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charlotte from rosenblatt, he'd be the one in the tie -- the flag tie here today, and also steve liesman and rick santelli with us. steve, let's start with you. you have the results of the snap survey on what this morning's job number might mean, what it does to fed priorities down the road, right? >> yeah. bill, we did a cnbc snap-fed survey here, which we started at 10:00, after the jobs number came out. what we see here is that the market now firmly believes in a september taper. the average is for october. we see the top response is september, which is firmer than you saw in the prior survey we did just before the last fed meeting. so all of the rhetoric and now the economic data showing that the expectation is september, and october is the average, because some people are a little further on. moving on, when will the fed end qe? you can see that was pulled forward, june 2014 is the top response. looking at how much taper. this is the first time we've done this, guys. you can see the top response being $20 billion. the average response $22 billion. you could sa expectation being brought down

we'll get the very latest from washington and analysis from our own steve liesman and rick santelli on the next chairman. >>> meanwhile, more developments in the government versus steve cohen's hedge fund s.a.c. capital, who not only wants to shutter the firm, but it's trying to get all of the money, as well, possibly leaving cohen penniless. what's behind the move, the outcome could have long-reaching consequences. we'll deal with that. >> such an extraordinary story we're on top of. we'll bring you the latest. >>> let's look at the markets. for the week, we have weakness going on. the dow jones industrials average down about 37 points. look at that chart. having bounced off of the lows, which were reaching about 11:00 a.m. this morning. and looking very close right now to inching back to the highs of the day. down 37 points at 15,518 on the dow jones industrials average. nasdaq looks like this. similar chart pattern in terms of the bounce. bouncing off of the lows on the nasdaq, as you can see. we are positive here, just turning positive on the nasdaq, by a fraction at 3,605. last tr

welcome to forbes on fox and go with steve, rick and john, and elizabeth and rich and sabrina. emac, is the esident right or wrong? >> no, he is wrong. he said at that time he had no patience with what was going on in the irs. he found it outrageous that the irs must be held accountable. and irs workers are saying this a task force in washington d.c. basically oversaw the political targeting. the head of the irs ting to silence the opposition and didn't like the way the country was run. >> rick, usually when you hear politicians saying it is phoney and fake, usually that means we have hit on something, no? >> only when it is democrats. >> yeah, look. the president is t suddenly saying that the irs targeting of conservaves di't happen. as liz said he acknowledged it. but he is drawing a ne to the white house exhibited by the daily caller when they pretended that the irs attorney went to a meeting, which he did in the white house two days before. >> what was the pretense. he was there and we have a picture. >> take a look at that picture. you will see him with three other agency

. >> rick, we love you. steve, where do you come out? >> 190 range. is a weird month and revised away. >> because of the teacher thing? >> federal also has a problem. that would potentially be revised away. it doesn't matter. >> anyone want to make an estimate on hours? >> i think you could kick back up to the 34.6 number. >> it rose last month, right? >> it hit a high. unemployment rate is the question mark. >> we'll give you the answer when we return. the numbers we've been waiting for all morning. just a couple minutes away from the june jobs report when we come back. >>> welcome back. we are just seconds away from the june employment report ahead of the number dow futures have been strong all session. a panel here that is going to respond to this and a panel of experts plus steve liesman. eamon javers joins us now from the labor department and he has the numbers. what are they? >> up 195,000. up 195,000. unemployment unchanged at 7.6%. average hourly earnings up 10 cents to 24.01. nonfarm payroll for april rev e revised up. revised up from 175,000

we'll go in focus with steve, rich, morgan, and rick and john and mike.ich, scrap food stamps as we know it? >> we really do. we have to protect it for the people who need it. no one wants to see undernourished children or oer folks eing dog food. if we cover the cost of two and half million people who are healthy and on food stamps and working age, we have an unsustainable program. we have disability claims rise by 7 million in obama's te nure. nrick, when millions of people are getting welfare and deserve. it >> i am all for keeping a good eye on welfare. when we talk about food stamps. schopercent of the people of people on food stamps have one person working and add into what is legimate and i take rich point. t everyone on disability should be. if you add that up. it goes up to 85 percent. you have to be so careful you are not so intent on cutting you cut people who need it. >> many people here have it here. and every time we have welfare reform people attack. it in known 96 president clinton was attacked for suorting the republican reform. the late

