we talked with rob kaplan today and his answer on the likelihood of a recession was, it is all aboutt is why i do not think it will happen. there will be things in the survey right now, to developments we are watching. one, how they impact of the financial and -- financial volatility is impacting consumers and wage growth trends and how they affect consumer confidence. what you can see in the chart is the stock market volatility is taking a toll. probability that a consumer will see higher stock prices is the lower -- lowest it has been in two years. that is concerning, because we talk about consumer spending some of those are things that supported. support it. you have the stock market access with your balance sheet. the wage growth, again we saw in the survey today that the probability of higher income a year from now perceived by consumers is now back under 50%. so consumers now see it less likely than not, that they will get higher income a year from now. joe: also, this morning we got .mployment cost index alas, people were excited because that number was taking off and then it

don't forget, michael mckee interviews rob kaplan. ♪ tom: good morning, everyone.e and i will be in switzerland next week. look for that on tuesday. it will still be the topic of the moment. it's oil. kevin, what has changed on oil? i look at the technical chart. it's in freefall. color the freefall that we see western mark --? kevin: there is no doubt there is no investment on the sideline -- supply-side. given the massive overhang we've got in stock and the week start in oil demand. tom: what you going to say about the responsiveness or elasticity of that production or supply western mark what you looking for around the world to find the adult will clear the market? kevin: we are looking for a massive slowdown in supply. opec has been increasing. the market is concerned about how we can fit in iranian oil production. they are making fast progress. had a warm winter. the demand is not there. the prices will be pushed down until the market sees very clearly a much more dramatic supply response bringing things back into balance. at the moment, there is little sign o

down there is probably not going to be a lot .f price increase going forward i know you talked to rob kaplan is not seeing big inflationary pressures. i think that is why they are able to take rates up. michael: you have a big presence in china and emerging markets. how'd you see the global economy in 2016? is china something for corporate america to worry about the way wall street is concerned? thomas: i am bullishthomas: on china. we have a great team, a strong track record the last several years of growing at 20 plus percent. good organic growth in those markets. i think you're still seeing gdp per capita grow which means more people are entering the middle class and can afford products like ours. we are still seeing double-digit category growth. we had innovation on top of that . we expanded into more cities in china and that has been able to fuel growth at a higher level. there is no question that the emerging markets are slowing down but we still are bullish on our growth prospects in that part of the world. michael: what is your focus for 2016? will you be looking at acquisitions? bra

. >> robert kaplan was very well known at goldman sachs and harvard, but as a policy maker, they don't know where you are coming robwould you characterize yourself as a hawk or a dove? >> probably as a centrist. what i mean is time quite open -- i quite open -- i am quite open to looking at new information. i don't rate unemployment versus inflation. i don't come in with a preconceived point of view as a hawk or a dove, i probably more focused on diagnosing what to do and how to do it. i would call myself a centrist and i think you will see me at times advocate positions that sound hawkish and at times giving in on the facts on what my analysis is an advocate positions that seem dovish. betty: that is a centrist. looking at a live picture of secretary of state john kerry speaking in washington at the national -- he has made some remarks about the release of the american sailors by the iranians, saying he is pleased of the sailors were safely returned. he thank the iranian authorities for the cooperation and said the peaceful and quick resolution critical.omacy is by all indications, the american sailors were well t