and i mean, ron brownstein, we have obviously, i mean, look, we all cover politics. we pay very close attention at the end of the day, the opinions of people that matter are the independent voters, right? and ron, we do have a little bit of a clue in terms of how they perceive this so when we asked who won the debate by party, it broke down this way 97% of democrats thought kamala harris won only 3% said she did not. 30% of republicans were willingng to sy they thought she won the debate. but look at that 69% of independent voters perceived it that way. >> well, look, i mean, in many ways, harris, the harris on the debate stage as the harris on the convention stage, she was still here than you might have expected i mean, she she projected someone who could be president and as i said before, i mean, donald trump's retrospective job approval has been rising because people have been seeing him mostly through the lens of the idea that groceries were cheaper me, they had more money at the end of the week when he was president would he did over 90 minutes last night and not

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our next guess, ron brownstein says, yes. this is what he writes in his latest piece, quote, when most people think about it the voters still trying to make up their mind. they probably imagine a person who is highly likely to vote, but uncertain about whether to support harris trump or a third party candidate could it both political parties, however, are more focused on a different and much larger group of undecideds potential voters who are highly likely to support for harris or trump. but i'm sure if they were vote at all. and ron brownstein, cnn senior political analyst, senior editor at the atlantic, joins us now, run for morning. >> i do think think there are a lot of people out there who look around and they're like how do you not know exactly right in his election, pollsters ask all sorts of questions trying to figure for out how many people are undecided in the election. >> and if you look at some of the recent national polling that comes out, they will go as far as saying roughly one in six people are either undecid

the state of the race is cnn senior political analyst and senior editor at the atlantic thank ron brownstein. ron, good to see you as always yesterday, we saw on friday, vice president harris go into the border and an attempt to turn the tables on trump by embracing the border security as a key issue. do you think this is the right move for the campaign? >> well, look, i mean the biden administration did make a significant policy shift and harris is now extending and even expanding that. it took i think the biden ministration a long time to recognize that the problem on the border had fundamentally changed from people trying to sneak across in the dark of night and kind of disappear into the population in phoenix. or la, to people who are presenting themselves for asylum and trying to get into the asylum process which as you know, is backlog of for multiple years and people could stay here for years while their cases are being decided. biden significantly change the standards by which people are now being judged for asylum or even have the opportunity to pursue asylum. and as a result, encou

i'm joined now by cnn senior political analyst ron brownstein ron, great to see you. these polls seem to show that the needle isn't moving much at this point. so what should the harris campaign take away from that we are in a incredibly close race in a incredibly small number of states, right? >> i mean, the two things that have happened is that over the course of really the century, the number of swing states at the two sides are truly competing for has dwindled to six or seven and yet those states are divided vertically exactly it half that new york times poll, cnn poll. it's a very good poll first poll in a while to show trump ahead. we'll have to see if it's confirmed by other polls. the cnn and cbs battleground state polls that came out cbs today, cnn, a couple of days ago they would extrapolate up more toward a narrow harris lead, but fred, the thing that i take from all of these polls is that consistent finding that harris is basically replicating the share of the vote among whites that biden got when he won in 2020. and she's still, even though she's improved

ron brownstein. hi ron. thanks so much for being here with us. we've got a lot to talk about. i want to start first with that bombshell report from cnn on mark robinson. does it change the dynamic in north carolina in the presidential race there already we knew it was likely to be a very close race. >> yeah. >> i think it does at least a little north carolina has been heartbreak hill for the democrats since 2008 when they won the presidency they're obama won the state, and they want to senate race since then, they've lost a succession of close senate and presidential contests. and there is concern among democrats that the population balance in the state has been tilting a little away from them with an influx of conservative retirees from higher tax. blue states. but this is the kind of development that could turbocharge the best thing democrats have going for them in north carolina, which is the movement of white collar suburbs outside of charlotte raleigh, as in other states, toward them. there is a risk, i think for trump who has praised robinson and, you know was instrument

