i want to bring in ron brownstein, our cnn political contributor and analyst. and ron, you're hearing jeff zeleny read off these numbers, and we don't want to have this skate by too quickly. if we can show the viewers at home these numbers one more time. there you have donald trump at 48%, nikki haley at 28%. she has passed ron desantis according to this des moines register poll. ron desantis at 16%, and rivek ramaswamy not much of a factor here at 8%. ron brownstein, donald trump -- there's a story line about nikki haley versus ron desantis and of course we can talk about that. but what jeff zeleny was talking about a few moments ago, this poll showing donald trump so far ahead, a former president now leading the republican party with all the legal questions hanging over him being cast as a threat to democracy by the sitting president, joe biden who defeated him, this is a significant poll. and if donald trump can replicate this on monday, that is a significant moment because it is really going to make him by and large the front-runner in this field and somebod

. >> let's discuss with ron brownstein. ron, a lot happened today. what's your sense? what happened? >> yeah. look, ron desantis ran on a very specific theory of the case, that he was going to build a coalition from the right in. he was going to peel away core trump voters by running to his right, particularly on cultural issues. he was going to be the last alternative standing. then in their theory, the centrist parts of the party would have no choice but to rally around desantis, even if they didn't like his positions. that crashed and burned. he only won about 10% in iowa. he failed to crack the trump base. in the process, he alienated a lot of the voters in the center and left the room for haley to emerge. i don't think -- da na was talking about, there aren't enough desantis supporters in new hampshire or south carolina to make a big difference. the risk is thatdorsing trump reinforces trump. >> yeah. it was a week ago when ron desantis was sounding a bit cranky about members of his party coalescing behind the former president. here is what he had to say. >> so fo

let's bring in now ron brownstein, cnn senior political analyst, and senior editor at "the atlantic,". >> good morning, dawn's early light in iowa. >> still working on the coffee. >> 9th caucus for me. >> is this one the most exciting, the least exciting, there's not a lot of suspense? >> there isn't the engagement we've seen among the candidates in the past. we have asymmetrical warfare. on tvelevision. i think he spent $30 million on negative ads against the two of them. they spent 38 million on negative ads against each other, 1 million on trump. >> says it all, right? >> desantis has development an argument in the final stages. it's idiosyncratic, aimed at a narrow slice of voters. basically he's saying that donald trump can no longer be trusted to deliver the america first agenda. he attacks him for not deporting enough undocumented immigrants, not finishing the wall. no longer reliable on abortion. that positioning, i think he's going to see the limits of that tonight. people talk about his execution and that has gotten better. the conception of the candidacy left him with a nar

ron brownstein, shelby talket are back with us. that race is what we're focused on and the fact that ron desantis, which is the second coming, had the "new york post" front page -- the future, had hundreds of millions of dollars, had the infrastructure, had the organization, had the message, he thought, and couldn't even make it to the second contest, why, ron? >> you know, there were a lot of problems of execution, but in the end, i think it was more a problem of conception of the campaign that was flawed. you know, obviously, they had all sorts of turmoil in their structure and he started off as a very awkward and kind of stilted candidate, who did not interact with, you know, other humans well. he got better. >> he was on "x" -- >> it was a disaster, right. but i think the fundamental problem was, his theory of the case was wrong. their theory of the case was wrong. which was that they would try to run at trump primarily from the right, crack his support among the maga base, and then, if he was the last person standing, the voter

