one of the world's top bankers, roger altman, thinks so. harvard's niall ferguson isn't so sure. >>> next up, can't we just predict the election results now and be done with it? i'll ask nate silver, "the new york times'" brilliant statistician. >>> also, the crisis you don't know enough about that could have a big impact around the globe. >>> first, here's my take. both conventions are done, and what can we say about the upcoming campaign and election? well, one hearty prediction about elections seems likely to hold this november. the winning party will be the one that is more genuinely optimistic about america, even in the midst of a struggling economy. now it used to be that the democratic party was the glum party. in the 1970s and 1980s, democratic party leaders often criticized the country relentlessly for its behavior at home and abroad, for its inequities and injustices, think of civil rights and vietnam. the democrats' jeane kirkpatric said at the 1984 republican convention, always blame america first. but today, it is the republica

>> yes, i can. >> for more on the european recovery we bring in roger altman, former deputy treasury an and founder of evercorps partners. is it a work in progress, roger? >> is the question is this a recovery? >> pueuropean recovery. >> hi, joe. >> hi. >> i think that this decision by the ecb to enter the secondary market and purchase or potentially purchase weaker sovereign paper could be a big step, and i think it's a good step because if you look back to what the united states did in late 2008 and early 2009, the watch words were big, powerful and fast and i think innovative and i think this relatively innovative step by the ecb in terms of what it's otherwise been doing over the past year or so makes sense, but one of the key questions is conditionality. as i understand it, the ecb will only acquire for example spanish sovereign debt, if spain applies to the rescue fund, the esm for a primary loan, for a direct loan, and accepts the conditionality in terms of internal reforms within spain, fiscal reforms, banking reforms, that would be tied to that direct loan, and watching the d

treasury secretary, roger altman says when the current headwinds abate, it is possible the u.s.rprise us all on the upside for the next few years. is he right, john carney? >> i think altman is probably right. he spent the weekend in jackson hole. remember we had that giant conference we made a big deal out of it on cnbc? altman was there this weekend because his god daughter, richard fisher, the vice president's daughter was getting married on his ranch. >> he was polluted by bulls. >> he had all those guys out there talking to him. i think he had a little bit of informed message. >> mr. altman, i have respect for him, implied it may take four years for headwinds to subside and when they do, things might get better. a little worrisome, four years. >> there are a lot of pluses going on in the economy people aren't really paying attention to. >> there's a new stanford study that finds eating organic foods are on average, mow more nutritious than conventional foods? do you buy organic? does mrs. pisani buy arganic? >> i don't. but i have respect for people to do it. it's more expe

. >> i want to ask, roger altman has a piece in today's ft where he lays out that we could be in forthan expected recovery no matter who gets elected. he says the famine we've seen could be followed by a feast. you could see better than expected housing recovery and that could spur all kind of growth, spur us back against 2.5%. do you agree with that premise? >> i hope he's right about that. i think that premise is partly true. what's happening now are very important corrections are almost completed. the housing market seems to have carved out a bottom. i think that's huge. i think it will support growth rates above trend. if you take trend to be around 2%, 2.5%. are we talking about 3% or 4%? i'm closer to the 3 than -- >> we'll take any of that right now. >> that would be good. to get above trend would be helpful for this economy. >> in terms of the convention, how much is going to be an attack on, for example, ryan and romney relative to a hope-filled convention that we saw four years ago? >> i guess i would split it by around half and half. if it's a lot more attack than hope, i

the moderator will be roger altman. and founder of the chairman of partners. the third panel, entitled harnessing technology, improving k-12 education discusses a paper by robert chatterjee, associate professor, duke university, and ben jones, associate professor, school of management, northwestern university. the moderator will be michael greenstone. i mean, we are deeply honored to conclude our program with remarks by the honorable bonnie duncan, secretary of the u.s. department of education. he will make his remarks and then he will entertain questions from the floor. he gives all of us the opportunity to listen and engage. and adam moody, senior fellow at the brookings institute. let me also thank our enormously talented and hard-working staff, without which nothing that we do at hamilton projects would occur. without them i thank you for being with us and the podium is yours, michael. >> the reason we are here today. history of america has been one of the k-12 system the world. unfortunately, over the last couple of decades, it seems to be true. there is

the moderator will be roger altman, chairman of new visions for public schools and founder and chairman of evercore partners. the third panel entitled "harnessing technology to improve k-12 education" discusses a paper by aaron chatterji. associate professor at duke university. the moderator again will be michael greenstone. finally we are deeply honored to conclude our program with remarks like the honorable arne duncan, secretary of the u.s. department of education. he will make his remarks, and then he will entertain questions from the floor. this is a truly remarkable program that will give all of us the opportunity to listen to and engage with important thought leaders in this absolutely critical area. for development elect rule concept for this area come and then to bring the program together, let me thank three people. michael greenstone, threats of the hamilton project, karen anderson, managing director of the hamilton project, and adam mooney, project and senior fellow brookings institute. let me also thank our enormously talented and hard-working staff, without which nothing t