robert kaplan: we have two contravening forces.al forces, a very tight labor market, at or near full employment, everywhere i look, in my district, labor shortages, certainly for skilled labor but also for labor across the board. pressure.create which historically, the wage pressure translates into prices. technology-and able to disruption, that you are referring to, it is limiting pricing power in businesses. the extent that they see which pressure did come out of margins likely, and be translated into prices. that is that tension. the way this shakes out, my guess is that we will see some firming in inflation pressures this year. see inflation running away from us. i think the forces of automation and technology-enabled disruption will be muting for inflation but they also put a great onus on. policymakers to improve education levels. math, science and reading, we innked 25th industrialized countries. we need to improve skills training in our junior colleges but we need to wrap this up dramatically. we are not keeping up with the

robert kaplan mention the role of one belt, one road.1.2 billion people who still don't have access to the internet. tom: we will come back. we will continue with robert kaplan. my books ofs one of this summer as well. front and center for secretary mnuchin, our conversation today good morning in canada taylor: it is an acquisition that could transform the supermarket business in the u.k. a $10 billion deal would leave it as the biggest shareholder. it would create a supermarket giant that i could surpass tesco in market share. going all ins are on gasoline. hedge funds have agreed that prices are the highest on record. futureswhen gasoline are the highest since august. denmark is having second thoughts about so through these on electric cars. dropped tremendously after the government phased out subsidies. quest we had a tax incentive. you can discuss whether it should be bigger. i will not disprove that. is about theaper supply side, said his beat. i have announced as well that we will present a package. resemble --ore, visit bloomberg.

and an exclusive conversation with robert kaplan.

and an exclusive conversation with robert kaplan shares more light on the path of policy.

and an exclusive conversation with robert kaplan shares more

and an exclusive conversation with robert kaplan shares more light on the path of policy.

and an exclusive conversation with robert kaplan. >> my own view is we ought to be raising rates.uliette: and a week of twist, turns shocks and surprises, top , interviews at depth and perspective. >> there is a momentum of threat, counter threat. >> i don't think the united states government has any deep understanding of china. >> it is too early to give up on the global growth story. juliette: all straight ahead on "bloomberg best." ♪ juliette: hello and welcome. i'm juliette saly. this is "bloomberg best," your weekly review of the most important business news, analysis and interviews from bloomberg television around the world. let's start with a day by day of -- look at the top headlines. on monday, the embattled tenure of the ceo deutsche bank came to an end. >> deutsche bank advisory board has named a new ceo, as part of a sweeping overhaul of senior management. become deputy ceo has spent his entire career at europe's largest investment bank and is currently head of the private and commercial arms. the change. fill us in on why him. >> they have had losses for three years i

an exclusive conversation with robert kaplan. >> my own view is, we ought to be raising rates.uliette: and a week of twist, shocks and surprises, top interviews, in-depth. >> there is a momentum of said-counter fed. think the united states government has any understanding of china. >> too early to give up on the global growth story. oniette: all straight ahead "bloomberg best." ♪ juliette: hello and welcome, i'm juliette saly, this is "bloomberg best," your weekly review of the most important business news, analysis and interviews from around the world. let's start with a day by day of the top headlines. on monday, the embattled tenure of the ceo deutsche bank came to an end. >> deutsche bank advisory board has named a new ceo, as part of a sweeping overhaul of management. has spent his entire career at europe's largest investment bank and is head of the private and commercial arms. losses fore had three years in a row. that is one of the main reasons. digging deeper into this feud that started between john and paul, john and the board, you see that the bonuses he paid to inves

dallas fed president robert kaplan spoke exclusively with bloomberg television and said he is not makingustments to his outlook. robert: for my base case, three rate increases this year. two more from where we are. and so one of the things i focus on, on the short-term, the cyclical developments, i think, i still believe 2018 will be a relatively solid year for gdp growth, 2.5% or a little more. but you have also heard me say that i think the big structural drivers of the economy, aging demographics, slowing workforce growth, sluggish productivity mainly due to skills of our workforce and weaker education levels, and the third issue which is i am increasingly worried about is high levels of government debt to gdp, which may provide a headwind for economic growth. i think the short-term growth may look solid. and i think we will make progress on unemployment, labor slack, i think you will see some firming and inflation. but i will also say 2019 and 2020, you will see growth moderating. and so i think for me the path of rate increases is likely a little bit flatter. and i think we should b