we'll go in focus with steve, rich, morgan, and rick and

advisors, michael from destination wealth management, michael from panto portfolio and our own steve liesman and rick santelli. let's kick it off with you, steve. what did you hear from the fed? >> reporter: i thought two things happening, what was in the statement and what wasn't. let me do what was in the statement real quick. the economy was changed from being moderate to modest. a very slight downgrade to the economy. inclusion of the notion that mortgage rates have risen, and then, also, finally, concern about inflation, saying the low inflation is a potential risk to economic growth. now, here are some of the commentary that came out. there are the three things in the statement. low inflation could pose a risk to the economy. now, ian shep hardson saying, in short, the data matter but september's tapering is a good bet. dan greenhouse, for investors, all that matters is whatever you thought before, holds after. and this is the interesting comment from credit suisse. the fmoc refrains from mentioning possible tapering. credit suisse, the only one who mentioned that, but it is true, and there's a

rick santelli joins us, steve liesman is here on set. we have been watching earnings.have had significant strong earnings reports. i'm thinking about dupont coming out, talking about what it's been doing. i'm talking about travelers, and b.e. aerospace, which the ceo told us, look, this is really a long sustained market for a middle class that's growing using airfare. i want to go back to the debate yesterday where i missed, jim cramer said they had it wrong. steve what do you -- >> it's a big question out there. it's a big part of the trade, which is interesting. what's going on among economists, will the real number stand up? we have growth, which is going to be very weak. we have relatively strong job numbers. you can argue they are not strong for what they should b. i want to point you to the last three quarters. look there from q4 to 2012. look how the jobs numbers have held up on a regional basis t.gdp numbers, so you know i got estimates, in general, the jobless numbers have held up, but the growth numbers have not and we don't know the reason for that. bernanke

steve king and rick perry come out the day after praising this. i think our justice sis tomorrow is colorblind? >> from texas? i'm sure do you think it is colorblind! >> steve king says i'm sorry that it was turned into a race issue by the media. >> i think everything you didn't know about the conversation we are having and going to have is summed up by the fact that the judge would not allow the word "racial" to be used. can you say "profiling," but you can't say "racial profiling" as if it just doesn't exist. then she allows these people to go on the stand and say some other black people have invaded some other homes, what does that have to do with trayvon martin? he wasn't even that -- >> or whether george zimmerman knew that trayvon might have been -- obviously, he said he didn't know trayvon martin. he'd never seen him before. it is a dog whistle. >> there was no racial profiling. such a thing does not exist. however, if he was having some type of malthoughts, it was justified. >> here's the problem. the prosecution is supposed to be defending

rick is at the scene in chicago. and we have steve liesman in the studio. lion which means the trade balance is a trade deficit. and initial jobless claims moved down 5,000 from an upwardly revised 348,000 down to 343,000. let's dig down a bit in the trade deficit. the last time we had a level of 45 billion, ciphering, looks like november of 2012 when it stood at 46.4. and in the interim period between that data point and today we reached a minus 37 billion and that was in march to give you context, in terms of initial jobless, blur your eyes a bit, it's close to expectations, never bad news to see these under 4 or 350. it's always good. but it really is about what occurred at 8:15 eastern, and hopefully we'll see that type of strength even with all of the asterisks joe is bringing up which many agree with for friday's number from bls. we saw yields get down to 241, before our time zone which has been a pattern the last several sessions. we see buying in treasuries before we open. that makes sense, i think, as you look around the globe whether it's portugal,

. >> david, you're the cfo, you run the account books, we were just talking to steve liesman and ricklli the last hour about the funding requirements and how companies are funding themselves in this volatile rate environment. have you had any sort of change of course in terms of the way that the panda group is funding itself? >> well, we fund ourselves with traditional bank debt financing, and we just refinanced our facility in may. you know, we feel that's going to carry us through the next several years to support our growth. >> well timed. >> i was going to say, you're not concerned about the fluctuations in the treasury market now. do you sense that rates are going to go appreciably higher from here? is that why you did that? >> that wasn't a driver of the timing. it's more of a benefit from it. but it's very likely, obviously, that rates will continue the trend up. they can't stay any lower so -- >> wouldn't think so. >> certainly a lot would agree with you. david landsberg of panda group, thank you so much for being with us. >> my pleasure. thank you for having me. >>> over in e

