ron brownstein writes for "the atlantic" and "national journal," specializing in the demographics of the nation's politics. and khalid baydoun is an associate professor of law at barry university in orlando. he studies the history and intersection of race, religion and national security. thank you all for joining us. ron brownstein, overall, what san mating this discussion we are -- what is animating this discussion we are seeing now. >> we're already having a really volatile debate on american identity even before paris and two things on nat. first, economic strain. in 15 years the median income is low than in 2000, a period of stagnation is almost unprecedented in american history. second, weçó are living through the most profound demographic change in the 20th century. a majority of our public school systems is nonwhite. white christians now for the first time are less than half the total of american population. so even in the early stages of the presidential campaign all of these issues come together to raise a series of concerns about whether americans and particularly blue coll

. >> cnn senior political analyst ron brownstein is joining us now.t the first time and think that was cheesy. if you take a second, there is strategy here. >> yeah, well, i'll tell you if you poll the republican coyote room and looking for adjectives for ted cruz cuddly probably wouldn't come up in the top five. ted cruz had a fascinating week, you know, he and marco rubio have collided at high speed over the issue of immigration and have done a lot of damage to each other, i think, and potentially to the party in the general election as well. ted cruz has seized on an issue that has been surprisingly under the radar in the early months which was marco rubio's support of gang of 8 immigration rebill in 2014 that included a pathway to citizenship for 11 million undocumented immigrants, which was ultimately killed when the house republicans would not take it up. the problem cruz faced he supported an amendment, as you know, during the process which would have provided legal status but not citizenship for the 11 million undocumented immigrants. he said

(ron brownstein/national review) "the more significant confrontation you could see is between ted cruz and marco rubio over the substance of ted cruz national security and foreign policy positions." national security is one of the topics moderator wolf preparing. a topic that's taken on new significance since the last republican debates, with isis- related attacks in california and paris, and trump's idea to temporarily ban muslims from entering the u-s. meanwhile, other candidates are hoping the debate will give them a boost and keep them in the race until the iowa caucuses. (mike shields/congressional leadership fund)"i think they're going to continue to execute their game plans as they've been doing, it's going to look like some of the other debates, i think you're going to see that volatility more around february first." stephanie: terrorism is now the number one issue for iowa terrorism is now the number one issue for iowa republicans in this campaign. according to the latest quinnipiac poll, 30 percent of likely caucus-goers say it's the most important issue to them. that's even

reporter maeve reston and senior political analyst and editorial director for the national journal, ron brownstein. what was your takeaway? >> it was a terrific debate. i've been covering presidential debates for a long time. it was crisp, informative and teased out subtle differences. the cruz/rubio showdown was center stage. trump was more measured than presidential i've seen him. it was t

ron brownstein, you're reaction to this? >> well, not the first time that we've seen kind of the formal structure of the campaign at odds without side advisors in a campaign, which seems to be the situation here. look, i would say ben carson is in a position where he is probably already had his biggest impact on the race. he continues to raise money in large amounts, which is unusual for a candidate slipping in the polls but i think he had his moment where voters were looking at him in the fall and did not kind of stand up to that scrutiny in terms of appearing ready for the big job in the big chair and i think his impact at this point is going to be sec d secondary and this is confirmation of that. >> carson's campaign released a statement saying it is necessary to invigorate my campaign but i want to read between the lines here because it seems like just before christmas, he -- carson said to bob costa he was looking at a shakeup and back peddled and said no, no, no my team is spectacular. awkward on the carson campaign wi

let's bring in our senior political analyst ron brownstein, editorial director at the national journal. good morning to you, ron. >> good morning. >> how serious do you believe trump is about this? and does he believe that he could win? >> well, i think donald trump's belief about what he can do is pretty boundless. maybe he does think he can win. it's very difficult. even ross perot who won 19% of the popular vote in 1992 did not win a single state. that's the challenge in a third party bid. donald trump has an identifiable constituency. he could probably jen route a significant share of the popular vote, particularly among blue collar whites. accumulating that to a point where you can actually win states and compete in the electoral college is something else. you have the challenge to finish second to republicans and democrats this threat will be out there for fight a while. like a lure on a line, he puts it out, pulls it back. i think that pattern will go on for fight a while into 2016. >> ben carson, what has he earned from this implied threat of going third party? i'm sure anyone