. >> joining us is cnn's senior political analyst and senior editor of "the atlantic," ron brownsteinso good to have you with us. thanks for being with us. good evening. let's look ahead to the iowa caucuses a week away. what can we expect? >> well, you know, the last three iowa caucus winners did not win the republican nomination. and ron desantis has essentially followed a very similar strategy that they did heavy local campaigning, real focus on mobilizing evangelical christians. but that has not dented what has been a steady 30-point advantage for donald trump, who is in position to really push desantis, i think, to the edge of the race here and set up new hampshire as the more viable opportunity for someone to emerge as an alternative to him. nikki haley looks stronger in new hampshire than desantis. in iowa. but all indications are that trump is in position to do much better in iowa than he did last time and to really call into question the viability of the desantis campaign, since he's put basically all of his eggs in this one basket. >> and we just kicked off the new year, 202

so >> joining me now from los angeles is ron brownstein, cnn senior political analyst and senior editor at the atlantic. happy new year, good to have you with us. >> happy 2024. it's been quite a year. >> indeed, indeed. so donald trump looks set to formally challenge efforts to ban him from primary ballot in colorado and maine. a likely is it that his legal team will win their expected appeals today and whatever been the political fallout from all of us? >> well, the colorado state supreme court, the main secretary of state, i think both of them make a arguments that donald trump's behavior, not only on january 6th itself, but the entire period after the 2020 election, fits within the definition of what the post civil war u.s. congress had in mind when they drafted the 14th amendment and the ban on insurrectionists serving in high office. having said that, having watched this court for decades, and particularly the way it has ruled on issues related to the political system, it is, rosemary, hard to imagine that a court dominated by six republican appointed supreme court justices would

let's discuss with senior political analyst, ron brownstein. ron, thanks very much for being here. i hope you'll pardon the recam. don't want people to lose sight or forget what took place. and we couldn't put it all in there. and we're still learning new things, ron, to this day. i want to get your reaction tom new january 6th footage that we played at the top of the hour. you saw that video as we were playing it. it portrays, it shows a jik rioters face to face with these republican members of congress, looking through the busted window outside the house floor. you've had four years now. some members of the house republican conference insisting that it was just a tour of the capitol. that they were nonviolent and so on. >> yeah. i mean, the rewrite of history, the attempt to whitewash history led by trump has been substantially successful within the republican party. i mean, they were ostracized those who have told the truth about what happened. and insisted on getting to the truth of what happened like liz cheney and adam kinzinger, and many of those who were initially critical

. >> ron brownstein is there in des moines, senior editor for "the atlantic" joins us live. good to see you. before politics, do what normal people do, talk about the weather. snowstorms, biting cold. whose advantage for voters staying home. >> wind chill is 45 below in des moines, at the outer level of what i've ever experienced. i actually think it benefits desantis if anybody at the margin. maybe trump a little. i think the weather is the biggest problem for haley. by definition you see in the poll, not only in the poll but in general, her supporters tend to be the voters most alienated from the trump era republican party. poll shows half of her voters are either independents or democrats. do they feel strongly enough about her to show up on a night that may be historically cold. this is the most snow since the early '40s. desantis has a serious organization, they will be at least contacting people, whipping them, trying to encourage them to the polls on that night. and trump has, you know, he has his maga base i suspect will show up as well. wouldn't be shocking if the w

. >> ron brownstein says there is a limit to which nikki haley will publicly address trump's characterould end up doing her a disservice in the campaign ahead. >> he has shown this week that she will go so far and now further in criticizing 2ru6r78g. what seems to me, the line that she will not krosh, is expressing a value judgment about him, with one exception. mostly she criticizes him either that he is too old, i'm more electable, or this week, you know, more than before he is losing his memory. she won't weigh in on areas that reflect on his character or behavior. >>> now turning to the brutal winter weather in the u.s. that has cost a growing number of people their lives. at least 82 people in 13 states are now reported dead. that is following back to back winter storms since the second week of january. >> the death toll increased sunday after both tennessee and mississippi reported additional weather-related deaths. at least two people are dead and dozens are missing in southwest china after a landslide hit two vil villages. >> rescue operations are under way. more than 500 resid