rick santelli standing by, steve liesman and mr. kasman in studio with us. quarter gdp under new computations is bigger, up 1 1.7. if we look at consumption, it's been downgraded to 2.3 and it is currently on the new read 1.8. that's better than the 1.5 we were expecting. but 1.8 sequentially is a bit weaker. if you look at the price index, up 0.7, that's smaller than expectation and about half of the revised 1.3 from our last look. if you look at core, strip out of all-important food and energy on a quarter over quarter basis, it's up 0.8. also on the light side, and also close to half of the 1.4 last look. if we look at second quarter employment cost index, it was up a little more than expectations, up 0.5. this is not part of the gdp. this is another number. that was up 0.5. our last unrevised look was up 0.3. i can't tell you if that 1.7 would have looked different under old style or how much affect there is but it's definitely better than anticipated. and we moved up 4 basis points on the adp number on a ten-year from from 263 to 267. we've extended that

with us jpmorgan funds david kelly, vanguard's ken volpert, our own steve liesman, bob pisani and rickd guggenheim's scott minor on board soon. the dow is up another all-time high. not soaring, up 12 points and well off the highs of the day, but those highs were enough to propel us to another record. bank of america one of the dow's big winners while american express is on the downside. incredibly there have only been five down days for the s&p 500, and the nasdaq this month, so much for any summer swoon. all right. as we await the fed let's kick it off with our guests. steve liesman first, your expectations, sir, on what the fed may or may not do. >> i'm interested in how they characterize the labor market. they said it was further improving, we had the 280,000 adp. i'm not sure if the fed will go with that as their be all and end all. that will be the key. they had some guidance. remember fed chairman ben bernanke came out and made us raise our eyebrows and said that the committee basically thought that if things go as planned we're going to essentially taper litter this year and end

we will stay with that all day long and talk to the governor rick snyder and steve rattner who servedbailout chief for chrysler and gm coming up at 11:00 eastern time. >>> and how do you reach the summit? go with cramer and his "mad dash." >>> today, several companies are going public today and the next is the site groupon. more "squawk on the street" is back in a moment. my mantra? trust your instincts to make the call. to treat my low testosterone, my doctor and i went with axiron, the only underarm low t treatment. axiron can restore t levels to normal in about 2 weeks in most men. axiron is not for use in women or anyone younger than 18 or men with prostate or breast cancer. women, especially those who are or who may become pregnant and children should avoid contact where axiron is applied as unexpected signs of puberty in children or changes in body hair or increased acne in women may occur. report these symptoms to your doctor. tell your doctor about all medical conditions and medications. serious side effects could include increased risk of prostate cancer; worsening prostate s

rick santelli is standing by in chicago. economist tom higgins is joining us from boston. steveet along with our esteemed guest host richard effin bernstein is here as well. rick, the numbers are what, please? >> jobless claims moved from a slightly upwardly revised 3 who, 334,000 to 336. then that moved up 7,000. to 343,000. let's look at june durable goods, shall we? up 4.2 headline on june durable goods. pretty strong number. last month revised upward from 3.6 to 5.2. okay. let's dig through the internals, take out transportation, unchanged. there's the fly in the ointment. not that i have anything against boeing. everybody loves the idea of how many planes are on order out to 2020 but it definitely seems to have skewed the headline a bit. all right, let's look at proxies for business spending. capital goods orders, here's the issue. if you look at this sequentially, it's not as good. we're going from 2.2 to current.7. the 2.2 is double what we thought it was, they originally released it 1.1. so there are a lot of moving parts here. durables is all transportation. we can dig

exchange," ron weiner, from the -- i don't mean that politically -- steve grasso from stewart frankels, wandering the floor here, and rick santelli is here. ron, i guess this market right now just waiting for the fed, per usual, right? >> yeah, i guess so. i don't think that matters a whole lot. there's just so much cash on the line. the markets go down, they're going to bid it back up. so i think it's fed or no fed, it will have some effect. at the end of the day, where you going to put your money? >> you don't think people will be repositioning if there's more of a signal tomorrow that they're going to start tapering sooner rather than later? >> i think it will come more on the pick side and the equity side. >> that's a good point. it is about the fed, but in this week in particular, it's about a lot of earnings as well as a lot of economic data. >> yeah, it's fine. >> the jobs numbers, gdp, so, steve, let me hit you up with that. what are you seeing in terms of conviction ahead of all of the economic reports coming out this week that will likely give us another indication that we're in an anemic grower? >> i think to

