the rsi made lower high at the peak of 2021 and making another lower high right now.he problem with that is that the divergences are often a sign of imminent reversals especially win a rally that's already overextended. and garner's view heavy government stimulus has enabled the stock market to trade beyond it customer trajectory. look at the blue lines in the chart. they represent what she thinks would have been the historically average trading world for the market where the fed didn't massively increase the money supply. say around 4,750 and 3500. thinks all the way down here when you see we're all the way down here. she thinks all the way down there. nobody wants to hear this but either through the passage of time to normalize the market something she says will take years not weeks or months or through a nasty selloff. maybe a little bit of both. garner thinks the market either needs to trade sideways for several years or it needs to lose about 1,000-pints before back to normal. my view. she could be right but how much more inclined to believe there's no normal to

>> if we look at those oversold kind of indicators, things like the rsi, that is not quite oversold,bove the 50-day moving average, for the s&p 500 it is still 60%. it wouldn't be surprise towing see some more of this churn and chop until we see more classic oversold indicators. charles: right. >> also noting we are in a tougher seasonal stretch that looks better once we get into september. charles: although i will say the rsi moves so fast these days, by tuesday we might be in oversold and also get from wherever we are now, 50, 60% above their 50-day all the way back down. this year we've seen some sharp moves and this is the first time it feels like the market has reacted this way? >> yeah, certainly the fact that we're starting to see what you might call degrossing or derisking across the board, you can see it in currencies and can see it in bitcoin and gold so clearly there is some rebalancing happening. i think it is the fact how crowded positioning got no matter where you looked. equity positions was crowded. you saw positioning crowded in some of the currency market as well. t

by the way, the rsi way overbought, same as you.would you reconsider and stay short. >> yeah. i think if we did get down to the 554 to-- 5400s, you can call this near-term trend the invalidated because that's right around that previous higher low. it's interesting to note we've fall then around 600 points from the high this morning -- 60 points from the high, so we're seeing the technical indicators. it's taking a long time to reach overwithout r -- overbought territory but a very short amount of time to reach levels below overbought territory the once we do enter those level. charles: right. >> that's just characteristic of a bull market, and i think that will continue tock the trend. charles: yeah. rip the band-aid off and get back in there. you're also bullish on tlt. that seems somewhat contrarian. >> yeah. so we're actually bearish on tlt. charles: okay. >> we recently, we recently closed our longs and just felt that maybe now, you know, with the fed the way that things are moving, interest rate cuts are actually -- three rate

i would also say we've done a lot of back testing, from a technical standpoint, where the rsi and s&pgod to 81 july 10th. >> we are down 10 to 12 times, and where he saw a drawdown -- average drawdown, and then if you look at just the returns when it's been strong over. >> you've seen, you know, a drawdown from that june 30th price. >> right. >> so we are just -- these things are out there. we're susceptible from a number of different per spect tichs. >> maybe a stronger finish to the year, but definitely not without some payback. >>> up next, more on today's mark sell-off. we'll be back after this break. (♪♪) car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com (man 1) can you hear me now? investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses can you hear me now? c

you can see the rsi momentum indicator going down overbought territory towards oversold bread last, went 50 day moving average it was back towards the april bottom not much to see there. the question is will this continue and be a brief blip or is there something more that investors are mulling over here where it can be a bigger correction. there are a lot of bearish divergence is bullying -- between -- beneath the surface. >> the stock is down today. it is just ugly out there. thank you so much. coming up, former u.s. treasury secretary larry summers weighs in on the 2024 race as kamala harris ramps up her campaign. this is bloomberg. ♪ how am i going to find a doctor when i'm hallucinating? what about zocdoc? so many options. yeah, and dr. xichun even takes your sketchy insurance. xi-chun, xi-chun, xi-chun! you've got more options than you know. book now. america's largest gutter and gutter protection company. leaffilter has over 150 locations and has been installed on over a million homes. we've been protecting homes now for over 20 years. our patented technology offers total protecti

