also with us republican strategist and msnbc political analyst rick tyler.ughn. were you sensing anyone winning over the hearts and minds of iowa voters? >> how about this? let's start from the fact that it felt like an event where folks were actually trying to pick a candidate. i hung out in iowa quite a bit with our friend rick tyler eight years ago. really when donald trump came onto the scene, he absorbed all the oxygen out of any room he went into. as the years went on, republican events turned into maga events, trump events, red hats, trump, trump. any republican that went on stage from a campaign event to a county event, donald trump is great, donald trump is this. what was so markbly different this weekend was the fact that not a single candidate mentioned donald trump by name and folks were actually open-minded about other candidates not named donald trump. i want to let you hear two of my interactions with two of the candidates. >> what does it say that donald trump is not here? >> i'm just happy to be here. i love the people here. i think this is

let's get a quick check on the bond market with rick santelli in chicago rick >> hi, tyler indeed prior to 10:00 eastern, interest rates were higher across the treasury curve twos through 30s something happened at 10:00 eastern to alter that. you can clearly see now we're close to unchanged across the entire curve what was it? it was data. whether it was s&p global, ism, the data was on the weak side. so look at the ism prices paid three-year low at $56.2. and the employment gauge dips under 50 at 49.2, to find a lower level of employment on that index, you have to go back to june of '22 the response was swift look at a two-year note yield. look at the way it dropped granted, it has recovered, but as i said earlier, at 449, we're hovering basically unchanged and fed fund futures if you recall, we were hovering 55%, 60% with regard to what would occur at the july meeting. well, now the july meeting, as you see the july futures, they popped a bit on the 10:00 data they have eased back just a smidge, but for all practical purposes hovering right at the 50/50 mark and for the june meeting,

lower today along with sock prices rick santelli tracking the action for us from chicago hi, rick >> hi, tylernow, they weren't always lower on the session as a matter of fact, let's start at the beginning, housing starts, shall we everybody was impressed. big number over 1.6 million so let's do a chart from 2006 to right before covid hit in february of 2020 because i want you to see in january of 2020 we're at 1,572,000 starts you see it on the right. that at the time it was released was the highest level of starts since 2006 now let's put the rest of the chart. so yes, we popped today, but it is still higher than it was precovid and it's higher than it was going back to that 14-year high why does that matter because maybe this is an anomaly, many are thinking it's a big turn in housing but quite possibly it could be a one-month off considering where it was precovid and all the issues since. how did that move markets? as i said, yields were higher. look at 2s and 10s on one chart. there it is at 8:30 eastern. boy, it popped and then that was it the buying started to come in. and the buying co

rick. >> hi, tyler indeed and before we get to the traders i think we should sum up how the markets responded to jay powell in front of the house financial services committee look at a two-day chart of two-year very sensitive to fed policy pretty much sideways not a huge effect by our chairman as he was answering q&a. you look at july fed fund futures, they start on the day that we had cpi. the next day we did not see a rate hike. and you see it's basically been going sideways so percentages, 70-plus percent they're going to hike a quarter in july. but a little less than 20 for september. the dollar index is where all the action was look at what happened at 10:00 eastern. it did a swan acapulco dive right off the charts let's go see if we can find dave i know you're busy, there's a lot of action here but quickly let's talk about jay powell i didn't see the percentages change -- >> oh, yeah. >> -- but what do you think the markets heard when he was talking today in front of the house financial services committee? >> i think they heard he was just buying time he could have raised rates, chose n

>> completely done i thought maybe the 4% 10-year >> you mean the fed's done, rick >> yes >> thanks to our job panel, tyler box, which included a chihuahua that calls chihuahua lucky. we had paris hilton in there and we put it on for a second. >> that's hot. >> they're dying in the back >> they are? >> yeah. >> i turned it off >> coming up, we'll have more on what the new jobs number can mean about the fed's next move and former philly fed president charles plosser will join us and check out a bloomberg report about they're in talks with a mobile service, reports are amazon is talking with t-mobile and verizon. what do you think? ♪when the day that lies ahead of me♪ ♪♪ ♪seems impossible to face♪ ♪a lovely day (lovely day)♪ ♪(lovely day) (lovely day)♪ ♪(lovely day)♪ a bank that knows your business grows your business. bmo. ♪♪ ♪ a bunch of dead guys made up work, way back when. ♪ ♪ it's our turn now we'll make it up again. ♪ ♪ we'll build freelance teams with more agility. ♪ ♪ the old way of working is deader than me. ♪ ♪ we'll scale up, and we'll scale down ♪ ♪ before you're six feet underground. ♪ ♪ yes, t

