ron insana is a cnbc senior analyst and commentator and senior adviser to schroeder's.ne to look behind you because behind you on the bookshelf are a number of biblical-related books, jesus, have you simply given up and taken to prayer for this market? >> well, actually, no, that process behind me after 13 to 15 years of study led me to agnosticism, and i would throw my hands up in despair instead, but -- >> that's okay you and i both knew and grew up and i think we're largely sort of disciples to go back to the biblical reference of the late and great john vogel he was fond of saying when in doubt, sit there is this one of those times where maybe your best move is to do very little? >> i think so, tyler we're in a global bear market for risk assets at the moment with the exceptions of commodities which e either in a super cycle or are benefiting from the supply chain disruptions or other issues like war, for instance that are pushing up the price of both raw materials and finished goods so i think in a bear market, it's not horrible to have a better entry point and the

ron insana is with us, cnbc senior analyst and commentator and adviser to schroeder's na. ron, tell me about this turn-around. >> well, it's a bit of a quirky report, jose, insofar as the number was restrained by a drop in government spending at the federal, state and local levels. we also had just by way of calculation, when imports are greater than exports, that subtracts from gdp, even if people are buying imported goods. so consumer spending was reasonably strong. it's kind of a quirky number. the market's not really taking it at face value. it's looking behind the headlines and seeing the underline strength in consumer spending, in business investment, were both pretty strong. government spending is likely to rebound later. business inventories, which were depleted in the first quarter, are likely to be built back up in subsequent quarters. so, this isn't indicative of the dawn of a recession. it's probably just a few statistical quirks that are going to work themselves out over the course of the year. >> ron insana, thank you so much. always clearing things up for us.

topic of an op-ed written by the next guest saying the realtime data changing the forecasting game ron insana is a senior friend. ron, welcome >> indeed. more so after yesterday. >> that's right. walk us through this yield curve conundrum here and what it tells us and doesn't tell us and why one yield curve, 2 to 10s, might be inverted a little bit but the 3-motto 10-year bills is anything but inverted. >> you and i -- i don't know how many times we talked about this over the last several decades but the work done by arturo astrella was really focused on the 3-motto the 10-year relationship and the 3-month yield is significantly below that of the 10-year spread arturro told me it is not the spread most closely watched by the federal reserve. and yet, given that the fed is expected to raise rates by a half point next meeting we could see a significant flattening of the curve and getting to the point where it's flashing a yellow or red warning sign about the imminence of a recession the time is between nine to 15 months arch is 12 could speed up with fed policy moves but i don't think we're ful

hope that inflation may be peaking are they right two market veterans joining us let's bring in ron insana thank you both for being here. >> thank you. >> ron, big question is inflation peaking does the fed with the moves making have enough in the arsenal to engineer a soft landing? >> i mean, i think the latter question is most difficult to answer at this point insofar as the underlying causes for inflation have little to do in my estimation with interest rate policy we see nearly a third of china's population in partial or full lockdown and exacerbating supply chain disruptions and more sanctions against russia pushing up energy prices inflation may well peak in the second half of this year but there are too many factor that is we didn't count on. the extension of the pandemic. the extension of the war that are holding prices up and keeping supplies of inputts limited for inflation to die down in the next couple of months. >> jerry, are we reaching peak inflation right now? >> we are at peak rate of change so the highest year over year number is probably printed this month or next but to