(ron brownstein/national review) "the more significant confrontation you could see is between ted cruz and marco rubio over the substance of ted cruz national security and foreign policy positions." national security is one of the topics moderator wolf blitzer says he's preparing. topic that's taken on new significance e since the last republican debateses th isis-related attacks in californini and paris, and trump's idea to temporarily ban muslims from meanwhile, other candidates are hoping the debate boost and keep them in the race until the iowa caucuses. (mike shields/congression i think they're going to continue to execute their game plans as they've been doing, it's going to look like some of the other debates, i think you're going to see that volatility more around february first." in las vegas, i'm dianne gallagher reporting. jenna: r feet got a big early christmas present. a group from the 3rd district department of corrections in sioux city have been buying christmas presents and other necessities for tabatha houck (howk) and her family. they helped her load her car to this a

i want to bring in cnn senior political analyst ron brownstein and cnn political commentator ben ferguson. good to see both of you. >> good afternoon. >> hi. >> let's begin with you. real really, this is pretty nasty. how is it this race is defined by ugly words being hurled among the gop candidates? trump so far is out in front, but why does he feel he needs to respond or even pick on jeb bush? not really sure who's throwing the first punch, so whether it's picking on or whether it's counterpunching, why does he need to do this when he's so far ahead in the polls? >> great question. look, i think donald trump, one of the reasons he is ahead in the polls, for a pors of the republican base, his willingness to say things that other candidates won't say is proof he's not a politician as usual, and this is kind of that broader pattern that he's pursued. kind of more fascinating from jeb bush's point of view. obviously, the most obvious answer is these two men do not like eesm other and that is a big part of the explanation. i think there's more to it than that. if you look at the polling, amo

actually may not be a deal breaker for donald trump, and i asked our senior political analyst, ron brownstein to explain why. >> reporter: cruz is rising in iowa. he's con sol drating christians there who are about 60% of the vote. they could not advance far enough beyond that to make a run at the nomination. in 2012, rick santorum, exit polls in 20 states, he won evangelicals in many states. for cruz to go further than huckabee or santorum, he has to show he can reach a broader coalition. >> that's why a lot of people are looking at rubio as being a unifying candidate who can bring the republican party together, because there's been a civil war in the republican party for the last couple of months. tomorrow there will be the two debates. the undercard debate and then the grownup debate. what's emerging among the draw card, the top debate is another tier emerging, and that is donald trump, ted cruz, and marco rubio. >> yeah. it is interesting. it will be interesting to see who survives after this debate into the new year, see if they pare down the number of candidates standing on the stage. j

joining me is ron brownstein. so, ron, you know, brokered conventions.se are things that used to happen. >> yeah. >> this used to be the way that decisions were made, how candidates were chosen and now what we talk about every four years. >> when dinosaurs and party bosses roamed the earth. how long partly depends on how you define it. 1976 ford came to the convention against ronald reagan without enough delegates in the hand but in the end he was able to secure enough to win on the first ballot so it was first ballot. eisenhower against taft and also went through the entire balloting on the first ballot without getting the magic number but some after they counted that first ballot, tallies, one of the favorite son hand dates of minnesota pulled back and eisenhower got there on the first ballot and go back to 1948 and dewey of a candidate who had to go more than one ballot on the republican side to win the nomination. for the democrats, not since 1952. >> we like to talk of it every four years andi ivnevitably it' possible. why is it more possible? >> es

and what bernie sanders just said is tom bevin, executive editor of realclearpolitics.com and ron brownstein, senior political analyst and editorial power for the national editorial. did i get that right, john? >> close enough. >> i'm glad. it's christmas eve, thank you for giving me the gift of, it's okay, carol. welcome and thank you for being here. sanders is obviously slipping a bit in the polls, but he's raising a lot of money. donald trump is soaring in the polls and he's raising no money. i lump the two men together because both are popular. so listen to what stephen colbert will discuss on "face the nation." >> there's a populism in trump and the party leaders want him to go away, but the people decide he's not going to. >> so you like that. >> i'm not disagreeing with anything he's saying and think his proposals are a little -- well, more than a little shocking. but there is something really hopeful about the fact that, well, 36% of the likely voters want him, so the people in the machine don't get to say otherwise. that's the one saving grace i think of his candidacy. >> interestin

