let's get to rupert harrison.n in terms of policy is that the ecb rushes into something, that there is not enough underlying strength. what about the u.s.? >> it is possible, but it is very unlikely. janet yellen is unlikely to force through a series of rate hikes if the evidence on inflation does not come through. she is still fundamentally dovish. we have seen a regime change away from this very month by month data dependent approach we saw last year. we are more into a forecast based monetary policy, a little more familiar in terms of long-term monetary policy. they are navigating by their model. they think inflation will come. the phillips curve is still alive. we will start raising slowly. francine: the phillips curve seems dead. >> we have looked at a lot of this and a lot of detail. if you go back to previous cycles, you need to account for the fact that this cycle is very slow and long. it is normally only at this point that you start to get that inflation pressure coming through from wages. it always come