let's get some analysis with ron brownstein and legal analyst and former federal prosecutor elliot williams. it's >> what do you make of this move by the judge in the trump case? >> on the one hand it's bad for the judge to say he would allow something and then not but it would turn the trial into a circus and the judge was right in wanting to limit what someone can say to closing arguments. closing arguments are meant to sum up the evidence that has been seen, not provide a political speech and turn what would have certainly been a somewhat somber occasion, maybe not the right word, but -- >> serious. it's >> right it's supposed to be serious and it would've turned into a political speech and declaring war on the deep state and all of the above. it was the right decision to do. why -- what circumstances there would've been for somebody who was already represented by competent counsel to give his own crazy statement is beyond me. >> outside the likelihood that he would have wanted to use this to give what amounts to a campaign speech. he has said he is going to appeal the decision so, legal

joining me now is ron brownstein. take this whole thing up to 30,000 feet for us. we've been talking about the granular details which are important. >> i think the big picture is that the leading republicans are refusing to grapple with the most important issue facing the party in the country in this race is whether donald trump is fit to be president or if he's a threat to american democracy as we've known it. and the other leading candidates with only a few exceptions like chris christie, they have not of themselves into pretzels to avoid this issue. it has left them contorting themselves, trying to find a meaningful distinction with trump. >> you write in a new article in the atlantic today, the headline is republican opponents have never appeared to have the heart for making an all-out case against him. and you just explained the argument there. i would push back and say, in talking to voter after voter, who are still very much in the camp of donald trump and even if they're not sure, they don't want people to criticize donald trump, aren't they just doing what

ron brownstein, to you first.a strange primary season as we see just a very clear-cut leader here. how likely do you see something unexpected coming out of this early states? >> you know, it has been bizarre. not only because we've had such a clear leader. we've had that before. the situation we're in, where the candidates running against donald trump really have never seemed to be fully engaged in trying to beat him. they've all gone only so far and no further, either out of fear of alienating his supporters or a desire to kind of maintain their viability after him. look, i think what will likely happen in iowa and new hampshire is when we get to the end of that, after january 23rd, one, there will be a general perception that there is one truly viable alternative to trump. i think it is more likely to be nikki haley than ron desantis. i think she's going to do better in new hampshire than he does in iowa. but at best, even if they can get down to a one-on-one race, what that's going to do is set up an opportunit

for mixing your political and it is at the atlantic ron brownstein joins me now, always good to see you. let's start with desantis. he's out of the race of course, he's endorsed donald trump, what do you see as the impact of that on the overall race? >> i think the movement of voters is less important than the signal to the broader electorate. desantis support had dwindled in new hampshire, and south carolina, and while more of his voters are likely to go to trump then haley, there aren't enough of them to make a big material difference. i think the problem for haley is that this reinforces the signal sent by all of the other republicans who have been endorsing trump in the last few days and weeks, whether they are consolidating or capitulating, make your own judgment, but the risk is that it tells voters that the party has decided it's time to shut this down, some way similar to what happened for joe biden in early march 2020, when many of his former rivals unified behind him suddenly after south carolina. that's the problem and that there's a big block of voters that will follow his l

francesca chambers, white house correspondent for "usa today" and cnn senior political analyst ron brownstein, senior editor for "the atlantic." how serious is the weather factor for these candidates? >> yeah, i'm indoors in iowa. look, you know, obviously i think, you know, it makes it harder for people to come out, and it is at the end of a caucus, you know, i've been c coming to the caucuses since '88 and among many who have watched it for a long time there's been a certain perfunctory nature given not only trump's lead but the limited way in which desantis and haley have been willing to directly challenge him. it should as jessica said benefit the candidate who has invested the most in organization and desantis, i think haley also might have the problem that they are voters almost by definition are the ones that feel the least engaged and attached to this trump era republican party. but having said that, i think there is a sense here as there is nationally that her strength in urban and suburban areas might allow her to even surpass possibly desantis on monday night, but certainly she has