and saying a prayer of gratitude, joining me now, from los angeles cnn senior political analyst ron brownstein, he's also a senior editor for the atlantic. ron. it's good to have you on. i mean, we talk a lot about a lot of things, a lot of political developments that of course there's sadly a political element to this because we are in an age of political violence. sadly in this country. but, but first, just if you can comment on seeing two incidents like this, two months apart, what that says about the state of political violence in this country mean look threats and attempts to political violence i become much more frequent in american life in the last few years. >> and of course, these are the most spectacular and horrific examples when you have a former president involved. but we're talking about everything from school board too low both governments to public health officials during covid, to the democratic governor of michigan. with it, we know the kidnapping and potentially assassination plot this society that is facing in many ways threats to its fundamental cohesion that we have not s

i'm joined now by ron brownstein. he is a cnn senior political analyst. ron great to see you. trump debated hillary clinton, october 19th back in 2016 and in 2020, he held a debate with joe biden october 20 seconds. so what do you make of the excuse this go round that he says it's too late and another factor which is that usually the candidate who is behind in the polls is the one who feels that they have to debate and it's not a huge advantage. >> but i think pretty clearly trump is trailing kamala harris in the polls. so all of these factors would argue for him debating. >> he did pretty poorly in that debate. >> and i think there's no other way to read this than republicans are reluctant to have another session like that you know, in some ways that's surprising because it's hard to believe that any debate on a second debate go as well for harris as the first debate did. but this decision reminds me of what one republican strategist said to me just before, even before the first time trump and harris got on the stage, which is that they didn't they didn't think that if trump

. >> well joining me now from los angeles is cnn, senior political analyst ron brownstein. >> he's alsoior editor for the atlantic. ron, as always, good to see you political violence, it would seem is becoming the new norm. how will this impact the presidential election campaign? >> yeah, i don't think it's going to have a big impact on the outcome of the election. i think we saw the first assassination attempt kind of fade as i political kind of motivator or a wedge. but really what we're seeing is a transformation. i think of american life. i mean, just think about how routine threats and actual attempts at political violence have become not only here at the apex of american politics with the former president, but with a local education officials, public health officials, local governments, a kidnap attempt against the governor of michigan. we have moved into a different era in which fitch, they kind of backbeat of political threats and threats of violence have become much more common and it does not seem we are in any way turning a corner away from this. in fact, it does seem to be m

joining me now from los angeles cnn political analyst ron brownstein, he is also the senior editor for to see you and glad that you're going to help us out here. i mean, look, it has been weeks now and most principally in the last few hours that i have been schooled by middle east analyst when i say that the biden administration looks impotent when it comes against not netanyahu and clearly the way he wants to press ahead in both gaza and now in lebanon, they said no, no, no, no, this has nothing to do with impotence that it's calculated so if we try and then reflect this onto the campaign, can you explain what's at work here? because this continued refrain from both harris and biden that there needs to be a ceasefire. certainly doesn't seem like anyone is listening yeah. look, this has been the pattern for 30 years. >> i mean, bill clinton left the meeting when that you would famously say, who is the blank, blank superpower here particularly with democratic presidents, netanyahu has a long history of kind of taking their advice and then depositing in and the trash as he walks out the

joining us now cnn, senior political analyst and senior editor at the atlantic, ron brownstein are on good to see you here we are just a few days before this debate. >> the last one we had led to unprecedented change in this race walk us through what you think is at stake this time you know, when you talk to political scientists are political operatives, the general view is that debates usually don't matter that much, except that sometimes they matter enormously and i was talking to one democratic consultant this week who said that he was once in a meeting with some of the parties, leading kind of number crunchers, what he called the quad sue work on election modelling and they inputted all of this data to try to determine when a presidential debate has mattered versus when it is not. >> and basically found there's no real way to predict having said that, i think we can pretty safely predict that this one is going to matter largely because voters are still pretty shallow in their impressions of vice president harris. she has made a very positive first impression, her favorable, unfavo

