i respected ron insana of cnbc fame who now writes the market movers newsletters, someone who has been extremely right about the market, has also turned bearish. holy cow. he liquidated his entire market movers portfolio at the opening this morning after making huge gains. these are not bears who stay bears. these are bulls who decided to cut. i listen. i hear. but i do not believe any pullback will be deep enough to merit bolting wholesale from stocks. both men see near-term turbulence that could send averages cascading down. here's my attitude. it's been the same since this rally began. i have to sgradi igradually scat of your winners as we go higher so you can buy them back when we have that sell off that insana or kass believes about to happen. if you're not taking some profits and selling in the strength, you're just being greedy. please do not leave this red hot table entirely. the fact is because the economy is going from less bad to actually good, this market demands and commands your respect. and tonight i am giving it the respect it deserves. ♪ hallelujah you don't want to tr

ron insana, do you agree with that? >> yeah, i don't disagree at all.'m pretty bullish on the economy. i'm concerned about the stock market having run too far too fast relative to where we are in this economic cycle. having said that late in the day both deutsche bank and goldman sachs changed their estimates for tomorrow morning. deutsche's at 150,000 jobs lost. goldman at 250, which is below consensus now. so it's altogether possible we can get some better than expected numbers. what that means about the trajectory of the recovery is still uncertain but it's important we're heading in the right direction. >> i think it's important to keep in mind in terms of this trajectory and stuff, i know it's an issue of debate, are we m, are we w, are we any -- >> the shape of the recovery, right. >> because right now we are very clearly in the v portion of the recovery. >> the bottom leg has gone down. >> we are up. my models are showing 3.9% third quarter. >> wow. >> and i'm a conservative forecaster and i've got it tracking easily at 4 1/2%. >> charles biderma

that makes it so that you want to short sell and say, talking to ron insana. >> looking for about 3. >> but it's not rigorous to be only looking for 3 give the fact if oil is the main reason we're going up, that will delink as it did last year when oil went p. the issue is 67 to 70 -- >> that's got to be what it is. >> it's really hard. >> you get to the issue and i can't get a real answer to it. if real incomes haven't gone up and real prices have, huge inflation with he heducation an. where is the purchasing power going to come from? >> i don't know if you got an e-mail from our favorite ceo in the steel business, but the chart he sent out yesterday and dan is very active in terms of trying to make people understand, guys like me. where we would be in a recovery typically in terms of employment and the jobless rate here just dif verging horribly. >> but if the take the politics out of it -- >> you're purchasing power eroded by some inflation, doesn't include housing, is also saying because of unemployment, we shouldn't be at these levels. there's a lot of what regard as technical r

ron insana is thestreet.com's market movers portfolio manager as well as a cnbc contributor. gentlemen, good to see you. welcome. >> thank you. >> so 2/3 of the economy obviously quite important to getting any kind of recovery under way, and yet they keep hoarding their cash. isn't that true, richard? what's it going to take? >> oh, it's going to take small business formation, they've got to clear up the red tape so that small business formation gets going. they have got to make sure that businesses and the household sector can believe that taxes will not be soaring out of control in the second half of next year. they've got to keep that under control. and then they have to see that there's going to be regular normal cyclicals, job creation in the usual sense. but those two actually come before the job creation cycle. you've got to have small business creation first and foremost right now. otherwise the housing sector is simply not going to rebound as would usually be the case. >> ron, how do you see it? >> well, maria, this is mostly anecdotal because the statistical evidenc

joining us now to discuss, our cnbc contributors ron insana, portfolio manager of thestreet.com's market movers.. and also john kilduff, senior r vice president and energy analyst at mf global. i'm going and both of you guys, what is going to stop oil from going right back to 150 the minute the economy recovers? aren't speculators -- and i don't say that in a negative way. but aren't people who bet on this market going to pile back in and bid it back up? john, what do you think? >> i think 147 remains a steep high water mark, melissa. but i think 100 is certainly in the cards for the very reason that's you're talking about. in particular, for me, though, i think the china situation is being vastly underestimated. despite all the talk it even gets now, they're going to be sucking the resources out of the world. iron ore, crude oil, the whole lot of it, and they're coming on much stronger than people realize.e. >> don't they lie lie about their numbers, though, ron?n? >> the chinese? >> yeah. don't they overestimate what their gdp -- >> you realize the cnbc world is going to get nasty lett