roger ferguson, trying to weigh in.arning around the growing impact from inflation on the american shopper. >>> russia is launching a new energy war with europe. likely to cut gas flows on the nordstrom pipeline again. this tuesday, july 26, this is worldwide exchange. back, everybody. tuesday morning, get right to it. >>> start the half hour, check on your money. the lw is off 130. massive drag on the markets today. they are down 9%, one of the biggest drops it has seen in 20 years. the fact that the components are only down to 102, it's shocking news that they are about that much. it's a little bit higher. it's closer to $100 a barrel. about 2%, $98.40. natural gas is continuing to rise. it's up 2%. they are increasing demand. energy, not for gas tomorrow could be another tough day for germany and europe. wednesday, gas is going to slow down gas flows. this is through the pipeline we have been talking so much about. maintenance from the turbine that we were talking about last week, the german government is disputing.

economic and market experts to help break down the action, including mark zmandy, ken rogoff, roger ferguson and pat grady. time for today's market dashboard, though, which is where we start mike, what are you watching in the wake of the jobs report? >> just what you say about the possible five-day win streak which also shows a little bit of a different character of the market if you look at the five-day, look here, you've had a morning dip or overnight dip so weakness early and then a rally to finish relatively strong every single day this week it also by the way goes back to last friday. so it tells me if nothing else that big investors came into the quarter somewhat lightly invested, somewhat defensively positioned after a very bad six-month stretch for the markets and needed to add exposure if the market wasn't going to buckle along the way. that's encouraging suggestion of a firmer tone and the market character is changing look at the year-to-date chart we still have plenty to prove. this is about the eighth rally that you can sort of identify on the way down we're still very close to t

joining us now roger ferguson. roger, great to have you back. >> thanks.e to be here. >> you're expecting 75 why 75 and not 100 as some other fed officials have said? >> i'm expecting 75 for a couple of reasons one is there are some mixed signals about the economy. some are more qualitative, some quantitative the recent report for consumers suggested that maybe inflation expectations are coming down just a little bit. finally, while there have been some voices that we've heard suggesting 100 basis points, i've also heard a number of voices, including president bostic from atlanta, mentioning 75 and his argumentation about not reeling the market is more likely the consensus point of view while it's a close call and there will be discussion of 100 basis points, i think 75 is the more likely outcome. >> what's your take on treasury yields and where they stand right now, roger it's been a roller coaster ride. we certainly had a lot of volatility when it comes to u.s. treasuries specifically. the 10-year yield is at 2.77%. if borrowing costs come down, the fed

is on the cusp of a recession. >>> joining us now, a cnb contributor, roger ferguson. said time dilation -- everything is faster so last week we quickly got to 1% being a given, and in the blink of an eye on friday, i'm not sure what happened, but even after the ppi and cpi were both hot, we immediately saw something dropped and it got down to a much lower probability of 1%. what do you think caused that to indicate the fed didn't need to be quite as quick. what was it about friday that did that in retail sales >> well, i think a couple of things first, good morning. i think on retail sales, they were a little higher than expected perhaps the core number was certainly lower, and so we'll want to take a close look and say inflation's starting to have an impact on consumers. you've heard from the bankers it's not yet dramatic. i think we've heard from a couple of policy makers, rafael bostick in particular during the course of the week had two different conversations, one in which he said everything is on the table. and friday he came back and said we don't want to upset

number good jobs number very interesting sort of dynamic in the economy right now we talked to roger ferguson. we will talk to him again in a moment we talked about going back to the '70s and the fed tried to manage inflation amid the recessions that occurred in the '70s raise rates and rise of unemployment they stop raising rates. inflation wasn't cured it would come back quickly >> right. >> jay powell and the current fed studied all of that closely. arthur burns and the policy mistakes they don't want to do it again. >> you think the answer is you keep going >> i think when we talk to roger ferguson and i took that number on friday as a positive. it gives the fed more breathing room to do what it needs to do when it was all said and done, dow closed down and s&p closed down it sold off sharply. nasdaq closed higher you were doing your thing last week markets were trying to find a bottom without the vix getting near 30. cramer and we keep pointing out how many stocks hit -- death of 1,000 cuts -- down 50% do you not get a vix at 40 can you make a bottom without that capitulation because it

. >> coming up, roger ferguson on what investors want to see in today's minutes.opardy!," don't you? oh, you have a life, i forgot. as we head to break, here's a look aths&t e p. hey businesses! you all deserve something epic! so we're giving every business, our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers our best deals on every iphone. ♪ ♪ welcome back to "squawk box" in times square checking the futures, now they're in the positive, in the green. look at our set. shouldn't we have this --? >> -- every day. >> there's an edible arrangement. >> amazing. >> melissa lecome comes in here 3:30, 4:00, 5:00, whatever, and yesterday i mentioned, management will probably be sending an edible arrangement. >> here it is. an edible arrangement. >> it brightens

joining us, roger ferguson, former ceo and former vice chair of the federal reserve and cnbc contributorat we're going to see >> i join the market consensus i expect 75 basis points that was some good news that came in a little while ago on inflation expectations and a conversation that took place publicly between one of the governors and raphael bostic where bostic rlaid it out clev cleverly >> we're going to get comments about all this on wednesday. which will set the market directionally one way or the other. what is your sincense of what cs after this >> a couple things first we have to see if there's any dissent. so i think that's the first question when we'll see tight consensus around this or a few outliers that may be the precursor to something new. secondly, i think the story is, i think chairman powell's going to be a little careful about putting too many numbers out there as that has proven in the past to not be very accurate they do not want to signal at this stage that they think the job is done, because think know it's not so i think think want to keep expectation in the ma

. >>> for more on the fed decision, let's bring in roger ferguson who is a distinguished fellow at the council on foreign relations. he is the former ceo of tiaa and a cnbc contributor. roger, you not only follow this for a living, you used to do this for a living. sitting in the fed making these decisions. what did you think about their tone yesterday? was there a reason for the market to take off the way it did? >> i wouldn't go with a much more dovish fed. let's start with what did happen. they did come in with 75 basis points as expected. there was no defense, which i think is important, because it does indicate that there wasn't 18 1% that people were worried about. but i think that what happened in the press briefing was the statement from chair powell suggested that 75 might be appropriate, and i think that sounded to people as though 50 may be more likely than 75. to be fair, i think they missed the bigger picture, which is a strong statement around a 2% inflation target needing to see convincing evidence, and my previous statement reiterated that the path towards a soft landin