alix: we have a nobel laureate joining us, robert shiller. we are talking about psychology. tdown may not have material impact on gdp, but psychologically how long does it go on and what is the impact? robert: the psychology is affected by the government shutdown, which is a longer saga of polarization in our country, but it is also affected by -- we cannot forget that the stock market is a longer-term vehicle. people are looking ahead to the possibility of a recession that my last for awhile. they are thinking that this been might be over - -boon might be over. they have been coming into the market and trading kind of wildly. david: you are a student of expectations in the marketplace and that affects the economy as well as what goes on with the markets, so how quickly are these changed a how stickynd -- and how sticky are they? robert: the spirit which expectations change is highly variable. it is a question of when you get people's attention and focused -- and how focused they are in the market. the focus this year became more intense. time is sped up. it can happen within

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now now all this back and forth actually comes on monday robert shiller merc was sentenced to death after his. sentence has been appealed from two thousand and six which sentenced him to fifteen years in prison now he has pleaded guilty in all four counts now back in two thousand and fourteen in the canadian national actually tried to smuggle two hundred twenty two killed allegedly story out smaller two hundred twenty two kilograms of meth outside of the country into australia now of course the canadian government is no way of backing down and it's keeping the position on the case. we believe it is easy mean indeed appropriate and rare to get penalty even. with regard to with me and speak out against it and indeed with regard to others. now is no actually stranger when it comes to drug trafficking back in two thousand and twelve he was sentenced to two years in prison for possession of heroin and cocaine for the purpose of trafficking. now again at that time the b.c. judge the british columbia judge said specifically to show that he is quote he is likely to be living in one of the most sa

. >> so for more i'm pleased to say i'm joined by robert shiller, yale university great to have you on the fed timeline is just one of the market ang zbliets hanging out there, if you will, in addition to the u.s.-china trade tensions and the uncertain uncertainty in that factor markets have been readjusted in their own expectations of what the fed will do this year. do you think the markets have it right? >> i think that the fed has been kind of predictable. and mild ever since janet yellin i don't think that it's -- it's a powerful narrative, but it's not a narrative that would generate a turning point in the market >> what would then is. >> i'm thinking that some narratives that have been live in the recent past might come back, and i'm thinking particularly of the narrative that began in the beginning of 20 2018 january, february, we had a 10% decline correction in the market we had another downturn between september and christmas eve of last year that almost on the s&p 500 it went down from peak to trough 19.8% it almost made this classical so-called definition of a bear market th