fromallace: he is divorced robert kaplan's world by choice.olitik is social media and reaching out to his base. he doesn't do realpolitik with heads of state. tom: i know you were going there. can secretary of state pompeo bring us over to an adult discussion of international relations? whether you agree or disagree with mr. kaplan? mr. wallace: he could, i don't think that's his motivation. i think he wants to stay very close to the president and i don't think he is going to expand the conversation. he is likely to sharpen the conversation. secretary mattis is the person to watch here. what about tom bolton? tom: john bolton. mr. wallace: ambassador bolton what about tom bolton? tom:comes to the white house wia lot of experience -- comes to the inner circle with a lot of experience. he is a megaphone for the president, he's not going to attempt to change the president. issues hard on many relating to international affairs, if not harder, and the president himself. tom: let's go back to general mattis. he is the one to watch. what is the exhau

and axis of conversation with robert kaplan shares the policy. >> we should be raising rates.n a wake of twists, turns, jumps, and surprises, our top interviews of depth and's protective. >> i don't think the u.s. government has any deep understanding of china. it is too early to give up on the global growth story. >> it is straight ahead, on bloomberg best. ♪ >> hello and welcome, i'm juliette saly. best," youromberg weekly review of the most important business news, analysis, and news around the world. let's take a look at the top headlines. on monday, the embattled tenure ceo of deutsche bank came to an end. deutsche bank supervisory board has named a new ceo to replace john as part of a sweeping overhaul. spent hisuty has entire career at the largest investment bank and has had private and commercial arms. fill us in on why now. >> they have had losses for three years in a row. if you dig deeper into this feud cryantarted between john and paul, you see the bonus says crayn paid to investment bankers. it didn't go down well across germany. been the biggest story in finance

robert kaplans speaking exclusively to bloomberg's kathleen.ings assignment back into the conversation. the rollcall of calm from the , they don't seem to stress about trade worth yet. what does it mean for the dollar? -- fax that they aren't -- fact that they aren't stressed yet. if we move into a world where maybe just for the moment, people are a little more focused on it yields, you should see a dollar that is significantly higher. fed historically has been concerned when things have come along to disturb markets. think about how cautious they were at the end of 2014, the start of 2015 and the start of 2016. i would argue that if you start to see the trade tensions start to feed into rather more attitude, i would say the fed starts to make more of a difference. nejra: you said the dollar is likely to move significantly higher. this that mean that yields moves higher from here or does the dollar need to play catch-up? simon: i think the dollar needs to play catch-up. another great example of this is sterling. if you look at where the yield ,

and soon.won't get resolved speaking exclusively to bloomberg, robert kaplan warned of the potentialage if the dispute is prolonged. >> i'm still hopeful when we look back to your or two from now, you will see little actually done in the way of tariffs that were implemented. that would still be my base case and i think we are in the early innings of this, but i can tell you this, having lived in asia myself and benefit -- been a business person, i don't think these issues will be resolved quickly. it will be a minimum of months to resolve the reciprocal trade issue and the intellectual property and technology transfer issue could take years to resolve. malaysia has announced its election will take place may 9. the campaign for the showdown between the caretaker prime minister and the nation's longest-serving prime year -- premier will be shortened to 11 days. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. matt: juliette, thanks for that. stocks in asia climbed and u.s. equity futures rose after china's pre

interview you won't want to miss tomorrow on daybreak asia speaking to the dallas fed president robert kaplanng. that is 10:30 sydney, 8:30 p.m. new york. betty: the former chairman of the export import bank of the u.s. weighing in on how the u.s.-china trade spat is going to impact businesses. what is missing in the tit-for-tat. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> it is the beginning. i hope we are not going to have a full on trade war. >> we need to understand the difference between noise and signal. preposterous.e is it is quite understandable. important cars, 4.5% in the u.s., 25% in china, so who is the true manipulator? i can agree with some of trump's positions. >> i think we are in a trade war . people speak about the moving trade war. i think it is there. it is possibly a looming expansion of the trade war. >> the chinese are sophisticated in the way they negotiate. i think -- >> it is a danger we may end up in a direction we don't want to. yes, how do we minimize that? >> the trade war is not a zero-sum game. it is a negative sum game. in trade war's everybody is a loser. that is what we are

