have experienced housing booms and busts and financial crises of the latest work i'm aware of by ken rogoff with a large collection of experiences across the world of overlong period of time found the average country has taken six to eight years to get back to the pre-crisis level of output per person. the u.s. is now back to the pre-crisis level of output per person. doesn't seem like much of an accomplishment in an economy that is accustomed to growing and should he growing so the costs are very high. >> what was your reaction when congress failed to return an agreement to extend emergency long-term unemployment benefits? >> as you know cbo does not make policy recommendations and that's very important because policy choices depend not just on the analysis of the consequences at the different courses of action but also how one ways those consequences and what value one applies. there's nothing special about our values. it's up to our elected leaders to make those policy judgments. our job is to help congress understand the consequences of alternative courses of actions. we have said a num

richard quest, host of "quest news business" and ken rogoff is with us, a friend of the show. guys' russia's stock market took a big hit and so did its currency. a tough start for the ruble. richard, basically the obama betting booten got a taftaste o what's to come. maybe the market will do what -- >> i don't think the market as such. i think the external pressure will give pause for thought, but here's the point. the president -- president putin knew exactly what he was doing, and he knew exactly what the reaction would be. the best form of pressure will come, yes, with the market. yes, with threats to the russian economy, but when russian olegogues, when they say you're causing us trouble and we're now worried. >> incredible. people saying when the stock market got hit in russia, how could putin keep going forward when he's hurting, maybe himself. >> especially -- >> he's worth less today, i would bet than he was last week. ken, let me ask you this. so american investors don't seem to be concerned about russia. american investors don't seem to be worried about slow jobs gro

you know, the people who supported austerity policies, they supported them before the reinhardt and rogoff paper and still support them after that paper has been debunked. you might ask them what their opinions on that is but, you know, i think it's really a telltale sign of more political than technical reasons. >> yeah. so, let me just ask, are we going to turn on cnbc at some point and you're growing to be talking on cnbc or are you going to write some academic books or can i be in airport bookstore or see some paper back about you and your money and low and behold, there you are, thomas? what are you going to do? seems to me you have some real probability possibilities. >> what i'm going to try to do is continue to do honest research that addresses -- >> even if michael were not here you would do that? [laughter] >> i mean, certainly, i mean that's point to do honest research that touches on the central public policy issues of our time. that is why i became an economist. i thought we could do a lot better. you know, it is kind of an interesting thing too because the slogan coming out.

in this essay earned an and co-authors point out errors that reinhart and rogoff widely cited economic study, thereby undermining the intellectual foundation for austerity program to slash budget and social standing around the world. so we look forward hearing from thomas on this. and, finally, we are very pleased, on the extreme left of the stage, not on the political spectrum is stephanie herring, stephanie is weather and climate extreme project lead at the national oceanic and atmospheric administration, or noaa. she published a groundbreaking report that sought to explain the connection between human caused climate change and extreme weather events like hurricane sandy. we are very pleased to have you join us. site think we're going to start with erica. i have a set of questions, and i think you all have had a chance to look at these questions. i don't think there are any curveballs or knuckleballs in these questions. so let me start with the first one, erica. your research with maria show that nonviolence resistance has been more than twice as effective as violent resistance in ov

whole careers were i was talking to ken rogoff in 2008 and he said, whole careers have been built on the great moderation. the idea of the great moderation was this regulation had -- regulars had gotten so good and so far far other jobs will never would have another financial crisis began, that it just wasn't possible to have any the culture like the united states or the eu to have a financial crisis the way we did in 1930. you really saw this reflected in a whole lot of things. bankers, for example, you would talk to them about debt and mortgage bonds and so forth and they would say things like yes but for this to be a problem to date a sustained nationwide decline in house prices and we've not had one of those since the great depression. with the implication that, of course, since the great the great depression was impossible, i tend to think of the financial crisis mostly, not entirely but mostly as a sort of everyone getting the same that signal from the market. the central banker saw what they were doing and the other regulators of the financial system were easing things off in

