rob arnott is with us from newport beach, california.t to start with s&p versus the shanghai composite chart. looking at the relative strength in terms of the ratio between the two, if you look at the levels we are hitting now, history will tell us over the past couple of decades this is where we see a bounce back for chinese stocks. do you think that's going to happen, given the selloff, if you look at the metro -- macro picture, when it comes to the trade war, has it materialized? has the depth of that selloff really surprised you? no, it hasn't surprised me at all. the nature of the trade tensions exacerbate any downside risk. the nature of bargains is very simple, bargains get there i didn't of inflicting pain -- by dint of inflicting pain and losses. there's no such thing as a bargain in the absence of pain and losses. the fear creates the bargains. is china a bargain now? it's getting there. is it likely to rebound soon? who knows? the thing that's interesting is buying a little bit more as it goes down ensures that you have maximu

i can give you data on that from people like jeremy grant, rob arnott they all come with the same fair value. if you look at things like the p/e, you look at it smooths the effect of higher earnings. earnings are starting to disappoint 76% of companies disappointed on guidance and we are closer to a recession than people think. i would disagree with the idea that things are getting better i think we're going to have two hand handle >> all of these things go to the issue of when stocks are overvalued, we have one small period at the end of the great financial crisis where we got to under valued, just a little bit, but we didn't go cathartic down to a washout scenario. >> the cyclical earnings has been above average going back for as long as we have data for, i think, something like 95% of the last 25 years. if you were waiting, you were saying there was only ever one opportunity to buy stocks and you would have been selling soon after. we never, ever sell -- since 1990 up 670% that's before you include dividends. do we agree on that? you've never had an opportunity to buy below fair val