it one of the most complicated environments for the fed to navigate and understanding fed speak, ron insana is a senior analyst and commentator and senior adviser to north america where do we begin? >> this whole thing has been a rorschach test and you see everything you want to see in the fed statement and chair powell's commentary. i think it was fairly straightforward. they acknowledge a spending and production they admitted they're closer to the end than the beginning of the cycle and so i don't know what confusion there really is around this other than to say that the financial markets have responded appropriately and there's more room to take risk and bond yields have fallen and stocks have rallied and commodities have moved up a bit and i think to a certain extent it's not as nearly as unclear with respect to forward clients as people suggested wednesday and thursday >> if i had to boil it down to a nutshell, the ron insana camp thinks that inflation will normalize very quickly sort ever on its own or as a result of what we've seen because with what diane swonk was warning about last

ron insana hadit in an op ed, senior adviser to schroeder's north america. no, no, no, no, you don't, you have to acknowledge it's pretty good. the first half of the year is much better than feared, don't you think? >> with respect to the economy >> sure. >> oh, yeah. kelly, i never suggested that we're currently in the recession. the risk is down the curve and the yield is inappropriately inverted to the ten-year yield as the person who studied this most closely has pointed out on twitter all day today and the economy is still growing well, gdp is not in real terms, but the job market certainly is. although our colleague sarah eisen pointed out in the household survey, there are 300,000 jobs lost which accounted for the downtick in the overall workforce participation rate so there are a few signs on the horizon. what i'm pointing out is the federal reserve as it continues to raise rates probably needs to take a look at what's happening in europe because they could have a very, very difficult winter that leads to a broad and deep recession that will have som

joining me is lindsay riser in new jersey, tom costello watching the fed and ron insana.y this economy because on the one hand you have employment so low but you have got the record high inflation. as a result consumer confidence is down. so if you can give us the 35,000-foot view of what the fed is looking at right now and what its considerations are. >> ron insana is my mentor. whatever i say i learned him from years ago. wait until you hear what i say, right? >> right. >> the bottom line is that we are in an environment of 40-year high inflation. right? 9.1% in june. everything is more expensive. food up 10.5%. new cars up 11.4%. used cars up about 7%. it is across the board. go to the grocery store, the gas station, everything is more expensive. to get the record inflation under control the fed has one tool and that is to hike interest rates. we are on track likely for another three quarters of a point rate hike today and then see if that starts to slow the economy more. as you suggested already pending home sales suggest that maybe things slow. gas prices are also co

the fitzgerald group along with ron insana and a cnbc contributor and guys, thanks for being here keitht's start with you, i like to bring the bad news out of the way and you think it will get worse from here. explain why. >> it's not a rates problem like everybody thinks and it's a policy issue and many of the supply chain challenges have not worked their way through the system the consumers are feeling pinched and they have no problem there and retailers will not back off prices and there's still money in the system chasing comparative few services and quality stocks can the markets go higher? that's good news because many of the stocks have been beaten down and inflation bad news does go higher and the fed can't fix it and it's the result of policy. ron, it will have a good sign of the other coin here. >> we'll see about that. it's friday and it's coming up on a holiday weekend give us some good news >> the bad news is good news and we are suggesting that inflation is about to go down meaningfully and not only is copper down rather dramatically up 20% and the commodities and market-b

. >> i am joined by cnbc senior analyst ron insana. >> we talked about when gas prices hit $5 a lie anda big deal. do you share jared bernstein's optimism that we may see gas prices under $4 in most states in the weeks ahead. >> again, barring unforeseen circumstances and oil happens to be up $4 a barrel and that could be slightly problem attic and we've been down $33, as oil has moved $125 a barrel and those input costs that jared talked about mean that gas stations will, in fact, have some maneuvering room to lower prices going forward and the switch in oil prices to gasoline prices and it's also downward pressure over the last month, month and a half that we've seen in oil that should, at least for the moment have pressure to the down side and we're somewhere between summer driving season. >> because he's right, gas prices have been going down over the last month and is that a leading indicator to you in any sense that perhaps it's a good sign for, like, the recession outlook and that recession watch? >> well, you have to flip that around. it's a good sign for inflation and the quest

business analyst and host of msnbc's "11th hour" stephanie ruhle along with cnbc senior analyst ron insana. stephanie, let me start with you because interest rates have been going up for months. quarter point hike in march as you know, to 3/4 of a point in june. and this is a real tightrope act from the fed between getting a handle on inflation but not sending the and i into a recession here. talk us through this. >> i mean, you just nailed it right there. the fed has to address inflation. prices are getting higher and higher. and even though wages have been going up, that's irrelevant when everything in your life costs more. so what's the one tool they can use? well, it's raising interest rates. but here's why that's tricky because in theory, sure, you want prices to go down. but when interest rates go up, how does that affect you and me? well, if we currently have a mortgage, a fixed rate mortgage, it won't do anything. if we have a floating rate, a variable, it will go up. if we're out there looking to get a mortgage now, it will certainly be more expensive than it was just a few months

joining us is gary from delaware and cnbc analyst ron insana. >>> holiday cookouts are going to costbout that. >> cori, folks at beaches across the country are going to be enjoying fourth of july. hotels are up 30%. and food, your favorite fourth of july foods are up about 17% compared to last year according to the farm bureau. we have a fancy graph to show you. 36%, the difference in ground beef from this year to last year. pork chops up 31%. your favorite glass of lemonade may cost you more than last year. why is it? we spent the week in bethany beach talking to farmers, growers and consumers. fafrmers, of course, it always starts with them. that's where the crops begin. they say their issue is getting the pesticides and the fertilizer from ukraine. they say because of the war. cori? >> that is a really interesting angle i hadn't heard yet. ron, let's go over to you. president biden is under mounting pressure for soaring gas prices and inflation. amazon mogul jeff bezos slamming the president on twitter for blaming gas prices on big oil companies. writing, quote, it's either straig