. >> joining me now is ron brownstein, cnn senior political analyst and senior editor at the atlantic. >> great to have you with us or isn't both kamala harris and donald trump were out stumping in battleground states in a desperate bid to attract undecided voters and they are dueling over the top issue for voters, the economy. >> cnn's latest poll shows that most voters actually trust trump over harris on this issue, despite the biden administration reducing the inflation rate faster than any other nation in the world. and in a national interview wednesday, harris said that trump's economic plan would invite a recession so what is the true story on the economy? who would better guide the nation on this critical issue and why can't the biden administration convince the voters on this? >> yeah. >> well, first of all, i think this speech really underscores the extent to which we are looking at very divergent visions of how the federal government manages the economy. true? even more than in 2020 or 2016 is laying out a vision of a kind of fortress america economy with high walls of tarif

ron brownstein. ron, good to see you i know you have written extensively about the issue of immigration what do you make of springfield, ohio becoming this flat? gosh, point in this issue right now well, look, i think it is giving americans a very clear preview of what a second trump term would be like in multiple respects. >> than the winking at violence that we saw in that answer. without a clear denunciation of, these bomb threats similar to the message he is sending with his promises to pardon the january some of the january 6 rioters and declarations that they've been treated very unfairly and then it is also a reminder that even though we have not really been discussing it very much in part because it wasn't a real republican primary contested republican primary he is running on a much more militant and aggressive agenda than he did in 2020 or 2016 on a lot of issues, but especially immigration, where he is talking about mass deportation of millions of people complete with internment camps and u

called them, quote stone cold killers joining me now from los angeles, cnn political analyst ron brownstein, he is also the senior editor for the atlantic. >> ron, i'm glad to see you and glad that you're going to help us out here. i mean, look, it has been weeks now and most principally in the last few hours that i have been schooled by middle east analyst when i say that the biden the situation looks impotent when it comes against not netanyahu. and clearly the way he wants to press ahead in both gaza and now in lebanon. they said no, no, no, no, this has nothing to do with impotence that it's calculated. so if we try and then reflect this onto the campaign, can you explain what's at work here? because this continued refrain from both harris and biden that there needs to be a ceasefire certainly doesn't seem like anyone is listening yeah. >> look, this has been the pattern for 30 years. i mean, bill clinton left the meeting when that you would famously say, who is the blank, blank superpower here particularly with democratic presidents? by netanyahu has a long history of kind of taking th

so i think stay tuned for some of that alayna treene, cnn, las vegas ron brownstein is a cnn senior political analyst and senior editor with the atlantic. he joins us now from los angeles. ron, as always, great to see you donald trump non-committed as to whether or not he will debate kamala harris. you said no today it was like, well, maybe do you you see him actually, committee and what would be the benefits of him entering and other debate with her well, i think pretty clearly after this first debate, he's losing in the race. >> certainly at the national level. and usually the candidate who is losing is looking for opportunities to debate and calling for more debates. the twist this time is that even before this debate, i was hearing from republicans that they did not think that they were going to win this race if they were going to win this race through the interactions between trump and harris, whether it was at the debate or in the daily back and forth, you know, in the kind of campaign dialogue republicans i think are putting more of their faith in just an enormous grinding operation in

all is joining us right now, cnn senior political analyst and senior editor with the atlantic, ron brownstein, it's good to see you okay. ron. you coined the phrase blue wall recently you were writing more about the history of the blue wall, michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin had voted the same way in every presidential election since 1980 save one that suggests what though ron, this time around? >> yeah, i mean, it is striking. these are states that are demographically and economically similar. and as you noted, voted the same way in every presidential elections is at except one. they've even voted the same way in every gubernatorial election since 1994, except one, they tend to move together. that's the history three but as you're noting, we're seeing something of a different pattern potentially this year, if you look at the totality of the recent polling, the cbs poll yesterday, the say 24 yougov project and the cnn polls last week, i think you look at them all together. they suggest that harris is opening kinda sorta a little so bit of space in michigan and wisconsin, which means, as you'v

and people like himself americans ron brownstein, let me bring you in. >> you have harris her capitalig about proposals specific ones for first-time homeowners,obviod israel's with polls in terms of the public being asked who they trust more on the economy what do you think well, she's not likely to completely eliminate that gap because it's based on the perception among voters that cost of living was more affordable under trump than it has been under biden, but she is narrowing that gop. >> and what this speech did, i think was really kind of lay out the depth of the divergence here. i mean, trump is offering, in essence, a fortress. america economic strategy of unprecedent tariffs that we haven't seen since before the depression massive deportation and immigration restrictions, and low taxes that was essentially the republican agenda of the 1920s before the depression. harris, i think, as you saw in the speech, linked herself to lincoln eisenhower railroad interstate highway system partnership between government and industry to a greater extent than we've seen really for most of the l

