rick santelli is in chicago with more rick. >> yeah. you know. >> what you say is absolutely true.ially if you look at longer maturities, well, look at all maturities. the borrowing costs were less before the fed started easing. so even though that is correct in today's service sector information, we see that even though all categories are still in expansion mode, meaning above 50, we see that sequentially there are issues and tomorrow's going to be a great test of the labor market because initial claims last week were 207,000. we're getting close to very historic levels. you know, once you start to get under 200,000, boy, you're looking at some of the better numbers going back to the 60s. so there's no doubt the labor market is cooling. jolts dropped over 500,000 openings. but it's not about that. it's cooling. it's about how long it's going to take before that ice cube in the glass is completely melted. and we don't know. the fed doesn't know either. but today, well, we learned a couple of things. if you look at the first chart, this is the trade balance, which is a deficit going

anything else rick santelli wants to talk about with rick santelli? >> well, i'll tell you what brian. you nailed it. 556,000 jobs less than last month. 8,156,000 to today's 7,600,000. that's a whopper of a drop. and it definitely fueled roughly a three and a half to four and a half basis point parallel shift on the yield curve. yields down definitely yields down. brian, i want to ask you a question, brian. one year ago today, february of 2024. do you think most people thought that trump would be in the white house today? yes or no? >> no. >> okay, now all the following charts are one year old. and i want to keep in mind that the only way you really make money trading is if you know what moves the market. now, i thank chris for giving me the term i needed. trumpian angst. trumpian angst is everywhere. publications on tv and magazines everywhere, especially the last 72 hours. but as you look at a one year chart of two year rates, ten year rates, dollar index, and five year break, even, every one of those charts shares something that the catalyst for ev

rick santelli with the latest. tell us. >> well there was a lot of warm data out this morning that's for sure. whether it was the unemployment rate dropping to 4% as you see on that chart, or university of michigan, not only the weakness in confidence, but of course, the big jump from 3.3 to 4.3. that really is a big jump on the one year assessed future inflation. but a word of caution. there's a lot of nervousness and uncertainty that goes with these. i don't think it's a coincidence some of this information gets released on a friday. i would take it in stride. we see what happened with canada and mexico and how the markets reacted. but you see a lot of red in the equity space now. you know, it's been an interesting week. we flattened the yield curve 14 basis points. look at twos and tens. that's a week to day chart. two year yields are currently up seven on the week ten year note yields are down seven on the week. very unusual. and next week get this. not only do we have 310 and 30 year auctions, those long dated

rick santelli is in chicago. and rick i'll just say this. we have seen a lot of revisions lately. i wonder how much the jobs number, with all due respect to everybody, may not be revised again. and if it is, what does that mean for the federal reserve and them doing their job? >> you know, i'll tell you what. on the two front revision issues, the one we know about from august, i heard everybody talking about it earlier, 818,000. we knew that number. that's from april, march of 23 to april of 24. we'll get a finalized number on that. the other revisions, years and years and years of immigration. you know, immigration is the big story. it's all about the current administration. i find it so fascinating that, you know, the first month of this president's term, all this is coming out with respect to immigration and these adjustments. but i'll make it easy. tomorrow's number, just look at it on its own. both those major revisions, in my opinion, aren't going to really change much. and i contend on the immigration front, there are so many things how much money, representation by the sta

plenty to discuss with rick santelli today.elds in particular as we're seeing the ten year kind of flat. but the two year is pricing in some near term inflation that i guess that's kind of it's not inverting the curve rick. but it's moving in that direction. let's bring in mr. santelli for more. what do you make of it. >> well i'm not sure i jump to the inflation notion. i would just jump to the central banking notion. central bank already has an inflation problem. but what i see is the twos ten spread has flattened about 6 or 7 basis points today. and early in the session we saw that two year yields were slightly elevated. and ten, 20, 30 year yields the longer ones weren't elevated at all. that relationship has changed somewhat, but the spread hasn't changed. so we see that two year yields have gone even higher and ten year yields have gone higher. they're virtually unchanged now on a ten year up about 6 or 7 basis points in a two year. why am i going through all that? because we don't really know why. but the fact that the s

let's get to rick santelli once again. hey, rick. >> yes ism.reads. >> these are. >> of. >> course ism pmis. >> versus s&p global. on the manufacturing headline expecting 50. >> we end. >> up with 50.9 50.9. >> what's interesting. >> here is. >> that we reversed. 26 consecutive. >> months under 50. yes. now we are back over 50. 50.9 would be the best read going back to september of. >> 22. >> september of 22. impressive. new orders also well. above what we were expecting at 55.1. that would be the best since. may of 22. >> and if we. >> look at. >> the employment. >> side. employment 47.8 expected leaps over 50. 50.3. that would be the best read since. >> well. >> may may. >> of 24. and finally, on the prices paid. >> side. >> we'd rather have these go down. >> but it is. >> a bit higher than expected 54.9 we're looking for a number closer to 5450 4.9. how would that measure up? well, 57 was where we were in may of 24. in between then the lowest read we had was. 48 in september, so still. >> a bit elevated. >> now we also had construction spendi

