we will speak to former vice fed chair roger ferguson as we head to break, here say lis a look at the00 winners and losers a car is a car... is a spa. an office. hi! hello! a cinema. so automated. yes, the definition of a car changes... but one thing stays the same. it's a mercedes-benz. encore energy, america's clean energy company, now in production in south texas. energizing america with reliable and affordable uranium for nuclear energy fuel from our environmentally friendly extraction process. encore energy. (vo) what does it mean to be rich? maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. and also send them away. rich is living life your way. and having someone who can help you get there. the key to being rich is knowing what counts. >>> stock markets hitting all-time highs despite more doubt about when the fed will cut rates. senior economics reporter steve liesman joins us now with the roller coaster of the markets. hey, steve >> reporter: good morning, joe we marked a milestone yesterday w

jay powell dashed the hopes in the market for when rates could or should fall let's bring from roger ferguson, former vice chairman of the federal reserve and cnbc contributor. roger, good morning. >> good morning. >> andrew properly gave you credit for believing the market was getting overly aggressive thinking march is the time for the initial rate cut what do you take away from powell's comments and how he characterized the position of the board and the threshold for them to begin easing >> three things i took away. first, on the threshold question it seems it is just a matter of time i listened to what he talked about is the six-month number is good on inflation, but the 12-month number is worrisome the passage of time without things getting worse is part of the story. the second thing i took away that most people didn't observe was he introduced a new kind of risk here. the risk of no landing i.e., the risk of the no move by the economy. that is not the likely outcome that was interesting for those who follow this closely, at least for me the third thing is the general expectation that t

joining us is roger ferguson. chairman of the business council and former fed vice chair. roger, these results are interesting. i think the reading was just above 53. the key here is it is the first time since the first quarter of 2022 that the reading is above 50. above 50 indicates there are more positive responses than negative responses. what are ceos finally starting to feel? >> i think they are starting to feel a couple of things. one is the momentum in the economy born out by the macro statistics. secondly, i would say the issues with the supply chain wicontinu to improve. the third is the destocking. a lot of companies built up a hughes huge amount of inventory. i think ceos are feeling more confident they will sell goods and services. >> you don't feel it is an overwhelming vote of confidence? >> it is not overwhelming. anything above 50 is meant to be positive. this was 53. to get context, the high when things were really rocking and rolling was 82. they moved from negative to slightly positive. the other point i would make is there is still some discussion aroun

less likely, but not impossible. >> roger ferguson, thanks. we'll see you soon, i have a feeling.ke care. >> when we come back, delta airlines handing out $1.4 billion in profit sharing checks to its employees. the ceo ed bastian will join us with more on that. and an update on travel demand. and check out lyft shares this morning, the ride sharing company reported better than expected reports in guidance. you see that huge jump there in the stock when it was up by more than 60% for a brief moment. that was because of a typo. we'll talk more about that too. stock still, tug uhoh,p this morning. the ceo david risher will join us at 7:40 a.m. eastern time. "squawk box" will be right back. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. to build the electric vehicle of the future, you need partners. mining partners. technology partners. education. supply chain. energy. w

economic weakening as roger ferguson told us this morning to get the last bits of inflation out. >> thestricted territory longer and that by definition increases the risk of recession. so yes, my assessment is the risk of recession has gone up moderately. >> reporter: markets reacted to yesterday's report betting on later and fewer cuts. the year end fund rate rose 30 basis points. the market looking for 100 basis points cut this is year not the 175 it did a month ago. that's three cuts now have been baked out. for now the inflation report introduces risk to the coveted soft landing scenario that's not the base case of economists but you can only encounter it with better inflation desiata. >>> good news is it doesn't contemplate a rate hike if inflation picks up. seems like they're keen on staying pat. >> i'm going to double check you on that, you are correct. no bid at the moment in all of the contracts for rate hikes. i do see the lowest thing i have is only the 9% chance of a rate cut in march. that obviously is way down. 40% in may. and it looks like june is it. but one more bad inf

joining us now with his insights roger ferguson. former fed vice chairman and a cnbc contributor. t, i didn't hear anything that greatly surprised or shocked me, but we've seen treasury yields moving higher this morning on the idea the fed will not cut rates in march? i don't think that comes as surprise to you, but why do you think the markets need to hear this again and again? >> look, i think the markets have built in a certain kind of expectation. making bets on the march cut. it's hard for people to recognize and unwind those bets. in part hard for people more psychological than economically in the market. i think the repetition gets through one person the next and the next margaret participant. i think that's what's happening. nothing surprising there. just individville participants up saying i guess they are serious here. >> and steve liesman made the point, the fed's own fault. a communication problem. clear if you're living. he said, yes, but the dot plots fete dod plots anticipating six cuts. why does the fed continue to put out the dot plots if it just creates confusion

roger ferguson. ferguson has said they go up? >> he's been pretty hawkish.cally that they'll go up, but he certainly was resistant to the notion that the work had been totally done by the fed. you think it's -- i would stay it's a non-zero chance. >> i would say it's less than 10%, but probably greater than zero. >> as strong as these -- those gdp numbers -- and i don't know, is it inventory, is it stimulus. but the gdp numbers, we would kill for 3%. we got a 4% print. when we're supposed to be now in the long-awaited recession, caused by the inverted yield curve, which did not happen. so, do you think -- how many rate cuts? what do you think? how many this year? how many do you think we get this year? do we get any? >> a fool's errand. >> i think we get some, far fewer than six. >> inflation needs to definitely come down and wage gains are still so strong. >> when you look at boeing, machinists are looking for, they're expecting 40% wages, that's what they're seeking, too. 3 to 4% increases over the next three to four years. but we want to get to our first