent cooler than we expected. one intent cooler than the rearview mirror. up to tens, how does that come? we equal july of 24, to find a lower number, you go back to june of '24. here we go, on the headline year-over-year, up 2.9, as expected. how much more as expected? the fact that it is 2/10 higher than our last look, which was 2.7 peer to have a number higher, you are going june of last year. finally, on the year-over-year core, it is 3.2%, 1/10 lighter than the rearview mirror, lighter than expectations. but, 3.2

. >>> rick santelli standing by at the cme in chicago with breaking -- i hope it's not -- the numbersequities are flying. interest rates are moving lower. housing starts for december, just a whisker under 1.5 million. 1,499,000. what's unique about this, even with last month's revision, moving up to 1.294 million, is that we have gone from the weakest level last month to june of 2020 last month, even with the revision, to today's number, which is the best since february of '24. a real switch. much of the weakness, as diane olick has been pointing out, is it in multifamily. what's the news this week? even though interest rates have gone down, and we will see mortgage rates catch up to that. previous to that, if you looked at the mortgage bankers survey, 30-year topped 7%. with high interest rates in housing and even with this move in treasuries, they'll probably remain high. it's going to keep multifamilies in a positive light because it's more affordable. on the permit side, this is december preliminary number. it will change. 1,483,000. it's been hovering rnd 1.5 million permits. see

a former treasury official in the biden the brookings institute and our own steve liesman and rick santelliing whether or not there's some down side weakness that reignites this idea that maybe the fed might cut in the first half of the year. >> rick, i think anything that a lays inflation fears -- what what are you thinking? >> if we don't get negative job growth i agree with you, i think inflation issues and general supply debt issues around the globe are going to take preference. my guess on this number would be close to steve's, right around 160,000, close to expectations. i pay particularly close attention to average hourly earnings. i think that that gives us some types of glimpse into the topics of inflation. it isn't correlated there, but obviously if the incomes remain on the high side, there's going to be an issue potentially down the road to continue to monitor higher wages and that all feeds through into higher prices. >> all right. here we go. nonfarm payrolls for the month of december on our jobs, jobs, jobs report, way hot, 256,000. >> wow. >> what a shocker. 212,000 on last

rick santelli here live. >> cme hq breaking news.on initial claims 223,000. that's a little higher than we're used to. that would be the highest level going back to the first week in december of last year. and keep this in mind, we haven't been over 250,000 on initial claims since the first week in october of 2024. continuing claims also bit higher. we're watching yields move down on this info 1,899,000. literally a whisker under 1.9 million. we haven't been above 1.9 million now in 33 weeks 33 weeks. yes that's correct. and in the rear view mirror, subtle revision 1,853,000. now is last week. we know we were closed monday of this week for martin luther king day. that next week probably show us some seasonal adjustment issues. but these numbers right here should be pretty straight. and they have moved up a little bit. as i said, yields moving down. but maybe the big news in yields if you look at yesterday's yields in treasuries they traded above the previous day's highs today. we're already trading above yesterday's high yields. look