mark: that was robert kaplan. he says it's too early to assess the impact.ery little has been implemented. >> the subject has been implemented. that, i think the market will always price probabilities. are notcts of tariffs often linear or very straightforward. tariffs, youmpose end up taxing your exports as well. a level of collateral damage. you need to create subsidies to offset that. it's complicated. when you look at the global setup, the redirection with in the late 80's, japanese firms had to start producing in the u.s. to avoid quotas on import restrictions. these created changes for the landscape. let's not forget there are also winners. there's another one that steps in. is implication straightforward. the market is always priced. mark: he reiterated just reiterated his view that the fed will raise rates two more times. are you a three person or a four person? >> they forecast three more this year. that isarket is priced, a lot for the market. you have reached the ceiling. if anything happens between now and the end of the year, the market will nee

even last week when i spoke with the president of the dallas federal reserve, robert kaplan, he said we're expecting growth for 2.7%. come 2019, 2020, we're talking more growth. are businesses anticipating a slow down? >> not the ones i'm talking to you. they have a spirit of optimism and growth. they're willing to start new businesses, grow businesses, add more employees and expand facilities. >> so why does nancy pelosi call it crumbs and armageddon? >> isn't that all they have to say? they didn't vote for it. now they have to put it down in spite of the ed of the economic impact it's having. >> what is the big issue when you speak to small businesses? is it access to credit? what is the barrier there? >> when i started at sba, the big issue was taxes. now we passed the tax reform and regulatory reform, now you're hearing work force. we have jobs, the great momentum in the country. we need more people for the jobs. >> a great point. the skill set. >> absolutely. >> great to see you. >> thank you. >> we'll be right back with breaking news on the shooting suspect at the waffle house.

i spoke with robert kaplan. we may see growth of 2.7% or so. because of higher rates and a lack of workers. your thoughts on things slowing down in the coming years. this quarter was a seasonal issue. it actually came in higher than the market expected. longer-term we will bring you what he said. we know that our good friend who joins us regularly as an issue here. that's 70% of economic growth. we sat go up in the fourth quarter. with the big jobs report from april which is out on friday. it was somewhat week in march. with the unemployment rate dropping to 4%. another had win for consumers are rising costs. higher shipping and raw material prices. then we are going to be talking about the big eye word more than we had been talking about it. tariffs are a price hike. given the economic environment that's why i've never what i've never understood what they did what they did when they did it. we will be back with more of this. catch my exclusive interview this morning. a massive telecom merger now faces antitrust scrutiny. they agree to a 26 bil

alix: to that point, bloomberg spoke to robert kaplan to see how he sees rate rises. say. robert: we should raise it rates and do it rightly and patiently because the underlying drivers in the economy are still challenging, even though the short-term may look solid. alix: do have a 5-30 spread? in theey have been range, but flattening care you are seeing the front end of the curve. the two-year and five-year under performing. seeink we will continue to the flattening, particularly if mr. kaplan is correct and we keep on having three rate hikes a year. the curve will have to continue to flatten. that will continue to worry people as we get flatter. david: when we look at rates, we pay attention to producer prices. we also look at how much we are borrowing. the legit office came out with a projection yesterday that i found remarkable. -- the budget office came out with a projection yesterday that i found remarkable. they will hit one trillion my 2020. there is a chart you can pull up that shows just how far in the hole we are going. ira: estimates will be higher. they w

she will speak to the dallas fed president robert claflin -- robert kaplan. 8:30 p.m.hing out of new york. china's escalating trade disputes with the u.s. will dominate the agenda as president a policy forunches asia. we have a reporter -- he is expected to address the trade tariffs for the first time. we are looking ahead to the keynote. one thing coming up is is reminder that xi is also playing to a domestic audience. yeah, absolutely and especially after the national people's congress where you pushed through his constitutional reforms to become sort of the job for life leaders here in china. he does not want to show any weakness. so it is interesting. our 15th consecutive year conservative -- covering this forum, and the u.s.-china trade war, spat if you want to call it brewing up this tropical island where xi jinping will be speaking. it is an interesting dilemma that president xi has to make or has in that speech tomorrow because before this trade row started gaining steam, it was expected xi jinping would use this occasion to announce a further opening up of the