. >> so, let's talk about this with ron brownstein, cnn's senior political analyst and editorial director. welcome. >> good morning. >> so, putin's comments are interesting in light of the fact that many republicans admire putin's toughness. do putin's comments matter? >> well, first of all, there's really no one in the american political context anywhere on the spectrum who is comparable to putin. he's a reexpressive autocrat, who jails his opponents, who violates private companies. look, you know, i think it's not necessarily an endorsement you would want. but where there are similarities, they are probably stylistic and thematic. putin, like trump, kind of advances the theory of the great man of history who bends big global forces through the force of their own personal will. also i think offers a kind of defensive nationalism, which is what we see from trump. this kind of very muscular and belidge rant posture of the world but one that views the world duplicitous, dangerous and needing this strong man to defend the nation against that. so, in that way, they kind of overlap a little, b

official, van jones, and cnn political analyst and editorial director at the national journal, ron brownsteinee you. thank you so much for joining me. ron, let's get right into this. even if the raids had nothing to do with donald trump's focus on immigration, it seems this could be smart politics to try and take credit for it. >> yeah, for him, sure. first of all, merry christmas to you and everyone watching. >> for bernie sanders or martin o'malley, it's ease where i to criticize this from the left. if you are the president, however, it is a very different calculation. as donald trump demonstrates, there are some very chilly winds blowing -- towards imfwrags and immigrants, and those that support a humane and relatively welcoming policy have to also be clear that they are going to enforce the law because as you know, as your previous guest noted, ultimately you do not want to send a signal that there is no law enforcement. it is counter productive even from the point of view of imgrant advocates, and it encourages people to make a trip that is dangerous and shouldn't be made. i think the pr

ron brownstein thanks so much. tune in to cnn on december 15th. week for the final gop presidential debate this year. we will bring it to you live from las vegas starting at 9:00 p.m. eastern time. we'll be right back. coughing...sniffling... and wishing you could stay in bed all day. when your cold is this bad... ...you need new theraflu expressmax. theraflu expressmax combines... maximum strength medicines available without a prescription... ...to fight your worst cold and flu symptoms... ...so you can feel better fast and get back to the job at hand. new theraflu expressmax. the power to feel better.tm i am totally blind. and sometimes i struggle to sleep at night, and stay awake during the day. this is called non-24. learn more by calling 844-824-2424. or visit your24info.com. tand that's what we're doings to chat xfinity.rself, we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20. i

. >> for more on the president speaks our senior political analyst ron brownstein. thanks for being with us. if you're sitting at home tonight and you tuned in to that national address because you couldn't miss it, and you were hoping to hear something new about what the u.s. is planning to do to fight isis you didn't hear it. >> you didn't. >> why was it so critical for mr. obama to make this address from the oval office? >> the events in san bernardino were very disturbing and required, i think, a presidential responsend also this being an oval office address gave him the biggest concentrated audience, the biggest audience to make a case for what he is doing. he said a lot of things americans find reasonable about playing into isis' hands by, for example, a demonizing american muslims or a full-scale ground assault. the problem is the underlying premise of the speech was that what we are doing is working. and i think most americans do not believe that. i think most experts do not believe that. it lacked the sense of urgency that many people tuning in would have ha

now we have cnn political xhen commentators hillary rosen and tara set myer and senior director ron brownstein joining as well. now, this could be a risk for donald trump, but how does, he respond to this? is this, do you think, potentially a win for donald trump when he seems to really get away with a lot of things? >> well, first we have to recognize that donald trump is not running against hillary clinton. he is running against the other republicans for the gop nomination, and they love the clinton bashing. so that is the goal here, and that is what he is doing. he is trying to signal that he can do something in the general election that there is a no holds barred. hillary does not need to respond. i don't think that she will or should, because when the time comes, you know, if trump wants to take on bill clinton's administration, and the record for the economy, the record for women, and hillary clinton's policies on women, you know, more power to him taking on the greatest politician in the world, but right now, for trump, this is all about, you know, you know, red meat to republican prima