. >> i will like to know how often you look at rsi or -- data when you are purchasing or selling a stock. >> the relative strength in the back? i have to tell you, i look all the time. i do not like to purchase stocks when the charge is bad. it's one of the reasons why do off the charts on tuesdays, i think it's incredibly important, kyle, because others do, and anything that's important others is important to me. mark in new york. mark? >> what is up, jimmy? what happened to i.r.a.? i was wondering -- my account at another time. >> well, you know, i prefer to let it run unless the stock is really sour because i just think, i don't want you to, investing for the long term in i.r.a. and i have to believe that what you saw in the stock will continue. otherwise, you take a loss and you take a loss but continue investing in your i.r.a. that's the best thing to do. let's go to nick in florida. nick. >> jimmy chill. question, when you help your children invest, is it more important to save up and give them a big lump of money when they get married or set them up early, literally an infant, pay

what is also interesting during these periods of severe overbought technical conditions, look at rsi,llback in the s&p 500. once we get overbought we're trading in this range bought chop. we've been in 50 point range for week 1/2 plus. technicals come down, we make the necessary move higher. that slow grind higher will continue year-end. charles: great point. we cone so date the gains enough to get a little relief and it is buy the dip again. you were bearish on bonds gold, west texas intermediate oil. that last one surprised me. it made a nice move through the 50-day, 200-day moving average. it looks like clear sailing to 90 but you don't like oil anymore? >> what our view market expectations have become two dovish. two interest rate cuts predicted for 2024, possibility of a third, rising 20% chance after third. i think the dollar will keep rising pressuring all three of those assets. on the oil front, i think a lot of geopolitical tensions have been priced in. you have a lot of demand optimism also priced in. i think there is room for disappointment on multiple fronts with crude oil

. >> this is one little footnote on this, this is the most overbought on an rsi basis to kick it back to you, on the russell, as it's been since 2017. just reiterate that, like, absorb that stat. >> we don't actually see that as a negative. we see that as a byproduct of a strong breakout and momentum. it would be unusual to see a breakout without that kind of reading, so, it is notable, in that it's different, but we think it's still bullish. we don't have any countertrend indications yet. regardless of what is driving this move, short covering or otherwise. and the vix comment for guy, i do think that this is probably the start of a more highly volatile type of environment, but that's not necessarily bearish, it just means we'll see more pull-back, more individual stock volatility, and in a way, an opportunity for active managers to outperform. >> we mentioned industrials at the top. xli, i think today, best day in a year. is this telling us anything about the macro? people were not impressed with delta a few days ago, and jb hunt's down aftermarket. >> for the first time in a long t

you can measure the market by looking at the rsi, not oversold internally.ving average , still at 58% for the s&p 500 and it usually goes down below 20% to a durable low. we think there is more to come, but you are still in a medium term that is resilient. back earlier this year when we had corrections. seeing the medium-term long-term view remains important. >> appreciate it, good to see you. this note just dropped from bayard, apple price target raised, new price target of 240, was 200, we believe that apple intelligence can provide a needed upgrade for eps growth more meaningfully. they had a difficult session yesterday with pushback from the south side, the upgrade. lisa: and here the ultimate question with that conversation we had this morning at kkr, it is a matter of timing, how quickly the ai technology and the other types of technological advancements can become profitable and people are doubling down to say that this is a bigger revolution than the internet. jonathan: the big tell, it's when i upgrade. if it happens in september? this note is about

countries, representing iran, muhamad mokhber brought with him a photo of the deceased president of the rsinearby are the sco dialogue partners, the number of which has doubled in recent years, and there are even more people who want to become them. alexey knopko magamed asaev, viktor kazakov andrey barookhin. vesti astana, kazakhstan. now about the progress of the special operation, russian iskanders launched a new attack on a military airfield in the dnepropetrovsk region. judging by the footage of objective control on the base. dolgintsev was destroyed by the mig-29, a vehicle of the aviation weapons engineering service. kh-59 missiles dealt a powerful blow to an oil refinery near poltava. it is reported that the pumping station was destroyed, and the pipeline and one of the tanks caught fire. and more impressive footage: a ukrainian armored car is blown up on a road that russian special forces have mined remotely. gun, shot! and this is how the geocinth crews left the ukrainian armed forces without strongholds and equipment. a nato m3 howitzer was destroyed during a counter-battery figh