ron brownstein.s so much. >>> it's one of the smallest states in country with the white population at nearly 94%. new hampshire is the one place jon huntsman is campaigning. cnn is there with him when we come back. people really love snapshot from progressive, but don't just listen to me. listen to these happy progressive customers. i plugged in snapshot, and 30 days later, i was saving big on car insurance. i was worried it would be hard to install. but it's really easy. the better i drive, the more i save. i wish our company had something this cool. yeah. you're not... filming this, are you? aw! camera shy. snapshot from progressive. plug into the savings you deserve with snapshot from progressive. fortunately... there's senokot-s® tablets. senokot-s®. for occasional constipation associated with certain medications. now you can save big on senokot-s® tablets! go to senokot-s.com. >>> all right. each week we're checking in with other members of the best political team on television to see what's on

bill and 2012 with moody's analytics chief economist mark zandi and veteran political journalist ron brownstein of the "national journal" and peter baker of the "new york times." i'm candy crowley, and this is "state of the union." >>> herman cain and michele bachmann were on this show the day after the iowa straw poll in august. she won, he was fifth but unbowed. >> this campaign has encouraged and our momentum continues to grow. >> in an august quinnipiac poll, bachmann ranked third among republicans with 12%. cain just 5%. now in a cbs news poll of republican primary voters, she sits between ron paul and rick santorum with 4%. he's tied for first with mitt romney. herman cain is big league now soaking up the limelight on "the view" and the "tonight show" promoting his book "this is herman cain." still many the topsy-turvy universe of 2012 politics, getting to the top and staying there are wholly different things. with me now, republican presidential contender herman cain. >> thank you, candy. >> thanks for finding time for us between "the view" and the "tonight show." appreciate it. couple o

george will, cokie roberts, austan goolsbee and ron brownstein. so, you just heard what herman cain said, george, is he going to stay there? can he keep up this momentum? >> not if the future is like the past. the general conception is, in iowa, you have to do intricate organizing county by county. maybe you don't anymore. my feeling is, iowa caucuses are light years from now. overnight is a long time and a week is forever in american politics. no one has voted. iowans aren't paying attention yet. >> herman cain is this week, two weeks not romney. we had an entire season of not romneys. whether it was rick perry or herman cain or donald trump or chris christie, this is this week's, until the republicans either decide that somebody really is the not romney or romney is going to be the nominee, we'll keep having people pop up. >> the des moines register is very consistent in what we saw in the four other polls that came out. there's a half of the party that doesn't identify with the tea party, they are steadily consolidating around romney. >> and th

let's talk about this with our senior political analyst ron brownstein of the national journal.for coming in. before i get to the did you hear john huntsman call mitt romney a well lubricated weather vane? >> yes. i did. i think that's a line he's clearly been thinking about for quite some time. and obviously in new hampshire romney is the person he's got to beat or at least come in a very close second to. so i think we're going to hear more of those attacks. >> i guess that is the flip-flopper. >> welcome a well lubricated weather vein. >> that's a bumper sticker. >> this is the case if romney is the nominee, you'll seat arguments made against him reappearing in democratic ads next fall. >> rick perry has a lot of issues out. there is a lot of trouble in this racement he has to do a lot better in the debates. now he's suggesting at least according to the communications director, he may skip some of the debates. >> and that puzzles me, actually. the way he introduced himself to republican voters is by doing poorly in debates. if you withdraw from them, that's essentially saying

ron brownstein is senior political analyst for cnn. ron, good to have you with us.now you've been looking at all the fine print, in every single poll out there, the recent cnn polls in early states, and have an inside track on tea party support. so you say the race has become two races on parallel tracks. what do you mean? >> i can take your "blazing saddle" reference and raise you back to "dr. strangelove." you have to go back to 1964 to see a race as volatile as this. six candidates have led in the polls. one of the reasons why the race is so volatile is because it is clearly evolving along two separate tracks. in your cnn polling, about half of the party identifies as supporters of the tea party. the other half of the republican electorate say they're either neutral or opposed to the tea parties. and these two groups are moving in very different ways. the non-tea party side of the party, they are moving pretty steadily toward mitt romney. he was at 16 or 18% with them in your polling in august and early september, up to 24% in late september. 35% now. meanwhile,

ron brownstein is senior political analyst for cnn. ron, good to have you with us.n looking at all the fine print, in every single poll out there, the recent cnn polls in early states, and have an inside track on tea party support. so you say the race has become two races on parallel tracks. what do you mean? >> i can take your "blazing saddle" reference and raise you back to "dr. strangelove." you have to go back to 1964 to see a race as volatile as this. six candidates have led in the polls. one of the reasons why the race is so volatile is because it is clearly evolving along two separate tracks. in your cnn polling, about half of the party identifies as supporters of the tea party. the other half of the republican electorate say they're either neutral or opposed to the tea parties. and these two groups are moving in very different ways. the non-tea party side of the party, they are moving pretty steadily toward mitt romney. he was at 16 or 18% with them in your polling in august and early september, up to 24% in late september. 35% now. meanwhile, on the other s