i want to thank our panel, julia, tyler, rick, steve.optimistic. i always say that, right coming up -- that's my answer. i look ahead or am i optimistically cautious? >> cautiously optimistic is better >> we've talked about it three or four times already this morning. economist and author judy shelton. next, though, the door to the ipo market cracks open just a little bit and at oerwhth there's like three people stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) with the push of a button, constant contact's ai tools help you know what to say, even when you don't. hi! constant contact. helping the small stand tall. what do you see on the horizon? constant contact. uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing

tyler, have a very good father's day. >> same to you, rick >>> let's get to kate rodgers for the cnbcews update. >> reporter: daniel ellsberg has died the "washington post" said he died at the age of 92 from pancreatic cancer. the disclosure of the pentagon papers deepened the u.s. divide over the vietnam war it was known as the watergate scandal. >>> the american woman accused of helping to kill her mother in bali nine years ago changed her plead to guilty. heather mack was convicted of helping her then boyfriend murder her mom so she could gain access to her $1.5 million trust fund she was set to go to trial in the u.s. in august for conspiracy to commit a murder in a foreign country. she will now be sentenced in december. >>> president biden travelled to connecticut this afternoon to speak at a gun safety summit it comes on the one-year anniversary of the passing of the first significant piece of federal gun safety legislation in three decades the law strengthens background checks tyler, back to you. >> kate, thank you. >>> ahead on "power lunch," there's two paths ahead for region

> looking forward to that the ten-year yield like tyler mentioned up somewhat after the cooler cpi data today. shorter term yields are dropping make rick santelli can explain, joining us now >> reporter: there is always an answer to every question you look at 2s and 10s on one chart and we know the cpi data has something for everybody. 2s and 10s, same look at the chart. they moved about the same and the range, we're still kind of in that rain in-law. let the charts answer. when i used to trade in the pits if interest rates were going up i expected the economy was getting better and i think that is what stocks are telling us at the moment see what mike thinks here is the big question asked does it surprise you that the s&ps, the dow, the nasdaq all look so good when interest rates are going up what do you think of that relationship >> interest rates have been the primary driver of volatility this year. people looked at unemployment for what would happen -- they looked at cpi for this reason. naturally they looked at the fed. of late these haven't been big volatility counts for the market we haven't seen the market reacting dramatically

rick said, it represents us as a whole. i respect everyone why not respect the flag where we are especially uphold the constitution and defend our people. >> ainsley: jonathan, tylerou are such role models, god bless you. the second hour of "fox & friends" starts right now. >> it was an act of self-defense. >> jordan williams has been arrested after another incident of self-defense. >> the day before a grand jury indicted daniel penny. >> a defendant is allowed to use force equal to the force presented. >> i'm going to run for your children and mine. >> francis suarez says he is ready for a new job to seek the republican nomination. >> but it's a big hill to climb. it's the former presiden

rick said, it represents us as a whole. i respect everyone why not respect the flag where we are especially uphold the constitution and defend our people. >> ainsley: jonathan, tyler, benjamin, we respect all three of you, thank you for your service and what you do. >> thank you very much. >> ainsley: you are such role models, god bless you. the second hour of "fox & friends" starts right now. >> it was an act of self-defense. >> jordan williams has been arrested after another incident of self-defense. >> the day before a grand jury indicted daniel penny. >> a defendant is allowed to use force equal to the force presented. >> i'm going to run for your children and mine. >> francis suarez says he is ready for a new job to seek the republican nomination. >> but it's a big hill to climb. it's the former president leading the pack. >> it's time for believes in america's power. >> it's tough to remain positive sometimes. >> there is mental toughness. physical toughness, how do you not have those things? i don't know how he could have made it. i do believe it was an absolute blessing that he does not remember that. >> hail, thunderstorms, and damaging tornadoes ripping