"time" magazine managing editor rick stengel here to unveil the latest issue of "time" magazine, perfect for our panel on set in washington, with andrea mitchell, steveson. rick, go ahead. what's on the cover? >> it's sort of witty treatment of what's happening in egypt, world's best protesters, world's worst democrats. it's a combination of stories by our middle east correspondent carl vick and fa reed za car ya about what really is the world historical events going on in egypt. egypt, of course, was the sort of the birth of the arab spring and what we've seen now is the overturning of the first democratic election in egyptian history. that goes basically back 6,000 years. the question is, the larger question is, when is it ac teptble to overturn the results of a democratic election. the people who have done it says when you have an authoritarian figure who's undermining democracy and there are those that say look, this is a return to the military autocracy they were all protesting about a year and a half ago. it's an interesting story. it presents a strategic problem for the u.s. fareed talks about egypt as a perfect example of what he calls ill li

let's talk about that now with charlie smith, steve parker from jpmorgan private bank, chris constantineos, and our own rick santelli. thank you for joining us. >> thanks for having us. >> does it matter to you that it is a holiday-shortened week, volume likely on the downside? do these moves get exaggerated, or do you think it doesn't matter, charlie smith? >> i really don't think it matters a whole lot about volume. you know, these foreign events are going to be driving the market up and down. minor changes in volume day to day in this volume-shortened week aren't a big deal, i don't think. >> steve parker, the only thing we haven't mentioned right now is the fed, ironically. what's moving the market? just the fact it's a thinly traded market, do you think? >> yes, i think -- i think people are worried about the noise internationally. as we said, it's a holiday-shortened week. volumes will be light. the jobs report on friday. there's a lot of volatility potentially around that. i think people are taking profits after the bounce we've seen in the last couple of we s weeks. but we think this is short-term n

. >> rick, what's that 43 -- >> how much of the policy becomes somebody else's problem, do you think? steveto get your thoughts on this. if we don't see tapering beginning in september, then we've got two-day meeting in december. and then bernanke's out, which is like, does the roll back of the stimulus become somebody else's problem? >> there were so many congratulatory remarks and gratitude expressed to bernanke today, i thought one of the senators was going to get out a gold watch and give him a plaque there and give him retirement right there, maria. it sure seemed like a done deal. yes, bernanke did nothing to walk that back. there is no information to walk back the clear bet here of the story. i think it looks like -- >> you went from 80/20 to 50/50. why did you change your mind? >> i think it is interesting. i thought it was a policy in search of data. now it is a data in search of policy. >> it is nonexit strategy in search of stacks. >> okay, i don't get the nonexit strategy part of it. but i think rick, that ultimately, what happened is first of all, data did get weak in some of t

rick santelli is standing by in chicago. steve looisman is back with us in the studio.st week? >> 340. we were at 3. >> oh. all right. >> never mind. >> i had it in my head. >> the numbers. >> all right. 360 downgraded to 358 last week. then that number is going to drop 24 hour,000. it is you know a humongous drop. obviously, if correlations were right, it would be terrific news, obviously, if skill sets could go, if you hammer males, now can you operate on patience or programmed computers, it would probably mean more, i'm sure the stockmarket will probably rally on this, it should. it's good nick news, who knows anymore. we are under 250 in a ten year, but, you know, if you want to lock at that big 100 basis point run up that started in may. if you look at the last two days in june. the first two days of july. we had a pause, the first correction on that big yield move and where did that correction bring us? four sessions roughly subtle between 246 and 248. right about the levels we have been intraday testing yesterday and today, a level you want to pay attention to. w