we have senior political reporter nia malik ka henderson, analyst ron brownstein, national journal's editorial anchor, and michael smerconish. i'm chris cuomo, you have the one only anderson cooper. a lot about the polls banning muslims, a good thing for donald trump. the move down for ben carson, a good thing for ted cruz. they are teed up to windchill as a tandom. do you buy that? >> i don't buy there's a breakout fight between the two folks, trump and ted cruz. ted cruz will be able to pare this, turn to wolf blitzer you want us to fight thing and i'm not going to do it. ted cruz will take a lot incoming, his folks are expecting that and i think he's going to take incoming from marco rubio, maybe rand paul, we've seen the inner fight between the senators. i think they're the marquee folks and there's some action there. i do think in the undercard in this debate, chris christie, rand paul, they're going to want to get into the act. >> are you saying ted cruz will attack the moderator? stunned to hear. >> yeah, yeah. >> wolf blitzer, who knows how to kill a man 15 ways with 3 finger

matt lewis and ron brownstein. ron, i start with you. i see this two ways. the gop has to figure out what they're going to do with trump. he's the guy at the top of the list. do they have the power or the leverage, especially with the third party looming. let's start there. >> that threat of the third party is something mr. trump has dangled at times and i think will be dangling all the way through every day he's in the republican primary. if he's not the nominee we'll be hearing about it until next summer. he has an identifiable constituency. it's not an implausible idea that he could run as a third party candidate and draw a substantial vote, a la ross perot in 1992. it's a legitimate threat. it's something a lot of party leaders have in the back of their head as they struggle to deal with a trump phenomenon that in the long run puts them at odds with the fundamental diversity and demographic change we are living through after most republicans recognize. most republicans believe they have to reach out to the changing america. most republican strategists. w

let's talk more about this with cnn senior political analyst ron brownstein. first get to what do you make of the really quick resolution of this overnight? is this some admission of an overreaction from the dnc? or is this some admission of wrongdoing, as they had earlier in the day, by the sanders campaign? it ended really quickly. >> yes. >> yes. >> you know, this -- this was -- this was a circumstance where everybody looked bad. what the senator's campaign did was truly egregious in the modern campaigning. the modern campaign world. the ability -- what it takes to acquire the data that the clinton campaign says was improperly accessed and what the dnc says was improperly accessed is substantial. this is kind of the fruits of their voter contact over months, and really is egregious what the senator's campaign did. on the other hand, the reaction by the dnc, i think, can fairly be portrayed as an overreaction. because just as that data was important to the clinton campaign, cutting off the sanders campaign completely from access to that, you know, is really

august, and joining us is tara setmayer, and active progressive sally kohn and our correspondent ron brownstein. and now sh, what are you seeing when republicans are embracing a potential president trump? >> my first thought is -- no! it is very frustrating, because i look at the bigger picture, and the long term, and i say that donald trump is not presidential material. every week, we are seeing him do things, and behave in ways that are presidential, and unbecoming of what this country represents and unbecoming of the oval office and hypocritical that the conservatives continue the support someone like donald trump in what he is doing. he has offered no specifics, and he continues to be an entertainer, but because he shows some strength what people consider strength and blunt talk, and it is such a contrast to what we have in the white house now, and people are gravitating toward it without thinking of the full consequences of what someone like donald trump would be as president of the united states, and as actual executive. i don't think that people thought it through yet, and it is starting

supporter of jeb bush and adviser to other candidate, and we have the national journal executive ron brownstein, and also jennifer granholm, a former michigan g governor, senior adviser and surrogate to "correct the record" which is a pro hillary clinton pact, and also political commentator jeffrey lord who is a supporter of donald trump. and certainly, an interesting scene unfolding here in los angeles before what is a presidential debate e focused on national security, and what do you believe is going to happen? >> well, in the view of most republicans, it is surprising that it is in favor of trump. >> why do you say that? >> because it is the nexus of immigration and terror that has benefited him. trump the core of trump's rise was the focus on immigration, and appeal ing ing to the repub voters who are feeling economically and demographic cli threatened by the changes, but when you add to the addition al mix of the terror and the question of whether or not the world is bringing threats to the homeland, i think that is what is allowing him to take off, and you will see, i think that the othe

