friday that the fed is reading the signals as a pivot that sparked a rally on friday joining us is roger ferguson and adviser for tiaa and cnbc contributor roger, let's talk this through it was off to the races on friday that the fed pivot is coming come december what do you think? is that the right take what is the fed actually considering? >> i think what the fed is actually considering is 75 basis points the next meeting. pretty much baked in the market understands that. 50 in the last meeting of the year and continuing one or two more increases in the first part of next year. the market was wrong to get off to the races as you say because i think once the fed is done with hiking, it will stay there for a very long time until inflation is conquered the market is misreading the fed intentions even if the fed does, you know, slow down in terms of pace at which it is raising rates. >> if they stop, they will look around for a while and say what's up? have we defeated inflation before you can sniff the idea of a rate cut >> i think that's right. i think chair powell has said that i think the marke

we will have former chairman roger ferguson joining us next. >>> and a look at the pre-market winners and losers in the s&p 500. you are watching "squawk box" here on cnbc the pursuit is on. the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. with deep expertise to outthink across multiple asset classes, actively managing investments in the world's public and private markets. outscale, with the resources to serve 1,500 clients in 52 countries. and outlast, with long-term conviction that looks beyond today's volatility. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. the investment management business of prudential. to adapt in a fast changing world, you could hire a professional pit crew. go, go, go. sorry. nope. okay. fresh donuts - hot coffee! they deliver real time data and business forecasts when you need it. i think it was fine how it was. (air tool sound) to help you stay ahead of the curve... or you could use workday. the finance, hr and planning system that helps cfos make better decisions faster. on the other hand, we had a great fourth quarter. for a accelerate your decision-making world. wo

echoing what new york fed president john williams is saying and earlier today we had fed official roger ferguson, this is a quote. i think what's going on in the markets they're building up some expectation of some sort of pivot which i think is premature. t premature to think we're on a road to a pause or pivot what's setting up this expectation that might happen? >> i think one of the things that set it up is the bank of england seemingly pivoted. i listened to a podcast steph was on just recently, and she made a very good point one of the mandates of the bank oa mane federal reserve. of course they pay attention to it, and if things fall apart here it would probably cause them to pause. but things aren't falling apart in that they're falling apart properly that's what caused the bank of england to step in they still have to focus on inflation. the implications of if they pivoted, if they got dovish right now with inflation at 8.3%, we're in trouble because that really is still public enemy number one so if they pivot it really just over time inflates things even further and we end up in a rec

joining us to talk about it and much more is roger ferguson.il the two organizations have a survey that's out this morning it shows that ceo confidence fell deeper into negative territory heading into the fourth quarter it's actually down for the sixth straight quarter nearly all the ceos say they're preparing for a recession in the united states and in europe. but despite lower growth expectations, they say wage pressures persist and hiring plans remain robust. so, roger, let's break this down they're pessimistic about where we're headed for the economy, but they're saying they're keeping their hiring plans in place. the fed hears that and thinks what >> i think the fed hears that and thinks two things, one is, to some degree, the message that everyone is delivering is being delivered by ceo, that pain is likely on the horizon. but this data confirms what they're seeing in the most labor market statistics which is labor market is still tight. and i think what the fed has said overall, inflation pressures have not really abated very much. that'

aways from the september jobs report and what it will mean for the fed former fed vice chair roger fergusonss our w with paul tur dojones. that's coming up in the 8:00 hour a reminder you can watch you go anytime on the cnbc app welcome to ameriprise. i'm sam morrison, my brother max recommended you. so my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors the garcia's, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized. hey john reese, jr. how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. ♪ ♪ connecting to opportunity is just part of the hustle. ♪ ♪ opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. ♪ ♪ it's raising capital that helps companies change the world. it's making complicated financial concepts seem simple. opportunity is making the dream of home ownership a reality... ♪ ♪ ...writing new rules an

its two-day meeting tomorrow and is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points let's bring in roger fergusonrmer vice chair of the federal reserve and the ceo of tiaa roger, it is not 75 basis points that the market is waiting to hear, but what comes next? the broad expectation that after this 75 point rate hike they will slow things down. what is most likely? >> first, i think you are right to say that it is what comes next is the issue. unfortunately, we will not get clarity this week as to what they are planning because of the data that comes in i think the odds of slight step down to 50 are slightly greater than the odds of holding 75 one more time. the other big question, becky, is not what comes next in terms of december, but how high do they ultimately go and high long do they stay there there are a number of questions that have to be answered the next couple meetings >> part of the reason the market has done so well this month and in the last week has been this idea that the fed was going to slow down. that is there largely because of the article that nick wrote from "the wall street

we had somebody on yesterday that says it does matter roger ferguson talking about zero is different from minus 1 that is a more serious recession. zero would be maybe getting off cheap. >> steve, does this mean the gdp number this week is something we should blow past and not pay attention to because it is not the story of what is happening on the ground right now? >> i think the third quarter is in the bag we want to pay attention because i want to see how we get to the number of 2.4 which is forecast. right now, the going ahead and outlook is for growth to have and get to zero. i would not be a buyer of the idea that we're off to the races again and we put that weak first half behind us. >> steve liesman rapid update we'll see. we will see what the fed does. i appreciate it. >>> coming up when we return, we take you live to the controversial investment conference in riyadh dubbed davos in the desert. >>> check out shares of ubs. 24% decline in the third quarter as corporate deal making slowed and clients pulled back on net income of $1.7 billion investment banking revenue down 17%