if i were a fed member i would say [indiscernible] we heard from robert kaplan yesterday out of beijingn the dallas fed president mentioned, the fed does not overreacted trade developments like trade. they also said when it came to negotiations he things these trade issues will be resolved quickly. it seems it is a bit counterintuitive, but at what point do you think the fed will have to act on these trade tensions? oh boy, i don't know. they are going to want to see leasting in the way of at near at hand best guess evidence. they will collect information. depends how it plays out. if it is, i will raise you 10 more or 20 more type stuff, one nation to the other, that is one thing. me the most is, what happens if it takes a one-off? and rather than just raising the what if italties, this, we,ou are doing most likely china, are going to expand our influence in the area, despite how we know that will upset you. as a matter of fact, we are doing it because it will upset you. that crosses another line. is taiwan.vious places inare other their home area where they can do that and then it bec

we have be the busiest seen in weeks, we will kickoff monday with atlanta fed president and robert kaplanill both be kicking off on monday as well as neel kashkari. incomingiams is the fed president. lots of eyes will be on him and then we have bill dudley and actuallylie evans will be speaking twice this week. i only just mentioned this to say that investors have enough going on. now they will really have to pay attention to all of the speeches will bel be -- that happening by these fed speakers to say that what be heard from the minutes is that you will be -- will they be reflected by these comments? what does that mean for the yield curve? yvonne: it continues to flatten. we saw it was the finest in 10 years on friday. we heard the like of eric rosengren and he said the fed is still too slow and comes to raising rates and that this low unemployment, low inflation scenario we have been seeing will not last too long. he is fearing that the fed is going to overheat an event. speakers this week will have to be in line with that given this parade we will say with some of the speakers. is on

read bremmer and then go read his colleague, robert kaplan's "the return of mark: polo." -- "the return gravity of the world both politically and asia.ically is in he sees the road of china building out pakistan and building ports that will go to iran. , it's this is natural where the goods and services and people are going to flow and the chinese are playing the long game. started to endy when after the soviet union collapsed the states said we are not going to rebuild them. we're not going to bring them back. that was the end. but wed expand nato couldn't think they could or long about how we are going to maintain u.s. led globalism for the markets. the onesse are building out a global model and it is not globalist. all roads go to beijing. francine: who has the strongest road? the american relationship with china is vastly more important. the chinese are going to invest a lot more in europe has the americans will stop the chinese on technology. i'm not worried on trade. the u.s. china trade relationship is going to stay strong. there will be some tariffs that get implemented over the

robert kaplan out with his new book "the return of marco polo.", but is it nostalgia for the 13th century? what is the reality of building what marco polo lived years ago? guest: i think they are trying to find new markets and diversify their risk away from the west. i think when we try to put everything in context about what is going on today, we can see , these little battles we are having, as we are uncertain as to where they want to head, and they are uncertain exactly what we want. china ispresident of looking to the indian ocean as one part of that new silk road. he is obviously looking west through his deeply troubled western china. the president of the united states i would say of looking west to west virginia. says inssor roubini italy, there's almost two dialogues going on in this traits that. >> what are the very best trade spat -- trade spat. >> the u.s. and china fundamentally don't understand each other and we tend to talk past each other. i think you are seeing that now. the president's actions, the administration's actions probably

robert kaplan and his new book -- and we will have him on when i am in washington next week -- he isdea ise is you are right, there no good answer, but there has to be a best lousy answer. what is that for president trump? what is that for mr. macron? sean: i think it is reluctant engagement, reluctant continued low-level engagement. try and get people out of there, clear that you are able to get out, do not see the entire political ground, but you do not want to be in there a few are this president. that is his least good option. that is not a good option. tom: you just mentioned the monday morning answer, which is we have got to get people out of their. doe mr. trump needs to john mr. putin he has got to get the russians out of there for their own safety? sean: i think that would reveal mr. trump's weakness, but i do no because i do not think he is going there, and the long-term engagement is there to back up this regime, to try to win some stake in the future. i think russia come in its spoiler role round the world, has selected syria as one of the places it is willing to be a spo