and ron brownstein. gentlemen, happy christmas eve. good morning.g bernie sanders why he's make morgue of this data breach. i said st, is that a smoke scre or tactics or might there be something there? >> i think there's something more that might be there. every time something goes in whether a high level or low level it's all recorded. as if bernie sanders suggests they went to the dnc saying you've got a problem here, we're exposed to information we weren't supposed to have. what did the dnc do? did they talk to their vendor, fix the problem? or then bernie sanders thought maybe some of their data went wayward and that the clinton campaign had some advantage at some point in the past. they don't have the information to conclude that one way or the other. but it does make sense. i think we should all want this to be cleared up because this is not something that is supposed to be happening. and there's a lot at stake, including the privacy and personal political preferences of a lot of people who have tried to participate in the process. >> ron, bey

ron brownstein and senior contributor, mr. matt lewis. >> full house. >> see, see. >> yes, yes. >> she didn't is the like that. all right. so we had had this supposition coming into this, maeve, you know what, donald trump needs to shine bright on this stage. his numbers are good but he's not jumping up, then this poll comes out. despite all the outrage around his comments, he gains. what's your take? >> i think what the polls are showing us right now is a lot of volatility in this race. i don't know that we should read too much into all of that. but he's certainly is going to have to, you know, have a big night tonight. obviously ted cruz as well. you think donald trump does have a test here tonight, which is whether he can be well versed on foreign policy, give specifics and actually hold his own up there against cruz and rubio. >> ron, you're nodding. >> i have a slightly different take. i think first of all, the 40% roughly in monmouth and abc is higher than the nbc/"wall street journal" which is a very well respected publ

let's bring in senior cnn analyst ron brownstein. happy new year. thanks for being with us. ething we expected? >> it had been kind of floated for the last several weeks. they went through an initial round of scrubbing of the gun laws a couple years ago and concluded they could not take this step, but now have reconsidered. look, it continues a pattern of president obama's second term of moving aggressively to use unilateral executive authority on issues from climate and now guns and essentially daring congress or the courts to stop him. i think we'll see another confrontation like that. it's tough for congress to stop him. the courts are another question. >> peter, how does this change the dynamic of the 2016 race, especially when it comes to gun control being such a heat issue? >> it's really interesting. a couple election cycles the republicans were skiddish about gun control law. they didn't make it. they thought it would hurt them among white working class voters in the midwest. hillary clinton has really em brarsed this issue, taking her lead from barack obama, and so i

cnn's senior political analyst ron brownstein joins us from washington. son, start to distance themselves from the sfront runner. the question is is this the moment? has he gone too far? >> look, i think there's a dynamic here we're seeing. this the most intense version of what we've seen for several weeks. as trump ramps up the rhetoric over and over, seeing things that really no one since pat buchanan and arguably george wallace in 1968 have said in american light, he is deepening his hold on a piece of the republican party. i think it's been eye opening for the republicans how large a portion of their coalition responds to this kind of defensive nationalism that is increasingly overt in xonephobia and racially tinged messaging. there is a core responding to this. i do think, however, the risk to trump is that this narrows and kind of sir cup subscribes his potential audience. he was running at 46% among republicans without a college degree. only 18% among college educated republicans fourth place among them. he goes further and further down these veins.

. >> ron brownstein is a cnn senior political analyst and editorial director for "the national journal passionate. do you think that vote er shows the views of the republican party or a point that trump tapped into? >> i think it's bigger than people thought. san bernardino and terrorism further charged this, what did donald trump rise on originally? it was the hard line against undocumented immigrants. when you look at polling, you see a lot of overlap between the same voters who want a hard line on immigration and also the most receptive to the hardest possible line in terror. in your last cnn national poll, half supported undocumented immigrants. trump was winning half of those voters. the other half, he was winning only a quarter of those voters. no question donald trump has found a defensive nationalist, insular strain in the republicans, among blue-color republicans. it is big, as passionate as you heard. but it may or may not be enough to win the nomination. >> it's true, though, every time these controversies happen his poll numbers go up. they say with each new uproar a largel