. >> earlier i spoke with cnn senior political analyst ron brownstein and asked him who he thinks will come in second in the iowa caucuses if trump ends up coming out on top. >> no one has ever had the kind of lead that trump now has in national polling and then gone on to lose the primary. you know, ron desantis is probably in the strongest position to come in second in iowa as kristen noted. i mean, he has put all his chips on iowa. he's visited all 99 counties. he's focused on courting evangelicals. but he like many other social conservative candidates who did well in iowa is polling poorly in new hampshire, and i think it is likely that nikki haley is going to do better in new hampshire than desantis does in iowa even if trump is still likely to win both. and i think the most probable outcome is that after iowa and new hampshire on the night of january 23rd, haley will have eclipsed desantis as the most plausible alternative to trump. then she will have a month to make her case in her home state of south carolina, which historically has been the pivotal contest in a republican prim

that is one of the many questions that we want to talk about with cnn analyst ron brownstein. and also jackie huson who is joining me here, both from new hampshire. nice to see you both. i want to read to our viewers part of a story that you have, a piece that you have in the atlantic and it is directly related to this. you say haley's reluctance to fully confront trump probably betrays what she really thinks about the odds, that she can rest control of the party from him this year. in this break the glass moment for trump's republican opponents, haley has made clear she will do no more than tap lightly at the window. i would say she has got her knuckles. she is wrapping. i don't know that she is going to break glass. >> so if you watch haley, i think, she is comfortable criticizing trump where she does not have to make a value judgment about him so her arguments are i am more electable, he is too old, i am younger, time for generational change in the minimum acuity has obviously, to play this week. if you asked her about e. jean carroll and she said what? an improbable answer

. >> out front now from iowa, ron brownstein, senior editor for the atlantic on who has covered many presidential campaigns extensively and jack angelo, popular radio conservative host who has his finger on iowa politics. many of the republican candidates have appeared repeatedly on your show need to know with jeff angelo. i saw you, was it last week, and it was much warmer. it was positively balmy compared to what you're -- >> much warmer. >> okay. so let's talk about ron desantis -- >> it's always been much warmer. >> it was the warmest winter on record and now here we are. ron desantis says he's built this great army on the ground in iowa and what's fascinating is i know you stumbled today across the turnout training session for team desantis and it was last night at a hotel bar. what's their game plan? i mean, what are they ready to do, jeff? >> well, it was amazing to talk to them after they had their training, so their game plan was to go door knocking and erin, look, there were a bunch of people here from around the country including texas and florida, welcome to minus 26 wind

the reality is that the republican party, as it stands on mass is not the upscale ron brownstein, he knows swelling or whatever it caused them red line -- >> red wine track, that's good. >> the wind track, and for that reason alone, it almost does not -- nikki ailey can condense the voting bloc but it will never be as big as donald trump. >> in 2020, it felt like -- we were together in 2020, covering the iowa caucuses and new hampshire primary. >> it's too much power for them to handle, too much energy. >> we broke the iowa caucuses. but it felt like very synthetic, because iowa and new hampshire for both democrats and republicans don't really reflect the demographic of the party large, the country are large. so, it's very -- also, i will mattered a lot for donald when he won in 2008. because hillary clinton was the front runner and also it was a question about whether a black candidate can win in a white state. that was huge. it meant something. but, the last republican nominee to win the state of iowa, to win the iowa caucus and become the nominee was a george w. bush. so, these st

that is one of the many questions that we want to talk about with cnn analyst ron brownstein and also jackie cue sin itch is joining me here, both from new hampshire. nice to see you both. i want to read to our viewers part of a story that you have up, a piece that you have up, in "the atlantic." it's directly related to this. you say, haley's reluctance to fully confront trump probably betrays what she really thinks about the odds, that she can rest control of the party from him this year. in this break the glass moment, haley has made clear she will do no more than tap lightly at the window. >> i would say she's got her knuckles -- she's rapping. i don't know she's going to break glass. >> she is not going to break glass. so, if you watch haley, i think, she is comfortable criticizing trump, where she does not have to make a value judgment about him. so, her arguments are, i'm more electable. he's too old. i'm younger. time for generational change. he's too old and the mental acuity is obviously coming into play this week. when you asked her about e. jean carroll, she said, who, wha