i want to walk over there to reinforce the point that ron brownstein just made. this is the first election for republicans that we've seen since the election of the tea party. many evangelical voters can be tea party voters but among evangelicals. herman cain has the lead and romney holding his own. if you're rick perry, that's a warning sign to you. but ron's point was among those who do not consider themselves born again christians, that's his advantage in that state. i just want to bring up south carolina to reinforce the point. among born again christians, herman cain. the surprising leader and, again, for rick perry, that's a bad number. those who are not consider themselves born again christians. look at that. mitt romney leads. you have, some of it is a religious divide within the party and some is a class divide within the party, but at the moment, at the moment, mary, let me go to you. if you're looking at a primary race, why can't romney go up. what does he need to do or can he do anything? does he have to hope three or four people from his right stay i

ron brownstein was on our program last night, pollster at the national journal, saying that among the half of the party that did not identify with the tea party, mitt romney has a very clear lead. but on the tea party side of things, he has not gotten traction, 10 to 18% of that group all the way through. he hasn't been building. it's herman cain who is the front-runner. and not significantly so but is the front-runner among the tea party people who define themselves as tea party. do you think at some point you've got to come behind one person? >> well, i think that could happen. we've been polling our members for several months now and what we have found is that every couple of weeks, the leadership changes. it started off the newt gingrich was ahead. then newt -- then mitt romney pulled ahead and then when herman cain had the good south carolina debate, he pulled ahead. and then michele bachmann did really well in the new hampshire debate. she pulled ahead. then perry got in the race. he pulled ahead. and then cain had the straw poll victory in florida. and now he's ahead. so i thin

ron brownstein was on our program last night, pollster at the national journal, saying that among the half of the party that did not identify with the tea party, mitt romney has a very clear lead. but on the tea party side of things, he has not gotten traction, 10 to 18% of that group all the way through. he hasn't been building. it's herman cain who is the front-runner. and not significantly so but is the front-runner among the tea party people who define themselves as tea party. do you think at some point you've got to come behind one person? >> well, i think that could happen. we've been polling our members for several months now and what we have found is that every couple of weeks, the leadership changes. it started off the newt gingrich was ahead. then newt -- then mitt romney pulled ahead and then when herman cain had the good south carolina debate, he pulled ahead. and then michele bachmann did really well in the new hampshire debate. she pulled ahead. then perry got in the race. he pulled ahead. and then cain had the straw poll victory in florida. and now he's ahead. so i thin

joining us, ron brownstein and, ron, you call this the flat tax 2.0. we've been here before.ons you site, to deal with the political problems the flat tax ran into the first time debated in the republican primary, which was 1996 under publisher steve forbes. forbes' campaign was launched by the flat tax, almost as quickly sunk by the flat tax when his opponent, bob dole and lamar alexander and pat buchanan all raised serious concerns about it. he was unable to sell it even with the republican primary. witness you got past the initial concept, very popular, into the details. in particular, christine, even republican voters did not like eliminating deductions you cited when forbes prosed to do so in 1996. >> you even dug up the 1996 polling which shows how republicans felt about it. i want to ge through that. back then 60% of republicans opposed eliminating the deduction for home mortgages. >> right. >> 66% opposed limited tax deductions for charitable contributions. 55% opposed limiting deductions for state and local taxes. perry is trying to avoid forbes' pes fall, back from

joining me, political analyst ron brownstein brings ut that poll this morning.you found. 40% of people said encouraged them to pay off debt. it's justified. will it last? >> this feels like something lasting. first of all, christine, a series of polls we do with allstate that looks how americans are navigating the changing economy. what you see in this poll, the reason i think it is a lasting change, people are talking about both altering personal behavior and making public policy analogies to that. on the one hand you see a clear preference in this poll, paying down debt. a strong sense accumulating too much debt at the family level and national level is a critical part of the downturn and a conviction that really to get our economy back on stable ground. both families and the federal government has to reduce the red ink. there are many economists who worry if we are simultaneously paying down debt, both the family and national level, where does the purchasing power come to drive the economy? right now i think there is an almost like the great depression, chang

let's bring in cnn's senior political analyst ron brownstein. good morning.e a crazy night. >> or good night. weren't of those. not sure. >> i was trying to count up how many debates we had so far and how many debates to go. there are actually 12 more debates to go. >> absolutely. you know, and the debates are dominating the race, and i think we're really seeing in this election the continuation of a trend that's been going on the last few cycles that amounts to nothing less than a transformation of the way people run for president. wlp i started covering presidential politics in the 1980s people talked about the year before the first votes in iowa and new hampshire as the invisible primary. the idea, candidates go burrow into those states out of the public eye meeting with people in their homes or coffee shop. now we're evolving into something very difcall it the national audition. everybody is watching the same big events and debates, and these are driving the national numbers, which are in turn affecting the numbers in iowa and new hampshire. the race is n