political violence all right, joining me now to discuss the state of the race is the singular ron brownstein. >> he is a cnn senior political analyst and senior editor at the atlantic. ron morning. good morning. thank you for being here let's talk for a second about this conversation that they are having on the campaign trail about political violence mean the fact that harris and biden both called donald trump. he actually seemed to have a relatively warm reaction to that. we see trump do that when he's, he's gotten it has had a personal interaction along those lines. but that said, that seems to be the exception in terms of how this is being discussed. we went from basically straight to partisan attacks after this happened. >> well, look, i mean, i think as is often the case people who would do something this extreme and egregious their views about politics don't really map, our contemporary political divides. i mean, they're not, you know, this person seems to be bouncing all over the kind of the political landscape. the previous case you know, the very young person was even more kind of k

talk about these polls we're seeing senior editor for the atlantic, cnn senior political analyst ron brownstein, and national political correspondent at political meridith mcgraw. thanks guys, meredith polls galore, john lays it out perfectly so we don't have to sum it up one more time. what? are the campaign's likely to do with this data today polls galore, we'd been waiting to see what would happen after the debate if harris was going to get some sort of bump after the square off between trump and harris. >> but both of these campaigns are going to be engaged in a kind of the trench warfare politically speaking, in these battleground states, as they spend a lot of time, a lot of cattle visiting the states, getting more voter data to figure out exactly who they need to be tailoring their message to with just seven weeks left until the november election. >> on one piece, you're looking closer at this, this trend among college and non-college white women in each state. what do you see? >> yeah. you know, as mitt romney would put it, we have cross tabs full of women hi, that jump out. >> but a go

you kind of go out a little t and think about the presidential race in north carolina, which is ron brownstein said, last hour has been heartbreaking kill for democrats since 2008. but it shows a very tight race there in north carolina how do you think this controversy might impact the presidential race? there? >> i don't think it's going to impact it at all. if you go back to 16 and 20, trump won north carolina twice, and democrats, one of the governor's race twice. so he's always been running in an environment there that was more favorable to him than it was two republicans running underneath him so i don't really expect much impact. i know. i think i saw trump did not mention robinson today at his event. it wasn't there. i don't i don't think he's going to be with j.d. vance when he's there next week. so you know, if i were in the trump campaign shoes, i think i treat it the same way. they're under no obligation to drag this guy around the state. but at the same time, he's a republican. trump's republican. so i understand what the democrats are going to argue about it, but that doesn't mean

battleground states this week, wisconsin on thursday, and michigan on friday our next guest, ron brownsteinf the atlantic, rights, no matter what else changes, the most direct path to the white house always seems to run through a handful of blue collar states and the nation's oldest industrial heartland, michigan, pennsylvania, and wisconsin ron joins us now from los angeles. all right. you said it once you said it, 1 million times, wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania can biden, move the needle for harris in these key states yeah, it really is striking as i, as i wrote that no matter what else changes in american politics these states always seem to be at the fulcrum when i coined the phrase the blue wall in 2009, it referred to the 18 states actually that ultimately voted democratic in all six elections from 92 to 2012 in 2016, trump famously dislodged michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin from the blue wall. >> biden won them back in 2020 when you look at the blue wall now, more often they talk about those three states that fell out of it, rather than the original concept biden's, i think great

naftali, the former director of the nixon presidential library, and cnn senior political analyst, ron brownstein, who is senior editor at the atlantic all alright, tim, we are going to take a look at the hillary clinton, donald trump debate face off here in a moment. i think it's really important for this discussion. first of all, let's go a little bit further back in time. you say that the nixon kennedy debate, and i think we can agree on this was really exhibit a for a transformational debate performance. let's play a quick clip from one of the four debates in 1960 i think the fate of world and the future of the human race is involved in preventing a nuclear war mr. vice president's your comment? >> yes, i am going to make a major speech on this whole subject okay. >> so that was a game changer for kennedy and historically we know that he was the clear winner. it was a new medium. talk a little bit about that, but also, if a candidate now in the here and now i can get that transfer informational effect. >> well, the reason it was transformational at the time was that it was an opportunity for