i will plug ron brownstein as done some excellent work on just that, the real decline in trust in any large institutions. >> the post frequent question i received on the campaign trail last year was not how to improve obamacare and what to do about isis, it was why are you doing this? you have so many opportunities, why do you want to run for congress? that's not a good thing. they are saying, you are talented, seth. don't go to congress. that's a real for us as a government. by way, there are five or so americorps applicants for every slot. if you expanded opportunities, you would see that number go up. you would see demand rise. i graduated in june of 2001 from college, so when i decided to join the military, it was before september 11, and one of my best friends from college, the only time he ever got seriously angry with me is the day i told him i was joining the marines. slammed his tray down, i remember exactly where we sitting, and he said that's stupid, in slightly more colorful terms, and he walked out. and he felt that way because he felt so strongly about me. almost like a

anchor of "inside politics" john king and new yorker washington correspondent ryan lizza and ron brownsteinournal. so, john, there is all this talk now about whether republicans could have a brokered or contested convention. how likely do you really think that is? >> should we bet a trump steak? >> his steaks are high? >> there is a reason this hasn't happened in 60 years and unlikely to happen now but republican leaders are smart to think about it and if it happens because they look and think cruz or trump will win iowa or new hampshire and what happens in south carolina. is it possible? yes, it's possible. if you call the people that do this for a living and done six, eight, ten campaigns, they think, ten, 20, 30% chance of that. they are smart to think about it. you know how this works, somebody starts winning early and get big mo and other people run out of dough and the snowball rolls. you like that? jesse jackson and competing for awhile and due caucus won and democrats talked about when they thought the clinton obama race might go on and now president obama ultimately won. somebody m

ron brownstein, the national journalist editorial director and cnn senior political reporter nia malika-hendersonhael, sort of an interesting response here. i love this song. i'll put it out there. i'm not unbiased. i love this song. but is this the right approach? >> i think it probably is because no one on that stage who has engaged the donald thus far and tried to take him down has benefitted from it. so my hunch is that you know they're going to square off because trump will go after ted cruz tomorrow night. my hunch is that ted cruz the experienced debater and many have said this thus far, i think he probably faced more stiff competition when he was at princeton than he will with donald trump. he'll have a one-liner up his sleeve. and he'll be dismissive of him. and will not engage. that's where i think it goes. >> what do you think? >> you know, you've got two different potential lines of challenge for ted cruz. i think trump is actually the least important. trump will go after him on temperament and kind of style -- i mean, donald trump questioning someone whether they're too volatile to b

reporter maeve reston and senior political analyst and editorial director for the national journal, ron brownstein. what was your takeaway? >> it was a terrific debate. i've been covering presidential debates for a long time. it was crisp, informative and teased out subtle differences. the cruz/rubio showdown was center stage. trump was more measured than presidential i've seen him. it was the first time i thought he was calibrating his words against the possibility that he might actually be the nominee. you have the two front-runners in the race by the polls, donald trump and ted cruz, each largely repudiating the foreign policy of the last republican president, george w. bush and both trump and cruz making a strong case against the interventionist foreign policy that defined bush. being more assertive in their argument than those defending the intervention, marco rubio and jeb bush, primarily. >> john berman ended his piece with what is probably the biggest news. donald trump, under intense questioning, on the stage, to me with several follow-ups. he went to the spin room and said the same thing

i will put our sister, "national journal," and ron brownstein has done excellent work on just that, the real decline in trust of any large institution. >> the most frequent question i received last you was not how to improve obamacare of what to do about isis. it was why are you doing this? you have so many opportunities. why do you want to run for congress? that's not a good thing. if they are saying you are kind of talented. wide you want to go to congress? that's a real problem for us as a country and for government. and by the way, there are five or so americorps applicants are at the one slot today. if you expanded opportunities you would see that number go up. you would see demand rise. when i decided, graduated in june 2001 from college. when i decided to join the military was before september 11. one of my best friends from college used to meet for breakfast. dilettante he ever got seriously angry at me was the day i told her i was joining the marines. and he slammed his tray down. i remember exactly where we are sitting and said, that's a stupid, slightly more colorful terms an