rick: and we could learn later today the autopsy results of a guy named steve inriggs who turned up dead recently. he was on the list of possible witnesses to be called by the prosecution and was prepared to talk about how his liquor store was basically extorted by whitey bulger so that bulger could use it as sort of his criminal headquarters there in south boston. this guy turns up dead before he could ever take the stand. what do you make of it, sort of a side show here? what do you make of the whole thing? >> you kind of wonder when you have a mob trial going on and one of the key witnesses turns up dead, everybody is going to suspect something. and i wonder if this is -- this may be payback. maybe somebody else is doing this on the outside and they're saying, hey, we're going to pin more on you, bulger, or maybe bulger does not want this person to testify because there's something else this person knew so he wanted to make sure he wasn't going to testify. definitely throws another kink into this trial. rick: ashley and dan, we'll continue to follow the goings on in the courtroom. tha

rick santelli, thank you. in fact, retail sales report moving the needle more on gdp. more insight on today's data. steve> i need to correct my good friend and colleague, rick santelli, who said a very big gdp number. i'm sure he meant the news importance of it or the investment importance, not the size of it. that number's coming down, as you know, kelly. and we'll talk about that in a second. take a look at the details of the retail report. we'll show you why. retail up 0.4, less than expected. autos did their part up 2.1%, furniture doing well. department stores did poorly. food and drink establishments down 1.2%. there was some discretionary gains there, sporting goods and hobbies. but overall, here was the commentary from bmo which i thousands with ap. americans took a hit with sequestrati sequestration. that's the number that feeds into gdp. you can see how weak that is for the month of june and not terrific in the month of may either. here what happens bmo said. americans took a hit from sequestration and tack increases in the first half of the year but continued job growth and the housing recover

rick mishkin is currently an economics professor at columbia university. we have joe lavorgna, deutsche bank chief economist and cnbc contributor. he's joining me on the set. no, steve reshuto is joining me on the set, senior economist at mizuho security. and my pal cnbc senior economic reporter steve liesman right here on the set. what say you to my theory there's no tapering coming? >> i believe it partway, larry. if the economy remains this week i don't believe they're going to taper. i just don't think the economy is this weak. and i'm moved by what's on your board there. there's a dissonance there, an important dissonance between job growth and gdp growth. and the investors out there have to make a choice. is the green stuff right or is the red stuff right? and i tend to think the green stuff is right, in part because i like the data a little more. gdp is far more sunt subject to revisions, and thanks to mike darda, our friend here who writes a very good commentator, he said when income and production are at odds income wins. and i think this may be a 5% nominal, 3% real economy. if that's right i think -- >> if it were 5% nominal and 3% real, then i would have

rick: waiting for new unemployment reports to come out for june tomorrow. economic indicators to talk about right now. stevere, economic columnist for the "wall street journal." 2010 the wall street called that recovery summer which really was not, but 2013 is it more appropriate, are we out of the sinkhole now? >> i was going to use the same metaphor it has felt like the american economy has been a giant can call. this is officially the fourth year of recovery believe it or not, rick. look, this is the fourth of july, i do think the news is really improving, the american economy is starting to slip into a higher gear. i will make the production we get perhaps 200,000 jobs according to report that comes out tomorrow that will be a big improvement. lot of reasons to feel like things are picking up now. rick: for those who are not economists, can get confusing talking about the economy and why things happen and react the way they do. when ben bernanke started talking about how the economy was doing better, did not need as much help from the fed, the market started to plunge. explain to us how all that happens

rick, why don't we talk about -- let's change jikts and i would thereof hear steve's take on this.lking about rolling stone's provocative decision go with the cover they went with this week. you're an editor. you have to make those designates. obviously at "time" magazine because of the long history and a lot of other factors you're not going to make as provocative decision as say the editors of rolling stone did. what is your take? >> i'm wondering -- i don't know, joe. but i'm wonder if they actually thought it was going to be as controversial and as volatile as it has been. i'm not so sure they thought it would have the reaction it has had. and it's kind of curious. again i haven't read the story yet so i think if the story backs up the feeling of the cover that's one thing. if it doesn't that's something else. >> the story is actually very nuanced. they call him a monster on the cover. i agree with you. i think that the editors probably looked at this picture and said oh, my god look at him. this kid could have been a rock star. he looks like our readers. he looks like a lot of

