and the first one i reach out to is robert lucas. robert lucas, brilliant guy, growth theorist, really wanted him in the book, and he says, you know, i'm kind of busy. i'm not 100% sure i can fulfill this. i said, all right, i better go out and get myself an insurance policy. so i approached vernon smith, another nobel who i knew, and i said, vernon, would you write a chapter for us? and i pitched a chapter to him. he came back and said, no. so i'm thinking to myself, this isn't very promising, i might have to go back to the president and say we got a little out ahead of you, sir. then vernon then comes back to me and says, you know, there's a chapter i would like to write, not the one you mentioned. i've been studying the housing crisis, and i've been looking at every recession since the great depression. and what i'm finding is that housing has actually led us into every recession except for two, and out of every recession. it's actually a better indicator than business investment on both the coming recession, the severity of the r

the first one to reach out to is robert lucas. a brilliant guy and and he says i'm kind of busy. i'm not sure. welcome all right i will go out and get myself an insurance policy. i approached him and wrote another nobel and said vernon would you write a chapter for us and i pitched the chapter to him and he came back and he said no so i'm thinking to myself this isn't very promising. i have to go back to the president and say -- he then comes back to me and says you know, there is a chapter i would like to write, not the one you mentioned. i have been studying the housing crisis and i've been looking at every session since the great depression, and what i am finding is that housing has actually led every recession except for two and out of a freeze of recession it's a better indicator than the business investment on the severity recession as well as the recovery. in the two exceptions don't disproof his research and after world war ii when a was a very mild recession and the other was in 2001. i said what's interesting. he goes a little further and he says the exception of 2001 h