one problem with reinhardt rogoff paper it is not really about causal relations. it is about correlations and there are two aspectings of causality that i would like you to consider and discuss. one is temporal. what happens after what? i mean, debt and growth. the other one is about conceptual problem between debt and deficit that, it really is theoretically deficit should be more the flow aspect and not so much the stock aspect of debt which is important. so in a way it is like barking up the wrong tree. so those are my questions. >> thomas, go ahead. i think it is all you. >> so i encouraging people to be more humble like dentists takes time. it is difficult, to incorporate like i mentioned before, incorporating replication. promoting the kind of critical spirit that animates science, these things are tough but, it is hard to say. how to promote honest research. it is, that's a tough question. more critical mind. more graduate students doing replication in their econometrics courses. another thing is critical popular engagement. when i look at history of though

whole careers, i was talking to ken rogoff in 2008, and he said, yeah, whole careers have been built on the great moderation. i don't know what happened to those people. >> what was the great moderation? >> the idea was that regulators had gotten so good and so smart at their jobs that we were never going to have another financial crisis again, that it just wasn't possible to have in a big country like the united states or the e.u. to have a financial crisis the way we did in 1930. and you really saw this reflected in a whole lot of things. bankers, for example, you would talk to them about debt and mortgage bonds and so forth, and they would say things like, yes, but more this to be a -- for this to be a problem, you would need a sustained nationwide decline in house prices, and we've not had one of those since the great depression. with the implication that, of course, since the great depression was impossible, i tend to think of the financial crisis mostly -- not entirely, but mostly as a story of everyone getting the same bad signal from the market. the central bankers saw what t

. >>> ahead, kenneth rogoff joins us live to talk about the fed meeting and janet yellen's first news the author of the highly anticipated book about apple "after steve jobs" join us live here at post nine for a first on cnbc interview. "squawk on the street" will be right back. (announcer) scottrade knows our clients trade and invest their own way. with scottrade's smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading. their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in real-time. plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. because they know i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) ranked highest in investor satisfaction with self-directed services by j.d. power and associates. you'd do that for me? really? yeah, i'd like that. who are you talking to? uh, it's jake from state farm. sounds like a really good deal. jake from state farm at three in the morning. who is this? it's jake from state farm. what are you wearing, jake from state farm? [ jake ] uh... khakis. she sounds hideous. well she's a gu

experience had that were onses housing and the financial system. , like carmen reinhart, kevin rogoff and vincent reinhart found that recoveries from those events are very prolonged relative to the post war u.s. experience. in retrospect, we put too much just the postwar experience, but we understood sort of interpretive event. but we put too much weight on a rapid monetary policy response and fiscal policy response. we thought that would be enough notut the economy fairly -- a v-shaped recovery, really, but a quick u-shaped recovery to bring the economy back more strongly than it has. the past several years, we have marked down our projections for economic growth. is stillthat there considerable slack left in the economy, considerable slack left in the labor market. watchingeen carefully the structural factors that have example,e economy, for labor force participation is down considerably over the past several years. and a big chunk of that, we think, is due to the demographic changes, particularly the aging of the population and moving of baby boomers into retirement. but also, a si

i was talking to ken rogoff who said poll careers have been built on the great moderation. >> what wasthe great moderation? >> the idea the great moderation was regulators had gotten so smart and good at their jobs that we would never have another financial crisis again. it just wasn't possible to have been a big country like the united states or the e.u. to absorb a financial crisis the way they did in 1930 and you really sell this reflected in a lot of things. the bankers for example we would talk to them about mortgage bonds and they would say things like yes but for this to be a problem you need a sustained nationwide decline in house prices and we have not had one of those since the great depression. with the implication that of course since the great depression wasn't possible. i tend to think of the financial crisis mostly as a story of everyone getting the same bad signal from the market. the central bankers thought what they were doing in the regulators of the financial system were easing things up in various ways and what they saw was nothing happened and in fact the economy