battleground state eva mckend, cnn, pittsburgh, pennsylvania well cnn senior political analyst ron brownstein is weighing in on what we might see during tomorrow's debate and what message donald trump may bring i think he may even reprise the famous ronald reagan question from 1980 are you better off than you were four years ago? >> he wants to make the case that people had more money in their pocket at the end ended the week the border was under control, the world wasn't as chaotic when he was president kind of memory holding the 2020 experience with covid harris, like biden before her really wants voters more to be looking forward. i mean, she wants them not so much to be treating this as a referendum on whether they think the biden years or the trump years were better for them. personally, she wants them to be focused on what the next four years would bring and that's kind of the turning the page and new way forward. project 2025. and not only that, but what trump calls agenda 47 videos that he's put out himself on his own website, which overlap a tremendous degree with project 20 2025 pro

so ron brownstein, who is a good friend of the show, he wrote the part of why wisconsin may be tougher for democrats. than michigan and pennsylvania are. a couple of reasons the minority share of the population is smaller and wisconsin than in the other two states and whites without a college degree, which is the core of the water gop coalition in the trump era. he writes cast about three-fifths of the votes there compared to about half in michigan and pennsylvania. this would seem to underscore why the state might be tougher for democrats than some assume absolutely look at the industries that drive the state, or at the end of the day, it's still manufacturing and agriculture and it's looking at policies like having goods made in america and protecting those jobs that have driven the state for so many years, whether it shipbuilding or family farms. >> so again i looked to repeat this over and over again, but it's it's such a razor thin margin here in this state that again, any constituency i should not be marred. >> yeah. >> jesse, is there anything as we wrap up here going on on the

ron brownstein a full house yes cnn, folks. >> thanks so much for all of you being with us, kara first to you, how to judge marshawn explain this decision to delay sentencing until november 26, jennifer shahade issued a four page decision here and he goes to great lengths to explain his reasoning behind it, saying that he's doing this in part to avoid any appearance that he is trying to influence the election to affect one party or the other and he also notes in this decision that the prosecutors did not oppose delaying the sentencing and he said some of their arguments and their papers actually led him to think that they agreed with delaying the sentencing. >> he says specifically he doing this to avoid any appearance, however, unwarranted that the proceeding has been affected by or seeks to affect the approaching presidential election. he also said he doesn't want to give an advantage or a disadvantage to either political party pretty so taking the politics out of the snow, we also saying that this was a verdict that a jury returned after hearing evidence in this case, over 11 weeks,

. >> the third being wisconsin and into new cnn.com piece, ron brownstein lays out why these states are so similar and how they can almost be viewed as one state. my pau, we are maphai, i mean, however really you want to say it, you could see they'd be connected here maybe by ferry. i don't know, but historically, michigan, pennsylvania, and wisconsin, they just vote together over the last 100 years, they've chosen the same candidate in 17 of 26 elections. and that includes foods the last eight presidential elections, as you can see, trump won the trio once in 2016 president biden in 2020, and here, roughly 50 days out from the 2024 election polling from each state consistently finds the candidates in a statistical tie. strategists in both parties consider wisconsin harris's best bet, and michigan a typical stronghold for democrats, a closer call. >> let's zoom in on the state. >> you'll recall that in michigan's primaries back in february, 13% of democrats kept aston uncommitted vote protesting biden's support for israel's war in gaza. of course, biden is no longer top of the ticket, b

ron brownstein. thank you both for being with us. harry, we heard donald trump cites some figures during this question-and-answer period with reporters you are rolling your eyes. what does the data show you? the scientific data showed you about the results of the debate on tuesday i'm a believer in science boris sanchez, i'm a believer in science. >> you know, we had that post-debate poll that showed that harris beat trump other polls coming out since then have showed the same thing. but let's just take a look at the horse race numbers right here. all right, so this is harris versus trump margin. this is late july. what do we got? we got kamala harris up by two augusts, harris up by four, and then we got our first real look at the post-debate number here. and we got harris up by five. now that's not much of a difference. four and five points, but it's part of a longer larger pattern that is the longer that kamala harris has been in this race, the better she has tended to do now, i will note that the reuters ipsos poll is one of the m