joining the rosenberg research and associates founder and president david rosenberg.coming on the show from snowy rainy toronto. >> i would love to join the other 2 million canadians in florida. it is a pleasure being on here with you but thanks for the invite. jack otter: i spent some time reading a research and i will not sugarcoat it. it is kind of depressing. would be fair to sum up your thesis by saying after 7 years of distorting the economy with easy money the federal reserve is over correcting and the dramatic increase in short-term rates is likely to crush the economy. >> that the perfect way of putting it. i don't know so much about this desire to crush the financial markets, that is part and parcel of what is going on right now but it is more that jay powell goes into a second term compared to arthur burns, the fed let the inflation genie out of the bottle and this is about the embarrassment over transitory and if the fed is over correcting, that's the direction they are going to take this inflation story and grind it into the ground. if it takes a recessio

i want to bring in rosenberg research & associates founder and president david rosenberg and david firstall i've been a fan for a long time. you're like the brilliant comungun. your work is amazing, you're a straight shooter, so i saw this what you posted on friday, and you know, you're saying adding to the insanity of this report, the birth-death model added 110,000 jobs and when all was said and done it should have been a negative 227,000 jobs. now, i really believe that everyone in the financial media had a duty to mention this tweet let's talk about that for a moment, because the fact is, every time i hear someone talk about the jobs report it's still accolades and sunshine. let's start with this whole birth-death model. what does it mean for the average person out there and how did you arrive at a negative 227,000? >> well, the birth-death model is the having a baby. it's about how the monthly payroll numbers are constructed, so there's the survey of the businesses, but then there's an adjustment every month based on an estimate of net new business creation through the year. so what