a a a a >>steve: quick headlines for you on this thursday morning. in just a few hours texas governor rickanning abortion after the 20th week of pregnancy. republicans in the state legislature pushed through the tough restrictions after a filibuster by democrats. >>> police across the country are scanning and tracking all license plates, even if the driver did nothing wrong. and the records are being held indefinitely. now the aclu is calling for records to be destroyed if the drivers are not linked to a crime. good luck. >>gretchen: the verdict read not guilty and the f.b.i. confirmed there has been no evidence to support that george zimmerman was a racist. yet the justice department continues to investigate him for possible civil rights violations. should they pursue a hate crimes case? judge napolitano says yes, but here's the twist. it's not against george zimmerman. okay. so who should the justice department be going after? >> if the justice department concludes that george zimmerman was prosecuted because he was not black and to satisfy the howling of the crowds -- same crowds that a

. >> rick santelli, thank you for that. 50.9 on ism, but as you mentioned, the employment index sub50. first time since 2009. stevewe all know why. >> yeah, but i'm a little shocked that they don't take off on thursday. what's up with that, carl? >> i would think they would take it off. let me give you some details here from this report. what we find is i think they were right. they were very unclear. you had that backing up above 50. i didn't think the dip below was that big of a deal. it was right around that 50 area. also the backlog of orders ticking down. private spending unchanged. that's been another drag on the economy. you saw what happened to structures in the account when it was revised last week. lodging up. commercial down. public spending, however, was up, and i think that's for the first time certainly in the last month that we haven't had that. i'm calling this neutral, carl. i wouldn't say this helps the sense that we are -- recovery is gathering steam or that it's really losing steam right now. 50.9 right in the middle. construction spending, we would sure like to see the private sector come back

rick santelli, the stocks had been trying to work off of the low in advance of the numbers and losing ground right now. stever dive on the data and a closer look ahead to friday. steve? >> well, i'm interested in the market, carl, because it is one of the classic tests of whether the market sees good news as good news or bad news as good news, because of what it does for the fed. there it is down 12 points, and here, we are down a little bit after that number came back from where we were, and there is the nasdaq coming back up again. we will see how the market react s. we have had four data points, and two better than expected and i like the employment component of this being up. there are the reports of 188 and adp and looking for 160. and the jobless claims down 5,000 from the prior week, but the trade deficit is up unexpected $5 billion and you can see the decline in exports that perhaps reflects the weakening global economy, and that be the concern is. whereas imports the rate of increase was down from the prior month, but still up. so it looks like if you look at the trade report or at least for that mo

. >> let's get to rick santelli in chicago to talk more about what the future might hold for the fed. >> this is going to be friday with dan. let's ramble with everything. i love steveuccessor to ben bernanke in this process is being bungled. let me think whether it's the debt ceiling, tax reform, tax issues, labor issues, the keystone pipeline, i don't know, i think there's not enough bungle to go around. what do you think? >> well the fact they're playing this out in the public arena is totally wrong. it's something that should be done in private where they can make reasoned decisions not biased by somebody saying this is the person we should have as any policy should be. >> i think out in the public should be things like how we're going to work health care, how we're going to work taxes. we don't get that out in the public, we get this. the traditional media, cnbc does a great job, but traditional media, have you listened to some of these channels talk about what the fed does, what quantitative easing is? >> they say what they think is going to get the public i can sighted. often times it's not exactly how it should go. it creates more of an issue than it should.

rick santelli with "the santelli exchange." >> a couple things have occurred today that gave me the idea for this exchange. the first is, and i really look forward to these, one of steveat people in the marketplace or economists in the strategizing or analyzing business, what they think. if you know what they think, especially if you're an investor, that is a very useful tool. another issue today was the release of the conference board consumer confidence. obviously, it is a form of a survey. but there are dangers to this form of thinking. consider this, if we look at some of the biggest issues that have made our country and many countries better over the last hundred years, most of those improvements, whether it's civil rights or who can vote, have been minority opinions. so if just a thumbs up vote or a survey were taken, some of these issue would say have never changed or given such a nice tailwind to the benefits of a grand society like the united states or much of europe. i mean, there's a lot of countries that enjoy freedom. but yet if you look at what happened in the arab spring a couple years ago, especially in egypt, just because you have democratic elections