going to slow down, dagen they have got a map of balance to walk the federal reserve does, even robert kaplanans just as missouri two more rate hikes expecting 2.6 or 2.7% growth this year thinks plummets to 1 and 3/4 percent by end of '19 there is narrative things are going to slow down big way. dagen: that is something stephanie pomboy felt about this economy we were talking about the federal reserve winding down that balance sheet, that is is is they have laid out the plan to do that, and it would require something really extreme dramatic in the economy to change course at this point. on that note. and i don't think people really understand what this economy looks like with markets look like would the all that buying by federal reserve, one thing i will just point out. and it is to kind of pivot a little bit watch nafta negotiations going on reassume behind closed doors with robert lighthizer trade representative, representatives from canada trying to do something by end of next week, president trump is threatening to change pull out of it on his own, can he do it? throughs lot of pushback

robert kaplan said he is expecting one is expecting one and three-quarter% growth at the end of 2019. we will see about that with these rate hikes. i'm not buying it. >> allotted goodness in the economy right now. the images starts coming off in the 19th and 20th and we have to start worrying. right as we go into the presidential election in 2020, the economy will keep going at this pace. maria: we'll talk about that. kentucky congressman member andy barr is that spirit white house press secretary president trump sean spicer joins us with ronald reagan's budget director david stockman is here and senior judicial analyst judge andrew napolitano. plus dr. mike is here with us. don't miss a moment. a big three hours coming up we kick it off right here at this. extending losses this morning after the doubt plunge better than 620 points at one point yesterday that was the low. climbed back to 424 and the doubt. 121 points lower on the nasdaq. caterpillar weighed on the dow. been sharply traded lower by the end of the day with a big increase in the prices deal. rising treasury yield also at

closing bell today plus, two fed president's expected to speak today, raphael bostic and dow's robert kaplansman has an interview with william dudley at 10:00 a.m. on ""squawk on the street." they haven't budged 2349 last hour dow futures up by 172 points nasdaq up by close to 50 points and s&p up by 17 points. >>> russian putin vladimir putin said more tax on syria will bring more chaos congressman john garamendi is joining us we've had a lot of discussions, congressman. the last thing i said to colonel jacobs, there are well-intentioned people on both sides of this issue that on one hand say that a chemical attack cannot go -- you need to make a statement that it's unacceptable and others that say what's our end game why is this our responsibility i can't tell where you come down you want congress to be involved, i think, is that -- >> well, two things. first of all, we cannot let chemical attacks go without an answer and certainly this was an answer the other part of it is it's an answer for which there is no legality this is an attack on a foreign country, an act of war and therefore con

laura coming up, joining us first fox business exclusive president of federal reserve bank dallas robert kaplanou -- >> thank you for joining us we have been talking about the economy here, and how things are booming congratulations to you and colleagues and your handling of things but first let me ask you about president george one of the many bush, and george w. bush you know g.w.. >> i do, and you have met barbara. >> yes my similgreat model for in united states. >> you know coming up tough as nails, leaders also tough as nails not afraid to say the way it is i like a lot let's talk about america's economy what is happening in dallas is that true do you see strength a bit of a boom happening here. >> texas is booming, we expect job growth, just in state of texas this year, of over 3% means gdp growth will be higher. for us, it means diversified economy migration to state, the energy business has gone from a headwind to a tailwind a lot of things going. >> job growth 3% this year? >> yeah. >> incredible so you would think gdp was a couple moves higher than that. >> certain -- higher than 3% 3

the outlook america's economy i sat down exclusively with federal reserve bank dallas president robert kaplanleaded. >> dallas fed estimating u.s. growth 2 and one half 2 3/4% in 2018, unfortunately, we think growth will moderate next year, and we think by 2020, will be down to 1 3/4 to 2% stuff there from increasing debt to gdp when this recent legislation did, could turn into a headwind, because we think we are on an unsustainable path of debt growth in the united states. >> joining me founding partner alpha one expect a partners dan niles, you have a similar reaction expectation as mr. kaplan right. >> yeah i actually do, when i look at 2019 i think you are going to see a lot of stuff there central banks put into markets starting to come out again, obviously we know federal reserve is raising rates, but we have seen central bank balance sheets and an from 6.4 trillion to 20.6 trillion, i think the ecb is going to start raising rates next yeeshg i think whether you could have a real problem. >> so you said, you were saying that you are expecting at some point sizable sell of in stocks. >> i