rick santelli.eed, jolts. this is the summer number. it's always two. >> months in arrears. >> expecting 8 million ish 7,600,000. >> that is the smallest. >> month over month. >> job openings. >> well, going all the way back to sep of last year, there was a revision. upward though of november. >> and that was from. >> 8,098,000 to 8,156,000. now let's look at factory orders for december, shall we? >> expected down 8/10. >> pretty much. >> as expected. down 9/10. that would be the weakest going back to july of last year. >> but we. >> did have. >> a revision. >> in the wrong direction. unfortunately from minus 4/10. >> our last. >> look doubling down to minus 8/10. so back to back weakness in factory orders. now let's look at. >> x transportation. >> dramatic improvement. >> up to. >> 3/10 durable goods. >> now these. >> are. >> final reads. we get rid. >> of the mid. >> month read bin. >> by three -2.2. it remains. >> at -2.2. once again. >> strip out transportation. >> we could see where the drag w

let's get to rick santelli. hi again rick. >> hi carl. of service pmis. these are from ism. and they're not final reads. they are the january read expecting the headline number on the service index of 54 comes in at 52.8. lightest since nov of 24 last month a subtle revision on its final read from 54.1 to 54. even now, let's look at new orders 51.3 much lower than expected. sequentially lower than slightly revised 54.4. that would be the weakest level since june of 24. if we look at the service employment, a very important number. we had adp today. it was positive with a positive revision. friday's the big job. job jobs report comes in at 52.3. it is sequentially higher than our last look which was 51.3 52.3. well 52.3 would be the best read since nov of 24. and finally, finally, if we look at the prices paid and this of course we have to look at it backwards. we don't want this one going up, but nonetheless it is sequentially lower 60.4 sequentially lower, much lower than the 65 ish we were sort of looking for. how does that fit in? well

rick santelli's got it. hey, rick. >> yeah, carl. >> watch equities.were just talking about they were making new highs. they reversed a little bit interest rates. they might move up here. some big surprises in our december final. read on inventories. but i'm sorry on our preliminary february on michigan 67.8 is the headline that way lower than the 71 almost 72. we're looking for 67.8. that will be the weakest level going all the way back to november of 23. now, if we look at current conditions, also significantly lower 68.7. this follows 74.0. and i understand it's a preliminary 68.7. that would be the weakest going back to well november of last year. and then finally if we look at expectations what lies ahead 67.3 well below 69.3. and here's where it even gets crazier. one year inflation moved from. get this 3.3% to 4.3%. i'm staring at it and thinking maybe i picked it off wrong off the wires. but 4.3, that would be the highest surveyed inflation on the one year front in this report going back to november of 23. and if you look at the 5 to 10 year in

rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago. h non-farm productivity. now this is our first glimpse at fourth quarter expecting up 1.2%. and boy that's exactly where it is now. listen we all know that back in the day alan greenspan said nonfarm productivity was the kind of sweet spot, the special sauce of the us economy. well, we're slipping just a bit. if you look at this number at 1.2, that would be the lightest since the first quarter of 24, when it was 0.7. so we are starting to slip a bit from better levels. unit labor costs, they're moderating still, even in a less productive environment, we're expecting 3.4 comes in less a 3.0. but that's where the good news ends because sequentially it zoomed. our last look was 0.8. so if you look at three. 3% would be the highest unit labor cost since also the first quarter of 24 when it was 8.5%. now let's look at initial claims. and in the rear view mirror there's not much in the way of holiday, so seasonal adjustments probably aren't an issue. 219,000 from a slightly revised 208,000.

rick santelli will be with us. oh there he is. yeah. hey, rick i thought you wore reading glasses.t be able to. >> look. >> perfect fashionable. >> yeah. perfect for you. >> i may not be. >> able to. >> look at. >> the data quite as easy. >> apparently. >> it's something to get. >> used. >> called hard. >> core progressive. or no, far. >> right progressive. >> i have my. >> reading. >> glasses here. >> just as a backup. because i haven't done this live with progressives. >> apparently this. >> is something to get used to it. >> i ended with you or rick. you're going to give us the actual numbers. what do you just give us a little bit of a prelude before we actually see them? what should we be watching for? >> well. >> of course, everybody's. >> talking about the both the establishment. and surveys, household revisions. >> i think that i'm going to shy away from that. >> i'll let liesman. >> and some of the others. >> look at that. i'm going to concentrate on this as. >> a standalone report. and in my opinion, i think the most. important issue here. >> is. going to continue to be av

rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago. he's got some breaking economic data. rick.y on this number. the trade balance for december -98.4 billion. -98.4 billion. that is the second largest trade deficit ever since we've been recording, which goes back to january of 1992. the biggest was 101.9 billion. that was in march of 22. that was the biggest and pre-covid, you know what the biggest deficit was pre-covid. the biggest deficit was -68 billion. 30 billion smaller than the current 98.4 billion. now we're not getting a huge reaction in the marketplace because this is one of those numbers where, you know, it just doesn't jump out at you, that you need to hit the market in a certain way. what it tells me is that the globe's behavior has been modified, that deglobalization is showing up, that the us is the biggest, strongest economy in the world is showing up in these numbers. so there's many ways to take it. but the way i take it is this is a big deal. and this administration, 47 president 47 pays attention to these numbers. now, if you look at interest rates every sing